Episode 514 Forests in Cities

Episode 514 Forests in Cities

SUMMARY KEYWORDS

trees, forest, carbon, plant, people, sequester, cities, land, tree, cut, big, canada, growing, question, backyard, foresters, road, forested, urban, carbon 

SPEAKERS

Heather Schibli, Robin Collins, Michael Rosen, Sandy Smith, Peter Meineke, Metta Spencer, Robin

Metta Spencer  00:00

Hi, I’m metta Spencer. Today we’re going to do trees, and especially trees that grow in cities because I think that’s the most important project on my agenda today. And because on Saturday, there’s a meeting of the Pugwash group which I belong to, and I’m making a pitch for Canada’s public organization to take on the idea of promoting urban forestry is one of our big objectives. So I’ve invited some real foresters in who are going to help me sort out what people need to know in order to judge whether this is a reasonable proposal or not. So in a way, I’ve also invited all the Canadian public servants who want to, to join us and ask questions or argue with people if they if they have points of view. So I have some good good foresters here today, in Toronto here, my dear friend, Sandy Smith, who’s a professor of forestry. At least, we’re dear friends in the sense that I use you all the time, whenever an issue came at us. I appreciate that. And in Quebec is Michael Rosen, who is retired as an arborist. But he spent many years as the president of Tree Canada, a very worthy organization. And in Guelph is have Heather Schibli, who is a landscape architect and an ecologist, and she is an expert on me and lucky for us. And since the wonderful thing that the Miyawaki people do best is by teaching people how to make wonderful forests in small pieces of land in the city, the size of your bathroom, you can have a little forest. So I’m going to be drawing all these people to give some reflections on the potential value to Canada of investing in a big project to try to encourage millions of us to go plant some trees, especially in the cities. So let me let me say where I’m coming from, because a few years ago, I read an article – everybody in the world read that article – by an outfit the Crowder group in Switzerland, that went out and counted trees by various methods. They estimated that there are about 3 trillion trees on the planet today, and that we need about one more trillion in order to reduce global warming. Well, everybody got on the bandwagon, and indeed Canada promised to to plant an additional two billion trees. Well, that sounds really impressive. But if you realize a trillion is 1000 billion, and Canada is going to produce plant 2 billion, I’m sorry, two out of 1000 is not all that impressive, but we’re going to have to work hard to even make that commitment, because it’s not happening. Now, the question is, where do you put all those trees is the room for an additional trillion trees? Well, the Crowder people said yes, but they were counting the idea of having them growing in the Arctic, which is a very bad idea, because we know that the growth of trees in the Arctic has a net warming effect rather than cooling effect on the planet because of the albedo effect. That is,  the trees are darker than the snow around them, and therefore, they warm things. Also, Crowther said, Well, we’re not counting the space in cities or the farms because we got to leave agricultural land for farmers and city people to live. Well, that’s a bad idea. In my opinion, that’s just where we need to put trees — in the city because trees need to be cared for a couple of years in order to have a good prospect of survival. And that means that people have to look after them if you really want to improve the survival rate of your trees. And want to have trees where the people are, and besides, people need trees. And so we can do various things that use the agricultural land to plant them around. There are all kinds of great ways of using farmland without depleting your agriculture. And but the main thing that I think is: Let’s plant trees along the roads or anywhere where people go, and so that’s that was my starting point. I started calculating could we put 2 billion trees along in city areas where the Crowder people hadn’t even counted? Well, I think we need them. Cities are heat traps, and we need to have trees that will actually help cool the cities. In fact, the reality is that the amount of co2 that a brand new tree will capture isn’t I’m very much within 20 years. It takes a while for these trees to be grown up. So the most important thing we do to improve the quality or the amount of co2 in the atmosphere would be to save the trees that we already have. And big trees. We want to do that for sure. But we also need find ways in cities. Cities can be something like 10 degrees hotter than the countryside around them. So the trees can begin to cool the cities, even before they actually do much for us in terms of sequestering carbon. So there’s a lot of room in cities where we could plant trees, I think, especially lawns.  I would say, Let’s plant trees, really along both sides of every street and every road in the in Canada if we can. And we have to calculate how closely we can plant them together, and so on. But you’re not going to want to have a car within five or 10 years because there’ll be electric driverless taxis that will come and pick you up and drop you off, but they don’t park. So you don’t need all those parking spots. There are something like three or four parking spots for every car in Canada, which is going to free up an awful lot of space, if we put our minds to making sure that the law says we have to plant trees in them. So we can take these parking spots and turn them into forests. And for that, I think we want to ask somebody who knows how to make Miyawaki forest because they’re a wonderful use of small space in cities. We could get high school kids to go out and church groups and the yoga classes and all kinds of people to turn out. The government could say, okay, meet me at the corner of so and so at 10 o’clock. And we’ll have spades and trees and water and all the things you need to plant trees. So expect to spend an afternoon planting trees. And I calculated  – just my own crazy estimates as a completely uninformed person – I figured out that we could probably plant about a billion and a half trees this way, in addition to the ones that the government in Canada has promised to be planting in remote areas.They have a service that collects seeds, so we could get them to collect seeds and give trees to us and figure out where where we need to plant the right kind of trees and so on. This is not a radical idea, because I know that China did something like that with the Loess Plateau, which is home to 50 million people. And it’s been done in many other places. Stockholm planted 40,000 trees a few years ago, and they’re doing fine, thank you very much. So this is my my proposal that I want to get the Canadian Pugwash group to to support – at least to support a study of the idea and then we could do a real life cycle calculation of how many trees we can plant and how much co2 we can sequester that way and so on. Sandy, why don’t you start off.

Sandy Smith  08:19

I’m very supportive of planting trees. I work in forestry –always. For as long as I can remember, I’ve worked in forests. I started in the north and the boreal spent 15 or 20 years and now, I spent the last decades down here and based in Toronto, but urban forests, Southern Ontario. And I’m the type of person who defines an urban forest as anything south of the French River for those who are in Ontario.  I always have been supportive of planting trees. The problem is that we tend to get focused on the numbers. And I think trees are so much more than the number and you know, then we get into the semantics: Is an acorn actually a tree if it hasn’t sprouted yet? And is a seedling a tree or is it just the big old ones? I’m going to say we need as people to develop this a better relationship with trees because I think despite being Canadians, and thinking of ourselves as a forested nation, I think we tend to think of those trees as being somewhere else — someplace we go, to the cottage or hiking and camping or Banff National Park. It’s our vision, but I think we have a hard time actually relating to the everyday challenges of trees. There’s huge benefits that you know, in the last 10- 20 years it’s been getting more clearly quantified: the ecosystem, services but people still, when I speak with them that aren’t foresters, focus on the disservices — about how they have to rake up the leaves. And they have problems with the walnuts that drop and all these issues, which is about the relationship with nature, which we know is really important. So, my big point too, is yes, plant trees, but you do have to look after them. And it’s not just the first couple of years if you’re in an urban environment. And I include agriculture in that urban environment, because I think there are lots of opportunities there. But you do have to look after them.There’s lots of opportunity on private land. And I’ve been working with some corporations in the city in institutional lands; 60% of the urban forest is owned privately, whether it’s by individuals in their backyards, or institutions. And so I’ve been working with corporations to try and think about better ways to plant trees. So yeah, I’m on board.

 

Metta Spencer  11:13

Terrific. Okay. Michael Rosen. We haven’t really had much of a conversation about this yet. Is my proposal crazy?

 

Michael Rosen  11:22

Mmm hmm. That’s a kind of a planted question. Anyways. Metta. First of all, I want to congratulate you. I read most of the document you sent. I didn’t read the whole thing. But first, I looked at it and thought 36 pages Wow, that’s a lot of pages for me to read. But it’s really well done. And it’s really interesting. And, and yeah, the research is really good. And I liked the approach, it would appear that we need a lot of trees in our cities. Like Sandy mentioned, we’re blessed — or not blessed, depending how you look at it — with lots of trees, outside of our city, and we were the were the forest nation, but we’re not really a forest people. I spent a lot of my career as a forest. I’m a trained as a forester as well as an arborist. So, a lot of the emphasis was, well, if you want forest, you know, if you’re in Toronto, go a couple hours out of town, you’ll get all the forests you need. And then it became a trend recently, although it was reversed a bit with a pandemic, that people actually don’t seek their forest experience from going to a big provincial or National Park. Most of their forest experiences are the ravine, or it’s the backyard, or it’s the line of trees on the street. So it’s a nice thing that Canadians can think that they have all this forested area, but honestly,  the number of people who actually venture out there is kind of limited, although, the pandemic kind of changed that.  I’m not really sure.Algonquin Park is putting all these limits on who can visit the park. And some other parks are like that. Now,  I didn’t think the usership of those parks was serious. Well, the restrictions are more on the camping areas, I think, than anything else. But all this to say I guess you have a point in that the cities matter with regards to trees, unfortunately. Our cities were not created with trees in mind at all. They were created to facilitate the automobile. That’s, that’s the bottom line. So everything we do with trees in a city now, it’s a total retrofit. And it’s really expensive. And logistically, it can be really, really difficult. Take Toronto, say you’d land at Pearson, and  look around at Pearson and it’s like 80 –90% hard surface. I look at all this horrible, hard surface infrastructure that was created, not just for airplanes, but for automobiles. And my mind goes to when this can be nice with trees. Trying to put the trees in that area is is incredibly difficult, but but we’re not here to talk about what’s difficult. We’re here to talk about what’s possible, so I’m not I’m not going to dwell on that. Maybe this is where Heather comes in. It is possible to plant trees in hard surfaces. It just takes the right type of tree and lots of work to prepare the land and that sort of thing. But the argument around carbon sequestration in urban areas was always a tough sell for me, actually, because if you’re sequestering carbon with trees, there’s better places in the city to do that. Actually, your paper talks about it, you know, all this abandoned highway land. Although reforesting extra highway is problematic, we use a lot of salt and stuff that trees really, really don’t like. So that’s a  whole other book. But that can be easier than trying to rip up Dixon road to put in trees, that kind of thing. And then the other thing I’m just thinking of is that if we’re gonna talk about carbon sequestration,  the city is not the best way to do it. I think a better argument to use in the cities is not one of purely obviously carbon sequestration, but all the other benefits that trees can give. Yes, trees will sequester carbon in a city. Sometimes they don’t do it a lot because the tree has a hard timeestablishing itself and growing. And we all know these studies of what the average life of a city tree is. And it’s really low. I don’t know, it used to be seven to 10 years sort of thing was the average life of a of an urban tree. So how much carbon can you really sequester within seven or 10 years, you know, in a city? But if the argument is around the other benefits that are provided by urban trees, in addition to carbon sequestration, I think that’s a better sell, if you will. Does any of this help you at all, Metta?

 

Metta Spencer  17:26

Yeah, yeah. Well, the whole point of my proposal to Pugwash is that they study the issues and find out all the downsides and all the problems and what makes sense. And maybe some things don’t make sense so we’ll just change the proposal accordingly. So for that, I need a lot of good advice. And I’ll probably come back to both of you. But let’s get to Heather.

 

Heather Schibli  17:49

I agree fully with what Sandy and Michael are saying. There are issues in terms of where to place trees in urban settings because of utilities and problems with road salt, not enough soil volume for different areas and air pollution and all of that.  I’m a landscape architect, terrestrial ecologist and consulting arborist. I think, as an ecologist, why I find Miyawaki forest methods so exciting is that it’s looking at more of the community approach, as opposed to individual trees. So it’s a real shift away from kind of this legacy of colonial European landscape management practices, which is grass and an individual tree plunked kind of in between it, kind of harking back to the upper crust of of Europe when when North America was first colonized.  I think that’s totally antiquated. It’s outdated. And it’s not in keeping with where we need to be right now, especially given climate change. And also the general disconnect that our culture is experiencing between people, but also, especially between people and the land that we live on. So looking at a method of recognizing that trees, just like humans, are social creatures and evolved to live with other animals and plants. This kind of method of bringing, you know, the ones that we’ve done in Ontario, we loosely follow the methods so we don’t call it a Miyawaki forest, we call the “mini forest”  just because there’s some recommendations that come out of India that don’t necessarily fit the Canadian context, from our experience. But we do try to aim at putting an assemblage of species together that historically have evolved together. So it’s recognizing those communities that we see when we’re out inventorying forests in southern Ontario, central Ontario, Quebec. And it’s about nurturing that soil. Bringing that kind back to life and recognizing that we’re only seeing half of the reaction — mostly above ground, whereas most of what’s happening is below ground. So if you can bolster that and add health and diversity into that, there’s a better chance for this community to survive. So there’s a lot of opportunity to include these kinds of plantings in traditionally forested landscapes. I’m not proposing that we put these forests in Saskatchewan or other areas where it’s really tall grass, prairie and other types of ecosystems, but to fill up the landscape that’s been kind of devoted to grass. At these places where the only time anybody ever walks over the grass is to mow it, but it’s not used for anything else. So what you were saying, using these empty kind of forgotten spaces in between highways or along these shopping centers, strip malls or beside churches, in the back end of school yard — wherever there is an active place that’s not being utilized for something else, we should really be filling it back with trees, because that’s what this landscape wants to revert to anyway. And then we really need to get past this perception that our own personal properties are not part of the larger context. Because your backyard and your front yard are part of this landscape. And so, as stewards of the landscape, we should be really treating that in respect to other species. By planting native species, they are species that can can handle the kind of conditions that that site offers. I planted a mini forest in my backyard, and there’s close to 300 trees and shrubs and I’m downtown in Guelph, Ontariom so it’s a pretty small plot. In my front yard I have  Norway maple from the city.  I have a shade garden and a lot of woodland species that can kind of handle the shade of Norway maple. And I will use those seeds,  and populate my backyard once the seedlings in the back are big enough to support a shaded backyard. So I’m encouraging people to plant these in their back yards, because you’re not dealing with utilities and those kinds of issues in your back yard. And in your corner, go for it. This landscape needs to be forested again. Thank you. Okay, we have a couple of my friends here with us from the Pugwash group and I want to make sure that they both have an opportunity to ask questions or introduce their own concerns. Robin Collins?  

 

Robin Collins  22:57

 I would agree entirely that urban tree planting is a good thing in and of itself. But I would also agree that it will not be a major sequestration solution, just because of the scale. That doesn’t mean that the project isn’t worthy. But if the focus is on carbon sequestration, then other tree opportunities may be the ones to focus on. Michael’s comment about the average life of the urban tree — seven to 10 years or whatever he said, that’s news to me. But that’s really interesting. That also leads to where’s the best dollar for afforestation and reforestation.

 

Metta Spencer  23:59

Thank you. Let me ask if Peter Meineke has an issue.

Peter Meineke  24:03

Oh, hi. Sorry, my camera isn’t working. So you’ll have to put up with this talking black space. There’s always concern that people have had about using trees for removing carbon from the atmosphere. But I have a couple of other concerns. I have a lot of trees in my backyard, but I just lost a few of them during the last big storm we had. And when you look at the hurricanes and the effect of this strange law here in Ottawa that we can’t even book put a windmill in our backyard because of the problem with falling over or something like that. But we certainly have a lot of trees that have done a lot of damage to houses. And I guess that’s one of my concerns if we keep adding them. Maybe we’ve got better trees to do this with. I’m fascinated by bamboo. And are there other types of trees that actually absorb carbon faster than maples or whatever we normally have? 

Metta Spencer  25:33

I’ve heard hemp. 

Peter Meineke  25:36

Yeah, hemp. The idea of using people to look after the trees, I think is a great idea. I wonder if anybody would like to comment on this recent report concerning the the federal government’s analysis of the effect of trees. They claim that really, that the forests are not doing the job that the federal government says it’s doing.

Sandy Smith  26:08

I haven’t read this report specifically. So I can’t comment on it. 

Peter Meineke  26:17

And I’ve only read the news that came out this morning on it.

Sandy Smith  26:21

Mike, you might know, runner. In forestry is it’s really hard to make a complex topic simple. And to come back to carbon sequestration, I do think they’re important. And it’ll vary. Ask any scientist, and they’ll say, it depends on where they’re growing, and the species and age. And Mike, I might say, just to respond to a little bit that Robin picked up on the age of an urban tree. I think that’s older data that came from trees that we’re putting into planters on the streets,  so it’s not your average urban tree. As I said, 60% of the trees are on private land. It really is about root volume. If you look after your trees, you can have them reach a full size and live for a long time I’m thinking of Europe where you look after trees in very urbanized areas through pollarding, or other arboricultural systems so you can get them to sequester carbon. But for me as a forestry person, a professor and someone who works in the area? It is about multiple values — it’s the complexity of a tree that provides its great value. Yes, it does sequester carbon, of course, but it also does all these other services that society in this time in this place really seems to need. And to speak to Robin’s point, even lecturing to students this morning, just the relationship of people with the land and nature. There are situations where our boreal forests are going to release more carbon than they sequester. That’s the nature of the forest dynamics. But I don’t see where that negates the need or the desire or the benefit of putting in more trees.

Metta Spencer  28:46

Well, at least we know that they do cool. When we’re dealing with global warming, we’re actually talking about how much comfort there is for people walking around in the cities. And these trees can reduce the average temperature of a city by several degrees.

Sandy Smith  29:08

Probably so, in the shade versus the sun. I’ve done this several times living downtown at Spadina and College, and it’s 10 degrees cooler in the shade.

Metta Spencer  29:19

Which is worth worth a lot right there. That’s true. And I have a question about the size of the trees, I’m arguing for urban trees, but at the same time, obviously, the important thing is to be able to sequester carbon too. And that means that we need to protect big trees. Now what I’m wondering is, we see all these pictures of forests that have been chopped down, clear cut, and and it breaks your heart. You see these gorgeous old stumps of trees that are 10 feet in diameter — trees that have been made into toilet paper or something. It’s an egregious offence against everything we should care about. But what I’m wondering is, can’t they do a better job of removing dead trees from the forest, because clearly, when a tree has lived its full life expectancy, then of course, you want to take the wood and use it for something, especially if you can use it to store carbon indefinitely by making a building or furniture or something from it, so that it has useful value and doesn’t just get burned up to send that co2 back to the atmosphere. Is there a better way of logging that doesn’t do as much damage to the whole forest than what I’ve seen in the horror stories that I’ve been watching?

