Episode 514 Forests in Cities

Episode 514 Forests in Cities

SUMMARY KEYWORDS

trees, forest, carbon, plant, people, sequester, cities, land, tree, cut, big, canada, growing, question, backyard, foresters, road, forested, urban, carbon 

SPEAKERS

Heather Schibli, Robin Collins, Michael Rosen, Sandy Smith, Peter Meineke, Metta Spencer, Robin

Metta Spencer  00:00

Hi, I’m metta Spencer. Today we’re going to do trees, and especially trees that grow in cities because I think that’s the most important project on my agenda today. And because on Saturday, there’s a meeting of the Pugwash group which I belong to, and I’m making a pitch for Canada’s public organization to take on the idea of promoting urban forestry is one of our big objectives. So I’ve invited some real foresters in who are going to help me sort out what people need to know in order to judge whether this is a reasonable proposal or not. So in a way, I’ve also invited all the Canadian public servants who want to, to join us and ask questions or argue with people if they if they have points of view. So I have some good good foresters here today, in Toronto here, my dear friend, Sandy Smith, who’s a professor of forestry. At least, we’re dear friends in the sense that I use you all the time, whenever an issue came at us. I appreciate that. And in Quebec is Michael Rosen, who is retired as an arborist. But he spent many years as the president of Tree Canada, a very worthy organization. And in Guelph is have Heather Schibli, who is a landscape architect and an ecologist, and she is an expert on me and lucky for us. And since the wonderful thing that the Miyawaki people do best is by teaching people how to make wonderful forests in small pieces of land in the city, the size of your bathroom, you can have a little forest. So I’m going to be drawing all these people to give some reflections on the potential value to Canada of investing in a big project to try to encourage millions of us to go plant some trees, especially in the cities. So let me let me say where I’m coming from, because a few years ago, I read an article – everybody in the world read that article – by an outfit the Crowder group in Switzerland, that went out and counted trees by various methods. They estimated that there are about 3 trillion trees on the planet today, and that we need about one more trillion in order to reduce global warming. Well, everybody got on the bandwagon, and indeed Canada promised to to plant an additional two billion trees. Well, that sounds really impressive. But if you realize a trillion is 1000 billion, and Canada is going to produce plant 2 billion, I’m sorry, two out of 1000 is not all that impressive, but we’re going to have to work hard to even make that commitment, because it’s not happening. Now, the question is, where do you put all those trees is the room for an additional trillion trees? Well, the Crowder people said yes, but they were counting the idea of having them growing in the Arctic, which is a very bad idea, because we know that the growth of trees in the Arctic has a net warming effect rather than cooling effect on the planet because of the albedo effect. That is,  the trees are darker than the snow around them, and therefore, they warm things. Also, Crowther said, Well, we’re not counting the space in cities or the farms because we got to leave agricultural land for farmers and city people to live. Well, that’s a bad idea. In my opinion, that’s just where we need to put trees — in the city because trees need to be cared for a couple of years in order to have a good prospect of survival. And that means that people have to look after them if you really want to improve the survival rate of your trees. And want to have trees where the people are, and besides, people need trees. And so we can do various things that use the agricultural land to plant them around. There are all kinds of great ways of using farmland without depleting your agriculture. And but the main thing that I think is: Let’s plant trees along the roads or anywhere where people go, and so that’s that was my starting point. I started calculating could we put 2 billion trees along in city areas where the Crowder people hadn’t even counted? Well, I think we need them. Cities are heat traps, and we need to have trees that will actually help cool the cities. In fact, the reality is that the amount of co2 that a brand new tree will capture isn’t I’m very much within 20 years. It takes a while for these trees to be grown up. So the most important thing we do to improve the quality or the amount of co2 in the atmosphere would be to save the trees that we already have. And big trees. We want to do that for sure. But we also need find ways in cities. Cities can be something like 10 degrees hotter than the countryside around them. So the trees can begin to cool the cities, even before they actually do much for us in terms of sequestering carbon. So there’s a lot of room in cities where we could plant trees, I think, especially lawns.  I would say, Let’s plant trees, really along both sides of every street and every road in the in Canada if we can. And we have to calculate how closely we can plant them together, and so on. But you’re not going to want to have a car within five or 10 years because there’ll be electric driverless taxis that will come and pick you up and drop you off, but they don’t park. So you don’t need all those parking spots. There are something like three or four parking spots for every car in Canada, which is going to free up an awful lot of space, if we put our minds to making sure that the law says we have to plant trees in them. So we can take these parking spots and turn them into forests. And for that, I think we want to ask somebody who knows how to make Miyawaki forest because they’re a wonderful use of small space in cities. We could get high school kids to go out and church groups and the yoga classes and all kinds of people to turn out. The government could say, okay, meet me at the corner of so and so at 10 o’clock. And we’ll have spades and trees and water and all the things you need to plant trees. So expect to spend an afternoon planting trees. And I calculated  – just my own crazy estimates as a completely uninformed person – I figured out that we could probably plant about a billion and a half trees this way, in addition to the ones that the government in Canada has promised to be planting in remote areas.They have a service that collects seeds, so we could get them to collect seeds and give trees to us and figure out where where we need to plant the right kind of trees and so on. This is not a radical idea, because I know that China did something like that with the Loess Plateau, which is home to 50 million people. And it’s been done in many other places. Stockholm planted 40,000 trees a few years ago, and they’re doing fine, thank you very much. So this is my my proposal that I want to get the Canadian Pugwash group to to support – at least to support a study of the idea and then we could do a real life cycle calculation of how many trees we can plant and how much co2 we can sequester that way and so on. Sandy, why don’t you start off.

Sandy Smith  08:19

I’m very supportive of planting trees. I work in forestry –always. For as long as I can remember, I’ve worked in forests. I started in the north and the boreal spent 15 or 20 years and now, I spent the last decades down here and based in Toronto, but urban forests, Southern Ontario. And I’m the type of person who defines an urban forest as anything south of the French River for those who are in Ontario.  I always have been supportive of planting trees. The problem is that we tend to get focused on the numbers. And I think trees are so much more than the number and you know, then we get into the semantics: Is an acorn actually a tree if it hasn’t sprouted yet? And is a seedling a tree or is it just the big old ones? I’m going to say we need as people to develop this a better relationship with trees because I think despite being Canadians, and thinking of ourselves as a forested nation, I think we tend to think of those trees as being somewhere else — someplace we go, to the cottage or hiking and camping or Banff National Park. It’s our vision, but I think we have a hard time actually relating to the everyday challenges of trees. There’s huge benefits that you know, in the last 10- 20 years it’s been getting more clearly quantified: the ecosystem, services but people still, when I speak with them that aren’t foresters, focus on the disservices — about how they have to rake up the leaves. And they have problems with the walnuts that drop and all these issues, which is about the relationship with nature, which we know is really important. So, my big point too, is yes, plant trees, but you do have to look after them. And it’s not just the first couple of years if you’re in an urban environment. And I include agriculture in that urban environment, because I think there are lots of opportunities there. But you do have to look after them.There’s lots of opportunity on private land. And I’ve been working with some corporations in the city in institutional lands; 60% of the urban forest is owned privately, whether it’s by individuals in their backyards, or institutions. And so I’ve been working with corporations to try and think about better ways to plant trees. So yeah, I’m on board.

 

Metta Spencer  11:13

Terrific. Okay. Michael Rosen. We haven’t really had much of a conversation about this yet. Is my proposal crazy?

 

Michael Rosen  11:22

Mmm hmm. That’s a kind of a planted question. Anyways. Metta. First of all, I want to congratulate you. I read most of the document you sent. I didn’t read the whole thing. But first, I looked at it and thought 36 pages Wow, that’s a lot of pages for me to read. But it’s really well done. And it’s really interesting. And, and yeah, the research is really good. And I liked the approach, it would appear that we need a lot of trees in our cities. Like Sandy mentioned, we’re blessed — or not blessed, depending how you look at it — with lots of trees, outside of our city, and we were the were the forest nation, but we’re not really a forest people. I spent a lot of my career as a forest. I’m a trained as a forester as well as an arborist. So, a lot of the emphasis was, well, if you want forest, you know, if you’re in Toronto, go a couple hours out of town, you’ll get all the forests you need. And then it became a trend recently, although it was reversed a bit with a pandemic, that people actually don’t seek their forest experience from going to a big provincial or National Park. Most of their forest experiences are the ravine, or it’s the backyard, or it’s the line of trees on the street. So it’s a nice thing that Canadians can think that they have all this forested area, but honestly,  the number of people who actually venture out there is kind of limited, although, the pandemic kind of changed that.  I’m not really sure.Algonquin Park is putting all these limits on who can visit the park. And some other parks are like that. Now,  I didn’t think the usership of those parks was serious. Well, the restrictions are more on the camping areas, I think, than anything else. But all this to say I guess you have a point in that the cities matter with regards to trees, unfortunately. Our cities were not created with trees in mind at all. They were created to facilitate the automobile. That’s, that’s the bottom line. So everything we do with trees in a city now, it’s a total retrofit. And it’s really expensive. And logistically, it can be really, really difficult. Take Toronto, say you’d land at Pearson, and  look around at Pearson and it’s like 80 –90% hard surface. I look at all this horrible, hard surface infrastructure that was created, not just for airplanes, but for automobiles. And my mind goes to when this can be nice with trees. Trying to put the trees in that area is is incredibly difficult, but but we’re not here to talk about what’s difficult. We’re here to talk about what’s possible, so I’m not I’m not going to dwell on that. Maybe this is where Heather comes in. It is possible to plant trees in hard surfaces. It just takes the right type of tree and lots of work to prepare the land and that sort of thing. But the argument around carbon sequestration in urban areas was always a tough sell for me, actually, because if you’re sequestering carbon with trees, there’s better places in the city to do that. Actually, your paper talks about it, you know, all this abandoned highway land. Although reforesting extra highway is problematic, we use a lot of salt and stuff that trees really, really don’t like. So that’s a  whole other book. But that can be easier than trying to rip up Dixon road to put in trees, that kind of thing. And then the other thing I’m just thinking of is that if we’re gonna talk about carbon sequestration,  the city is not the best way to do it. I think a better argument to use in the cities is not one of purely obviously carbon sequestration, but all the other benefits that trees can give. Yes, trees will sequester carbon in a city. Sometimes they don’t do it a lot because the tree has a hard timeestablishing itself and growing. And we all know these studies of what the average life of a city tree is. And it’s really low. I don’t know, it used to be seven to 10 years sort of thing was the average life of a of an urban tree. So how much carbon can you really sequester within seven or 10 years, you know, in a city? But if the argument is around the other benefits that are provided by urban trees, in addition to carbon sequestration, I think that’s a better sell, if you will. Does any of this help you at all, Metta?

 

Metta Spencer  17:26

Yeah, yeah. Well, the whole point of my proposal to Pugwash is that they study the issues and find out all the downsides and all the problems and what makes sense. And maybe some things don’t make sense so we’ll just change the proposal accordingly. So for that, I need a lot of good advice. And I’ll probably come back to both of you. But let’s get to Heather.

 

Heather Schibli  17:49

I agree fully with what Sandy and Michael are saying. There are issues in terms of where to place trees in urban settings because of utilities and problems with road salt, not enough soil volume for different areas and air pollution and all of that.  I’m a landscape architect, terrestrial ecologist and consulting arborist. I think, as an ecologist, why I find Miyawaki forest methods so exciting is that it’s looking at more of the community approach, as opposed to individual trees. So it’s a real shift away from kind of this legacy of colonial European landscape management practices, which is grass and an individual tree plunked kind of in between it, kind of harking back to the upper crust of of Europe when when North America was first colonized.  I think that’s totally antiquated. It’s outdated. And it’s not in keeping with where we need to be right now, especially given climate change. And also the general disconnect that our culture is experiencing between people, but also, especially between people and the land that we live on. So looking at a method of recognizing that trees, just like humans, are social creatures and evolved to live with other animals and plants. This kind of method of bringing, you know, the ones that we’ve done in Ontario, we loosely follow the methods so we don’t call it a Miyawaki forest, we call the “mini forest”  just because there’s some recommendations that come out of India that don’t necessarily fit the Canadian context, from our experience. But we do try to aim at putting an assemblage of species together that historically have evolved together. So it’s recognizing those communities that we see when we’re out inventorying forests in southern Ontario, central Ontario, Quebec. And it’s about nurturing that soil. Bringing that kind back to life and recognizing that we’re only seeing half of the reaction — mostly above ground, whereas most of what’s happening is below ground. So if you can bolster that and add health and diversity into that, there’s a better chance for this community to survive. So there’s a lot of opportunity to include these kinds of plantings in traditionally forested landscapes. I’m not proposing that we put these forests in Saskatchewan or other areas where it’s really tall grass, prairie and other types of ecosystems, but to fill up the landscape that’s been kind of devoted to grass. At these places where the only time anybody ever walks over the grass is to mow it, but it’s not used for anything else. So what you were saying, using these empty kind of forgotten spaces in between highways or along these shopping centers, strip malls or beside churches, in the back end of school yard — wherever there is an active place that’s not being utilized for something else, we should really be filling it back with trees, because that’s what this landscape wants to revert to anyway. And then we really need to get past this perception that our own personal properties are not part of the larger context. Because your backyard and your front yard are part of this landscape. And so, as stewards of the landscape, we should be really treating that in respect to other species. By planting native species, they are species that can can handle the kind of conditions that that site offers. I planted a mini forest in my backyard, and there’s close to 300 trees and shrubs and I’m downtown in Guelph, Ontariom so it’s a pretty small plot. In my front yard I have  Norway maple from the city.  I have a shade garden and a lot of woodland species that can kind of handle the shade of Norway maple. And I will use those seeds,  and populate my backyard once the seedlings in the back are big enough to support a shaded backyard. So I’m encouraging people to plant these in their back yards, because you’re not dealing with utilities and those kinds of issues in your back yard. And in your corner, go for it. This landscape needs to be forested again. Thank you. Okay, we have a couple of my friends here with us from the Pugwash group and I want to make sure that they both have an opportunity to ask questions or introduce their own concerns. Robin Collins?  

 

Robin Collins  22:57

 I would agree entirely that urban tree planting is a good thing in and of itself. But I would also agree that it will not be a major sequestration solution, just because of the scale. That doesn’t mean that the project isn’t worthy. But if the focus is on carbon sequestration, then other tree opportunities may be the ones to focus on. Michael’s comment about the average life of the urban tree — seven to 10 years or whatever he said, that’s news to me. But that’s really interesting. That also leads to where’s the best dollar for afforestation and reforestation.

 

Metta Spencer  23:59

Thank you. Let me ask if Peter Meineke has an issue.

Peter Meineke  24:03

Oh, hi. Sorry, my camera isn’t working. So you’ll have to put up with this talking black space. There’s always concern that people have had about using trees for removing carbon from the atmosphere. But I have a couple of other concerns. I have a lot of trees in my backyard, but I just lost a few of them during the last big storm we had. And when you look at the hurricanes and the effect of this strange law here in Ottawa that we can’t even book put a windmill in our backyard because of the problem with falling over or something like that. But we certainly have a lot of trees that have done a lot of damage to houses. And I guess that’s one of my concerns if we keep adding them. Maybe we’ve got better trees to do this with. I’m fascinated by bamboo. And are there other types of trees that actually absorb carbon faster than maples or whatever we normally have? 

Metta Spencer  25:33

I’ve heard hemp. 

Peter Meineke  25:36

Yeah, hemp. The idea of using people to look after the trees, I think is a great idea. I wonder if anybody would like to comment on this recent report concerning the the federal government’s analysis of the effect of trees. They claim that really, that the forests are not doing the job that the federal government says it’s doing.

Sandy Smith  26:08

I haven’t read this report specifically. So I can’t comment on it. 

Peter Meineke  26:17

And I’ve only read the news that came out this morning on it.

Sandy Smith  26:21

Mike, you might know, runner. In forestry is it’s really hard to make a complex topic simple. And to come back to carbon sequestration, I do think they’re important. And it’ll vary. Ask any scientist, and they’ll say, it depends on where they’re growing, and the species and age. And Mike, I might say, just to respond to a little bit that Robin picked up on the age of an urban tree. I think that’s older data that came from trees that we’re putting into planters on the streets,  so it’s not your average urban tree. As I said, 60% of the trees are on private land. It really is about root volume. If you look after your trees, you can have them reach a full size and live for a long time I’m thinking of Europe where you look after trees in very urbanized areas through pollarding, or other arboricultural systems so you can get them to sequester carbon. But for me as a forestry person, a professor and someone who works in the area? It is about multiple values — it’s the complexity of a tree that provides its great value. Yes, it does sequester carbon, of course, but it also does all these other services that society in this time in this place really seems to need. And to speak to Robin’s point, even lecturing to students this morning, just the relationship of people with the land and nature. There are situations where our boreal forests are going to release more carbon than they sequester. That’s the nature of the forest dynamics. But I don’t see where that negates the need or the desire or the benefit of putting in more trees.

Metta Spencer  28:46

Well, at least we know that they do cool. When we’re dealing with global warming, we’re actually talking about how much comfort there is for people walking around in the cities. And these trees can reduce the average temperature of a city by several degrees.

Sandy Smith  29:08

Probably so, in the shade versus the sun. I’ve done this several times living downtown at Spadina and College, and it’s 10 degrees cooler in the shade.

Metta Spencer  29:19

Which is worth worth a lot right there. That’s true. And I have a question about the size of the trees, I’m arguing for urban trees, but at the same time, obviously, the important thing is to be able to sequester carbon too. And that means that we need to protect big trees. Now what I’m wondering is, we see all these pictures of forests that have been chopped down, clear cut, and and it breaks your heart. You see these gorgeous old stumps of trees that are 10 feet in diameter — trees that have been made into toilet paper or something. It’s an egregious offence against everything we should care about. But what I’m wondering is, can’t they do a better job of removing dead trees from the forest, because clearly, when a tree has lived its full life expectancy, then of course, you want to take the wood and use it for something, especially if you can use it to store carbon indefinitely by making a building or furniture or something from it, so that it has useful value and doesn’t just get burned up to send that co2 back to the atmosphere. Is there a better way of logging that doesn’t do as much damage to the whole forest than what I’ve seen in the horror stories that I’ve been watching?

Michael Rosen  30:56

The forests are being logged according to a “silvicultural system.”  There are many silvicultural systems in place. And it’s all dependent on the type of forest, the shade tolerance of the trees. In nature, many of these forests that are clear cut, are actually shade intolerant. They are trees that in nature would have grown back after catastrophic natural events such as wildfire, insect infestation, or wind events. The clear cutting, with standards and in small, small patches, is an attempt, if you will, to imitate what nature would have done anyway. That being said, if you have a forest, that’s more of what we’re used to, in the southern parts of, say, Ontario and Quebec and all aged forests, then obviously, that type of silvicultural system does not make any sense and you’re forced to implement something that’s more of an all age system, which we would normally call a selection type system. And then, for some species of trees, not maples, and not beech, for instance, but more like your pines and your oaks, they are actually intermediate in tolerance, and it’s all about shade tolerance. And in those cases, there’s another silvicultural system that’s widely used, and it’s called the shelterwood system, which resembles something in between selection and clear cutting. So the way I look at it, Metta, is that it’s better than it ever has been, and that the standards are being applied now that are all party to a lot of third-party certification. There’s a number of systems that are set up — FSC and SFI and CSA and a bunch of others — which actually apply standards to the way forests are managed and give these forests a certification. Now, a huge percentage of Canada’s forests are subject to that third-party certification. So things that look bad to the human eye can actually just be –and I’m not excusing it, I’m just being real. I’m just stating that what’s reality can be a temporal disruption, and that in the long term,  forests are dynamic and replace themselves accordingly. Clear cutting is often equated to deforestation, but the two have actually nothing to do with each other. Because clear cutting is actually a recognized silvicultural system that when applied in the right way will regenerate force in perpetuity. In other words, clear cut forests will actually develop back into forests. Deforestation is something we see when we actually change the land use. So urban areas that people live in, farming, farmland, road construction, mining, that sort of thing, is a conversion from what was previously a forested use to something else. And that is really true deforestation. So in fact, in Canada, the amount of land that’s actually “deforested” is relatively small, and it’s limited to urbanization and agriculture and road construction — that sort of thing. Okay, but that being said, you mentioned one other thing about dead trees. And that’s a that’s an interesting one as well, because I consult with the residents and landowners on managing their woodlots and their forests and one of the biggest mistakes  a lot of people assume when they manage their forest is that they’re going to cut the dead trees. That’s a big piece of forest management and I’m forced to point out that it is not actually the best management strategy, because actually more biological activity in a dead tree than a live one. As far as biota goes, as far as insect mass and bird production, and all those sorts of measures, dead trees support much more biomass, much more biota than a live one. So, in fact, it’s a bit of a mistake to walk into a woodlot and cut all the dead trees. Many of them should be left for wildlife. And it’s really the live trees that warrant the cutting to manage properly, to let more light into the forest floor, to allow more age classes of trees to develop. Because, that’s part of a sustainably managed woodlot. Now, I’m not advocating that we do forest management on 100% of every forest everywhere. Besides, that’ll never happen, that’s not realistic. But for those people who want to manage for many purposes, you know, one of these silvicultural systems should be implemented.

Metta Spencer  36:21

Ouch, ouch. You’re really bothering me. What I know, is being reported as fact is that there’s still more reduction in forestry in the number in the coverage of the canopy of forests in the world now, than there is additional growth to this forest cover. So if we’re focusing on co2 removal, and we see trees as a mechanism of capturing and retaining carbon as long as they’re alive, then clearly, if you go and do a clear cut, you’re going to reduce the amount of co2  being sequestered by those trees, especially the big trees. You want to keep the big trees. If you replace them,  if you cut them all down and replace them with baby trees, it’s going to be many years before they’re able to sequester the amount of carbon that’s there. The other thing is, when a tree dies, that’s exactly when it stops sequestering carbon, but starts rotting and restoring the co2 back to the atmosphere. So I would have thought that that’s when you want to cut the thing and use it for some permanent durable product like furniture or houses if you’re just thinking about the co2 sequestration. The rest of your argument I can live with, but boy, it sure bothers me when I’m thinking about global warming. Because this this method of harvesting silviculture that you’re promoting doesn’t sound like it’s going to do much for our warming issue.

Sandy Smith  38:11

Could I could I jump in just very quickly?  I think what Mike’s talking about is what we do right now is and that’s forest management. Even in clear cutting, trees are cut at the peak growth. The growth is optimized. To come back to your argument, Metta, when growth is optimized, the amount of carbon being sequestered is proportional. So you’re at your optimal carbon sequestration when the tree is at its optimal growth. That is the window and you can correct me if I’m wrong on the specifics here, Mike. But that’s when you actually do cut them. You don’t want it to go into decline, and you don’t want it to slow down in its growth, because that’s when it’s not growing and it’s not sequestering carbon. So actually, the forest management strategies, even for clear cutting, you cut the trees when they’re sort ofjust at their prime or just going beyond it. 

Metta Spencer  39:15

So that has to do with metabolism. Clearly, a baby is metabolizing at different rate than an old person. But the amount of carbon or material that’s contained in a big thing is obviously going to be a lot more than is contained in a little thing. 

Sandy Smith  39:33

That’s why you want to cut it. That’s why you want to cut a, let’s say Jack pine at 80 years. Jack Biden could live over 100. But you cut it at 80 because it’s sort of like a mature adult. It stopped growing, it stopped, you know, bringing carbon in. It’s got lots of carbon stored and that’s exactly what you would do is say “Okay, this is when we take the carbon. It’s been sequestered. Now we will put it into furniture.” Toilet paper wouldn’t be the best use, probably.  We put it into buildings, we lock that carbon into place, so it doesn’t rot in the field.  Like when you’re

Robin  40:15

And you plant some more, that’s the point.

Sandy Smith  40:19

And you plant some more, which will take some time, another 80 years to get to where it needs to be. That’s exactly what we do. 

Metta Spencer  40:28

But the minute you cut it down and replant, you replace that tree with a baby tree that’s two feet tall. Yeah, you have reduced the amount of carbon being sequestered in the world by a huge amount.

Robin Collins  40:43

Well, no, because, if I’m not mistaken, the elderly trees are potential carbon emitter.  They actually release more carbon, so you want to get rid of the old ones. But you want to get them at their peak before they become problematic. So you cut them down can use that carbon that’s been collected and locked in for useful purposes. And begin again, with new trees that can now

Metta Spencer  41:14

Do you mean to say that the big, big tree like a huge Redwood or something, is emitting more carbon than it is containing?

Sandy Smith  41:25

It could be could be. It depends on what condition it’s in. If it has a lot of decay and rot, if it slowed down in growth of its broken branches, and all sorts. There’s some studies now going on in Haliburton forest; we’re looking at wood decay. And there’s quite a bit being emitted by trees that are attacked by diseases and in squirrels living in them. Every time there’s a wound or something that, the tree starts to emit. And the older it is, the more likely that’s to be the case. It will start releasing carbon. At what point is the balance of storing and releasing? This is what you’re asking about, Metta, is when does the balance happen? And that’s usually back to what foresters would say “optimal growth.” Like, you’re still young and healthy, and you’re storing carbon. I mean, you might let it go a little longer. But there’s some trade off. I don’t think we’ve ever looked at it that way. We usually look at the volume of wood. Wood is carbon. That’s what you’re trying to get. Carbon. Wood. 

Heather Schibli  42:39

Yeah, the question is, how is that wood that’s been harvested utilized,? Because if it’s used for burning, which is I think the number one use right now. So it really is like the afterlife, if you’re concerned about carbon sequestration. The other thing I just want to throw in is that trees are a lot more than just carbon sinks. And so that we don’t want to forget that like, even though they might, that curve might switch at a certain point in their lives from from collecting carbon to starting to release it, they’re doing a lot of other things, too. And we’re not only in a climate crisis, we’re in a biodiversity crisis. So it’s, it’s important to keep that in note, too, that those those heritage trees are very important.

Robin Collins  43:22

Yeah, it’s not an argument to cut down all the Redwoods.  You want to keep this stuff for aesthetic reasons. I mean, they’re the ones that everybody looks at. But we’re actually talking about the boreal forest or the Amazon or the taiga. These are the major sequesterers.

Sandy Smith  44:01

They have great potential because of the  land base that they occupy, especially in North America, and I presume the same in Russia. Back to the point Mike made about why we cut trees primarily. It’s not about forestry. It’s about agriculture. It’s about clearing land. And it’s exactly what we did here when we came to Canada or North America. First thing we did was start to clear the land. In fact, that’s how you got your property. As a pioneer here, you had to clear your land, or you didn’t own your your property. So the first thing you had to do was get rid of the trees so you could put your log cabin and start growing food and farming, to support communities. That’s what back to the colonial establishment. That’s what we’re still trying to do — take over the land. 

Metta Spencer  45:05

We do need still a lot of land for agriculture. So the general net direction is:  there may still be clearing land in order to feed the growing human population, which means that if we want to keep the amount of trees even standing, much less growing in the world, if we really want to get an extra trillion trees, we’ve got to find someplace else to put them. And that needs to be, I think, in urban areas or along roads, in the countryside. I don’t know where else you can do it because the Crowder people were expecting these growths, these increases in number of trees, largely to take place in the Arctic, which is a terrible idea. They did not say they encouraged people to plant them there, but they didn’t caution people about the dangers of having trees in the Arctic. And there’s this wonderful book called Tree line where a guy went around all around the countries in the Arctic and looked at where the trees are growing. And it’s really a very serious problem. Anyway, the thing is, if we want to keep steady the number of trees that we have in the world while we have to continue clearing land in order to make agricultural off the fields, then we have to put them into an urban areas — or at least what you call urban, which most people would not call urban, that is, along country roads and expressways and that sort of thing. Am I wrong?

Michael Rosen  46:59

No, you’ve brought you brought it around really well, Metta, to the urban. You’ve done a really good job at that. And you’re absolutely correct. I think that’s the way to go. There’s also what I would call abandoned agricultural land or marginal. It’s abandoned for a reason. And actually, I think I’m not an agrologist, but I think we’re getting much better at our efficiencies in agriculture. So I don’t know, I think we need less land because we’re able to grow so much more food per hectare of land. I’m seeing this around where I live. I’m involved now in a very small project owned by a land trust, were near the Gatineau Park in western Quebec. And it’s a classic marginal agricultural land. It’s not really that productive. One field very sandy, one field clay, and the owners decided to put it back into trees, and it’s going to be an amazing project. It’s going to be so much more beneficial for the environment. And there’s space for 10,000 trees, not not according to maybe how Heather would plant it but anyway, it’s it’s a lot. So there’s a lot of marginal farmland as well. With the 2 billion tree program of the federal government, it actually is difficult to find sites to plant trees. It’s kind of ironic. We’re sitting here thinking we need more trees. The government is actually giving people money to do that, and people are still having trouble coming up with sites to plant trees. 

Metta Spencer  48:47

Well, I would have to take issue with whether we’re getting better and better at farming. Certainly we’re doing more and more industrial farming, but the overall effect is that we’re depleting the soil worse than we ever were before. So that is one of the other projects I’m promoting in this Pugwash thing.  The idea is using soil amendments such as biochar and rock dust and seaweed extract both as a way of improving the productivity of the soil as well as sequestering carbon. But unless we do that, I think the overall net effect globally is that, as somebody wrote (and I wouldn’t say this is absolute gospel truth) that we have something like 60 more crops in the soil now because it’s all being washed away or depleted or otherwise ruined. The soil is being ruined unless we do something to restore its quality. And that’s why I’m promoting the other thing. So I do think that, by all means, we want to use a marginal land and improve it and there are certainly ways of improving the soil with regenerative agriculture, which I think is absolutely important thing as well. But I still think that the that this needs to be complemented (and I don’t think you’ve disagreed with me really) with urban forestry in terms of sequestering co2. But we can make life much more habitable in cities by having cooler cities and better maintenance of the of the water in the soil the health of the of the atmosphere, the air that we breathe. There are a lot of other other benefits that come from having a lot of trees in cities. And I think any of you oppose the general idea of trying to find ways of improving the  urban forestry in Canada? If you’re against it, I want to hear it. But 

Robin Collins  51:06

wouldn’t, I wouldn’t. The question to me is not whether growing trees in urban settings or in suburbia or along highways is a bad thing. It’s not.  It’s a good thing. For me, the question is: Will it substantially contribute to the sequestration problem? That’s the question. And I don’t think it will significantly — at least not urban.  I think there are some other projects — saving the Amazon forest.  Some have argued that in 20 to 50 years the the earth would recover its own forests through simple biological succession on its own if we didn’t get in the way of it. And there’s pretty good evidence that human planting is not necessarily the best way of doing it, for many reasons. But I think there are places where human planting is absolutely useful at this point in time, because we need to spur the the reestablishment of forests and sometimes you need human planting, even along Amazon forest destruction areas. You need human help to get that started back up again. But the urban forest project, as written, I believe, is not a bad project. It’s not a major or significant contributor to the sequestration issue in my vie. It’s a good idea on its own for other reasons. 

Metta Spencer  52:54

I think in 50 years or so when these trees grow, they will actually sequester more carbon than in the first few. I was looking for things that we can do within five years that will make a difference. And you’re absolutely right. This plan will not increase the amount of carbon sequestration within five years, no matter what we do. It has other benefits that are really worthwhile. And eventually, it will be helpful, maybe not as helpful as we would like or as we need. So we have to use other methods. But

Sandy Smith  53:40

Yes. I don’t know if you are going to solve the crisis. We’re in a crisis we’re asking what grows slowly to solve it for us. I mean, back to Peter’s mention of bamboo etc. If you really want carbon sequestration, you can grow for that. It’s no different than any other product that gets produced. And we kind of do that the thing in Canada. We grow forests on the natural land base. But I came originally from agriculture. You go well, why aren’t we — like bamboo, grow it in plantations? Or poplar. Grow it  fast, cut it, store the wood or lock it into biochar, take the carbon. I think we’re not very creative or innovative and we’re kind of locked into what we do. I mean, all the other benefits of forests — the diversity and all these other great benefits. I don’t know as they’ll come out of our plantation forests. People don’t seem to like plantation forests, but hey, that’s what we’re doing to agriculture. I think it’s being more honest and if you want to grow trees for carbon, then you can do it. Can you solve the crisis? No, but it’s certainly not going to hurt. And if anything, it will help.

Metta Spencer  55:14

Suppose we try your thing with bamboo or hemp. I don’t know that bamboo grows well in Canada. But at any rate, where would we put bamboo forests? 

Sandy Smith  55:26

I’m not advocating bamboo forests, actually. It’s a non-native plant. I don’t really want to

Heather Schibli  55:32

Poplars if you want to do that. I wanted to say that there is no one magic bullet. We seem to be very attracted to these like, “Oh, this is the solution that’s going to solve all our problems?” That’s not the case. There’s not one move that’s going to solve this. It’s all the little things, just like how we’re in this state, because of the 1000 cuts that we have thrown at the systems that were functioning on this planet for millennia. So I think it’s just recognizing that we all have a small contribution. And it’s okay, if your idea isn’t going to be the panacea for getting past this climate crisis. 

Metta Spencer  56:22

Okay, we could have a whole conversation about whether we want to wait and see if everybody does things like, turn off the lights and ride bicycles. But I think we have to look for things that have a lot of mileage. And these have big enough effects on the quality of life —  including, by the way, production of food.If we plant a lot of fruit trees and nut trees in urban areas, that actually could help a lot, not because Canadians are going hungry, but in a lot of countries it would make a difference. Anyway, we do need to prioritize in terms of where we’re going to put our main energy. I have four things that I think are important enough to  focus on that will make an impact within five years. I agree with you that urban forestry is not going to have an impact on sequestering carbon within five years. But it will make some difference — a little bit — in several years. And in the meantime, there are a lot of other benefits. So I’m sticking by my original proposal.

Sandy Smith  57:36

Okay, and I said I support it. I do. I mean, it’s never wrong to plant trees!  Will there be issues? Probably.  And will it solve all your problem? No, it won’t be the whole solution to everything, but it’s never wrong. And we will need those trees for something in the future. We’ll need them. And right now, carbon is one of the pieces. I just think we lack creativity on how to do this. 

Metta Spencer  58:07

Let’s think about what kinds of trees and where and how many we can do and all of that stuff. I’d like to get down eventually to some real specifics of what we can do and how much it’s going to cost and who’s going to do the work and how long they have to water the trees. And what about the bugs? 

Sandy Smith  58:28

You have to water them forever. 

Metta Spencer  58:32

Because getting from here to there is a big problem in terms of logistics and practical things. So I’m probably going to get back to you with other questions if you are willing to give it a little thought sometime. Thank you. Okay, blessings, thank you very much. And bye see you another time. Take care. Bye for now.  These conversations are produced by Project Save the World. This is episode number 514. You can watch or listen to them as audio podcasts on our website https://tosavetheworld.ca. People share information there about six global issues and to find a particular talk show, enter its title or episode number in the search bar, or the name of one of the guest speakers. Project Save the World also produces quarterly online publication, Peace <agazine. You can subscribe for $20 Canadian per year. Just go to PressReader.com on your browser. And in the search bar enter the word peace. You’ll see buttons to click to subscribe.

Episode 486 A Diplomat for Dissidents

Episode 486 A Diplomat for Dissidents

Host: Metta Spencer

SUMMARY KEYWORDS

putin, russia, people, war, ambassador, sanctions, ukraine, russians, world, russian, government, dissidents, moscow, support, years, hear, united states, polling, important, policy

SPEAKERS

Metta Spencer, Michael McFaul

Metta Spencer: Hi, I’m Metta Spencer. Today we have a real treat. We get to talk with Michael McFaul, who was the United States Ambassador to Russia from 2012 to 2014. He’s now a professor at Stanford and the director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. Good morning, Michael, how are you?

Michael McFaul: I’m fine. Thanks for having me.

Metta Spencer: Good. You said we can only spend half an hour and I have 100,000 questions I’d like to ask you. But let me ask you this as an informed person: Can anybody stop Putin? Is there anybody in his entourage who might be interested in trying to constrain this man, if he wants to do something even more destructive than he’s doing now? This war was bad enough. But you know, he might use a nuclear weapon. Today, for example, the head of the IAEA says that the Zaporizhzhya plant is out of control and they’d better send some experts in. This an emergency. Suppose he doesn’t do it. Suppose he just says, Let it go. Is there anybody who can stop this man?

Michael McFaul: That’s a big hard question and I don’t have an easy answer. If I were making a list, I would say the person that’s most likely to stop them is President Zelenskyy of Ukraine. And stopping him, to me, means stopping his invasion and the progress that his army is making inside Ukraine. Tragically, I don’t see another way to bring the war to an end. The way a lot of wars end is either one side wins or there’s a stalemate on the battlefield. So, there’s nothing unique to this situation.                               

But you’re implying a second question that’s harder: Is there anybody inside his government – a general, a former KGB guy? And I don’t think so. I used to know his entourage, his inner circle, pretty well. That was my job – to meet with them and interact with them. Obviously, I used to interact with President Putin too. And the structure of that regime today (not 20 years ago, by the way; it was very different two decades ago) but today there’s one guy at the top: President Putin.  Everybody around him owes their fortune or their position to him. He understands that he set that up over many, many years, so there’s not a lot of autonomy with respect to the people within his government, and most certainly not within economic society. 

I think there’s a lot of false hope expressed in the West: “Let’s sanction the oligarchs, the rich business people in Russia. Then they will get mad and go to Putin and say, ‘Stop your war so I can get my yacht back.'” That’s not the way their system works. Those closely around him who have been enriched by him – say, the head of the oil company there, Rosneft – that’s a good example. The head of that is named Igor Sechin. I met Igor Sechin in the spring of 1991 – when I met Vladimir Putin, in fact. So I’ve followed his career for a long time. He’s not the CEO of the Russian oil company because he’s a business person, or because he’s figured out how to make state-owned companies profitable. He’s the CEO because Putin appointed him to that job. So, he doesn’t have any leverage vis a vis Mr. Putin to say, “Stop this war.”  And then there’s a second category of oligarchs. They’re mostly the people who made their money in the ’90s. They get a lot of attention in the American press, because they’re the ones whose yachts are being seized and they’re on the sanctions list – and, by the way, rightly so in my view. I have nothing against that action in terms of the US government or the Canadian government or the EU, by the way. The Canadians are usually leading the charge on all of us. But I think there’s a misconception about their political influence over Mr. Putin. He actually doesn’t care about these people. He’s happy to see their yacht seized, and the idea that they’re going to leverage him or influence him to stop the war or even in a more grave situation like you talked about, suggest to not use nuclear weapons. Tragically, I think those are decisions that Putin himself will make.

Metta Spencer: Well, there was a time when this guy Stanislav Petrov refused to obey orders and saved the rest of us. We’re alive today because of him. He just plain wouldn’t do what he was told. Now, when I was going to Russia long ago, even before Gorbachev’s day, I was being invited by the Soviet Peace Committee. We would sit at the table and have conferences. They acted as if I had some influence or something. But anyway, they would give their regular line, but then we’d go for coffee and they’d go “Yeah, Yeah!  That’s right! Keep it up.” I found that, within the Party, there was a huge component of people who were really on our side but didn’t want to show it at the time. I called those guys “termites.” In fact, of course, Gorbachev turned out to be the leading termite. So now, is there anything that you have discovered where (wink wink, nudge nudge) “we in Putin’s entourage really are on your side? And we’ll do what we can eventually to get you there?”

Michael McFaul: Again, another tough question that I don’t have an easy answer to. I think the history that you hinted at, including your own history, is an important lesson. I think we now know in retrospect, that those kinds of contacts between nongovernmental organizations, academics, especially the nuclear scientists, during those periods did have an influence. They helped end the Cold War. They helped everybody to calm down. And after the Cuban Missile Crisis, where we came close to a nuclear war, on both sides, there were rational people who said, “We need to figure out ways to avoid these worst-case scenarios.” And we developed some crisis management, crisis prevention mechanisms, sometimes through the government, sometimes through these non-governmental channels. 

I think there are important lessons for us to learn from that period. By the way, both for managing our relations with Russia today, but also for China today, because the Chinese don’t know those lessons. And I’m thinking about, you know, what’s happening around Taiwan right now. We should go back and learn those lessons from the Cold War. They were important mechanisms that helped avoid catastrophic disaster, and in some channels of communication really helped for breakthroughs with regard to ending the Cold War, the nuclear arms agreements that started during that time and continued until the last one that we did. I was part of that team, the New START Treaty. Those are important lessons to re-learn, because I think we’ve forgotten them. 

Now with respect to Russia, today, I am nervous that we don’t have much connectivity with the Russian government and with Russian society, even compared to when I was ambassador a decade ago. You can agree to disagree, and most certainly I have many meetings with the Russian government where we spend most of it disagreeing. But what we can’t have happen, and what I’m worried about – because we don’t have much interaction these days – is a crisis that spins out of control because of misperception, because of misunderstanding. 

When I was ambassador, I used to say to my team all the time: “We’re going to have disagreements with the Russians, and our job is to manage them. But we can’t have disagreements based on bad information or misperception.” And I worry today that because there’s so little interaction, Vladimir Putin himself is quite isolated today. Even before COVID, he was very isolated. He didn’t spend a lot of time in Moscow. He spent most of it out at his house. But since COVID, he’s been even more isolated, that worries me and military-to-military dialogue, intelligence-to-intelligence dialogue, those were things we learned to do at earlier phases that we’re not doing now and we should be doing more of those things today. 

To your termite metaphor (that’s a great one) I would say, I’m on the sanctions list. I was on the sanctions list starting in 2014. So after going to Russia in the Soviet Union pretty much every year from 1983 to 2014, I obviously haven’t been back in eight years’ time. I think your listeners might be surprised at how many times I do interact with Russians, including those close to the government, sitting out here in Palo Alto, because of the long-standing relationships I have. And my impression, but I want to emphasize it’s an impression, not a scientific statement, is that there’s very, very few people in Russia today who think this war was a good thing. Maybe Putin does.

Metta Spencer: Really?

Michael McFaul: Yeah, maybe Putin does. But most of his government do not. Most certainly none of the economic elites do. They think it’s a huge disaster that will have long term negative consequences for the Russian economy. And I mean, decades of negative consequences, not just the short-term sanctions. 

Does the Russian military support it? I doubt it. I think that if you read in the tea leaves, this was an assessment about this was going to be a cakewalk and they were going to greet us as liberators!  This reminds me of things we heard in the run up to the war in Iraq. That intelligence assessment turned out to be radically wrong. And you hear some blaming between the intelligence services on the one hand, and the military on the other. The Russian military has taken devastating losses. They are not performing the way they were supposed to, according to what it looked like on paper. And remember, if you’re a general in Russia before this war, you’ve been enjoying massive spending over the last two decades under Vladimir Putin’s rule. Those were good times for you. And you fought these little wars every now and again, right? The Georgia 2008. Ukraine 2014, Syria with the air force 2015. And those were wins for you, but not facing very challenging opponents. This war is very different. They’re facing a real army with real capacity, with real will to fight. And if you’re a Russian general, this is not bringing any glory. And by the way, the way they’re fighting it, too, is also not bringing glory. Ukrainians attack military arsenals, they attack arms depots. Russians are attacking civilians. Okay, publicly, they have to say this is what we have to do. I don’t know of a real soldier that wants to actually attack civilians. So, I don’t think it’s very popular in the elite Russian military. And then in society, I would say, this is hard to measure. Take opinion polls with a grain of salt.

Metta Spencer: Well, Levada (and Levada is the last halfway trustworthy group) would say 75%, or 80% favor Putin’s moves.

Michael McFaul: Yeah, well, let’s break that down a little bit. I know Levada well.  I’ve worked with all the polling agencies, Yuri Levada was a friend of mine before he passed away. You know what they’re not telling you? That the respondents are not responding to their polls. I hear, through my circles, it could be as high as 80%. So, if 80%, when they get the message in the poll, are not responding, you’re only getting a sample of those that want to respond. And we know from our own polling here in the United States, that’s why we our polling firms keep missing the Trump voters because the Trump voters say we don’t want to respond to your polls. So, we need to be very careful when we look at those numbers. If 80% are literally hanging up the phone, or not answering the email, that’s a pretty skewed poll. That’s number one. 

Number two, just to remind everyone, Russia is a police state. Everybody knows that their phones and their emails are being reviewed. Suppose you’re out there in Vladivostok and a complete stranger in a society with zero trust calls you from Moscow. In your mind, Moscow means Putin. He calls you up and says, “What do you think of the special military operation?”  And you know that you can go to jail 15 years just for using the word “war.” There’s only one rational response to that. Why would you go out of your way to express disapproval? That’s a very dangerous thing you would be doing. So, I just think there’s a lot more quiet opposition to what’s going on. They hate the sanctions too, by the way. Let’s be clear. They’re very upset at Americans right now. I experience that every day. They feel that we are unjustly sanctioning them for things that they have nothing to do with because they live in an autocracy. But enthusiasm for the war? I think it is actually pretty low. 

And here’s one more data point, just to think about. I used to do polling in Russia and I’m a consumer of it to this day. There is a really clear pattern of who supports Putin and who doesn’t, even before the war. The more educated you are, the more urban the place you live, the richer you are, and the younger you are, the more likely that you don’t support Putin, and you don’t listen to his television programs, talking about the war. By the way, that’s a pattern we see in the United States as well. Whereas the more rural voters, the less educated, older, poor, those are the people that do support the war. We know that to be true. Pretty robust data about –

Metta Spencer: The war! Oh, I thought you were going to talk about supporting Trump.

Michael McFaul: Well, that’s the same correlation. The demographics of Trump voters and Putin voters are actually quite similar. But I would say, I’m –

Metta Spencer: Sorry, but that’s so ironical! Because Trump is like Putin’s pet dog. So, the idea that these people support the war against Russia is bizarre. I mean, there’s cognitive dissonance there!

Michael McFaul: Maybe I wasn’t clear! They support Putin’s war against Ukraine. I want to be clear. They support Putin. But in their demographics, the Putin electorate looks a lot like Trump’s electorate. Very similar. Within that, though, it’s important to think about who’s really active and who’s not. And I would encourage your listeners to go look at the numbers. I don’t have them off the top of my head, but those who actually watch Russian state television, it’s like 20 million or so. Twenty million is a big number. But then go look at Aleksei Navalny’s YouTube stations. You know how many people watch that? About 20 million! So, when I hear that all Russians are supporting Putin and I then go and look up the numbers for Navalny’s channel! You know, to watch Navalny’s channel in Russia, number one, it takes a VPN, and two, you have to be nervous about that. And yet millions of Russians are tuning in to Navalny’s team and not the Russian state television. It suggests to me that it might be a little more complex than the conventional wisdom states.

Metta Spencer: Fascinating. You were unique in getting under Putin’s skin when you were the ambassador. I was always hearing about how much he hated you. You say you’re persona non grata or you couldn’t visit Russia. Is that true of other former ambassadors and diplomats or did you just have a particularly bad relationship with him?

Michael McFaul: Well, in my role I didn’t have much of a relationship with him. I want to be clear about that. Ambassadors don’t have relationships with presidents of Russia.

Metta Spencer: He obviously didn’t like you. There were all kinds of signs of that.

Michael McFaul: Well, but let me explain it. I arrived as the US ambassador in January 2012 – right when there were massive demonstrations inside Russia to protest a falsified vote that the entire world, including my boss at the time, Secretary Clinton, says was not a free and fair election. And so, when I arrived right when that was happening, Vladimir Putin and his propaganda channels said that people were protesting against that election because they were supported by President Obama, Secretary Clinton and me. And that was my fate. 

It was additionally complicated by the fact that some of the people who were leading those demonstrations were friends of mine from 20 years before, Boris Nemtsov being one of the most important figures at the time. He was later assassinated. And so, they thread that together and talked about the fact that I knew Boris Nemtsov and that was why they attacked me. 

want to make sure people understand: You don’t go to Moscow as the US ambassador and just pop off on Twitter about your personal point of view, or get on TV and say, “This is what I think.” No, I represented the United States of America, President Obama. I’d worked for him for three years at the White House before I was ambassador. In the State Department we had one policy. We didn’t have a McFaul policy versus the rest. But when there were human rights abuses inside Russia, it was our policy to speak out against them. Putin didn’t like that and that was my job. It was my fate that I had to endure his attacks. 

I did hear from people in the West – sometimes other ambassadors – who would say, “You know, Mike, you’re overreacting. Putin is not such a bad guy. You know, that Navalny guy, he deserves to go to jail. You know, Pussy Riot, they got two years in prison. Why are you speaking out about that? You know, let’s just try to keep calm about Vladimir Putin.” Some people in my country blamed me personally for the breakdown in US-Russian relations. 

I would just remind people: That was a decade ago.  It was long after I left Moscow that Putin invaded Ukraine. That’s when he used his air force to bomb innocent civilians in Syria. That’s when he intervened in our elections in 2016, 2018. He tried to kill Mr. Skripov in the UK. And then, this year, he invaded in this catastrophic tragedy for the world, Ukraine. Those are all events that happened well after the things I was talking about. So, the idea that somehow I was responsible —

Metta Spencer: You were certainly vindicated. He did you a favor. If you wanted to be proved right, he certainly helped you. 

Michael McFaul: I didn’t actually answer one question. To the best of my knowledge there was an ambassador before me who was kicked out of the Soviet Union. That’s persona non grata. He said something comparing Nazi Germany to Stalin’s Soviet Union, and he was asked to leave the country. His name was George Kennan, a rather famous man.

Metta Spencer: Oh! Kennan was kicked out? I didn’t know that!

Michael McFaul: In 1950. For something he said on the tarmac in Berlin, criticizing Stalin. I think I’m the only other US ambassador, going all the way back to John Quincy Adams (he was our first ambassador) who has been put on the sanctions list. But they just released some new sanctions, so maybe some of my former colleagues have now joined me, I don’t know for sure.

Metta Spencer: Our networks overlap a little bit. It’s not only academic. I’ve worked with people who are friends of yours, but also I hang out with dissidents so I know a lot of Russian and Ukrainian dissidents. And I know that those people know you, because they have been invited to Stanford to various workshops that you have hosted over the years. And my impression is that you are sympathetic to people who want a more radical rule of law, and would like to do away with the current policy of declaring it immoral and illegal for one country to support a group of people in another country. For example, I think we ought to work to overcome this whole rule against assisting dissidents in Russia or any place else that need dissidents. This is global. It’s not just the Russians who do it. On the books anyway, the US has a similar law, though it’s not imposed as radically. I think we ought to abolish that and try to encourage more opportunities for people in one country to support people in another. What’s your take on that? I’ve told you mine now.

Michael McFaul: Well, I’d say a couple of things. You’re right. I run a large research institution here at Stanford. It’s about 500 people, by the way. It’s a big operation and we work on many things. We work on global health, climate change, cyber technology, nuclear weapons, but we have one of our centers (it’s called the Center on Democracy, Development and Rule of Law) that tries to understand the relationship between those three things. So first and foremost, as an academic institution our mission is to understand the world and explain it, and then teach our students about it. So that’s the first thing we do. 

But in addition, we do have a kind of applied mission statement. I run FSI – the Freeman Spogli Institute  – which tries to translate scientific knowledge into policy outcomes. We do that through a lot of modalities. Sometimes we have our people go work in the government like I did. That’s a way to translate academic ideas into policy. Other times we try to publish things to reach broader publics. But we also have this training mission that you hinted at. In fact, one of the reasons I have to jump off right now is that we have what’s called the Draper Hills Summer Fellows Program, where we bring activists. We had to go online during COVID, of course, but this year, for the first summer after three years, we’re in person. And this year, we have 31 activists, “small d democrats” I call them, from all over the world, not just Russia. They come together for three weeks. And our sessions today are about the problems in American democracy. 

By the way, they’re offering some advice to us on how we can improve our democracy. They have experience with getting people to believe that elections are free and fair. That’s a big challenge we have here in the United States, so we have things we can learn from other countries on that front. But the idea is, let’s learn from each other. We bring them together so they can learn from each other. They don’t need Stanford professors to do that. They learn in conversation with each other. You call it assistance. I call it education, but philosophically I agree with you. 

I’m a citizen of the world, I’m an independent person. It doesn’t matter what’s the color of my passport. On my reading list here at Stanford, I don’t just include authors from the United States, that would be absurd; we don’t do that. And I think it is absurd for other countries to try to limit knowledge that way. Solidarity between those that have shared values is a is a norm that we should all aspire to. And I want to say very consciously that it has to be a two-way street. I want “small d democrats” from Kenya, and Belarus and Tunisia and Nigeria. Those are just a few of the countries we have here today. I want to hear their voices about American democracy. We all believe in universal values, so it should be a two-way street.

Metta Spencer: I wish we could go on because I’d love to talk to you about the kinds of vision you have, or that are emerging in your institute about the future of democracy. I am concerned because I think that, globally, democracy’s just in terrible shape.

Michael McFaul: It is. 

Metta Spencer: And we have to make some extraordinary changes, including at the level of the United Nations. I think Putin has turned over the chessboard. Things that weren’t working very well before clearly are not going to work at all anymore. So we have –

Michael McFaul: We agree on that. And my colleague, Larry Diamond, who just spoke here, talked about the 16th year of democratic recession the world’s in. But let’s come back. Let’s do that another time with some of my other colleagues who are even more expert than I am.

Metta Spencer: Give my regards to Larry

Michael McFaul: Okay, thanks for having me. 

Metta Spencer: It’s been fun. 

T248. Werbos, Computers, and God

284 – When Soviet and American Scientists Worked Together

284 - When Soviet and American Scientists Worked Together

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number: 284
Panelists: Frank von Hippel and Roald Sagdeev.
Host: Metta Spencer

Date Aired: 6 July 2021.
Date Transcribed and Verified: 30 November 2021.
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits: Adam Wynne.

Synopsis: Roald Sagdeev led scientists in Gorbachev’s USSR; Frank von Hippel was his counterpart in the US. They worked together to reduce the risk of nuclear war.

Please note this transcript has been edited. 

Metta Spencer  

I’m Metta Spencer. Did you know, there was a time when the Americans and the Soviets got along? And the scientists were good friends. And we need to think about those days. I have here with me, although they’re at their own computers, two very, very eminent scientists who were engaged with each other and with saving the world. I think we can owe a lot to both of them for their part in bringing the end into the Cold War. And I want to have a conversation today when these two men reminisce about the old days. Roald Sagdeev was in those days a Soviet scientist, and he was very active in the Committee of the Soviet Scientists, which interacted very much with another organization, an American group that was headed by Frank von Hippel. Now, Roald Sagdeev, many years ago, moved to the United States. So, he’s in Maryland right now, but has often been in touch with his old pal, Frank von Hippel. They recently celebrated the 100th anniversary of Sakharov, another scientist of that generation who was also probably even better known than they for his work as not only the father of the Russian hydrogen bomb, which was not exactly something I would celebrate, but also, he was very famous as a dissident. A very courageous man. So, he’s no longer with us, but these two men are. So hello, fellas. Roald Sagdeev, let’s ask you, if you will, to give us a pre-history of this historical period that we’re going to be reminiscing about. Will you tell us what was going on after Stalin died and bring us up to the 1980s? 

Roald Sagdeev  

Scientists contributed a lot to the nuclear era. And it is not surprising that those who were very involved in designing nuclear weapons were also great scientists of the 1930s, 1940s, and 1950s. They were some of the first to tell the governments that the world might perish if policies were not changed. I remember I was a young scientist in the 1950s, just at the beginning of my career. Stalin had just passed away. At the time when I was about to graduate from the University of Moscow, I remember the great American nuclear physicist Leo Szilard tried to write a letter to Stalin to explain how dangerous life would be during the nuclear era. And he didn’t actually send this letter. Probably, Stalin was not the guy who would receive this letter in a kind manner. But a few years later, [Szilard] actually sent a letter to Khrushchev, the successor of Stalin. This was delivered to the hands of Khrushchev by Soviet scientists that he met at early meetings. And this led, actually, to a very interesting meeting in New York, when Khrushchev during his political visit, invited Leo Szilard to talk about nuclear dangers. And so, that was an interesting indication that sometimes governments try to hear what scientists would tell them. Similarly, on the Soviet side, Sakharov was the first who raised the alarm about the danger of nuclear tests and the radioactive contamination of the atmosphere. He wrote a number of letters to Khrushchev and equally on American side, my friend Frank von Hippel, did very important work with a very detailed analysis of this radioactive fallout and its dangers.  So, this call, coming from these two scientists, virtually created the process of negotiations. Khrushchev was involved, as was John F. Kennedy. And it ended with a very important treaty banning or partially banning nuclear tests, in the atmosphere, in the oceans, and in outer space. So that was the very first step at that time. 

Metta Spencer  

When was this organization founded? The Soviet Scientists… what was the name of the committee? 

Roald Sagdeev  

The Committee of Soviet Scientists to Prevent Nuclear War. It was established in the early 1980s, following the very difficult events when the Soviet Army invaded Afghanistan in late 1979. And it actually interrupted all the regular contact, virtual contacts, and consultations on important issues between Soviets and the West and between the United States and its Allies. And I think that it was an understanding on both sides, that something has to be going on. Some kind of contacts, interaction, partially to create transparency, to prevent the accidental [use] or whatever will happen with nuclear weapons. And so, there was a creation of this group, under the auspices of the Soviet Academy of Scientists. That was a move which came on the Soviet side.

Metta Spencer  

The Union of Concerned Scientists had been around since almost the end of World War 2, right?

Frank von Hippel  

It was the Federation of American Scientists. The Union of Concerned Scientists is a different organization. 

Metta Spencer  

Pardon me. I’m sorry. I know better.

Frank von Hippel  

I was very interested to hear Roald explain that pre-history. Just one correction: Sakharov’s counterpart on the US-side was Linus Pauling, who was actually equally…. Later on, I just became involved in checking Sakharov’s calculations. But I became involved when we received a letter from the Committee of Soviet Scientists asking us whether we had changed our minds about the possibility of there being an effective defense against ballistic missiles. So, this was following President Reagan’s speech in March 1983, where he called on the US scientific community to pitch in and develop what became known as “Star Wars.” We responded that we hadn’t changed our minds. And we were invited over – the leadership of the Federation was invited – over to Moscow – and then we had a side trip to Tbilisi in Georgia over the Thanksgiving weekend in 1983 – to talk and to brainstorm about how to keep things from going out of control. And it was just after the scare about a possible nuclear war that had happened just earlier that same month.

Metta Spencer  

That Able Archer [83] thing? 

Frank von Hippel  

Able Archer [83], the NATO exercise. 

Metta Spencer  

You should explain it a little. 

Frank von Hippel  

This was one of a series of NATO exercises. And it was to end with a nuclear tabletop aspect of a US nuclear strike against Eastern Europe. I think the scenario must have been a Soviet invasion of Germany. It was more elaborate exercise than the previous exercises and the Soviets were worried that this was a real thing. Especially after Reagan had been calling the Soviet Union the evil empire. It was one of the near misses that we had of actually going from this nuclear confrontation into an actual nuclear war during the Cold War. They thought that the US might be preparing an attack on Eastern Europe. The Soviets actually started loading bombs, fighter bombers, and nuclear bombs in case. And there were discussions of preemption. Fortunately, NATO didn’t respond by escalating to the Soviet Union’s response. Therefore, the exercises ended without anything happening. 

Metta Spencer  

I think we’ve left out a few years there, because in between Stalin and the period you’re talking about, there was this buildup of tension, which we haven’t described. The fears arose in all parts of the world, that there would be a nuclear war, because there was a buildup of and the intention to install missiles closer and closer in Europe. And then we get to the period that you’ve just talk to me about in 1983. 

Frank von Hippel  

There was an earlier crisis in 1962 – the Cuban Missile Crisis – which was perhaps the closest we got, but then there was a long period of detente through the 1970s. And then in 1979, after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan; and then with Reagan coming in with this – you know – brave hawkish view, we had this second crisis in the early 1980s, which I guess peaked with this Able Archer [83] exercise. 

Roald Sagdeev  

Yeah, and this crisis was growing since the late 1970s. It started with Soviet plans to deploy a medium range rocket to threaten major European capitals -NATO allies of the United States – and to intimidate them. And in a reciprocal act, Americans started deployment of a similar type of medium range rocket, which would be able to reach Moscow from much closer distances – 1000 miles or shorter. And so, the crisis is what they called the Euro-Rocket Crisis and was very serious. Both sides understood that it would change qualitatively the balance of powers if there would be risk of launching such rockets – nuclear rockets – from shorter distances. I remember the Soviet government’s Politburo was extremely afraid of all these things. And suddenly, on top of that, Reagan delivers his speech about Star Wars. That was a culmination in 1983.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah, well some of us had been meeting in the earlier 1980s. Before the Star Wars thing began. I was already well engaged, because I had probably made 10 trips – well maybe not 10 by then, but I certainly did more than 10 later – to Russia and to other Eastern European cities where the Soviet Peace Committee would invite Western peace activists, large numbers of us – a whole plane full of us – at a time in about 1982. 

Frank von Hippel  

That was very significant period. There was this mobilization in both Western Europe and in the United States against the nuclear arms race. For my development, this was an important period. To see that, you know, that force was a real political force in the United States.

Metta Spencer  

It really had had influence, I think.

Frank von Hippel  

And I think Roald may be able to tell us that this had an impact in Moscow in the Gorbachev group, on feeling maybe the US was not just controlled by the military industrial complex. 

Roald Sagdeev  

Actually, that reminder of that period brings me back to a very intense moment. The reaction of different circles inside the Soviet elite to Reagan’s speech. I have to confess that there were enthusiasts. The leaders of the Soviet military-industrial complex said: “Great, we will have something more to do!”  Fortunately, Gorbachev came at that moment. And we knew that we were not alone. The idea of the terrible past of the arms race was shared with our American scientist counterparts. We were very successful to persuade Gorbachev to reject the attempts of the Soviet military industrial complex to follow the American precedent and establish a strategic defense initiative on the Soviet side. 

Metta Spencer  

Well, I want to hear about that, because I’m very aware that you were having a lot of influence with Gorbachev. And I think maybe that’s the first time you maybe did have much political influence. Is that right? How did that work? it? Did you meet with him? Or did he reach out to you? How did you use any kind of influence in those conversations?

Roald Sagdeev  

I think it started in in a rather accidental way. About a year before, Gorbachev became General Secretary when he was still a younger member of the Politburo. He was asked by the Politburo to make a trip to the United Kingdom to meet with Margaret Thatcher. So, he established a small delegation and a colleague of mine – Evgeny Velikhov – was invited by Gorbachev to join that trip. It was the first very successful trip and played a very important role later on when Thatcher explained to Reagan and the other Western leaders that Gorbachev is a new guy, a new face, and we can make a deal with him. We built some good connections between science and the future General Secretary. The very first thing we did was to prepare a manuscript explaining the dangers of following the line of missile defense. Frank knows this manuscript very well. We also used some advice from our American colleagues. It was delivered to Gorbachev and I believe it played an important role. Then, very soon after, Velikhov and I were invited to meet with Gorbachev and we were invited to accompany him to his very first summit with Reagan. 

Metta Spencer  

Oh, okay. And what happened there? What did you do while they were off by the fireplace having their conversation? 

Roald Sagdeev  

I think at the beginning it was rather easy to reach Gorbachev. Later, it was a little bit more difficult because of bureaucratic shielding around him. But I think Gorbachev firmly rejected attempts of the military industrialists inside the Soviet elite to change his mind. He was very much against Star Wars. The first two summits – in Geneva in 1985 and in Reykjavik in 1986 – went under the stigma of Star Wars. And I think Regan did his own homework and later on he understood that it was important to come to an agreement with the Soviets. It was Reagan who first said: “Let’s make a deal. Let’s destroy and annihilate all the nuclear rockets.” 

Metta Spencer  

I didn’t know it was Reagan. Oh, my goodness. 

Roald Sagdeev  

It was at Reykjavik in 1986.  

Metta Spencer:

I thought it was Gorbachev.

Roald Sagdeev  

Gorbachev thought it was a great idea, but he had one condition: he would also refuse to talk about continuing with the Star Wars strategy. So, it took some time before both finally agreed. I think it was fall of 1987 when Gorbachev had a short summit in Washington DC. At that point in time, it was very important. Euro Rockets had been cancelled and were being destroyed. An agreement was done to eliminate them. 

Metta Spencer  

Okay. Now, Frank, where were you at this point? Did Reagan take a team of scientists with him to the to these summits? The way that Roald was taken to the first summit by Gorbachev? 

Frank von Hippel  

No. We had no interaction with Reagan. He might have taken his science advisor along. But it’s very interesting what Roald is saying. In fact, my first interactions were actually with Gorbachev, not with Reagan. And it was thanks to the Soviet committee. It related to Gorbachev’s first initiative after he became General Secretary, which was to announce a unilateral Soviet nuclear test moratorium and which is actually similar to what Khrushchev had done when he tried to get a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.

Metta Spencer  

Is this when you worked on this seismic monitoring operation?

Frank von Hippel  

Yeah. Well, that’s one thing that came out of it. I think it was originally Velikhov’s idea – when the Reagan administration did not reciprocate and stop the US testing – as to how to keep the initiative alive. And Velikhov had this idea that maybe we should invite somebody in to monitor. Because some people in the Reagan administration were saying: “Well, maybe the Soviets are actually cheating. Maybe they’re carrying out small nuclear explosions at their test sites.”  So, then Velikhov suggested to me that maybe we should try to invite in somebody or a group to monitor the moratorium. 

Metta Spencer  

Was Velikhov the one who proposed that? 

Frank von Hippel  

Yes, it was Velikhov who proposed that. I think Tom Cochran from the Natural Resources Defense Council also had that idea on the United States’ side. He was one of the people that I invited to come to a meeting in Moscow in May 1986 to meet with Velikhov and discuss this idea. It was actually the NRDC which undertook the organizing of a group of American seismologists to come in and set up seismic stations around the Soviet test site in Kazakhstan. And that had a big impact in the United States, because of the efforts that Kennedy and Khrushchev had made to have a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty had failed to stop nuclear testing underground as the Soviets did not want to have more than a certain number of in country inspections of suspicious seismic events. And the fact that the Soviet Union had unilaterally invited a group in to monitor their test site showed that things had changed. This was part of the nuclear glasnost that was pioneered by Gorbachev with Velikhov’s and Sagdeev’s advice. 

Metta Spencer  

I remember being at the office of Aaron Tovish who had gone with you on some of those trips. I remember he said that Ed Markey stood up in Congress and put up a big map and said: “Look here. This is where we have monitoring stations in Semipalatinsk. We have our people right there watching them.” And this made a big impression on congress. 

Frank von Hippel  

It did. It took some time, but ultimately Congress said in 1992 that: “If the rest of the world stops testing, we have to too.”  And that was actually what got us to the Comprehensive Test Ban [Treaty]. 

Metta Spencer  

So, you think that Congress had some important leverage in there? See, I’m surprised when Roald said it was Reagan who had proposed the cutback and making of a deal. I thought that Reagan had to be dragged there. But, if you’re right and he actually spoke first along those lines, that sounds good to me. I’m glad to hear it. 

Roald Sagdeev  

Of course, Congress played a very important role. At that time, there were great Senators and great members of Congress who were fully understanding the dangers of nuclear confrontations. They were against Reagan’s most extreme plans even before Reagan changed his mind. I think it was very important that by 1987 Reagan was ready already to move forward.   

Metta Spencer  

I guess an interesting question then is: “What really changed Reagan’s mind?” I do remember I was on the plane coming back from Moscow while the film called The Day After was shown. It was a very important film that showed the aftermath of a nuclear war. And I believe Reagan said that was what actually made him really get serious about nuclear disarmament. I never saw the film because I was on the plane when it was screening. Was there anything like that going on in the Duma or anywhere else? My impression was that all of the power was in the Politburo and not elsewhere. How much popular resistance was there during that period in Russia? 

Roald Sagdeev  

I don’t think I can compare Russian popular resistance to what was happening in Europe as we spoke of. In Europe, there was a really serious uprising with many big meetings, demonstrations against nuclear threats, and so on. In Russia, the government controlled the protests. Press the necessary buttons to organize the protests and so on. Even more today, you know, when Putin shows cartoons about new and more exotic nuclear rocket gadgets. The Duma stands up and collectively applauds. I feel nostalgic about the older times looking at what is happening today in Moscow. 

Metta Spencer  

I wish I had been able to invite Evgeny Velikhov, but I gather he is not well nowadays. I did have a conversation with him once about this. Frank, you worked quite closely with him, didn’t you?

Frank von Hippel  

Yes. He was a real hero in this period and in organizing these initiatives. I mentioned the monitoring project. He and Roald were very important in preventing the Soviet Star Wars. If the Soviets actually started their own Ballistic Missile Defense Program mirroring ours then I don’t think we would have been able to stop the arms race going on into a new offense-defense direction. Also, during the Glasnost – which was an opening up – Velikhov organized a number of events. One ended up with a demonstration. Roald and I did a research project on whether you could detect nuclear weapon warheads and the issue was whether to include sea launched nuclear armed cruise missiles in the START treaty that was under discussion. The Soviets wanted to include them. The Reagan administration said: “Well, you can’t tell the difference between a nuclear armed and a conventional sea launched cruise missile.”  So, Velikhov amazingly got permission from Gorbachev to have an experiment demonstration of whether you could detect the nuclear radiation from a sea launched cruise missile off Yalta in the Black Sea. Roald and I had been supervising a theoretical research project on that question. And so, the NRDC – again with Tom Cochran – undertook an initiative to demonstrate this on the US side. But I found much more impressive what the Soviets did. Basically, in our case, we had people sitting on top of the launcher on this cruiser in the Black Sea, detecting gamma rays coming out of the warhead. But the Soviets had a helicopter with a neutron detector flying by about 70 meters away and they could detect neutrons. 

Metta Spencer  

Hold on. Let me make sure. You had an American destroyer? 

Frank von Hippel  

It was a Soviet destroyer. 

Roald Sagdeev  

 Yes.

Metta Spencer  

So, the Soviets were detecting their own radiation? 

Frank von Hippel  

Yes. That was the amazing thing. This is the only time foreigners have been allowed to measure radiation from any warhead by any country. And Gorbachev had enforced this on the Soviet nuclear establishment. Just to finish the story about the helicopter: later on, they told me that they had actually been flying this helicopter over US ships and detecting the warheads. I said: “They would never let you to get that close. Would they?” And they showed me pictures of the sailors on the US ships waving at the helicopter.   

[all chuckle]

Roald Sagdeev  

Probably little did the sailors know that there were gamma ray and neutron detectors on those friendly helicopters! 

Metta Spencer  

You know, I have to wonder… I remember you told me that story when I interviewed you 20 some years ago. But I’ve wondered ever since: gamma rays were shooting all over the place. You could fly over or get within some meters of them and detect them. Well, what about the people on the ship? I mean that must not have been a fun place to be. Whatever happened to them? Wasn’t it dangerous to have nuclear weapons shooting out gamma rays? 

Frank von Hippel  

The levels that you can detect are much, much lower than the levels of that do harm. So, I think the dosage to the sailors were probably less than the natural background dose from cosmic rays and so on. So, this means that one of the things that the helicopter had to make sure of was that it wasn’t detecting cosmic rays, instead of the neutrons from the warheads. 

Roald Sagdeev  

This radiation is just like the radiation that contemporary gamma ray telescopes are getting from distant astronomical objects, like exploding stars and such. The biggest instrument like this is now on the International Space Station. Astronauts and cosmonauts help to use it. It’s no problem. 

Metta Spencer  

Oh, okay. I’ve often wondered. Isn’t it dangerous to be a sailor on a nuclear armed submarine? I wouldn’t take the job myself.

Frank von Hippel  

Well, I mean, in some cases, they actually have sailors sleeping on bunks over the stored nuclear armed cruise missiles. This isn’t true anymore, because they’re not deployed. That’s a little close for comfort, I think. But the radiation levels are pretty low coming out of the warheads. 

Roald Sagdeev  

Frank mentioned some research we were doing and actually what happened at approximately the same time: Frank, with a little bit of my participation, established a major international scientific magazine: Science and Global Security. This was where all the researchers could publish their calculations and analysis of different things related to all this military stuff. I understand this journal is still prospering now. 

Metta Spencer  

No kidding. Well, that’s really one of the things I was wondering which I’d hope we’d get to a bit later in this narrative. I mean, we’re sort of going through a chronology and moving forward in time. But certainly, I wouldn’t have thought there’d be much contact between scientists now – Russian scientists and Western scientists – on military matters. Is there or not?

Frank von Hippel  

There still is. Roald, are you still involved with this? 

Roald Sagdeev  

Very rarely. I have been invited to webinars. I think maybe two or three times over the pandemic. 

Frank von Hippel  

But there are regular meetings between the committee at the US Academy of Sciences and the Russian Academy of Sciences. 

Roald Sagdeev  

Rose Gottemoeller is now running some of the sessions on the American side. 

Frank von Hippel  

Yes. And those meetings were quite important during the Gorbachev times when Richard Garwin – who was a great expert on all the ways that you could neutralize ballistic missile defense – had discussions under those auspices with Velikhov and another of Velikhov’s committees, which was the Soviet Academy counterpart to the US Academy committee. 

Metta Spencer  

How do they manage their secrets? Both sides most certainly have lots and lots of military secrets. How do they draw the boundaries? When you’re going to have a meeting, how do you plan it and how do you know whether you’re going close to talking about something you’re not supposed to?

Roald Sagdeev  

I think all the people had a lot of experience. Some of the members of these committees were coming from the military industrial complex. I also remember there was always some kind of interaction with the Central Committee of the Communist Party. So, before we would go to meet our American counterparts, we would have to get advice from the Soviet government and so on. It was very important to have this interaction. Of course, what was most important was that the participants had an understanding of what could be discussed and what should be kept secret. 

Metta Spencer  

Were there – or even now are there – really important things that should be known for the sake of making progress with disarmament or rapprochement of any kind that are not known and cannot be shared? Are you worried about censorship and secrecy or not? 

Frank von Hippel  

Physics is not classified. And, so you can – without talking about the specific designs of specific weapons – talk about generic approaches to nuclear arms control. So, I think it’s not that big of an impediment. 

Metta Spencer  

Okay. But let’s say, before the Soviets developed their own nuclear bomb, there would have been a time when Americans knew how and probably would have been very, very cautious about talking to Soviet scientists, right? Because they might give away some information that might be helpful in speeding up the development of a nuclear bomb. Am I wrong?

Frank von Hippel  

Yeah. But, the mantra of the Manhattan Project scientists – the World War II Manhattan Project nuclear program – when they came out, their mantra was: “There is no secret. There is no defense.” Once it had been demonstrated that you could make a nuclear weapon, it was pretty straightforward.

Metta Spencer  

Well, then it was a matter of time until it would be by others. But I think everybody was surprised at how quickly the Soviets developed it.

Roald Sagdeev  

Yeah, I think by the mid-1950s, it was already clear that both sides were equally knowledgeable about all the things. It was not a big deal. Secrets were on the technical side, on the details. But at such meetings, we never spoke about any such technical details. 

Metta Spencer  

I see.

Roald Sagdeev  

I remember there were several incidents when it was important to talk about some details. On the American side in the early 1980s, there was a kind of concern about whether the Soviets knew some particular tricks of how to stop a rocket that was accidentally launched while carrying nuclear weapons. The Americans were talking about a radio signal that could be sent to self-destruct and stop the rocket before it delivered any damage.  I remember they were telling us about this and asking if we were familiar with such technologies. The name was PAL – I think Frank knows it – Permissive Action Links. This system can self-destruct something which was launched. So, we then asked the Soviet authorities if they were interested in such things and that the Americans could explain the principle. We got the answer: “Oh, don’t worry. We also have a similar system.” 

Metta Spencer  

I thought there really wasn’t such a system. That once these things are launched, you can’t call them back or can’t undo it.

Roald Sagdeev  

I think a probable trigger to develop such system was the famous movie Dr. Strangelove.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah.

Frank von Hippel  

These Permissive Action Links are codes that are like a combination lock in the weapon which are activated. In the case of missiles, I don’t think you can, in fact, stop it. There was the concern that the Soviets might learn the code and then they could send the radio signal and prevent it. So, in fact, when the US has tests of nuclear missiles, it does have these systems in there in case the missile flies in the wrong direction. But, in the actual nuclear armed missiles they don’t have these safety systems. Once it’s launched, it can’t be recalled. This scared a lot of people. It still does. And I think that was one of the motivations that Reagan had when he proposed the abolition of ballistic missiles. He wanted to go back to bombers, which you could recall.

Metta Spencer  

Well, you can see the point. When do you feel things begin to fall apart? I mean, we know the history of the coup and all that, but I’m not sure from the standpoint of scientists. You had this strong interaction going on and cooperation. It sounded like you were the best of friends. But somehow that ended. I wonder if from your point of view, what was that landing like? Was that a hard landing? Did you sense things going wrong that that could have been fixed? What what went wrong when the Happy Days of ending the Cold War stopped?

Roald Sagdeev  

I think on the political front there was probably some kind of psychological feeling that was dominant in part of the American political elite. Triumphalism. “Oh, we have defeated the Soviet Union. We should not worry anymore.” There was probably such a feeling. And this feeling or something else finally lead to George W. Bush’s administration’s decision to abandon the ABM treaty. I think this was one of the biggest blunders in post-Cold War development. 

Frank von Hippel  

There was also NATO expansion which really triggered off Russian paranoia that we were removing the buffer that they had created at the end of World War II to prevent an invasion. I think then Putin really sort of came in and we became enemies again.

Roald Sagdeev  

I have an interesting story about the change in Putin’s thoughts. Early in his presidency, Susan Eisenhower and I were invited to meet with him in Moscow. We had a private tea party at his dacha outside of Moscow. He offered to explain to us his vision of what’s happening. He said: “Look, we have a several thousand-kilometer-long common border with China. On the Russian side of the border, it’s almost empty with very little population. The Far East of Siberia is at a great risk. This is why we need a real strategic partnership with the United States.” Imagine, this [being said] in January of 1993. What’s happening now is that he is almost embracing the Chinese. 

Metta Spencer  

Okay. What do you think flipped him? I never liked Yeltsin, but I don’t think he was the one that turned everything sour. Looking back, I cannot reconstruct how things went from good to really pretty bad. I do know that the shock therapy thing seems to have affected public opinion in Russia, because I was going to institutes like the Institute of USA and Canada and so on. It used to be that everybody was so enthusiastic about meeting me or any Western academic. But within a few months, when I would go there and meet people, I was getting real personal hostility, as if I had personally caused the shock therapy. But this was also a time when I’d seen people selling their furniture and their clothing and their belongings out on the street for money or anything. So, clearly the shock therapy had a very bad influence on public opinion. But it is my impression that Yeltsin and Clinton stayed very friendly towards each other straight through. I kind of don’t think that was the influence that really made for what looks like a renewal of the Cold War. I would like your thoughts on that period. 

Roald Sagdeev  

I think the chemistry between Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin was exactly like that. They often spoke privately. Recently, some of the documents related to their interactions were released and published in Russia. One particular detail that I remember is that Clinton was warning Yeltsin to prepare for the news that they were going to do something with NATO in Europe. Yeltsin’s reaction was: “Can you please wait a few months? Because I am going for re-election.  Please do not spoil my chance of re-election.” 

Metta Spencer  

Well, he didn’t have much chance of honest re-election anyway. But I’ve heard that Clinton sent people to help him. You know, election officials, who knew how to rig things.

Roald Sagdeev  

The Russians call them political technologists. Those who know how to prepare for the elections. 

Metta Spencer  

Yeah. That didn’t sound too good to me. Okay. Now you left Russia and you seem to be able to go back. How did they react when you – so-called, if you don’t mind the expression – defected? 

Roald Sagdeev  

What happened? Velikhov later told me the whole story. The government created a special committee to evaluate potential leaks of national secrets. And Velikhov was a member of this committee. And he told me finally, after a number of sessions, they decided that the risk was zero because whatever this guy [I] knew was already obsolete and outdated. 

Metta Spencer  

Frank, do you remember that period and when things were on the downslide what was going wrong from your point of view?

Frank von Hippel  

Well, during the Yeltsin period, I was in the White House for a year and a half. We were working on a cooperative program to help the Russians strengthen the security over their nuclear materials. So, things were still I wide open there. But then after Putin came in, I think I made one trip to Arzamas [Arzamas-16] which was the second time I went. I actually went with my wife. We were invited and it was very difficult. They had difficulty getting us in. The idea of Americans visiting their sensitive installations was becoming very, very unpopular. And we could see that the security people around Putin were taking over and shutting down these sensitive visits. Roald would know whether a bubble formed around Putin where it became difficult for independent scientists to really have an impact at some point. 

Roald Sagdeev  

I think that reflects the story. Velikhov was still influential in the early part of Putin’s presidency. I don’t think so now. I have not seen him have serious influence during the last 10 years. 

Metta Spencer  

Well, when I talked to him, he was already sour on Gorbachev. And I wonder how much that kind of thing influenced public opinion and even the establishment. Toward the end of Gorbachev’s period, they really thought he was messing up badly, especially with the economy and of course with the rise of these nationalistic movements. I don’t know whether that was his perspective or not, but he was and some of the other people I met – like [Georgy] Arbatov – became quite critical of Gorbachev at a time when I thought Gorbachev needed a lot of help and support. I don’t know what it was like for people talking among scientists though and how much that influenced cooperation with Western scientists.

Roald Sagdeev  

I remember the days when and how Arbatov actually kind of slowly broke up with Gorbachev. And later on, Yeltsin appointed Arbatov as his advisor. I had almost a similar past in summer of 1988 because of some disagreement – not on science, but on internal political changes in perestroika. I also was excommunicated by Gorbachev. 

Metta Spencer  

Well, all right. So, there was a downhill slide. And it’s kind of kind of sad. Very sad, because if you guys were still riding high, we’d have solved all our problems long ago. And I think we’ve come toward the end of our time. Is there anything anybody would like to add that we haven’t covered? A recollection of any kind or advice? 

Frank von Hippel  

I’ll just add that public engagement with nuclear weapons issues is much less now than it was at that time. I think it was because people thought that the problem and danger, with the Cold War over, was gone. And I think the danger has always been accidental nuclear war happening without anybody intending to. I think that danger is still with us. 

Metta Spencer  

Absolutely. 

Frank von Hippel  

So, we’ve been trying to remind the public of that.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah, I agree. Thank you so much. This is wonderful. I’ve really enjoyed it. And I think somebody is gonna find this useful someday. Thank you both. It’s been fun.

Roald Sagdeev  

Thank you, Metta. Keep going on with your program.

Metta Spencer  

I will.

T248. Werbos, Computers, and God

346- Social Democracy

346- Social Democracy

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number: 346 
Panelists: Ed Broadbent
Host: Metta Spencer

Date Aired:  11 October 2021
Date Transcribed and Verified:  8 November 2021
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits: Adam Wynne

Synopsis: Ed Broadbent led the NDP for 15 years, then the government-funded institute Rights and Democracy and now the Broadbent Institute, which promotes social democracy.

Metta Spencer  

Hi, I’m Metta Spencer. If you are a Canadian social democrat or NDP person, this is your day. You get to talk to or listen to your biggest hero: Ed Broadbent. And this is going to be a real treat for me because I have admired this man for many, many years. And now I get an hour with him. So, hang on there, we’re going to have a conversation about social democracy. He’s in Ottawa, I think. Is that where you live nowadays? 

Ed Broadbent  

Yes, indeed. That’s where I am. 

Metta Spencer  

Well, good morning, Ed Broadbent. Hi. 

Ed Broadbent  

Good morning to you. It’s a pleasure to be with you.

Metta Spencer  

Let’s have some conversation about social democracy. We already started a little while ago, when I said that I just been reading a Wikipedia article which only muddied the subject and tried to make a distinction between social democracy and democratic socialism, which I thought was bizarre. But you were going to try to clear my head and we ran out of time. So, start over, will you? 

Ed Broadbent  

Let me begin by saying I always used to use it when I was an active politician. I use the terms synonymously: democratic socialism or social democracy. But historically, some people quite plausibly in the way I talk now – academically – do make a distinction between social democracy and socialism. The distinction being social democracy has a role for the private sector in terms of market mechanisms, which socialism as such does not. And so that’s a distinction. Both, I would emphasize are democratic in nature. But the one, as I say, has a clear role for the private sector. Maybe we’ll get to elaborate on what that means in practice.

Metta Spencer  

Are there parties, some of which call themselves Social Democrats and others say they’re only Democratic Socialists? Are there real party differences or is this a matter of picking a certain kind of adjective?

Ed Broadbent  

Largely, it’s a matter of picking a certain kind of adjective now.

Metta Spencer  

Okay. All right, then I don’t think we need to labour the subject, because I find it tedious.

Ed Broadbent  

Pretty boring, right?

Metta Spencer  

But what isn’t tedious is talking with you about your own life and your own career line. Because, of course, the first time I knew about you, you were the leader of the NDP and I was an acolyte. But I haven’t been so engaged lately and nor have you. For how many years? You stepped down from that role when? 

Ed Broadbent  

In 1989. At the end of the year in 1989. After some 21 years in politics. 15 of which were as leader of the NDP.

Metta Spencer  

All right. So, after that, at some point, you’ve had two post-career careers. In that you’ve been the leader of two different institutions and you probably have done other things that I don’t know about, which I would like to hear about. But tell me… I’d like to explore these two roles or these two institutions.

Ed Broadbent  

The first one was a creation of the Government of Canada: an institution that became known as Rights and Democracy. And it was set up following the recommendation of then all three parties in the House of Commons: the Liberals, Conservatives, and New Democrats. A committee report that looked at violence in Central America in the 1980s provided a foundation for saying that the Government of Canada should create an institution that would operate at arm’s length from the government and not controlled by the government. The mandate of which would be the promotion of the UN system of human rights abroad. So it had a mandate not for human rights within Canada, but for human rights activism abroad. So, the Covenant on Political and Civil Rights and the Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights were to be promoted abroad and that institution was set up. And then if I may say so: it thrived. Not just while I was there, but after Warren Allmand – a very distinguished former cabinet minister in Pierre Trudeau’s government. Warren Allmand succeeded me and there were a couple of other executive directors too. And the activity was very well recognized internationally, by activist groups all over the world and by UN agencies interested in the promotion of rights. Unfortunately, Stephen Harper shut it down. He was the first prime minister to actually interfere in the operation of the institution. Up to then, both liberal and conservative Prime Ministers kept their hands off and respected the integrity and independence of Rights and Democracy. But Mr. Harper chose, first of all, to appoint some people that were highly partisan and highly – and I choose my words with care – right-wing in terms of international politics. And this led to major clashes between the boards of directors and the staff of Rights and Democracy. And ultimately, what happened is that the Harper government shut it down because it basically couldn’t tolerate an institution that was operating independently of the Government of Canada.

Metta Spencer  

Well, let’s consider what were some of those disputes. Was this that the Harper appointees favoured some right-wing governments that actually were not mindful of human rights or even were abusive themselves? 

Ed Broadbent  

The principle focus for the government – the Harper government – was on Israel and Middle East politics. 

Metta Spencer  

Oh boy.

Ed Broadbent  

And what it objected to specifically was the recognition of the support of human rights groups that worked both within the Occupied Territories and within Israel itself. There were human rights groups – internationally recognized to be independent – that made criticism at different and various times both of certain Palestinian activities and of the activities of the Government of Israel. And the Harper government could not tolerate and would not tolerate any criticism of Israel. And it was tragic that this kind of focus of the Harper government, as I say: the first Canadian government to actually interfere with the running of Rights and Democracy. This narrow and intolerant attitude by Mr. Harper led to conflict and then ultimately they decided to shut the institution down. Though I repeat, by then I had no direct connection at that point. But other people who succeeded me and a very lively activist staff had all obtained international recognition for very good work. But the Harper government, as I say, could not tolerate or would not tolerate independent activity in this when it came to Middle Eastern politics.

Metta Spencer  

Let me go slightly off of topic because what you’re reminding me of is the recent kerfuffle in Britain about Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership of a group that was deemed anti-Semitic. I was astonished that left wing parties or whole movements or whole parties in a Western society could still be called something like anti-Semitic. But of course, I haven’t lived in Britain. I have no idea what they’re all about. Is this something that happens? I mean I had been dumbfounded. Who would call anybody anti-Semitic anymore?

Ed Broadbent  

There are groups that are accused of it, but in the case of the British Labour Party – and I won’t pretend to know in detail and want to emphasize that – but the accusation was that the then leader Mr. Corbyn failed to deal with certain members of the Labour Party who had indulged in anti-Semitic activity. Not that the Labour Party itself was, nor was it suggested that Mr. Corbyn was himself. He was criticized for the failure of leadership, if you like, for not dealing with accusations of anti-Semitism accurately. I would say you have this problem in almost any party in the Western world. There will be and can be elements of anti-Semitism or Islamophobia or whatever that occur with particular individuals. But we shouldn’t make blanket claims about the parties or institutions that they happen to belong to.

Metta Spencer  

We could veer off and talk about what’s going on in the Green Party right now in Canada. A very similar thing, but I think that would be really going afield. Let’s go back to where you were. You were telling me about the demise of the Rights and Democracy. What was the entire title of it?

Ed Broadbent  

While the original title in legislation is one of those linguistic abominations and it was the International Center for Human Rights and Democratic Development. That’s what it was when I became the Executive Director. That eventually became sensibly just called Rights and Democracy.

Metta Spencer  

Okay. Now there are other similar organizations run by other western states, right?

Ed Broadbent  

Not many. There are some that some Scandinavian governments have. But this was, at the time, a particularly important Canadian initiative. As I said, it was supported by all the parties in the House of Commons at the time and it was given, for example, if I can make a comparison with the United States: the US Congress has established a couple of entities that promote democracy abroad, but they are more closely and directly affiliated with either the Democratic Party or Republican Party in the US. And what was distinctive about the Canadian initiative, is that it was not to be associated with any political party as such, but was to have a mandate to promote the UN system of human rights and democratic development – as opposed to say, the American model, which is to promote a version of American democracy abroad. So, the Canadian government in its wisdom said: “Oh, let’s have really international body here.” And we were. We got accredited by the UN and we were recognized by governments. When I went as the Executive Director to Latin American countries or in South Asia, I was normally greeted by the Prime minister or President. Because on the one hand, we were a creation of the Government of Canada. So, I had that status. But on the other hand, our mandate was independent and not partisan and that came to be recognized, understood, and supported broadly abroad.

Metta Spencer  

Well, I remember feeling very disappointed at the time. It was a big mess. But now, when did your own Broadbent Institute get founded and how did that come about?

Ed Broadbent  

Well, just about 10 years ago. To be precise, it was an emanation of conversations with Jack Layton and other associates of mine. Near the end of Jack’s life, some of us had for some time talked about the need for an institution that would be independent of the party in this context, but specifically social democratic. So, it would be clear in terms of the kind of political system we wanted to promote. I was asked by a number of senior staff people of Jack Layton at that time if I would lend my name to it and would I be it first active chairperson. And I agreed to that, because I thought it was a good idea to have such a body that would function independently of the party, but have social democratic values. So that’s how it came into being.

Metta Spencer  

Is it funded by the NDP or independently? 

Ed Broadbent  

Initially, money came from the NDP for the first year and its start up. But since then, it’s been totally independent of the NDP in every regard. We’re not, of course, hostile to the NDP no more than we’re hostile to other parties. But we function as a social democratic [organization].

Metta Spencer  

My guess is this… tell me if I’m wrong: The lines between a number of centrist to leftist parties globally are blurring now. That you can’t just by looking at a platform guess whether a particular platform represents one party or another one necessarily. Is that fair to say? 

Ed Broadbent  

I actually think it is going in the other direction now. 

Metta Spencer  

Really? 

Ed Broadbent  

A few years ago, particularly in association with Tony Blair, as leader of the Labour Party and subsequently Prime Minister, moved his particular party to the right. Clearly in terms of its political behavior and accepting a high degree of marketization of life. Quite a conscious turning its back on social democratic views as they traditionally have been understood while there followed a period where the center left parties – like Labour or the German Social Democrats or the French Socialist Party – moved to the right or to the center. And then the distinctions between the parties became very blurred indeed. But I would argue that there’s been a reemergence now of more clear classification of parties. Look at what’s happening in the United States, for example. There is a clear and distinct ideological as well as programmatic distinction between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. There’s much clearer differences between those two parties now than there were in a pre-Trump era and the pre-Biden era. Mr. Biden clearly has moved the democratic party or the Democratic Party moved him well to the left of where they were under Mr. Obama or even earlier presidents. The present leader and president of the Democratic party with him in the United States – Mr. Biden – has really reconstituted a kind of Rooseveltian activism. A positive view of the state that would intervene to produce greater equality in US society. So, that is making a distinction between parties in the US, not a blurring of them.

Ed Broadbent  

Well, yes, but I wasn’t meaning that the right wing and the center and left are all blurring together, but only that the center and the left are closer together. For example, in Germany now: I think they’re quite confused about what they’re going to have by way of a new government, because I guess the SDP won, but by hair’s breadth. Right? 

Ed Broadbent  

Right.

Metta Spencer  

As of this minute, maybe if I didn’t look at the newspaper today, I would be wrong. 

[both chuckle] 

Metta Spencer  

I would assume, of course, any centrist government for the Christian Democrats, for example, would have a hard time making any kind of coalition with the AfD. The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is clearly a right-wing party. You couldn’t make a deal with those guys. But, for them to make a deal with the Greens, for example, or the SPD would be easy. Even the Christian Democrats and SPD and Greens could. Could that blur together? 

Ed Broadbent  

Yes. And Ms. Merkel has – and I say this as a social democrat about her as a Christian Democrat – provided a high degree of quite civilized and stabilizing government over Germany for the past 15 years. A remarkable accomplishment. And has done so very often – which does go back to your point – with the support in her government of the SPD. The man who is now leading the SPD and has a legitimate claim to be the next Chancellor was her Minister of Finance. He is now claiming with a great mandate of about 1.5% over the Christian Democrats, his right to form a government which is trying to do with – as I understand it – the Green Party and a more market oriented smaller party. But in Germany, your contention about the parties moving closer together, I think is accurate. And a number of people in the SPD have been critical of the leadership of the SPD for becoming too conservative. But we’ll see what happens now.

Metta Spencer  

You wouldn’t expect very dramatic changes of policy? Well, in fact, what changes would you expect if the SPD were flying under its own colours entirely? What kinds of changes would you expect Germany to take from the Merkel government?

Ed Broadbent  

Well, labour market policies, workers trade union rights, and a focus on employment prospects in general and inequality in the tax system. The SPD have talked about that as well. So, there would be – in those instances – moves, I think, by the SPD in a clear social democratic direction.

Metta Spencer  

How different would you say these two wings of the Democratic Party are? I would assume that you would call – well, Bernie Sanders himself would call himself a socialist and so does Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and others. And yet, by and large, the project that they propose – the Green New Deal – I would say that Biden has bought into a lot of it.

Ed Broadbent  

You’re raising the question about the left wing of the Democratic Party and how different is it from the other parts of the party? Is that the question? Well, it is distinctly different, I think. The Bernie Sanders wing – if I can put it like that – is very much like the NDP actually, if you look at their program. And whether it’s on the environment, whether it’s dealing with inequality, you name it, it’s a left social democratic agenda of very serious proportions that everybody in the US has acknowledged has really shifted the democratic party to the left and with great support of the American people. Overwhelmingly. The interesting discussion – just in the past few days before our discussion here – is the decision of Mr. Biden in choosing between the two branches of his party that are currently in some, you know, conflict over what kind of agenda they would support. He’s come down on the side of the of the left wing of the Democratic Party. And correctly pointing out, I believe, that the things they are advocating are supported by the majority of Americans. And polling shows that. So, there are differences between the wings in the Democratic Party, as there are in most democratic parties. But here they can be more serious in conflict, because of the institutional structure of the American government and of the need to have so many senate votes and so many house votes. For example, they need every vote in the Senate that they can get to pass legislation and they’re having trouble with some obstreperous so-called moderates that may deny them the agenda because of the 50-vote requirement. Well, because of these factors, the resolution of the differences between the wings of the Democratic Party are quite serious in their political consequences. So, one hopes, I hope, there’s a man who, broadly speaking, is supported the democratic agenda. Mr. Biden, I hope he’s successful in bringing the two wings of his party together.

Metta Spencer  

Okay, now they would call their platform the Green New Deal, right? And there are in other countries similar platforms, proposals, and whole agendas for social change, which emphasize a lot of green, environmental, and climate change things. Compare that to the difference between the Green Party and the NDP in Canada. Would you call the Green New Deal comparable to the NDPs position on everything? Or how would it differ?

Ed Broadbent  

 I can’t get into detail because I don’t know the American details well enough to do that. But in broad principles, I can. I mean, the Green New Deal in the US and similar to the Green New Deal of the NDP here is to help for a just transition away from fossil fuels dependencies. In both countries, the progressive elements favour that kind of approach. It will break down in different details, as the different requirements of the two countries would necessitate. But philosophically, it’s the same orientation. So, an American that was supporting the Green New Deal in the US and moved to Canada would be happily, I think, situated in the NDP and could well be happily and socially associated with the Green Party as well.

Metta Spencer  

Okay, there’s the question. How compatible are these two parties? And if they’re so compatible, why aren’t they merged?

Ed Broadbent  

Well, I’ve felt that way for a long time. I didn’t see – as unbiased as I’m not – the necessity of creating a new Green Party when the NDP was leading in environmental matters in the House of Commons for many years. So, I think it was unnecessary. But I respect those who wanted to put perhaps a greater emphasis on environmental policies than was the case in the NDP. But I think it was a mistake politically. I think the NDP had a broad ranging environmental policy, as well as being concerned about inequality, for example. 

Metta Spencer  

Inequality, for sure, that seems to be the real hallmark of any Social Democratic Party. I was pretty enthusiastically a NDPer for a long, long time. And then I got mad. I really have two different grievances with the party and that is, in fact, I’m indifferent. I’m not very active at all in that regard, because I wish the NDP – and in the US the Green New Deal people – would include militarism as a problem. I would like to see a cut back on military spending and diversion of that funding to all kinds of other social projects, including a high emphasis on climate change issues. That bothers me the most. And then the time I really got mad at Jack Layton was when he would not support the carbon tax which Stéphane Dion was proposing at the time. You know and the basis for it was, I think, that the NDP is so fervently committed to labour and labor doesn’t want to lose jobs, so he wouldn’t take any stand in favour of carbon tax. But, the most important thing that can be done for climate change is a good, strong carbon tax. So, I’ve harbored my grievances all these years and now I’m going to dump them all over you.