Michael Rosen  30:56

The forests are being logged according to a “silvicultural system.”  There are many silvicultural systems in place. And it’s all dependent on the type of forest, the shade tolerance of the trees. In nature, many of these forests that are clear cut, are actually shade intolerant. They are trees that in nature would have grown back after catastrophic natural events such as wildfire, insect infestation, or wind events. The clear cutting, with standards and in small, small patches, is an attempt, if you will, to imitate what nature would have done anyway. That being said, if you have a forest, that’s more of what we’re used to, in the southern parts of, say, Ontario and Quebec and all aged forests, then obviously, that type of silvicultural system does not make any sense and you’re forced to implement something that’s more of an all age system, which we would normally call a selection type system. And then, for some species of trees, not maples, and not beech, for instance, but more like your pines and your oaks, they are actually intermediate in tolerance, and it’s all about shade tolerance. And in those cases, there’s another silvicultural system that’s widely used, and it’s called the shelterwood system, which resembles something in between selection and clear cutting. So the way I look at it, Metta, is that it’s better than it ever has been, and that the standards are being applied now that are all party to a lot of third-party certification. There’s a number of systems that are set up — FSC and SFI and CSA and a bunch of others — which actually apply standards to the way forests are managed and give these forests a certification. Now, a huge percentage of Canada’s forests are subject to that third-party certification. So things that look bad to the human eye can actually just be –and I’m not excusing it, I’m just being real. I’m just stating that what’s reality can be a temporal disruption, and that in the long term,  forests are dynamic and replace themselves accordingly. Clear cutting is often equated to deforestation, but the two have actually nothing to do with each other. Because clear cutting is actually a recognized silvicultural system that when applied in the right way will regenerate force in perpetuity. In other words, clear cut forests will actually develop back into forests. Deforestation is something we see when we actually change the land use. So urban areas that people live in, farming, farmland, road construction, mining, that sort of thing, is a conversion from what was previously a forested use to something else. And that is really true deforestation. So in fact, in Canada, the amount of land that’s actually “deforested” is relatively small, and it’s limited to urbanization and agriculture and road construction — that sort of thing. Okay, but that being said, you mentioned one other thing about dead trees. And that’s a that’s an interesting one as well, because I consult with the residents and landowners on managing their woodlots and their forests and one of the biggest mistakes  a lot of people assume when they manage their forest is that they’re going to cut the dead trees. That’s a big piece of forest management and I’m forced to point out that it is not actually the best management strategy, because actually more biological activity in a dead tree than a live one. As far as biota goes, as far as insect mass and bird production, and all those sorts of measures, dead trees support much more biomass, much more biota than a live one. So, in fact, it’s a bit of a mistake to walk into a woodlot and cut all the dead trees. Many of them should be left for wildlife. And it’s really the live trees that warrant the cutting to manage properly, to let more light into the forest floor, to allow more age classes of trees to develop. Because, that’s part of a sustainably managed woodlot. Now, I’m not advocating that we do forest management on 100% of every forest everywhere. Besides, that’ll never happen, that’s not realistic. But for those people who want to manage for many purposes, you know, one of these silvicultural systems should be implemented.

Metta Spencer  36:21

Ouch, ouch. You’re really bothering me. What I know, is being reported as fact is that there’s still more reduction in forestry in the number in the coverage of the canopy of forests in the world now, than there is additional growth to this forest cover. So if we’re focusing on co2 removal, and we see trees as a mechanism of capturing and retaining carbon as long as they’re alive, then clearly, if you go and do a clear cut, you’re going to reduce the amount of co2  being sequestered by those trees, especially the big trees. You want to keep the big trees. If you replace them,  if you cut them all down and replace them with baby trees, it’s going to be many years before they’re able to sequester the amount of carbon that’s there. The other thing is, when a tree dies, that’s exactly when it stops sequestering carbon, but starts rotting and restoring the co2 back to the atmosphere. So I would have thought that that’s when you want to cut the thing and use it for some permanent durable product like furniture or houses if you’re just thinking about the co2 sequestration. The rest of your argument I can live with, but boy, it sure bothers me when I’m thinking about global warming. Because this this method of harvesting silviculture that you’re promoting doesn’t sound like it’s going to do much for our warming issue.

Sandy Smith  38:11

Could I could I jump in just very quickly?  I think what Mike’s talking about is what we do right now is and that’s forest management. Even in clear cutting, trees are cut at the peak growth. The growth is optimized. To come back to your argument, Metta, when growth is optimized, the amount of carbon being sequestered is proportional. So you’re at your optimal carbon sequestration when the tree is at its optimal growth. That is the window and you can correct me if I’m wrong on the specifics here, Mike. But that’s when you actually do cut them. You don’t want it to go into decline, and you don’t want it to slow down in its growth, because that’s when it’s not growing and it’s not sequestering carbon. So actually, the forest management strategies, even for clear cutting, you cut the trees when they’re sort ofjust at their prime or just going beyond it. 

Metta Spencer  39:15

So that has to do with metabolism. Clearly, a baby is metabolizing at different rate than an old person. But the amount of carbon or material that’s contained in a big thing is obviously going to be a lot more than is contained in a little thing. 

Sandy Smith  39:33

That’s why you want to cut it. That’s why you want to cut a, let’s say Jack pine at 80 years. Jack Biden could live over 100. But you cut it at 80 because it’s sort of like a mature adult. It stopped growing, it stopped, you know, bringing carbon in. It’s got lots of carbon stored and that’s exactly what you would do is say “Okay, this is when we take the carbon. It’s been sequestered. Now we will put it into furniture.” Toilet paper wouldn’t be the best use, probably.  We put it into buildings, we lock that carbon into place, so it doesn’t rot in the field.  Like when you’re

Robin  40:15

And you plant some more, that’s the point.

Sandy Smith  40:19

And you plant some more, which will take some time, another 80 years to get to where it needs to be. That’s exactly what we do. 

Metta Spencer  40:28

But the minute you cut it down and replant, you replace that tree with a baby tree that’s two feet tall. Yeah, you have reduced the amount of carbon being sequestered in the world by a huge amount.

Robin Collins  40:43

Well, no, because, if I’m not mistaken, the elderly trees are potential carbon emitter.  They actually release more carbon, so you want to get rid of the old ones. But you want to get them at their peak before they become problematic. So you cut them down can use that carbon that’s been collected and locked in for useful purposes. And begin again, with new trees that can now

Metta Spencer  41:14

Do you mean to say that the big, big tree like a huge Redwood or something, is emitting more carbon than it is containing?

Sandy Smith  41:25

It could be could be. It depends on what condition it’s in. If it has a lot of decay and rot, if it slowed down in growth of its broken branches, and all sorts. There’s some studies now going on in Haliburton forest; we’re looking at wood decay. And there’s quite a bit being emitted by trees that are attacked by diseases and in squirrels living in them. Every time there’s a wound or something that, the tree starts to emit. And the older it is, the more likely that’s to be the case. It will start releasing carbon. At what point is the balance of storing and releasing? This is what you’re asking about, Metta, is when does the balance happen? And that’s usually back to what foresters would say “optimal growth.” Like, you’re still young and healthy, and you’re storing carbon. I mean, you might let it go a little longer. But there’s some trade off. I don’t think we’ve ever looked at it that way. We usually look at the volume of wood. Wood is carbon. That’s what you’re trying to get. Carbon. Wood. 

Heather Schibli  42:39

Yeah, the question is, how is that wood that’s been harvested utilized,? Because if it’s used for burning, which is I think the number one use right now. So it really is like the afterlife, if you’re concerned about carbon sequestration. The other thing I just want to throw in is that trees are a lot more than just carbon sinks. And so that we don’t want to forget that like, even though they might, that curve might switch at a certain point in their lives from from collecting carbon to starting to release it, they’re doing a lot of other things, too. And we’re not only in a climate crisis, we’re in a biodiversity crisis. So it’s, it’s important to keep that in note, too, that those those heritage trees are very important.

Robin Collins  43:22

Yeah, it’s not an argument to cut down all the Redwoods.  You want to keep this stuff for aesthetic reasons. I mean, they’re the ones that everybody looks at. But we’re actually talking about the boreal forest or the Amazon or the taiga. These are the major sequesterers.

Sandy Smith  44:01

They have great potential because of the  land base that they occupy, especially in North America, and I presume the same in Russia. Back to the point Mike made about why we cut trees primarily. It’s not about forestry. It’s about agriculture. It’s about clearing land. And it’s exactly what we did here when we came to Canada or North America. First thing we did was start to clear the land. In fact, that’s how you got your property. As a pioneer here, you had to clear your land, or you didn’t own your your property. So the first thing you had to do was get rid of the trees so you could put your log cabin and start growing food and farming, to support communities. That’s what back to the colonial establishment. That’s what we’re still trying to do — take over the land. 

Metta Spencer  45:05

We do need still a lot of land for agriculture. So the general net direction is:  there may still be clearing land in order to feed the growing human population, which means that if we want to keep the amount of trees even standing, much less growing in the world, if we really want to get an extra trillion trees, we’ve got to find someplace else to put them. And that needs to be, I think, in urban areas or along roads, in the countryside. I don’t know where else you can do it because the Crowder people were expecting these growths, these increases in number of trees, largely to take place in the Arctic, which is a terrible idea. They did not say they encouraged people to plant them there, but they didn’t caution people about the dangers of having trees in the Arctic. And there’s this wonderful book called Tree line where a guy went around all around the countries in the Arctic and looked at where the trees are growing. And it’s really a very serious problem. Anyway, the thing is, if we want to keep steady the number of trees that we have in the world while we have to continue clearing land in order to make agricultural off the fields, then we have to put them into an urban areas — or at least what you call urban, which most people would not call urban, that is, along country roads and expressways and that sort of thing. Am I wrong?

Michael Rosen  46:59

No, you’ve brought you brought it around really well, Metta, to the urban. You’ve done a really good job at that. And you’re absolutely correct. I think that’s the way to go. There’s also what I would call abandoned agricultural land or marginal. It’s abandoned for a reason. And actually, I think I’m not an agrologist, but I think we’re getting much better at our efficiencies in agriculture. So I don’t know, I think we need less land because we’re able to grow so much more food per hectare of land. I’m seeing this around where I live. I’m involved now in a very small project owned by a land trust, were near the Gatineau Park in western Quebec. And it’s a classic marginal agricultural land. It’s not really that productive. One field very sandy, one field clay, and the owners decided to put it back into trees, and it’s going to be an amazing project. It’s going to be so much more beneficial for the environment. And there’s space for 10,000 trees, not not according to maybe how Heather would plant it but anyway, it’s it’s a lot. So there’s a lot of marginal farmland as well. With the 2 billion tree program of the federal government, it actually is difficult to find sites to plant trees. It’s kind of ironic. We’re sitting here thinking we need more trees. The government is actually giving people money to do that, and people are still having trouble coming up with sites to plant trees. 

Metta Spencer  48:47

Well, I would have to take issue with whether we’re getting better and better at farming. Certainly we’re doing more and more industrial farming, but the overall effect is that we’re depleting the soil worse than we ever were before. So that is one of the other projects I’m promoting in this Pugwash thing.  The idea is using soil amendments such as biochar and rock dust and seaweed extract both as a way of improving the productivity of the soil as well as sequestering carbon. But unless we do that, I think the overall net effect globally is that, as somebody wrote (and I wouldn’t say this is absolute gospel truth) that we have something like 60 more crops in the soil now because it’s all being washed away or depleted or otherwise ruined. The soil is being ruined unless we do something to restore its quality. And that’s why I’m promoting the other thing. So I do think that, by all means, we want to use a marginal land and improve it and there are certainly ways of improving the soil with regenerative agriculture, which I think is absolutely important thing as well. But I still think that the that this needs to be complemented (and I don’t think you’ve disagreed with me really) with urban forestry in terms of sequestering co2. But we can make life much more habitable in cities by having cooler cities and better maintenance of the of the water in the soil the health of the of the atmosphere, the air that we breathe. There are a lot of other other benefits that come from having a lot of trees in cities. And I think any of you oppose the general idea of trying to find ways of improving the  urban forestry in Canada? If you’re against it, I want to hear it. But 

Robin Collins  51:06

wouldn’t, I wouldn’t. The question to me is not whether growing trees in urban settings or in suburbia or along highways is a bad thing. It’s not.  It’s a good thing. For me, the question is: Will it substantially contribute to the sequestration problem? That’s the question. And I don’t think it will significantly — at least not urban.  I think there are some other projects — saving the Amazon forest.  Some have argued that in 20 to 50 years the the earth would recover its own forests through simple biological succession on its own if we didn’t get in the way of it. And there’s pretty good evidence that human planting is not necessarily the best way of doing it, for many reasons. But I think there are places where human planting is absolutely useful at this point in time, because we need to spur the the reestablishment of forests and sometimes you need human planting, even along Amazon forest destruction areas. You need human help to get that started back up again. But the urban forest project, as written, I believe, is not a bad project. It’s not a major or significant contributor to the sequestration issue in my vie. It’s a good idea on its own for other reasons. 

Metta Spencer  52:54

I think in 50 years or so when these trees grow, they will actually sequester more carbon than in the first few. I was looking for things that we can do within five years that will make a difference. And you’re absolutely right. This plan will not increase the amount of carbon sequestration within five years, no matter what we do. It has other benefits that are really worthwhile. And eventually, it will be helpful, maybe not as helpful as we would like or as we need. So we have to use other methods. But

Sandy Smith  53:40

Yes. I don’t know if you are going to solve the crisis. We’re in a crisis we’re asking what grows slowly to solve it for us. I mean, back to Peter’s mention of bamboo etc. If you really want carbon sequestration, you can grow for that. It’s no different than any other product that gets produced. And we kind of do that the thing in Canada. We grow forests on the natural land base. But I came originally from agriculture. You go well, why aren’t we — like bamboo, grow it in plantations? Or poplar. Grow it  fast, cut it, store the wood or lock it into biochar, take the carbon. I think we’re not very creative or innovative and we’re kind of locked into what we do. I mean, all the other benefits of forests — the diversity and all these other great benefits. I don’t know as they’ll come out of our plantation forests. People don’t seem to like plantation forests, but hey, that’s what we’re doing to agriculture. I think it’s being more honest and if you want to grow trees for carbon, then you can do it. Can you solve the crisis? No, but it’s certainly not going to hurt. And if anything, it will help.

Metta Spencer  55:14

Suppose we try your thing with bamboo or hemp. I don’t know that bamboo grows well in Canada. But at any rate, where would we put bamboo forests? 

Sandy Smith  55:26

I’m not advocating bamboo forests, actually. It’s a non-native plant. I don’t really want to

Heather Schibli  55:32

Poplars if you want to do that. I wanted to say that there is no one magic bullet. We seem to be very attracted to these like, “Oh, this is the solution that’s going to solve all our problems?” That’s not the case. There’s not one move that’s going to solve this. It’s all the little things, just like how we’re in this state, because of the 1000 cuts that we have thrown at the systems that were functioning on this planet for millennia. So I think it’s just recognizing that we all have a small contribution. And it’s okay, if your idea isn’t going to be the panacea for getting past this climate crisis. 

Metta Spencer  56:22

Okay, we could have a whole conversation about whether we want to wait and see if everybody does things like, turn off the lights and ride bicycles. But I think we have to look for things that have a lot of mileage. And these have big enough effects on the quality of life —  including, by the way, production of food.If we plant a lot of fruit trees and nut trees in urban areas, that actually could help a lot, not because Canadians are going hungry, but in a lot of countries it would make a difference. Anyway, we do need to prioritize in terms of where we’re going to put our main energy. I have four things that I think are important enough to  focus on that will make an impact within five years. I agree with you that urban forestry is not going to have an impact on sequestering carbon within five years. But it will make some difference — a little bit — in several years. And in the meantime, there are a lot of other benefits. So I’m sticking by my original proposal.

Sandy Smith  57:36

Okay, and I said I support it. I do. I mean, it’s never wrong to plant trees!  Will there be issues? Probably.  And will it solve all your problem? No, it won’t be the whole solution to everything, but it’s never wrong. And we will need those trees for something in the future. We’ll need them. And right now, carbon is one of the pieces. I just think we lack creativity on how to do this. 

Metta Spencer  58:07

Let’s think about what kinds of trees and where and how many we can do and all of that stuff. I’d like to get down eventually to some real specifics of what we can do and how much it’s going to cost and who’s going to do the work and how long they have to water the trees. And what about the bugs? 

Sandy Smith  58:28

You have to water them forever. 

Metta Spencer  58:32

Because getting from here to there is a big problem in terms of logistics and practical things. So I’m probably going to get back to you with other questions if you are willing to give it a little thought sometime. Thank you. Okay, blessings, thank you very much. And bye see you another time. Take care. Bye for now.  These conversations are produced by Project Save the World. This is episode number 514. You can watch or listen to them as audio podcasts on our website https://tosavetheworld.ca. People share information there about six global issues and to find a particular talk show, enter its title or episode number in the search bar, or the name of one of the guest speakers. Project Save the World also produces quarterly online publication, Peace <agazine. You can subscribe for $20 Canadian per year. Just go to PressReader.com on your browser. And in the search bar enter the word peace. You’ll see buttons to click to subscribe.

Episode 486 A Diplomat for Dissidents

Episode 486 A Diplomat for Dissidents

Host: Metta Spencer

SUMMARY KEYWORDS

putin, russia, people, war, ambassador, sanctions, ukraine, russians, world, russian, government, dissidents, moscow, support, years, hear, united states, polling, important, policy

SPEAKERS

Metta Spencer, Michael McFaul

Metta Spencer: Hi, I’m Metta Spencer. Today we have a real treat. We get to talk with Michael McFaul, who was the United States Ambassador to Russia from 2012 to 2014. He’s now a professor at Stanford and the director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. Good morning, Michael, how are you?

Michael McFaul: I’m fine. Thanks for having me.

Metta Spencer: Good. You said we can only spend half an hour and I have 100,000 questions I’d like to ask you. But let me ask you this as an informed person: Can anybody stop Putin? Is there anybody in his entourage who might be interested in trying to constrain this man, if he wants to do something even more destructive than he’s doing now? This war was bad enough. But you know, he might use a nuclear weapon. Today, for example, the head of the IAEA says that the Zaporizhzhya plant is out of control and they’d better send some experts in. This an emergency. Suppose he doesn’t do it. Suppose he just says, Let it go. Is there anybody who can stop this man?

Michael McFaul: That’s a big hard question and I don’t have an easy answer. If I were making a list, I would say the person that’s most likely to stop them is President Zelenskyy of Ukraine. And stopping him, to me, means stopping his invasion and the progress that his army is making inside Ukraine. Tragically, I don’t see another way to bring the war to an end. The way a lot of wars end is either one side wins or there’s a stalemate on the battlefield. So, there’s nothing unique to this situation.                               

But you’re implying a second question that’s harder: Is there anybody inside his government – a general, a former KGB guy? And I don’t think so. I used to know his entourage, his inner circle, pretty well. That was my job – to meet with them and interact with them. Obviously, I used to interact with President Putin too. And the structure of that regime today (not 20 years ago, by the way; it was very different two decades ago) but today there’s one guy at the top: President Putin.  Everybody around him owes their fortune or their position to him. He understands that he set that up over many, many years, so there’s not a lot of autonomy with respect to the people within his government, and most certainly not within economic society. 

I think there’s a lot of false hope expressed in the West: “Let’s sanction the oligarchs, the rich business people in Russia. Then they will get mad and go to Putin and say, ‘Stop your war so I can get my yacht back.'” That’s not the way their system works. Those closely around him who have been enriched by him – say, the head of the oil company there, Rosneft – that’s a good example. The head of that is named Igor Sechin. I met Igor Sechin in the spring of 1991 – when I met Vladimir Putin, in fact. So I’ve followed his career for a long time. He’s not the CEO of the Russian oil company because he’s a business person, or because he’s figured out how to make state-owned companies profitable. He’s the CEO because Putin appointed him to that job. So, he doesn’t have any leverage vis a vis Mr. Putin to say, “Stop this war.”  And then there’s a second category of oligarchs. They’re mostly the people who made their money in the ’90s. They get a lot of attention in the American press, because they’re the ones whose yachts are being seized and they’re on the sanctions list – and, by the way, rightly so in my view. I have nothing against that action in terms of the US government or the Canadian government or the EU, by the way. The Canadians are usually leading the charge on all of us. But I think there’s a misconception about their political influence over Mr. Putin. He actually doesn’t care about these people. He’s happy to see their yacht seized, and the idea that they’re going to leverage him or influence him to stop the war or even in a more grave situation like you talked about, suggest to not use nuclear weapons. Tragically, I think those are decisions that Putin himself will make.

Metta Spencer: Well, there was a time when this guy Stanislav Petrov refused to obey orders and saved the rest of us. We’re alive today because of him. He just plain wouldn’t do what he was told. Now, when I was going to Russia long ago, even before Gorbachev’s day, I was being invited by the Soviet Peace Committee. We would sit at the table and have conferences. They acted as if I had some influence or something. But anyway, they would give their regular line, but then we’d go for coffee and they’d go “Yeah, Yeah!  That’s right! Keep it up.” I found that, within the Party, there was a huge component of people who were really on our side but didn’t want to show it at the time. I called those guys “termites.” In fact, of course, Gorbachev turned out to be the leading termite. So now, is there anything that you have discovered where (wink wink, nudge nudge) “we in Putin’s entourage really are on your side? And we’ll do what we can eventually to get you there?”

Michael McFaul: Again, another tough question that I don’t have an easy answer to. I think the history that you hinted at, including your own history, is an important lesson. I think we now know in retrospect, that those kinds of contacts between nongovernmental organizations, academics, especially the nuclear scientists, during those periods did have an influence. They helped end the Cold War. They helped everybody to calm down. And after the Cuban Missile Crisis, where we came close to a nuclear war, on both sides, there were rational people who said, “We need to figure out ways to avoid these worst-case scenarios.” And we developed some crisis management, crisis prevention mechanisms, sometimes through the government, sometimes through these non-governmental channels. 

I think there are important lessons for us to learn from that period. By the way, both for managing our relations with Russia today, but also for China today, because the Chinese don’t know those lessons. And I’m thinking about, you know, what’s happening around Taiwan right now. We should go back and learn those lessons from the Cold War. They were important mechanisms that helped avoid catastrophic disaster, and in some channels of communication really helped for breakthroughs with regard to ending the Cold War, the nuclear arms agreements that started during that time and continued until the last one that we did. I was part of that team, the New START Treaty. Those are important lessons to re-learn, because I think we’ve forgotten them. 

Now with respect to Russia, today, I am nervous that we don’t have much connectivity with the Russian government and with Russian society, even compared to when I was ambassador a decade ago. You can agree to disagree, and most certainly I have many meetings with the Russian government where we spend most of it disagreeing. But what we can’t have happen, and what I’m worried about – because we don’t have much interaction these days – is a crisis that spins out of control because of misperception, because of misunderstanding. 

When I was ambassador, I used to say to my team all the time: “We’re going to have disagreements with the Russians, and our job is to manage them. But we can’t have disagreements based on bad information or misperception.” And I worry today that because there’s so little interaction, Vladimir Putin himself is quite isolated today. Even before COVID, he was very isolated. He didn’t spend a lot of time in Moscow. He spent most of it out at his house. But since COVID, he’s been even more isolated, that worries me and military-to-military dialogue, intelligence-to-intelligence dialogue, those were things we learned to do at earlier phases that we’re not doing now and we should be doing more of those things today. 

To your termite metaphor (that’s a great one) I would say, I’m on the sanctions list. I was on the sanctions list starting in 2014. So after going to Russia in the Soviet Union pretty much every year from 1983 to 2014, I obviously haven’t been back in eight years’ time. I think your listeners might be surprised at how many times I do interact with Russians, including those close to the government, sitting out here in Palo Alto, because of the long-standing relationships I have. And my impression, but I want to emphasize it’s an impression, not a scientific statement, is that there’s very, very few people in Russia today who think this war was a good thing. Maybe Putin does.

Metta Spencer: Really?

Michael McFaul: Yeah, maybe Putin does. But most of his government do not. Most certainly none of the economic elites do. They think it’s a huge disaster that will have long term negative consequences for the Russian economy. And I mean, decades of negative consequences, not just the short-term sanctions. 

Does the Russian military support it? I doubt it. I think that if you read in the tea leaves, this was an assessment about this was going to be a cakewalk and they were going to greet us as liberators!  This reminds me of things we heard in the run up to the war in Iraq. That intelligence assessment turned out to be radically wrong. And you hear some blaming between the intelligence services on the one hand, and the military on the other. The Russian military has taken devastating losses. They are not performing the way they were supposed to, according to what it looked like on paper. And remember, if you’re a general in Russia before this war, you’ve been enjoying massive spending over the last two decades under Vladimir Putin’s rule. Those were good times for you. And you fought these little wars every now and again, right? The Georgia 2008. Ukraine 2014, Syria with the air force 2015. And those were wins for you, but not facing very challenging opponents. This war is very different. They’re facing a real army with real capacity, with real will to fight. And if you’re a Russian general, this is not bringing any glory. And by the way, the way they’re fighting it, too, is also not bringing glory. Ukrainians attack military arsenals, they attack arms depots. Russians are attacking civilians. Okay, publicly, they have to say this is what we have to do. I don’t know of a real soldier that wants to actually attack civilians. So, I don’t think it’s very popular in the elite Russian military. And then in society, I would say, this is hard to measure. Take opinion polls with a grain of salt.

Metta Spencer: Well, Levada (and Levada is the last halfway trustworthy group) would say 75%, or 80% favor Putin’s moves.

Michael McFaul: Yeah, well, let’s break that down a little bit. I know Levada well.  I’ve worked with all the polling agencies, Yuri Levada was a friend of mine before he passed away. You know what they’re not telling you? That the respondents are not responding to their polls. I hear, through my circles, it could be as high as 80%. So, if 80%, when they get the message in the poll, are not responding, you’re only getting a sample of those that want to respond. And we know from our own polling here in the United States, that’s why we our polling firms keep missing the Trump voters because the Trump voters say we don’t want to respond to your polls. So, we need to be very careful when we look at those numbers. If 80% are literally hanging up the phone, or not answering the email, that’s a pretty skewed poll. That’s number one. 

Number two, just to remind everyone, Russia is a police state. Everybody knows that their phones and their emails are being reviewed. Suppose you’re out there in Vladivostok and a complete stranger in a society with zero trust calls you from Moscow. In your mind, Moscow means Putin. He calls you up and says, “What do you think of the special military operation?”  And you know that you can go to jail 15 years just for using the word “war.” There’s only one rational response to that. Why would you go out of your way to express disapproval? That’s a very dangerous thing you would be doing. So, I just think there’s a lot more quiet opposition to what’s going on. They hate the sanctions too, by the way. Let’s be clear. They’re very upset at Americans right now. I experience that every day. They feel that we are unjustly sanctioning them for things that they have nothing to do with because they live in an autocracy. But enthusiasm for the war? I think it is actually pretty low. 

And here’s one more data point, just to think about. I used to do polling in Russia and I’m a consumer of it to this day. There is a really clear pattern of who supports Putin and who doesn’t, even before the war. The more educated you are, the more urban the place you live, the richer you are, and the younger you are, the more likely that you don’t support Putin, and you don’t listen to his television programs, talking about the war. By the way, that’s a pattern we see in the United States as well. Whereas the more rural voters, the less educated, older, poor, those are the people that do support the war. We know that to be true. Pretty robust data about –

Metta Spencer: The war! Oh, I thought you were going to talk about supporting Trump.

Michael McFaul: Well, that’s the same correlation. The demographics of Trump voters and Putin voters are actually quite similar. But I would say, I’m –

Metta Spencer: Sorry, but that’s so ironical! Because Trump is like Putin’s pet dog. So, the idea that these people support the war against Russia is bizarre. I mean, there’s cognitive dissonance there!

Michael McFaul: Maybe I wasn’t clear! They support Putin’s war against Ukraine. I want to be clear. They support Putin. But in their demographics, the Putin electorate looks a lot like Trump’s electorate. Very similar. Within that, though, it’s important to think about who’s really active and who’s not. And I would encourage your listeners to go look at the numbers. I don’t have them off the top of my head, but those who actually watch Russian state television, it’s like 20 million or so. Twenty million is a big number. But then go look at Aleksei Navalny’s YouTube stations. You know how many people watch that? About 20 million! So, when I hear that all Russians are supporting Putin and I then go and look up the numbers for Navalny’s channel! You know, to watch Navalny’s channel in Russia, number one, it takes a VPN, and two, you have to be nervous about that. And yet millions of Russians are tuning in to Navalny’s team and not the Russian state television. It suggests to me that it might be a little more complex than the conventional wisdom states.

Metta Spencer: Fascinating. You were unique in getting under Putin’s skin when you were the ambassador. I was always hearing about how much he hated you. You say you’re persona non grata or you couldn’t visit Russia. Is that true of other former ambassadors and diplomats or did you just have a particularly bad relationship with him?

Michael McFaul: Well, in my role I didn’t have much of a relationship with him. I want to be clear about that. Ambassadors don’t have relationships with presidents of Russia.

Metta Spencer: He obviously didn’t like you. There were all kinds of signs of that.

Michael McFaul: Well, but let me explain it. I arrived as the US ambassador in January 2012 – right when there were massive demonstrations inside Russia to protest a falsified vote that the entire world, including my boss at the time, Secretary Clinton, says was not a free and fair election. And so, when I arrived right when that was happening, Vladimir Putin and his propaganda channels said that people were protesting against that election because they were supported by President Obama, Secretary Clinton and me. And that was my fate. 

It was additionally complicated by the fact that some of the people who were leading those demonstrations were friends of mine from 20 years before, Boris Nemtsov being one of the most important figures at the time. He was later assassinated. And so, they thread that together and talked about the fact that I knew Boris Nemtsov and that was why they attacked me. 

want to make sure people understand: You don’t go to Moscow as the US ambassador and just pop off on Twitter about your personal point of view, or get on TV and say, “This is what I think.” No, I represented the United States of America, President Obama. I’d worked for him for three years at the White House before I was ambassador. In the State Department we had one policy. We didn’t have a McFaul policy versus the rest. But when there were human rights abuses inside Russia, it was our policy to speak out against them. Putin didn’t like that and that was my job. It was my fate that I had to endure his attacks. 

I did hear from people in the West – sometimes other ambassadors – who would say, “You know, Mike, you’re overreacting. Putin is not such a bad guy. You know, that Navalny guy, he deserves to go to jail. You know, Pussy Riot, they got two years in prison. Why are you speaking out about that? You know, let’s just try to keep calm about Vladimir Putin.” Some people in my country blamed me personally for the breakdown in US-Russian relations. 

I would just remind people: That was a decade ago.  It was long after I left Moscow that Putin invaded Ukraine. That’s when he used his air force to bomb innocent civilians in Syria. That’s when he intervened in our elections in 2016, 2018. He tried to kill Mr. Skripov in the UK. And then, this year, he invaded in this catastrophic tragedy for the world, Ukraine. Those are all events that happened well after the things I was talking about. So, the idea that somehow I was responsible —

Metta Spencer: You were certainly vindicated. He did you a favor. If you wanted to be proved right, he certainly helped you. 

Michael McFaul: I didn’t actually answer one question. To the best of my knowledge there was an ambassador before me who was kicked out of the Soviet Union. That’s persona non grata. He said something comparing Nazi Germany to Stalin’s Soviet Union, and he was asked to leave the country. His name was George Kennan, a rather famous man.

Metta Spencer: Oh! Kennan was kicked out? I didn’t know that!

Michael McFaul: In 1950. For something he said on the tarmac in Berlin, criticizing Stalin. I think I’m the only other US ambassador, going all the way back to John Quincy Adams (he was our first ambassador) who has been put on the sanctions list. But they just released some new sanctions, so maybe some of my former colleagues have now joined me, I don’t know for sure.

Metta Spencer: Our networks overlap a little bit. It’s not only academic. I’ve worked with people who are friends of yours, but also I hang out with dissidents so I know a lot of Russian and Ukrainian dissidents. And I know that those people know you, because they have been invited to Stanford to various workshops that you have hosted over the years. And my impression is that you are sympathetic to people who want a more radical rule of law, and would like to do away with the current policy of declaring it immoral and illegal for one country to support a group of people in another country. For example, I think we ought to work to overcome this whole rule against assisting dissidents in Russia or any place else that need dissidents. This is global. It’s not just the Russians who do it. On the books anyway, the US has a similar law, though it’s not imposed as radically. I think we ought to abolish that and try to encourage more opportunities for people in one country to support people in another. What’s your take on that? I’ve told you mine now.

Michael McFaul: Well, I’d say a couple of things. You’re right. I run a large research institution here at Stanford. It’s about 500 people, by the way. It’s a big operation and we work on many things. We work on global health, climate change, cyber technology, nuclear weapons, but we have one of our centers (it’s called the Center on Democracy, Development and Rule of Law) that tries to understand the relationship between those three things. So first and foremost, as an academic institution our mission is to understand the world and explain it, and then teach our students about it. So that’s the first thing we do. 

But in addition, we do have a kind of applied mission statement. I run FSI – the Freeman Spogli Institute  – which tries to translate scientific knowledge into policy outcomes. We do that through a lot of modalities. Sometimes we have our people go work in the government like I did. That’s a way to translate academic ideas into policy. Other times we try to publish things to reach broader publics. But we also have this training mission that you hinted at. In fact, one of the reasons I have to jump off right now is that we have what’s called the Draper Hills Summer Fellows Program, where we bring activists. We had to go online during COVID, of course, but this year, for the first summer after three years, we’re in person. And this year, we have 31 activists, “small d democrats” I call them, from all over the world, not just Russia. They come together for three weeks. And our sessions today are about the problems in American democracy. 

By the way, they’re offering some advice to us on how we can improve our democracy. They have experience with getting people to believe that elections are free and fair. That’s a big challenge we have here in the United States, so we have things we can learn from other countries on that front. But the idea is, let’s learn from each other. We bring them together so they can learn from each other. They don’t need Stanford professors to do that. They learn in conversation with each other. You call it assistance. I call it education, but philosophically I agree with you. 

I’m a citizen of the world, I’m an independent person. It doesn’t matter what’s the color of my passport. On my reading list here at Stanford, I don’t just include authors from the United States, that would be absurd; we don’t do that. And I think it is absurd for other countries to try to limit knowledge that way. Solidarity between those that have shared values is a is a norm that we should all aspire to. And I want to say very consciously that it has to be a two-way street. I want “small d democrats” from Kenya, and Belarus and Tunisia and Nigeria. Those are just a few of the countries we have here today. I want to hear their voices about American democracy. We all believe in universal values, so it should be a two-way street.

Metta Spencer: I wish we could go on because I’d love to talk to you about the kinds of vision you have, or that are emerging in your institute about the future of democracy. I am concerned because I think that, globally, democracy’s just in terrible shape.

Michael McFaul: It is. 

Metta Spencer: And we have to make some extraordinary changes, including at the level of the United Nations. I think Putin has turned over the chessboard. Things that weren’t working very well before clearly are not going to work at all anymore. So we have –

Michael McFaul: We agree on that. And my colleague, Larry Diamond, who just spoke here, talked about the 16th year of democratic recession the world’s in. But let’s come back. Let’s do that another time with some of my other colleagues who are even more expert than I am.

Metta Spencer: Give my regards to Larry

Michael McFaul: Okay, thanks for having me. 

Metta Spencer: It’s been fun. 

T248. Werbos, Computers, and God

Saving Antarctica’s Ice

Saving Antarctica's Ice

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number: 284
Host: Metta Spencer

SUMMARY KEYWORDS

ice sheet, antarctica, glaciers, icebergs, curtain, people, greenland, ice, melting, warm water, ice shelf, antarctic, glacier, ocean, flow, engineering, deep, troughs, benefit, water

SPEAKERS

Peter Wadhams, Paul Beckwith, Metta Spencer, John Moor



Synopsis: Roald Sagdeev led scientists in Gorbachev’s USSR; Frank von Hippel was his counterpart in the US. They worked together to reduce the risk of nuclear war.

Please note this transcript has been edited. 

Metta Spencer  00:00

Hi, I’m Metta Spencer, Well, should we go to Greenland? Or do you want to go to Antarctica today? You get your pick, because we’re going to try to save some ice. It seems that the ice cover of Greenland and Antarctica has been melting way too fast and we have to do something about it. So, we have today a conversation between specialists on this topic. There’ll be a third person joining us in a bit. We’re going to talk about how we can keep all of that ice from melting and running off into the ocean. The person who thinks he knows how to do that is John Moore, who is based right now in Lapland in Finland, and normally teaches at a normal university of Beijing in China, where he was directing a program of geo-engineering. And he sounds sort of Canadian with a British accent. I don’t know. Where are you really from, John?

John Moore  01:55

I’m from Britain,

Metta Spencer  01:56

I thought there was a little British in there. Well, you got another Brit here with you. And that’s Peter Wadlow. He’s not in in Britain, either. I think he’s in Turin, Italy, aren’t you, Peter?

Peter Wadhams  02:09

Yes. I left for the past three years. Ever since Brexit.

Metta Spencer  02:20

Good thinking! Peter Wadhams is a professor at Cambridge University, but he spends a lot of time climbing around on the glaciers in Greenland. And I think he’s also seeing some glaciers out his window in the Alps of northern Italy. Isn’t that right? Yes. Well, now the thing that intrigued me was that somebody sent me a copy of a column by Gwynne Dyer, a wonderful journalist that I’ve met several times in the past and like very much. He wrote about an innovation – or at least a proposal for an innovation – by, I think, John Moore. I’m going to ask John Moore to tell us how you propose to save the ice and keep it from running off from Greenland and Antarctica. Please give us a little preview of this and then I will ask Peter what he thinks.

John Moore  03:32

Okay, thank you. I will just introduce the idea with a few slides. So this was the start of the idea. Everybody has probably come across these kinds of curtains that are used to separate rooms with different temperatures, like a cold room or something like that. But you can go in and out with a vehicle or walking without needing to open the door. And this is how it would work, actually, in the ice sheet. So you have a glacier. And you have a curtain that’s anchored with concrete at the base to the sea floor and floating in the water column. And the interesting thing is that the ocean is stratified, and the warm water is at the bottom rather than the top because it’s salty. So it’s very heavy. 

So you have a glacier and of course it’s it can calve icebergs. We want something that is flexible, like a tree branch or something. It’s not destroyed by any physical thing. So yes, an iceberg can come along and push this curtain aside. And after the iceberg is gone, it springs back into its original position. 

Now, why this works is that the ice sheets – I’m talking about Greenland or Antarctica – lose ice, mostly through narrow outlet glaciers that are incised deeply into the bedrock. And if you can basically put the plug back into the, into the bathtub, which is the ice sheet, it’s a lot easier to keep that water in the bathtub than constantly filling it up with a watering can. And so, this is the idea: that you would have leverage by applying an intervention to perhaps a few percent of the entire coastline of Greenland or Antarctica, where most of the ice is flowing out, and which is the most susceptible for catastrophic loss of the ice sheet. So, you have enormous leverage by focusing on these particular areas. The kinds of material that we would use are rather similar to what’s called geo-textiles that have been used in buildings fairly commonly for a long time. Now, for example, there’s a material called high modulus polyethylene, which is 15 times more resistant to abrasion than steel. It’s effectively inert in water, and very low coefficient of friction. 

Metta Spencer  07:10

That’s what you’re going to make these curtains from?

John Moore  07:14

Yes, that’s right. So, you have a concrete foundation. And then you have this plastic thing. There’s no structural strength, this is not holding back the ice sheet. This is simply slowing the melting by blocking access,

Metta Spencer  07:29

And you hold it in place with balloons or something that can easily be pushed aside.

John Moore  07:36

Exactly. Not balloons but, for example, fiberglass pipes that can be filled with air. They supply a lot of buoyancy and have tremendous tensile strength. So where would we do this? We wouldn’t need to do it all the way around Greenland, all the way Antarctica. You focus on the particularly vulnerable areas. On  this map here you can see highlights in red. Those areas are losing mass rapidly in Antarctica, and in fact, it’s confined to a handful of glaciers in this sector called the Amundson Sea around here. And if we zoom in in this box, we can look at the flow speeds in red and blue – fast-flowing glaciers. The key areas are Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers. People may have heard of Thwaites glacier; it’s been called the Doomsday Glacier in some articles because it’s actually on bedrock that is below present sea level,so, if you remove the ice sheet, you wouldn’t have a continent. You’d have a few islands poking out of the sea. That’s an unstable configuration for the ice sheet. We’ve got the continental shelf here, the deep ocean, and the continental shelf actually gets deeper as you go inland. These blue colors are deeper than this kind of yellow.