Ed Broadbent  

I would agree with you on the carbon tax issue and the party is certainly, under its present leader, strongly supportive of the carbon tax and all its provincial elements, including the Ontario NDP. The British Columbia Government, I think, was the first provincial government to enter into an agreement with the federal government on a carbon tax. In any case, they support it. So, there’s broad support for a carbon tax now. Maybe I managed to block out of my memory Jack’s original position on the carbon tax. I quite honestly have forgot. I’m going to have to accept your word for this and check it out later. I’m sure you’re not just misleading me, but I had forgotten that at one point. As you say, Jack opposed the carbon tax. You’re quite sure of that, are you? 

Metta Spencer  

Oh, I wrote him a letter and scolded him and said I was quitting the party. 

Ed Broadbent  

That should have done it. 

Metta Spencer  

Well, he didn’t apologize. 

[both chuckle]

Metta Spencer  

Okay, well, we have gone around in a circuitous direction to what you really most want to talk about. The general principles of social democracy. I assume you are the quintessential representative of social democratic thinking in Canada. So, what are your principles, sir?

Ed Broadbent  

Well, we laid them out in the document that we adopted earlier this year. But if I can put it in broad terms there are two key elements, I believe, of any approach to a social democratic view of society. One is the abominable word decommodification; but it’s a word with rather precise meaning. The main meaning is to take out of the market mechanism in our life in our society, the production of certain goods and services and make them a matter of rights, instead of a matter or substance that you buy in the marketplace. That is an absolutely crucial idea. For example, when Tommy Douglas was working so many decades ago in good ol’ prairie Saskatchewan on the development of universal Medicare, he didn’t say to himself: “Well, is it cheaper or is it more efficient?” Although it’s important to have these qualities, he said: “Should human beings have this as a right? Should they have access to health care because they’re human beings and citizens of Canada?” And not because they can buy it in the marketplace. And that is so crucial. I mean, if you look at the broad history of Canada, one of the first things to be commodified – and we never think of it in these terms – was high school education. In the 19th century, if you were going to educate your children beyond the elementary school level you would pay to go to some other institution to provide what we call high school level education today. Well, the decision was appropriately made by governments pretty soon to establish – as a universal right for kids growing up – access to high school education and not just elementary school. And that principle has been extended to health care. And we in the NDP, for example, have been leading the battle to extend it to pharmacare in our generation as a national program and we’re, of course, first to advocate childcare. Low-cost provision by government of childcare facilities that are now being done, acknowledged by a Liberal government that has been promising to do it, mind you, for about 30 years. But the principle – I come back to that – is that you fight for these things, because they are rights of citizenship and you want to take them out of the market. Not necessarily because they’re cheaper, although they normally are if we provide it as a universal service – as we found out, for example, in the senior citizens’ long-term care residences.

Metta Spencer  

I want to come back to that. I remember reading a book you wrote some 15 years ago or so. The thing that I came away with, which impressed me most and I still remember, is that you were arguing that whenever you want to provide a new service for – probably the people who need it will be the poor in the society – the smart thing to do is not just to give a means test and offer it to the people who fit within the criteria of poverty or whatever need would entitle them to it, but rather to make it equally available to all citizens. And that is much more sustainable and it causes less divisiveness within the society. 

Ed Broadbent  

Yes.

Metta Spencer  

 I remember being very impressed by that argument. And I presume you still maintain that? 

Ed Broadbent  

Very much so. That’s the reason behind those – whatever party they happen to be in and overwhelmingly they’re in the NDP – people who advocate universal programs is for that reason. It’s to build up solidarity, by all citizens that we all get that benefit. And then if, you know, people say: “Well, why should rich people have it?” Well, rich people have access to elementary schools, just like the rest of the kids in the neighborhood. And then they pay or ought to pay just proportionately more in their income taxes. The higher income you have, the greater should be your contribution to the common good. And that common good would include things like childcare, for example, in the future pharmacare, or the Canada Pension. These are benefits that should be available to all Canadians and paid for on the basis of capacity to pay. And so, that’s a key idea, if I may say so, about social democracy. It’s to launch into programs like that and to get them out of the market. So, growing up, we don’t have to compete in the market for these things in our lives. We get them because they’re provided by the state, but we all pay taxes into the state too. So, it’s not a free ride, right? And the other the other aspect of social democracy that I think is key, is the notion of equality. Inequality is a big concern, especially in a market economy. By definition in the market economy, you’re going to have inequalities and a serious social democratic government addresses these inequalities, primarily by the taxes so that those who have more will pay more of their share. And as is being talked about. Literally today yet another report was published – from the United Nations, I understand – which is showing how so many rich people around the world are managing to create tax havens where they ship their money off and they have it in these havens and don’t pay any income tax on it. Well, that’s got to change.

Metta Spencer  

Absolutely it has to change. But also, I wonder, have you officially personally taken a position about wealth tax? Reading Piketty – 10 years ago or so – I was immediately impressed with the idea that that would be a big step forward to actually tax not only income, but even more to tax wealth, because the inequalities that have already been created are self-maintaining and even growing. Obviously, we know that the rich have gotten richer, even during the COVID epidemic.

Ed Broadbent  

Yes, and by accumulation of wealth and not just income. And yes, we at the Broadbent Institute favour a wealth tax and I’m pleased to see that the New Democratic Party in the recent federal election, under Mr. Singh, has promoted the idea of a wealth tax as well. So that too would contribute to a society of greater equality. The other thing that I would stress about more equality being necessary is that the studies have shown that the more equality you have, the overall effect on society is better. Health outcomes, for example, are much better and more equally distributed if you have a reduced gap between people on the basis of income. Crime rates are lower in the more equal society you have. Almost every social indicator shows more positive outcomes the more equal the society is. So, the two key ideas of social democracy, among others, but the two key are: taking certain values out of the market – like health care – and providing them as rights; and secondly, to be concerned about inequality and use the power of government – democratic government and taxation – to reduce inequalities in our society,

Metta Spencer  

I read some of the positions on your website under the heading of social democracy and they seem to have to deal with economic issues. One of them being long term care. And I noticed in today’s paper, that there’s again talk about changing the system. Now I have a friend – Pauline Rosenau – who was on this talk show last week. She was part of a study of long-term care or nursing home care in, I think, five or six different countries. So, it was a major study just not too long ago. And they found the non-profit nursing homes were much better by and large than the profit seeking ones. They actually took better care of people. Canada wasn’t really all that much better – well, the US was the worst, as you might expect – but Canada was not at the top. I think Sweden was maybe at the top and some of the other countries that you would expect to be. But now, I believe your Institute and the website have proposed that long term care be part of Medicare, that it’s just another right or entitlement which everybody would have. Now, I don’t know how far the Canadian government has gone in that direction, I know that there’s some kind of care available to everybody who’s old and weak, but I don’t know what kind of changes would be involved in simply making it an entitlement for everybody.

Ed Broadbent  

Well, it would be a substantial bureaucratic change to implement it that way. But the wording is designed to show that it would become a right like Medicare. Like, you know, we now have access to any hospital treatment that we want regardless of your income. Similarly, we’re saying there should be access to long term care residences on that basis. Now, that would mean by necessity that you have to create literally 1000s of new spaces across Canada to make that an operational right. But that’s exactly what needs to be done. And it can’t be done overnight. As you’ve indicated, studies have shown that not-for-profit, long-term care has better results, better outcomes for patients than as the profit-oriented model. So, we have to go into the direction of non-profit public facilities and that would take time to implement, but every aspect of our healthcare system has taken time to implement. And if we started on that now with an agenda, with so much in the federal expenditure each year, over time we can make that an effective right. And of course, in this domain, it should be a cost sharing arrangement of some kind with the provinces, just as existing health care funding is.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah. Also, the paper I read today was talking about just plain, sort-of humanizing the experience of living in a long-term facility. That people now really don’t have much choice of what time of day they’re to eat or the what the menu is going to be or how to spend their time. They don’t have enough help. This recommended that at least four hours a day of direct personal assistance be available to every person living in such a place. As well, as the residents being allowed to plan their own day and schedule, whether they want to move around and, you know, how they’re going to spend their time and have a little bit more [freedom] and be treated as a home instead of a patient in a hospital.

Ed Broadbent  

That sounds good to me. I may get there one day.

Metta Spencer  

Well, you and me too. Any day now. 

[both chuckle]

Metta Spencer  

I do like that idea. So okay, and now, what do you foresee for the future of the Broadbent Institute? By the way, I see it as focusing very much on just Canada. 

Ed Broadbent  

That’s true.

Metta Spencer  

And also, very much on the economic end of things. I didn’t see much about foreign policy or certainly about military policy. 

Ed Broadbent  

That’s true, we have limited resources and we are trying to be sure we know what we’re talking about. We’ve quite consciously stayed away from foreign policy, for example, as an institute. Of course, we’ll take part as individuals in foreign policy debates and related matters. But as an institute, we’ve decided not to do that at this point, because of the limitations of resources and funding. We have to generate donations to keep ourselves in existence. And so, we’ve just drawn the line at certain kinds of activity.

Metta Spencer  

When you talk about social democracy, would you say there is a general orientation with respect to international relations or is it just a question of how to allocate economic resources?

Ed Broadbent  

No. I would say social democratic philosophy has as its basic, important raison d’être the pursuit of peace. A man that I was close to for a number of years was Willy Brandt who had been Chancellor of West Germany. He had a very distinguished reputation: an anti-Nazi career as a young man and then became Chancellor of West Germany. And he was known for his so called Ostpolitik which was an opening or trying to open relations between the West and the East, which at that time were divided between the Communist world and the non-Communist world. And he strove quite seriously – I know from talking to him and from observing them- to have built peace-making institutions globally. So, my own view is that social democracy in its essence really does want to work towards a peaceful world and with much less emphasis on spending on militarization. To get away from that as a philosophic goal there’s no doubt about that in my view.

Metta Spencer  

I think for a lot of peace organizations – I’m thinking, for example, of the International Peace Bureau, which I was engaged with on the Steering Committee a long-time ago and a number of them and Peace Magazine and our own Project Save the World, which is what I’m doing right now – the orientation has been more lately toward a broadening of the concept of what are the issues that have to be considered along with just the military. That is, I think, the connection with global warming, you can’t ignore it. The connection to famine, the possibility of pandemics as we’ve seen. We talk about radioactive contamination and the risks of, you know, mining hazards and things like that or other kinds of exposure to radiation or radioactivity. And cyber risks. All of those are part of what we consider not just peace, but a broader agenda. I think really most of these issues need to be addressed comprehensively with a with a big platform with a lot of items on it.

Ed Broadbent  

I would say you’re absolutely right. I would agree with all of the above. For sure.  I’m afraid I’m going to have to go.

Metta Spencer  

Well, it’s time anyway. We’ve used up our time pretty much and I have enjoyed very much the opportunity to talk to you.

Ed Broadbent  

I’ve enjoyed it too. Good luck in your work.

Metta Spencer  

Thank you so much. And in yours. Continue with your wonderful leadership.

Ed Broadbent  

Thank you. Take care. Bye bye.

T248. Werbos, Computers, and God

288 – Afghanistan and Non-Proliferation

288 - Afghanistan and Nonproliferation

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number: 288
Panelists: Richard Denton, Corey Levine, Tariq Rauf, Doug Saunders, and Erika Simpson
Host: Metta Spencer

Date Aired:  13 July 2021
Date Transcribed and Verified: 7 September 2021
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits: Adam Wynne

Synopsis: The Afghanistan War has changed quickly since the US and NATO troops withdrew. Corey Levine, Tariq Rauf, Erika Simpson and Richard Denton expect a Taliban win.

Metta Spencer  

Hi, I’m Metta Spencer. Today we’re going to go talk about nuclear non-proliferation, because there is a Review Conference coming up in a few months and we’re going to consider what should be done about it. But we have some very diverse secondary interests of all the people on this panel today, somebody is interested in Cuba, somebody else is interested in Afghanistan. So, we may go off in who knows what direction because this is a Schmooze Day. That means you don’t have to stick to the topic. It means you can talk about whatever is of interest. So, I have five brilliant panelists today visiting me on my computer. And I will go from left to right: Doug Saunders is a correspondent or a columnist for The Globe and Mail and he’s been explaining to Erika that he’s about to go off to Germany in another month or so for another extended stay to do some research for a book. So next is Erika Simpson, who is an Associate Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at Western University in London, Ontario. She’s an expert on NATO. And here in the middle of this list on my screen is Corey Levine. Corey is in Victoria, British Columbia at the moment, but just recently returned from a stint in Afghanistan, where you were working for UN Women. And in Vienna, we have Tariq Rauf who is a longtime consultant, an expert on all things nuclear – so nuclear weapons and I know that you also worked at the IAEA, so you must have your fingers in other pies as well. So hello, Tariq. And in Sudbury, Richard Denton has just joined us. He is the Co-Chair of the North American Chapter of International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, which means that he knows a thing or two about nuclear weapons and also things like gamma rays. Why don’t we talk about the past and future of Afghanistan? What’s going to happen there? And what is already unfortunately happening? Corey, what’s going on? 

Corey Levine  

Well, that is a very interesting question. It a $64 billion question. I’ve only been back a couple of weeks. And even in the couple of weeks since I’ve returned, things have changed with lightning speed on the ground. I don’t think anyone expected the Taliban to militarily make as many gains as they’ve had. They’re taking over DACs – District Administrative Centers – left, right, and center. They’re basically knocking on the doors of the major urban centers – for example, Kandahar. They’ve actually taken over some of the provincial capitals already. So, you know, experts have been predicting that the government would fall within six months. I’m wondering if that timeline can be pushed up. I have no idea of what’s going to happen with Kabul. I would be interested to hear what Doug, Erika, and others may have to say about that. The Taliban have claimed that they’ve changed their stripes – that “We’ve changed. We are now a new modern, forward Taliban” – but [there are] reports coming in from the areas that they control – and I was actually talking with an Afghan women parliamentarian last night – are extremely concerning. We know that they’re closing girls’ schools. The parliamentarian was informing me that the Taliban are back to their tactics of night letters, sending night letters to women in Nangarhar province saying: “If you don’t stop working, we can’t be blamed for what may happen to you.” Women are being beaten for not having Mahrams, which are male relative escorts in the streets. And more horror stories like this. So, this is what constituents are reporting to their parliamentarians.

Tariq Rauf  

I’ve been following it a little bit. And I agree with what Corey said. I am of the opinion that the Taliban have not changed their stripes. They are just being politic in what they are saying. And I think the report are a little bit exaggerated that they now control 85% of the country. Apparently, the Afghan forces in many remote areas have not been properly supplied because of corruption and they are running out of ammunition. So those who are soldiers are surrendering. But I think it will be quite a fight for them to take the major urban centers. And Afghanistan is lightly populated in in many different areas. So, I also see, I think, some sort of a civil war coming, unfortunately, because some of the warlords and tribal leaders will be activated who have different agendas than the Taliban themselves. And then we have the neighboring countries, Iran, Pakistan, China, Russia, they all have their different agendas. India as well. So, there will be some other proxy battles coming to Afghanistan. So I personally, unfortunately, am not very optimistic over the shorter to the medium term about stability, peace, human rights, and women’s rights in particular in Afghanistan.

Metta Spencer  

Erika? 

Erika Simpson  

Thank you, Metta.  I work on NATO issues, but I also work on Afghanistan and on security sector reform issues. So, on that topic, I wanted to mention that the Afghan national security forces are going to get 37 Blackhawk helicopters and all sorts of equipment from the US, although NATO has pulled out. So, the Italian, the Germans, and NATO have entirely pulled out as of last few weeks and the US is retaining some forces there to protect… I mean, I’m sympathetic Corey towards your argument about Kabul falling, but I think Kabul will not fall and the international airport will not fall, because internationally, that would look like Saigon in 1975 again. It would look terrible. And so, the US will be forced somehow to stay with a limited force and assisting the Afghan National Army, the Defense Force, and the Police. So on that score, I’m very sympathetic to what you’re saying, Corey, about what the Taliban is doing to women in the rural areas. But what I’m hearing from people in Afghanistan is that it’s a bit of propaganda – The New York Times – it’s a bit exaggerated about the number of districts. There are 400 districts. So, they’re saying that the Taliban have taken over – in the last few days – 160 [districts]. But the Afghan forces are saying that they’re securing them back again. So, Tariq’s point about a civil war is very valid as well, that there will be a civil war there for the long term for generations to come, but I’m optimistic that they’ll preserve the capital and perhaps Kandahar City.

Doug Saunders  

I’d be interested in hearing not how many districts the Taliban claimed to have achieved political control over, but how much of Afghanistan they have economic control over or control over trade routes. My knowledge of Afghanistan is out of date. I haven’t been there since a decade ago. But it always seemed to be true and it still seems to be true that whether a specific Afghan man was a fighter for the Afghan National Army or for the Taliban depended on the ability to pay him. And all the work we did found that the motivation for most Taliban fighters was self-interested economic concerns rather than necessarily ideology or anything. And that even during the height of the occupation and the military operations, Taliban related forces managed to control a large amount of the poppy economy and whatever there was of a non-poppy economy by controlling passage down roads and what farmers could grow and that sort of thing. So, I could imagine that would only get worse. I would say: if the Afghan government is stuck with Kabul is sort of a stronghold, that not going to be much of an Afghanistan. And I fear that bridge may already have been crossed. That we were never really able to give the Afghan government secure control over trade and economy.

Erika Simpson  

I think if I can add to what you’re saying, Doug, I think the only real difference now is that the Pakistan government is involved and is sending mercenaries in. So, I know the Afghanistan government has already captured 1417 Pakistani mercenaries. Pakistan is very involved in tipping that strategic area. I’d be curious what you think about the change [and] the shift in politics, because – as you know – Afghanistan has always been kind of a zone of fighting. So, if Pakistan takes over, how will that tip politics with India and with China? That’s interesting to me. I’m also obviously interested in women and schools and so on, but just looking at the larger strategic picture with Pakistan involved. 

Corey Levine  

To be clear, I’m not saying that Kabul is going to fall or won’t fall. There will be an incredible fight for it. That is for sure. It will take a long time to sort out what will happen to Kabul. So first of all, let me be clear on that. I do think the Taliban will be successful at taking over pretty much the rest of the country. In regards to Kabul, who knows what is going to happen. I think in the other urban centers – Herat, Jalalabad, Mazar-i-Sharif, and Kandahar – there’s also going to be problems. But I think to go back to Doug’s point, first of all: the Taliban is in the north now, which they had not been previously. They are controlling main trade roads and routes in and out of Afghanistan. Secondly, Pakistan is not the only spoiler in this conflict currently. There are mercenaries in there that are from many other countries, not just Pakistan. There is also ISIS in there. And other groups that didn’t exist when the Taliban controlled the country before. So, I think it’s a very different landscape than when the Taliban was in control of the country in the 1990s. I think Tariq already made the point that we have Iran in there. We have China and Russia, etcetera. Turkey has become a big player [too]. Someone mentioned the airport. The Americans negotiated with the Taliban to have the Turks take over control of Kabul airport. And, you know, in the end they agreed. The Taliban agreed to that. So, I think the airport is secure for the time being. But I’m just aghast at how things… as I said, I’ve only returned a couple of weeks and things have already changed lightning fast. Erika, your point about how many districts do the Taliban really control? We can’t know this, but they are advancing. Afghan security forces are surrendering. They are not putting up a fight, despite the billions of dollars that have been put into training. And one last point that I want to say – and actually the women parliamentarians were racing this with me last night – is the Afghan Air Force. Once it’s completely turned over to the Afghan Air Force to defend the sky, they will not be able to do that. 

Erika Simpson  

That’s the only part I disagree with you on, Corey, because they did buy a very good air defense system from the French about year ago and they purposely did so to not be reliant on the Americans. So, the Afghan Air Force is actually very capable and has been trained and will continue to be trained by the Americans. If we’re looking at air power, that’s the only point I disagree with you on. I actually think that they will be able to triumph. If that’s the word you want to use, I hate to say that. They will be able to – in terms of air power – protect the urban cities. But the devastation on the ground, we will not have reporters like Doug Saunders sending us grim and horrible photos, because nobody’s there. It’s going to be awful. It’s going to be a bloodbath. And past September. I don’t blame Joe Biden, I understand the reasoning for pulling out and for NATO pulling out after 20 years by 9/11, by September 11. But still, it must be awful for you knowing people on the ground, Corey, I’m very sympathetic. I wish we had more reporters.

Metta Spencer  

Does anybody have a theory about what could have been done differently that would have had a different outcome? This whole fiasco. 20 some years of nothing but trouble, confusion, and failure. What should have happened instead and was there any alternative?

Tariq Rauf  

I would like to focus more on what’s going to happen because what has happened has happened. I think we don’t have that much time. But I would sort of disagree with some of the points made. I don’t think the Taliban have agreed that the Turks will control the Kabul airport. I was just hearing some news conferences – supposedly from the Taliban spokesperson – and they are insisting that they will not accept the Turks or any foreign forces after the end of July… I forget what date that they mentioned. They specifically mentioned Turkey. So, I think this is still a question mark. Part of the challenge of the Afghan forces is supplying their far-flung units and the ones that are surrendering mainly are those that have run out of ammunition. And once they’re out of ammunition, their choice is either to be killed or to surrender. And unfortunately, some special forces that surrendered have been murdered in cold blood by the Taliban, including apparently some reports of the killing of seven pilots that they captured at some particular location. Even during the time of the Afghan Kings and then afterwards… Afghanistan has always been controlled by a number of warring warlords. The central power remains in Kabul as a sort of loose controlling thing. So, they’ve never really had an effective central government. I don’t know whether they will revert to that or not. And finally, NATO forces and the US forces never won the hearts and minds of the Afghan people. They basically hated most of these foreign forces. There are, of course, exceptions. But generally, the way the kill and capture missions of bursting into people’s houses in the middle of the night and going into areas where their women were staying insulted a lot of these people. They just felt insulted in terms of the way they were treated by soldiers of the international forces. Many of them were really not used to the cultural norms and were rarely perceived to be rude and so on. Then, finally, with regard to Pakistan, it has the longest border with Afghanistan. For more than 20 years, it has nearly 3 million Afghan refugees still in there. These people brought the gun culture to the Pakistani society. So, there is now a proxy battle between India and Pakistan. In Afghanistan, the Pakistanis are reporting and showing videos of Indian Air Force transport planes flying through Iranian airspace and bringing weapons to support their supporters in India. So, these so-called infiltrators from Pakistan… I don’t know who they are… whether they are Afghans from the refugee camp. In that case, they wouldn’t be mercenaries, they would be Afghans returning to fight whatever battles they want to fight in Afghanistan. Then you have the Chinese economic interest, you have the Russian interest that this Islamic fundamentalism of the Taliban doesn’t go into the Central Asian republics. I think this is also a problem for the current Pakistani government. That the Pakistani religious extremists will gain even more power in Pakistan than they have. And finally, Taliban is not a singular word. We should refer to them in the plural. It’s not the Taliban is or the Taliban has. It’s the plural of Talib. So, it’s the Taliban are. We don’t say the Americans is.

Erika Simpson  

Tariq, for me, I’ve written a lot of op eds on Afghanistan and have been against the involvement for the last 20 years. I think I was the only academic that was against it from the beginning. And I said foreign involvement in Afghanistan… foreigners will never know the Taliban. I’m not speaking in support of the Taliban at all. But I think intervention by America and the West was a mistake in the wake of 9/11. And on the topic of Taliban is … I believe my copy editors always write Taliban is. It’s not my fault.

Tariq Rauf  

The Taliban are the offshoot of the so-called Mujahideen. The religious fighters supported by the US and Pakistan to beat back the Soviets starting from 1980.  So, this element of a religious fight was brought in from the outsiders. And then the Mujahideen morphed into the Taliban and then an element of those morphed into Al Qaeda. And now another small element has morphed into ISIS, including the people who fled from Iraq and Syria as they were pursued. So this is a long tale and it’s not such a simple story. But I agree with you, Erika, it’s foreign intervention of people sitting in Washington and Brussels who have really very little understanding. They may have PhDs in whatever regional issues, but they have no understanding on the ground. And then I mean, look at the mess in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan – none of these interventions have succeeded anywhere. They’ve only made matters worse. And hundreds of thousands of innocent people have died. Nobody talks about them. We talk about the 2500 American casualties. I forget how many poor Canadians lost their lives and were injured. 

Erika Simpson  

Right.  158. 

Tariq Rauf  

Yeah, but what about the hundreds of thousands of Afghans who were killed in drone strikes? And of course, one shouldn’t forget that more Afghans were killed by the Taliban than the foreign forces. But it’s, you know, a huge mess in there.

Doug Saunders  

I’d like to hear from Erika about how you see how well this 20 years of foreign military operations has succeeded within the narrow area that it was legally and practically supposed to under the UN resolutions that authorized it and the NATO resolutions that authorized international support, which was not to get the Taliban out and it was not to democratize and stabilize Afghanistan. But it was to prevent a foreign militia and an Arab militia – at the time, Al Qaeda was the threat – from establishing itself there to the point that it was able to launch attacks on Western countries. And that was always the narrow definition of the International military operation in Afghanistan. It was the UN Security Council legal rationale for it. You mentioned that ISIS is established there. Has anything changed since the status quo pro ante in 2000?

Erika Simpson  

Well, Tariq’s point about Al Qaeda was kind of… I call it Frankenstein’s monster that came out of the Taliban. And so, you could argue that NATO is successful narrowly in defeating Al Qaeda, so that they weren’t able to establish an Islamic caliphate in the Middle East. So, we could say that NATO was successful narrowly and the US, but widely and Corey would agree with me… that in terms of peace building and building democratic institutions and bringing women in and education, the West was a resounding defeat. And keep in mind too, as Richard knows, all of Canada’s development money – instead of going to Africa and to development in Central America – went to Afghanistan. So, we’ve spent billions and billions of dollars of the world and what is the result? And so, it’s a failure, it’s a resounding failure.

Doug Saunders  

The one thing I kept hearing from military people in support of the results, even though measurably things had not worked out even a decade ago – and it was clear at the point when Canada withdrew – was that it had worked for women. That the rights of women had been secured. Participation of women in politics had improved. Forms of repression of civil life – mandatory purdah and head coverings and so on – at least in major urban areas had fallen apart. Corey, you’ve been watching that closer than anyone. Are things going to fall back to where they were in 1999 or 2000?

Corey Levine  

This is what Afghan women fear the most. But, to be clear, the media has done a good job in sort of highlighting: “Oh, women’s rights, women’s rights.” And the international community has said: “Oh, this is a red line. We’re not going to cross.” But their red lines have been very movable. They talk about it, but there’s no real commitment. But, you know, Afghanistan, despite being a very conservative, traditional, underdeveloped country, there has always been strong women advocates around. One of the women parliamentarians last night was pointing out that they had a female Minister of Health 40 years ago. The Taliban just imposed a very extreme theocratic version and interpretation of Islamic understanding of women’s rights. Needless to say, there were huge gains that were made in 20 years. Those gains haven’t, to a certain extent, really taken root in society. As Erika was pointing out, we have generally had a massive failure on the nation-state building project. And, yeah, I think we’re in very real fear of losing those particular gains. And as everybody else has acknowledged, the Taliban haven’t changed their stripes. I also think they have their frenemies. ISIS-K – the Islamic State in Khorasan – which is the Afghan version of ISIS. It’s hard to say [what is] the dynamic there and I’d be interested to hear what others think about it. On the one hand, I think there is some collaboration on the loose term. They’re engaging with each other. On the other hand, they’re fighting each other. But they are going to not outwardly have a say in what comes next if the Taliban get into government. The Taliban will be very conscious, though, of their interpretation. The Taliban call themselves an Islamic emirate, ISIS call themselves a caliphate. How those differences will play themselves out if/when Taliban get into government will have a huge impact on what happens with women. 

Metta Spencer  

As far as what is visible on the street, what is visible on the street? Do women wear burqas? Has there been a significant change in that kind of thing? If I walked down the street 25 years ago and today, would I see much difference?

Corey Levine  

If you walked down the street just shortly after the Taliban fell or in the intervening years: Yes. I mean, burqas were never compulsory until Taliban came into effect. It’s always been acceptable to wear a hijab. You know, there were the photos when the Soviets were in there of women in miniskirts and short sleeves. That was very sort of isolated in the in the urban centers. Even with my UN colleagues – Afghan UN colleagues – they don’t feel comfortable not wearing a headscarf in a UN compound at work, because it wouldn’t be acceptable amongst their male colleagues. Only a couple of them did not wear a headscarf at work. So, it just goes back to my point that the Taliban didn’t bring in anything in a way that wasn’t there. They just took an extreme version of that. But women will also tell you burqas are not our issue… I mean… 

Metta Spencer  

Really? It would be my issue. I wouldn’t want to wear those things.

Corey Levine  

Okay, having previously had to wear a burqa when I first went there when I traveled outside of Kabul. Yeah, it’s uncomfortable and not fun and hot and stifling. And you can’t see anything really. But they say: “Well, you know, covered up or not covered up, there’s endemic violence against women and girls.” Let’s talk about that. That doesn’t get addressed. There are so many other issues. Women only have – you know, it’s hard to know the real numbers – let’s say 20 to 25% literacy amongst women and girls.

Erika Simpson  

I thought it was higher, Corey, there’s a Canadian study – a government study – and they did a survey. It was something like 95% of Afghan women are illiterate. I was astounded. And then more than 50% have encountered sexual violence. More than 50%. And then child marriages are ubiquitous.

Corey Levine  

Yeah, absolutely. So well, you know, I’m being sort of generous in terms of the… but let’s say 75% illiteracy. 80% of women in girls have experienced some form of gender-based violence. Women have no access to economic resources. So, when you compare those issues to whether I have to wear a chador or not… in a way, it pales in comparison. And I don’t want to speak for Afghan women, but over the 20 years that I’ve been going there, this is pretty much the refrain that I hear.

Metta Spencer  

This is the saddest day. Everything I hear is extremely depressing. And I still have to say – and I know Tariq doesn’t want me to ask this question – but I want to know, what could have been done better? Was this inevitable? In a society like that do we just shrug our shoulders and say: There’s nothing we can do about it?” What should we have done, if anything?

Tariq Rauf  

Well, you know, with the Mujahideen, this was also funded by the Saudis. And with that came the Saudi version of Islam, which is a very restrictive and conservative version called Wahhabism. And the Saudis over the previous decades have funded madrasahs. [These are] religious schools all over the Muslim world, where they only teach children how to read the Quran and memorize it. They do not give them an education in science, social sciences, and so on. So you have many tens of thousands of young boys that have grown up in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Indonesia, Malaysia, through these madrasahs that are completely under the control of these extremist political religious parties in the name of Islam – wanting a caliphate or a global emirate, and so on. So, coming back to Afghanistan, as was mentioned, during the days of the Shah, I mean, when I was growing up, we used to go to Kabul as children for vacations. And women were part of society. Within the South Asian context, they were they were quite free. But with coming of the Soviets and with the foreign intervention of the Mujahideen, this crazy interpretation of Islam came in and it’s now also spread all over. I mean, for example, the hijab is portrayed to be an Islamic requirement. In fact, it is not. The hijab was actually originally worn by Jewish people in the Middle East region, then a version of it was picked up by Christianity when it came along, and then by Muslims when Muslims came around. But again, it’s been interpreted by these people, mainly men; and now it’s sort of interesting that in Canada and elsewhere young women are wearing it. I personally have no objection. A woman can wear whatever she wants, whenever she wants in whatever way she wants. My objection is to say that hijab is a requirement under Islam. It is not. So, there are sort of broader implications of this phenomenon beyond Afghanistan as well. But I think there is one positive sign in so many of the documentaries that I’ve seen. Even though the Taliban unfortunately may be closing schools and intimidating women, in many families now the men have begun to recognize the importance of educating the girls and women in their family. And they’ve set up informal sort of schools to operate under the radar of the Taliban where they can be given at least some basic education and the girls are very eager to get that education and even take the risk of walking through fields to get to such education. But all of this, likely we don’t know how this will survive if there’s a full Taliban takeover.

Metta Spencer  

Erika, you don’t have to put your hand up. Just butt in. 

Erika Simpson  

Oh, thank you. On Tariq’s very valuable point about what I call the ideology of global Salafism, there is a concept in international relations in the theory – the meta theory of social constructivism – which is called “three generations.” That thinking and ideology like that changes over three generations. So, we can be hopeful that 50 years from now, with the onset of the internet, with secret… with cell phones, which are being banned, and so on. That perhaps the fathers and the patriarchy that we’re seeing and I think it’s – when we’re getting at the roots of it – I think Tariq, it’s male patriarchy not so much global Salafism that’s at its root here. That the fundamental problem is of male tribal warfare thinking. And we need to have what some people call the culture of peace, to combat that, to fight that. And see the words I’m using: combat and fight. But it’s male patriarchy, that is embodied in global Salafism. Those tenets that are starting to appear around the world. So, we need to fight that. And you can only do that with people like Doug, the media, computers, the internet, and cell phones – and then we’ll win in three generations.

Doug Saunders  

I wonder given that as Tariq points out and as Erika notes, there’s a disjunction between the authoritarian politics of theocracy – which I think Erika is quite right – which tend to be a much more of a misogynist politics rather than a specifically religious politics and the lived experiences of women in those states. Tariq points out that regardless of what’s happening with the Taliban, the education rate of women has increased quite a bit, and maybe ratcheted back somewhat, but it is hard to reverse. And, of course, the outstanding example there is Iran, which has always, or at least since the 1980s, had the very highest rate of university education of women in the Middle East and one of the highest rates in the world. It’s far higher than the rate of women. And of course, if you’ve spent any time in Iran, you know it’s an almost matriarchal society on the streets. The intelligentsia and the creative class are women. People driving cars or women in Iran. But, there’s this disjunction between that and the theocratic government and their official controls. It always feels in Iran, like it’s a tension that can never hold for much longer, because society is so out of step with what the government claims society is. I think Erika is right that that’s because it’s a defensive gender-based posture rather than a strictly religious posture. Will that change? Would a higher rate of education of women cause change sooner in Iran and eventually in Afghanistan?

Corey Levine  

Your example, Doug, of Iran is really interesting. I spent a year working in Iraq several years ago and since the fall of Saddam… You know, under Saddam, Iraqi woman had the highest rates of education and university education and were amongst the most educated women in the Arab and Muslim world. And since the fall of the former regime that has been dialed back incredibly. Women are no longer as you know, getting the kinds of education and have access to the [various] kinds of education. They’re getting married much earlier. So, I guess I’m using Iraq as an example. You can have those rights for decades and decades, but obviously they are very easily eroded. So, I guess I tend to be a bit more pessimistic about how many of these kinds of gains that have been made will really remain.

Tariq Rauf  

A short comment about Iran: The last time I was there in Tehran, in the area where I was, roughly 50% of the people driving cars were women and a number of those cars just had women in them or a man was sitting next to the woman but the woman was driving.

Metta Spencer  

Okay, you know, I’m impressed by the fact that we have so many Afghan experts here. But I am also mindful that we have some people who are also quite knowledgeable about non-proliferation and the upcoming conference. So, I would be loathed to have us end this conversation without turning, at least briefly, to anticipating what’s going to happen. And Tariq, would you give us – if you don’t mind – your guess as to where we’re going with the NPT Review?

Tariq Rauf  

Okay, so NPT Review Conferences are held every 5 years. And the last one was supposed to be held in April-May of 2020 and it got postponed repeatedly because of the COVID pandemic. It was first proposed to be held in January of this year [2021]. But then conditions were not right in New York and then it got postponed to be held in August of this year [2021], that date too has fallen by the wayside. Then there were proposals to hold it in the beginning of January [2022], from the 4th of January; but that overlaps with the first meeting of State Parties of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which will be held in Vienna from the 12th to the 14th. So, the alternate dates that were proposed were from the 17th of January, but the Chinese have objected because it overlaps with their presidency of the Conference on Disarmament and also with the Chinese New Year. And also, it was pointed out that in order to not hold the session of the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, it requires a decision and that’s not likely to come. So, we are sort of stuck. A compromise proposal is to hold a shorter review conference in December this year (2021), starting from December 6th. But then a lot of the countries where people celebrate Christmas, they’re not too happy about it, because they don’t want to give up that Christmas, because in many Western countries have for the first time in two years the ability to spend Christmas with their families. My personal view is that we should postpone it to 2022. We have really no reason to hold an NPT Conference. I mean, it would have been good to have held it, but we don’t need to. Nothing needs to be decided. The Non-Proliferation Treaty will not fall away. We don’t have a Review Conference. Given the state of relations between the US and Russia and the US and China and the complete lack of progress on nuclear disarmament and nuclear modernization projects underway, a Review Conference now is not likely to yield any agreement on what’s to happen on nuclear disarmament. A lot of talk now is on bridge building between the weapon states and the non-weapon states and also on the relationship between the Ban Treaty supporters and its opponents. And so, everyone is now talking about nuclear risk reduction. So, the best measure of nuclear risk reduction is to have eventually no nuclear weapons. But who increased all the risks? It’s the nuclear weapon states. Through their modernization programs. Through their changes in doctrine of early use of nuclear weapons. The US now is thinking of using nuclear weapons to deter cyber-attacks under certain cases. Russians want to resort to nuclear weapons early if they feel they are losing a conventional war. We also have this issue of no first use. And here I think I’m going to antagonize many people on this panel. I personally don’t think no first use gets us anything. It just is another way of losing our efforts on promoting disarmament. And there are many agreements between Russia and the US from the height of the Cold War: Prevention of Dangerous Military Activities; the Incidents at Sea [Agreement]; nuclear risk reduction centers; and this current discussion and nuclear risk reduction has complete amnesia about this. So, if we were implementing those, we wouldn’t be having these incidents like in the Black Sea, where this British ship apparently challenged the waters that the Russians were defending. You have Russian bombers flying around the coast of North America. NATO bombers on the borders of Russia and basically raising the tensions. I also wanted to use this opportunity to show this book. This is by Ambassador Alexander Kmentt. It is called the “Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.” It’s a very detailed book, which provides the negotiating history of how the Nuclear Ban Treaty came about, through its various sort of episodes, like the nuclear ban treaty meetings in Mexico. 

Metta Spencer  

Who is the author? Please tell me. I’ve never heard of him. 

Tariq Rauf  

This is Ambassador Alexander Kmentt. He is one of the people responsible for the treaty. He’s part of the core group and part of the Austrian foreign ministry group that held the Vienna Conference with the Austrian pledge on Disarmament that got the support of 159 states. So, this is the inside story of the core group of states: Mexico, Brazil, Austria, New Zealand, and Ireland – whose diplomatic efforts led to the Ban Treaty. ICAN was very useful in promoting international support. But the work inside the UN system, on getting the resolutions to negotiate the treaty and then [actually] negotiating the treaty, etc. was done by states. So, this complements the excellent book by Ray Acheson, which describes the role of civil society. This describes the role of states and the so-called non-nuclear weapons states. 

Metta Spencer  

You said you don’t have much hope that the “no first use” or what may also be called “sole purpose” would do much of anything. Then what would you consider the next promising forward step? 

Tariq Rauf  

Well, I understand where no first use is coming from. But it’s basically saying: “My house is full of guns” and I’m telling my neighbor that I’m not going to shoot him or her. But, if I change my mind, I have all the resources to use them [nuclear weapons]. Sole purpose is more. It’s a little bit more useful because one can say nuclear weapons should only be used to respond to or deter a nuclear attack. But again, that’s a verbal promise. It is not subject to verification. So, the best way is to have a follow-on treaty to New Start, which fortunately the Russians and Americans extended. It’s valid until 2026 and gives us 5 years. And so now, the new talk is – and I hosted a webinar with Rose Gottemoeller, the US negotiator of New Start; and Alexey Arbatov – a senior Russian parliamentary delegate; and so on – the 2 sides are actually thinking about all nuclear weapons, regardless of range – medium range, short range, and weapons that can threaten national existence and so on. The stumbling block still is the Russians also want to talk about the anti-ballistic missile systems and the Americans don’t. But there might be a way of finessing that. There’s also this issue where the Americans want to bring in China and then the Russian say: “Well, in that case, we also want France and the UK at the table.” As you know, the UK said that it will not go down to below 200 warheads. They have established a ceiling of 250. This does not mean that they will build up to 250. But that leaves the possibility there. And they are building new ballistic missile submarines. The US also wants to build them. People don’t realize that all British submarine launched ballistic missiles are actually American ballistic missiles leased from the US. And the US cooperates with the British in designing the warhead for it because the warhead has to fit on the missiles. And the missiles have to fit in the British submarine. So here you have very close nuclear weapons cooperation between the UK and the United States. Canada, unfortunately, is still part of those countries that’s resisting the nuclear weapons ban treaty. NATO just reaffirmed it has a new concept where they repeated this whole thing as long as nuclear weapons exist; the NATO countries will have an appropriate mix and so on. The current Secretary General wanted to extend NATO’s remit all the way to China. President Macron sort of reined them in and said: “North Atlantic means North Atlantic.” I’d be happy to hear Erika’s views on some of these issues.

Metta Spencer  

Richard, you haven’t spoken yet. I wonder, does IPPNW have a position? Or is it more like a networking for people with very different positions? What would you say is the prevailing opinion within IPPNW about the next most promising advance toward disarmament? I know that IPPNW was very much a sponsor of the ICAN project.

 

Richard Denton  

Correct. Certainly, IPPNW strongly supports ICAN and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons and feels that is the way to go. I think I’m fairly simplistic. When at the NPT, it works by consensus, which means that someone has the veto and as a result nothing happens. The TPNW came about using the UN General Assembly voting system, which was sort of a two thirds majority. And but you had 122 countries out of 124 that agreed to it. So, to me that pretty much was consensus in terms of mutual understanding. What I also wonder though, is that do we need a third party or third forum? Because the nine nuclear countries said that they’re not attending the TPNW. We’ve got a few NATO countries and that they will attend as observers. You’ve got the Swedish proposals of 17 countries and they are proposing 22 or something different resolutions to move forward. But I’m just wondering – either Erika or Tariq – your thoughts on yet a third party? We in Rotary are trying to bring and get Rotary as another middle power to bring various groups together. With IPPNW, it’s all the health and World Health Organizations that are supporting ICAN and the TPNW. But I’m just wondering if we should have again another disarmament conference that would be on neutral ground to bring in the 9 nuclear countries. Now, I know Tariq has suggested that it begin with 5 or 7 and exclude Israel and North Korea. I’d appreciate your thoughts on that. 

Erika Simpson  

Tariq, I want to congratulate you on your survey there of all the issues that are reigning right now. I thought that was fantastic. I want to listen to that again. And so, Richard, your concept of a neutral disarmament conference somewhere, I want to connect to Afghanistan, because that was what we talked about a lot. And if you looked at how the decision was made to withdraw from Afghanistan, Donald Trump said he was going to withdraw and was opposed within by the Pentagon and so on. But the final decision that Trump made was criticized by the Germans and the Italians and they said fervently: “We can’t leave Afghanistan.” Then Joe Biden came in power. And on April the 10th, he said: “We’re withdrawing.” And right away the same day, NATO said they were pulling out. So, this, to me is a lesson of American hegemony that the United States dominates NATO. So long as NATO is dominated by the United States, we’re not going to get any changes. We’re not going to get any changes to NATO Strategic Concept, we’re not going to get any changes at the NPT. So, if I’m in civil society, and I want something effective, then I’m going to run for no first use because it’s understandable to Americans. No first use as opposed to sole use. And so, I can understand why PNND, civil society, and ICAN are all going for no first use. It’s something. It’s a low-lying fruit. We can grab it and maybe we can run with it. But until the United States decides that it wants to move toward disarmament, we’re not going to get anywhere. I’ve been to every NPT review Conference and seen how effective Tariq is there since 2000. And I think that until the United States decides that it’s going to take action, then Canada is going to be hypocritical on deterrence Canada’s can continue to vacillate and say we support NATO, the Strategic Concept, and deterrence. We’re not going to move anywhere until the United States changes. That’s why I want to move – if I could – to Washington, but I’m here in London, Ontario. Well right now, I’m in British Columbia, where my brother is running for the Green Party, so I’m helping him for a week in a good winnable riding. 

Metta Spencer  

I’d like to hear Tariq’s response to Richard’s question. Is it a good idea to have a new conference on neutral territory? 

Tariq Rauf  

Yeah, I think it’s a good idea, but the nuclear weapon states are not going to come. We already have the forum in Geneva – the Conference on Disarmament – where if they wanted to have discussions, they could have discussions. All of them are there, including North Korea. But they don’t want to discuss it there. The NPT, fortunately, is the only forum where five [of the] nuclear weapon states respond and explain their strategies. They do not do it in the General Assembly or in Geneva. It’s only in the NPT where they feel constrained. They are feeling threatened by the ban treaty, which is why their response is so strong. Because these days, you cannot stand up on TV or tweet that nuclear weapons are good and bring peace and security. The new generation that is coming up is watching British Columbia, California, and Australia burn. They see where the world is heading. And they see that billions of dollars or trillions are being spent on nuclear weapons. And here are these young people struggling with student debt, they don’t know what jobs they will be able to get. They can’t afford to buy their own houses and so on. So, their priorities are very different. And I think physicians and others, we need to target the younger people, because they are the ones who will affect change. They now have the numbers; they have the communications tools that are way smarter than at least I am with all kinds of things. WhatsApp has been superseded by other tools that I hear about. So, no first use was considered by Obama, but then he ran out of time and then Biden had made supporting statements when he was Vice President. But as President, I doubt very much he will have the space to agree to no first use. And this is one of the reasons why for the past two years, I’ve been pushing to move the NPT review conference out of New York to Vienna, because Washington is two hours away from New York. And in every review conference, when the going gets tough, we get a phalanx of American officials and they come and beat down progressive elements in the non-nuclear weapon states, including us in Canada when I used to be part of the Canadian delegation. And then we would get intimidated for a whole variety of reasons because we are very much vulnerable given our trade and so on. The pushback doesn’t come on the issue for issue. It comes in other areas.

Metta Spencer  

Okay, well, that’s a long discussion of all kinds of other possible actions. It didn’t really respond to Richard’s proposal, but maybe we should have a youth get together or something. I’m in favor of anything anybody proposes here. But time’s up. So, it’s been fun and interesting and important. And I’m very grateful to all of you for it. Say Goodbye. Thank you. 

[All panelists say Good Bye and Thank You.]

T248. Werbos, Computers, and God

T154. Ethnic Conflicts

T154. Ethnic Conflicts

 

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number: 154
Panelists: Paul Copeland, Martin Klein, Louis Kriesberg, and Doug Saunders
Host: Metta Spencer

Date Aired:  29 December 2020
Date Transcribed and Verified:  10 March 2021 (DM) / 28 May 2021 (AW)
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits: David Millar and Adam Wynne 

Martin Klein  

Well, what are you thinking about Canada?

Doug Saunders  

It’s a question that’s been on my mind. The sense I get from Canadian foreign policy,  from the foreign minister, and a lot of other places, is that they’re basically biding their time until the next US president comes into office, particularly around issues surrounding China, although, of course, also climate and things like that, which also involves China. And there’s a sense that Biden’s approach to China will be less unilateral and more of a mixture of engagement and confrontation than the purely confrontational approach of the Trump administration. But I think that the question in the air is: how do you do that? And I think Metta asked that earlier. How does a US president interact with China in a way that brings a consensus of democratic countries together around the question, avoids a second Cold War, but also wields some sticks along with the carrots to deal with the ethnic prosecutions and human rights abuses and crushing of democracy in Hong Kong?

Metta Spencer  

If, there were no human rights issues, either in Russia or China, I wouldn’t have any problem. I mean, the economic competition shouldn’t be problematic, and let them do what they please, in terms of, you know, building roads in Africa, or whatever they want to do, or, you know, a silk road across Asia. It’s the human rights thing. And I don’t have an answer to how you try to impose any kind of pressure on any country to really effectively change the human rights policy. The question of what to do about defending the Rohingya is exactly the same question is how you would take care of the Uighurs, you know, if China were not being so hard on the Uighurs and on Hong Kong,

Doug Saunders  

Are there approaches that countries like Canada and the United States should be taking, that they aren’t?

Louis Kriesberg  

I wonder if a strategy of more positive benefits from not imposing nasty human rights violation, if you’re just exhorting people to be nice and decent and we will hit you if you don’t be nice — may be counterproductive rather than winning over some idea that if you want to be progressive and have wellbeing for your people, you’re better off, allowing them to become cooperative helpmates in production. And it’s hard to coerce people to be nice. And there are mutual gains to be had. You waste energy. The Soviet Union by being so harsh on its own people, obviously was self-destructive. But I think partly, in some cases, maybe in China, they’re afraid that one thing can lead to another and they don’t want to go the way the Soviet Union went, which they, I think, think of as a bad example.

Paul Copeland  

The Canadian Friends of Burma started falling apart in 2013, when the first attacks on the Rohingya occurred in western Burma. And what I found was that most of the Burmese in the group had no sympathy whatsoever for the Rohingya. And it just blew the organization apart. So, I’ve been following the Rohingya stuff a lot. And I don’t see any movement at all from Aung San Suu Kyi or people in Burma towards any relaxation of anything. You know, they talk occasionally about repatriation, but I think it’s all a myth as far as the Burmese Government is concerned. 