Metta Spencer  09:27

Excuse me. Now this yellow area, that’s still ocean, right?

John Moore  09:31

Yeah, this is the sea floor.

Metta Spencer  09:35

On this map, where’s the edge of the ocean? Where’s the land?

John Moore  09:40

Well, this is the coastline. We’ve got the glaciers in white, and the floating parts of the ice shelves are in this kind of translucent color here. Yes, and so this glacier over here and Pine Island place here, up here.

Metta Spencer  10:06

All of the colored area is underwater?

John Moore  10:10

That’s right, the whole colored area’s underwater. It’s been mapped by ships and sonar and submarines that can go under the ice. So, what people have found only very recently is that the warm water that’s flowing on the bottom, as I said, because it’s very heavy and dense with salt, that is largely confined in these troughs. And they are relatively narrow. These pink arrows show the warm water pathways underneath the floating glaciers, ice shelves to the parts where the glazier goes off the land and starts to float. So, if you can somehow stop that warm water in these deep troughs, from accessing underneath the glacier, you will slow down the rate of melting very dramatically. So now, if we have a look at cross-sections, through these warm water pathways, when you’re outside, when you’re far away from the from the ice out here, in the continental shelf, it’s quite a sandy bed, you could say, quite smooth topography, and these troughs, of the order of 50 kilometers across, something like that – 50 to 100 kilometers. The closer you go to the ice, the more sharply incised the bedrock topography is. But that means that the warm water is confined in narrower channels. 

And you can see that if we zoom in again, on this area here, what people call Trough Two is only four-and-a-half kilometers across. And this is the warm water pathway that is melting the most vulnerable ice shelf on the planet. So, this is something that would seem to be a target for potential intervention. You gain this massive leverage I talked about, where you’re putting the plug.  This is the plug hole, basically, that we want him to try to fill. There are other pathways. It’s not necessarily clear that if we blocked just Two, you would solve the problem. I’m not saying that, because maybe the warm water would find another pathway – maybe this T Three. If that’s the advantage of pulling a curtain further out, you would protect more of the glacier. It would be more challenging from an engineering point of view, but you would get a bigger benefit in terms of the ice that’s protected. So, if this trough over here, you would protect Thwaits and Pine Island, and a number of these smaller glaciers as well. So, this kind of summarizes the idea. You have this warm water, you have a sea bed curtain over here with reinforced tensile fabrics and variety of different kinds of foundations. We’ve looked at it.  I won’t go into detail now about all of these details. We’ve made engineering models about how the forces would be on this curtain. We know the kinds of materials that would be needed. We’ve also argued that there’s a duty of the signatories to the Antarctic Treaty System to proactively protect the ice sheet. Things like the Madrid protocol govern the preservation and the maintenance of the status quo. But if people did not do active conservation, effectively, the ice sheet would disappear relatively quickly because of these greenhouse gas emissions. So, there’s this kind of moral – and actually arguably legal – imperative to act.

Metta Spencer  14:37

May I ask one question here? I’m not sure where the warm water comes from. Is it that the ocean in general, all over the world, all the ocean has the cold water at the top and there’s warmer water at the bottom?

John Moore  14:55

No, the warm water is, in ultimate terms, generated in the tropics. That’s heating the global ocean.  93% of the incoming radiation rises due to greenhouse gas, 93% of that energy has gone into the ocean, and it’s heating the ocean. That’s been going on since the Industrial Revolution. That’s why it’s very difficult to do anything about it. It’s this huge amount of energy that’s stored in the ocean. Now, on this figure here, you see this blue, this deep blue that’s at the edge of the Antarctic continental shelf? The waters there are cold by normal standards, but warm by the standards of Antarctica, which of course, is in contact with all of this ice and those deep waters, heated by the atmosphere way up in the tropics, those contain a lot of energy. And they are periodically kind of pumped onto this continental shelf by climate, by weather variability. And those warm waters flow over the continental shelf through these deep, deep troughs. And that’s something that has increased since the early part of the 20th century. We know there’s a lot more warm water being pumped onto the continental shelf than there was 50 years ago, for example.

Metta Spencer  16:47

Well, I’ll be quiet and let Peter – 

John Moore  16:50

I can’t finish this?

Metta Spencer  16:56

I beg your pardon. I thought you were through.

John Moore  16:58

No, I’m just going to point out that when we cost this, we look at who would benefit. So, we estimate there’s roughly 200 million people that would be forced to move by the collapse of Thwaites glacier around the world, because their living conditions would become untenable in terms of flooding. And you will have a knock on effect. If you remove ice in one base, you’re lowering the ice sheet, and that will tend to destabilize surrounding basins as well. So, the costs of doing this are something like $5 per person per year for those 200 million people, so we’re looking at something like $50 billion for the construction, and about a $2 billion – one to $2 billion per year  – maintenance cost for periodic replacement of these curtains and foundations. 

If you compare that with things like the Stratospheric Aerosol injection, which costs at the order of seven to 70 billion, depending on how much protection you would need to do for the, for the temperature rise. So, and

Metta Spencer  18:29

With a stratospheric injection, you’d be talking about this 70 billion indefinitely, not just as setup, right? So, 

John Moore  18:39

Well, for perhaps at least 100 years. You know, it takes time to remove the CO2 from the atmosphere by afforestation or artificial trees that you could somehow lower the CO2 concentration and store it long term in rocks. Yeah. And coastal protection.

If you said, pkay, we won’t stabilize Antarctica. We will just pay for berms and dikes and things like that, which, sure the rich part of the world could do,  the developing world is much less able to do. And that’s estimated to cost about 50 billion per year. So, it’s probably 50 times more expensive than this intervention that we’re talking about, for the Antarctic. 

So that’s basically the overview. There’s a ton of details that I have not gone into but, by all means, let’s have a discussion about it. I would say that we are not planning to go straight to Antarctica. We are at the moment working with Greenlanders and in Greenland trying to do some kind of a learning experience to explore how would Greenland feel about protecting its ice sheet. What benefits to Greenlanders are there from doing this kind of work, if any? Perhaps they don’t care.

Metta Spencer  20:13

Fascinating. Thank you. Okay, let’s turn this off and let’s see what Peter has to say.

Peter Wadhams  20:24

Well, first thing is, I can see that this vertical barrier concept is a good one because it’s been already thought for another project, which is preserving icebergs and towing them around to places which need water. So, there’s a project to take icebergs from Newfoundland, tow them to Tenerife, which has got zero water, by having a geotextile and vertical barrier, and woven fabric. It’s the same fabric as is used to preserve ski lands in the Alps. And that then surrounds the iceberg close in, so that it’s more or less like a wetsuit, and the layer of water between the iceberg and the fabric is warmed by the fact that it’s close together and this was not warmed. Actually it’s preserved and that keeps the iceberg from melting quickly when it’s going being towed through warmer seas. And the effect seems to be great enough that you can in fact get at least two-thirds of an iceberg from Newfoundland to Tenerife. So okay, that’s, that a similar concept. It’s not quite the same, but it’s the same idea – that you’re using a vertical barrier to prevent heat flow to vent heat. And I’d be happy to do that and to see that being deployed. It could very well be useful. The only thing that concerns me – because I I haven’t worked on the spacecraft series – is, a bit like Metta, I sort of wonder where does the warm water come from? Because all the glaciers and ice sheets that I’ve looked at have got the warm water above cold water. So you’ve got to have a source of warm water right down at the bottom of the ice sheet. I’m wondering, where does that come from? And how is the flow of warm water preserved?

John Moore  23:42

Okay, well, you know, it’s interesting what you said about geotextiles around the icebergs. But we do know that in reservoirs, they do use curtains of about 100 meters thickness to separate warm and cold waters for the ecological benefits downstream for salmon habitats, for example. So, in a sense, that’s a surface floating rather than a bottom anchored. There is warm water when looking at these temperature salinity profiles that are available from the area and also in Greenland, in for example, Disco Bay. In the summer, the surface layer 100 meters or so certainly does warm up. But over the longer term, the deeper waters are warmer than the surface. I’m talking about 500 meters deep and deep at the thermocline – this temperature change where you get this increasing temperature – is quite deep in the Amundsen Sea sector. I can say usually it’s been between about 500 to 700 meters deep. So that’s why these troughs, which can be up to 1000 meters deep – they are very deep troughs. Those are where that inflow of water from outside Antarctic is coming in there. 

Obviously, the deeper the trough, from the engineering point of view, the more difficult it is to work. So, the things that we’ve looked at are how the costs change. Or how do they scale with the height of the barrier above the seabed, with the length of the barrier, and the depth that you’ll have to work out? So, we did a kind of a cost-benefit analysis where we guess the costing compared with the amount of ice in terms of sea level that is protected by these barriers. Then you can estimate what height is the best to have the top of the curtain at. And without fairly crude color and cost-benefit analysis, it’s about 550 meters. So, we’re not going really anywhere near the upper part in the Amundsen Sea sector. 

In fact, the icebergs that are calving from Thwaits and Pine Island are less than 500 meters deep. So probably they would mainly go completely over the barrier without even hitting it at all. But yes, where the glacier comes off the land, it’s 1000 meters deep. So that’s how the warm water is melting rapidly at the base.

Peter Wadhams  26:48

Well, is that process something that’s changed over the years? Or is it continuous or discontinuous? Because that would surely get rid of the Thwaits glacier here in pretty short order.

John Moore  27:06

Yes, you’re right. And if you look at the pictures of the the Western Thwaites, I it’s in terrible state. I don’t know that anyone’s got a real solid estimate of how long it would survive but I think some alarming estimates are as little as five years. Ice shelves are notoriously difficult to predict their lifespan. They can disappear virtually overnight when they go. But certainly, there’s a lot of damage there. You can see that the shear margin where the edge of the glazier is flowing very rapidly. It’s very chaotic. Looks very weak. You could say it’s being torn apart; it’s tearing itself apart and accelerating. And this is something that seems to have happened in the early part of the 20th century, maybe 100 years ago, maybe 80 years ago. At least it seems to be related mostly to the tropical Pacific, to the heating in the tropical Pacific that finally makes its way down to Antarctica. It’s not so much the local sort of Southern Ocean circulation or the atmospheric circulation around Antarctica that’s driving it. It is more a global ocean sort of driving force there.

Peter Wadhams  28:47

So do you have estimates of how fast the melt is going? I mean, that is left to itself? How long would it take before the glacier here is significantly degraded?

John Moore  29:07

Yeah, we have one critical thing: the buttressing, that’s really the key thing. How much back force, the ice shelf where it’s grounded, is supplying to the inland ice? So, the amount of buttressing depends on how rapidly the ice shelf can calve away into icebergs, and that is one of the classic deep and unknown issues in glaciology. A good calving relationship. People have done very nice, high resolution models that require enormous computer power to solve. Cracks propagate at the speed of sound. Glaciers flow very, very slowly. This is a super-difficult computational problem because you’re trying to span so many different scales of velocity that it’s difficult to do. But we’ve looked at different formulations, different kinds of calving, and you get rapid retreat downslope of the Thwaites Glacier over the next hundreds of years and it continues for quite a long time into the future. The speed at which that glacier retreats is still very difficult to say, though,

Peter Wadhams  30:37

That will be really a question. Is this some kind of emergency or not? There’s a –

John Moore  30:46

Yes, I would say that we could handle this, basically, reasonably well over the next 30 years. The longer you leave it, the more difficult it is. It’s like a ball rolling down a hill. If you do it at the start, of course, it’s easy to stop, the more speed it’s got, the more momentum the more difficult it will be.

Metta Spencer  31:16

Didn’t you say a while ago that the Thwaite Glacier might collapse within five years?

John Moore  31:25

That’s not my opinion. But I’ve certainly read articles that say that. That give timescales. So, it’s, as I said, it’s very difficult to know how quickly it will go.

Metta Spencer  31:38

So if you’re starting a project that’s going to take 30 years, but within five years, it’s already failed – I don’t know? This doesn’t sound too easy to sell people on. 

John Moore  31:51

Well, the thing is that, even if the ice shelf disappears, it can come back. The point is that, if you stop that warm water coming in, and you turn off the melting from rates around 100 meters a year to 10 meters a year, or even zero. That ice, coming off 1000 meters thick from the land, isn’t going to be thin very quickly. It’s going to stay thick, and the ice shelf is moving rapidly off the land. So it will very quickly grind on to these seabed highs again. Of course, we don’t know for sure. It’s certainly easier if the ice shelf is still existing while you are trying to do this kind of an intervention. And if it’s disappeared completely, we want to keep the thing as close to the status quo as possible. But the point is, if you’re slowing down from 100 meters a year to one meter a year or zero, you’re gonna get a difference.

Metta Spencer  33:03

Okay. Here we are being joined by Paul Beckwith. Hello, Paul, how are you?

Paul Beckwith  33:10

Hello, Metta. Sorry, I couldn’t make it right at the start. But I’m here now.

Metta Spencer  33:15

You’ve missed a slide show. John Moore here has been showing us pictures of Antarctica. Do you want to do a quick quick quick replay of that slideshow and show Paul what we have already been looking at at greater length?

Paul Beckwith  33:38

Thank you. That’s okay. I can just sort of listen to you guys for a few minutes. I’m sure I have a few comments to make. Okay.

John Moore  33:46

Yes, if you have any questions and I can maybe show the relevant slide to explain the concept. So where were we?

Peter Wadhams  34:00

Yeah. Firstly, this phenomenon of warm water underlying cold water, which is obviously going to lead to an unstable situation, and how long that has gone on for, and whether it will carry on like that, and whether that’s going to be the root cause of the disintegration of the ice shelf. Some big questions really.

John Moore  34:28

Yeah, well, as you know, Peter, there is a plume of fresh water that comes out from the base of the ice because most of the Antarctic is at the melting point. So, this comes out of a kind of a sub-glacial river, and that pushes out under the ice shelf. And as this flow, this river, is coming out, it’s entraining the warmer ocean waters within this plume. And those warm waters are the things that’s causing the rapid melting underneath the ice shelf. As those warm waters are brought up by this rising plume, then they are cooling. Of course, they’re melting the ice. Eventually, there’s a compensatory flow outflow of this cold water at the surface or near the surface – let’s say in the 100 meters depth – that is replenished by this deep flow off the continental shelf of waters that are this global ocean. Deep waters which are relatively dense because they’re at the bottom of the ocean, and warmer than these waters that have been freshened and cooled by contact with the ice. And

Paul Beckwith  36:10

This warmer water is also more of a problem when the bottom is sloping, not towards the ocean, but sloping inland, right? In the warm water, when the glacier starts receding, then it has to move back a long distance, right? James Hanson, have you talked about some of his work? Because he was talking about the warming waters around Antarctica in papers many years ago. And, you know, even a few years ago, he’s had some major papers on how this is a factor that is not included in the climate models. 

People still talk about ice on Antarctica lasting thousands of years, right?  I’m always amazed that when I hear that sort of thing. NASA has, interestingly, started to do some Facebook posts – people with different groups at NASA, where they’re presenting data. And just yesterday, or even this morning, I saw a number like that: it’s still going to take 1000 years or whatever. No matter what type of warming there is, you know, the Antarctic ice is going to be there for an awful long time. I don’t know how they can say that. Actually, I’m always surprised.

John Moore  37:59

Some parts of the Antarctic – a lot of the Antarctic – actually is relatively stable. So that means, sure it will melt, but it takes time. Like surface melting from the top downwards. It’s very difficult to get more than about a metre a year, because the air is not such a very good conductor of heat. Of course, it’s actually –

Paul Beckwith  38:23

It’s heat capacity is low. And also, ice is a very good insulator, right?

John Moore  38:29

Right. But if you are melting from the ocean, you can have melt rates at the order of 100 meters a year underneath these ice shelves where the ice is coming afloat. So the problem is that this marine ice sheet instability that you were talking about, where you have this reverse sloping shelf of sea floor underneath, that is a geometric instability. As I said, it’s like a ball rolling down the hill. If you erode away something that’s stopping that ball, it will roll down the hill. And that’s the situation that we are in with things like Thwaites glacier. So even if we basically stopped emitting CO2 now, those glaciers that have had that buttressing force removed because the ice shelf has thinned and floating free, that will continue. You need to physically restrain that ice from flowing off the land. Now building a concrete wall, for example, that’s what originally what we thought we would need to do. But the it doesn’t make any sense. What you need to do is let the ice do its own thing. It knows where those buttress things used to be and it will find them if the ice shelf is thick enough. 

The way to get the ice shelf thick is to turn down that ocean melt rate from 100 meters a year to as close to zero as you can. And that’s what this concept of a curtain blocking access to the deep, warm waters is all about.

Paul Beckwith  40:29

So, this curtain would have to be clear, would have to be massive, right? Would it be anchored to the sea floor?

John Moore  40:35

Yeah, it’s anchored to the seafloor with concrete foundations. The length of the shortest length – that is the channel that is funneling water underneath the most vulnerable life shelf on the planet – is four and a half kilometers wide. I mean, four and a half kilometers, that’s a lunchtime stroll, really. The whole width of the Thwaites ice shelf is something like 100 kilometers, but that’s kind of irrelevant. The key thing is putting the plug in the bathtub. We’re not talking about how big the bathtub is, just where the water is flowing. And that’s four and a half kilometers across. 

Paul Beckwith  41:26

How high would it be? What’s the water depth?

John Moore  41:31

The water depth in those deep channels is up to about 1000 meters. the top of the curtain should be around 500 meters. So it needs to be something on the order of a few hundred meters, and on the order of 10 kilometers across. In reservoirs, people use surface floating curtains to separate warm waters on the order of a kilometer across and about 100 meters thick, deep.

Paul Beckwith  42:06

In the case of those reservoirs, that would be to reduce evaporation. And you’re talking about

John Moore  42:14

Oh, no. It’s to separate water of different temperatures. So it’s doing exactly the same kind of job. And the idea is to manage the temperature of the outflow of the reservoirs to better preserve fishing, salmon habitat.

42:30

Okay. So there are reservoirs where that technology is being used right at the moment?

John Moore  42:37

Well, those are crude approaches, okay. With the kind of materials that we’re talking about – we’re talking about high modulus polyethylene, for example. It’s the kind of technology that is employed in things like deep ocean drilling, or laying communications cables in the deep ocean, or even offshore wind turbines installations. So, if this was in temperate waters, we would have all of the engineering ability to start tomorrow. The difficulty is, of course, you’re in Antarctica. You’ve got the polar night, you’ve got these massive icebergs calving from Thwaites and Pine Island and places like that. Undoubtedly it would be the most challenging civil engineering project that humanity has ever done. But it’s not science fiction. We know how to do it. It just requires funding and political will.

Paul Beckwith  43:50

You also have the tidal changes and very rough wave action.

John Moore  43:58

Well, that’s the thing. Because the top of the curtain is about 500 meters deep, it’s well below tidal. We have thought about things like tsunamis: Would that make an impact? There’s a lot of unknowns; we need to do more. Looking at the interaction of the curtain with the aspiration flow up and over the curtain. There will be some flow like that. The most disastrous thing that we could think about was, if you get the thing flapping like a flag for some reason, then we can imagine it destroying itself. There is clearly a ton of engineering to go through. We’re not talking about being ready to install this tomorrow or next year. There’s at least a decade of engineering to go through. 

We would start in manageable places. You wouldn’t need even to have a glacier. You can do it where there are the kind of ocean currents where you could learn. You could start in a river. The Cambridge University engineering department actually are quite interested in doing a simple project in the Cam with this kind of curtain just to see how would it work in practice. You can learn a lot and scale, step by step, up the difficulty ladder, going through Greenland, and then finally towards Antarctica and Thwaites.

Paul Beckwith  45:44

Okay, now, you may have covered this already, but a couple more technical questions .The curtain would be anchored to the ocean floor, there’d be buoys on the top to lift it upwards, right? Would it let some water through or would it be completely opaque to water flow? Or would it block, say 80 percent? You know, a mesh sort of thing.

John Moore  46:15

This is a good question. We were talking about panels, because expect a 30 year lifespan for these kinds of plastic panels. They would be hinged at the foundation so they could rotate in different directions if the icebergs and things hit them. These panels would overlap. Where you would have two layers of panels, of course, in the aspiration over the top there will be some kind of an exchange flow. But the details of that can be controlled by engineering. You can have spoilers on the top of the curtains, for example, that determine how the separation goes over the top. As I say, there’s a ton of engineering that needs to be done. The concrete foundations can be installed by a variety of techniques, depending on the material, on the sea floor conditions. Our favorite design, the one that we’re able to cost most easily, is actually a longer curtain about 80 kilometers across, that’s out further away from the ice. It protects more glaciers and it’s in shallow water. And it’s in these eluvial sort of deposits, so the engineering is a lot easier. We’re firmer on the costs that would be required to do something like that.

Paul Beckwith  47:57

Now would you have some sort of power generator there to provide power to run sensors or actually run motors if you installed them to control the movement of the curtain? I guess you could use underwater turbines.

John Moore  48:21

We don’t want to have a lot of complicated things that can break down, so they’re basically passive. Obviously, we would instrument the shit out of them so we’d know what’s going on. And there is certainly power from these currents and available. We certainly will be using power but there are sources of power from the ocean there.

I’m not an engineer. Our stupid idea when we started this was, okay, let’s just block these passages with a pile of rocks. So we started talking to an engineer in in Vancouver, Barry Kiefer, he contacted us and says: “This idea is just plain stupid. Have you thought about these curtains? These curtains are a much more sensible way of doing it.” Of course, he’s absolutely right. He’s an engineer. There is other engineers and fluid mechanics people for example, in UBC in Vancouver, there are people in engineering and in glaciology. We have groups of people around the world – very small scale at the moment. Alfred Vader Institute, the engineering department in Cambridge University. One or two companies are starting to think this is an interesting idea, should we be investigating this? 

Metta Spencer  50:22

You make it sound as if maybe private industry could find a way to make a buck from it. I can’t imagine how that could be.

John Moore  50:31

Well, I think you’re absolutely right. And this is a key part of the greenlab work that we’re trying to do is, how do you monetize the AI sheets as a global good?  It is a global good in the same sense that old growth rainforests are, or the Amazon rainforest. It’s something that benefits everybody, but it only benefits that while it’s in existence. You might consider something like the payment for ecosystem services that the United Nations runs. Or the kind of funds that tell people not to cut down old growth forests. We also may consider the insurance industry, a levy on flood insurance globally. 

No one’s wanting or expecting guys in Kiribati or Bangladesh to pay for this thing. For sure, they would be the main beneficiaries but, obviously, the rich West causes most of this problem and, by right, a guy who buys a condo in Miami should be paying a hell of a lot more for this kind of thing than a guy in Bangladesh. 

As I said, we estimated if it’s 200 million people that would benefit, it’s of the order of $5 a year per person of those 200 million. But there’s no reason why it shouldn’t be limited to 200 million people because it’s a huge worry in Europe, you know: climate, refugees, climate migrants. It’s actually worthwhile for countries like Switzerland, for example, to pay for this kind of thing to avoid people from the developing world coming and wanting to settle in Europe. 

Peter Wadhams  52:28

It will be suddenly true that acceleration of loss of ice is one of the big problems facing the world because sea level rise is accelerating. And that’s coming from increased melt of ice sheets, especially in the Arctic, but also potentially in the Antarctic. So, if you can find a way to reduce the rate of loss, then that’s going to be really beneficial for the world in terms of reducing the rate of global sea level rise. 

John Moore  53:15

That’s what we hope. And that’s why for Greenland, it’s very important. Greenland wants to do something good. Is Greenland happy that the ice sheet goes away> In fact, they care about what happens to people in Bangladesh. I’m sure they do, like any rational human being does. It’s just that they never considered the ice sheet as being anything particularly worthwhile. They work on the sea ice, they benefit from the ocean resources. I’ve been telling them that the ice sheet is their ice treasure, this is what they’ve got. This is something that world cares about. They can gain enormous soft power and influence by being the good guys and conserving their ice sheets. So they can do that and benefit if we can control some of the outlets from Greenland. But also, they can be applying pressure to the Antarctic Treaty signatory people and saying, Hey, you guys, we’re doing our bit to conserve Greenland. We really need to do the same kind of thing in Antarctica. You guys need to step up and put your hand in your pocket.

Metta Spencer  54:38

Countries have some sort of pact to protect the Antarctic. Which countries are they and what’s the nature of the of the contract?

John Moore  54:52

The Antarctic is governed by something called the Antarctic Treaty System. There are 29 voting members of this system, which are actually the 29 richest countries on the planet, more or less. All of them except Switzerland have a coastline, so all of them will benefit by reducing sea level rise. The duty of the signatories to the Antarctic Treaty is to preserve the ice sheet as it is. And usually that’s taken as meaning you can’t drill for oil or mining minerals. That kind of thing. What we are arguing is that legally it means that you have to actively conserve that ice sheet because if people do nothing, even if people just turn off all of the CO2-burning motors in the world, the ice sheet will go away, because it’s this ball that’s rolling down the hill. In order to keep that ball, the ice sheet, you have to stop it. You have to provide the buttressing. You can’t just say, well, this is a bigger problem; it’s not just our 29 countries. No, this is something directly that the people governing Antarctica can do independently of all of those greenhouse mitigation measures.

Metta Spencer  56:36

What other things would be impacted by it? I don’t imagine there’s any shipping lanes around there. There probably are whales and fish. To what extent would other life forms be affected by the change in the currents of the ocean there?

John Moore  56:59

This is an excellent question. I’m glad you asked this. And it’s only recently that we’ve been talking to ecologists, and actually they have started to become interested in this idea. There will be some local impacts, both through the construction process, which won’t be 100%, clean, you know – it’s an engineering process. And as for changing the currents. I always say, Well, you have to compare risk for risk. The question is, what would happen if you didn’t do this? Not, what is the case now, but what will be the comparable situation? 

For sure, hundreds of kilometers retreat of the ice will change the marine ecology a hell of a lot more around Antarctica than just doing an intervention like this. At least that’s my feeling. I’m not an ecologist, I would love to have an ecologist say this, but that study needs to be done. 

The wider issue is: What happens to the waters that you stop going to the Thwaites? Are they just going to melt the next place here down the line, the next Domino, if you like? That’s why I was saying to Paul that, in fact, a lot of the Antarctic is stable in that it’s not vulnerable to this marine ice sheet instability. Those waters will melt the ice, but melt it in a more graceful way. You will get melt rates locally. The catastrophic thing with Thwaites is not the local melting, but the massive calving of the icebergs that are then carried away and then melting in the global ocean, not just locally. What you want is a managed situation, rather than this catastrophic collapse.

Metta Spencer  59:08

Okay, I am interested in putting people together who have some way of benefiting from collaboration. So I’m wondering: Are you looking for partnerships? Are you looking to form a connection with Peter and Paul, if their network can be of any value to you? Here’s my opportunity to invite you people to become friends.

Paul Beckwith  59:43

Yeah (smiles). Well, this is the first step. Right. One of my biggest concerns about Antarctic ice melting is, is actually Greenland melting. If there’s an overall rise of sea level, that’s going to push up the ice shelves in Antarctica. And the two poles are definitely connected. We see this in the Paleo records. But in Antarctica, the ice melt is solely from underneath, right? There’s very little ice melt on the surface, because, if we raise the temperature on Antarctica from minus 40 Celsius to minus 30 Celsius, nothing’s still going to melt on the surface, whereas Greenland is a different situation. We’re starting to get lots of air temperatures, well above zero over the surface of the ice, even three kilometers high at the surface of the ice over Greenland. So, we’re getting lots of melting on the surface. As we get more melting on the surface, the debris, the dust, etc, that’s in the ice becomes more concentrated at the surface and the albedo drops. It leads to even more and more melting on Greenland. It’s melting from above and below. So I would say it’s a lot harder to stop the Greenland situation than Antarctica.

John Moore  1:01:27

You’re absolutely right about that. At the moment, it’s about half and half from the air and from the ocean. We expect by the end of this century it will be something like 80%, from the air and 20% from the ocean. That is not an issue that you can solve with the seabed curtains. This is not a panacea for for everything. This is trying to put a band-aid on the worst thing. The sea level commitment from Greenland is likely to be a lot less than from Antarctica. Yeah, the pipe, the outlet glaciers in Greenland, are relatively confined in these quite narrow fields – a bit different from the situation in Antarctica, which is the wide base and much broader outlets. 

But yes, if you want to manage Greenland, yeah, maybe you want to be thinking about this. Geoengineering by other methods, whether aerosol injection or marine cloud brightening or something like that. The point that we are making with the Greenlanders is: You might want to do this for local benefits. For example, fishing is very important, and the fish species have changed radically over the last 30 years. And you may want to let the Greenlanders determine the ice and the fiord configuration that’s optimal for their way of life. There’s local benefits/

Peter Wadhams  1:03:42

I have to leave because I’ve got another meeting, which is a similar topic. It’s a cruise that we’re planning for going to Patagonia. It’s been a very interesting presentation. 

John Moore  1:04:09

Lovely to chat with you, Peter. It’s been it’s been a few years since we spoke. 

Paul Beckwith  1:04:16

It’s been fascinating to me also. I’ll be going to the COP climate conference in November in Egypt. It might be interesting to cover these ideas in one of the press release presentations there, so we should touch base about that possibility. John.

Metta Spencer  1:05:20

Thank you, John, for this presentation. You can count on hearing from somebody as a result because you’re going to stimulate some kind of conversation, I’m sure. Bye.

T248. Werbos, Computers, and God

284 – When Soviet and American Scientists Worked Together

284 - When Soviet and American Scientists Worked Together

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number: 284
Panelists: Frank von Hippel and Roald Sagdeev.
Host: Metta Spencer

Date Aired: 6 July 2021.
Date Transcribed and Verified: 30 November 2021.
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits: Adam Wynne.

Synopsis: Roald Sagdeev led scientists in Gorbachev’s USSR; Frank von Hippel was his counterpart in the US. They worked together to reduce the risk of nuclear war.

Please note this transcript has been edited. 

Metta Spencer  

I’m Metta Spencer. Did you know, there was a time when the Americans and the Soviets got along? And the scientists were good friends. And we need to think about those days. I have here with me, although they’re at their own computers, two very, very eminent scientists who were engaged with each other and with saving the world. I think we can owe a lot to both of them for their part in bringing the end into the Cold War. And I want to have a conversation today when these two men reminisce about the old days. Roald Sagdeev was in those days a Soviet scientist, and he was very active in the Committee of the Soviet Scientists, which interacted very much with another organization, an American group that was headed by Frank von Hippel. Now, Roald Sagdeev, many years ago, moved to the United States. So, he’s in Maryland right now, but has often been in touch with his old pal, Frank von Hippel. They recently celebrated the 100th anniversary of Sakharov, another scientist of that generation who was also probably even better known than they for his work as not only the father of the Russian hydrogen bomb, which was not exactly something I would celebrate, but also, he was very famous as a dissident. A very courageous man. So, he’s no longer with us, but these two men are. So hello, fellas. Roald Sagdeev, let’s ask you, if you will, to give us a pre-history of this historical period that we’re going to be reminiscing about. Will you tell us what was going on after Stalin died and bring us up to the 1980s? 

Roald Sagdeev  

Scientists contributed a lot to the nuclear era. And it is not surprising that those who were very involved in designing nuclear weapons were also great scientists of the 1930s, 1940s, and 1950s. They were some of the first to tell the governments that the world might perish if policies were not changed. I remember I was a young scientist in the 1950s, just at the beginning of my career. Stalin had just passed away. At the time when I was about to graduate from the University of Moscow, I remember the great American nuclear physicist Leo Szilard tried to write a letter to Stalin to explain how dangerous life would be during the nuclear era. And he didn’t actually send this letter. Probably, Stalin was not the guy who would receive this letter in a kind manner. But a few years later, [Szilard] actually sent a letter to Khrushchev, the successor of Stalin. This was delivered to the hands of Khrushchev by Soviet scientists that he met at early meetings. And this led, actually, to a very interesting meeting in New York, when Khrushchev during his political visit, invited Leo Szilard to talk about nuclear dangers. And so, that was an interesting indication that sometimes governments try to hear what scientists would tell them. Similarly, on the Soviet side, Sakharov was the first who raised the alarm about the danger of nuclear tests and the radioactive contamination of the atmosphere. He wrote a number of letters to Khrushchev and equally on American side, my friend Frank von Hippel, did very important work with a very detailed analysis of this radioactive fallout and its dangers.  So, this call, coming from these two scientists, virtually created the process of negotiations. Khrushchev was involved, as was John F. Kennedy. And it ended with a very important treaty banning or partially banning nuclear tests, in the atmosphere, in the oceans, and in outer space. So that was the very first step at that time. 

Metta Spencer  

When was this organization founded? The Soviet Scientists… what was the name of the committee? 

Roald Sagdeev  

The Committee of Soviet Scientists to Prevent Nuclear War. It was established in the early 1980s, following the very difficult events when the Soviet Army invaded Afghanistan in late 1979. And it actually interrupted all the regular contact, virtual contacts, and consultations on important issues between Soviets and the West and between the United States and its Allies. And I think that it was an understanding on both sides, that something has to be going on. Some kind of contacts, interaction, partially to create transparency, to prevent the accidental [use] or whatever will happen with nuclear weapons. And so, there was a creation of this group, under the auspices of the Soviet Academy of Scientists. That was a move which came on the Soviet side.

Metta Spencer  

The Union of Concerned Scientists had been around since almost the end of World War 2, right?

Frank von Hippel  

It was the Federation of American Scientists. The Union of Concerned Scientists is a different organization. 

Metta Spencer  

Pardon me. I’m sorry. I know better.

Frank von Hippel  

I was very interested to hear Roald explain that pre-history. Just one correction: Sakharov’s counterpart on the US-side was Linus Pauling, who was actually equally…. Later on, I just became involved in checking Sakharov’s calculations. But I became involved when we received a letter from the Committee of Soviet Scientists asking us whether we had changed our minds about the possibility of there being an effective defense against ballistic missiles. So, this was following President Reagan’s speech in March 1983, where he called on the US scientific community to pitch in and develop what became known as “Star Wars.” We responded that we hadn’t changed our minds. And we were invited over – the leadership of the Federation was invited – over to Moscow – and then we had a side trip to Tbilisi in Georgia over the Thanksgiving weekend in 1983 – to talk and to brainstorm about how to keep things from going out of control. And it was just after the scare about a possible nuclear war that had happened just earlier that same month.

Metta Spencer  

That Able Archer [83] thing? 

Frank von Hippel  

Able Archer [83], the NATO exercise. 

Metta Spencer  

You should explain it a little. 

Frank von Hippel  

This was one of a series of NATO exercises. And it was to end with a nuclear tabletop aspect of a US nuclear strike against Eastern Europe. I think the scenario must have been a Soviet invasion of Germany. It was more elaborate exercise than the previous exercises and the Soviets were worried that this was a real thing. Especially after Reagan had been calling the Soviet Union the evil empire. It was one of the near misses that we had of actually going from this nuclear confrontation into an actual nuclear war during the Cold War. They thought that the US might be preparing an attack on Eastern Europe. The Soviets actually started loading bombs, fighter bombers, and nuclear bombs in case. And there were discussions of preemption. Fortunately, NATO didn’t respond by escalating to the Soviet Union’s response. Therefore, the exercises ended without anything happening. 

Metta Spencer  

I think we’ve left out a few years there, because in between Stalin and the period you’re talking about, there was this buildup of tension, which we haven’t described. The fears arose in all parts of the world, that there would be a nuclear war, because there was a buildup of and the intention to install missiles closer and closer in Europe. And then we get to the period that you’ve just talk to me about in 1983. 

Frank von Hippel  

There was an earlier crisis in 1962 – the Cuban Missile Crisis – which was perhaps the closest we got, but then there was a long period of detente through the 1970s. And then in 1979, after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan; and then with Reagan coming in with this – you know – brave hawkish view, we had this second crisis in the early 1980s, which I guess peaked with this Able Archer [83] exercise. 

Roald Sagdeev  

Yeah, and this crisis was growing since the late 1970s. It started with Soviet plans to deploy a medium range rocket to threaten major European capitals -NATO allies of the United States – and to intimidate them. And in a reciprocal act, Americans started deployment of a similar type of medium range rocket, which would be able to reach Moscow from much closer distances – 1000 miles or shorter. And so, the crisis is what they called the Euro-Rocket Crisis and was very serious. Both sides understood that it would change qualitatively the balance of powers if there would be risk of launching such rockets – nuclear rockets – from shorter distances. I remember the Soviet government’s Politburo was extremely afraid of all these things. And suddenly, on top of that, Reagan delivers his speech about Star Wars. That was a culmination in 1983.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah, well some of us had been meeting in the earlier 1980s. Before the Star Wars thing began. I was already well engaged, because I had probably made 10 trips – well maybe not 10 by then, but I certainly did more than 10 later – to Russia and to other Eastern European cities where the Soviet Peace Committee would invite Western peace activists, large numbers of us – a whole plane full of us – at a time in about 1982. 

Frank von Hippel  

That was very significant period. There was this mobilization in both Western Europe and in the United States against the nuclear arms race. For my development, this was an important period. To see that, you know, that force was a real political force in the United States.

Metta Spencer  

It really had had influence, I think.

Frank von Hippel  

And I think Roald may be able to tell us that this had an impact in Moscow in the Gorbachev group, on feeling maybe the US was not just controlled by the military industrial complex. 

Roald Sagdeev  

Actually, that reminder of that period brings me back to a very intense moment. The reaction of different circles inside the Soviet elite to Reagan’s speech. I have to confess that there were enthusiasts. The leaders of the Soviet military-industrial complex said: “Great, we will have something more to do!”  Fortunately, Gorbachev came at that moment. And we knew that we were not alone. The idea of the terrible past of the arms race was shared with our American scientist counterparts. We were very successful to persuade Gorbachev to reject the attempts of the Soviet military industrial complex to follow the American precedent and establish a strategic defense initiative on the Soviet side. 

Metta Spencer  

Well, I want to hear about that, because I’m very aware that you were having a lot of influence with Gorbachev. And I think maybe that’s the first time you maybe did have much political influence. Is that right? How did that work? it? Did you meet with him? Or did he reach out to you? How did you use any kind of influence in those conversations?