Metta Spencer  

Paul, I mean, I am always I’m looking for, you know, prescriptions. And I don’t know. I mean, it seems to me it’s a good thing the Gambia took this thing to the World Court. But that’s gonna take several years. What good is that going to do? Even Lou might say, that’s not a good idea, because that’s of coercive, I don’t know. What more can one do? Tell them that they would benefit more if they’d be nice? I mean, I’m sorry, I’m really looking for answers. 

Doug Saunders  

If I understand what I’ve heard Paul, saying right before and others on this topic. The problem with what Lou’s suggesting is that the regime in Burma vis-a-vis the Rohingya and I think equally as much, the regime in China vis-a-vis the Uighurs, they think they are being nice. They think within their own internal logic, that they are providing security for maybe somebody who’s not that particular ethnic group. They think they are keeping back something that’s a threat to their country. And, I think, within the perspective of the elites and leadership in Burma, what they hear from their internal circles is constant affirmation of this. And there’s this problem that if you’re a foreign government, trying to put them on the right path, and so on, it’s very easy to “code” those foreign governments as being part of this invasion or part of this threat from outside. It’s not just Aung San Suu Kyi who has decided to launch a violent campaign of expulsion against the against the Rohingya… it’s a consensus within the ruling class and ethnic groups in Burma, if I understand correctly, Paul. How do you break through that?

Paul Copeland  

I don’t know. I mean, that’s my impression is that the Burmese, the Burmans, are supportive of the harsh dealing with the Rohingya,

Louis Kriesberg  

Ethnic conflicts are serious and they just seem to be persistent, without resolution — and the Rohingya is, in my little knowledge, I kind of put that in the same order. There’s a dominant ethnic group which wants to be in charge of everything. And then there’s ideologies that support the dreadful stuff that happens. 

Metta Spencer  

They’re all united about hating the Rohingya. That’s maybe the main thing they all agree on. And I don’t know to what extent these ethnic conflicts have been overcome. And the current government is —

Martin Klein  

Is anybody within Burma sympathetic to the Rohingya? I mean, clearly Aung San Suu Kyi has been forced [and is] involved in an uneasy alliance with the military. And she doesn’t, whatever she would do, it’s politic for her not to support the Rohingya. But how about these other ethnic minorities? Do they support each other? Do they, I assume they want a federal state? 

Doug Saunders  

We’ve seen a resurgence of sort of Buddhist chauvinist politics that some people would say is sort of a set of ideas that have spread all around the Buddhist-triangle countries of Burma, Sri Lanka, Thailand. And it does tend to view those ethnic minorities in those countries who are Muslim as being invaders, which is something you also see in China. The notion that the Uighurs are not just one of China’s many ethnic groups, but are somehow invaders who’ve arrived late on the scene. And you see that in India too, frankly, right? A lot of the Hindu politics is based on the idea that Urdu-speakers are invaders who came late to the game. And I think it’s a little bit like how Jews were viewed in early 20th century Europe as invaders, partly because people had witnessed a lot of refugees coming in from Ashkenazi populations driven out by pogroms, but mainly because it was an idea that once it caught hold, it was easy to say, even if it’s an ethnic or religious group that’s been there as long as anyone else. So I do wonder if this is a wider problem across countries that have Buddhist nationalist leadership.

Paul Copeland  

When I’ve been in Burma and also when I’ve been in Canada, I’ve been in contact and met with leaders of the Karen community, and leaders of the Kachin community. The Karin are on the Thai-Burma border and the Kachin are up on the northern border with China. And both of those groups are mainly Christian.

Martin Klein  

Does that mean they’re hostile to Islam?

Paul Copeland  

I don’t really know. It wasn’t an issue when I was meeting with them.

Doug Saunders  

And, Paul, do you feel that groups like the Karen get a more sympathetic treatment from the Burmese regime than the Rohingya do? Perhaps for religious reasons?

Paul Copeland  

I don’t know about religious reasons. There’s certainly been fighting with the Karen and the Burmese Government. It’s fairly mild right now. But I was in Manerplaw, which was the headquarters and met again with some of the leaders.

Metta Spencer  

Well, you know, they’ve got all these ceasefires, but what does that really amount to? Are these conflicts really over? And I don’t know whether all of them have even signed or reached a ceasefire agreement. But my impression is that most of the tribal or I don’t know what language I want to use for this, but ethnic conflicts other than the Rohingya have been sort of resolved, and the government would be functioning if it weren’t so screwed up about the Rohingya. Is that a fair way of looking at it?

Paul Copeland  

 No.

Metta Spencer  

No? Okay.

Paul Copeland  

Well, what they’ve been trying to negotiate in Burma is something called Panglong 2. Aung San when he first was in power negotiated Panglong 1, which contemplated the ethnic minorities staying in Burma for 10 years and then they could decide whether to get out. And they’ve been trying to negotiate Panglong 2, and I’ve been on — up until this month, actually, I was on the Board of the Associates to Develop Democratic Burma, led by a guy named Harn Yawngwhe. Aung San Suu Kyi has basically eliminated Harn Yawngwhe from participating and getting into Burma, although the organization is still working there. But it doesn’t seem to be getting very far on a Panglong 2 agreement. 

Metta Spencer  

And she’s excluding him because he’s basically a good guy?

Paul Copeland  

That would be my impression.

Louis Kriesberg  

After the horrors of World War Two, a lot of countries learned a lesson the hard way that such madness is self-destructive. And, I wonder if the vision of Europe, of an economic community really helped mitigate some of that for a while and in the longtime even. The immediate response in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania was the Russians who would become settled there couldn’t really be citizens, because they weren’t ethically Estonian, Latvian, [ and Lithuanian] — and the European Economic Community said; “No, no, no, you can’t do that. You shouldn’t do that. And you can’t do that.” And they did make sure that it was possible that, yeah, those Russians could be Lithuanian and citizenship could not be denied because they didn’t speak that language at home. But there have been that kind of attempts in larger settled areas. In a way, for example: for Spain, dealing with minorities was eased by being part of Europe, the whole idea of what your identity was got layered in European. It doesn’t end all troubles, but it is perhaps one path.

Martin Klein  

You know, in Eastern Europe, the issue goes back to the breakup of the Great Empires, both the Russian and Hapsburg Empires. In the 1920s, the question came up with both Jews and Gypsies. And I don’t know the detail. Some of you may know better than I, the the Hungarian/Romanian issue in Transylvania. But the question came up of nationality. In Africa, there have been lots of wars. In most countries, the fact is that you can’t open the Pandora’s box. You commit suicide. In fact, wars have been disastrous, no matter — except the Wars of Liberation and even those have had problems – but where you have a multi-ethnic community… I mean, I tend to feel that people are better off in a multi-ethnic community, but only if there are rules of the game where you accept other people’s religions; and the tragedy of Yugoslavia is that it was working well, and that most people, most Yugoslavs, supported it. And when it broke down, the appeals to ethnic nationalism produce horrible, horrible results that came out of nowhere.

Metta Spencer  

The current equivalent to the Yugoslavia situation — except it’s not a matter of breaking up a country but reviving conflicts between countries —is the thing that started with the Nagorno-Karabakh situation. I did an interview last week with Irakli Kakabadze in Georgia, who runs now a Gandhian kind of foundation. And I’ll be doing something with him tomorrow, that’ll be relevant to that too. But he scared the daylights out of me. He said that, as you know, the Russians are now back in control of Nagorno-Karabakh, or rather the territories around it, this sort of buffer zone. And they’ve got the deal with Turkey and Azerbaijan, and they’re trying to make a relationship with about four or five other countries in the region. And he says the Armenians are convinced that there’s going to be a renewal of genocide, that the Armenians are going to be killed and are being right now. There are human rights violations and atrocities going on. So, I’ve got to try to figure out who in Canada knows a darn thing about what’s going on in that region. I don’t know of any organizations or groups of expatriates, you know, ethnic groups working on it, but clearly the Armenian situation doesn’t look very bright now and we’re not hearing about it.

Martin Klein  

But the problem in the in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is really the great flaw of nationalism. That it is almost impossible to create national borders. And it’s almost impossible because people move across borders. People move in ethnic niches, people move. The Israelis are committed to it being a Jewish state. And the Estonians want Estonia to be an Estonian state. And that’s impossible because there are always minorities. 

Metta Spencer  

There are murders going on even now. Then, what you do, you know, you can’t just, you know, get in a pulpit and start inveighing against nationalism, you got to do something much more, you know, muscular.

Doug Saunders  

I think Russia’s role… I mean, Turkey’s being unambiguous — in backing these areas, which it doesn’t really need to do. There’s no economic interest in this. And the geostrategic interest is, is a little hard to sort out because you’re in danger of pissing off Iran and getting them into the game too, just to make a further mess of things. While the Russians have nominally supported the Armenians in this, because Russia has a big military base in Armenia, it’s traditionally sided with Armenia in these things. And it’s, until recently it kind of stayed out of this one. What you’re hearing, Metta, and what I’m hearing is that Russia is now doing things — but it’s a little unclear what it is doing. And yes, there have been atrocities in Nagorno-Karabakh and the impartial people have documented them. I don’t think it quite amounts to a second Armenian Genocide or something like that, but it’s enough to be very disturbing. It’s the sort of it’s the sort of targeting of civilians that, as you said, resembles the Yugoslav wars a bit. And it certainly sounds like the ceasefire isn’t much of a ceasefire,

Louis Kriesberg  

Is there any chance of recovery of Canadian leadership that it really had for a while? I know it does do work in international development and it has some good reputation for that.

Metta Spencer  

Lou, I think that Canadians, and I say this as an American who has spent more of my life now in Canada than I did in the US. So, I’m a Canadian and American, but more Canadian now. And I would say Canadians are among the most parochial people in the world. There is no sense of wanting to be to be the Empire in charge of things. There’s something like, we go as far as our borders and we don’t aspire to leadership in the world, even though we aspire to be “good citizens” in the world. You know, I’m trying to be provocative and I’m sure Doug is gonna swat me down.

Doug Saunders  

No, I’m actually going to agree with you to an extent. I think, when you listen to what other countries with conflict want to learn from Canada, it’s not so much the multiculturalism thing, it should be probably and successfully being a polyglot, pluralist country and all that stuff. But it’s how we manage Quebec nationalism. And the funniest example of that was a maybe a dozen years ago, maybe a little longer, I was in northern Sri Lanka, in the area controlled by the LTTE, by the Tamil Tigers, which they sort of turned into a pseudo-state a little like North Korea or something. And there were hardly any signs or anything. There were no businesses or anything. It was just a militarized area. We drove past a giant billboard with faces of various leaders on it and a whole lot of writing in Tamil that I didn’t understand, but one English phrase written in boldface, which was “asymmetrical federalism”, which is a phrase I had not thought anyone outside of Canada used. And I asked one of our translators, I said: “What’s that billboard about?” And he said: “Oh, it’s to celebrate, there was a peace mission that came in and was led by some guy named Bob Rae.” 

[all chuckling] 

Metta Spencer  

I love that. 

Martin Klein  

Canada does play a role, largely in part because we never had colonies, except internal colonies. And my wife attended one of the ILO’s annual sessions. She was part of the Canadian delegation and Canada played a role in negotiating an agreement which Canada was not likely to support. Because they negotiate these agreements. And if they bind the government in ways the government doesn’t like, the government may play a role in negotiating them, but then they’re dead letter. We’re one of those countries that that plays a role because we can talk to everybody.

Doug Saunders  

The role of Canada as a neutral arbiter has been historically useful. There are a number of people now who say that just doesn’t work anymore, that there’s no place for a neutral arbiter

Metta Spencer  

The whole issue of indigenous rights and, and the need to honour their heritage and so on. I don’t really want to use this word, but I… ssh… don’t tell anybody I said this, I think it’s a fad. I mean, it’s the kind of thing that suddenly became – over the last couple… two or three years – an very important element of Canadian discourse. It’s not that I’m opposed to it as an issue. I think it’s great that we think about it, but I can’t, I don’t really understand why it’s happening now, in particular. Now, rather than 10 years ago, or, you know, 50 years ago.

Martin Klein  

I think Trudeau opened Pandora’s box and it’s hard to retreat. He awakened desires in the Aboriginal community that he wasn’t ready to fulfill. And, so he’s ended up getting his fingers burned. But I think he’s pushed the issue in the center stage. And I think there’s an articulate native leadership, that’s not going to let him back down. The aborigines don’t have votes in Parliament, they’re only about 3% of the population. But they have issues on which they can mobilize sympathy.

Doug Saunders  

First Nations and Inuit populations are the fastest growing populations in Canada by quite a wide margin. And it’s being experienced. And they’re largely an urban population. And it’s being experienced, I think, by them as a return from the decimation. Decimation is the wrong word. What do you call when something’s cut to 1/10th its former size? That having happened to its population in Canada’s first century and a half, is now recovering. And so, I think you do have a new generation and sort of political awakening, that, I think some of the seeds were planted in the 1970s, when you had a first political awakening. And you also had the Canadian Supreme Court’s recognition that the treaties reached between Britain especially and also France and the tribes of Canada are part of the constitution. That they are constitutional documents of Canada and therefore implicitly there’s a shared sovereignty between the First Peoples of Canada and the descendants of the settlers. And I think that the constitutional implications of those decisions have yet to fully play out, and they’re combining with that demographic surge in an interesting way.

Metta Spencer  

Is there anything equivalent in other countries? I mean, I don’t see it in the US on the same scale. 

Doug Saunders  

New Zealand’s gone much further in incorporating the politics and culture and language of its Indigenous peoples into the very fabric of the country itself, including it’s flag. 

Louis Kriesberg  

At Syracuse University, every meeting is introduced by reminding people that we are on Haudenosaunee land.

Doug Saunders  

Even in the States, I didn’t know title acknowledgements had — 

Metta Spencer  

I did not know either.

Louis Kriesberg  

— and Biden has appointed as the Secretary of the Interior, for the first time, a Native Indigenous person.

Martin Klein  

I’m amazed that in the long period of American history, she’s the first Native person appointed to a federal Cabinet Office. 

Louis Kriesberg  

Yes.

Doug Saunders  

You know, I should say Canada’s hardly virtuous in this area, too. I think our first Indigenous cabinet ministers are pretty recent and of course native Canadians [First Nations people] didn’t even have the vote until, I think, 1960 or 1961.

T248. Werbos, Computers, and God

T173. How do People Become Torturers

T173. How do People Become Torturers

 

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number: WRS6
Panelists: Bill Skidmore
Host: Metta Spencer

Date Aired:   28 January 2021
Date Transcribed and Verified:  15 April 2021
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits: David Millar

Metta Spencer  

Okay, Hi, I’m Metta Spencer. And today we’re going to have I don’t think we can call this fun. I don’t know what to call it. It will be interesting though; I promise you that we’ve got to talk about torture. I’ve got a friend here, a new friend, who’s a professor just recently retired from Carleton University, who specializes in human rights studies, was in a program that quite often runs on human rights, and one of the human rights is (I suppose) not to be tortured. But he has… some expertise in that topic. The thing that immediately I wanted to know about was, how can you get people to do such a thing? So that’s one of the things I want to explore with him. This is William Skidmore. Hello, Professor Skidmore

Bill Skidmore  

Metta, you can call me Bill.

Metta Spencer  

All right. We’ll do that. So, hello. And let’s get right down to work. I asked you to to come and talk to us about torture, because this is not a topic that I have ever covered before. And yet, you know, everybody has to worry about the social psychology of… how do people become tortures

Bill Skidmore  

Become torturers… well, there’s not a single answer. It varies depending on the person, the circumstances or whatever. I think one can go back and say, Okay, what is torture, and there’s a torture… convention: severe pain or suffering of a physical or psychological nature. But part of what the torture convention also speaks about —

Metta Spencer  

excuse me, when we use the word Convention in this sense it means a treaty

Bill Skidmore  

… the International Convention on torture and cruel, inhuman, and degrading treatment or punishment… a UN treaty ratified by most states, many states, — 

Metta Spencer  

 when did that come into existence? By the way,

Bill Skidmore  

… I think the official ratification I think, was 1984. But there’s reference to torture in the United Nations Declaration of Human Rights and their International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and others. But it’s been long understood, since at least the Second World War, if not before, that torture is both immoral and illegal failing, and to engage in that… if I go back to this notion of the involvement of the state, and one can question if that definition is correct, but that’s the one that’s there — torture, in a sense, is a crime of obedience. Often people think that the people who torture… the soldiers, the police officers, are driven by a particular sadism, a personality that wants to cause suffering for other human beings. But in fact, that’s usually not the case. Or if it is, they need to constrain it, because they are the upfront perpetrators of harm, but they’re doing it on behalf of other authorities. So, they have to be constrained, prepared to act in the interest of the state, for instance, don’t kill the subject if the state doesn’t want them killed… You don’t want to just give vent to sadistic impulses. And so often it’s said — torturers are like us, ordinary people who… become that. Now, after being a torturer, especially for any length of time. I think one loses the moral sensibility that one normally has, which is not to inflict pain on other people. You know, most of us don’t, in our day, begin thinking, “Oh, how can I go and really hurt somebody in the deepest way.” And torture is perhaps the most profound way of causing suffering because — it’s a little more complex than this, but — unlike killing, you prolong the suffering. You maintain it, you gradually destroy the person’s sense of self. You make them into such a desperate person who will do anything to get out of the pain, who’s… normally a proud, self-confident person… perhaps begging, crying, you know, deprecating urinating on themselves, begging… feeling totally unable to control their circumstances? That is the pain that has caused so… I’m not really answering your question in this moment. Oh,

Metta Spencer  

You… really are and because that, you know, you’re giving a very full explanation of what that kind of experience is like. You —

Bill Skidmore  

… partly what draws me to teaching about political repression — and torture is part of that, it’s not the whole… — is the suffering, it causes unbelievable suffering… that doesn’t stop when the torture stops. It… remains with the person throughout their life, whether … physical consequences, muscular skeletal problems, headaches, insomnia, I have a friend… who was tortured — an engineer, can’t do math anymore… so cognitive harms, and then psychological harms of anxiety, of depression, of losing faith and trust. I mean, this is one of the greatest shames — in the same person, but I’ve heard others speak of this as well — in his case, he was blindfolded right into a certain office, he thought he’d be able to just explain things, he wasn’t that worried. And out of the blue… a horrible slap on his face. So, he lost. He said, my understanding of life changed at that moment and other torture survivors say that as well…  the first instance of the humiliation, of the pain, of the total control exercised over them — to imagine that another human being could be treating them like this. So, it has long-term effects like destroying trust, the inability to be close to others, even the inability to be close to one spouse or one’s children or… friends. So, it’s horrific what it does. But again, my interest in it wasn’t simply, this was part… Because I’ve met people through my work before academia, who had been tortured, and talked to them to some degree. And of course, I’ve read about it. But this incredible damage that is done and lasts the lifetime. But it’s done for a reason for a state reason, usually, a very… simplistic notion would be that it targets those who dare to challenge the power of the state, to stop political activity, to stop those who would challenge the state’s activities. And it’s not just in dictatorships, it’s in democracies as well. It’s as even the now-deceased Uruguayan writer Eduardo Galliano once said, I don’t remember the exact quote… the torture chambers: these are the consequences of inequalities of wealth of the powerful wanting to maintain their wealth, their status, their power, and this is what it comes down to. So much. How did you get into this? It probably started in my early 20s. When I moved to Ottawa, I’m from Saskatoon, and I had worked there in a crisis center. So, I was familiar with individual, personal life traumas, from people who would I meet through my work, suicidal-depressives, victims of spousal abuse, whatever, really horrific stuff, but then I got more involved around the political side. And part of that when I came to Ottawa, I did my Master’s in social work. And I met people who were from different countries, Central America, Chile… this was in the early late 70s, early 1980s. So, we have different waves of refugees coming to Canada, depending on the circumstances of that time. And some of them would talk about it. It’s rare and you don’t go and ask somebody, “Hey, were you tortured?” … in my own [life] I guess I was 30-31, I moved to Zambia in southern Africa, to work with the United Nations High Commission for Refugees. I’m not a legal person, so I wasn’t doing the protection elements of according refugee status, finding third countries such as Canada to immigrate to — I was on more the social service, small-business creation side of it, for people who would be remaining there. But through that work, of course, either people would tell me, or I would become familiar with certain cases of people who had come to the UN, who would describe their treatment, some of it quite horrific.

Metta Spencer  

They always bring it up, or do they avoid it? Mostly?

Bill Skidmore  

I don’t know… the lawyers if they ask right out, I have a feeling often they need to build the case. They probably do that. I wouldn’t…. People would confide in me. Tell me You know, it’s like, I guess comparison when you don’t ask somebody sexually-assaulted… you allow somebody [to talk] if they wish, and then you have to decide how … to deal with it. And… 1985 to 88. I was there. And it was also the time of the apartheid struggle in South Africa, in Namibia. And it impacted the what they call the frontline states, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Angola, Botswana. And so, I would meet members of the African National Congress. And sometimes they would tell me something about this, or at meetings, people would talk. So, it was just gradually I became more aware of the depth of, of the violence used to suppress people, and the long-term impacts. And even at the time, I wouldn’t necessarily understand it… well, it’s over time… I often think of this one guy who used to irritate me and ANC members. And the reason he irritated me, it was only this one thing, every hour on the hour, he stopped all conversation, if you’re at a party or with a group talking, and put the news on. He was obsessed at knowing… what was happening at home… any news. And so, there was such an attentive… I don’t know if he was ever tortured. But he was in exile. He obviously had had to flee his country. He had been subjected all sorts of harms… At that time, I didn’t realize that that was one of his coping techniques. I learned that more later, the more I studied the research on torture. So that’s the long answer to how I why I came to do what I do. As a teacher I wanted to… talk about human rights violations, let’s say even economic and social and cultural rights violations. Okay, what role has force, intimidation, coercion, and the infliction of deep pain [play]? …in maintaining social and political and BDS — don’t challenge the system…

Metta Spencer  

I’ve heard people say that it is counterproductive. That, you know, they were talking a few years ago about waterboarding the in the US, which is torture of, I guess, absolutely.

Bill Skidmore  

torture. Absolutely.

Metta Spencer  

And, and there was a debate, I guess as to whether or not you were actually going to get the truth out of people with that. Now, how often is torture used as a means of extracting information from people who might be otherwise, you know, in on a secret that they don’t want to share, political… conspiracy or something?

Bill Skidmore  

Well, they commonly seek information. The question becomes how, how genuine that information is, if people tell you, it under extreme duress… we will say whatever, to save ourselves from the pain. Sometimes people try to commit suicide while they’re in prison and being tortured, because it’s so, so horrific — so to gather information, to punish. It’s a way of saying, if you dare speak out, you will suffer the most incredible pains. It’s to create collaborators, those who will, in order to end the pain — and then you create a large society of collaborators. Its… primary role is to deter challenging authority, it’s to deter political activity.

Metta Spencer  

But that’s a big category… These are two different things. Getting collaborators is one thing, punishing people and making an example of them… a warning. And then getting extracting information from those would seem to be all three. And maybe there are other types of or motivations for it. But they’re… all a matter of trying to get conformity with the government.

Bill Skidmore  

So that’s the overarching… to change how a person thinks politically… get them to betray their cause, and actually identify not just doing it so the pain stops, but that they then fully identify with the cause of their own [repressors].

Metta Spencer  

That happens much?

Bill Skidmore  

I don’t know how much that happens. I can’t give you stats and even if you look at different research… and going back to your first question, how do you get other people to do this. There’s a lot of difference of understanding based on research of what are the factors that lead people to actually —

Metta Spencer  

remember during the Patty Hearst case, there was a story about the Stockholm Syndrome, that she… moved over to becoming one of the kidnapper group. She joined the group, the Symbionese Liberation Army. And but I don’t think she was ever tortured. I think that she, this was a case in which she, her psychological strength was just not strong enough as she joined the cause. That, you know, but it the idea that you would torture somebody and actually get them to, to want to be part of your outfit. Oh, that’s hard. But,

Bill Skidmore  

but if you look at, again, the causes are bringing people to torture, there’s many different [ones], this is what I would start with. But I think response to your question that one way of making people torture, is in a systematic way for a state government. After you’ve selected those who will do it, they become part of a professional… unit that’s set to do it — usually, to varying degrees, they themselves are degraded or humiliated, even tortured. And so, the notion is, you would think they would then never want to do that to anybody, but often they, they actually identify so much, ultimately with those who are abusing them. Because they’re so dependent on them, amongst other reasons. So… learned helplessness. They, they become extremely loyal to them. They… have been brutalized, themselves, initially hating… the treatment of themselves, but then the identify with those who did it to them and then become part of the group who does it to others and… I don’t want to compare the two exactly, but even initiation rituals for fraternities —

Metta Spencer  

You know, yeah, I mean, I’ve never understood that. But yes, they certainly do go along with it, don’t they? That’s part hazing. Yeah,

Bill Skidmore  

… You degrade the person, you make them feel lesser, you destroy their own identity, their selves, their sense of self confidence of their own beliefs, you break them down, and you build them up again. I mean, military training does that to some degree, and it can be done more severely. But this is what you’re doing. You’re destroying that person’s capacity for agency, to act on their own moral beliefs, and brutalizing them, and then they join, and are so connected to the authority that did it. And that’s the most important thing because you want torturers who will obey orders. You don’t want freelancers; you don’t want those who will do something that will harm what you’re trying to do. They have to be completely obedient to those who control them without question.

Metta Spencer  

I was waiting to bring that up. Because even before we met today, I was thinking about Dave Grossman’s work, you know, Dave Grossman, is a lieutenant colonel or something retired from the US Army, where he was, I don’t know what his own role is, but he certainly was a military instructor. And what he argues, and he’s got really good evidence that people inherently will avoid killing, and that in previous wars, most of the people who were supposed to be shooting to each at each other, would often deliberately miss even though it would expose them to harm because the other… could shoot them back. But… they didn’t want to kill so they would shoot over their head or in the ground or someplace. And, you know, they’ve done things like collect spent bullets after a battle and compared to how many people actually got hit. And, of course, it’s a fraction of the number of people who could have been hit if they were trying to shoot straight. So, he says that people inherently will avoid… inflicting pain or killing another person, but the army then has to overcome that. So, they’ve done some very creative things they’ve developed, you know, like video game trainings, and they’ve done various things to make people shoot at targets that look human first, and they work their way up to overcome this resistance. And recent wars, he says have shown… that they’re much more successful nowadays, in getting recruiting any ordinary young man, I guess a woman to… do this, and, and overcoming their reluctance might even start with having them kill a chicken, you know, I’ve never killed a chicken, although I’ve watched my mother do it. And, you know, you start with doing something that you would sort of be repelled by doing, and then work your way up to horrible thing. So, I suppose that becoming a torture would be like the last stage in this learning process, educational process, or…redefining of the personality?

Bill Skidmore  

Well, you do, of course… basic thesis was, the further away you are from your victim, the easier it is to inflict harm on them. So, if you’re launching a missile or your bomber, at 40,000 feet, it’s easier to press the button than if you have to do it up close. And then torture, of course, is even a step closer, because you’re not killing. Normally, that can be at the end. But you’re actually as I said earlier, keeping them alive, in such a degraded state. And in, essentially what you said about the chicken… when I got in my early 20s, I lived in India, and I worked with a guy who had been in, in the Indian military, and he told me that they would practice bayoneting on dogs… as an example of how to do it. And then there’s various rituals that people are put through…  like even being given the blood of animals to drink as a ritual, because who would be inclined. So, these are unifying rituals as well… these are your comrades, you’ve done this. So, but there are these antecedent conditions, besides the training in all the notion of — you create the sense, often of certain persons in a society — being either inferior or a danger, and often both. So… the famous example of what the Nazis did to Jews and Roma and others. Before the Nazis came along, these groups of people were already devalued, already seen as a threat, already seen as harming the society. So, it could be you look down on people because of their ethnicity, their religion, but it could also be their political views. So, they pose a threat. And so, you develop this in-group/out-group, they are the threat, we are saving the country from them. You… become part of a… professional network within the military, of one’s country who does this, and you see what you’re doing as an important job for the state. And you view your comrades… as doing an important job doing it capably, and you look down upon those who you torture. And the more you torture them, the more you look down upon them, because of course, they’re looking, you know, horrible state, it’s like… we often will pass poor people or people begging for money and look down on them even without wanting to… or they’re ragged and dirty. And, and we… have this just-world thinking that, well, I’m fine. Why are they — you know, it’s their fault. So, we even look at the tortured person, it’s their fault. They’re in this predicament because it’s a just world. One wants to believe that. That’s how we, if we are doing well, we’d like to say… because the world will reward people who work hard and have whatever characteristics we think matter. So, we see people being tortured or otherwise they, they deserve that they’ve done something wrong, they’re a threat and look at them… what a pathetic piece of garbage sitting in front of me. Even the one who has done the degrading of them themselves. They still look down on — So interesting. Now, you’ve we’ve got to the point of talking about the after-effects, you’ve begun by saying that they’re broken permanently. Is everybody broken permanently? Or do you know of cases of people who somehow have overcome the trauma in a way that they do not have nightmares or whatever other horrible, lasting effects? Well, yes, I mean, I’ve known people who have impressed me so much by what they’ve had to deal with, let’s say it’s a permanent state, you’ll always remember, it will always affect you in some way. People grapple with a greater degree — depending on their circumstances, the support they get, just their basic life circumstances. Some people think — some therapists think… you have to work through — others would say no… imagine somebody who’s been tortured, arrives in Canada as a refugee, they have a family, you have to learn English or French, they have to find housing, they have to try and find a job. They have to recreate a whole life. So often, the traumas they experienced, whether through torture or other traumas of fear of being persecuted, or just the traumas of going in [unclear audio], often those have to be pushed aside, in order to just deal with the practicalities of daily life and also find meaning in them, especially if one of them… has others who depend on him. Now, some people might think, well, but maybe 20 years down the road, when life is… more stable, maybe it will come back to affect them. So, there’s… varying theories of whether you actually indeed have to work through. There are different understandings, depending where people come from of what causes this thing. How do you… go to a therapist? That’s not a common notion in many cultures? Do you even talk about it to anybody, especially imagining certain tortures, like sexual torture — which is we even know here with rape survivors? … many feel so ashamed, and torture survivors feel the same. They didn’t do any wrong, but they are made to feel something is deficient in them. And then you add in on top of other non- sexual tortures, the sexual tortures? It can complicate that. I think that so I’m not sure what the answer is, you know, because I’ve known people who have so impressed me… how they’ve, I can describe it as — a generous spirit of caring for others, of maintaining their political goals and organizing. On the other hand, I want to be careful about turning them into heroes, because that can put some pressure on them that they don’t always feel they can live up to.

Metta Spencer  

You find anybody who can actually make of empathizing with and understanding or feeling? Well, I don’t like the word forgiveness in this context, but trying to understand the mentality of the torturer? I’ve heard of people who 20 years later they run into their torturer in a social situation, you know, and their stories about what happens in their encounter. I guess it varies a lot. But are there people who can feel any common humanity between themselves either from the from the park, part of the torture toward the victim or vice versa?

Bill Skidmore  

Well, some torturers… somehow acknowledge what they’ve done and confess to it. Recognize just how much they dehumanized, are examples of, maybe the torture actually knew the person they were a family friend or something. So, there they can. It’s harder to dehumanize the victim when you also know them in another way. I wrote up cases of people who were in a good point… I have known people here, for instance, on a busy downtown Ottawa Street, they didn’t tell me directly, a third person who’s from the same country, because they’ve never talked to me about their torture. But I’ve heard about it, it was horrific, from this third person, and they said they run into their torturer on a busy downtown street in Ottawa, has somehow gotten to become a Canadian citizen — and it’s shocking, and it’s frightening. And it’s terrifying. And it reminds you of the degradation. I have read of people who have tried to forgive, who would have said if there’s different attitudes, some religious attitudes, I once had a student in class and he said in his faith, we do forgive and I said, “Well, is that just, you know, a rationalization like a psychological way of dealing with the pain?” He said, No, “We actually truly believe that.” He was a very authentic guy so I can see it. I’ve seen people try to do that. I’ve seen others who for instance say, my… treating them well, was my best revenge.

Metta Spencer  

Well, revenge yes, but I have a dear friend with whom I have an ongoing debate, let’s call it that. But she is a spiritual person, Christian who believes that the most important thing in life is to be able to forgive everybody all the time, unconditionally, no matter what they’ve done. And I think, no, at some level, you do that if you think the other person was not, was in a position where they either didn’t know… better. Like she talks about Christ on the cross talking to the about, you know, forgive them because they know not what they do. Well, I think the reason, he says, because they know not what they do is that the only circumstance under which you could forgive somebody, either there, they really didn’t know better, or you know, they’re too young or too mentally incompetent or something like that. So, you can forgive them for being unable to understand. Or in a situation of duress, you might say, you can forgive them, because the circumstances were such that they, they had no effective choice. So, there are conditions under which you can forgive. But I think if you for the most part, the real responsibility we have is to, to require that others apologize and feel remorse before forgiving them. I mean, it’s a duty not to forgive, until we’ve seen in the other person, a real repentance and remorse.

Bill Skidmore  

No, I don’t think there can be genuine reconciliation without acknowledgement of responsibility, and awareness of the harm that was done. And then if one determines it’s a genuine remorse, because sometimes people express remorse to get out of hot water. It’s not necessarily if —

Metta Spencer  

it’s fake, but you I would think one would need to really sense of the other person really was hurting. For about having done it.

Bill Skidmore  

Yeah. And maybe even over a period of time to see how genuine it is. It’s not just plays ==

Metta Spencer  

I am, by the way early, I was reading, watching a video of a woman who was a specialist in early Christianity, and it’s called Patristics… this is a branch of theology, I guess, where they look at the early church. And apparently, the early church fathers also required repentance before forgiveness. They did not go around telling you forgive everybody, no matter what. That to me. That’s, that’s kind of an important point. to note.

Bill Skidmore  

Maybe there’s a continuum in some ways, like there’s people who are psychotic and do horrible things. I’m willing, obviously, to say that they didn’t know what they were doing. But that’s not the norm. And… there are different levels, even the, for instance, the frontline torturer, who maybe says, if I don’t torture, I will be tortured, I will be killed. You know, they’re in tough circumstances. And yet, one would say, well, you shouldn’t do it anyway. You’re doing to somebody that they would do to you. But then they can say, Well, yeah, well, if you don’t torture, we won’t torture you, we will torture your children. You know, there’s so many ways to coerce people and put them in these most horrific dilemmas, who I often feel rage or anger… the officials, or those who give the orders of those on whose behalf they’re actually giving an example. I remember George W Bush … the second. And there was something came up about, maybe it was the Iraq war. I know it was Iraq, war, Guantanamo, or whatever. I don’t remember the context. But he said, I sleep fine at night. And I thought, Oh, yeah, I guess you do. What about the people, the soldiers that either are living in fear of their own lives, or after they’ve done horrible things, to other human beings, they have to live with that reality for their entire life where you don’t have to, because you just gave the orders and your hands are clean. They’re… the folks that I just have the greatest derision for, because they may let others do it on their behalf and carry that burden.

Metta Spencer  

Well, you could say that for every war maker, you know, everybody, every General, … everybody who even pays taxes that they know is going to… support military… complicity with warfare is so much a part of everyday life, that it’s a gradient scale, I’m sorry to say, you know, it’s real. I mean, it’s not many people devote their entire existence to opposing being involved with a system that does harm to other people.

Bill Skidmore  

Well, we often expect that that should be what the citizens of an enemy state do. For instance, we talk about the “good German”, referring to the Germans during the Nazi era who pretended not to know, or if they did know they didn’t do anything and I think well, they lived under a totalitarian state where for them to resist carried… severe consequences. I’m not justifying what they did. But even those in some resistant, there was a German resistance. It was huge, I think like the French or Polish resistance other countries, but the… at least there’s an element of fear. It’s fascinating to me when persons who really don’t have a whole lot of fear, still remain bystanders. They still accept the state, doing horrible wrongs or whatever they are. Even in now, we live in a time where the information is so accessible to us, we can find good studies on different issues, academic journalistic, whatever, there’s still some people prefer to remain just uninvolved.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah, but I mean, look, this is a, you know, we’re really talking about more than just torture. Now. We’re talking about all kinds of political decision-making about…  what’s right and what’s wrong. I mean, the Republicans in the US right today are not going to vote for the conviction of, of Trump, for the impeachment, because there’s political gain to be had from a being. Okay, you know, that, and then they try to find an argument. I mean, now, we’re into the quicksand, you know, are we talking about more morality more, much more generally, then, then the question of torture, I want to go back to an earlier assumption that, or assertion you made that, that it’s always about trying to get the state to get people to conform to and obey the state. Because, you know, there’s other kinds of authority. And if you think about the Milgram experiment, where it wasn’t the state, but it was, it was a guy with a lab coat, who looks authoritative. So, you say This is Professor so… of the Psych department, and he’s a leading authority on this or that, and if he tells you to do something, of course, you will do it, because you want to be a cooperative, good citizen. So, this isn’t political, but it is certainly obedience. On the other hand, there’s even more than that there’s not authority, but wanting to be approved of by one’s peers. So become being party… to a particular group, can lead a person to, to make judgment errors, or to hide the truth about their even their perception. I mean, think of the Solomon Asch studies back, you know, 50-60 years ago, when Solomon Asch would get six or eight people in a row, and they were all stooges, and then the sixth, the seventh person, or so would be the real subject. So, he would draw two lines, and he’d say, which is longer this one or this one? And all six of them would give the wrong answer. And then when you get to the final one, the final person who’s the real person will also give the wrong answer. Because they, they, anybody could see how long this line is. But in order to not be considered deviant, they go along with this ridiculous thing. Well, so much of human interaction is a reflection of that kind of conformity was desired to be approved off. And it’s not political. It’s, it’s more like, I just want to be regarded as a good person. Right? Normally,

Bill Skidmore  

I remember those. I was in one of those experiments, where you, yes, in when I was doing my undergraduate degree, and I actually said what I thought not, I didn’t go along with the others. But I know I’ve seen it in other cases, too, for instance, working in organizations, and you’re in a meeting and somebody is going on and on about something you don’t understand that is confusing, but you don’t say anything because you think you’re the only one. And then after the meeting has started talking to people, you realize nobody understood it either. But we don’t want to appear, we don’t want to appear foolish. There is an interesting thing. I mean, with Milgram, and in some dispute, whether his thesis and it’s been tested in various with various variables, but basically obeying an authority and as you said, the lab coat. You know, Milgram himself was at Yale, so that carries prestige, etc. But it was been replicated all over. You’re obeying an authority to a point that you would do great harm. That’s the other thing. It wasn’t just a minor thing.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah. They thought the other person had been, they could hear them screaming in the other room, and they thought they maybe even killed the person

Bill Skidmore  

Yeah, because it would show on the meter, they’ve read the, you know, danger all that. Some, no, who walk out. Again, these antecedent conditions, you know, indoctrination in a society, of belief of in groups or groups, the threats, they also look at those who perhaps, have either been had more of an authoritarian upbringing or for whatever reason, tend to have a greater belief in authority or willingness to obey, rather than to challenge authority. And I know I used to have a button, a friend gave me and I think I wrote on it, he said, challenge authority, at least question. But there’s, whether it’s here, whether it’s a belief in authority, because authority will make the world work, right. For instance, one of the strongest reasons, job, people justify either what they do, or accepting like in the case of William Calley… in Vietnam with the My Lai Massacre, I think the strongest reason given for those who thought he shouldn’t have been punished is he was obeying orders. He was — and that loyalty to your superior in the military, or whatever authority was a higher value than not harming others. So, a lot of people carry that as a belief. And I even recall a case year ago, not that many years ago with some people who left the US military after the Iraq invasion and sought refuge in Canada, exile in Canada, and a lawyer for the federal government, when they these folks were claiming… we’re being forced to commit war crimes. And a lawyer for the Canadian government who was denying them their claim of refugee status here, said, you’re a low-level soldier, you don’t have to make those decisions. Therefore, there’s no reason to give you status where this was a moral [issue]. These were moral beings still, who did not want to create harm, honestly, I joined the military thinking I was going to be defending my country, saving us. And here I am now killing Iraqi civilians.

Metta Spencer  

I’m not surprised that the person in authority would go along with that argument. I mean, wouldn’t it historically have been considered a reasonable defense of that? You could, you could say I… was ordered to do it. And… that would be good enough, I think, and maybe until maybe the war crimes tribunals after World War Two, this really was discussed, and it was established that it’s not a defense. But you know, it’s sure is a pervasive assumption. And even today, I think there are all kinds of people would assume that it is not only true, but it’s a good, good argument. That’s all you have to say is, I was ordered.

Bill Skidmore  

Yeah, I think since the Second World War with the Geneva conventions of 1949. And, … there are additional protocols and …  quite universal, you are not to obey an illegal order. Before that… even different armies have their own codes of conduct. So, someone sometimes says No, you shouldn’t obey an illegal order. An unlawful order, rather, is probably the terminology. And others would say you have to do it. But again, then there’s the reality when you’re in the heat of battle, and you’re ordered to do it. And if you don’t do it, it could be done to you, or you will be abandoned by your comrades. You’re left with a sudden, difficult circumstance plus, you’ve also in the heat of battle, developed hatred for the enemy. You’ve seen what they’ve… killed your colleagues, your friends in uniform, and it gets very jumbled up… psychologically at the moment… there again… the soldiers were trained to degrade the enemy, it made it easier for them to say I have to be these orders because look at who we’re dealing with here is beasts. Hmm. 

Metta Spencer  

Well, I think your course is something — sounds like everybody in the world should be exposed to a lecture… covering the things that we’ve been discussing.

Bill Skidmore  

I created courses that I thought were important and most of mine focused on political violence within human rights, that was my own strongest interest. I think it matters for many reasons that we understand. Even that societies ultimately operate through coercion… some coercion is legitimate… in order to force the person to attend their trial in court, or who’s accused of a crime, whatever…  I do think we need to understand the violence that underlies a lot of what we just see as economic issues. Some students have had that own experience in their own lives, or family members tortured, perhaps even them. I did have a student who also was a guest speaker, he had been tortured badly and severely, but he wanted to talk about it, you don’t ever I’ve never just asked somebody to do it, it was more it came to my attention that they would speak or they came to speak about a more general situation, and then talked about their torture as well. But I, of course, like I said, at the outset, very careful about their own state of mind. And yes, I tell the students, this is very hard stuff, you are going to be upset. And I will have, you know, I talked about that, how to deal with what you what you encounter some of it, you may not be able to sit through — I had a student once, and I won’t give any details about them. But they come from an area we call a war zone, an area of conflict, intense conflict. They couldn’t bear the sight of blood… but they could bear the sight of skulls… I once showed a video on Rwanda. And there’s a famous scene from a church where all these skulls were piled up and the students that — I can handle that, but what I can’t, in their own personal lives, not in a political context, but in personal… abuse, sexual assault, whatever, they would be sensitive to that. So, I try to work around it. But I think, mostly, I think what I heard from people was they were glad to be informed. They obviously I had no idea about this kind of stuff… And they also — …in the student evaluations, the number one best thing I got it every year, because I’d have a lot of guest speakers, and they really appreciated hearing their story. And I asked my guest speaker said, don’t try and be academic, I do the, you know, the academic side, tell the stories. And in the stories are profound. I feel emotional. And I can remember, students feeling very emotional, but they didn’t want to not know they did. And there are victims, and they are also survivors. They are people, the people you see here have been acting and still speaking out about what was done to them and others were evil, but I was also trying to be understanding if you can’t listen to this, leave, or I would warn in the film, if something coming up, I’ll tell you close your eyes, you know, you want to be sensitive and know they all have their own different backgrounds to

Metta Spencer  

thank you so much for this. This is really very, very meaningful. We get a lot of people watching it because I think everybody needs to go through a little of this. It just as you said it, we all need to know.

Bill Skidmore  

Thank you for inviting me. I enjoy talking to you.

Metta Spencer  

I’ll probably get back to you and talk about other aspects of human rights, because you’re always there. Thank you. Glad to do that. a terrific.

Bill Skidmore  

Bye.

T159. A World of Migrants

T159. A World of Migrants

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number: 159
Panelists: Subha Xavier 
Host: Metta Spencer

Date aired: 11 January 2021
Date Transcribed: 11 April 2021
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits: David Millar

Metta Spencer  

Hi, I’m Metta Spencer, today we have a conversation coming up about migration. And as you probably are aware, immigration is one of the big hot button issues of the day, not only in the US, although certainly especially in the US. And migration worldwide is seeming to be one of the issues that have provoked a lot of votes. Those folks who are, I guess we can call them, right-wing populist movements around the world. And so, we have to think, very broadly, about what the… transfer of population from one region of the world to another is going to mean to us in the future and what it already is meaning, in terms of the politics of different countries. And this today, I’m going to have a conversation with I have to say, a, a woman I’ve known since she was about eight years old? A very dear friend… Subha Xavier is in Atlanta. And hi… how are you dear?

Subha Xavier  

I am well, thank you. 

Metta Spencer  

— Excellent, because I’m so thrilled at what you have accomplished, you and your friends in Atlanta, have recently accomplished by going out and going door to door and in inducing voters to… you found people whose ballots had been invalidated, and took it to them and said, straighten this, clean this up so you can vote. So, you won. Yeah,

Subha Xavier  

We did. It was really exciting. And they call it securing ballots, which I think I love that word because we’re in the middle of a global pandemic. And at some point, it said on social media that I was happy to be part of any type of cure in this current climate. Um, so yeah, we were knocking on doors and helping people correct, secure their ballots. And it made a difference. In the end —

Metta Spencer  

Did, you got…two senators, who are Democrats who are going to the new Congress, and … I went to bed at something like 12.30, or 1 o’clock, feeling fairly happy about the result of that. And then I didn’t watch the news again, for almost 24 hours, or at least a number of hours. And in the meantime, what had happened was this insurrection in the Capitol? So, it’s almost as if this extremely important piece of news about what had been accomplished in Atlanta got sidelined by the more photogenic activities that were going on at the Capitol Building. Yeah.

Subha Xavier  

It’s a good way to put it sort of photogenic. What is photogenic these days? You know, what do we like to see? And what attracts our attention and our news cycle?

Metta Spencer  

It’s not just today, it’s always been blood and gut… if it bleeds, it leads. But it is important, I in no way want to dismiss the extreme importance of this insurrection. But what you did is also really commendable. You folks,

Subha Xavier  

I think it’s important to make the connection between the two, I do think that many people on both sides knew Georgia was going blue, all the signs were pointing towards it. The numbers were pointing towards it, the Poles were pointing towards it, everyone on the ground knew we had enough registered Democratic voters to win this election. And this went off. And I cannot underestimate and we cannot underestimate the importance of that news. And the impact of that news on the people who decided that interaction was the way to go. Because I think what we saw was people terrified of the change that is coming and wanting to hold on to a status quo that you and I both know, cannot last, just cannot last. And so, you know, I think Georgia was a key component in the motivations of these people. I —

Metta Spencer  

— Some of the, you know, pundits that I was watching said, Well, this is a wonderful fluke, but Georgia is still a red state and hasn’t changed. Now. I don’t know what that means. Except that they obviously don’t mean don’t believe that in the future we’ll necessarily predict further moves towards it. 

Subha Xavier  

Honestly, I think they’re wrong. I think Georgia in its population and its demographics has changed drastically, drastically in the last 10 years. And I think largely, that’s because of black voters coming out to vote and feeling for the first time that they are not disenfranchised, that they can make a difference. But most importantly, I think it’s —

Metta Spencer  

Quit touching something that bangs on your mic. Oh, I don’t know what whether you’re, I don’t know what you’re doing that sound anyway.

Subha Xavier  

…But I do think… there are huge immigrant populations that have moved to the Atlanta area and the surrounding areas. And let’s face it, that the election was won because of the Atlanta counties and the counties surrounding us. It was not won in those other counties all around this, I mean, Atlanta is hugely populated, and we made the difference, and that population is not going anywhere. So, at best, I would say it’s a purple state. But I am actually confident because of the effort of people like Stacey Abrams, and Tamieka Atkins and others who’ve been… grassroots, just working nonstop for the last 10 years. I think they have actually changed the state. Wow, blue, I really do believe we’re more blue than purple. But you know, for the pundits’ sake, I will say okay, maybe we’re purple then. But we’re certainly no longer red. I think they got that wrong.

Metta Spencer  

Okay, well, okay. And another factor has to do with, you’ve already pointed to the rural/urban differential, I’ve been looking at, I was looking at exit polls and these huge gap between rural and urban, in preference for Biden or the person whose name will not be uttered. Good.

Subha Xavier  

Okay, I think that’s very true. You know, when we were securing ballots and volunteering, they were constantly asking us if we would drive out to other further away counties, to do this kind of work to try to make sure that those ballots counted. So, we think that’s really important, too, because, yes, the urban population of Georgia is perhaps more inclined to vote red and has always been inclined to vote Republican, but they’re always and continue to be Democrats in the rural populations as well. And if we were asked to be volunteers there, it’s because they’re there, and they’re feeling heavily disenfranchised. And I was, I was just over New Year’s Eve, I was actually in Hancock County, which going there, as I looked around, I was convinced it must be a very white county. And yet I found out it was most majority black. So, you have these rural counties that are also very African-American, and where people maybe just didn’t vote, or didn’t feel like their vote counted, or are intimidated when they go to the polling stations. And it was on the national news, you know, suddenly because Georgia was on CNN, we got that on the national news. And… we saw, in fact, that a place like Hancock County, completely rural, beautiful, but completely rural and very kind of disengaged, you would think, from federal and state politics is not, and that there are in fact, all these Democratic voters waiting to vote and waiting to be enabled to vote. And I think that was one of the big changes we saw.

Metta Spencer  

And I know you said I believe that the votes that had been thrown out as not eligible somehow, and I’d be interested in knowing more about what, what disqualified a particular ballot, but that they sent, they were disproportionately black votes. ballots. Okay. So, so you were pursuing black voters, mostly right. And —

Subha Xavier  

In the vast majority, yeah… the experience was very gratifying. But it was also very sad, you know, many of the voters that whose ballots we secured were elderly people who were sick, and who, perhaps whose signature, maybe because their hands were shaking their signature on the ballot… didn’t match with their original signature when they registered to vote, who knows how many years ago, decades ago, perhaps some of them the saddest ones were people who’d gone blind since they’d registered to vote. And they’d had to have somebody help them with their signature. Now, what they didn’t know is that they could have had somebody sign in their place. But these things are not necessarily very legible on a ballot. You don’t… know, you may have to do your research to know, so… you don’t do that, you are blind and… somebody tells you here’s the line, sign on this line. You don’t sign properly. You don’t sign in the exact match for the way you signed before, and the ballot was invalidated. So yeah, the vast majority were black… of ballots that I secured, were also black women. There were also a lot of young people, like 18-year-olds, of every ethnic background, who were just neglectful with the way they did their ballot, and who just kind of threw it in there. And who we had to go help, because their signature wasn’t matching, or they had not, you know… coloured in the circle properly. So it was kind of the two extremes. But yes, I think the vast majority of voters who needed their ballots secured, or at least in my experience, of course anecdotal, were black. And I will also say that when they saw me at the door, versus my husband at the door, who is white-skinned, and when they saw me, they would open the door, but whenever we would go together… they wouldn’t open the door. So, we figured out that he needed to stay in the car, and I needed to go to the door, and I would sometimes see one of my kids, and they would, you know, open the door that would vary. So again, that also shows you something about… fear and trust, in the sense that… these are voters that have been disenfranchised their entire lives, and they don’t know who to believe anymore. And the fact that we had leaders on the ground… whose goal only goal was to bring them back in was just inspiring. And …like you said … before, I think this needs to be part of that new cycle. And it’s not sufficiently in, the new cycle – that we need to be talking about this. And I do think these kinds of things scare white supremacist voters more than anything else, when we empower the very people who they believe have sort of taken away their power, their so-called power – right there. Imagined, imagined power really,

Metta Spencer  

Would you have run into hostility from say, neighbours who didn’t like what you were doing?

Subha Xavier  

Absolutely, absolutely. I mean, I’m very careful. I live kind of in suburban Georgia and in Atlanta, and I’m very careful. I mean, I didn’t I didn’t leave my house for five days after the election. Not even to walk my dog. I just I didn’t feel safe. I didn’t feel after Biden’s election… didn’t feel safe. Because of the way people look at me, you know, and the way I get kind of stared down and there’s

Metta Spencer  

Isn’t, you say brown skin? What is it that or is it that they saw you with a… Biden sign or something and they… realizes what you were doing and didn’t like it?

Subha Xavier  

Well, we have we have Biden and Warnock and all those signs in our yard… more importantly, we have Kamala Harris signs in our yard. We have. So yes. I mean, I think it’s all of that. I think, yes, we have these we had huge securing when you secure ballots, you have all this paperwork that is very clearly Democrat. So yeah, I mean, I was I was very careful. I was, I’m just aware, I do get stares, I get racist slurs, you know, at least regularly, I would say, you know, I mean, it’s, I think we live in a time and a state that is more openly racist. And when people who are racist, are kind of given permission.

Metta Spencer  

 Right. Right.

Subha Xavier  

I mean, this is why I think he whom we shall not name is profoundly responsible because he has really emboldened people to do and see things that ordinarily they never would – there’s a part of me that thinks, well, I would rather them out themselves than not. Because in some ways when they ask themselves, it’s not only I who see it, but others see it around me as well. And that’s important, right? There’s so much racism that is kind of hidden behind closed doors that we see, for example, in the academy all the time… the ways in which racism is something we… experience, and yet we don’t show it, we don’t speak it out loud. So there is to me, a part of the way in which this particular administration has emboldened people to speak their… prejudice out loud. Part of me has been relieved by that because at least it’s for all… ears to hear and all eyes to see. and not only targeted this very pointed, careful way at people like me, or who look like me… I am an optimist, you know, I really am… an optimist means that I see all this as leading to some greater good…, I sort of think that even this kind of insurrection is… I like the fact that we all got to see it. Because otherwise, it’s often people like me who see it. but here it was the whole world — We all got to — glance on it for I don’t know how long it went on, because I didn’t watch it. But the others they watched it. And I think it’s great that they watched it. You know, I think that is exactly what you need. Watch it, and realize that this is what goes on in this country every single day.

Metta Spencer  

… I don’t know whether say it’s a blessing to me, but… I never see it. You know, I would never. And when, you know, I think your mother said that. Yes, she encounters it. And I was startled. You know, that was a number of years ago. Yeah, racism here in Toronto. But what happens? You know, I don’t see it. And I’m always astonished when it occurs. Yeah. And by the way, you said you take… one of your two children to the door of a black family, and they’ll let you in.

Subha Xavier  

I take both of them. I take both of them. Yes.

Metta Spencer  

But if they were blonde, would it make any difference?

Subha Xavier  

That’s a good point. I mean, I think children are less intimidating, no matter what. So I think that there’s something you know, when you see a woman with a child, you don’t think that they’re here to somehow intimidate you, right?

Metta Spencer  

These families that you’re going to the door, you they don’t see you as black, your Sri Lankan. They must know that you’re not black, but what do they think of you? Does it but you say it helps that you?

Subha Xavier  

I think it does, because I single-handedly secured more ballots than most of the volunteers. I mean, and it just happened that way. I did. It wasn’t planned.

Metta Spencer  

You’re a forceful personality.

Subha Xavier  

Yes. But at the same time, I think I’m… a less intimidating presence at a door. And I don’t blame them for it. Because if I was alone at home, and somebody knocked on the door, you know, in suburban Georgia, I mean, I’d think twice before opening the door… So, I do think that that has something to do with it … I don’t know if necessarily, they know what my ethnic identity is, per se. But I think seeing a small brown woman at your door is just, quite frankly, less irritating. Okay. And it tells you a little more about the sort of racial climate in the state than anything else.

Metta Spencer  

Okay, let’s talk more generally about that because part of the explanation you’ve already given is that lots of migrants are coming into Georgia. And I understand that there’s a significant change… in the demographics of the whole state, to really make a difference. So, who are these migrants? Where are they coming from? And what do they have in common? Or are they similar enough to even say they have anything in common politically? What can we say about the migrants around your part of the world? Maybe not. I know, you also lived in Miami, before you moved to Atlanta, I should have introduced you properly, by saying that you teach French and Francophone studies and migrant studies at Emory University in Atlanta, which is an excellent university and populated by excellent professors such as yourself, and I’m very proud of you. Oh, so… what’s different about Miami and Atlanta as you move from one to the other?

Subha Xavier  

Yeah… what we are witnessing in this country is the growing political presence of immigrant populations. And I think that’s really important to frame that way. That immigrant population, you know, this is a country of immigrants. You hear that being said all the time, and Canada is a country of immigrants as well, you know, most countries in the West are today, more and more and increasingly countries of immigrants, so they have always been there. But now slowly, they are becoming a political presence, a presence and that by that, I mean, their vote is swaying the way large groups of people are voting. And I do think that in Atlanta, what’s really unique to the Atlanta region is that it is a majority largely black African American, Atlanta region, and then all these suburban or rural areas… other cities that are less black overall… Even though like I said, I think that that demographic too… has to be revisited. And then you have… the major urban areas… immigrants who have been pouring in for the last, you know, easily 30 years in significant numbers. So, yes, they’ve been here all along. But in significant numbers, I would say that maybe in the last 30 to 40 years, that has changed dramatically. So there, I think, from everywhere, but what we have in Atlanta, we have a significant growing Hispanic population, not at all comparable to what we had in Miami, but a growing Hispanic population from various parts of Latin America. Significantly, I would say that I have noticed in my work with migrants in the city, that we have a growing population of Puerto Ricans, that we have a growing population of Mexicans, that we have a growing population of Venezuelans, we have Salvadorans… Brazilian…  as well, Indians have often been attracted again, or something,

Metta Spencer  

something’s bumping the mic.

Subha Xavier  

Oh, the microphone. I’m sorry. It shouldn’t hurt.

Metta Spencer  

Okay, I don’t know what’s happening. So anyway, I can edit it out.

Subha Xavier  

… there’s a huge Indian population here has always been one. And then there’s a significant African population here that’s growing. That that I’ve been working with, through my work at Emory as well, from Sudan, from Rwanda, from the Congo. And then there’s the Asian population and a great big population of Vietnamese, Koreans, there’s a whole area that’s very close to where we live called Buford highway, it’s… known as the immigrant part of Atlanta. And it’s known for its incredible cuisine, you know, and you have every possible restaurant and supermarket, and you can get any Asian food possible… but they’re also very Latin, it’s also very Hispanic and Latinx. And that too, is a positive, these are populations that have been very important and growing in the Atlanta area. So, I think it’s incredible, and that you have this diversity of population, what they have in common… is that they’re relative newcomers, that they have all of the issues that immigrants face from one generation to the other, this dramatic difference in the way they are integrated into life, from one generation to the other. I’m… obviously one of those cases in point. You know, my work talks a lot about how they are caught between… resistance and exploitation, they’re both exploited for their labor, for what they can bring, their cuisine… all the wonderful ethnic things that they bring in, they enrich our lives — then they’re exploited at the same time, because they’re treated with prejudice. And so they’re always kind of resisting, and at the same time looking to integrate, and in some ways, they’re accused of selling out, because… some of them integrate so much. And they they’re accused of betrayal, because they leave behind cultural… language… cultural practices, sometimes… religion, and these things are often deemed unforgiveable. You know, this is what the literature… I’m a professor of literature, and that’s what this is, what the art — 

Metta Spencer  

introduce you that way too. I didn’t say… Your research has to do with the literary production of people into Francophone countries. Yes. from elsewhere, from non- Francophone countries. All of them are migrants, and you’re dealing with migrant literature. In fact, I think the title of your book had some refers to the word migrant,

Subha Xavier  

Migrant texts, making and marketing a global French literature. And so yeah, it’s really about how this literature this and their cultural production gives us real insight into the ways in which they inhabit the spaces and all the spaces right the political spaces, but also the cultural spaces and the economic spaces. And I think what they have in common is the way in which they’re constantly negotiating different cultures, different language. different expectations and different politics. I mean, they listened to what you had Maria Puerto Rivera, on your show, you know, and I enjoyed it, because it did that it that’s exactly what she’s talking about the kind of negotiating politics between Trump and Guido and just kind of what, where we, where they land is interesting, because she actually said, they kind of turn into pretzels of sword. And I thought, what a wonderful image because I truly think that’s what it’s like to be a migrant, you know, you’re, you’re kind of pressing your body around, to try to, you know, meet all these different expectations and all these different standards that are held up to you. And invariably, you’re going to fail to meet somebody standard and somebody’s expectation, right. That’s what they share in common.

Metta Spencer  

But what you also have taught in Paris, your university sends you as kind of a mother in long with some students to spend a year or two and in Paris, and you were there recently, and I believe that then you have a really good opportunity to compare what migration is like for the people landing in Paris, the situation of people landing in Atlanta or Miami? Is, is there a difference in the way? France treats migrants? They’ve certainly had some disturbing riots and just, you know, events, protest movements of, I guess, mostly North African immigrants to France, in in the past years. I’m not sure that I’ve heard of any in the last two or three years. But at any rate is there anything you can say about how, how different countries process immigrants? And whether there’s a whether it makes any difference in their experience?

Subha Xavier  

Yeah, I mean, I, in many ways, no two countries seem to handle immigrants like, but I do think there’s always a populist, extreme right-wing version of immigration that many of these countries share, as we know, England, the US, Canada to some extent, and certainly France and Germany. I mean, we they all have a there’s always a rightwing extremist narrative of belonging and nationhood that always needs the migrants — you know, this is something I write about — in that nationalism and migrant populations go together. Right when… migrant populations increase, nationalism increases. And I think what’s important to note is that the story that each tells goes alongside with it, so the migrants’ story, and the story of immigration goes alongside with the… national… story. And the nation story is one that has to make sense of the migrants, they have to either dissolve them into themselves, or they have to posit that as the enemy. And as you see today… that is often how it works. So… that framework… if I can call it a narrative framework, is true… across the board, in terms of that extreme… nationalist narrative, … but the migrant, the immigrant is always part of that narrative. And I think that’s telling, … because it tells you that immigrants are sort of the unresolvable problem… to the nation state as we have —

Metta Spencer  

You know… your simple equation is an obvious one, but I’ve never actually put it that – simply where you have… immigration, you have nationalism… I hadn’t thought about it. Is that always true? 

Subha Xavier  

In all the cases I’ve studied, it’s been true. I mean, it’s just… a numbers game like … nationalist rhetoric increases. Even in Quebec, it was true, because I studied Quebec as well. And even in Quebec, it was true, because the 70s was this key moment in Quebec nationalism, and the 70s is when the immigration immigrant population just went like this… they were next to nonexistent till that time, they were very small, and suddenly they became a presence. And again, when you have this presence, that you can’t quite dissolve.

Metta Spencer  

You’re making me unhappy because… if you say that generally holds up… the future is not too bright, we’ll close with global warming, we’re going to have a whole lot more migration with multiple times as much migration as we have now. I mean, the whole country of Bangladesh is going to have to evacuate… And these small… islands in the Pacific and so on are going to be inundated. And God knows where else, I think Lower Manhattan is going to have to evacuated.

Subha Xavier  

Florida is going to be non-existent.

Metta Spencer  

All of these, these populations are going to be on the move, big time. And I hadn’t thought about that. There’s sort of like an equation that you calculate — how much nationalism you’re going to have… this is very un-pleasant. I hope you’re wrong. But maybe you, maybe it holds up? I don’t know, I never thought about it quite that quite that way.

Subha Xavier  

As I do… that is my prediction. I will stand by it. I really do think and you know, whether or not we are comforted or discomforted by that reality, I think we need to be aware of that reality. I think we need to, and we need to respond to that reality. I think in places like the US what’s fascinating is to look at Georgia as a really good example of … what that means politically, because what you have is, if you have more and more migrants in a place like Georgia, well, they’re going to vote differently. And they’re going to be a different kind of political entity. And that also, to me, brings with it some hope. I’m not saying that immigrants don’t contribute to nationalist thinking, because they do. And we’ve witnessed it… we know that immigrants did vote for Trump. I think that’s an important thing to say. I think we know that immigrants do vote with the right wing. Well, there’s — 

Metta Spencer  

— Another thing though, that motion is somewhat different. Your equation has to be is sort of modified in that… I’ve talked to Doug Saunders about this, because he writes about migration. And he, if I’m not misquoting him, I think he really would say that, where the opposition to migrants is located is not where the migrants are. In other words, where they actually settle the people around them become – Okay, you know – they handle it pretty well. It’s some people some distance away… localities where there are no migrants that display the greatest amount of bigotry. So… maybe as more migrants come, They have a better chance of winning the narrative… as a better prospect is – would you want to say that or not? 

Subha Xavier  

Well, I think I unfortunately… I was trying to say, I don’t think it’s that simple. Because some of them are, if I can use the word almost co-opted into the other narrative, right. In other words, and let’s not forget that. I think that’s important, because we don’t all invest in a great majority, for example, the US immigrants tend to vote Democrat, great majority. But let’s not forget those who don’t — there’s been a lot of writing about that recently. You know, when I’m writing about that, as well, right now, it’s just I think it’s important to note that there’s some percentage of them who do not vote.

Metta Spencer  

Maria was pointing… to the Venezuelans.

Subha Xavier  

Exactly,

Metta Spencer  

Exactly those people they supported Trump 

Subha Xavier  

Absolutely 

Metta Spencer  

Doesn’t make really much sense, because they’re, they’re, you know,

Subha Xavier  

I appreciated that she problematizes that because I think we need to do more of that kind of work. We need to show how, ultimately – it’s so contradictory, and it’s really not rational. And I don’t think there’s anything about nationalism that is rational, let’s face it, it is kind of this gut reaction, in this way of voting. I think I told you earlier, that, you know, the first Trump signs that came out in my neighborhood, were from the Korean family… and that was a very disturbing thing for me and my children. I mean, my kids were just trying to understand that, they were trying to process…  “Ma… these are not the people you said vote for Trump. How can this be?” you know, and then we’ve had to process it as a family. These are our neighbors. And what does it mean to be the first to bring out the signs? That’s also really key. I think they’re saying… is where we stand. … you may see a Korean-American coming out of… my door, but this is who we are. Not — I think it’s really important and that… population is not going to go away and the… Republicans if they’re smart, will actually capitalize on those populations…. we know our Cuban… Venezuelan, there’s a certain percentage of right wing voters among all the immigrant groups. And I think they are important. And we need to understand that as long as that tendency is there among immigrant populations, the narrative will never be one narrative, right? There will be many different stories that are being told. And I’m interested in stories, as you know, because I write about stories. So I’m interested in their story as well. And this is why I’ve been doing some work on this right now. And I’m interested in the story that they tell of themselves, because they have to make it somehow make sense.

Metta Spencer  

Are you doing it systematically, you know, trying to compare migrants that tilt left to migrants right? Or are you What? Well, I,

Subha Xavier  

As you know, I’m not a sociologist, and I have sociologist friends who are doing that work. So I’m drawing on their work… they’re doing the data analysis, I’m doing the kind of literary analysis of stories and texts. And the texts to me are really very interesting, because I like to read between the lines of text and see… what is the story you’re telling? What is the story you cannot tell, or you refuse to tell? And the story you refuse to tell is just as interesting as the story you tell. So, the story you tell might be that look at me, I’m Korean American, I’ve come here, I’ve done well look at my beautiful house, look at all the houses that I rent to other people, look at my business, look at my small business, and so on so forth. But in the putting up of the sign…you also saying… I’ve gotten this certain status, and the status allows me to vote in my interests. And my interests are my taxes. And I do not want to pay these taxes. And my interest is… private schools, because that’s where my children go, they go to the best Atlanta private schools… You’re saying, I’ve gotten to a point where I don’t have to worry about other people, I get to just worry about myself. That I think is a message. That’s how I interpret the message.

Metta Spencer  

You are you actually have the makings of a very fine politician, very dynamic. I don’t know whether you have aspirations along those lines. But I kind of would like to,

Subha Xavier  

Who knows, you know, but I think one thing I’ve really thought a lot about in Georgia is that, you know, the way this administration — but even before this administration, sadly, this was going on under Obama as well — has treated immigrants and illegal immigrants has been, the most horrific and the most inhuman. possible, and the fact that immigrant populations are not up in arms… protesting what this treatment — to me is also one of the most disturbing things about migrant life that I have encountered.

Metta Spencer  

Wait a minute, now you’re saying that this was going on? And it wasn’t just under… but it was under Obama, too? Yes.

Subha Xavier  

Yes. Because, you know, Obama was known among immigrant populations as deporter-in-chief.

Metta Spencer  

Right? Yeah,

Subha Xavier  

He was. He was deporting he was imprisoning the number of detainees, basically detained in inhuman conditions, far too many people… within a prison. You know… denied all access to their loved ones, denied access to proper meals… it’s a system that is corrupt. And we there’s not one person we can blame. But what I’m saying is that immigrants have not been treated very well, especially in Georgia, because we are actually home to some of the largest prisons of immigrant detainees. And the fact that… you have these immigrants who are doing so well and who are prospering and at the same time… are so removed… at least mentally, are able to say, “That’s not me… that’s not my problem.” …  you can say this is a human problem, and all humans should be worried about it. But the fact that you can be an immigrant and no longer feel any kind of identification with someone else, who has come under dire conditions, no matter the reason, under difficult conditions, and is now being treated, inhumanly, in inhuman ways that you can just kind of let them sit there.

Metta Spencer  

Well, that’s really disturbing. That’s doesn’t bode well for your prospects under… Biden’s administration if… Obama wasn’t all that great, then is there any reason to think Biden is going to be different? Or I don’t know whether you want to pin it on them personally Biden the man and Obama the man, or just the people around them? Is there any reason to expect that because of the big anti-immigrant action under the Trump presidency, that there will be a reaction that will be much more favorable to immigrants now, or, or?

Subha Xavier  

I like I said, I want to be the optimist. And I want to be hopeful. And I think we are so starved for hope at this point, after the last administration that I have to think it can only be better… Am I… confident that Biden and his administration will bring kind of huge systemic… change, which is the kind of change we need? I’m not so sure. At the local level, I am a big fan of Stacey Abrams. I’m really hoping she will be governor in 2022… I put more faith in her and… the American system is such that really… at the state level is where so much is done and can be done. And certainly, in terms of our prisons in Georgia, I would think that somebody like Stacey Abrams, would attend to the human- rights crisis we’re in in ways that I’m not sure Biden — I’m sensitive to Obama’s, the ways in which he was blocked, you know, right, left and center every time you try to make any kind of change. And I think I’m sure Biden will be too, even with our recent Georgia victories, I you know, everything will be a challenge for him. Any sweeping change will be I think, blocked by,

Metta Spencer  

You know? Yeah. Well, let’s hope that this scandal over the last few days will change the dynamics in a significant way, too, because I think the Republicans are fragmenting you know, we’re gonna hear all jumping ship right now. Yeah, enough to make a difference. How many of them, what fraction? I think it’ll be very interesting. I think over the next few days, we’ll have a pretty good idea of how many people are going to go down with the ship. If it goes down? Yeah, okay. Look, I this is a, I should move on, I’ve got a, we both have a full day ahead of us. We’ll see how… delightful… to talk to you,

Subha Xavier  

Thank you feel free to talk to… and I’m very grateful to… you were one of the people who welcomed my family as immigrants and as refugees. And I know, you’ve done this for lots of people, and we are just one among so many you’ve helped. But that, you know, I was thinking to myself before today, before meeting you today that I think you were my first real Canadian white adult, who I knew. And I think that’s huge. When you think about childhood and the kind of impact people make on you and you’re, how they shape who you are, and they shape your dreams, and they shape your ambitions. And, and I… think of myself like… I became an academic and really, there are no academics in my family. But Metta as an academic… I mean, maybe you were my inspiration. I never really thought about it that way. But it occurred to me today.

Metta Spencer  

Well, I really would love to take credit for you. Good. I’ll claim all the credit. That’s It’s wonderful. And I’m just really happy for you and for your family. Thanks. Okay. Bye.

T163. Russian Military in the Arctic

T163. Russian Military in the Arctic

 

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number: 163
Panelists: Ernie Regehr
Host: Metta Spencer

Date aired: 18 January 2021
Date Transcribed: February 2021
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits: Diana Hdalevich

Metta Spencer 

Hi, I’m Metta Spencer. Now, have you been paying enough attention to the Arctic? Most of us haven’t. And this is time for us to pay some attention to the Arctic. So today we’re going to do that we’re going to listen to Ernie Regehr. I’m going to have a conversation with Ernie Regehr, who does know a thing or two about the Arctic. He is the former or was the founder, co-founder of Project Ploughshares, which is a very wonderful organization that studies peace research in Canada. And he’s a senior fellow at the Simons Foundation. And he knows a thing or two about the Arctic and I think we should pay some attention. So good morning, Ernie.

Ernie Regehr  

Good morning to you.

Metta Spencer 

Yeah, okay. I think you have recently published an article in a book about, is it about Russia in the Arctic? Or what’s your – I have to admit, I haven’t read it yet.

Ernie Regehr 

It’s about the Russian military presence in the Arctic. And so, it tries to be descriptive about that presence, which is a growing presence. And then also some of the strategic implications of that. Of that, that presence. So that’s where we are the – as you know, there’s, in some circles, there’s quite a lot of growing concern about American or Russian militarization of the Arctic. But it’s subject to varieties of interpretations. There is a kind of consensus about where it’s going, I can talk a bit about that.

Metta Spencer 

Everybody knows that it’s – they’re building it up, right?

Ernie Regehr 

Yeah.

Metta Spencer 

You know, I, I somehow give them more rights, than maybe other people would, since they have people there., you know? I mean, they have big cities in the Arctic, and we have just little bitty clusters of people compared to them. And somehow that, to my mind, it makes it more… I don’t know, is that reasonable or not?

Ernie Regehr 

It’s very reasonable. I mean, it’s by far the largest Arctic state, it has, by far the longest frontier in the Arctic. So, part of the – part of the point of its military buildup, which is by the way, is a string of – there are two kinds of military buildup one is the conventional and then the other is the nuclear and the nuclear has always been there through the Cold War on the Kola Peninsula, and it remains a prominent presence and it’s part of Arctic nuclear modernization similar to that, but the Americans and the Chinese are doing. So that’s one part of it. The other part of it is just that string of conventional military facilities that go all the way from the Pacific to the Kola Peninsula,

Metta Spencer 

Okay, now I knew that they have nuclear submarines up at in the Kola Peninsula that’s around Murmansk, right?

Ernie Regehr 

That’s right. Yeah, Murmansk is on the Kola Peninsula,

Metta Spencer 

And they have a fleet of nuclear submarines and things there. Now, but you’re – what you’ve alluded to it sounds like it’s more than marine facilities, but maybe nuclear weapons – are there nuclear weapons there or not?

Ernie Regehr 

Well, the North – it’s the maritime nuclear leg of the Triad that’s based there. So, there’s a nuclear base on the Kola Peninsula, a wide number of nuclear bases on the Kola Peninsula, and then also there are nuclear submarines on the Pacific in the Kamchatka Peninsula, but the Kola, the Kola one is – there’s a major base that houses all of the long range submarines with long – with intercontinental ballistic missiles, SSBNs in other words are based in – on the Kola Peninsula, there are seven, seven of those submarines there. And one is of the newest variety. And the others are an older Delta four version of SSBN but they’re on the Kola Peninsula, and they patrol in the Barents Sea area primarily, but there are also and then there are nuclear weapons storage facilities in that area, as well as attack submarines and air bases as well,

Metta Spencer 

what now? Do they ever get out and go into the Arctic Ocean? Or do they- Do they go into the Atlantic? And do they patrol the rest of the world? Do they slip around looking for things?

Ernie Regehr 

Well, I think that the – we can come back to the conventional because it’s an important thing to talk about. So, let’s not lose sight of that. But on the – on this, this nuclear issue, they primarily patrol in what they regard as an Arctic Bastion, and that’s in the barren Sea area. And they patrol on that area, but then they patrol it also into the Norwegian Sea and down into the Greenland Iceland UK gap, you know, and, so they can but that’s a – they have to go through there. And they run they run into NATO patrols there. But yeah, they have access to the Atlantic Ocean, certainly there and they have access to the Pacific Ocean through the Bering Strait. But the primary patrols as understood now are in the Barents Sea. And one of the reasons that they’re building up there, their conventional military capacity is to patrol there, their Bastion to protect their – those SSBNs that are patrolling in the Bering Sea to protect them from American and NATO, anti-submarine warfare activity.

Metta Spencer 

Do people know where they are? I mean, if they’re out, you know, probably around. I use pejorative things as if you know, everything they do is surreptitious, but actually, maybe they have every right to go hunting around. Can other countries find them easily? Or is this part of the – the whole strategy is to make them invisible,

Ernie Regehr 

it’s part of the whole strategy to make them visible and other countries, meaning the United States really can find them and is increasingly interested in developing anti-submarine warfare capacity in the Bering Sea, the US Navy just put out an Arctic strategy document just this past week in which they – it talks about additional patrols in the Bering Sea. Now that I mean, I regard that as a very destabilizing development. I mean, the whole point of having a bastion in the Bering Sea for these SSBN patrol is in support of deterrence and an assured second-strike and for the US to increasingly and aggressively patrol with anti-submarine warfare activity. That puts those submarines in peril and in worries about a first strike, preemptive strike. So, one of the arms control proposals that is out there is that both Russia in the Arctic, and the United States in its own Atlantic and Pacific areas close to its borders should have areas in which are free of anti-submarine warfare activity, in other words, bastions for the SSBN to patrol because as long as there – as long as there is a deterrent system, you want that deterrent system to have an assured second strike and not be in danger of being attacked and a preemptive strike. And so one of the proposals for the Arctic is to leave it be from the point of view of the SSBN. Don’t go looking for them, because that’s destabilizing.

Metta Spencer 

That’s, you know, kind of paradoxical, but of course, it makes sense. When you think about it, it wouldn’t occur to me that you know, we peaceful people ought to be out there defending the second strike. Yeah,

Ernie Regehr 

well, we – the – what I would say what we’re doing is not defending the right to retaliate with nuclear weapons. What we’re, what we’re doing is saying you – is preventing preemptive strikes.

Metta Spencer 

Yeah, I can understand the reasoning. It makes sense, but it wouldn’t actually – probably wouldn’t have occurred to me because that was

Ernie Regehr 

one of the most dangerous things if, if the United States and Russia, for example, we’re in a very, very major political crisis point, if you have active anti-submarine warfare, then you have both sides thinking, well, it’s my, to my advantage to use this thing before – to use these weapons before I lose them. And so, if you have, if you have active anti-submarine patrols, you’re creating incentives to go first. And then, the last.

Metta Spencer 

So, I guess the same logic would mean, you want them to be invisible if possible.

Ernie Regehr 

That’s exactly – that’s exactly right. That’s why the Russians have a bastion, which we should – which the West should honour. And then that’s a stabilizing thing. And then, you work through New START and other provisions to whittle away and, and reduce those Arsenal’s until we get to the point of elimination. In the meantime,

Metta Spencer 

I wasn’t aware that New START covered that,

Ernie Regehr 

It covers all strategic range nuclear weapons. So that includes those, those seven submarines that are in the – that Russia has in – each with 16 missiles and multiple warheads. So that’s a – there’s a big chunk of the Russian arsenal is there.

Metta Spencer 

Well, have they – has the New START? I mean, it’s been in effect since Obama, and what’s his face? That … did it? And has it actually reduced any of these maritime weapons?

Ernie Regehr 

Well, and yes, it has indeed, I mean, it as you know, reduces the total, the total deployable Arsenal to 1550 warheads, and each side can decide which vehicles that whether it wants most of them put on submarines, or most of them on land-based missiles and so forth. But it’s so – it restricts them so – So since New START, these submarines have never carried the maximum number of nuclear warheads that they could, because they’re, in order to keep them under the New START limits.

Metta Spencer 

We know which particular missiles have been removed.

Ernie Regehr 

Yeah, there are verification provisions within the New START, and the details of which I’m not an expert on. And I don’t know

Metta Spencer 

Why now, if – if the thing gets renewed as no doubt Biden will do, well, I shouldn’t say no doubt that it seems that they will. Is it – will it be further – How many more will be taken out? Is that part? I know that there’s – it’s just a matter of renewing, but does that – do they have a quota fixed number that they already plan to, to do with the next stage or what?

Ernie Regehr 

No, so that the renewal will simply keep in place, the 1550 warhead maximum, and in many ways, more importantly, the verification provisions within the – in the treaty that will keep that all in place. And then the Biden administration to be has indicated that then it is committed, then to begin negotiations towards the follow-on treaty. And whether the New START is renewed for a full five years, which it can be done by just presidential decree. That’s probably the wise move. And then – and then they have that time in order to negotiate a new one and possibly involve China in it, which is what the Trump administration was.

Metta Spencer 

You think that’s realistic? I mean, I knew that Trump was demanding that but I thought he was just playing, you know, fiddling around trying to disguise the fact that he wasn’t going to participate.

Ernie Regehr 

No, no, I mean, I – at this point, it was a way of making sure that it wouldn’t get extended If required, but in the long run, China, of course, has to be drawn in, as do all of the nuclear power. So, whether that’s in the next round, or after that, I don’t know but the – but renewing it or extending it will allow for negotiations towards a follow on trading.

Metta Spencer 

Okay, I jumped right in and started asking irrelevant questions before you had a chance to say the basic things about where things are,

Ernie Regehr 

where all of the military bases that are – that the conventional military bases that are -that run about 20 of them from the Pacific Coast, right up near Bering Strait. And to all the way to Murmansk. And those, I’ll just talk about those a little bit, if you don’t mind, those are all in the process of being refurbished. And the – I mean, the primary interest in refurbishing them is one – is new issues related to sovereignty, the Arctic for all of the, the northern state has been just becoming a much more accessible place. And so, Russia has a very, very long frontier, and so needs much more the surveillance and situational awareness activity in order to monitor that frontier. So, they have, they have those facilities. And then – and you mentioned right off the top, they have major resources. And I mean, it’s a – it’s a significant part of their GDP about 20-25%. And, the population as well. So, there are there – It has vital interest in that area that it seeks to, to defend, as, and also, it’s the, it’s the northern sea route. That is the one that is opening up that you get from China wants to wants to ship to, to Western Europe, for example, if it goes up through the Bering Sea through the northern sea route along the Russian coast, and then down to UK and Western Europe, it takes about 10-11 sailing days off the trip, rather than going around Suez Canal. So, there’s a very, very keen interest in, in opening up that, that northern sea road which Russia is doing with some Chinese investments, as well. So that’s another part of it and there – and so that they the – Russia is developing a radar coverage, and air defense coverage for that whole – that whole part of the Arctic along its coast. And then – and then the more traffic that there is, the more need there is for search and rescue and emergency response capability. So, of those – of those 20 bases that are strung along from the Pacific to Murmansk, 10 of those, or nine of those actually are designated as emergency response centers. So, they have a – there’s a – there’s a major capacity for a search and rescue that is needed and required. And that really applies to all Arctic states that, that for all of them, their coastal regions, including Canada, are becoming increasingly accessible, and there’s more traffic in them. And so that the requirements for search and rescue are greater. And, and that means there’s much more of the military activity in the north now is an aid to civil authorities, civil authorities, civilian institutions, and agencies have basic responsibility for managing waterways and search and rescue and those kinds of things. And so – but it’s the military that has the capacity to do that. And that’s, that’s a big part of their, their operation. That’s a big part of the Russian military operation is aid to civil authorities as

Metta Spencer 

well as – that’s a good reason. Yeah, the thing about it, you know, compared to Canada, and other states, the US, of course, has, has some, you know, Alaska and so on. What about other countries in ratio? I mean, what you say the Russian is building way up, are other countries building at the same rate, increasing military and, search and rescue and icebreakers and things like that. Are they getting into it?

Ernie Regehr 

Now, I would say Norway, like Norway is the most active because it’s, it’s right on the border. And, and Russia has significant artillery bases, infantry bases, rather, in -within tens of kilometers from the border with Norway and the border with Finland. So, there are concerns there and NATO has stepped up its presence in response to that and Norway has a bigger maritime presence as well, because it’s right in the zone with Russia. Canada is – has the same requirements for increased attention to search and rescue, air defense and so forth. Most of that is civilian activity. And there – and the expansion isn’t nearly anywhere close to the rate of the Russian expansion. There’s a new naval facility for basically – for refueling at Nanisivik on – in the Canadian north. Baffin Island. And in that – and the – I think I’ve got that right. And then I guess the big Canadian issue is the North warning system, you know, what we used to know as the DEW line all of the radars across the north. And there is a feeling that with increased activity in the, in the north, and particularly around the part of Russia, North America’s own air defense capability needs to be enhanced, and particularly domain awareness, they have the radar facilities to be able to detect everything that comes within range of Canadian territory. Right now, those radars are all running along the Arctic Ocean just above the Arctic Circle, but they don’t cover the northern part of the Canadian archipelago then the Arctic, our archipelago. So that’s a thing that’s in the works for Canada. It’s nothing concrete yet. But there’s a lot of discussion in military circles about what, what the way in which that North warning system is going to be.

Metta Spencer 

You know, I hadn’t even heard about the North warning system or the DEW line for 20 years. And I guess I thought I would – if you’d asked me, I would have guessed that maybe with satellites that that’s, you know, a passe thing, you know, not needed anymore. But are you saying that that is really an essential part of?

Ernie Regehr 

If you want to be able to identify and every state should be able to identify aircraft that are coming into its airspace, you need to have radar, satellites don’t help you with that, because they’re not, they’re not the same kind of continuous coverage. So, you need -you need to have radar in order to do that, and the more that you have low flying and, and hyper speed, aerial, and missiles, and then it gets much more complicated, but you need to have a coastal radar capacity, which Canada has on the east and west coast, we have coastal radars. And so that’s a big thing that NORAD does is monitor the air traffic, which is all civilian coming in into Canada, but we don’t have that capacity for all of Canadian territory in the north. So, there are renewal or modernization requirements there, which is going to be expensive, and a longer-term thing, but they’re in the exploration stage

Metta Spencer 

We have to have people actually manning these.

Ernie Regehr 

No, I don’t think so. The North warning systems no are not staffed. They’re – so the connection is the communication links to them, but not – they don’t need to have people on base constantly, and they have to visit there presumably on a regular basis. But

Metta Spencer 

well, you know, I guess the only reason for needing a lot of military presence is if you don’t trust somebody who’s your neighbor, or and – I – and so that the question, I guess is, how are folks getting along up there? I was, you know, at 20 – 10, 15 years ago, all the peace workers I knew who knew anything about the Arctic, were reassuring us that it’s one of those places on the planet where people seem to be friendly toward each other at least cooperative, and there wasn’t any real dispute happening. So, cool it, don’t worry. But I don’t hear that kind of reassurance very often. Tell me what is the real situation? Who’s our friend and who – do we have any enemies

Ernie Regehr 

Well, the – I think one of the extraordinary things about the Arctic is that it has been a zone of unusual cooperation. And there’s a whole – there’s a range of international agreements and, and international political commitments to continue that cooperation and that, for example, the identification of control over the continental shelf is all – it’s all – there’s a, there’s a law-based process by which that takes place. So, I think the broader consensus in mainstream conventional and Western circles, including military circles is that the Arctic is not an area of imminent threat. There’s not an expectation of Arctic induced combat in the, in the Arctic, no one – it’s not in anybody’s interest to do that. There are some fears about spillover from conflict and other regions into the, into the Arctic, I mean, in as much as there is major military presence there. If you – if the NATO and Russia were to come into active conflict in Europe, God forbid, the likelihood of that spilling over into the Arctic is fairly strong. But the likelihood of Arctic conflict rising, escalating to a crisis, in which military combat seems a possibility, that I think is universally regarded as very, very low. But there is increasing military activity there. And there has, and there have. So, there are also increasing calls for there to be dialogue – military to – military dialogue between Russia and the NATO states, in the Arctic. And particularly, that there should be broader strategic dialogue between NATO, North America and Russia, on coming to common understandings that what are the requirements for strategic stability in the Arctic for a, for a rule of law operations, tactical and day to day operations in the Arctic, so the requirement for dialogue and that kind of diplomatic engagement is – gets – becomes much more important, and the isolation of Russia from these forums, as has happened since 2014, in the Crimea, that we need to get over that, and understand that we need to be in constant dialogue with them. And that’s not a means of, of turning a blind eye to violations of another state sovereignty. But it’s a means – it’s for the purpose of trying to maintain stability in a region, which if it goes bad, is bad for the whole globe.

Metta Spencer 

Okay, I’m just trying to think of all the states that are in the Arctic, how – are all of them either members of NATO or Russia?

Ernie Regehr 

There is – so that they’re – understood, there are eight Arctic states and eight states in the Arctic Council. There’s Russia. And then there are five NATO members, US, Canada, Greenland, Denmark, Iceland, and Norway, and then Sweden and Finland, which are our partners, or NATO partner states, essentially. So, it’s a fairly one-sided thing, but Arctic – but Russia is not a minority in the sense of vast land and sea areas, and resources and populations. You know,

Metta Spencer 

what would you say that the, the Russian military is equivalent to the combined militaries of all these other states, the NATO states plus Finland and, and Sweden did you say?

Ernie Regehr 

Yeah, well, it’s, it’s superior to all of those combined with actual facilities in the Arctic. But of course, it’s much inferior to NATO collectively, right. And the United – you know, the United States has very, very little military presence in the Arctic except for submarine patrols. That’s its main presence there – whereas – and has one operating icebreaker, whereas, you know, Russia, as we know has 40 to 50, operating,

Metta Spencer 

How many does Canada have?

Ernie Regehr 

I think it’s six, a half a dozen, it doesn’t have a – especially of middle range, icebreakers. So, these are coastal icebreaking. Russia is acquiring new generations of nuclear-powered icebreakers. They already have some of those, but they’re, they’re building icebreakers that will go through up to four meters of ice. So that’s a big, big, big ship. And, and, you know, the concern is that, that it can create pathways for not only for liquid natural gas tankers, but also for, for military vessels using – Is there any part of the Arctic Ocean that they – that no icebreaker could penetrate? Well, and right now, the – in – I’m not sure in that in the dead of winter, but there have been, but there have been voyages directly through the central Arctic Ocean, through the thickest part of the ice.

Metta Spencer 

So, the ice there, you’d say about four meters at the worst. And so, somebody, somebody can go there if they want to. Okay. Now, you mentioned the connection between Russia and China. And I know they have some sort of strange friendship nowadays. But how friendly are they? That is, I understand that China would like to have a presence in the Arctic in some form, and is always claiming new ways of establishing a presence there, but with not – for example, a gold mine, I think recently, that was one of the things

Ernie Regehr 

they wanted to buy it from a Canadian one

Metta Spencer 

But would Russia support China’s requests to be part of the Arctic? I don’t know whether they want to join the Arctic Council, or I guess they couldn’t, but what and how are they trying to get their toehold there? And does Russia play along with that?

Ernie Regehr 

Well, I – the Chinese, I think it’s correct to say, do not really have a keen interest in a military presence. I mean, some people fear an Arctic military presence by China. But China wants a shipping route through the Arctic. And obviously, and it certainly wants access to rare earth minerals in Greenland and Canada and so forth. I mean, it has mining interests. It has a lot of commercial interests that it sees potential value in the Arctic, but a big part of it is the shipping route. And China’s certainly helping Russia and building an infrastructure for a shipping route through its Arctic so that there’s cooperate cooperation there. There’s no question.

Metta Spencer 

Well, if we open or if we, as if you and I personally will open the Arctic, but if somebody opens the Arctic shipping, I would assume that it would be international that any anybody with a rowboat who wants to go there can do it? It wouldn’t be specifically China’s shipping route, it would be international, right?

Ernie Regehr 

Yeah, absolutely. And it runs in the northern sea route, runs entirely through the exclusive economic zone of Russia, not through Russia and territorial waters, in some parts of it do, depending on the ice conditions. But all it’s within the exclusive economic zone. So that gives Russia some obligations in order to do environmental controls and those kind of kind of things that have to happen in a shipping.

Metta Spencer 

What an economic zone is

Ernie Regehr 

Well the – so that the – I’m the wrong person to explain this. I’m not an international law expert, but essentially, along the coastline there, there’s – 12 miles out are territorial waters. And that’s the exclusive zoning the same as the land, it’s – you have sovereignty over that area, and then 200 miles out, is you have exclusive economic rights within that, within that zone. But these are international waters. And everybody has the right to travel them. The Americans charge and I’m and I think the Russians give them reason to that, that Russia is really claiming it’s those exclusive economic zone waters as being Russian waters and aiming to manage them as if they were territorial sovereign waters of Russia, and requiring other states to get permission, so forth. So, the United States in this new naval document is talking increasingly about doing freedom of navigation missions through there just to establish, establish the fact that these are international waters that everybody has a right to,

Metta Spencer 

Okay. Also been a few years ago anyway, and I don’t know whether it’s settled, there was a, there was a dispute based on where the shelf of the, of the continent ends or drops off or something like that, that the water rights and the claims to certain parts of the ocean would be settled on the basis of where – I guess there’s a drop off

Ernie Regehr 

Yeah, Law of the Sea that is now being all of the Arctic states are putting in proposals to define their, their continental shelf where it goes in and goes beyond it can go beyond the exclusive economic zone. And that gives you right to the resources on the ocean floor. Exclusive. Right, I see the resources on the open of ocean floor. And so, in the North Pole area that means both, I mean, Russia has laid claims on that, as has Greenland as has Canada, I think that’s it. But these are so – but it’s understood that these disputes will be settled by scientists, not by soldiers. Depends on science, collecting scientific data on where the, where the continental shelf…

Metta Spencer 

and that still has to be determined.

Ernie Regehr 

Yeah, all their claim claims are in and that will take a long time, under the Law of the Sea for that all to be to be settled. No one has immediate access to that area, in a way.

Metta Spencer 

And so, there’s stuff down there that people might want to drill for or what. I hope you’re not gonna put oil wells and stuff there.

Ernie Regehr 

That’s exactly right. But I – it’s so – it’s not sure, I mean, I don’t, I just don’t know enough about it to know what all kinds of potential resources are. But that, that’s in the process of being settled. And there was the – something called the Ilulissat declaration 2008. In Ilulissat, town in Greenland, where all of the Arctic states met, and committed themselves to settling Arctic disputes according to existing international law, which is Law of the Sea. And that was a, that was an important, important declaration in principle that reinforced the Arctic as an arena of cooperation, rather than competition leading to – come to conflict. And in 2018, that Declaration was again, was renewed. And so that’s part of the – and in the – in for the International Arctic Ocean. There has been an all-Arctic agreement to prohibit any fishing that becomes available in the central Arctic Ocean until such time that there have been scientific studies done to assess the nature of the fish stocks and how much fishing can be, can be controlled. And that’s an agreement of all of the Arctic states, including, but non-Arctic states as well, including Japan and, and China. Well, that’s just another, that’s another example of the cooperative milieu of the Arctic.

Metta Spencer 

Yeah. Well now tell me about Novaya Zemlya. Right. That’s, that’s where they tested nuclear weapons. I don’t know what else they did up there. But doesn’t sound like a place anybody would want to live. What, what – Is there still military activity going on up there? And tell me about it?

Ernie Regehr 

Yeah, there is a new, there’s a new base being developed there now. And it. It’s interesting because it’s one of those trefoil bases, one of these that you may have seen pictures in the newspapers of this three-pronged base of big military facilities that can house several hundred Russian troops throughout the year. And it’s in – they’re quite grand facilities that have everything from a chapel to gymnasiums to all of this. And so there, there are station troops there, as well as radar facilities and, and air defense facilities are out of there

Metta Spencer 

Is the place contaminated? I worry, you know, you hear about things like places where they have – where there are sunken submarines with, you know, a lot of radioactive material that nobody knows how to get at anymore. Is the Arctic in general, a, a safe environment? Or are there radioactive contaminants floating around up there?

Ernie Regehr 

Yeah, well, I think that there is. I mean, there’s been a lot of cleanup that was done through this international partnership agreement that Canada was part of, and there’s still major legacy from the cold war and nuclear weapons development by that. I mean, that’s, that’s about as much detail as I’m…

Metta Spencer 

They haven’t been testing any weapons, or at least nuclear explosives there for what, 20-30 years. How long? I don’t know.

Ernie Regehr 

I know, I don’t know for how long but for a long time, yeah. I – there’s a de facto moratorium, but when it began, I’m not recalling right now.

Metta Spencer 

But now I know that people in Kazakhstan talk about the pollution still remaining around Semipalatinsk. So, I wondered if maybe the same thing was true around – as some – I don’t know.

Ernie Regehr 

Yeah. Yeah. No, I’m sure I’m sure it is.

Metta Spencer 

I wouldn’t volunteer to serve up there if I were you. Okay, all this is fascinating. Any advice to the world? Can – what would – if you were in charge of trying to make steps toward nuclear disarmament and toward really, an end to any hostilities, and you were responsible for the Arctic, what kinds of new decrees would you issue?

Ernie Regehr 

Well, I would simply emphasize the principle of the Ilulissat declaration and so that declaration is important and emphasize that the – this – the – all of the intention towards – attention towards on the resumption of great power competition so far, though, I mean, I think we have to make a very conscious effort to keep the Arctic out of that. And recognize that – I mean inevitably it’s part of it because it’s a major part of the Russian nuclear arsenal is there but we need to stabilize that and prevent destabilizing anti-submarine warfare patrols in the Arctic and make sure that the Arctic does not kind of become a climate, which negatively impinges upon the pursuit of nuclear arms control and elsewhere

Metta Spencer 

and protect Santa Claus ourselves.

Ernie Regehr 

That would be a priority, of course.

Thank you.

Ernie Regehr 

NORAD is on that so we’re fine.

Metta Spencer 

Okay, this has been fun. Thank you so much.

Ernie Regehr:

Pleasure. Take care.

T180. Peace Workers in Georgia

T180. Peace Workers in Georgia

 

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number: 180
Panelists: Irakli Kakabadze, Julie Christensen, and Shorena Lortkipanitze
Host: Metta Spencer

Date Aired: 5 February 2021
Date Transcribed: 16 February 2021
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits: David Millar

Metta Spencer

Hi, I’m Metta Spencer. Today we’re going to go to Tbilisi, Georgia, which I’ve never been visited, but people tell me that Georgia is just paradise, a beautiful place, especially Russians like to go there. So, I want to meet some friends. My old friend Irakli Kakabadze is in Tbilisi, Georgia in a studio someplace. And he has two friends. He’s just introduced me to Julie Christensen, whom he met in the United States when they were both I think students at George Mason University. Is that right?