Roald Sagdeev  

I think it started in in a rather accidental way. About a year before, Gorbachev became General Secretary when he was still a younger member of the Politburo. He was asked by the Politburo to make a trip to the United Kingdom to meet with Margaret Thatcher. So, he established a small delegation and a colleague of mine – Evgeny Velikhov – was invited by Gorbachev to join that trip. It was the first very successful trip and played a very important role later on when Thatcher explained to Reagan and the other Western leaders that Gorbachev is a new guy, a new face, and we can make a deal with him. We built some good connections between science and the future General Secretary. The very first thing we did was to prepare a manuscript explaining the dangers of following the line of missile defense. Frank knows this manuscript very well. We also used some advice from our American colleagues. It was delivered to Gorbachev and I believe it played an important role. Then, very soon after, Velikhov and I were invited to meet with Gorbachev and we were invited to accompany him to his very first summit with Reagan. 

Metta Spencer  

Oh, okay. And what happened there? What did you do while they were off by the fireplace having their conversation? 

Roald Sagdeev  

I think at the beginning it was rather easy to reach Gorbachev. Later, it was a little bit more difficult because of bureaucratic shielding around him. But I think Gorbachev firmly rejected attempts of the military industrialists inside the Soviet elite to change his mind. He was very much against Star Wars. The first two summits – in Geneva in 1985 and in Reykjavik in 1986 – went under the stigma of Star Wars. And I think Regan did his own homework and later on he understood that it was important to come to an agreement with the Soviets. It was Reagan who first said: “Let’s make a deal. Let’s destroy and annihilate all the nuclear rockets.” 

Metta Spencer  

I didn’t know it was Reagan. Oh, my goodness. 

Roald Sagdeev  

It was at Reykjavik in 1986.  

Metta Spencer:

I thought it was Gorbachev.

Roald Sagdeev  

Gorbachev thought it was a great idea, but he had one condition: he would also refuse to talk about continuing with the Star Wars strategy. So, it took some time before both finally agreed. I think it was fall of 1987 when Gorbachev had a short summit in Washington DC. At that point in time, it was very important. Euro Rockets had been cancelled and were being destroyed. An agreement was done to eliminate them. 

Metta Spencer  

Okay. Now, Frank, where were you at this point? Did Reagan take a team of scientists with him to the to these summits? The way that Roald was taken to the first summit by Gorbachev? 

Frank von Hippel  

No. We had no interaction with Reagan. He might have taken his science advisor along. But it’s very interesting what Roald is saying. In fact, my first interactions were actually with Gorbachev, not with Reagan. And it was thanks to the Soviet committee. It related to Gorbachev’s first initiative after he became General Secretary, which was to announce a unilateral Soviet nuclear test moratorium and which is actually similar to what Khrushchev had done when he tried to get a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.

Metta Spencer  

Is this when you worked on this seismic monitoring operation?

Frank von Hippel  

Yeah. Well, that’s one thing that came out of it. I think it was originally Velikhov’s idea – when the Reagan administration did not reciprocate and stop the US testing – as to how to keep the initiative alive. And Velikhov had this idea that maybe we should invite somebody in to monitor. Because some people in the Reagan administration were saying: “Well, maybe the Soviets are actually cheating. Maybe they’re carrying out small nuclear explosions at their test sites.”  So, then Velikhov suggested to me that maybe we should try to invite in somebody or a group to monitor the moratorium. 

Metta Spencer  

Was Velikhov the one who proposed that? 

Frank von Hippel  

Yes, it was Velikhov who proposed that. I think Tom Cochran from the Natural Resources Defense Council also had that idea on the United States’ side. He was one of the people that I invited to come to a meeting in Moscow in May 1986 to meet with Velikhov and discuss this idea. It was actually the NRDC which undertook the organizing of a group of American seismologists to come in and set up seismic stations around the Soviet test site in Kazakhstan. And that had a big impact in the United States, because of the efforts that Kennedy and Khrushchev had made to have a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty had failed to stop nuclear testing underground as the Soviets did not want to have more than a certain number of in country inspections of suspicious seismic events. And the fact that the Soviet Union had unilaterally invited a group in to monitor their test site showed that things had changed. This was part of the nuclear glasnost that was pioneered by Gorbachev with Velikhov’s and Sagdeev’s advice. 

Metta Spencer  

I remember being at the office of Aaron Tovish who had gone with you on some of those trips. I remember he said that Ed Markey stood up in Congress and put up a big map and said: “Look here. This is where we have monitoring stations in Semipalatinsk. We have our people right there watching them.” And this made a big impression on congress. 

Frank von Hippel  

It did. It took some time, but ultimately Congress said in 1992 that: “If the rest of the world stops testing, we have to too.”  And that was actually what got us to the Comprehensive Test Ban [Treaty]. 

Metta Spencer  

So, you think that Congress had some important leverage in there? See, I’m surprised when Roald said it was Reagan who had proposed the cutback and making of a deal. I thought that Reagan had to be dragged there. But, if you’re right and he actually spoke first along those lines, that sounds good to me. I’m glad to hear it. 

Roald Sagdeev  

Of course, Congress played a very important role. At that time, there were great Senators and great members of Congress who were fully understanding the dangers of nuclear confrontations. They were against Reagan’s most extreme plans even before Reagan changed his mind. I think it was very important that by 1987 Reagan was ready already to move forward.   

Metta Spencer  

I guess an interesting question then is: “What really changed Reagan’s mind?” I do remember I was on the plane coming back from Moscow while the film called The Day After was shown. It was a very important film that showed the aftermath of a nuclear war. And I believe Reagan said that was what actually made him really get serious about nuclear disarmament. I never saw the film because I was on the plane when it was screening. Was there anything like that going on in the Duma or anywhere else? My impression was that all of the power was in the Politburo and not elsewhere. How much popular resistance was there during that period in Russia? 

Roald Sagdeev  

I don’t think I can compare Russian popular resistance to what was happening in Europe as we spoke of. In Europe, there was a really serious uprising with many big meetings, demonstrations against nuclear threats, and so on. In Russia, the government controlled the protests. Press the necessary buttons to organize the protests and so on. Even more today, you know, when Putin shows cartoons about new and more exotic nuclear rocket gadgets. The Duma stands up and collectively applauds. I feel nostalgic about the older times looking at what is happening today in Moscow. 

Metta Spencer  

I wish I had been able to invite Evgeny Velikhov, but I gather he is not well nowadays. I did have a conversation with him once about this. Frank, you worked quite closely with him, didn’t you?

Frank von Hippel  

Yes. He was a real hero in this period and in organizing these initiatives. I mentioned the monitoring project. He and Roald were very important in preventing the Soviet Star Wars. If the Soviets actually started their own Ballistic Missile Defense Program mirroring ours then I don’t think we would have been able to stop the arms race going on into a new offense-defense direction. Also, during the Glasnost – which was an opening up – Velikhov organized a number of events. One ended up with a demonstration. Roald and I did a research project on whether you could detect nuclear weapon warheads and the issue was whether to include sea launched nuclear armed cruise missiles in the START treaty that was under discussion. The Soviets wanted to include them. The Reagan administration said: “Well, you can’t tell the difference between a nuclear armed and a conventional sea launched cruise missile.”  So, Velikhov amazingly got permission from Gorbachev to have an experiment demonstration of whether you could detect the nuclear radiation from a sea launched cruise missile off Yalta in the Black Sea. Roald and I had been supervising a theoretical research project on that question. And so, the NRDC – again with Tom Cochran – undertook an initiative to demonstrate this on the US side. But I found much more impressive what the Soviets did. Basically, in our case, we had people sitting on top of the launcher on this cruiser in the Black Sea, detecting gamma rays coming out of the warhead. But the Soviets had a helicopter with a neutron detector flying by about 70 meters away and they could detect neutrons. 

Metta Spencer  

Hold on. Let me make sure. You had an American destroyer? 

Frank von Hippel  

It was a Soviet destroyer. 

Roald Sagdeev  

 Yes.

Metta Spencer  

So, the Soviets were detecting their own radiation? 

Frank von Hippel  

Yes. That was the amazing thing. This is the only time foreigners have been allowed to measure radiation from any warhead by any country. And Gorbachev had enforced this on the Soviet nuclear establishment. Just to finish the story about the helicopter: later on, they told me that they had actually been flying this helicopter over US ships and detecting the warheads. I said: “They would never let you to get that close. Would they?” And they showed me pictures of the sailors on the US ships waving at the helicopter.   

[all chuckle]

Roald Sagdeev  

Probably little did the sailors know that there were gamma ray and neutron detectors on those friendly helicopters! 

Metta Spencer  

You know, I have to wonder… I remember you told me that story when I interviewed you 20 some years ago. But I’ve wondered ever since: gamma rays were shooting all over the place. You could fly over or get within some meters of them and detect them. Well, what about the people on the ship? I mean that must not have been a fun place to be. Whatever happened to them? Wasn’t it dangerous to have nuclear weapons shooting out gamma rays? 

Frank von Hippel  

The levels that you can detect are much, much lower than the levels of that do harm. So, I think the dosage to the sailors were probably less than the natural background dose from cosmic rays and so on. So, this means that one of the things that the helicopter had to make sure of was that it wasn’t detecting cosmic rays, instead of the neutrons from the warheads. 

Roald Sagdeev  

This radiation is just like the radiation that contemporary gamma ray telescopes are getting from distant astronomical objects, like exploding stars and such. The biggest instrument like this is now on the International Space Station. Astronauts and cosmonauts help to use it. It’s no problem. 

Metta Spencer  

Oh, okay. I’ve often wondered. Isn’t it dangerous to be a sailor on a nuclear armed submarine? I wouldn’t take the job myself.

Frank von Hippel  

Well, I mean, in some cases, they actually have sailors sleeping on bunks over the stored nuclear armed cruise missiles. This isn’t true anymore, because they’re not deployed. That’s a little close for comfort, I think. But the radiation levels are pretty low coming out of the warheads. 

Roald Sagdeev  

Frank mentioned some research we were doing and actually what happened at approximately the same time: Frank, with a little bit of my participation, established a major international scientific magazine: Science and Global Security. This was where all the researchers could publish their calculations and analysis of different things related to all this military stuff. I understand this journal is still prospering now. 

Metta Spencer  

No kidding. Well, that’s really one of the things I was wondering which I’d hope we’d get to a bit later in this narrative. I mean, we’re sort of going through a chronology and moving forward in time. But certainly, I wouldn’t have thought there’d be much contact between scientists now – Russian scientists and Western scientists – on military matters. Is there or not?

Frank von Hippel  

There still is. Roald, are you still involved with this? 

Roald Sagdeev  

Very rarely. I have been invited to webinars. I think maybe two or three times over the pandemic. 

Frank von Hippel  

But there are regular meetings between the committee at the US Academy of Sciences and the Russian Academy of Sciences. 

Roald Sagdeev  

Rose Gottemoeller is now running some of the sessions on the American side. 

Frank von Hippel  

Yes. And those meetings were quite important during the Gorbachev times when Richard Garwin – who was a great expert on all the ways that you could neutralize ballistic missile defense – had discussions under those auspices with Velikhov and another of Velikhov’s committees, which was the Soviet Academy counterpart to the US Academy committee. 

Metta Spencer  

How do they manage their secrets? Both sides most certainly have lots and lots of military secrets. How do they draw the boundaries? When you’re going to have a meeting, how do you plan it and how do you know whether you’re going close to talking about something you’re not supposed to?

Roald Sagdeev  

I think all the people had a lot of experience. Some of the members of these committees were coming from the military industrial complex. I also remember there was always some kind of interaction with the Central Committee of the Communist Party. So, before we would go to meet our American counterparts, we would have to get advice from the Soviet government and so on. It was very important to have this interaction. Of course, what was most important was that the participants had an understanding of what could be discussed and what should be kept secret. 

Metta Spencer  

Were there – or even now are there – really important things that should be known for the sake of making progress with disarmament or rapprochement of any kind that are not known and cannot be shared? Are you worried about censorship and secrecy or not? 

Frank von Hippel  

Physics is not classified. And, so you can – without talking about the specific designs of specific weapons – talk about generic approaches to nuclear arms control. So, I think it’s not that big of an impediment. 

Metta Spencer  

Okay. But let’s say, before the Soviets developed their own nuclear bomb, there would have been a time when Americans knew how and probably would have been very, very cautious about talking to Soviet scientists, right? Because they might give away some information that might be helpful in speeding up the development of a nuclear bomb. Am I wrong?

Frank von Hippel  

Yeah. But, the mantra of the Manhattan Project scientists – the World War II Manhattan Project nuclear program – when they came out, their mantra was: “There is no secret. There is no defense.” Once it had been demonstrated that you could make a nuclear weapon, it was pretty straightforward.

Metta Spencer  

Well, then it was a matter of time until it would be by others. But I think everybody was surprised at how quickly the Soviets developed it.

Roald Sagdeev  

Yeah, I think by the mid-1950s, it was already clear that both sides were equally knowledgeable about all the things. It was not a big deal. Secrets were on the technical side, on the details. But at such meetings, we never spoke about any such technical details. 

Metta Spencer  

I see.

Roald Sagdeev  

I remember there were several incidents when it was important to talk about some details. On the American side in the early 1980s, there was a kind of concern about whether the Soviets knew some particular tricks of how to stop a rocket that was accidentally launched while carrying nuclear weapons. The Americans were talking about a radio signal that could be sent to self-destruct and stop the rocket before it delivered any damage.  I remember they were telling us about this and asking if we were familiar with such technologies. The name was PAL – I think Frank knows it – Permissive Action Links. This system can self-destruct something which was launched. So, we then asked the Soviet authorities if they were interested in such things and that the Americans could explain the principle. We got the answer: “Oh, don’t worry. We also have a similar system.” 

Metta Spencer  

I thought there really wasn’t such a system. That once these things are launched, you can’t call them back or can’t undo it.

Roald Sagdeev  

I think a probable trigger to develop such system was the famous movie Dr. Strangelove.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah.

Frank von Hippel  

These Permissive Action Links are codes that are like a combination lock in the weapon which are activated. In the case of missiles, I don’t think you can, in fact, stop it. There was the concern that the Soviets might learn the code and then they could send the radio signal and prevent it. So, in fact, when the US has tests of nuclear missiles, it does have these systems in there in case the missile flies in the wrong direction. But, in the actual nuclear armed missiles they don’t have these safety systems. Once it’s launched, it can’t be recalled. This scared a lot of people. It still does. And I think that was one of the motivations that Reagan had when he proposed the abolition of ballistic missiles. He wanted to go back to bombers, which you could recall.

Metta Spencer  

Well, you can see the point. When do you feel things begin to fall apart? I mean, we know the history of the coup and all that, but I’m not sure from the standpoint of scientists. You had this strong interaction going on and cooperation. It sounded like you were the best of friends. But somehow that ended. I wonder if from your point of view, what was that landing like? Was that a hard landing? Did you sense things going wrong that that could have been fixed? What what went wrong when the Happy Days of ending the Cold War stopped?

Roald Sagdeev  

I think on the political front there was probably some kind of psychological feeling that was dominant in part of the American political elite. Triumphalism. “Oh, we have defeated the Soviet Union. We should not worry anymore.” There was probably such a feeling. And this feeling or something else finally lead to George W. Bush’s administration’s decision to abandon the ABM treaty. I think this was one of the biggest blunders in post-Cold War development. 

Frank von Hippel  

There was also NATO expansion which really triggered off Russian paranoia that we were removing the buffer that they had created at the end of World War II to prevent an invasion. I think then Putin really sort of came in and we became enemies again.

Roald Sagdeev  

I have an interesting story about the change in Putin’s thoughts. Early in his presidency, Susan Eisenhower and I were invited to meet with him in Moscow. We had a private tea party at his dacha outside of Moscow. He offered to explain to us his vision of what’s happening. He said: “Look, we have a several thousand-kilometer-long common border with China. On the Russian side of the border, it’s almost empty with very little population. The Far East of Siberia is at a great risk. This is why we need a real strategic partnership with the United States.” Imagine, this [being said] in January of 1993. What’s happening now is that he is almost embracing the Chinese. 

Metta Spencer  

Okay. What do you think flipped him? I never liked Yeltsin, but I don’t think he was the one that turned everything sour. Looking back, I cannot reconstruct how things went from good to really pretty bad. I do know that the shock therapy thing seems to have affected public opinion in Russia, because I was going to institutes like the Institute of USA and Canada and so on. It used to be that everybody was so enthusiastic about meeting me or any Western academic. But within a few months, when I would go there and meet people, I was getting real personal hostility, as if I had personally caused the shock therapy. But this was also a time when I’d seen people selling their furniture and their clothing and their belongings out on the street for money or anything. So, clearly the shock therapy had a very bad influence on public opinion. But it is my impression that Yeltsin and Clinton stayed very friendly towards each other straight through. I kind of don’t think that was the influence that really made for what looks like a renewal of the Cold War. I would like your thoughts on that period. 

Roald Sagdeev  

I think the chemistry between Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin was exactly like that. They often spoke privately. Recently, some of the documents related to their interactions were released and published in Russia. One particular detail that I remember is that Clinton was warning Yeltsin to prepare for the news that they were going to do something with NATO in Europe. Yeltsin’s reaction was: “Can you please wait a few months? Because I am going for re-election.  Please do not spoil my chance of re-election.” 

Metta Spencer  

Well, he didn’t have much chance of honest re-election anyway. But I’ve heard that Clinton sent people to help him. You know, election officials, who knew how to rig things.

Roald Sagdeev  

The Russians call them political technologists. Those who know how to prepare for the elections. 

Metta Spencer  

Yeah. That didn’t sound too good to me. Okay. Now you left Russia and you seem to be able to go back. How did they react when you – so-called, if you don’t mind the expression – defected? 

Roald Sagdeev  

What happened? Velikhov later told me the whole story. The government created a special committee to evaluate potential leaks of national secrets. And Velikhov was a member of this committee. And he told me finally, after a number of sessions, they decided that the risk was zero because whatever this guy [I] knew was already obsolete and outdated. 

Metta Spencer  

Frank, do you remember that period and when things were on the downslide what was going wrong from your point of view?

Frank von Hippel  

Well, during the Yeltsin period, I was in the White House for a year and a half. We were working on a cooperative program to help the Russians strengthen the security over their nuclear materials. So, things were still I wide open there. But then after Putin came in, I think I made one trip to Arzamas [Arzamas-16] which was the second time I went. I actually went with my wife. We were invited and it was very difficult. They had difficulty getting us in. The idea of Americans visiting their sensitive installations was becoming very, very unpopular. And we could see that the security people around Putin were taking over and shutting down these sensitive visits. Roald would know whether a bubble formed around Putin where it became difficult for independent scientists to really have an impact at some point. 

Roald Sagdeev  

I think that reflects the story. Velikhov was still influential in the early part of Putin’s presidency. I don’t think so now. I have not seen him have serious influence during the last 10 years. 

Metta Spencer  

Well, when I talked to him, he was already sour on Gorbachev. And I wonder how much that kind of thing influenced public opinion and even the establishment. Toward the end of Gorbachev’s period, they really thought he was messing up badly, especially with the economy and of course with the rise of these nationalistic movements. I don’t know whether that was his perspective or not, but he was and some of the other people I met – like [Georgy] Arbatov – became quite critical of Gorbachev at a time when I thought Gorbachev needed a lot of help and support. I don’t know what it was like for people talking among scientists though and how much that influenced cooperation with Western scientists.

Roald Sagdeev  

I remember the days when and how Arbatov actually kind of slowly broke up with Gorbachev. And later on, Yeltsin appointed Arbatov as his advisor. I had almost a similar past in summer of 1988 because of some disagreement – not on science, but on internal political changes in perestroika. I also was excommunicated by Gorbachev. 

Metta Spencer  

Well, all right. So, there was a downhill slide. And it’s kind of kind of sad. Very sad, because if you guys were still riding high, we’d have solved all our problems long ago. And I think we’ve come toward the end of our time. Is there anything anybody would like to add that we haven’t covered? A recollection of any kind or advice? 

Frank von Hippel  

I’ll just add that public engagement with nuclear weapons issues is much less now than it was at that time. I think it was because people thought that the problem and danger, with the Cold War over, was gone. And I think the danger has always been accidental nuclear war happening without anybody intending to. I think that danger is still with us. 

Metta Spencer  

Absolutely. 

Frank von Hippel  

So, we’ve been trying to remind the public of that.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah, I agree. Thank you so much. This is wonderful. I’ve really enjoyed it. And I think somebody is gonna find this useful someday. Thank you both. It’s been fun.

Roald Sagdeev  

Thank you, Metta. Keep going on with your program.

Metta Spencer  

I will.

T248. Werbos, Computers, and God

346- Social Democracy

346- Social Democracy

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number: 346 
Panelists: Ed Broadbent
Host: Metta Spencer

Date Aired:  11 October 2021
Date Transcribed and Verified:  8 November 2021
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits: Adam Wynne

Synopsis: Ed Broadbent led the NDP for 15 years, then the government-funded institute Rights and Democracy and now the Broadbent Institute, which promotes social democracy.

Metta Spencer  

Hi, I’m Metta Spencer. If you are a Canadian social democrat or NDP person, this is your day. You get to talk to or listen to your biggest hero: Ed Broadbent. And this is going to be a real treat for me because I have admired this man for many, many years. And now I get an hour with him. So, hang on there, we’re going to have a conversation about social democracy. He’s in Ottawa, I think. Is that where you live nowadays? 

Ed Broadbent  

Yes, indeed. That’s where I am. 

Metta Spencer  

Well, good morning, Ed Broadbent. Hi. 

Ed Broadbent  

Good morning to you. It’s a pleasure to be with you.

Metta Spencer  

Let’s have some conversation about social democracy. We already started a little while ago, when I said that I just been reading a Wikipedia article which only muddied the subject and tried to make a distinction between social democracy and democratic socialism, which I thought was bizarre. But you were going to try to clear my head and we ran out of time. So, start over, will you? 

Ed Broadbent  

Let me begin by saying I always used to use it when I was an active politician. I use the terms synonymously: democratic socialism or social democracy. But historically, some people quite plausibly in the way I talk now – academically – do make a distinction between social democracy and socialism. The distinction being social democracy has a role for the private sector in terms of market mechanisms, which socialism as such does not. And so that’s a distinction. Both, I would emphasize are democratic in nature. But the one, as I say, has a clear role for the private sector. Maybe we’ll get to elaborate on what that means in practice.

Metta Spencer  

Are there parties, some of which call themselves Social Democrats and others say they’re only Democratic Socialists? Are there real party differences or is this a matter of picking a certain kind of adjective?

Ed Broadbent  

Largely, it’s a matter of picking a certain kind of adjective now.

Metta Spencer  

Okay. All right, then I don’t think we need to labour the subject, because I find it tedious.

Ed Broadbent  

Pretty boring, right?

Metta Spencer  

But what isn’t tedious is talking with you about your own life and your own career line. Because, of course, the first time I knew about you, you were the leader of the NDP and I was an acolyte. But I haven’t been so engaged lately and nor have you. For how many years? You stepped down from that role when? 

Ed Broadbent  

In 1989. At the end of the year in 1989. After some 21 years in politics. 15 of which were as leader of the NDP.

Metta Spencer  

All right. So, after that, at some point, you’ve had two post-career careers. In that you’ve been the leader of two different institutions and you probably have done other things that I don’t know about, which I would like to hear about. But tell me… I’d like to explore these two roles or these two institutions.

Ed Broadbent  

The first one was a creation of the Government of Canada: an institution that became known as Rights and Democracy. And it was set up following the recommendation of then all three parties in the House of Commons: the Liberals, Conservatives, and New Democrats. A committee report that looked at violence in Central America in the 1980s provided a foundation for saying that the Government of Canada should create an institution that would operate at arm’s length from the government and not controlled by the government. The mandate of which would be the promotion of the UN system of human rights abroad. So it had a mandate not for human rights within Canada, but for human rights activism abroad. So, the Covenant on Political and Civil Rights and the Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights were to be promoted abroad and that institution was set up. And then if I may say so: it thrived. Not just while I was there, but after Warren Allmand – a very distinguished former cabinet minister in Pierre Trudeau’s government. Warren Allmand succeeded me and there were a couple of other executive directors too. And the activity was very well recognized internationally, by activist groups all over the world and by UN agencies interested in the promotion of rights. Unfortunately, Stephen Harper shut it down. He was the first prime minister to actually interfere in the operation of the institution. Up to then, both liberal and conservative Prime Ministers kept their hands off and respected the integrity and independence of Rights and Democracy. But Mr. Harper chose, first of all, to appoint some people that were highly partisan and highly – and I choose my words with care – right-wing in terms of international politics. And this led to major clashes between the boards of directors and the staff of Rights and Democracy. And ultimately, what happened is that the Harper government shut it down because it basically couldn’t tolerate an institution that was operating independently of the Government of Canada.

Metta Spencer  

Well, let’s consider what were some of those disputes. Was this that the Harper appointees favoured some right-wing governments that actually were not mindful of human rights or even were abusive themselves? 

Ed Broadbent  

The principle focus for the government – the Harper government – was on Israel and Middle East politics. 

Metta Spencer  

Oh boy.

Ed Broadbent  

And what it objected to specifically was the recognition of the support of human rights groups that worked both within the Occupied Territories and within Israel itself. There were human rights groups – internationally recognized to be independent – that made criticism at different and various times both of certain Palestinian activities and of the activities of the Government of Israel. And the Harper government could not tolerate and would not tolerate any criticism of Israel. And it was tragic that this kind of focus of the Harper government, as I say: the first Canadian government to actually interfere with the running of Rights and Democracy. This narrow and intolerant attitude by Mr. Harper led to conflict and then ultimately they decided to shut the institution down. Though I repeat, by then I had no direct connection at that point. But other people who succeeded me and a very lively activist staff had all obtained international recognition for very good work. But the Harper government, as I say, could not tolerate or would not tolerate independent activity in this when it came to Middle Eastern politics.

Metta Spencer  

Let me go slightly off of topic because what you’re reminding me of is the recent kerfuffle in Britain about Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership of a group that was deemed anti-Semitic. I was astonished that left wing parties or whole movements or whole parties in a Western society could still be called something like anti-Semitic. But of course, I haven’t lived in Britain. I have no idea what they’re all about. Is this something that happens? I mean I had been dumbfounded. Who would call anybody anti-Semitic anymore?

Ed Broadbent  

There are groups that are accused of it, but in the case of the British Labour Party – and I won’t pretend to know in detail and want to emphasize that – but the accusation was that the then leader Mr. Corbyn failed to deal with certain members of the Labour Party who had indulged in anti-Semitic activity. Not that the Labour Party itself was, nor was it suggested that Mr. Corbyn was himself. He was criticized for the failure of leadership, if you like, for not dealing with accusations of anti-Semitism accurately. I would say you have this problem in almost any party in the Western world. There will be and can be elements of anti-Semitism or Islamophobia or whatever that occur with particular individuals. But we shouldn’t make blanket claims about the parties or institutions that they happen to belong to.

Metta Spencer  

We could veer off and talk about what’s going on in the Green Party right now in Canada. A very similar thing, but I think that would be really going afield. Let’s go back to where you were. You were telling me about the demise of the Rights and Democracy. What was the entire title of it?

Ed Broadbent  

While the original title in legislation is one of those linguistic abominations and it was the International Center for Human Rights and Democratic Development. That’s what it was when I became the Executive Director. That eventually became sensibly just called Rights and Democracy.

Metta Spencer  

Okay. Now there are other similar organizations run by other western states, right?

Ed Broadbent  

Not many. There are some that some Scandinavian governments have. But this was, at the time, a particularly important Canadian initiative. As I said, it was supported by all the parties in the House of Commons at the time and it was given, for example, if I can make a comparison with the United States: the US Congress has established a couple of entities that promote democracy abroad, but they are more closely and directly affiliated with either the Democratic Party or Republican Party in the US. And what was distinctive about the Canadian initiative, is that it was not to be associated with any political party as such, but was to have a mandate to promote the UN system of human rights and democratic development – as opposed to say, the American model, which is to promote a version of American democracy abroad. So, the Canadian government in its wisdom said: “Oh, let’s have really international body here.” And we were. We got accredited by the UN and we were recognized by governments. When I went as the Executive Director to Latin American countries or in South Asia, I was normally greeted by the Prime minister or President. Because on the one hand, we were a creation of the Government of Canada. So, I had that status. But on the other hand, our mandate was independent and not partisan and that came to be recognized, understood, and supported broadly abroad.

Metta Spencer  

Well, I remember feeling very disappointed at the time. It was a big mess. But now, when did your own Broadbent Institute get founded and how did that come about?

Ed Broadbent  

Well, just about 10 years ago. To be precise, it was an emanation of conversations with Jack Layton and other associates of mine. Near the end of Jack’s life, some of us had for some time talked about the need for an institution that would be independent of the party in this context, but specifically social democratic. So, it would be clear in terms of the kind of political system we wanted to promote. I was asked by a number of senior staff people of Jack Layton at that time if I would lend my name to it and would I be it first active chairperson. And I agreed to that, because I thought it was a good idea to have such a body that would function independently of the party, but have social democratic values. So that’s how it came into being.

Metta Spencer  

Is it funded by the NDP or independently? 

Ed Broadbent  

Initially, money came from the NDP for the first year and its start up. But since then, it’s been totally independent of the NDP in every regard. We’re not, of course, hostile to the NDP no more than we’re hostile to other parties. But we function as a social democratic [organization].

Metta Spencer  

My guess is this… tell me if I’m wrong: The lines between a number of centrist to leftist parties globally are blurring now. That you can’t just by looking at a platform guess whether a particular platform represents one party or another one necessarily. Is that fair to say? 

Ed Broadbent  

I actually think it is going in the other direction now. 

Metta Spencer  

Really? 

Ed Broadbent  

A few years ago, particularly in association with Tony Blair, as leader of the Labour Party and subsequently Prime Minister, moved his particular party to the right. Clearly in terms of its political behavior and accepting a high degree of marketization of life. Quite a conscious turning its back on social democratic views as they traditionally have been understood while there followed a period where the center left parties – like Labour or the German Social Democrats or the French Socialist Party – moved to the right or to the center. And then the distinctions between the parties became very blurred indeed. But I would argue that there’s been a reemergence now of more clear classification of parties. Look at what’s happening in the United States, for example. There is a clear and distinct ideological as well as programmatic distinction between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. There’s much clearer differences between those two parties now than there were in a pre-Trump era and the pre-Biden era. Mr. Biden clearly has moved the democratic party or the Democratic Party moved him well to the left of where they were under Mr. Obama or even earlier presidents. The present leader and president of the Democratic party with him in the United States – Mr. Biden – has really reconstituted a kind of Rooseveltian activism. A positive view of the state that would intervene to produce greater equality in US society. So, that is making a distinction between parties in the US, not a blurring of them.

Ed Broadbent  

Well, yes, but I wasn’t meaning that the right wing and the center and left are all blurring together, but only that the center and the left are closer together. For example, in Germany now: I think they’re quite confused about what they’re going to have by way of a new government, because I guess the SDP won, but by hair’s breadth. Right? 

Ed Broadbent  

Right.

Metta Spencer  

As of this minute, maybe if I didn’t look at the newspaper today, I would be wrong. 

[both chuckle] 

Metta Spencer  

I would assume, of course, any centrist government for the Christian Democrats, for example, would have a hard time making any kind of coalition with the AfD. The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is clearly a right-wing party. You couldn’t make a deal with those guys. But, for them to make a deal with the Greens, for example, or the SPD would be easy. Even the Christian Democrats and SPD and Greens could. Could that blur together? 

Ed Broadbent  

Yes. And Ms. Merkel has – and I say this as a social democrat about her as a Christian Democrat – provided a high degree of quite civilized and stabilizing government over Germany for the past 15 years. A remarkable accomplishment. And has done so very often – which does go back to your point – with the support in her government of the SPD. The man who is now leading the SPD and has a legitimate claim to be the next Chancellor was her Minister of Finance. He is now claiming with a great mandate of about 1.5% over the Christian Democrats, his right to form a government which is trying to do with – as I understand it – the Green Party and a more market oriented smaller party. But in Germany, your contention about the parties moving closer together, I think is accurate. And a number of people in the SPD have been critical of the leadership of the SPD for becoming too conservative. But we’ll see what happens now.

Metta Spencer  

You wouldn’t expect very dramatic changes of policy? Well, in fact, what changes would you expect if the SPD were flying under its own colours entirely? What kinds of changes would you expect Germany to take from the Merkel government?

Ed Broadbent  

Well, labour market policies, workers trade union rights, and a focus on employment prospects in general and inequality in the tax system. The SPD have talked about that as well. So, there would be – in those instances – moves, I think, by the SPD in a clear social democratic direction.

Metta Spencer  

How different would you say these two wings of the Democratic Party are? I would assume that you would call – well, Bernie Sanders himself would call himself a socialist and so does Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and others. And yet, by and large, the project that they propose – the Green New Deal – I would say that Biden has bought into a lot of it.

Ed Broadbent  

You’re raising the question about the left wing of the Democratic Party and how different is it from the other parts of the party? Is that the question? Well, it is distinctly different, I think. The Bernie Sanders wing – if I can put it like that – is very much like the NDP actually, if you look at their program. And whether it’s on the environment, whether it’s dealing with inequality, you name it, it’s a left social democratic agenda of very serious proportions that everybody in the US has acknowledged has really shifted the democratic party to the left and with great support of the American people. Overwhelmingly. The interesting discussion – just in the past few days before our discussion here – is the decision of Mr. Biden in choosing between the two branches of his party that are currently in some, you know, conflict over what kind of agenda they would support. He’s come down on the side of the of the left wing of the Democratic Party. And correctly pointing out, I believe, that the things they are advocating are supported by the majority of Americans. And polling shows that. So, there are differences between the wings in the Democratic Party, as there are in most democratic parties. But here they can be more serious in conflict, because of the institutional structure of the American government and of the need to have so many senate votes and so many house votes. For example, they need every vote in the Senate that they can get to pass legislation and they’re having trouble with some obstreperous so-called moderates that may deny them the agenda because of the 50-vote requirement. Well, because of these factors, the resolution of the differences between the wings of the Democratic Party are quite serious in their political consequences. So, one hopes, I hope, there’s a man who, broadly speaking, is supported the democratic agenda. Mr. Biden, I hope he’s successful in bringing the two wings of his party together.

Metta Spencer  

Okay, now they would call their platform the Green New Deal, right? And there are in other countries similar platforms, proposals, and whole agendas for social change, which emphasize a lot of green, environmental, and climate change things. Compare that to the difference between the Green Party and the NDP in Canada. Would you call the Green New Deal comparable to the NDPs position on everything? Or how would it differ?

Ed Broadbent  

 I can’t get into detail because I don’t know the American details well enough to do that. But in broad principles, I can. I mean, the Green New Deal in the US and similar to the Green New Deal of the NDP here is to help for a just transition away from fossil fuels dependencies. In both countries, the progressive elements favour that kind of approach. It will break down in different details, as the different requirements of the two countries would necessitate. But philosophically, it’s the same orientation. So, an American that was supporting the Green New Deal in the US and moved to Canada would be happily, I think, situated in the NDP and could well be happily and socially associated with the Green Party as well.

Metta Spencer  

Okay, there’s the question. How compatible are these two parties? And if they’re so compatible, why aren’t they merged?

Ed Broadbent  

Well, I’ve felt that way for a long time. I didn’t see – as unbiased as I’m not – the necessity of creating a new Green Party when the NDP was leading in environmental matters in the House of Commons for many years. So, I think it was unnecessary. But I respect those who wanted to put perhaps a greater emphasis on environmental policies than was the case in the NDP. But I think it was a mistake politically. I think the NDP had a broad ranging environmental policy, as well as being concerned about inequality, for example. 

Metta Spencer  

Inequality, for sure, that seems to be the real hallmark of any Social Democratic Party. I was pretty enthusiastically a NDPer for a long, long time. And then I got mad. I really have two different grievances with the party and that is, in fact, I’m indifferent. I’m not very active at all in that regard, because I wish the NDP – and in the US the Green New Deal people – would include militarism as a problem. I would like to see a cut back on military spending and diversion of that funding to all kinds of other social projects, including a high emphasis on climate change issues. That bothers me the most. And then the time I really got mad at Jack Layton was when he would not support the carbon tax which Stéphane Dion was proposing at the time. You know and the basis for it was, I think, that the NDP is so fervently committed to labour and labor doesn’t want to lose jobs, so he wouldn’t take any stand in favour of carbon tax. But, the most important thing that can be done for climate change is a good, strong carbon tax. So, I’ve harbored my grievances all these years and now I’m going to dump them all over you.

Ed Broadbent  

I would agree with you on the carbon tax issue and the party is certainly, under its present leader, strongly supportive of the carbon tax and all its provincial elements, including the Ontario NDP. The British Columbia Government, I think, was the first provincial government to enter into an agreement with the federal government on a carbon tax. In any case, they support it. So, there’s broad support for a carbon tax now. Maybe I managed to block out of my memory Jack’s original position on the carbon tax. I quite honestly have forgot. I’m going to have to accept your word for this and check it out later. I’m sure you’re not just misleading me, but I had forgotten that at one point. As you say, Jack opposed the carbon tax. You’re quite sure of that, are you? 

Metta Spencer  

Oh, I wrote him a letter and scolded him and said I was quitting the party. 

Ed Broadbent  

That should have done it. 

Metta Spencer  

Well, he didn’t apologize. 

[both chuckle]

Metta Spencer  

Okay, well, we have gone around in a circuitous direction to what you really most want to talk about. The general principles of social democracy. I assume you are the quintessential representative of social democratic thinking in Canada. So, what are your principles, sir?

Ed Broadbent  

Well, we laid them out in the document that we adopted earlier this year. But if I can put it in broad terms there are two key elements, I believe, of any approach to a social democratic view of society. One is the abominable word decommodification; but it’s a word with rather precise meaning. The main meaning is to take out of the market mechanism in our life in our society, the production of certain goods and services and make them a matter of rights, instead of a matter or substance that you buy in the marketplace. That is an absolutely crucial idea. For example, when Tommy Douglas was working so many decades ago in good ol’ prairie Saskatchewan on the development of universal Medicare, he didn’t say to himself: “Well, is it cheaper or is it more efficient?” Although it’s important to have these qualities, he said: “Should human beings have this as a right? Should they have access to health care because they’re human beings and citizens of Canada?” And not because they can buy it in the marketplace. And that is so crucial. I mean, if you look at the broad history of Canada, one of the first things to be commodified – and we never think of it in these terms – was high school education. In the 19th century, if you were going to educate your children beyond the elementary school level you would pay to go to some other institution to provide what we call high school level education today. Well, the decision was appropriately made by governments pretty soon to establish – as a universal right for kids growing up – access to high school education and not just elementary school. And that principle has been extended to health care. And we in the NDP, for example, have been leading the battle to extend it to pharmacare in our generation as a national program and we’re, of course, first to advocate childcare. Low-cost provision by government of childcare facilities that are now being done, acknowledged by a Liberal government that has been promising to do it, mind you, for about 30 years. But the principle – I come back to that – is that you fight for these things, because they are rights of citizenship and you want to take them out of the market. Not necessarily because they’re cheaper, although they normally are if we provide it as a universal service – as we found out, for example, in the senior citizens’ long-term care residences.