Irakli Kakabadze

You were my mentor

Julie Christensen

I was a professor already. I

Metta Spencer

We got that straightened out… be sure we know the pecking order around here, who knows what. Right? Absolutely. And their friend Shorena Lortkipanitze – Irakli Kakabadze, Julie Christensen, Shorena Lortkipanitze…close enough? No, I’m not really very practiced with Georgian dialect and names. But I know they always have two or three different endings. And like you everybody in Georgia has either an -itze or a -badze… Alright, anyway, we will not explore names here. But we will know that I’ve already had a little bit of a conversation with Shorena, who is a peace worker. So, all of these folks are, you might say professional peace workers. And there is no more holy … mission in this world, then to be a peace worker, in my opinion. So hello, everybody, it’s nice to meet you. Well, let’s sort of pretend that I am the guest and Irakli is the host, because you have some topics that you would like for us to cover. And, and therefore, I think you should be in charge of deciding what you want us to talk about. And I’ll do my best. Okay, exactly. What would you like for this conversation to be all about today? Yes,

Irakli Kakabadze

there are a number of very interesting topics for war and peace times — from Georgia, and in Georgia, and to Georgia — because right now, war and peace times are around the world. And yesterday was very interesting speech by President Joe Biden, who made a number of points about US foreign policy. And of course, the whole Caucasus and whole world was looking towards this speech. And BBC was having it in live and lots of other stations, and it’s broadcast everywhere. And he talked a bit about Russia. And he talked about spreading the power of democracy, which the whole world is waiting. And he said, America is back, which is a very interesting statement. And in South Caucasus, we do have a need of America being back — because lots of Georgians, lots of Armenians and maybe Azerbaijanis and maybe other ethnicities in South Caucasus feel that America needs to be back in the Caucasus because it has been absent for four years during the Trump administration. And during that time, we already had a number of incidents and last one happened in the last months of the Trump administration when the Karabakh conflict took place and Mr. Putin and Mr. Erdogan took leadership in that conflict, even though the formal fight was between Azerbaijan and Armenia. But Mr. Putin and Mr. Erdogan proclaimed both of them that they kind of peacefully solve the conflict, which is unfortunately not true. And lots of people have died in this very, very horrible conflict. And right now, we have a new division by which Georgia is kind of surrounded by neighboring empires. And it’s almost 100 years since the Kars treaty between Soviet Russia (basically Soviet republics of Caucasus), but it was Russia and Turkey. It was done in September and October of 1921, which basically divided Caucasus in two halves between Turkish Empire and Russian Empire. Now, lots of people are afraid there’s going to be a new division between Turkey and Russia which seem to be in alliance against the West. And because of that lots of people, lots of ordinary people are very concerned that Georgia is going to be facing another number of occupations — since we do have number of territories that are occupied already, but with the pronouncement of Mr. Erdogan several months ago in Baku, which made that… six-nations Caucasus union, he proclaimed that Russia and Turkey will… lead a new alliance with Russia to Iran, and then three South Caucasian republics… Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia, which lots of people didn’t like. And that initiative by Mr. Erdogan, who is… not very well known… as a democrat, as much as his friend, Mr. Putin. They’ve made some interesting and very, very unusual, I would say, first time in… history, maybe with few exceptions… like Lenin and Ataturk in 1921, that Turkey and Russia made a deal, how to divide South Caucasus, and now America is back after being absent for four years.

Metta Spencer

Wait a minute now. They, Russia and Turkey have made a deal of how to divide the South Caucasus. That’s a big statement. I never, I don’t think that made any public statement. But how do you think they have agreed to divide the South Caucasus? That is a remark, remarkable claim? Do they acknowledge that as surely, they haven’t admitted that that’s what they’re going to do?

Irakli Kakabadze

No, the pronouncement here this year was — last year actually — was by Mr. Erdogan that he’s created, Russia and Turkey, are creating a six-nation Union of the Caucasus, of which the members are Turkey, Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and if Armenia desires they could join… that was the pronouncement… and it is easy to check this, how they divided the Caucasus in 1921 in the famous Kars treaty, that a number of Georgian provinces went to Turkey, number of Georgian provinces went to Russia… Saingilo province went to Azerbaijan, and there were some other Georgian provinces that were divided between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. So it’s the new division — which set up the whole Karabakh situation and all other things — happened in the city of Kars in 1921, and on 100th anniversary, it could be revised, according to that treaty. So Mr. Erdogan was basically saying that now Caucasus would revise this treaty and those big countries who were always deciding the fate of small nations (like Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan) would make a new deal, to make a new beginning… make a new day.

Metta Spencer

I would like to hear Shorena and Julie, react to what you said, because I heard you say something similar last time, we had a talk show, but I didn’t, I kind of let it fly past me. Because I think what you’re saying is such an extraordinary assertion, if it’s clear that this is true, and why don’t — I mean, it’s, it’s an epoch-making development, and everybody in the world should be talking about it. But I haven’t heard anybody else say it. And I wonder how much other people would agree with your assumption, and I’m assuming that it’s really just your guess, that they made some sort of deal. Because, you know, we would hear about it. Shorena and Julie, please, what do you think of what he’s just said? Do you agree with him?

Julie Christensen

I’m going to go you know, I’m, I’m the American here. I’m going to listen to Shorena first, then I will respond.

Shorena Lortkipanitze

So, I would differently — I mean, this is one of the assumptions. But I would… not say that… there is deal or there is conspiracy or they have divided and —

Irakli Kakabadze

Announcement of six nations.

Shorena Lortkipanitze

Yes, yes, absolutely. But I would To draw attention and focus more on the situation, now in the Caucasus. So, remarkable thing happens. You know, in the Caucasus we were, I was growing up and when I was student, lecturing, and we we used to have this frozen conflict here in the Caucasus — and even thinking about that, what should be the kind of resolution or how it will develop? I mean, it was so difficult to think… how this frozen conflict would melt. So, what will happen? How… would it happen? It would be military, it would be peaceful, how? I mean, what are in the minds of big states, active in the region regarding that? So, and actually, every time as especially Azerbaijani-Armenian tension grew up… I was thinking that… they will stop, because — yes, is it beneficial for countries? how long this tension will last? All these violent conflicts, and what happened last year, from 27th of September until 10th of November… the period of war. I mean, that was something again, with this deal, and with this, changing the status in the region itself, the status quo. This is something very, very remarkable. It gives a lot of —

Irakli Kakabadze

All these people dying, “remarkable”?

Shorena Lortkipanitze

At lot of people died… from both sides, and lots of civilians, and new IDPs, different emotions and attitudes towards the developments in the region, and frustration for peace workers, because we couldn’t do anything. I mean, not me, but also me as a part of that process… it happened because last year, this time, we were organizing a peace march with… the Gandhi Foundation, and we were so excited about Armenia meeting peace-marchers and these people, and then we were waiting for them in Georgia. We wanted somehow to connect this peace march with Azerbaijan, and then this war… pandemic and then war. I mean, this is something we would have to, I mean, how, what does the we have to ask questions: are wars still… are these conflicts still won by wars? I mean, is military still so much important in international relations in, in, in today’s world — if you have big army… For me, this is the question first of all…, to understand because if we see the forces’ military balance in the region, in… among South Caucasus countries, Azerbaijan has the biggest army, better equipment, technology, and Turkey… supporting and backing — and then Armenia also quite big military power, Georgia very small. And what we see is… that if you have big military and you have good technologies, and you have drones, you can win wars? And then what? I mean, this is something what’s really very frustrating.

Metta Spencer

Let me ask broaden the question a little bit, because you talked about the frozen conflict in the Caucasus. I of course, the first thing I would be thinking… was Armenia and Azerbaijan, but there are other frozen conflicts, you know, the South Ossetia and all these parts of Georgia that are in question, you know, what, what’s the status and

Irakli Kakabadze

occupied by Russians.

Metta Spencer

Yeah. Okay. You’re looking for a new solution that presumably would reduce the frozen conflict solve, settle the frozen conflict in all of those places, but not, not one big move. There’s no one initiative, is there, to try to reorganize who’s in control of what territory in the Caucasus? I mean, what I think Irakli is suggesting is that there’s a plan underway to Make a grand…rejigging of the Caucasus, you know, the map, in the Caucasus… between Russia and Turkey.

Julie Christensen

So I’d like to jump in here as somebody who has worked on the Soviet Union and Russia for a long time. So, I would say this that, you know, it has always been clear that there were two empires, the Russian Empire, and the Ottomans. And the question was… where was the boundary between the Russians and the Ottomans? And that’s, I think, what were we thinking about a little bit here… because these are the big powers. And then we have the smaller powers in the middle. And… for somebody who’s worked on the Soviet Union, or Russia, I mean, I worked on Russia for a long time, I do think that: Russia has in mind and has always had in mind the fact that the Russian Empire, it’s just like, you know, Ivan the Terrible or whatever, you know, he said, all the rivers in Russia, you know, he will take the Russian Empire, to the end where all the Russian rivers flow into the ocean. You know, the Russians have always wanted to take the Russian Empire to the Ottomans. They stop there. The Russians stop, when the Turks begin. That has been historically, the boundary between those two powers, historically, for a very long time. So, what is really curious here is we have Erdogan suggesting that it’s going to be like, this little friendly little neighbourhood in which it’s going to be Turkey, Russia, Iran —

Irakli Kakabadze

IK Exactly, yeah.

Julie Christensen

— and Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan clearly may be okay with that. Armenia has a lot of friends. And I just feel like Georgia is going to be feeling a little bit worried. Because it’s going to, it’s going to put… it’s throwing Georgia back into, into Russia, as you know, another “Orthodox” (give me a break!) country. I mean, this, this worries me a lot, too. As as an American who’s very far away, it’s not my problem. I’m a Scandinavian, you know — but I would like the Scandinavians right here right now. And I think this is a serious problem.

Metta Spencer

I know I’d like to Norwegians here right now. No, I —

Irakli Kakabadze

On the next show —

Julie Christensen

Know, I’m very worried about this too. Maybe. On the other hand, I love what Shorena was saying at our last meeting, which was that Turkey nevertheless is a member of NATO, right? And maybe we could cut this a different way. Maybe we could do a different… cookie cutter thing. Maybe it doesn’t have to be, you know, the Russian Empire verse versus the Ottomans. But and, you know, and then I have to say that I was just listening to you Metta… we have a lot of problems that are global. Here, that are like a higher-level problem… no matter where we are, and I think, you know, this is like on a lower-level problem. And I know there this is this new book I haven’t read recently by some woman who wrote this is, is it an inevitable that we have to be at war all the time — are wars, you know, just in our nature? and so, I’m sort of sitting here in Tbilisi in quarantine forever. Ugh! And, you know, just wondering how it’s gonna play out with the Ottomans, the Russians, these two empires, and, you know, NATO and, you know, and where we’re going globally. So that’s where we are.

Metta Spencer

If you wanted it, let’s say you’re trying to think of an alternative to having two big empires, again, bumper to bumper. Then the third option… would be to figure out how the EU would be related to that. And I don’t see that much connection. I don’t even see that much interest in the EU in trying to establish a foothold or something in the Caucasus. I mean, it would be nice if we could say yes — certainly I don’t think you can count on Biden. I don’t think the US has any — you know, they’re not in the game —

Irakli Kakabadze

Can I make some explanation here because I think when I made this speech about the Kars Treaty, which is a historic fact — basically, Russia and Turkey have divided the caucuses in a new way? I mean, before that, you know, the towns of Artvin and Kars and all these places belonged to Russian Empire. And then they belong to independent republics of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, lots of the territories — and then they were taken, and kind of divided by the Soviet empire and Ottomans… Ataturk… but to Empire, but the whole thing is there right now. Why do people desire Americans here, why people desire Europeans, also president Macron’s… involvement?

Metta Spencer

I’m not hearing too well. Back up. Why something Americans there? Would you say?

Irakli Kakabadze

Why people desire America? And why people desire French? why people desire British? they’re not talking about NATO.

Metta Spencer

Why… Georgians want relationship, with the US with was the French with the Britain. Right?… if they don’t want Putin or Erdogan, what else have you got?

Irakli Kakabadze

They see — the lots of Georgians have lots of historical memories from those two empires, which are very painful, and are in lots of ways are afraid of those two empires conquering Georgia again, which is very close to reality… that union of six starts to function. Throughout Georgian history of 25 centuries, barely what we will say that with the newest history of Georgia, today has been conquered number of times by Ottoman Empire as well as by Persians. But then, of course, last 200 years were under the Russian Empire. So, it’s very understandable that people not just Georgians but other peoples in the Caucasus too have those fears. Different types of fears, see that Russia and Turkey are together to make a new order. And they already made it because Russian troops are right now in Karabakh and South Azerbaijan. Turkish troops were there on the parade in Baku and northern Azerbaijan. There’s a long history of the involvement of these empires in the Caucasus, and right now to defend a democratic state and democratic civilization, the democratic system, or let’s say, a liberal democratic system — right now, lots of people feel that connection. And basically, a partnership treaty. A partnership treaty with the United States of America and European Union will be the only solution to save the sovereignty of those small countries, especially in Georgia.

Metta Spencer

Well, it sounds reasonable. I would, I would say that if most Russia and Turkey have reached any kind of agreement, then indeed, the only option that you might have is hope that —

Irakli Kakabadze

There is no agreement yet. I’m sorry to interrupt, but there is no agreement yet. But the pronouncement was made very clearly by Mr. Erdogan. And he knows how to do it. And Mr. Putin agreed. So, this is very concerning.

Metta Spencer

Okay, then the name of the game is how to get Europe interested. I don’t think that the US is going to be at all engaged there. I don’t see how you could expect the US to help much at all. But Europe maybe, France maybe.

Julie Christensen

Yeah…

Irakli Kakabadze

The United States has military bases right now, from Turkey to Greece. Some military bases there. There’s a talk about this. And, of course, the Georgian civil hope that President Biden he mentioned the situation around Russia. And he’s, I understand, (of course, that that could be a not very good sign for some peace builders with Russia), but … he is much more principled with the Russian imperialists in lots of ways. So, he said the infringing on… sovereignty of the independent nations of Georgia and Ukraine is unacceptable for the United States. And I would add, this is true because… certain territories in Georgia are occupied by Russian forces as well as certain territories in Ukraine. And in this situation, sovereignty is absolutely breached by the Russian forces. And right now, the union of Russia, Turkey, Iran and three other nations, small nations who won’t have any power over them. This is very, very — and we need to look for some ways to do it without armed intervention, of course, I’m not advocating an intervention, I’m advocating a peaceful solution to this problem, but it’s a very dangerous precedent.

Metta Spencer

Okay.

Julie Christensen

Can I add something about, you know, please, um, but I want to say something about the United States and what they’ve done in terms of supporting Georgia and supporting this region. One of the things I was most impressed by was the United States has put their third most important hospitals for wounded veterans in the entire planet, here in Tbilisi. So, there are three places: Walter Reed out of DC, somewhere in Germany… and the third is in Tbilisi, and the army, the United States Army has put them here. And another thing is, I have a lot of my students who are here doing this, I am so proud of them. But anyway, they are working on this and Tbilisi has the best equipment because it’s German. So, Tbilisi, and for prosthetics and things here, they’re here in Tbilisi, and they’re in Germany, and less in Walter Reed. But the thing is, of course, we don’t want this. I mean, this is not a desired outcome is to be — giving wounded warriors who’ve been blown up in various wars here, you know, prosthetics — but I think that they This is a sign that the United States trust the Georgians… in this region, and that is what’s so concerning here. It is so concerning here, because the United States if they’re far away, it seems like I do think I mean, I agree with Irakli, I think the United States is the best support for Georgia in a certain sense, because I think they respect the Georgians the most, although, maybe the French, the Germans, you know, maybe — I am not undermining the Europeans. But you know, the Armenians have a lot of support the Azeris have their own support. And so, we’re thinking a lot about the Georgians here. And I… I hear that concern, and I don’t know, and Shorena’s a political scientist, which I’m not I, you know, I’m, I’m really a specialist in film culture. So, I’m speaking, but I’m speaking also from the, you know, perspective of the United States and a lot of my students for many years.

Shorena Lortkipanitze

Yeah. A few comments about this six-country dialogue, right, in a partnership in the region, it’s very asymmetric I mean, of course, there is danger of — three big powerful countries, and three small, less powerful countries. And for Georgia, of course, this is very dangerous union, because you have this Russia… occupy… Georgian territory and the struggle continues, and — of course, without US participation, EU participation, that should not be happen… because we would be in a very, very weak position in that discussion… As for public discourse… if we see all these polling, sociological researches and poll links, US is [the] number one partner for Georgia, strategic partner and this is perception among public… for NATO integration and EU integration. It’s also very interesting because it’s permanent for the last few years: 80% for EU integration. Georgian population supports EU integration and partnership and friendship, let’s say with the EU, and 75% of Georgian population… support NATO membership. So and in all these pollings, Russia is always some kind of enemy it’s perceived as an enemy and occupier… it’s around 20% thinking that it’s still possible to do something to be friends with Russia. So, I mean, this is already a very good indicator of where we are … so what works for us for Georgians, we are far from US, we are far from even Europe, because even Ukraine is closer with Europe. So, we are too far. And geography still matters. And we are here like in a small part of the land between two seas, and between three big powers, let’s say because Iran is also here with… its historic, let’s say, aspirations in the region. So, it was not only Turkey, of course, it was also Iran.

Metta Spencer

When talking about that, about the Iranian aspirations, is it really that Iran wants in on this deal, or was he just fantasizing? Or were, you know, Erdogan and Putin just trying to be as inclusive as possible? How important is Iran’s influence? And how much interest is there in Georgia? In, in being in such a thing? I mean, the idea of organizing a six-nation thing, there’s nothing inherently saying that that couldn’t be in-, you know, a democratic and pretty independent region. I don’t think it’s likely but it could be, but with Iran in the deal, I don’t know. Yeah. How do people feel about Iran there? And, and about the idea of being somehow a partner with Iran?

Shorena Lortkipanitze

Yeah, it’s very interesting. Iran was and is under sanctions. And of course, Georgia is also part of that regime. So economic relations, trade relations were quite restricted for last years because of the sanctions. And Georgia was very strict. But there were some — yeah, so this, the sanctions component in this relation is very important, because it didn’t, it does not give countries opportunity to cooperate, to trade to exchange. So that’s why this decade of this process, somehow affected very much on the economy. There is not much discussions about Iran at all. But what is what’s interesting, there was quite a big inflow of Iranians in Georgia, in 2013, and 2015, because we have very light restrictions on this entrance and permissions and so on. And a lot of Iranians were coming in Georgia, some of them were settling here, and trying to get some more permanent or some temporary… longer permits. And, and you see, in even before … pandemics, but I am speaking about beginning of second decade of 21st century, it was fair, people were coming here to have this freedom, to enjoy some kind of freedom. And even Iranian singers and musicians were coming from Europe or US, Canada and having some performances here for those coming here from Iran. So, this is that was very common. So, for Iranian people let’s say certain… travelling, Georgia was perceived as a kind of paradise of freedom, and so on and so on. And but after these restrictions, again were into force… and now, of course, pandemics. We have less people now, people from Iran, but still some businesses operate. We have Iranian Chamber of Commerce here are three, four years ago, they were certain — I was kind of writing about debts, and that’s why I’m quite informed — trade, a conference, and the Iranian minister or Deputy Minister… of trade and commerce, and all these Iranian businesses and Georgia’s. But I don’t think that it’s it went into kind of some intensive relations, but there were some attempts. And I think this was Iranian government’s attempts, somehow… the lightening of the sanctions regime and have this connection with Georgia. For many Iranians, Georgia was seen as a kind of transit country to Europe, because they were coming here to go to Europe, to US, from here. So, I mean, this is the land of opportunity… for Iranian people, and of course, in these bilateral relations, there were some attempts — but Georgians, we’re with America, I mean, all Georgian policies towards Iran. And these bilateral relations, they were very much driven by Georgian/US relations, and what is negotiated… when Julie was telling us about that Americans trust Georgians, or they like Georgians, let’s say this is because we try to adhere to the bilateral rules… what we what Georgia and US… have agreed. So, I think that this is — to tell the truth… there is no any essential discussions, Iran is not –. Yes, there are discussions about Turkey, and [t]hat’s interesting. But government have always tried to be very, very nice to Turkey, never to.. bring anything on the public discussion to surface, because we know that there were some trade-related, not very good conditions for Georgia in these bilateral trade agreements, and Georgia wanted to negotiate them or still wants, but this this is never taken… for… public discussions, and what’s interesting for Georgia/Turkey relations, before elections, one of the political parties they wanted to, they even had this big poster in Adjara Autonomous Republic, indicating that not only Russia is the enemy, but Turkey’s also enemy. And actually, there was a very, very strong public kind of protest against that, that poster, and it was very, it was kind of election, pre-election campaign, part of campaign, but it didn’t work. And this party also didn’t get as many votes as they got during previous elections in 2016. So, I mean, it’s because, yeah, I mean, this is generally how it looks like, what’s interesting. What I see as a problem is Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the relations between these countries, the level of partnership between these countries on bilateral level… trilateral… does not work because of Azerbaijan.

Metta Spencer

I’m sorry, you’re referring to — you make it sound as if there’s some positive relationship among Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan. Really.

Shorena Lortkipanitze

There was, of course,

Metta Spencer

was during the Soviet

Irakli Kakabadze

Soviet Union, of course there was.

Julie Christensen

I mean, that may sound like Pollyanna. But, but that did happen. You know, and we talk about that, in terms of the recent war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, that now, there is no sympathy between Azeris and… Armenians — where even in the previous war which was the Armenians… nevertheless, under the Soviet state, there was a sense of, you know, commonality. And, you know, and I, that sounds, maybe I’m being naive to say that, but that it was, there was there was a sense of the Caucasus under the Soviets, and that’s not here now… It’s falling apart. And part of it has to do probably with the external things which we’re talking about, which is Turkey, Russia, and everybody, you know, breaking it up. So, we have a big problem here. I mean, I also think that Iran might be interesting for here, but we also have a problem of the church, which is that the Georgian Orthodox Church… will put up with Iran. But… they won’t, and, and it’s so… tragic.

Metta Spencer

So true. Look, what is your best option, if you had this whole situation solved? What would it look like? What kind of game plan do you have in mind and or maybe you have two or three different things you’re considering? But what would you like to have come out of all of this?

Irakli Kakabadze

Metta, can I add one thing to what was described as our coexistence, because this is a very important matter, for understanding the future, how the how the future will be. So we remember times of peace and we remember it very well in 1960s 70s, or 80s. And until 1988, we… had a peaceful time where there were almost no borders between Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan. So, in the Caucasus, you need some sort of a lingua franca, as they say, today, for the peaceful coexistence of three old cultures and a number of really, really old civilizations, what, to what really worked during the Soviet Union was that Russian served as a lingua franca until our national liberation movement, and I did participate myself in that movement and Russian Empire right now is seen as an enemy, as, by majority of people. I’m not happy about that. But that’s the fact. But the problem is right now, if we don’t have a lingua franca, we need one language, Metta, we need a lingua franca to interact with each other. Because our cultures are very different, very distinct, and very old, and lingua franca, which was Russian earlier, but it cannot be Russian anymore. We need a new actually lingo franca, and all the people —

Metta Spencer

What would you like?

Irakli Kakabadze

You would like we would like to get I mean, Scandinavian will be great, as Julie has suggested.

Metta Spencer

Everybody should learn Swedish is that the solution live? Icelandic.

Irakli Kakabadze

But right now, lots of people in Georgia see United States as the strategic partner, and Georgia has contributed to the wars that the United States had in Afghanistan and Iraq. We have contributed with the soldiers and everything. And now lots of Georgians feel that we need guarantees of our security from our closest partners, basically, by peaceful means. We are not meaning that by any kind of military interaction and intervention, [but] by peaceful means. This is the United States of America, Great Britain, and maybe France. Maybe Germany, too.

Metta Spencer

I don’t think you’re gonna get it. I don’t think I’m sure. I don’t think I you know; I don’t even know whether I want it to happen. I don’t like it. I mean, but the US is not going to guarantee the national security of Georgia.

Irakli Kakabadze

But how does it go on to the national security of Afghanistan or Iraq? or Syria or in lots of other countries?

Metta Spencer

Look what happened when they did! Do you want that? No,

Irakli Kakabadze

I don’t, I don’t want Russians. I mean, the alternative to American forces is these six unions six nation union and majority of Georgian are against it. They don’t accept the Empires, the Russian and Ottoman and Iranian… it’s totally unacceptable for Georgia, to be slaves to the Russians, or Turkish or Iranians.

Metta Spencer

— if you —

Irakli Kakabadze

will never accept a life, Georgia, like that.

Metta Spencer

If you, it’s nice of you, it’s very flattering. That you’re pleading with me to give you American support for national, Georgian

Julie Christensen

 from a Canadian . Are you kidding?

Metta Spencer

Yes, I promise you we Canadians will protect you. Yeah. Yes, Canada.

Julie Christensen

Us Canada. But, you know, Dr. Ronald Suny (Chicago University), you know, back in the old days, and I don’t really like I think Ronald Suny — had, you know, was really unfair with this history. But, but, you know, his idea was, nevertheless we should have regional elections. And I think that would help because there are so many layers here you know, and when I was talking to our friends, Susan Allen (George Mason University) and stuff and she was saying, you know, not everybody hear me with all these nationalities and all these people, but I want to say one thing, that when I was in you know in Virginia, and some of the Georgians who were there, were saying, they said, you know, Americans, Americans or Europeans spend millions of dollars to protect some sort of rare species of birds or something like that, but you have ancient cultures around the world who are close to extinction. And this is what we’re talking about here. And these are really deep, you know, cultural, historical things. And it’s so worth preserving them, it is so worth preserving them. On the other hand, it’s not worth, you know, blowing up the damn planet. on these issues, you know, if we’re going to just like destroy ourselves in our planet, then who gives a flying -, say, you know, my Californian, you know, who cares? Who cares, you know, this, let it all — but if we care at all, these are ancient cultures. And it’s not just the Georgians, you know, I think that there’s others. And they are, I mean, they are so rich in culture, and in deep historical value. That, you know, the United States is like a baby, but a very big baby, and a strong baby, and Canada. And so, what are we going to do? I mean, how are we going to deal with this? And how are we going to try to survive as a, as a planet? And as a world, and at the same time preserve some of these? Absolutely, you know, wonderful things? And then why do we have to fight about it? I mean, why can’t we respect what is valuable in these old cultures?

Irakli Kakabadze

I think the world order should be about respecting small nations’ rights to exist and not to be conquered by the big empires. And that I think, could be Joe Biden’s one of the main achievements. And I really hope that he will do that, because he started like this.

Metta Spencer

Here’s where I would join you Irakli? I absolutely think that if you want to solve the problem, we’re, we’re coming at it from the wrong end. It sounds like we’re talking about how to make deals among various nation states, and try to come up with something that’s reasonable for, for the freedom and wellbeing of people in all these countries. And there, and I don’t see that happening, even with the US — leadership in the US can no longer impose its will on other countries very much. And that Biden’s not going to be able to recover that I think the angle, the approach to all of these things has to be at a global level, I think the United Nations should have some sort of new initiative to rethink some of the general rules about relations between states and the rights of – guarantee, have a guarantee from the level of the whole world providing some sort of international peace service or something like that which would come in and an offer assistance, and support in in times of crisis or conflict, and in defend human rights wherever they are, and defend civil liberties, wherever they are. And approaching it as a global thing is, I think, the only way we’re going to solve all these multiple problems. Because if you’re looking for one country, the US to defend you against another country, Russia, or even against Turkey. And if you’re looking for even the EU, EU to do that, I don’t think any of them are going to work. But a bigger solution is sometimes easier than trying a whole bunch of piecemeal.

Irakli Kakabadze

What about Metta, my question…? what about Woodrow Wilson’s great vision? great vision for 14 points of peace, where the weak should be defended and the strong should be fair, and there I agree with you, should be done throughout the through the United Nations organization. That’s absolutely the point. The point is that the small nations should not be slaughtered and genocide should not be made of the small nations because the bigger Empires are stronger. And we have number of genocides that happened in this area. And all these people have suffered because they’re small, just because they’re small. And now, the United Nation, United Nations needs to get stronger. And I would like to ask you this. Once we do this — we’ve never heard of United Nations, and the United States and France and Great Britain and other security council members contribute to this anti-imperialist stance, which establishes the right for small nations to exist, and not national Darwinism.

Metta Spencer

Okay, we could go off on a whole different program here, where we talk about national sovereignty, and Woodrow Wilson’s principle of self-determination, etc., which I think is the only thing that he did wrong. I mean, maybe he did other things wrong, but that was a blooper. I think the whole notion of self-determination for nations, and the emphasis on protecting nations, is exactly what has led us into this rabbit hole. So, I don’t want to get into that right now. Because I think we need a whole different conversation about that. But I’m looking at transnational guarantees that the world protects the rights of any, any people who are being threatened, or her rights are being deprived. And that would have to be a global effort. But we’d have to stop thinking in terms of the importance of guaranteeing nations. I know, frankly… nationalism is the worst enemy.

Julie Christensen

But you know, so there’s a question of their nationalism on one hand, and there’s also cultural history on the other. And what we need to do we need to do is, perhaps it isn’t a nation, doesn’t have to be a nation, but we have to somehow protect that part, which is the history of, you know, culture, and humanity that has come and maybe it’s been associated with nations. But, and maybe we could sort of decouple that and say, let’s, you know, so there’s also this great value of human intelligence and culture. And we can’t lose that either, as we survive. So how do we combine those two, and they don’t have to be by nation, even language, you know, we don’t want to lose all these languages of the world of humanity. We don’t want to you know, do we really want to all speak one language? I mean, maybe we’d be happier. But, I mean, there are so gorgeous — I mean, it’s like, it’s like nature, nature is not like one animal.

Metta Spencer

I think, you know, it’s a beautiful question. And obviously, we have less than one minute to answer it. I didn’t think we’re gonna answer it today. But I think we have an agenda already established right there for another conversation; don’t you think? Exactly, no, and it is. So

Julie Christensen

it’s such an important con- you know, it’s that it’s very, very important.

Metta Spencer

Right? Well, we’ve had a good start for what I think is a very important discussion.

Irakli Kakabadze

Thank you and I’ll go for it. Next discussion.

Metta Spencer

Thank you all. It’s been fun.

T158. Democracy and War

T158. Democracy and War

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number: 158
Panelists: Marc Eliot Stein
Host: Metta Spencer

Date Aired: 11 January 2021
Date Transcribed: 11 March 2021
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits: David Millar

Metta Spencer

Hi, I’m Metta Spencer. Do you think we can solve the problem of war? Do you think we can abolish war? Well, I’ve been working on it a while. And we’re going to talk to somebody today who’s also working on that. He’s working in an outfit called World Beyond War. And this is Mark Eliot Stein. Hi, Mark. How are you?

Marc Eliot Stein

Great… thanks for inviting me here.

Metta Spencer

Well, we’re both of us peace workers, or in casual terms, peaceniks. And you’re in New York, I think, and I’m in Toronto, and we met a couple of years ago, or maybe three at a conference that… our board put on here in Toronto… your organization’s the most effective peace working outfit I have seen. You’re really good at it.

Marc Eliot Stein

Well, we’d all be thrilled. Well, it’s —

Metta Spencer

And I really respect the extraordinary organizational capacity. And I don’t exactly know what your role in it is. But I think that you handle a lot of communications things for the organization, right. So I think we need to eventually get to talking about our mutual concerns about trying to bring peace to the world. But really, I don’t think we can start the day as if nothing had happened yesterday. Because yesterday was the day when Biden was certified as the next president of the US. And I was busy on zoom with other things until quite late in the evening, when I first discovered that there had been that there’d been a domestic terrorist attack against the US Congress. And so in a way, I’m just getting caught up on that news. But I was shocked beyond belief. Maybe we should start off by talking about what has to be a threat to human security and peace. Globally — when we have… what even nice people would call a madman in…. power, and with control over… nuclear weapons… from the US, as well as all the other military units. I think we are talking about: How the hell did people get ourselves into a predicament like that? Where we are… the world … human civilization could be put to an end? … he could he could push a button… And that would be the end of civilization. And human beings have set it up to be that way. I think that’s something we ought to give a little thought to. What do you think?

Marc Eliot Stein

Oh, for sure. Yes, it is… quite a morning to be talking to you. I’d like to… reference what you said about World Beyond War. That’s very nice to hear that you think highly of this organization. And there are several peace organizations… one thing that I really like about the peace movement is none of us are competitive with each other, we’re all on the same team. And you know, World Beyond War has many affiliates, and many partners. But it’s nice to… hear you say that you think we’re doing great. We are… growing at a fast rate; the organization was founded in 2014. I think… But you know, we’re not an old organization. And we’re growing at a great rate. And I just want to say first about the Trump ordeal, the Trumpist ordeal is that I feel lucky that I joined World Beyond War. Only about three years ago, I joined by going to a conference just like the one where you and I, Metta, you and I met in Toronto, where I think you are now — that was a wonderful conference, September 2018. That was my one-year anniversary, in September 2017. I just walked into their conference, didn’t know anybody there in Washington, DC. And said, I want to get involved. I want to help. And luckily, I’m a web developer. So to answer your question, what I do is I’m a web developer. That’s what I do for a living — I am the technology director for World Beyond War. I’m very gratified to have spent the Trump years not just bemoaning how horrible everything is, but… working on what I think is the most important activist cause in the world, which is ending war. And I certainly consider Trump to be the prototypical warmonger. The idea that he’s antiwar, I consider it laughable. He started a war in Iran. He’s escalated the war in Venezuela. He’s created a new war on our Mexican border, and he’s created a civil war right here in the USA. So… I am very agitated about what we saw yesterday, I did watch, you know, I work from home as a software developer, so that means I… have my TV on way too much. So, I watched all of it. You know, you said you tuned in later, maybe I’d be feeling better today, if I tuned in later. But it was just absolutely shocking to see. You know, the first thing that I’m appalled by is that the DC police who beat heads when it’s BLM, when it’s Black Lives Matter, who react to black people protesting with tear gas and sticks… just get these white supremacists into the Capitol. It’s shocking everybody I know.

Metta Spencer

I heard some of the pundits, late night people saying that they suspected that there was some sort of inside support for it, because apparently there were police officers or somebody in charge, opening the barricades allowing in and… I saw one guy… taking a selfie with this officer, as if, you know, they’re buddies, you know, and that this kind of cooperation occurred rather than a proper defense of the Capitol? I don’t know. I don’t know enough about it. Did you see enough to give you the idea that maybe they’re… I read even this morning that that this event had been planned… by the Proud Boys or something for months? Maybe other groups as well? I don’t know. But… this had been planned. It couldn’t have been a complete surprise. In fact, Trump himself… somebody asked him a while back, do you commit to a peaceful transfer of power? And he said, Well, all depends. So, this is a pretty good indication that he had intentions to support something of this kind. So, I don’t know what can be done. What do you think, given the first one?

Marc Eliot Stein

Oh, I agree with what you said there. I also saw the video of the DC police simply letting … the rioters enter the Capitol… building, you know, I’m not talking about the capital city, the Capitol building, let letting them actually end. I also saw what you saw, the picture of a cop taking a selfie… with one of these people. And… you said this was this was planned by Proud Boys. I believe this was planned by the Trump administration, because… I lived in DC, I lived in Virginia for a while I know DC very well. And… at 12 o’clock in the Ellipse, which is just across the park, a direct path from the Capitol … it was completely known… they were certifying the electoral results. It was a very key event in the capital. So, they interrupted the certifying of the election [in the joint session of Congress]. And, you know, basically, when the Trump event ended, it was simply a matter of walking across the Mall. The Mall is this long rectangular park in Washington DC, walking from one side of the park to the end of the park, which is the capital. So, it was it was very… the risk that there would be a riot at the Capitol was completely known to everybody, and yet there was no preparation.

Metta Spencer

Okay, so would Trump himself have been… orchestrating it? I mean, that is saying more than I had, I know that everything indicated that he was encouraging it, but to actually have been engaged in, you know, creating a space for them to meet in and… then giving the order that the police should let them in. Was there is there any reason to believe that there was an actual directive supporting this? I mean, I think maybe we don’t know yet. But have you heard anybody say that… could have been the case?

Marc Eliot Stein

I don’t think — electoral results, the whole context here is, is that Trump is is going to lose office and be subject to criminal prosecution. And he’s doing everything he can to, you know, to subvert the transition of power. So, the key event was that there was this certification going on in a joint session of Congress, which is very rare, when the Senate and the House are both gathered together. This is what was happening. Trump planned an event very close to this at the Ellipse in the park. So yes, I don’t think there was a directive. I think there was a setup… by putting this big event so close to the Capitol, it was clearly being… orchestrated, that there would be some kind of riot. I do not think … anybody anticipated that the DC police would let the rioters right into the Capitol. I don’t think anybody could have expected that. That was inexplicable. But you know, I also, I’m, I don’t want to focus just on yesterday, because I want to get back to the question, you’re asking what can be done — I mean, I have been seeing that Trump ordeal… through the lens of fascism. That’s how I view this. And I also understand, Metta, you are… a sociologist and a peace scientist, and you may have your own framework for understanding what’s going on. Many — you know, some people think Trump is… just a dumb, dumb, racist? I don’t think so.

Metta Spencer

I think he is a genius at what he does —

Marc Eliot Stein

— a large white supremacist. But, you know, I think… the way we interpret what happened yesterday probably has to do with how we interpret the last four years and maybe the last 200 years. So, there’s so much to say, I don’t even know where to begin.

Metta Spencer

You know, here’s my dilemma. And not so much a personal dilemma, because, in fact, I don’t know, and I have no contact with any Trump supporters at all. Living in Canada, and especially living in isolation, I don’t go out much because of COVID. I don’t have any reason to meet people except my own network anyway. So, I literally do not know a single human being who supports Trump, and it’s completely unfathomable to me. So, my speculation is… in a way all hypothetical. But I do have a sense of what it’s about that I think differs from the typical analysis. And that is, and one of the reasons I’m pretty confident of my judgment on this, although it was [not] my predisposition to believe this because I’m kind of an anti-Marxist… Marxists are very, very oriented… toward class analysis, explanation of things in terms of social class-struggle. And so maybe that’s my bent, but what the exit polls for the November election indicate to me is that and I spent some time looking at them. The usual demographics that you would expect to explain these variations in voting results have very little effect, if almost negligible, that is particularly education and income, which are the big drivers of, of social class and social activities, mostly. And it turns out that income is not related to support for vote for Trump, according to the exit polls, except when you get to above $100,000 a year. For people who earn that much… They are the ones who support Trump. So, it’s not… the usual explanation is that it’s poor disadvantaged people who’ve been shut out of the labor market by globalization and they live in the rust belt, or they live in Appalachia or… they’re underprivileged, and… it is poor people supporting Trump. Well, no, it’s not. The people who supported Trump, if anything, had a higher income, slightly higher on average, but the real break, the noticeable difference occurs only among people who are quite prosperous, and they are more likely to support Trump than poor people.

Marc Eliot Stein

Okay.

Metta Spencer

On the other hand, you’d say that education, mostly it’s a matter of under-educated people, believing Fox News or something. And I don’t think that either, because it looks like education in the exit polls didn’t make much difference, except among people with postgraduate education, master’s or professional degrees, that kind of thing. And those people were much more pro-Biden. So, you see professional people, who presumably would be the people with good incomes, but it’s they go in opposite directions — income, if anything richer people vote for… Trump, but education, if anything, uneducated people vote for Trump, and those two just cut, you know, where do you find uneducated millionaires? Well… not even really education that… varies particularly, it’s only among the most, what they call elite, you know, people with professional expertise, training, that kind of thing that you see any variation by education, so I think it’s not social class. Now, what is it then? Well, the results that I have seen from people who actually spend time with these ruffians, these neo-Nazis and so on, are saying that it’s primarily a sense of the… feeling that their dignity is being compromised, that they should… have a higher social status than all these immigrants, and… Muslims and all these people… so it’s a competition… for status as opposed to money. And… therefore, what is the solution? Well, the solution — if it really is a matter of feeling offended, because you’re… not given proper deference and proper politeness and, and prestige, and so on, the answer would be, just go give them more prestige, be nicer to them, show that you really appreciate them? Well, that’s what Trump did yesterday. He said, “We love you” to these guys. Yeah. And that’s interesting, because I don’t love them. And I can’t disguise the fact that I have real contempt for these people. So, in a sense, yes, it’s elites looking down on them. And yet… it’s not. What can you do about it? How can you pretend otherwise? I mean, can you try to make up to these people by going and saying, you know, come to dinner at my house, I think you’re such a good company, I want to invite you over. You see what I mean? Well,

Marc Eliot Stein

yeah, I have so much to say… First, I want to say that I… do know many, many Trump supporters. And there are several reasons. One is that I am into social media. As you know, I I’ve been very involved with World Beyond War’s social media, and I also do my own social media. And I do consider that social media is a serious place for discussion of these topics. So, I interact with Trump supporters, not jerks… not … ruffians. I do. I do want to turn that around. I hope… us peace activists are ruffians sometimes in the good sense, but… I believe that all people are good. I am very much a believer in that everybody is good, but when we are stupid or when we are ignorant, we make mistakes and when we are poorly led, we make mistakes. So and by the way… right before talking to you, I’d been talking to a friend of mine in Indiana, Columbus, Indiana… because he told me he voted for Trump. And I’ve been… berating him for it and trying to ask him, how does it feel?… because I know this, this friend of mine, and maybe he’s even watching, he knows, because I was just arguing with him. You know, he voted for Trump. And I said, do you feel ashamed? Now that you see what’s happening … in the Capitol? Do you feel ashamed? And what — By the way, what I find for many of these… types of people, is that they are dealing with what’s going on right now by shutting it out. This… particular friend of mine… doesn’t watch the news anymore… shutting it out, simply being in denial… of how odious and murderous and evil your government is — is a way of dealing with it. I want to say —

Metta Spencer

during about yesterday, what was his answer when you asked him, Do you feel ashamed?

Well, this was very funny. His answer was he didn’t know it happened. Do you know that there are a lot of people who only watch Fox News or who only listen to —

Marc Eliot Stein

…Fox…

Well, they have a very, very different way of presenting this stuff. So even — and this particular friend, I believe, doesn’t watch televised news at all. But he is… basically on a no-news diet. And I believe the answer is because “he can’t handle the truth” to quote Jack Nicholson, you know, some people who, a lot of people who… are on the Trump team have gone into a no-news diet, because it’s the only way to… handle the guilt. You know, the fact that they’ve… cast their lot with white supremacists, fascists, that they are on the Nazi side… because… I live in Brooklyn, New York now, but I grew up in Suffolk County, Long Island, which is only 30 miles from here, but very red, very Republican… It’s a sort of Irish-Italian working-class neighborhood. I’m Jewish myself, but you know, growing up there has led me to have many other friends who are Trump supporters. And… the county, I’m from Suffolk County, voted for Trump, and what people don’t know about New York is that we have a lot we have a lot of red as well as blue districts here. So, I do believe that the reason we are in this disaster is… that the news sources that they are watching are polluted by… corporate fascist propaganda. I’m talking about Fox News and Rush Limbaugh Oh, by the way, so you know, some people don’t even know that like the influence of the Rush Limbaugh type talk-radio, Mark Levin, etc. is vast… these voices are very influential.

Metta Spencer

I haven’t even heard them; I don’t think I would watch. I never heard Mark Levin. Have you listened? Well, at some point? And I don’t know, what is it? How can you characterize what —

Marc Eliot Stein:

I consider it my goal to talk to Trumpers. And as an anti-war activist, I consider it my goal to talk to people who believe that war is a positive force in the world, which is unfortunately more people than… you and I… there are more people who think that war helps the world, which I think you and I both know is just such a sad, sad misconception. But I again, I believe people are poorly led… it’s the leadership and it’s the community. It’s the media. So, when, you know, I want to sort of tie it back to what you were talking about class and education. I don’t I don’t think the voters are the problem. The voters in America are not the problem… our media… feeds us to two contradictory narratives: the MSNBC narrative and the Fox News narrative… basically choose one and hate the other… And I think you and I probably are way to the left of MSNBC. So, it’s very sad for people like us that we don’t we don’t even have a channel —

Metta Spencer

 Well, yes, but that, that’s, that’s where I get in trouble. Because my friends say, or people who really, you know, there’s kind of the notion that if they’re people who are hurting because they’re lost, they’ve lost status and they feel under-recognized and under-appreciated in status, then the thing to do is reach out and talk more. I admire people with that point of view, Van Jones on CNN has that point of view, he really is extremely good at talking to people he disagrees with. Okay, I am not, because I really think when they’re telling a lie, I’m gonna call it a lie. I can’t help that. And I… yesterday, I did a talk show with a dear friend who said, I use the word “backward”. And she said, don’t use that word. I guess the logic is, if you use more respectful terminology, you don’t call people backward that’re insulting you, what do you call them? I don’t know. I call them backward. And that’s, you know, that’s the problem. How can I lie enough? To pretend that I respect people that I simply don’t?

Marc Eliot Stein

Great question. I mean, my answer is to dive in and engage with them. You know, I told you the story of my friend in Columbus, Indiana, but I would say I have about 5-6 of these running conversations. And by engaging with them, I think I understand what… So that is my answer. But I also —

Metta Spencer

If you think you understand them, do you really have respect for their point of view? I mean, do you really think they are right, in any sense of the word?

Marc Eliot Stein

Oh, great question. First, I, I would have to say, when I’m engaging with them, I’m working on them. I’m working on each of them. So, I do have respect for the fact that they are willing to talk to me, because anybody who’s… a Trumper, or a white supremacist, who… doesn’t want to examine their deepest beliefs isn’t going to… spend their time talking to me. So now, you know, with that said — I have to point to… the most important word here, which is tribalism. So… a person who’s in the deep South, their heritage is… the heritage of the of the deep south. And, and by the way, another thing I believe, now I know you’re in Canada… I do believe that heritage of the Civil War… is still with us today. And so, if you’re, if your tribal feelings are that Black Lives Matter is evil, and therefore the cops who are busting heads at Black Lives Matter riots must be good — if that’s your tribal… sort of configuration, then you are doomed to have that as a starting point. And the best you can do is, is build up from there. So, I’m thinking about cultural legacies. I mean, you and I are both people, but we come from families that that taught us — I feel lucky that I was born into a progressive… open-minded multicultural family… I feel lucky that I have many different ethnic groups in my family, and that I meet many different types of people in in my world, but people who have more limited exposure and maybe don’t have as much diversity in their lives, I think they default to white, (I’m talking about Americans here) default to white supremacist tribalism, which is what Fox News and Rush Limbaugh are pouring into their heads. And no, I don’t want to overemphasize the importance of media. You know, it’s not like I think, I think media, pushing the white supremacist narrative is the only problem. But if I had to… pick out the single cause of Trump, I would say… Fox News and talk-radio, the single — that’s my opinion, maybe, ah, you but you and I know how powerful it is. I know how influential it is…

Metta Spencer

We believe in freedom of speech, where you and I are both democrats in the lower-case sense of the word… so one of the important things I believe in is is free speech. And if that’s the case, we are giving a blessing to people who want to say lies, who want to distort reality and so on. So I know what do you do about that? I find it a real dilemma. I can’t actually… because as I say, I don’t meet any of these people. If I did, I would … have a difficult time pretending to be respectful. Let’s say that.

Marc Eliot Stein

Well, what if what if we map this back to the fact that you and I are both peace activists? Because the fact is, neither the Republican or the Democratic Party in the United States is aligned with what I believe, and I’m guessing not fully aligned with what you believe? Because the United States has problems that go beyond, you know, what we’re dealing with? So, I feel that… the big answer, and this is why I’m a peace activist, the big answer is to fix our most fundamental problems. And that involves dealing with America’s immoral foreign policy, and our fossil-fuel abuse and our corrupt capitalism. And… the crimes of Wall Street which go unpunished year after year… and trickledown —

Metta Spencer

Are those the things that you talk to when about when you talk to your Trump-loving friends? Do you talk about

Marc Eliot Stein

Yes…

Metta Spencer

and, and foreign policy and militarism and so on? And how far do you get with that? I mean, you know, to be honest, there was a time when, when Hillary and Trump were debating, and… I thought, I’m just not going to vote, because I can’t vote for either. Well, I didn’t, thank goodness, I I realized that not voting for her was in effect voting for him… and because I thought about what he would do to the Supreme Court, etc. And then, but I didn’t really feel that it was going to be any move toward peace, either way. Because, you know, the Democrats are just as tough on that as anybody, I guess.

Marc Eliot Stein

Well… can we can we take a step back and think more idealistically about the fact that if we were to manage to end war, and I know… that’s a far cry from where we are, that maybe by resolving… the root causes of the misery in our society, and the guilt in our society and the trauma and the… fear? You know, how much fear is caused by… fear of foreigners, fear of invasion, fear of war… we know how many billions of dollars we spend on weapons, that’s how afraid we are — if we can address the root causes? You know, I… actually believe… that the human race is, is changing at a fast rate. And, you know, I know some peace activists are like, oh, back off this… cosmic stuff. But… sometimes I can sound like Marianne Williamson, who I actually think is quite brilliant. I don’t know if you know her, who she is –.

Metta Spencer

I know… I don’t really know her work much. But I know, she’s kind of… pie in the sky sort.

Marc Eliot Stein

But, I come from a pie-in-the-sky background too you know, I studied philosophy in college, and my intro to peace activism didn’t come from being on the streets, it came from reading books, you know, so… I actually think it is our project, to fix our biggest problems and our biggest problems are war… racism, violence, greed, and to not… shrink away from fixing our big problems. And then the types of people Van Jones, they’re talking about… not living these lives of fear and trauma and self-hatred. I mean, it’s my belief that war generates trauma and fear that echoes and reverberates in our life. I certainly wouldn’t disagree with you… only by solving our most fundamental problems, can we have better politicians and better governments!

Metta Spencer

… I certainly agree with you, but I would have a little bit of different angle on it because I think… war is not the only threat to humankind and human survival. And we’ve got global warming, as you know, we have the possibility of famine, we have pandemics… we have cyber risks. Everything from… Chernobyl… to having your government offices hacked and all of your secret plans revealed. And, and our electric grid may be blown up if they want to. So there’s everything… all of those things. And I see them as something that we can handle best, not separately, but all together as a system, because I think they’re all interdependent causally. And probably the linchpin of the whole thing is militarism. Because it isn’t just the fear that people have as a result of war or the anticipation of war, but also the effects of investing in and maintaining a … huge arsenal of weapons and arms, armed forces, and all of that, that… misdirects, our funds and our energies away from the solutions that we need to give… into really bad, bad.

Marc Eliot Stein

well, I would also add the more practical fear of the many people who are part of the military-industrial complex of losing their livelihoods. Unfortunately, the military-industrial complex is a big, big part of our economy. And that’s no small fear. So sadly, by putting weapons manufacturing at the core of our economy, as we have, along with fossil-fuel abuse, we make it the fact that solving our biggest problem would actually be economically disadvantageous. So… the gun to our head is the military-industrial complex — and work… Eisenhower said it, you know, we’re gonna destroy ourselves with war profiteering and look at the damage we do overseas… I do recognize the privilege I have of sitting here in a comfortable apartment in Brooklyn, when my country is waging war in Yemen… and supporting… Netanyahu in Gaza… the various things we’ve done in Latin America, that we’re still doing in Venezuela… this is, again, why I feel like we have a chance to fix this. You know… I’m not an antiwar activist, just for the sake of doing it, I believe we’re going to end war, we have to end war, either we end war or we die, you know, or our planet disappears.

Metta Spencer

Well, yes. And —

Marc Eliot Stein

Go ahead. I just wonder how you react to something like that?

Metta Spencer

Oh, absolutely. I think we’re on the same page completely. The only thing that I’m now focusing more on is the notion that just telling people to stop investing in military, if –it’s not enough, because… not only investors would lose profits (and… I believe in telling them… take your money and put it someplace else) but also the jobs would be lost. And, you know, here in Canada, we are funding… an industry that’s producing armored personnel carrier vehicles on a big scale for sale to Saudi Arabia. And the government has not wanted to stop doing that, although the public sees this as a shameful thing to do. But the government continues, because they will have a huge number of jobs… suddenly lost if they stopped it. So I think that as peace workers, we have to not only say stop doing this, but rather show where we should put the energies and jobs… building, green infrastructure building, and don’t use the word green, because that turns people off sometimes, but at building, creating job… that are good… that we need to have solutions to, that would be contributing a real good answers to things, Say, Stop this, but also create this, and we have to be doing the research on what needs to be done and how to actually take the same people who are working in this particular area, who are going to lose their job and say, “Now, when we shut this down, we’re building a plant that’s going to do this instead. “And you’re all going to be hired and here’s what your jobs are going to be, that kind of closeness of showing the linkage needs to be done more, I think then we’ve been doing it.

Marc Eliot Stein

Well, there’s a, there’s a three-word phrase for that: Green New Deal. And I’m very much behind it… I’m concerned that you said the word green is… I use the word green a lot —

Metta Spencer

… find everything, but I’m, belong to everything. But at the same time, if what you’re saying is, we got to be able to speak with Trumpists and right-wing people in a way that they can hear, then there’s the dilemma. If you use the word green, that’s the end of it, they don’t want to hear it. But if you use jobs, or you know, health care, or education, or improving their highways and bridges, so they’re safe, etc., then they may be able to hear it. But there’s certain words like green, that may, in fact, be counterproductive for… I can’t talk to these people. You say you do? Well, I don’t talk to them.

Marc Eliot Stein

Well, you know, maybe some of them will listen to… your podcasts and your videos… and hear you, even though you don’t — because I want you to talk to them. But I want to say that when I talk to them, I do a lot of the talking… I feel sorry for some of my friends because… I don’t… take a take a tentative stand on these issues. If somebody says they think the environmental movement is wrong about anything, they will have to listen to me explain why they are stupid. And you know, when I say I talk to Trumpers, I don’t coddle them. I talk… reality to them. And… I do think that the environmental movement, the green movement is a winner right now. We are we are winning with that one. And we need to lead with that. In fact, one of the one of the goals of the peace movement, I think right now is to better explain how the military is the biggest offender in the world of environmental —

Metta Spencer

Well, except that, as I understand, if I look at the green New Deal documents, they don’t talk about militarism. That’s the one thing that they actually don’t mention that. Yeah, take money out of the military and put it here.

Marc Eliot Stein

Yes, no, I know… I also sometimes have to argue with people who might consider themselves… further on the spectrum, from… conventional politics than me because some people don’t even like Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and the Squad. And you know, what I consider to be… and Bernie Sanders, you know, our only good politicians, in my opinion, these are our only good politicians. But even these politicians — simply because they are officeholders, and they are in the Democratic Party — they’re certainly not mainstream in the Democratic Party. But you know, many people… who are progressive will reject even Bernie Sanders or Alexandria Ocasio Cortez. So, the word “green” will cause problems on both sides, but we just have to keep persisting… I don’t take it from them… they will hear me explain why they’re wrong.

Metta Spencer

You know, I deal with it. But go back to my original dilemma. If you’re going to explain to them why they’re wrong… does that work? I mean, arguing with people, I don’t think often works. I’ve rarely seen anybody say, “Oh, yes, you’ve just convinced me that I’ve been wrong all my life.”

Marc Eliot Stein

Yeah, I know what you mean. You know, maybe you can the question between us here is, do we solve the problem of fascism or Trumpism by addressing the voters or by addressing… the ringleaders? And I actually, again, I think the voters are… I don’t think the voters are the problem. I think the problem is the crap that we that we shovel out to voters, you know, give them give them these choices. You know,

Metta Spencer

What are you gonna do to stop it? I have no idea how, how to stymie it. I don’t even listen to Fox News. I don’t know. But any of those right wings, you know, theorists if you dignify them… with that term… they’ve got a right to speak. I believe in freedom of speech.

Marc Eliot Stein

Oh, yeah. But I believe… the answer is we have to fix our problems… if we don’t end war, we will never have a good government. That’s what I believe. I believe war and democracy; the institutions of war and democracy are incompatible. How can we possibly call ourselves a democracy when we’re inflicting violence or profiting on inflicting violence in other countries, and, you know, the world has not been connected for that long — 100 years ago, it was possible for a person in the United States or in Canada, to not realize the effects that militarism is having around the world. We don’t have that problem anymore. Now we know… how guilty we are. So again, this is why I’m an anti-war activist. This is why I don’t you know, I have some friends, by the way, and I respect them, who spend a lot of time calling people for elections… vote for Joe Biden vote for… this Congressman. I don’t spend any time on electioneering. I spend time on anti-war activism, because the election is… downstream from the problem. The problem is more fossil fuels, greed, capitalism… Does that kind of answer your question? I mean… the questions you’re asking can’t be answered easily, of course. But that’s how I would do —

Metta Spencer

well, you’re absolutely an ally, I am delighted to have this conversation with you. And our hearts are exactly in the same place. Whether… our operational priorities are how you schedule your day, and where you’re going to write checks to cover this or that fund. Whether you’re covering the same things that I’m — I don’t know, but we are, they’re certainly compatible… the organizations that you support, and the ones that I support are certainly compatible. And working in the same direction? I think… there’s value in really noting that… people who are working on pandemics or people who are working on… food security… people who are working to try to solve cyber risks, those are people who are working on the same system. Yes, that we’re all working against. We’re all trying to solve the same set of problems that are interrelated. And I think we ought to know each other a little better and, and be in touch and if anything, find ways of collaborating more, you know, I’d like to, I do have good contacts in the World Beyond War. I’d like to have more. I mean, you know, let’s find ways of helping each other. So, terrific.

Marc Eliot Stein

Let’s do this. I’d love to have you on the World Beyond War podcast, which I host I do one episode every month. So, let’s, let’s do more of this. I mean… we’re both putting out messages here. So, let’s, and I agree, we are allies, and I’m glad to know you.

Metta Spencer

Great. Good to make a new friend. Thank you so much, Mark… Take care.

T182. The McIntyre Powder Project

T182. The McIntyre Powder Project

 

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number: 182
Panelists: Janice Martell, Dr. Richard Denton, and Dr. Keith Meloff
Host: Metta Spencer

Date Aired: 9 February 2021
Date Transcribed: 18 February 2021
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits: David Millar

Metta Spencer

Hi, I’m Metta Spencer. And we’ve been talking quite a bit lately about uranium mining. Because one of our main concerns project save the world is about radioactive contamination. So of course, we talk, there’s a lot of radioactive contamination in Canada, I would say, especially in Ontario, because we depend so much on nuclear power. But and so I’ve had a lot of friends who’ve been here talking about the dangers of nuclear waste and problems about mining. Now, I think we need to go a little bit beyond that, because there are other kinds of issues involved in mining as well. health issues, and I would say even they involve human rights issues, because public health and human rights converge at a certain point when you get people being forced to take measures that may not be for their own health, but for other reasons. So, I’ve become acquainted with a lady who is very concerned about an issue called McIntyre pot powder. Her name is Janice Martel,

Nice to join you, Metta. Thank you so much for having me here.

Metta Spencer

It’s wonderful to see you. And I’ve also invited a couple of physicians who are knowledgeable about these matters. Dr. Richard Denton is a dear friend of mine who works quite a lot on the public health safety of mining and exposure to radiation. And he and Janice both live in Sudbury now. So, they’re just about to get acquainted. And Dr. Keith Meloff is a physician who has done work on precisely the health issues that Janice is so concerned about.

Richard Denton / Keith Meloff

Okay, good.

Metta Spencer

I’d like to start off by asking Janice Martell to tell us her story. She’s the founder of the McIntyre Powder project. And tell me about it.

Janice Martell

Well, the McIntyre powder project is a bit of an Erin Brockovich type of project. Basically, my father, his name is Jim Hobbs. He was an underground miner in Elliott Lake Ontario and in the uranium mines. He also worked in the Sudbury area mines. But when he went to Elliot lake in 78, he started underground there and had to breathe in a finely ground aluminum-oxide dust called McIntyre powder. It was named after the McIntyre mine in Timmins, Schumacher, Ontario, developed there in the late 1930s. And by the early 1940s, it was being used in all of the gold mines in the Timmins area, sort of sequentially, and it was introduced into uranium mines in the late 50s and early 60s. And the McIntyre powder was theorized to prevent silicosis, so that the theory was that if you inhale this into your lungs, it would affect the solubility, the aluminum particles would engulf the crystalline silica, which is very sharp-edged pieces of, of silica that happen when you — they’re contained in the ore bodies high in amounts in uranium and gold mining. And when you break apart that rock in mining, this crystalline silica — they, the miners are inhaling this dust. And it can cause scarring in the lungs and make the lungs less flexible so that you can’t breathe. This is silicosis, and the rates of silicosis are really high in, particularly in the in the Porcupine mining camps, around Timmins, and mining executives there came up with this theory, in conjunction actually with the Banting Institute in in Toronto, [it] had some involvement in in trying to solve this silicosis issue. And they started applying miners with it —

Metta Spencer

Excuse me, but what would be the symptoms of silicosis? Anyway, in other words, we were going to pre- it prevented disease but I don’t know what that disease would have looked like.

Janice Martell

So, it like I say, you’re breathing in these this crystalline silica molecule molecules, it causes scarring in the lungs, so it makes the lungs less elastic so that it’s harder and harder to breathe. People with silicosis, they have you know, sort of caved in chests because they have a hard time getting their breath. They can have a very blue appearance or you know…. It leads to death and in in Elliott Lake where the crystalline silica content is that much higher in the in the mines, probably close to double what it is in the gold mines. You had miners dying in the late 1960s, early, early 1970s, for mines that just opened in the 1950s. And usually silicosis has a, you know, a 20, 20+ year course before it would lead to death, but they were dying in droves in the what fraction of the of the miners whatever, contract that disease. It’s been a while since I looked at those stats. There was a survey done in in the late 1920s, I believe, by the one of the Interior ministries, to look into it, the Sudbury rates were quite a bit lower because their silica content in the rock was quite a bit lower. And Dr. Meloff is showing you a canister of McIntyre powder, aluminum dust. So, they would grind up this aluminum dust put it into these canisters. And for miners before they went underground, on shift, they would have a formula for the room content. So, it was one gram per 1000 cubic feet of room content. And they would so they would put so many canisters in a compressed airline, they would puncture them and send out this blast of aluminum dust that as miners are changing their clothes to go underground, getting into their work clothes, they would be inhaling this for generally around 10 minutes, or so sometimes a little bit more, but usually around that that amount of time, before they went underground. So, it was a it was a forced… there was no informed consent. They certainly didn’t know. You know, they were just told to breathe deep This is gonna prevent silicosis — there was no, you know, here’s the risks, here’s the benefits. And they really didn’t know. The documentation that I looked at. said it would take at least 15 years before they even know if it had any effect on silicosis. They had no control group for this. It was just a forced human experimentation, public health, industrial health experiment that was conducted from officially from 1943 until 1979. It was a Fifth Estate episode, in a Toronto Star, you know, copro- investigation that really shut that down in, in September 1979.

Richard Denton

They, they take an elevator down the shaft, a stunning depth, actually. And before in the elevator, they blew in this aluminum oxide dust, it was like a cloud of smoke that they were inhaling before they went down the cage all the way into the mine. So, this was a procedure where they actually took numerous breaths of this very fine black or gray powder, depending on the composition at the time, into their lungs.

Janice Martell

Right before they went underground… yeah, it was done before they got into the shaft but in the mine dry or in Quirke Lake where my dad mined where my dad worked, they actually had a like a tunnel between where they, you know, got out of their street clothes and stuff and into their work clothes and they had to sit in that tunnel. And there was no way of going around it, you got locked in there. So, it was basically forcible confinement and forced aluminum dust inhalation as a condition of employment. So, if they, you couldn’t avoid it, you would get suspended if, or threatened with your job loss if you know if you fail to do it, so. So, my dad ended up with Parkinson’s 10 years after the mines closed, and my, and I knew nothing about McIntyre Powder. He didn’t talk about it at the time. I was 11 and 12 at the, at the time that he got it. So you know, I’m a kid I don’t, you know, it’s not something that he would talk to me about anyways. But when I found out about it 10 years after he was diagnosed with Parkinson’s. I wanted to know more. So, I started doing research on it. And initially there was there was basically there was two references to McIntyre powder on the internet, when I first looked into it, and one was a study that was done with by Sandra Rifat and colleagues out of the University of Toronto from a 1990 study where she actually compared, she did a mental, mini-mental status, examination. So, the kinds of tests that you would give to determine if there was any kind of dementia, she gave those to miners who had received the aluminum dust and miners who did not. And there was a statistically significantly fact for cognitive impairment in the miners who got the aluminum dust and the longer that they had been exposed to it the worse that that cognitive impairment was so it was like a dose-response relationship.

Metta Spencer

Did it look like dementia or did it just have other quality psychological qualities?

Janice Martell

It was it was a cognitive deficit. So, they didn’t, they struggled more with cognitive functioning. That’s how that’s what that study came out with. So, and the only other reference on the Internet at that time when I looked at it in 2011, was the mining Hall of Fame and it had the general manager from McIntyre Porcupine mines R. J. Ennis and you know, talked about how he cured silicosis in miners, cured that disease by introducing the aluminum dust. So, it was a real vacuum of information out there. I spoke to somebody at the United Steelworkers who had worked in Elliott Lake, and he said, you need to talk to you need to Google ‘McIntyre Research Foundation’. And when I did that there was a hit at the Ontario archives. So, I went to the archives of Ontario and did research there. I went through all of the McIntyre Research Foundation’s archival funds. And then from there started, you know, talking to miners and creating a voluntary registry to see what kind of health issues there were. And I have 545 on my volunteer registry, and I think it’s 53 of them have Parkinson’s. So that it led to that kind of sort of basic mobilizing and mapping of what kinds of health issues are there led to further study. And in 2020, we, the Occupational Cancer Research Center, just published, released their findings of a study that they did, that compared the neurological disease rates in miners who did not get the aluminum dust miners who did get the aluminum dust, and then the general population of Ontario, and it found a statistically significantly higher rate of Parkinson’s in the miners who got McIntyre powder. So, they started to compensate those miners, including my dad.

Metta Spencer

Well did it help with the silicosis in the long run?

Janice Martell

No. There was a Western Australian study, this was this spread out, the use in several countries, not just in mining, actually, in the United States. It was used in dozens and dozens of silica-dust producing factories. But the it was used in the Western Australia gold mines and a study in 2013 found that it had no impact on silicosis rates at all. And there were, that study found that there may be higher incidence of cardiovascular issues. So sudden death by cardiovascular in the miners who got it and potentially higher risk of Alzheimer’s. That’s what that study.

Richard Denton

It is the case… I was a neurologist that served in the underserviced area program of the Ministry of Health for a long time, the better part of 30 years. So, I was a traveling neurologist or an itinerant neurologist based principally in Timmins. But I actually would see patients literally all-over northern Ontario, and even as far north, northwest to Sioux Sainte Marie and Thunder Bay, and also by telemedicine either based in Timmins, which was the beginning actually of telemedicine to the north. And it had a co-location was with Sunnybrook Hospital in Toronto. So those were those were the two actual sites for telemedicine. So, I consulted with people, even as far as the James Bay and the western shore, James Bay, Moose Factory and so on that I saw, a lot of people, underground miners who are exposed to the aluminum oxide and who also had early onset of dementia and other neurological disorders including Parkinson’s and Parkinson-related illnesses. In other words, Parkinson lookalikes. They weren’t Parkinson’s, but they were Parkinson-like diseases.

Metta Spencer

To ask a dumb question, because I did Google this. And one of the things they talked about was Parkinson’s disease, and Parkinson-ism. Those are two different things.

Keith Meloff

Yeah, that’s a very good question. But and in fact, it’s still in evolution because there’s an ever-increasing number of Parkinsonisms, where we are understanding the pathology is not the same as in, if you will, standard Parkinson’s disease. In any event, it is also the case and I would like to make this brief but it is the case that I collaborated because I worked in pharmaceuticals as well. Aluminum can be chelated as lead can be – copper – you can actually suck it out of the blood with medication.

Metta Spencer

I’ve heard it as some sort of offbeat treatment for some diseases, right?

Keith Meloff

But it’s actually true.

Metta Spencer

I never heard it explained what is chelation?

Keith Meloff

So what it is, is these molecules, metal molecules, iron, aluminum, copper, manganese, lead, they can be che-, there are agents that will suck them out of the blood. The lead is a toxin, ubiquitous toxin, mercury is another, some of them are harder to — so there are actual chemicals that have been around for a long time like pharmaceutical pharmaceuticals that have been around for a very long time, British anti-Lewisite, so on… And there’s one in particular that draws out iron and aluminum and it’s called Desferrioxamine and why is this important? Because there is a population of people who get the disease called thalassemia, you may or may not have heard of thalassemia, it’s actually fairly common, even in Timmins, because it is a disease that’s hereditary that afflicts people from the Mediterranean area, like Italy and Greece and so on. And there were a lot of Italian miners who had this. They would have —

Metta Spencer

I know Nancy Olivieri, who goes to Sri Lanka, I believe, well, I worked with her, with –maybe the Sri Lankans have a high incidence of it, or,

Richard Denton

Actually, we had this molecule — Ciba Geigy. It’s a Swiss company that’s now called Novartis, it’s a colossal Swiss pharma company. They made two key leaders Desferrioxamine which is given by injection, and Desferrel which is oral, and Nancy worked on a drug called Desferrel for thalassemia is a big controversy about that which I don’t want to get into. Fact of the matter is that drug is approved for oral treatment for iron overload, iron overload, specifically for thalassemia, (which is a disease we don’t need to talk about) — but it also sucks out aluminum from the blood. And Dr. McLachlan, Dr. Donald Crapper McLachlan, at the University of Toronto was very, very focused on aluminum toxicity. He was convinced that aluminum was a major contributor to Alzheimer’s disease. He was convinced of it. And he had the brains of miners that were donated to his laboratory in Toronto. Forever. I have tried in vain to find out where those brains are. No one seems to know. It is the case that they likely perished because the freezer that contained those brains broke down in a power shortage at the Tanz Institute [Centre for Research in Neurodegenerative Disease] at College Street and University Avenue in Toronto, and have been forever lost. But I don’t know. And I’ve actually contacted people who do know, and the people who do know, don’t know where those brains have gone, which is very unfortunate. It’s America launched.

Metta Spencer

Are you saying that because they’re lost, nobody really knows whether Alzheimer’s or is caused by affected by aluminum?

Keith Meloff

I mean, well, it’s complicated because we, clinically these patients clinically had Alzheimer’s. And that is unequivocal. Dr. McLachlan showed us an experiment which Janice just alluded to, that Desferrioxamine slowed the progression of patients who were exposed to aluminum. It slowed their progression of dementia compared to a group of patients who’ve got a sham injection of drug. And that was published in The Lancet several years ago. And it’s an interesting publication. It’s not a perfect publication, but it’s a very suggestive publication. That Desferrioxamine actually might be useful in treating miners who are exposed to aluminum. It’s not the story is not easy, and he was part of a group scientists, one in Kentucky, who really believed that aluminum was toxic to the brain. And we have aluminum, not just for our mines, but we bake in aluminum, aluminum foil, we have underarm deodorants that are largely aluminum based. So, there’s other environmental toxicities you know, that we’re susceptible to from aluminum in the environment, it’s ubiquitous in our environment, because we eat with it all the time. A lot of food is made in aluminum. Cooking. So —

Janice Martell

if I can interject a bit, the one of the, one of the primary things that differentiates, I think with McIntyre powder is the fine ground aspect of it that it’s in the fine particulate and ultra-fine particulate size. So, we are wondering, beyond the aluminum if the, if the particle size, particulate size itself is causing problems. So, Andrew Zarnke, my, my colleague, at the occupational health clinics for Ontario workers, he’s doing studies on, that, he analyzed canisters of McIntyre powder, and found that it you know, it was in this extremely fine particulate size — in the, you know, things like air pollution where you have this fine, this beyond ultra-fine and fine and fine particulate — they have higher issues of cardiovascular disease and things like that. So those nanoparticles in and of themselves have been found throughout the body in the brain. And one of the concerns that we’re looking at is, is that particulate size itself is that the issue, the formulation of McIntyre powder, was changed in 1956. To make it even more fine. They wanted to, they wanted it to get down to the deepest recesses of the lung. And the Occupational Cancer Research Center study that was published last year showed that was released last year, showed that any mine worker who had the formulation post-1956 had an even higher risk of Parkinson’s. So, it does tend to make us think along those lines, that’s something that we need to investigate a little bit further, with respect to, you know, not just the fact that it was aluminum, but the way the manner in which it was distributed, you know, right before they went underground. I mean, when you are an underground miner, you are exposed to all kinds of, you know, silica, silica dust, diesel exhaust, there’s different kinds of toxins that you are — and some of them are carcinogenic: diesel exhaust… silica dust… arsenic — there’s things that you can be exposed to, in that environment. And right before you go underground to do that, your lungs are being overwhelmed by this, you know, it’s not like you’re, you know, the WSIB time-weighted in over an eight-hour shift. Well, that’s not how it was delivered, you had this extreme dose, right before you go on underground and overwhelmed the lungs’ systems, their natural ability to clear out, clear out dust particles. And so, you have this compromised lung and you’re in there with no ventilation because the specific instructions from the McIntyre Research Foundation, which were the mining industry executives, and some industry doctors, from this foundation, their specific instructions were that you were to have no, you know, airflow, so close all the doors, seal them, you know, get rid of any windows, or at least seal them up, and have no ventilation while you’re taking this stuff. So, you’ve compromised your lungs right before you’re now exposing them to all of these other toxins underground. So those are some of the areas of research that we’re wanting to look into further, beyond just the fact that it was aluminum, because there’s no other population in human history that was exposed to aluminum in this way. You know, this finely ground aluminum dust that they were forced to inhale. So, it’s some of the other studies can be you know, can certainly bring up concerns and things that we want to look at. But there’s this also this other aspect of it that that is really we need to study these particular miners, and in it, one of the human rights issues for me, apart from the lack of informed consent, and that they were essentially in these gas chambers, is that there was no follow up. Once they you know, once they just discontinued it, it was like, Oh, well — you started this human experiment and they — inefficient, they need to follow up with these miners and find out what happened to them? And that’s what I set out to do. And that’s what’s —

Metta Spencer

Because they didn’t. And they should have done. Who should have done that? That’s follow-up research. What should have happened? Well, maybe the whole thing shouldn’t have even taken place in the first place. But, you know, who should have done the kind of work you’re doing, Janice?

Janice Martell

Well, I mean, this was a public health experiment, and it should have been a public health follow up. You know, the government was aware that this was happening. And, you know, they gave their tacit approval. And when the Food and Drug legislation came in, in the late 40s, the research that I looked at is that the McIntyre Research Foundation met with the officials in Ottawa, and they basically said, Well, you know, this is, you know, you’re not giving this to the general public… our inspectors aren’t gonna be very interested in you. So, carry on. So, there was a regulatory oversight that was abysmal. They just dropped the ball and nobody followed up. And it was really when… the media made a big difference in

Metta Spencer

I would, because of what Dr. Meloff said, I’m wondering if there is a possibility that one could get aluminum poisoning and all of the cognitive, and parkinsonism or the other diseases that might result from aluminum exposure, from things like cooking and aluminum pans, or using deodorants — then your, the research would have to be rather complicated in order to separate out the effects of the aluminum that you was inhaled, as opposed to aluminum from other sources. Wouldn’t that complicate the research project? Or have you thought of that yourself in in trying to do this kind of follow up study, Janice?

Janice Martell

Well, I mean, I’m, I’m a lay person, right. So, I’m, I’m a layperson and an advocate, so I’m just kind of trying to gather the information and be a resource around it. But I mean, the …JM aluminum toxicity is unquestionable, it’s neurotoxic. But how the mechanisms, you know how that might affect something like Alzheimer’s or dementia. Dr. Denton has his hand up you? Yeah, jump in there. Go ahead, please.

Richard Denton

I just want to make a couple of points. One, I’m just a country doctor. But as a country, doctor, you have a lot of patients, and you see clusters of disease occurring. And you wonder why. And rarely, though, do we actually then try to find out? What is the case? You know, I can think of my colleague, Dr. John O’Connor, who saw a cluster of cancers in the Alberta tar sands, and traced that to the toxins that were coming from that industry and basically had to leave town as a result of that —

Metta Spencer

The story there. What’s that about? That people got mad because they felt that you found out something they didn’t want to know.

Janice Martell

You don’t bite the hand that feeds you in an industry town.

Richard Denton

Yeah. So that that’s it, but I again, want to applaud people like Janice, because it’s often the lay people or miners. There is a miner in Kirkland Lake, who traced his lung cancer to radon gas that is a heavier-than-air gas. It therefore concentrates in the mines. It’s radioactive. It’s not only in the uranium mines, but it’s in all the mines. And as you were alluding to, Metta, it was hard to eliminate things like smoking, because a lot of the miners smoked. And so therefore, they said, Wow, well, your lung cancer is due to smoking, but he did not smoke and was able to finally get WCB, the workman’s compensation board to recognize that that as a health hazard. And we now know that radon gas is the second cause of lung cancer. And it’s… compensable and it’s also found in basements of houses. And so, you now can test that. So again, I simply want to applaud people like Janice for doing this research, you would think that it should be as doctors, but often it is not. It’s the lay people. And I think the second point also is that workers are exposed to bad situations, toxins, and are not informed of it. And so, you have the women who applied the radioactive radon to… watch dials, and developed cancer as a result of that. And as again, Janice points out, the workers are not informed. And particularly we see this often with indigenous people. The uranium mines often occur on indigenous land, they are hired to do the work, but they are not told of the risks. So, my points are that we need to be doing a lot more research. We need to, it’s people like Janice, and miners and people who are the workers who are really the heroes for pointing these problems out. And then it is finally up, back to people like Dr. Meloff and scientists who then can do the research to find these problems. But to me, the real heroes are people like Janice, and I just want to make that point, who —

Metta Spencer

I’m glad you

Richard Denton

took the risk of workers in situations of being exposed to toxins, and not knowing about it.

Janice Martell

Thank you. I have to say Dr. Meloff, many of the people that I talk to remember you, they bring up your name. And I when I say that I’ve met you and that, you know, they’re just very grateful because you believed them, you know, and you said yes, this person has Parkinson’s or parkinsonism or whatever. And, you know, when I was thinking about coming on this, this this show and having a conversation about this, and thinking about how it how it really connected with peace. In order to achieve peace when there’s been wrongdoing, you have to acknowledge the wound, you have to acknowledge the wrongdoing and that this was swept under the carpet and people like yourself. Dr. Meloff, you, you were a frontline physician who gave validity to their lived experiences and they you know, 30 and 40 years later, those families remember you. And I just wanted to say that.

Richard Denton

Thank you. You know, it’s interesting that the source of the aluminum that I provided for further study was given to me in 1989 by a woman called Erma Vosdingh, from Virginiatown. So, most people in Toronto have no idea where Virginiatown is. I actually know. It’s, it’s not far from Kirkland. But I mean, this was because her father had complications from the aluminum oxide. So, it’s an absolute irony that I have like a dozen canisters, because she provided me with about a dozen canisters [of] the McIntyre, powder, some of which were a little different in color. So, there were some that were grayish, and some that were blackish. And that I think, is what Janice is talking about that the fine powder may have different particle size. There’s no doubt in my mind. We have other epidemiological evidence of metals causing problems. Lead is the best known I would say. Lead is terrible. Because lead affects not only the brain, it also affects your blood forming, because you get anemia. Children who eat paint chips that are leaded. I don’t know if you’re familiar with this, but it’s a very, this is serious problem is still a problem in North America. And you read about Flint, Michigan, where they have lead in the water, a monumental problem. A pediatrician there was… noticing that children were getting anemia. And it was it was because of lead in the water. I’m so old. I’ve taken care of children with anemia related to lead and brain damage — so that’s how old I am. I actually treated these children who were exposed to lead in Minneapolis. And there’s manganese miners in Chile, they get Parkinson’s disease. And even in the Negev, you may have heard of the Negev, it’s in southern Israel — Bedouins were a migratory… an indigenous population that traveled between Egypt and Jordan and Israel and so forth. They eat, they drink water out of leaded pottery. And there have been cases in, among Bedouins who’ve developed Parkinson’s from the lead. So, this is a really global problem. And the radium, I couldn’t agree more with Richard, I mean… radiation is bad for the brain, it’s bad for your body. It causes malignancies, among many other things. So, this is a monumental, I really think this aluminum powder should be studied in, in animal experiments. To look at the brain after exposure to aluminum oxide,

Metta Spencer

Well, that’s one thing I wanted to ask is we need to move on to talking about the future. I’m wondering, out of all this experience, and experimentation and, and research and tragedy, what has been learned and what needs to be studied further? And what actions are should be taken now? What do we know that we should be doing something about? Probably, maybe Janice and Keith Meloff have different ideas about where to go from here. But I’m always looking for solutions. So what needs to be done, that we should promote as a line of either research or policymaking?

Janice Martell

Certainly what Dr. Malak was talking about with animal experimentation, I think that that is, is something that is being contemplated. The initial review, or the initial assessment of what McIntyre powder is, was necessary to developing something that could be consistent to be able to do those kinds of experiments. So that’s sort of the first step that that Andrew Zarnke, and his colleagues, including Health Canada, had, were part of that review. And, and that would certainly give us some models as to as to what the impacts are, and to be able to study that… there’s a technology… some nano diamond technology where you can attach this tracker to the particles of aluminum, so that when it’s you do the inhalation experiments, you can actually see in the body where it goes. So, can it pass the blood-brain barrier and those kinds of things. So that’s something that is being contemplated. And I think the kind of study that the Occupational Cancer Research Center did for neurological disorders, they could do something similar for the other kinds of health issues that we’re seeing showing up. I mean, respiratory is huge, different cancers, cardiovascular conditions…. One of the things the OCRC study found was they did find higher rates of Alzheimer’s, and higher rates of motor neuron disease in mining in general, not related to McIntyre powder. But compared to the general population and motor neuron disease, that diagnosis, they had some difficulties, because of the number codes that are used in family physician offices versus hospitals, in figuring out, you know, how many of those would be something like ALS, but in general 70% of those diagnostic codes refer to ALS? And I have —

Metta Spencer

Let me unpack that. Are you saying I think I did see reference to this, that ALS itself is one of these motor neuron disease problems, and that it could be could be affected by aluminum or by just any kind of thing in the mining environment? Any mining?

Janice Martell

Yeah. And I, I, I’ve seen some high rates as well around pulp and paper mills. So, I’d be interested in knowing what the common elements were in pulp and paper mill towns in Abitibi. From what I understand, there was an iron ore mine that had I think five, with ALS — in the Kirkland Lake area… So yeah, there’s some, there’s some things, certainly that are beyond my scope. But things that I’d be interested in and on a sort of a public policy issue. I think that there should be a national registry. If you are a worker, I mean, we’ve become a globalized workforce. If you are a worker, you have a right to know everything that is — have a registry, everything that you’ve been exposed to at work, that you and your state, or your legal representatives should be able to have access to that registry, so that they can track and see what are the health outcomes of workers who are exposed to certain things — at some point asbestos was not an issue, right? Because nobody was making the connection. At some point, beryllium wasn’t an issue… Those kinds of toxins and their health effects need to be studied if we’re going to put workers in a situation. And sometimes you don’t know at the time that it could be toxic. And lots of times you did. And I think that we need to have that and push for that. And part of my going into this was… not just to show and find out the answer that I wanted to find out for my dad… was his Parkinson’s related, which I have that answer now… if you can show with this group of workers… this was not an inherent working condition, this was introduced by a powerful mining industry and a government that kowtowed to them. And if you can show what a human rights abuse it was, and how we need to push beyond the way that we deal with workers now? You know, workplaces close down by the time these occupational diseases develop, unions disband. You know, when, you know, when the mining industry in Elliott Lake decommissioned and the mines closed, those locals of the… unions dissolved, because there was no more workplace. We need someone (and it needs to be a national effort) to track what these workers are exposed to. Right now, we’re retroactively doing that at the occupational health clinics for Ontario workers. But it’s… very difficult to do and you have a lot of deceased workers who can’t give you what they were exposed to in their working conditions. So, we kind of look at it as a cluster and try… people who are alive can tell the tales for the people who passed. And the things that I would recommend.

Metta Spencer

Thank you, you obviously have something on your mind.

Richard Denton

Just a couple other points, Metta. I think as Janice has pointed out, to see a toxin develop in people, it’s often 20+ years, to show the cancers and that sort of thing. So that makes doing the research difficult. Number two, I think we need to use what we call the precautionary principle, which is: if you don’t know what it’s going to do, don’t do it. And so, you know, we have seen the Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment, CAPE has launched a ban on the cosmetic use of herbicides and pesticides for lawns, and we know that those are toxins. So that that is something that can be done. And it was interesting that it started in a little community of Hudson, Quebec, just a small community. And now with the help of CAPE it spread across Canada, and the provinces have now restricted that use. So eventually things do change and… come to light. You know, we thought that plastics were inert, that that was not a problem. Now we know that it’s the microplastics that cause problems, it’s now endemic in our lakes in our streams and in the oceans and is affecting all life there. Not only the large plastic that gets into straws, into turtles and things like that, and in the bellies of whales, but is also the microplastics that is now a problem. And as you also said earlier, with cooking… look at Teflon. We think that’s a marvelous agent. It keeps spills… off your clothing. If you don’t have to use a lot of oil in your cooking, it just slips off the pan. But it too is a toxin and a carcinogen. So all of these things are problems. And then the other point I want to make is that it’s not only the miners, but it’s their families. And the mines fill up the lakes with these toxins. And they become the tailings, become the slimes. And they… often have heavy metals, which then can become airborne, and again, get into the food that we eat. Again, Dr. Meloff and I are old enough to remember when it was recommended that we should all be eating liver. Because it was high in iron and —

Metta Spencer

I still eat liver, or I still leave eat liver, what’s the matter with liver I’ve missed? Well,

Richard Denton

It’s been taken off the Canada Food Guide. Back in the day when you and I grew up, we were recommended to eat liver. But now we know that the liver concentrates toxins. And because we feed animals, all these various toxins, you should not be eating too much liver. And you know, you can now get young calves’ liver or baby beef, but you would not be wanting to eat cow’s liver. And again, we don’t recommend eating wild game liver for that very reason. Because again, they are high in toxins. So yes, you should be eating game. Because it’s low in fat. And that tastes good. But you need to be avoiding the organs that concentrate the toxins like livers and kidneys.

Metta Spencer

Well, we started out with a few things to worry about. And now we end the program with a whole lot more things to worry about. This is not cheerful news. I’m sorry. I’d like to end with an upbeat message, but I’m not quite sure what it is. Dr. Meloff can you think of anything cheerful to end with?

Richard Denton

Well, I I agree with Janice, that what would be cheerful for me is to do exactly what she recommends is and that is to have a registry. I mean, the other interesting catchphrase would be class action lawsuit. Because if you actually think about the violation of proper experimental procedures, I mean, all of this work was done in violation of the Helsinki Accords… people who were exposed without informed consent to toxins. And this is I mean, they were there were trials over this, you know, in Nuremberg, I mean, this evolved into the Helsinki Accords, and international standards for doing clinical research. And I can tell you, there are numerous examples in history of violations of these human rights, testing hepatitis vaccines on mentally retarded children, for example, by very good people, I’m not talking the — these were not evil people who did this work. But they were actually in violation of standard experimental practices. And the same applies to the miners. This, this went into the 70s. I mean, this went on into the 70s, long past. These articles that were enunciated in the Helsinki Accords have proper safeguards for “experiments on human beings”. So I think that that would be actually a very interesting exercise. I have no doubt there are a lot of lawyers who would take this on. I don’t think it’s — I think it would be a win. I just think if it goes to the Supreme Court, I honestly think it would win compensation.

Metta Spencer

I’m trying to think organizationally, of how movements work. And I’m running this thing called Project Save the World. And one of our one of what we’ve chosen as a mandate, if you will, is to work on pandemics, and another is to work on radioactive contamination. And both of them are medical issues. But would this larger project that you’re saying — a registry of exposure to potential toxins? If we took that as kind of a plank, that in a way would almost cover both? pandemics to some extent, and certainly the radioactive contamination exposure, wouldn’t it? So that that kind of recommendation or proposal or campaign would be right up our alley, wouldn’t it? Richard, what do you think? You know, our project? And would that be useful for people who are working on uranium mining and exposure to uranium? Or nuclear waste, which is some of the stuff you’ve been engaged in?

Richard Denton

Most definitely, most definitely Metta.

Janice Martell

The cheeriest thing I can think to end this: that there’s hope that what happened to these miners… and to the factory workers in the States, this is used in Mexico, the people that I haven’t been able to even reach yet — that their life experience is going to promote the kinds of changes globally. You know, because there are disadvantaged workers… when a mine cable doesn’t meet Canadian standards anymore, we send it to a third world country and it meets their standards. Well, there should there shouldn’t be a privileged country. Workplace standards in a poor country, workplace standards of … migrant workers or whatever. It’s a human rights issue. People have a right to be safe at work and not be exposed —

Metta Spencer

I’m speaking as a campaigner. How would you if you were going to take this issue up and make this the crux of a campaign? Where would you locate it? Would you try to get it put through the WHO? You’re saying, it’s not just a local thing because poor countries have —

Janice Martell

And so I thought about United Nations, it is on my radar, more than a class action suit, to do a human rights application for what happened to the miners and it’ll that hopefully will be a platform to or a pathway to, to getting this because that would be my ultimate goal, No amount of money is going to,

Metta Spencer

I mean, you need an organizational affiliation and institution to carry them the ball, you know, especially if you want it to be big. So, you need to figure out who is your partner. And I don’t know. Dr. Meloff, or Richard, both of you?

Richard Denton

Well, a precedent is tobacco. And… the provinces and the governments are now going after the tobacco industry for not doing proper testing, not recognizing it, even when the evidence did come out. We’re still advertising a dangerous product, and not making it aware. And so I think, again, it’s government’s that need to be doing this and governments need to be doing the regulation. And when we take away that regulation, then problems happen. We see this every day. We see this in the nursing homes right now with COVID. The regulations have been decreased. The people that were to do the inspections haven’t been doing it simply because that they were cut back, the numbers were cut back. And as a result, we now have a problem with COVID. And so, but I think Keith’s point of legal action is you need to put financial con-, earmark things or tag things with finances, with money. And it’s only when you start to get legal action that things actually start to change.

Janice Martell

I have looked into it and the current premier in Ontario, brought in legislation to change the act around how to sue people. And if you sue, you have to actually — basically negligence is off the table — you have to prove that the person intended to do harm when… so it’s, it’s dead in the water for that reason. And to me whether it did harm or not, it’s the… negligent aspect… the ‘we don’t know what this is going to do’. We think this, we didn’t have a control group… there was some evidence of, you know, manipulation of the — just how the initial experiments were done on humans, you know, that, even by the standards of that day… did not measure up whatsoever, and this was just pushed through. So, I, to me, it’s the issue: that they were exposed is more of a human rights violation than whether or not it did harm. I would certainly want to know whether it did harm. But every person who, who was exposed to this (against any Nuremberg Code) deserves compensation for that and recognition for that, period. And when they have that, that’s how you get a path to healing. How do you how do you heal when it’s just, you know, some of the quotes from my miners, it is mind blowing, you know — “I had a baby, I had a baby. I was 18 years old. I was a father, what am I going to do? I didn’t want to inhale this. What am I going to do? I had no choice.”

Metta Spencer

Thank you so much. It’s really wonderful that you’ve done this. And heroic, really, because you did it on your own. You just took you took the initiative. Dr. Meloff, I’m going to give you the last word, it has to be a quick word, because we’re over time.

Keith Meloff

I would like to follow this up sometime. I’m on the side here. For me, it’s personal as well, because I’ve been involved with this at many levels. And these are terrible diseases. I mean, if it’s, it’s actually one of the more discouraging parts of being a neurologist is dealing with these diseases. They’re all lethal. The ones we’ve all talked about Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, ALS, all of these diseases are lethal. And they aren’t curable. They’re treatable, but they’re not curable. And they shortened lives. So I’m on side here.

Metta Spencer

Thank you. I really appreciate this extremely interesting and important conversation. So some follow up, I don’t know but Bless you all for the work that you’re doing.

Richard Denton / Keith Meloff / Janice Martell

Thank you. Nice talking to you. Bye everybody.

T152. Peaceworking in Armenia

T152. Peaceworking in Armenia

 

Peaceworking in Armenia

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number: 152
Panelists: Jill Carr-Harris
Host: Metta Spencer
Date Aired: 4 January 2021
Date Transcribed: 10 March 2021
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits: David Millar

Metta Spencer

I’m Metta Spencer, and this is a great day for me because I get to talk to Jill Carr-Harris, a very dear friend who’s been off leading tracks across Asia. She was going to march from Delhi to Geneva, with a troupe of people following her. And she got as far as Armenia when COVID hit; she stayed there for a couple of… months, and then went back to India. And now she’s, she’s here in Toronto with me. I haven’t seen her because of COVID. But this is our first little get together in a while. Hello, dear Jill, how are you?

Jill Carr-Harris

Hello, Metta. What a pleasure to see you again.

Metta Spencer

It’s wonderful. Yeah, well, we have a great deal to do to get caught up, we need to actually skip a lot of your adventures this time. Or put them on hold for a while, so that we can talk about a serious global issue now, where I think you know more than most people. I’ve had some conversations lately about what has been going on in the Caucasus. And I know that you got stuck in Armenia. Since then Irakli has alarmed me with his prophecies — that serious human rights violations have been going on and may get worse. In, especially in Armenia, or with respect to the Armenian population,

Jill Carr-Harris

On this very, very important issue in the South Caucasus. It’s significant in terms of, in my view, global peace relations. So what happened is that, you know, Armenia… is an ancient civilization. It is one of the most ancient civilizations, and so many archaeologists and historians live in Armenia, and will tell you — as well, the 1000s of museums they have in their country will tell you — that Armenia was always in difficulty because it sat between what was once the Turkish Ottoman Empire [and] the Russian …(later the Soviet Union), and in early times the Iranian Empire. And so it was always squeezed. It’s a country that knows conquest… and yet ethnic Armenians have survived in this region, being mountain people… being really from this part of the world… the Turkish areas and the South Caucusus. They have a sacred relationship to their hereditary lands… There were many Armenians in the… Ottomans — living in Turkey. And at one point, and I don’t know the full story, but at one point, the, the Ottoman leaders really created a pogrom like our Jewish pogroms, and [in 1915-16] forced the Armenians to go on a long walk and many many died in what is known as the Armenian genocide . This was

Metta Spencer

about 100 years ago, right

Jill Carr-Harris

was about 100 years ago, it was over a period of about 10 or 11 years, from 1909 to 1921. that this happened, but they take usually the day of 1915… [or dates] in between to talk about it. But almost a million people were killed. And it what was very, very sad is that when the great powers after the first war, were trying to negotiate with a new Ataturk [regime] because, you know, at the end of the first war, the Ottoman Empire disintegrated, and the new Turkish country emerged. The Great Powers said to Turkey… even though they knew about the Armenian Genocide, everybody knew about it, they said, for the interests of the Turkish state, we will not make this Armenian genocide an issue — so that Turkey can… recover, you know, create its new statehood. And so as a result of that the Turks never acknowledged this genocide. And as time went on, they became harder and faster in their decision never to recognize it because if the Turks did recognize this genocide, they would have to pay reparations. So that was the first thing I want to record as as a very important historical moment. The second one, I believe it was under Stalin. Nagorno-Karabakh was part of ethnic Armenia. And when the Socialist Republics were being formed… getting a sense of their own boundaries. Stalin gave Nagorno-Karabakh to his Azerbaijan, but it was ethnic[ally] Armenia. And it was just willy nilly. He had maybe an, you know, an interest in Azerbaijan at that moment in time, but there was no logic to it. But that’s what happened. So at the time of the dissolution of the Soviet Union… starting in 1990, the Nagorno-Karabakh also like Azerbaijan, and Armenia, declared independence. Nagorno-Karabakh could as another… area, claim its independence, but that was not suitable — that was very welcomed by the former socialist state of Armenia, but unwelcomed by the former state of Azerbaijan, former Socialist Republic, so they went and had a war over Nagorno- Karabakh in 1991. It had been building up. As the dissolution of the Soviet Union happened, people in Nagorno-Karabakh felt very uncomfortable and the… nationalism that had been under the surface, during the whole period of the Soviet Union suddenly erupted. So there was in from… 1988. on there was.. Azeris were… killing and taking the homes of Armenians in Azerbaijan and Armenians were kicking out Azeris from their homeland.

Metta Spencer

Okay, we should stop it enough to say that the Azeris are the national group in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijanis would be the citizens of Azerbaijan, but Azeris would be the, the tribal identity or whatever you want to call it, a national identity of people, right.

Jill Carr-Harris

What I’m trying to say and to be quick about it… as we saw in the dissolution of Yugoslavia into ethnic struggles of different groups, the same thing happened in Azerbaijan and Armenia, and Nagorno-Karabakh’s ethno nationalism came up, and each side wanted to to see Nagorno-Karabak… the Azerbaijan government wanted to see it under Azerbaijan, and the Armenians wanted to see it under Armenia or leave it independent. So fast forward. Well, they fought a war for three year: 30,000 people were killed. It was an absolutely horrible war. After that war in 93, a particular Council was set up under the what they call, it’s called the OSCE… under Europe, a particular negotiating body was set up in order to resolve this dispute, right. So peace was created, there was a body set up to resolve this dispute. And the chairs of that body was the US, France and Russia.

Metta Spencer

The Minsk Group,

Jill Carr-Harris

it’s the Minsk Group, OSCE Minsk Group… that was set up to find peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Now… they obviously over 20 years did not successfully find a way although there was… many meetings… and that was partly because in my view, Russia did not want to see (particularly when Putin came back into power, when Putin became the head of government in Russia)… they did not want to see it… this was part of my discussions in Armenia. Even though we tried to involve Azerbaijan, it was difficult. So it was mainly between Armenians and Georgians. But we spent a great deal of time talking to people and learning that, that after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the region did not create horizontal linkages. They did not create cross country trade agreements and greater understanding and peace process — like [in] this Nagorno-Karabakh situation… the vertical, the vertical linkage to Moscow remained strong, right. In spite of their independent governments, and this was a great shame. But this had to do with the status-quo, governing groups in the different regions… the governing group in the 1990s in Armenia, was pro-Moscow, they saw the advantage of leaving that vertical link to Moscow (because don’t forget, they had Azerbaijan on one side, and they had Turkey on the other side). And they saw it in their best security interest to keep that vertical link of trade, of commerce, to the Soviet Union. They did build up commerce and trade with Iran. They did have a good relationship with Georgia. They could not sort out this with Azerbaijan. And Turkey kept its same adamant stance about the Armenian genocide. So… there was a bit of, a few skirmishes, in 2016 there was a skirmish and so on, between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but it was basically a frozen conflict. Now, what I understood, — and I’d like to give a little personal narrative here — I went to Nagorno-Karabakh in advance of our march, to try to understand the situation. And this was in July of 2019, so about a year and a half ago. I went by getting a visa, from the people in Nagorno-Karabakh, I knew that the Azerbaijan government would not really like it. But I went through the legal channels of getting a visa, and going and we… I was with a group of three people. But we went only on a weekend — not to just to observe, like an observer group — we didn’t go to have any formal meetings. We met some government people, but our main interest was to see how to set up a Gandhi center in Nagorno-Karabakh that could help build peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia. So this was our intention. And we met people at the university there, and we discussed it and there was a lot of interest. And we were moving in that direction. When we returned to India, in preparation for the march, thinking that we could bring the march to Nagorno-Karabakh, and we… were interested to talk to the Azerbaijan government because we were hoping to send another group through Azerbaijan. So this was, there was no favoritism to Armenia. As far as we were concerned, we were only trying to understand how this march could reinforce peace and not reinforce division. But when we got back to Delhi, we were called by the Azerbaijan government to sit down and have a cup of tea with them. So we went… two out of the three people who I was with, came to this meeting, and after a few nice formalities, the Azerbaijan ambassador to India said to us, you have been blacklisted by our government because you entered our territories without our permission, and you must sign something saying you apologize to our government, and then we will consider your peace march, and we will consider not blacklisting you. And you know, we were so taken aback — we had no idea what we were dealing with. What we were dealing with was an ambassador who was speaking directly for the senior foreign policy people… back home… maybe even at the President’s wish. And so we were shaken and said, “Well, sir, excuse me, but we did not in any way try to go into Nagorno-Karabakh without the Azerbaijan permission. We only did it because we were invited. We got a visa by the the government who is now governing that area.

Metta Spencer

The government that was running Nagorno-Karabakh was part officially of Azerbaijan, but must have not been seen as such by Azerbaijan, or else they wouldn’t mind having that government issue you a visa —

Jill Carr-Harris

No, no. So after the war of 93, and there was frozen peace, the Nagorno Karabakh people set up their own self government. And this self-government got the tacit support of the Armenians, but not of the Azerbaijan government, of course, because after… what the war did, was it flushed out large numbers of Azeri people, people of Azeri background, as you mentioned, from this region, and it was now predominantly ethnic Armenian-dominated and they set up that —

Metta Spencer

but if you look at the map or a lot of official documents, it looks like Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan.

Jill Carr-Harris

Correct. And that’s what’s confusing. It’s, you know… may I clarify that, which is, the Azerbaijan government had gone to the United Nations, showed them Stalin’s declaration or whatever legitimacy they had, and the UN because of — whatever, I don’t, I haven’t studied the politics and who is behind it and who introduced it, but the UN agreed with Azerbaijan, the UN Security Council, or the General Assembly, I’m not sure which, I believe it was the Security Council, possibly, for whatever reason, maybe because (Azerbaijan) Baku had recently found oil, and that oil was controlled by Anglo- American interests. And so maybe that had a reason for them to make a deal. But this UN agreement was not accepted by either the people in Nagorno-Karabakh as they described it to me, nor to Armenia. It was a bilateral decision, as far as they were concerned. Okay.

Metta Spencer

bilateral meaning UN and Azerbaijan…

Jill Carr-Harris

Yeah. multilateral but negotiated bilaterally, possibly with Security Council country members. So that’s what was the situation as we were sitting in front of this ambassador in Delhi, being scolded for going into their territories. And we said frankly, “We never knew, because we just landed up in Armenia, and we applied for a visa to go to Nagorno-Karabakh to understand whether a Gandhi foundation could be set up, and we got our visas and went, so excuse me, sir, we didn’t know that that was not legitimate, from your point of view, excuse me, for that we regret our decision of not getting more information. But we cannot apologize for something where we got a visa and went, right? Because that would mean that we are guilty. Where when we cannot say we were guilty. We actually applied for a visa. Now, whether this had gone so far that, you know, visas were… the result of a frozen conflict….”

Metta Spencer

Well, had you applied to Azerbaijan for visa? Would you’ve been able to get it that way?

Jill Carr-Harris

No, because they didn’t allow people to go to —

Metta Spencer

Unable to go in at all, if you hadn’t got the visa from Nagorno-Karabakh itself.

Jill Carr-Harris

Correct. And we went and and I have to tell you, we had written… this was actually later but we wrote to both governments, you know, we never, we were not doing this to support Armenia. We we had written both governments, we were planning to put the peace tour through both countries… we had gone to the see the ambassador in good faith to figure out how we could… bring our peace people, our peace march through Azerbaijan. And he was the one who said, “If you apologize, then we’ll discuss your peace effort.” And so we said, “Excuse me, I don’t think we can apologize. But certainly we regret not understanding that we were hurting your sensibilities, and that, you know, this was a result of a frozen conflict” and blah, blah, blah, blah. Anyway, they… made us write a letter. We apologized and the letter was sent to the foreign minister in Baku, and it was rejected. And he said we needed to apologize — by that time we were on the march. And so we we couldn’t even communicate. So it it just got left —

Metta Spencer

1000s of people from who knows all over the world who, for one reason or another go into the Nagorno-Karabakh, without getting a reprimand from the Azerbaijan government. How did they do it in those days?

Jill Carr-Harris

Well, ours was a different situation, because we were bringing international attention through a peace arch. So maybe the Azerbaijan government are not as concerned with a few individuals or tourists or maybe that’s not, but in our case, they were concerned because we were taking the messages out to the media, to Geneva, and they wanted their rightful heritage to be properly reflected. And that’s understandable. Now, I must … add, that at the time that we went into Nagorno-Karabakh, there was no Indian ambassador in Armenia, to guide us. Normally, we would have checked with the Indian ambassador in Armenia and said, You know, we’re going to Nagorno-Karabakh and … had it been the present one, he would have said, Don’t you dare, because that’s Azerbaijan. The past one was not so strict, you know, so, but the present ambassador, because we talked to him later about it, he would have said, “Look, had I been here, I would have said don’t go,” but it was before his arrival. So … our efforts to bring peace was seen by the Azerbaijan government as pro-Armenian, which was very unfortunate, because they could have used it in another way. But actually, I think by the time our peace march was going, judging by the reactions of the Indian Embassy in Yerevan in Armenia, I think already they [Azerbaijan] were planning for some sort of —

Metta Spencer

invasion or

Jill Carr-Harris

— because by the time… there was a big difference between June 2019 and February 2020, there was a very big difference in attitudes that I could see. So I suspect that Azerbaijan was already gearing up. And maybe because people like us were confusing their territory with Armenia, but as far as the Armenians are concerned — when Nikol Pashinian became prime minister in 2018. He had been formerly a journalist, and he was very interested in peace. It was one of the driving things that drove him to politics was we need to solve this, even if we need to really compromise with the Azerbaijan government. And he sat down two or three times you can see it on the in the Youtube with… in American universities primarily, different places. They sat down and they negotiate and they talked. And basically, you saw this democratically elected Nikol Pashinian. Talking to you know, Aliev [of Azerbaijan]… who is more seen as an authoritarian leader, saying, look, we really want to get this peace process on the ground and Aliev basically said, “It’s all of Nagorno-Karabakh to us, or nothing.” So there was no ground — what you had during — when you saw the war start on the 27th of September, for the 16-17 days that it raged. What you saw is Turkey had really backed up Aliev’s government with the military capacity which they needed to win over Armenia. Had they had their own military capacity [only], against which is what Armenia was gauging, that they had enough military in case there was an Azerbaijan attack, they were about equal. But Turkey came along and gave it modern drones and gave it some mercenary fighters and gave Aliev what he needed to make a brutal attack… on the ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh and that is what you saw. So as they were attacking, you could see the women and children of Nagorno-Karabakh receding back into Armenian territory, and the men stayed and fought, thousands died. You know, it’s a big part of their population. And Armenia… sent troops to help them, send military equipment to help them but they were, the Nagorno-Karabakh ethnic Armenians were leading because… there had been a recently elected new prime minister in Nagorno-Karabakh. So he was leading the fight. And, and with this Turkish military…, Pashinian either had to see complete massacre of the fighters (because they were not going to give up) of Nagorno-Karabakh, or he was going to step in and call for a ceasefire, if… I would have imagined that the Armenians would have thought that Russia was going to defend them at that point, precisely, because all these years they’ve had this… you have to see that Nikol Pashinian is a democrat, he pushed what, why he led a nonviolent revolution… the oligarchs were displaced by his mass movement and coming into power. And those oligarchs were Russian-backed oligarchs. Right? So suddenly, you see Russia is not so interested in jumping in, because they would like to see Nikol Pashinian out.

Metta Spencer

Okay, got it.

Jill Carr-Harris

So they delayed and delayed and delayed and delayed. And all of us were so surprised because they had agreements — from the perceptions of the people who I spoke with in Georgia and Armenia. So it may be biased, but their perception is that Putin did not come in on the basis of saying this is Nagorno-Karabakh… Only if Armenia is attacked, do we have any military responsibility. So that was the basis of their claim, which was a little stretched, I think… it’s not just about the the different political party, which they want to see back in power, but it’s also they want to see those vertical linkages. Back to Moscow. They didn’t want to see Nikol Pashinian , kind of wooing the West, the European Union, United States — that was not so comfortable. Yeah, they want that vertical, you know, Yerevan-Moscow, highway of trade, of commerce. They want the resources. So this democrat, of course, who came in in 2018, became a darling of the West, because he was a democrat — he was democratically elected, you know… that was another irritating part of this. And so now, Nikol Pashinian has called for elections next year. I mean, this coming January, February [2020], and he may well be pushed out of office. He says, I’m not holding on to power. but I want to see elections, I don’t want a coup. Yeah. So that’s the situation, as it stands now that Russia basically lined itself up with Turkey, very strange bedfellows because they had complementary interests in this region. Turkey wants to build a Turkic kind of, I wouldn’t say Empire, but a federation, across Azerbaijan to Central Asia, and right over to Indonesia, you know… and Russia wants the vertical link to Moscow, from Yervan. And also this way —

Metta Spencer

I’m trying to think of — because the Armenians are Christian. That would be a wart on the, on the skin of this new coalition or Turkic Empire, so to speak, that that would be a problem. Right? Is that the the main reason that?

Jill Carr-Harris

No, I don’t think so. You know, I have been to this region for many, many years. And there has never been a religious problem between Azerbaijan and Armenia. It’s not been religious. It’s been ethnic. Right. And that’s a bit different. So the religion can play into the ethnic, but it was not a religious issue. But Turkey, of course, wanted to make it a religious issue. So you have to see it’s kind of a Turkic Muslim. Yeah. And you realize that Central Asia are Turkic-related (historically) people. Now, Aliev in Azerbaijan has no interest in being under a Turkic Empire, that that is not really his interest. So he has to walk a very fine line, to keep everyone happy, but not to fall too deep into that trap. So that’s why he called on his Russian friends. And in fact, the way they tracked, they trapped Pashinian , it was Aliev who trapped Pashinian… during the war, went, sent a message to the Azerbaijan people and said: Let’s forget Turkey and Russia and sit down and talk piece, and we’ll sort out this ceasefire, and we don’t need Russia.

Metta Spencer

And he was rebuffed.

Jill Carr-Harris

And Aliev went to Putin and said, This guy is too close to the west, and is trying to go around Russia. Don’t forget Aliev trained in Russia. He’s a former — his father was the head of the Socialist Republic. He’s got good ties with Moscow. And it was because of that, that Moscow said, Okay, we’ll come in as a peace force.

Metta Spencer

Yeah. Irakli sounded quite alarmed about the possibility of genocide. I mean, that’s the word you used. Certainly. I hear he said that. There are atrocities going on now. I don’t know what’s what’s Russia’s position on that. What are these Russian peacekeepers there to do and and who’s doing what to whom know,

Jill Carr-Harris

The Georgians are at war with Russia over Abkhazia. So there’s another frozen conflict, in their country. Right. And they have kept Russia — because of their closeness to NATO and US, Europe — they’ve been able to keep Russia at bay. This [N-K] has given Russia entry into the Caucusus in a way they didn’t have before… they did have some troops on the border with Turkey in Armenia before, but this puts their troop levels up several thousands. And so they’re now in the region, and they can control a lot more. This makes the Georgians very afraid. So hints, some of the hype, Irakli does talk of genocide, I think it’s hyperbolic because genocide is a big word for what’s going on there now. Yeah. But with all with great respect to Irakli, what he’s trying to convey is a sentiment, which is that they’re losing — the South Caucasus is affected by this Russian, Russian entry, Russian peacekeepers — and it’s very dangerous for Georgia and the South Caucasus. And that is what he’s trying to say without saying that, I would say because you have to be careful in in that part of the world, how you say things. So now the genocide issue is the Armenians feel that what Azerbaijan with Turkey — mainly Turkey and mercenary support — did was to extend their genocide on Armenian people. So they see it in that in that regard, and that continues because… don’t forget, two thirds of the country… of Nagorno-Karabakh has now been taken over and now they’re trying to bring… Azerbaijan people there and flush out the Armenians there. So naturally, there’s human rights abuses. They’re all shifting around… and they’re giving up their houses in Nagorno-Karabakh. It’s not like the Azeri government, Azerbaijan government is saying, you stay in your houses, Armenians, we’ll look after you We just want — they’re pushing them out. So that is where the genocide idea comes. But I would say it’s it’s it doesn’t help to to see it as genocide just yet, I think but Armenians in their heart feel it is genocide. So —

Metta Spencer

What would you like to have happen?

Jill Carr-Harris

— So remember, I talked about these vertical linkages, when we heard about all these vertical linkages from your event, and this new desire to have… Armenia, more independent, and Georgia more independent… within this Russian Federation just be more independent. We set up a meeting on an old idea, which has been in that region, which is to set up a peace zone in the South Caucasus. Now, this sounded very, sounds very crazy now, because there’s just been a war. But this was pre-war. And what we were trying to say is that there’s a whole history of people who’ve been pushing for a peace zone in this region, why don’t we reconsider it so we can build greater horizontal linkages and not demonize Armenia, Azerbaijan, you know, by each other’s populations, but to find areas of collaboration. And similarly, just as we have in Nagorno Karabakh, we have a similar problem in Georgia, so to try to bring together this region, so it’s not divided against each other, and that we talked about a lot and it would have been still being discussed, but for the consequences of the events that came up. And so how do we, again, reintroduce this it’s going to take some time to let the dust To settle, it will depend on to some extent on the elections in Armenia next year, it will depend on how many Armenians are flushed out of Nagorno-Karabakh. So we have to let the dust settle before we can really see things. But in the meantime, there is a bit of a sense of victory, not only to the Azerbaijan government, but to the Turks and to the Russians.

Metta Spencer

You know, what I’m gathering from this is that for the time being, the reality is that this peace agreement, as basically dictated by Russia, is is the name of the game that one lives… within the framework of that. There is no intention of challenging that at the moment, or maybe ever. Even though Armenia wouldn’t like it, is how much wiggle room is there within that framework? For some kind of change?

Jill Carr-Harris

I think you need to talk to people more knowledgeable than I but I would just suggest that if the OSCE Minsk Group got reactivated… they could have an influence. And that has France and the US. So we’ve been waiting for the US to stabilize, I think to see whether that could happen.

Metta Spencer

Okay, so it might change under under Biden’s influence. Although I don’t I don’t think the US has shown any interest in the region for so long that I don’t think they have much influence.

Jill Carr-Harris

It’s possible. It’s possible but it’s also possible that they may have more interest in the Trump government.

Metta Spencer

Thank you, my dear.

Jill Carr-Harris

Thank you so much. Happy New Year.

Metta Spencer

Happy New Year.

T160. Enter, Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons!

T160. Enter, Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons!


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Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number: 160
Panelists: Earl Turcotte
Host: Metta Spencer

Date Aired: 12 January 2021
Date Transcribed: 14 February 2021
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits: David Millar

Metta Spencer

Hi, I’m Metta Spencer, how would you like to get rid of nuclear weapons? How would you like to abolish the damn things forever from the face of the planet? Well, I would too. And we have somebody with us today who is working on that. And in fact, I’m working on a little bit, but he is big time working. This is Earl Turcotte, who is chairing the Canadian network to abolish nuclear weapons, and probably a half a dozen other good organizations, because he’s a retired diplomat from the Canadian government and from the United Nations. Good morning Earl.

Earl Turcotte

Good morning. Better, very happy to be with you.

Metta Spencer

Yeah, well, I’m delighted to have you with me too, because you’re going to help me get straightened out. I’m going to tell people that there is such a thing as colloquially called the ban treaty, or the TPNW, which stands for the Treaty on the prohibition, or for the prohibition of nuclear weapons.

Earl Turcotte

The Treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons.

Metta Spencer

Right? That’s great. Okay, and that’s what we are celebrating, because in a few days, it’s going to come into force. After you negotiate a treaty, you have to get a bunch of countries to sign it, when you get 50 of them to sign it, at least, then you wait a while, and it comes into force, it becomes international law. And that’s going to happen. So we are in Canada, and around the world, people who are activists, and who are concerned about nuclear weapons are acting together in various kinds of campaigns, to not only celebrate this event, and call attention to it, but also to get our countries to endorse it, or sign it and ratify it. I should have said after 50 have ratified it, which is different from just signing it. After they’ve signed and ratified, then we, we have this treaty, but we want to get our countries to ratify or sign it and ratified rather. And here we have a lot going on in Canada and Earl is on top of it, and I’m not. So Earl, there are at least three or four different projects going on, which you know about and I get emails flying around my inbox every day so that I’m totally overwhelmed with it. How are you? And what’s your role in this whole thing? And let’s get a first an overview of what your your position and and the organizations that I’m sort of involved with, on this matter. And then I want to ask you a bunch of specific questions about particular things that are planned events that are in the works. So pretend I never met you, who is your ochre cod and why should I like you?

Earl Turcotte

Well, maybe you shouldn’t like me, but I would like it if you did.

Metta Spencer

I like it. So explain why I like you so much.

Earl Turcotte

Well, I am the current chair of the Canadian network to abolish nuclear weapons. And this is a network of currently 17 soon to be 18 nongovernmental organizations that have various remits various mandates, but one thing in common and that is that they are all absolutely committed to the to the abolition of nuclear weapons. I’ll just name a few of our member organizations of the Canadian Coalition for nuclear responsibility. Canadian Pugwash group the group of 78 project plowshares religions for peace, the Rideau Institute, and, and so on. So you just get a flavor of the of the diverse organizations that are part of our network. We also work outside the network very cooperatively and recently in particular extremely well with with different NGOs, and and Coalition’s, such as the international campaign to abolish nuclear weapons, and also here in Canada, organizations that follow him signed the form network itself. So we all have the commitment to nuclear evolution in common and we were all absolutely delighted when in 2017 124 countries came together and negotiated the Treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons the TPNW. Now out of the 124 it was absolutely astounding that at the end 122 actually endorsed the text following. T he only two that didn’t were the Netherlands, which, as you know, is a NATO state. And they were the only NATO state that participated in the negotiations. And Singapore, I believe, abstained in the end. So other than that, we got pretty much two thirds of the world states having endorsed the text. Since that time — legally, the way it happens is up to the point of the entry into force, that is to say, when a treaty becomes legally binding, there’s a two stage process — 1. states first sign, which is an indication of intent, really. 2. one of the obligations is for them to put in place domestic legislation that will reflect all of the legally binding obligations and prohibitions that are required under the treaty, to make sure that their domestic laws are consistent and will uphold the treaty. It takes time to do that. And as you can imagine, bills have to be passed through Parliaments or through government and and signed into law. At that point, then a state can ratify, and submit its instruments of ratification to the depository. In this case, it is the Secretary General of the United Nations. And in the case of the TPNW, the Treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons, a threshold of 50 states was set as the minimum number of states that had to ratify to trigger the entry into force 90 days later.

Metta Spencer

Oh, me but I that’s interesting, too, because you just told me something I didn’t know. I didn’t realize that. It varied I assumed it was 50 for all treaties, that’s just part of the world. But no, if each treaty sets its own threshold,

Earl Turcotte

Yes, yes, it does. And that’s caused all kinds of repercussions. In different treaties, sometimes the threshold has been set extremely high to trigger the entry into force. And indeed, some treaties have not entered into force yet. So this one, the threshold was was healthy: 50 states. But it was met fairly quickly in in diplomatic terms very quickly, indeed. And the 50th state ratified on the 25th of October of last year; hence, the act triggered the 90 day period for entry into force. And on January 22, it will formally enter into force. Now, what that means, first and foremost is that that treaty then becomes legally binding on all states that have become a party to it. Very important, it is not legally binding on states that have chosen not to become party to it. That said, It establishes a new international norm. And this is the first time that that nuclear weapons will have been deemed completely illegal in international law. For the parties that have been referred to, states that have become a party to this tree.

Metta Spencer

I don’t want to deflect you bit. But you know, I’m sure that everybody is listening who listens with a skeptical ear is going to say, Well, so what if the countries that own the nuclear weapons are not bound by it? So what else do you got? that’s worthwhile? Why is this importance?

Earl Turcotte

Okay, well, it’s a number. It’s important for a whole number of reasons. One is it establishes a new norm in effect, these weapons have been stigmatized. And this has affected the behavior of states in the past with other treaties, whether or not they are party to the treaty. Think of anti personnel landmines. Think of cluster munitions. Think of chemical and biological. Well, you know, the United States, for example, has refused to become party to either the mine ban treaty or the Convention on cluster munitions. But they have not used anti-personnel landmines for many, many years, in large part because of the stigmatization that is now associated with them.

Metta Spencer

So it helps establish the norm. As devil’s advocate, let me let me imagine that somebody would certainly say, well, nor have they exploded a nuclear weapon in many, many years. So what else is new?

Earl Turcotte

That is true. Okay. Well, what else is new is that this treaty contains a provision that requires all states party to make best efforts to universalize the treaty. So they have this this imposes a legal obligation on countries that become party to this treaty to make their best efforts to persuade states not party to join the treaty. This will affect their international relations, not only in multilateral disarmament forum, but also if diplomats are doing their jobs in their bilateral relationships, this should become a talking point in any other major interactions from one state, a state party to non-state party, urging them so in effect, what you’re doing is you are establishing a lobbying effort, an official lobbying effort among states that reflects the kind of lobbying that civil society has been doing for years. And in this case, it is required. Oh, it will, it will have an effect.

Metta Spencer

Okay, now, now, let’s say this, that sounds begins to sound like teeth, that the thing may have. So if I were a military leader, loving my nuclear weapons and, and possessing a few, I imagine that what I would do is either try to ignore this thing and pretend it didn’t exist, which I assume, explains the fact that there’s no publicity in one of the nuclear countries, certainly the US as I can tell, or I would fight it and and try to get people to not sign it, or what else would I do?

Earl Turcotte

Well, actually, both usually. The greatest insult that can be leveled at a process like this is for it to be ignored. And in the beginning, before the treaty was negotiated, indeed, nuclear armed states did ignore the process. They did not take it seriously. When the negotiations commenced, they took it very, very seriously. And tried to discourage participation. And indeed, the United States made a concerted effort to discourage all of its allies to boycott the negotiations. And all NATO states except one, the Netherlands, did. And it became clear later on that the Netherlands participated, not because they were negotiating in good faith, but they were they were doing their level best (it appeared) to to reduce the effectiveness of any instrument that might emerge from the negotiations. And in the end, they voted against it. So they played the typical spoiler role. So the United — so NATO — has not ignored and very interestingly, on the 20th of October, or 23rd, sometime that week, NATO made a point of coming out on the occasion of the 50th state ratifying again, denouncing the treaty, and the United States wrote a letter to all states that had signed for ratified, essentially informed them in no uncertain terms, that in their view, they had made a strategic mistake, and strongly urge them to withdraw from the treaty. So that I think can be taken as a compliment. They are taking this treaty very seriously. They know it has teeth, they know it will have impact, it cannot be ignored. And remember, 122 states endorsed the text of the treaty. So it’s only a matter of time, as far as we’re concerned, before at least that number of states join the treaty. And when you have two thirds of the world that in a fairly short period of time is going to consider nuclear weapons to be illegal, as well as immoral, that will bring to bear tremendous pressure on the nine nuclear armed states and their enabling states, their allies, including, unfortunately, our own.

Metta Spencer

Okay, well, now, you’ve mentioned that the NATO states are certainly foremost among those opposing it. But is there much variation among states that own nuclear weapons in their attitude toward this treaty? Have they expressed different points of view — say, China, Russia, India, etc, all of these different countries that own nuclear weapons? Are they as adamant about the matter as the US has been in getting NATO to oppose it?

Earl Turcotte

I don’t have a lot of detailed information on that, Metta, I can tell you that they are quite uniform, all nine nuclear armed states have uniformly denounced this treaty. To my knowledge. I don’t have the details on specific statements. I’ve been following the US very closely. And of course, the UK and France. The other two NATO states that are have nuclear weapons are standing firmly with the United States on this. And indeed, non-nuclear armed NATO allies are as well. So this is something we have to work against. But no there is not one of the nine nuclear armed states that has spoken highly about this treaty. However, there are some nuclear armed states that have indicated that they’re very open to dialogue and and and discussion on where they might go from here to pursue nuclear disarmament. And I should, in fairness to the United States and whatnot, and to their allies, make it very clear that NATO itself has said it is completely and sincerely committed to the ultimate goal of the elimination of nuclear weapons. Yes, they are. What is that issue is when and how. And they believe that this is not the way to go. In part, and it’s a kind of a circuitous argument, they say, well, this treaty does not involve any nuclear-armed states, therefore, it will not ultimately result in the destruction of any nuclear arms. Well, it begs the question, if they were to join the treaty, then indeed, it would have that impact. But aside from that, there is a tremendous value in this treaty from a non-proliferation perspective. And what’s kind of ironic is, on one hand, nuclear-armed states are advocating for non-proliferation, that is to say, although we want to retain our nuclear weapons, we don’t want anyone else to have them. Heaven forbid that Iran and North Korea should have nuclear weapons, because then it poses a global threat, whereas ours, of course, are a guarantee of international security. The hypocrisy in the double standards is palpable. But they they are all nonetheless, at least in theory, committed to nuclear disarmament. The question is, what are they going to do? Now, where this plays out in reality is interesting. A case in point: the New Start tree that is going to expire next month. As it’s a bilateral treaty between the US and Russia, that has imposed tremendous limitations on strategic weapons, Russia has said that it is prepared to extend the New Start treaty for five years without any preconditions. And this can be done simply on the basis of a signature. To date, the Trump administration has absolutely refused to do that. And we’re very hopeful that Mr. Biden when he takes over and he has indicated that a renewal of New Start is going to be near the top of the list of priorities, we hope that he follows through on that, and I suspect that will perhaps get things off on on a better footing in terms of getting back to dialogue between the US and Russia, which between the two of them possess more than 90% of all the nuclear arms in the world. So any bilateral agreement they have, and any new agreements that can be negotiated, can have tremendous impact. And ultimately, as happened during the Reagan-Gorbachev years, if they can come to agreement on making major reductions in the number of nuclear arms in their respective arsenals, this can have tremendous ripple effect and multiplier effect among other nuclear-armed states. Because the reality is that right now, and for about the past four years, they’ve embarked on a new nuclear arms race, under the banner of modernization, but they’re also developing new missile technologies and lower-yield US nuclear weapons that, in fact, can be more dangerous, because they’re more easily deployable. And the threshold for use is lower. All of these things: this is a very, very scary time. And as you will know, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists have set the doomsday clock at 100 seconds to midnight, the closest it has been in history, closer than during the Cold War during the Cuban Missile Crisis,

Metta Spencer

The average person certainly in all of the nuclear-armed states, and probably many others, including Canada, \is really unaware of this danger and thinks that in a way, the nuclear weapons issue is something that we worried about 30 or 40 years ago, and we don’t need to worry about any more. And I think that what, you know, here we have this extremely interesting conjunction of both opportunity with a ban treaty and increasing risk that people are simply not aware of. And really, we need to bring these two things together and make people realize how urgent. The situation is and how accessible the answer is, you know.

Earl Turcotte

And let me make a couple of points here. One is that the position our network has taken as this is that if nuclear-armed states have an issue with the way the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which we think is wonderful — and it is actually a much more robust and comprehensive instrument than most people give it credit for, I mean, I’ve gone through it in detail and, and it, it has a lot of positive or all all the basic prohibitions, but also positive obligations on it for remediation of territory that has been affected by testing. And, of course, the hibakusha victim assistance for victim assistance for the hibakusha, the Japanese who were affected for Japanese victims of the bombing in Vienna, in 1945. It’s a very robust treaty. But if for whatever reason nuclear armed states refuse to support it or become party to it, then what we are advocating is for them, then to commence negotiations on a calm, complimentary, legally binding instrument of their own making, as long as achieves the same ultimate goal. And that is essentially the complete and total elimination of nuclear weapons, and placing all existing weapons-grade fissile material under effective international control, until such time as it can be depleted to more safe levels and contained. And to put in place a means of verification to ensure compliance. And that is the only way we’re going to put this genie back in the bottle. We’re not suggesting that NATO unilaterally disarm, that could be destabilizing, and it’s not going to happen. What we want is for NATO to take the lead in engaging all nuclear-armed states, in discussions that will lead to negotiations of a comprehensive, multilateral treaty (if this is not the one for them) that will have the same result, to go hand in hand and just get rid of these weapons in a very, very systematic, careful way, while putting in place measures for common sustainable security for all to see us through that period, that some might consider to be very destabilizing. In fact, we believe it would make it much more stable. Because one of the greatest threats to stability internationally today is the existence of nuclear weapons. Get rid of those and what the world will feel like and be a much more secure place. And we want Canada to play a leadership role in pushing NATO. To do that. We have a few minutes, maybe we can talk now about some of the initiatives we’re trying to do that.

Metta Spencer

Right. Well, we we don’t have to finish it at one o’clock if, you know, we get wound up. Going to cut us off. Nothing happens as it would if we were really on TV. So yeah, let me ask one more question. Maybe it’s sort of a diversion. But it’s of interest to me. That is you almost said something that related to a dispute. I don’t know whether you’d call it a dispute or a question that has arisen in some of the meetings. And that is we there’s always been for many years an effort to promote something that’s called a convention on nuclear weapons. And that’s went on way, before we begin the initiative to create the TPNW. But what I heard you say once in a meeting was– look, this ban treaty is so good, that it’s enough by itself, if people would use it, it’s got all the ingredients in it, that would be necessary in a convention. And therefore, we don’t really need a convention. But now you’ve you’ve suggested that, well, if nuclear weapons states don’t like what we’ve done, this TPNW, then of course, go get a convention. Am I right in interpreting what you said and and, and tell me if you know, if there’s a qualification that way.

Earl Turcotte

Yeah, the two are not mutually exclusive. No, there are elements in this convention. And I have to say the way the negotiators negotiated, it was extremely deft, it was very, very well done. They did not upfront decide on one of the thorniest mechanisms is going to be the means to ensure, to verify that states are doing what they say they will do and to ensure compliance. So you’ve got to have a competent international authority that can monitor the action the behavior of states, the actions of states and and ensure compliance, to be able to submit reports to ensure that people are doing what they say they’re going to do. Now, in this treaty, it does not expressly lay out how that is going to be done. What it does do is it says that, once the treaty is in force, that within one year, there will be a meeting of states party. And at that meeting of states party, they will identify a competent international authority that will help them establish the technical means to monitor to verify and to ensure compliance with all the provisions of the treaty. Now, there have been a number of ideas, because that in itself is a negotiation. There are a number of ways this can be done, we have the International Atomic Energy Agency agreements that are in place, we have the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization, the CTBTO, that has a tremendous technical capacity and knowledge. To do this, you could establish a new body and bring in all the relevant expertise that you need to do this. There are a number of ways it could be done, but the negotiators knew they did not have the time during that negotiation. And that also, this is something that could be negotiated later. And this is not unusual. You can consider this in many ways, as a framework treaty with certain technical elements that need to be fleshed out. But the obligations and the commitments are there. So for NATO, to to criticize the TPNW by saying, well, it doesn’t include measures for verification and compliance — well, the response to that is not yet but it will shortly. So they’d like to point to the weakness of it. I think, as they said, I stand by the fact that this is a robust treaty, a very high quality document. And other countries could simply adopt it and take it forward. Politically, I don’t think that will happen, if for no other reason, than to save national face, countries that denounced this process from the beginning, because they weren’t leading it… and didn’t want to be dragged along, kicking and screaming, will, for that reason alone, probably never want to simply say, okay, we’ve changed our minds will become a party to the TPNW. They might want to negotiate their own treaty. And again, I think that’s fine… it’s not the the instrument, it is the impact that is ultimately important. So they can do that. But right now, they’ve demonstrated no political will to do that.

Metta Spencer

Do they claim or do any of them claim that the reason they don’t do it is that it’s not really possible or feasible to realistically establish a verification regime? Do they say… we cannot establish mechanisms for detection of any lack of compliance? Therefore, we can’t really create such a treaty? They don’t claim this?

Earl Turcotte

No, that’s not really the issue, because it’s done in the case of chemical and biological weapons and other weapon systems… it’s not a technical constraint. What is missing is the political will to give up nuclear weapons. That’s what’s missing. And… our view is that we have to increase the pressure among other states of the world that believe these things have to be gone. Because let’s face it, this is an existential threat for the whole planet, we have not only the right but indeed the responsibility for no other reason than self defense and defense of the planet, to do everything we can to bring pressure to bear on nuclear armed states. And civil society plays a very, very important role in pressing states as well to do that. And I think now that we’ve got a core here, of states with a legal obligation, and that is going to increase over time, as they begin to universalize. And as others get their instruments of ratification submitted and everything else, the numbers will become greater and greater. And we’ve got to circle,encircle nuclear armed states (metaphorically speaking) and turn up the heat. Big time. I’m of the view that any country that retains nuclear weapons… or will threaten to use nuclear weapons is in fact a rogue state and should be regarded as such. And we should bring all manner of diplomatic, economic and social pressure to bear against such countries until they give them up.

Metta Spencer

Well, you know, turning up the heat sounds good to me, and I’ve got my (book) torch right here. Let’s go for it. And I’m not the only one because obviously with my inbox full of mail about things that are going to happen in the next few days to try to turn up the heat under the Canadian government to sign and ratify the treaty. And, by the way, let’s take a second and talk about the danger that is alleged, or the constraint that is alleged, before we talk about the particulars of our various campaigns. People say, well, can’t Canada couldn’t sign it? Because we’re part of NATO. And I think we ought to talk about that a second. What’s the issue? What Why can’t Canada sign as a member of NATO? And or ratify? And is it really true? Is there a way around it?

Earl Turcotte

I think …it’s a misconception that Canada cannot both remain a member of NATO in good standing and ratify the TPNW, what Canada would have to do, would be to disassociate itself from the Nuclear Security doctrine within NATO. Now, NATO does not require that all states move in lockstep and have identical security doctrines by which they abide. Case in point, we have a ban on anti-personnel mines, and cluster munitions; the United States does not. You know, we’re both NATO states, we have worked out a modus vivendi with other nations within NATO. So different security doctrines. The nuclear security doctrine is just another issue where states can have diverse approaches, all they would have to do to be eligible to join TPNW would be to denounce nuclear weapons, to commit to their verifiable elimination over time within a certain timetable that would be established under treaty. And they can remain members of NATO if they so choose, under those circumstances. And in fact, in my view, that would be the ideal situation, it I think that we would have a much more powerful voice in influencing NATO, as a member of NATO — than we would if we were to withdraw from NATO, where we then become another distant voice, perhaps considered to be a former disgruntled member of NATO. I would like Canada to remain a member of NATO, but try to reform NATO security doctrine, not just in the area by the way of nuclear weapons, but in many other areas where I and others have taken great exception to some of the behavior of NATO. That said, we take great exception to the behavior of many other states as well, outside of NATO. And, and I for one, I’m glad that we have a bulwark, you know, to to contain that, as well.

Metta Spencer

Well, everything you said, makes me happy. And makes me optimistic that everything could be done if we just get our act together and push a little bit. So this pushing is about to, you know, take on momentum in the next few days. As we approach the time when the treaty comes into effect. Tell me and help me get clear about all of these different campaigns and meetings and events that are planned?

Earl Turcotte

Well, there are a number of things going on. And I would if you want to know what’s going on around the world, I would refer you to the ICANW website, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons. They have a long list of things that are going on around the world. I’ll mention a couple of things that are happening here in Canada. … On November 19. a webinar was held that was sponsored by the Canadian Foreign Policy Institute and moderated by them that involved three members of parliament. Elizabeth May of the Green Party, Heather MacPherson, of the NDP and Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe of the BQ. This was on the occasion of the 50th state ratifying, to celebrate if you like, the imminent entry into force of the TPNW. Excuse me.

Metta Spencer

Now, you mentioned three parties. You did not mention the Liberals or the Conservatives. … comment on that.

Earl Turcotte

Our colleagues on one of our member organizations, the Hiroshima-Nagasaki Coalition took the lead on putting this in place with the Canadian Foreign Policy Institute… Dr. Anton Wagner, I think was spearheading it and so they worked very closely together. They did invite Dr. Hedi Fry of the Liberal Party who is also a member of Parliamentarians for Nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, and has been for decades. So she personally is a very, very strong advocate for nuclear arms control. And she was scheduled to participate.

Metta Spencer

I’m sorry, Dr. Hedi Fry… You mentioned an NDP person.

Earl Turcotte

Yes… Heather MacPherson, of the NDP. Yes. And Dr. Hedi Fry, the Liberal. I know she was scheduled to participate, had committed to it and ran into some scheduling issues that prevented her from participating. Full stop. And to my knowledge, the Conservatives were invited, but declined to participate.

Metta Spencer

Now… our government is a Liberal government. And would that have meant that she was in any way compromised by the fact that she’s part of… the Liberal government, and would maybe not be free to say something that would be in opposition to the party’s position?

Earl Turcotte

Well, let’s look at some of the speculation. And of course, we don’t we don’t know for certain, but I do know that she has been… one of the longest standing Liberal MPs in Parliament, and if not the, and has been a very, very outspoken proponent of nuclear arms control, both in Canada and internationally. So I give her full benefit of the doubt as to why she did not participate in that event. Now, what happened is during that webinar, the MPs themselves came up with a suggestion that a press conference might be held to mark the entry into force of the TPNW. And indeed, that has now been scheduled for the 21st of this month, the day before entry into force, because entry into force happens to fall on a Friday. And holding a press conference on a Friday is not considered the best day. And also because Parliament is going to reconvene the following Monday. There are a lot of things going on, on Friday in caucus and whatnot. So there will be a press conference at 10 o’clock am Eastern time. And Heather MacPherson herself, will physically be at the press theater. Or in actually it’s the Sir John A Macdonald room. Or in the Sir John A Macdonald building rather, here on the hill. And also participating will be Elizabeth May, for the greens, Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe for the BQ, and as a representative of civil society, nominated by our network, the Canadian network to abolish nuclear weapons, the Honorable Douglas Roche, recipient of the Order of Canada, and actually the founding Chair of the CNANW and a longtime passionate advocate for nuclear disarmament. So we’re delighted that we have them already… Dr. Fry has been invited to participate in this and she is considering it as well. And we have sent an invitation to Erin O’Toole for a Conservative to to participate as well. So we would be delighted if we have all-party representation in this nonpartisan event to mark the entry into force of the TPNW. That’s one thing that’s happening. Another thing you should be aware of is that Dr. Wagner and and his colleagues in the in the Hiroshima-Nagasaki day coalition, again took the lead on pulling together broad support for an ad that is going to be placed in the Hill Times, which is read by parliamentarians and the diplomatic corps, and a lot of people in the know across Canada. It’s a wonderful publication. And but this is going to be a paid ad that is going to run at least two and probably three pages long. Because it’s going to be endorsed by quite a few organizations and individuals and the names will all be spelled out there. What it is asking, in fact, it’s a call upon the Government of Canada to allow a debate in Parliament on the TPNW. And a secondary request is to hold public hearings in the Standing Committee on International Affairs… pardon me, Foreign Affairs and International Development on Canada’s role in advancing nuclear disarmament more generally. So we are hopeful that the MPs participating in this press conference might support this request by civil society for a parliamentary debate and committee hearings. Because what we want to do is to finally get the government to respond to multiple requests that we have made for Canada to step up and to start to play a leadership role in nuclear disarmament, as our current Prime Minister’s father did back in the 80s. He made it a personal mission… of his to engage world leaders on nuclear disarmament to suffocate the nuclear arms race. And, you know… Canada took the lead in the anti-personnel mine ban treaty. We demonstrated that kind of international leadership in arms control and disarmament in the past, but we have certainly not done it in nuclear disarmament, we’ve pursued things that are important, the fissile material cutoff treaty and whatnot. But we’ve got nowhere in part, because we limit ourselves to trying to make headway through traditional multilateral fora, one in particular, the Conference on Disarmament, that operates on the basis of consensus… which is a recipe for paralysis and has done nothing for almost 25 years. So we want Canada to start to demonstrate real leadership, take this to the UN, as this treaty was taken through the UN, and operate under the rules of the General Assembly, where votes can be held. And no single country or small group of countries can hold the world ransom as they can in the CD or in the in the Security Council for that matter.

Metta Spencer

Well, that is exactly the kind of ambition that I want to encourage, certainly, I am myself felt discouraged over the over the years, with the failure of the government to respond to whatever prodding we do. And certainly, there was an initiative some years ago… for the members of the Order of Canada, to put an initiative to Parliament, maybe you can mention what happened there, and how the whole thing just, you know, fizzled out or never went anywhere.

Earl Turcotte

Well… a sister organization, Canadians for Nuclear Weapons Convention [under Pugwash]… its members are limited to recipients of the Order of Canada, and they have over 1000 representatives of the Order of Canada, who are supportive. This organization is chaired by our colleague and mutual friend Ernie Regehr. And it does tremendous work. Now I know they have written them, I’ve seen the letters that they have written wonderful, thoughtful, knowledgeable letters to the government. We’ve done a few of our own, our own through the network, and whatnot. And we have received no responses to our letters. And to my knowledge… I don’t think CNWC has either.

Metta Spencer

You know, the fact that this initiative was addressed in Parliament and accepted by both houses,

Earl Turcotte

I’m sorry, but what you’re referring to, I believe, is in 2010… in 2010, there was a motion adopted in Parliament. And the Senate [gave] actually unanimous support for a motion that Canada begin to play a leadership role and to… undertake a major international diplomatic initiative to pursue nuclear disarmament. And more recently, in 2018, the Standing Committee on National Defense made an all-party recommendation to the government in 2018, that Canada take a leadership role in NATO, in pursuing nuclear disarmament through NATO. So it seems we have in Parliament, a lot of parliamentarians who are supportive of doing this. And I’ll tell you what’s been missing, I think, is a sense of urgency, that this is unlike climate change, that the dangers are not imminent? Well, I’ll tell you, right events of late are changing that perception. Look at what happened this past week, when you had the Speaker of the House in the US having to speak to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to ensure that the incumbent president doesn’t do something stupid like launch nuclear weapons. I mean, this is just one instance of what could possibly happen with the wrong person with access to nuclear weaponry. We know that terrorist organizations, several terrorist organizations around the world are trying to acquire nuclear weapons capability and fissile material. So whether that’ll be for a traditional nuclear bomb, or… a dirty Bomb, the danger exists and you can be sure that if they acquire that capability, they will use it. It is simply a matter of time before something happens unless we get rid of these weapons, and we rein in all the fissile material that is floating around out there and put it under effective control. We’ve got to put this genie back in the bottle and people what you are doing a lot to help do that. And we’re very grateful.

Metta Spencer

Well, this is exactly, you know, what haunted me that all these years ago, Parliament said, do something and nothing was done. That’s what bugs me, you know, we need to get on to it. And this is what happened this week is exactly an exemplification of the kind of threat that’s been there all along. I mean, you know, Trump is the same madman, he’s always been… the danger has existed and in fact, gets worse all the time. So it is an enormous risk. And, and it is something that we absolutely have to get a high priority to. So I just take my hat off to you are up for being a ringleader in this enterprise. And, and for the ringmaster let’s say I think of you in the in the circus

Earl Turcotte

It really is a team effort.

Metta Spencer

Let’s encourage the listeners if there’s anybody out there and there will be a few, at any rate, to take it on… what should a person do if if we have managed to ignite their anxieties?

Earl Turcotte

Well, a number of things. One is there is an electronic petition that was initiated by our colleague, Dr. Nessie Covington, that is being sponsored by Elizabeth May, an electronic petition that is going to go to Parliament, I think February 6 is the last day for for people to sign that can be found online. Actually, look under the CNANW website, I believe, I believe we have it posted there. If not, I’ll make sure it is later today.

Metta Spencer

If you’ll send me make sure it’s correct so that I don’t put up the wrong thing. But whatever links you want put at the end of this show, of course, now we’re doing this live, but it will go on our YouTube site and other places for people to look at indefinitely. And at the end, I’ll put a sign showing all the links that we want to refer to. So make sure I have everything that I need. Right. And I’ll put it up today.

Earl Turcotte

And better, there is there is another very important development and that is the CNANW is is updating a call to action to the Government of Canada. We’re going to have this released just before the press conference on the 21st, I expect, and it sets out 15 specific recommendations and several sub recommendations to the Government of Canada, we would like Canada to undertake in order to play this leadership role nationally and internationally on nuclear disarmament. So what we will be asking is we’ll be sending it directly to the government to the Prime Minister and relevant ministers under our signatures alone at this stage, but we will then be circulating it broadly asking organizations and individuals to to endorse it. And then when they endorse it to send it to forwarded to the Prime Minister’s office and to the relevant ministers indicating that they support this so that we in effect, have it like each one becomes an individual petition if you like. And we would like to blanket ,electronically blanket our political leaders, and let them know that Canadians care, because what is missing right now is the voice of Canadians across the country. We have a voice but it’s not strong enough. And we need a bigger course. And we need more leaders as well, and especially young people. So

Metta Spencer

Let’s talk beyond Canada. Because although not many people today are probably watching us outside of Canada. This is going to be on YouTube and Facebook and places that go around the world. And we are publicizing it and I will be published everything and even more. So there’ll be people in other countries watching this too. And I want to suggest that that you tell people what they can do, what other countries are making the kind of effort so far as you know, that Canadians are making to try to draw attention to this on the 22nd of January. And what what can people do if they don’t happen to live in Canada, but they want to show their enthusiasm for this new ban treaty.

Earl Turcotte

Well First of all, I know that almost every country that participated in the negotiations of TPNW has activities ongoing. So, you know… people can use the internet to find out what their own nation is doing. But also on the internet, the the international campaign to abolish nuclear weapons, ICANN has a website in which they give you they give you and I have it right here, the status of the treaty, who is party to it, who has ratified, who has signed, who has not, and things that they can do. And they also have posted events and whatnot. And if anyone would like to know how they can help, I would urge them to contact if they’re not in Canada, urge them to contact ICANN directly, and and seek guidance. And as other ideas come into my head…

Metta Spencer

Now this, this show will be available long after January 2, people will be seeing it a year from him, because we put it on a loop on our YouTube channel where it goes a day and night with a bunch of other shows. And eventually it’ll pop up and people will check. Check it out and see it. So we need to give some advice to people who are agitated about this issue. And watching it later about what they can do after the treaty has come into force to try to promote it. And who what what do we need to do? If If what do viewers who are watching a year or two from now? And we’re now in January 2021. What should they be doing that will help promote this.

Earl Turcotte

I would urge them first and foremost to contact their political leaders, their national leaders — write a letter and ask them what they are doing. Find out what your country’s position is on this treaty and on nuclear disarmament more generally, make the inquiry directly. Then I would urge them to identify NGOs, non government organizations, civil society organizations in their own country that are active actively engaged in promoting the treaty and promoting nuclear disarmament more generally, and join forces with them. find out who’s already in the lead and and see where you might be instrumental but there’s there is no substitute for direct communication with your national leaders in democratic countries, especially to bring pressure to bear. They have to know that the average citizen cares is interested and is watching is and, and speak out often. To… engage them in this because they do respond. But in a democracy generally they eventually respond if the pressure is high enough and enough voices are out there.

Metta Spencer

All right, we’ve covered the waterfront and and that’s just what we needed to do today. I think and I’m really grateful to you and I’m glad because it was also fun and enjoyable. So greetings to everybody out there who have become a peace worker and an anti nuclear weapons advocate just because our friend Earl for caught here so onwards.

Earl Turcotte

Thanks so much. Thanks all for watching.

Metta Spencer

Yeah, thank you