Metta Spencer  

I want to come back to that. I remember reading a book you wrote some 15 years ago or so. The thing that I came away with, which impressed me most and I still remember, is that you were arguing that whenever you want to provide a new service for – probably the people who need it will be the poor in the society – the smart thing to do is not just to give a means test and offer it to the people who fit within the criteria of poverty or whatever need would entitle them to it, but rather to make it equally available to all citizens. And that is much more sustainable and it causes less divisiveness within the society. 

Ed Broadbent  

Yes.

Metta Spencer  

 I remember being very impressed by that argument. And I presume you still maintain that? 

Ed Broadbent  

Very much so. That’s the reason behind those – whatever party they happen to be in and overwhelmingly they’re in the NDP – people who advocate universal programs is for that reason. It’s to build up solidarity, by all citizens that we all get that benefit. And then if, you know, people say: “Well, why should rich people have it?” Well, rich people have access to elementary schools, just like the rest of the kids in the neighborhood. And then they pay or ought to pay just proportionately more in their income taxes. The higher income you have, the greater should be your contribution to the common good. And that common good would include things like childcare, for example, in the future pharmacare, or the Canada Pension. These are benefits that should be available to all Canadians and paid for on the basis of capacity to pay. And so, that’s a key idea, if I may say so, about social democracy. It’s to launch into programs like that and to get them out of the market. So, growing up, we don’t have to compete in the market for these things in our lives. We get them because they’re provided by the state, but we all pay taxes into the state too. So, it’s not a free ride, right? And the other the other aspect of social democracy that I think is key, is the notion of equality. Inequality is a big concern, especially in a market economy. By definition in the market economy, you’re going to have inequalities and a serious social democratic government addresses these inequalities, primarily by the taxes so that those who have more will pay more of their share. And as is being talked about. Literally today yet another report was published – from the United Nations, I understand – which is showing how so many rich people around the world are managing to create tax havens where they ship their money off and they have it in these havens and don’t pay any income tax on it. Well, that’s got to change.

Metta Spencer  

Absolutely it has to change. But also, I wonder, have you officially personally taken a position about wealth tax? Reading Piketty – 10 years ago or so – I was immediately impressed with the idea that that would be a big step forward to actually tax not only income, but even more to tax wealth, because the inequalities that have already been created are self-maintaining and even growing. Obviously, we know that the rich have gotten richer, even during the COVID epidemic.

Ed Broadbent  

Yes, and by accumulation of wealth and not just income. And yes, we at the Broadbent Institute favour a wealth tax and I’m pleased to see that the New Democratic Party in the recent federal election, under Mr. Singh, has promoted the idea of a wealth tax as well. So that too would contribute to a society of greater equality. The other thing that I would stress about more equality being necessary is that the studies have shown that the more equality you have, the overall effect on society is better. Health outcomes, for example, are much better and more equally distributed if you have a reduced gap between people on the basis of income. Crime rates are lower in the more equal society you have. Almost every social indicator shows more positive outcomes the more equal the society is. So, the two key ideas of social democracy, among others, but the two key are: taking certain values out of the market – like health care – and providing them as rights; and secondly, to be concerned about inequality and use the power of government – democratic government and taxation – to reduce inequalities in our society,

Metta Spencer  

I read some of the positions on your website under the heading of social democracy and they seem to have to deal with economic issues. One of them being long term care. And I noticed in today’s paper, that there’s again talk about changing the system. Now I have a friend – Pauline Rosenau – who was on this talk show last week. She was part of a study of long-term care or nursing home care in, I think, five or six different countries. So, it was a major study just not too long ago. And they found the non-profit nursing homes were much better by and large than the profit seeking ones. They actually took better care of people. Canada wasn’t really all that much better – well, the US was the worst, as you might expect – but Canada was not at the top. I think Sweden was maybe at the top and some of the other countries that you would expect to be. But now, I believe your Institute and the website have proposed that long term care be part of Medicare, that it’s just another right or entitlement which everybody would have. Now, I don’t know how far the Canadian government has gone in that direction, I know that there’s some kind of care available to everybody who’s old and weak, but I don’t know what kind of changes would be involved in simply making it an entitlement for everybody.

Ed Broadbent  

Well, it would be a substantial bureaucratic change to implement it that way. But the wording is designed to show that it would become a right like Medicare. Like, you know, we now have access to any hospital treatment that we want regardless of your income. Similarly, we’re saying there should be access to long term care residences on that basis. Now, that would mean by necessity that you have to create literally 1000s of new spaces across Canada to make that an operational right. But that’s exactly what needs to be done. And it can’t be done overnight. As you’ve indicated, studies have shown that not-for-profit, long-term care has better results, better outcomes for patients than as the profit-oriented model. So, we have to go into the direction of non-profit public facilities and that would take time to implement, but every aspect of our healthcare system has taken time to implement. And if we started on that now with an agenda, with so much in the federal expenditure each year, over time we can make that an effective right. And of course, in this domain, it should be a cost sharing arrangement of some kind with the provinces, just as existing health care funding is.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah. Also, the paper I read today was talking about just plain, sort-of humanizing the experience of living in a long-term facility. That people now really don’t have much choice of what time of day they’re to eat or the what the menu is going to be or how to spend their time. They don’t have enough help. This recommended that at least four hours a day of direct personal assistance be available to every person living in such a place. As well, as the residents being allowed to plan their own day and schedule, whether they want to move around and, you know, how they’re going to spend their time and have a little bit more [freedom] and be treated as a home instead of a patient in a hospital.

Ed Broadbent  

That sounds good to me. I may get there one day.

Metta Spencer  

Well, you and me too. Any day now. 

[both chuckle]

Metta Spencer  

I do like that idea. So okay, and now, what do you foresee for the future of the Broadbent Institute? By the way, I see it as focusing very much on just Canada. 

Ed Broadbent  

That’s true.

Metta Spencer  

And also, very much on the economic end of things. I didn’t see much about foreign policy or certainly about military policy. 

Ed Broadbent  

That’s true, we have limited resources and we are trying to be sure we know what we’re talking about. We’ve quite consciously stayed away from foreign policy, for example, as an institute. Of course, we’ll take part as individuals in foreign policy debates and related matters. But as an institute, we’ve decided not to do that at this point, because of the limitations of resources and funding. We have to generate donations to keep ourselves in existence. And so, we’ve just drawn the line at certain kinds of activity.

Metta Spencer  

When you talk about social democracy, would you say there is a general orientation with respect to international relations or is it just a question of how to allocate economic resources?

Ed Broadbent  

No. I would say social democratic philosophy has as its basic, important raison d’être the pursuit of peace. A man that I was close to for a number of years was Willy Brandt who had been Chancellor of West Germany. He had a very distinguished reputation: an anti-Nazi career as a young man and then became Chancellor of West Germany. And he was known for his so called Ostpolitik which was an opening or trying to open relations between the West and the East, which at that time were divided between the Communist world and the non-Communist world. And he strove quite seriously – I know from talking to him and from observing them- to have built peace-making institutions globally. So, my own view is that social democracy in its essence really does want to work towards a peaceful world and with much less emphasis on spending on militarization. To get away from that as a philosophic goal there’s no doubt about that in my view.

Metta Spencer  

I think for a lot of peace organizations – I’m thinking, for example, of the International Peace Bureau, which I was engaged with on the Steering Committee a long-time ago and a number of them and Peace Magazine and our own Project Save the World, which is what I’m doing right now – the orientation has been more lately toward a broadening of the concept of what are the issues that have to be considered along with just the military. That is, I think, the connection with global warming, you can’t ignore it. The connection to famine, the possibility of pandemics as we’ve seen. We talk about radioactive contamination and the risks of, you know, mining hazards and things like that or other kinds of exposure to radiation or radioactivity. And cyber risks. All of those are part of what we consider not just peace, but a broader agenda. I think really most of these issues need to be addressed comprehensively with a with a big platform with a lot of items on it.

Ed Broadbent  

I would say you’re absolutely right. I would agree with all of the above. For sure.  I’m afraid I’m going to have to go.

Metta Spencer  

Well, it’s time anyway. We’ve used up our time pretty much and I have enjoyed very much the opportunity to talk to you.

Ed Broadbent  

I’ve enjoyed it too. Good luck in your work.

Metta Spencer  

Thank you so much. And in yours. Continue with your wonderful leadership.

Ed Broadbent  

Thank you. Take care. Bye bye.

T248. Werbos, Computers, and God

288 – Afghanistan and Non-Proliferation

288 - Afghanistan and Nonproliferation

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number: 288
Panelists: Richard Denton, Corey Levine, Tariq Rauf, Doug Saunders, and Erika Simpson
Host: Metta Spencer

Date Aired:  13 July 2021
Date Transcribed and Verified: 7 September 2021
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits: Adam Wynne

Synopsis: The Afghanistan War has changed quickly since the US and NATO troops withdrew. Corey Levine, Tariq Rauf, Erika Simpson and Richard Denton expect a Taliban win.

Metta Spencer  

Hi, I’m Metta Spencer. Today we’re going to go talk about nuclear non-proliferation, because there is a Review Conference coming up in a few months and we’re going to consider what should be done about it. But we have some very diverse secondary interests of all the people on this panel today, somebody is interested in Cuba, somebody else is interested in Afghanistan. So, we may go off in who knows what direction because this is a Schmooze Day. That means you don’t have to stick to the topic. It means you can talk about whatever is of interest. So, I have five brilliant panelists today visiting me on my computer. And I will go from left to right: Doug Saunders is a correspondent or a columnist for The Globe and Mail and he’s been explaining to Erika that he’s about to go off to Germany in another month or so for another extended stay to do some research for a book. So next is Erika Simpson, who is an Associate Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at Western University in London, Ontario. She’s an expert on NATO. And here in the middle of this list on my screen is Corey Levine. Corey is in Victoria, British Columbia at the moment, but just recently returned from a stint in Afghanistan, where you were working for UN Women. And in Vienna, we have Tariq Rauf who is a longtime consultant, an expert on all things nuclear – so nuclear weapons and I know that you also worked at the IAEA, so you must have your fingers in other pies as well. So hello, Tariq. And in Sudbury, Richard Denton has just joined us. He is the Co-Chair of the North American Chapter of International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, which means that he knows a thing or two about nuclear weapons and also things like gamma rays. Why don’t we talk about the past and future of Afghanistan? What’s going to happen there? And what is already unfortunately happening? Corey, what’s going on? 

Corey Levine  

Well, that is a very interesting question. It a $64 billion question. I’ve only been back a couple of weeks. And even in the couple of weeks since I’ve returned, things have changed with lightning speed on the ground. I don’t think anyone expected the Taliban to militarily make as many gains as they’ve had. They’re taking over DACs – District Administrative Centers – left, right, and center. They’re basically knocking on the doors of the major urban centers – for example, Kandahar. They’ve actually taken over some of the provincial capitals already. So, you know, experts have been predicting that the government would fall within six months. I’m wondering if that timeline can be pushed up. I have no idea of what’s going to happen with Kabul. I would be interested to hear what Doug, Erika, and others may have to say about that. The Taliban have claimed that they’ve changed their stripes – that “We’ve changed. We are now a new modern, forward Taliban” – but [there are] reports coming in from the areas that they control – and I was actually talking with an Afghan women parliamentarian last night – are extremely concerning. We know that they’re closing girls’ schools. The parliamentarian was informing me that the Taliban are back to their tactics of night letters, sending night letters to women in Nangarhar province saying: “If you don’t stop working, we can’t be blamed for what may happen to you.” Women are being beaten for not having Mahrams, which are male relative escorts in the streets. And more horror stories like this. So, this is what constituents are reporting to their parliamentarians.

Tariq Rauf  

I’ve been following it a little bit. And I agree with what Corey said. I am of the opinion that the Taliban have not changed their stripes. They are just being politic in what they are saying. And I think the report are a little bit exaggerated that they now control 85% of the country. Apparently, the Afghan forces in many remote areas have not been properly supplied because of corruption and they are running out of ammunition. So those who are soldiers are surrendering. But I think it will be quite a fight for them to take the major urban centers. And Afghanistan is lightly populated in in many different areas. So, I also see, I think, some sort of a civil war coming, unfortunately, because some of the warlords and tribal leaders will be activated who have different agendas than the Taliban themselves. And then we have the neighboring countries, Iran, Pakistan, China, Russia, they all have their different agendas. India as well. So, there will be some other proxy battles coming to Afghanistan. So I personally, unfortunately, am not very optimistic over the shorter to the medium term about stability, peace, human rights, and women’s rights in particular in Afghanistan.

Metta Spencer  

Erika? 

Erika Simpson  

Thank you, Metta.  I work on NATO issues, but I also work on Afghanistan and on security sector reform issues. So, on that topic, I wanted to mention that the Afghan national security forces are going to get 37 Blackhawk helicopters and all sorts of equipment from the US, although NATO has pulled out. So, the Italian, the Germans, and NATO have entirely pulled out as of last few weeks and the US is retaining some forces there to protect… I mean, I’m sympathetic Corey towards your argument about Kabul falling, but I think Kabul will not fall and the international airport will not fall, because internationally, that would look like Saigon in 1975 again. It would look terrible. And so, the US will be forced somehow to stay with a limited force and assisting the Afghan National Army, the Defense Force, and the Police. So on that score, I’m very sympathetic to what you’re saying, Corey, about what the Taliban is doing to women in the rural areas. But what I’m hearing from people in Afghanistan is that it’s a bit of propaganda – The New York Times – it’s a bit exaggerated about the number of districts. There are 400 districts. So, they’re saying that the Taliban have taken over – in the last few days – 160 [districts]. But the Afghan forces are saying that they’re securing them back again. So, Tariq’s point about a civil war is very valid as well, that there will be a civil war there for the long term for generations to come, but I’m optimistic that they’ll preserve the capital and perhaps Kandahar City.

Doug Saunders  

I’d be interested in hearing not how many districts the Taliban claimed to have achieved political control over, but how much of Afghanistan they have economic control over or control over trade routes. My knowledge of Afghanistan is out of date. I haven’t been there since a decade ago. But it always seemed to be true and it still seems to be true that whether a specific Afghan man was a fighter for the Afghan National Army or for the Taliban depended on the ability to pay him. And all the work we did found that the motivation for most Taliban fighters was self-interested economic concerns rather than necessarily ideology or anything. And that even during the height of the occupation and the military operations, Taliban related forces managed to control a large amount of the poppy economy and whatever there was of a non-poppy economy by controlling passage down roads and what farmers could grow and that sort of thing. So, I could imagine that would only get worse. I would say: if the Afghan government is stuck with Kabul is sort of a stronghold, that not going to be much of an Afghanistan. And I fear that bridge may already have been crossed. That we were never really able to give the Afghan government secure control over trade and economy.

Erika Simpson  

I think if I can add to what you’re saying, Doug, I think the only real difference now is that the Pakistan government is involved and is sending mercenaries in. So, I know the Afghanistan government has already captured 1417 Pakistani mercenaries. Pakistan is very involved in tipping that strategic area. I’d be curious what you think about the change [and] the shift in politics, because – as you know – Afghanistan has always been kind of a zone of fighting. So, if Pakistan takes over, how will that tip politics with India and with China? That’s interesting to me. I’m also obviously interested in women and schools and so on, but just looking at the larger strategic picture with Pakistan involved. 

Corey Levine  

To be clear, I’m not saying that Kabul is going to fall or won’t fall. There will be an incredible fight for it. That is for sure. It will take a long time to sort out what will happen to Kabul. So first of all, let me be clear on that. I do think the Taliban will be successful at taking over pretty much the rest of the country. In regards to Kabul, who knows what is going to happen. I think in the other urban centers – Herat, Jalalabad, Mazar-i-Sharif, and Kandahar – there’s also going to be problems. But I think to go back to Doug’s point, first of all: the Taliban is in the north now, which they had not been previously. They are controlling main trade roads and routes in and out of Afghanistan. Secondly, Pakistan is not the only spoiler in this conflict currently. There are mercenaries in there that are from many other countries, not just Pakistan. There is also ISIS in there. And other groups that didn’t exist when the Taliban controlled the country before. So, I think it’s a very different landscape than when the Taliban was in control of the country in the 1990s. I think Tariq already made the point that we have Iran in there. We have China and Russia, etcetera. Turkey has become a big player [too]. Someone mentioned the airport. The Americans negotiated with the Taliban to have the Turks take over control of Kabul airport. And, you know, in the end they agreed. The Taliban agreed to that. So, I think the airport is secure for the time being. But I’m just aghast at how things… as I said, I’ve only returned a couple of weeks and things have already changed lightning fast. Erika, your point about how many districts do the Taliban really control? We can’t know this, but they are advancing. Afghan security forces are surrendering. They are not putting up a fight, despite the billions of dollars that have been put into training. And one last point that I want to say – and actually the women parliamentarians were racing this with me last night – is the Afghan Air Force. Once it’s completely turned over to the Afghan Air Force to defend the sky, they will not be able to do that. 

Erika Simpson  

That’s the only part I disagree with you on, Corey, because they did buy a very good air defense system from the French about year ago and they purposely did so to not be reliant on the Americans. So, the Afghan Air Force is actually very capable and has been trained and will continue to be trained by the Americans. If we’re looking at air power, that’s the only point I disagree with you on. I actually think that they will be able to triumph. If that’s the word you want to use, I hate to say that. They will be able to – in terms of air power – protect the urban cities. But the devastation on the ground, we will not have reporters like Doug Saunders sending us grim and horrible photos, because nobody’s there. It’s going to be awful. It’s going to be a bloodbath. And past September. I don’t blame Joe Biden, I understand the reasoning for pulling out and for NATO pulling out after 20 years by 9/11, by September 11. But still, it must be awful for you knowing people on the ground, Corey, I’m very sympathetic. I wish we had more reporters.

Metta Spencer  

Does anybody have a theory about what could have been done differently that would have had a different outcome? This whole fiasco. 20 some years of nothing but trouble, confusion, and failure. What should have happened instead and was there any alternative?

Tariq Rauf  

I would like to focus more on what’s going to happen because what has happened has happened. I think we don’t have that much time. But I would sort of disagree with some of the points made. I don’t think the Taliban have agreed that the Turks will control the Kabul airport. I was just hearing some news conferences – supposedly from the Taliban spokesperson – and they are insisting that they will not accept the Turks or any foreign forces after the end of July… I forget what date that they mentioned. They specifically mentioned Turkey. So, I think this is still a question mark. Part of the challenge of the Afghan forces is supplying their far-flung units and the ones that are surrendering mainly are those that have run out of ammunition. And once they’re out of ammunition, their choice is either to be killed or to surrender. And unfortunately, some special forces that surrendered have been murdered in cold blood by the Taliban, including apparently some reports of the killing of seven pilots that they captured at some particular location. Even during the time of the Afghan Kings and then afterwards… Afghanistan has always been controlled by a number of warring warlords. The central power remains in Kabul as a sort of loose controlling thing. So, they’ve never really had an effective central government. I don’t know whether they will revert to that or not. And finally, NATO forces and the US forces never won the hearts and minds of the Afghan people. They basically hated most of these foreign forces. There are, of course, exceptions. But generally, the way the kill and capture missions of bursting into people’s houses in the middle of the night and going into areas where their women were staying insulted a lot of these people. They just felt insulted in terms of the way they were treated by soldiers of the international forces. Many of them were really not used to the cultural norms and were rarely perceived to be rude and so on. Then, finally, with regard to Pakistan, it has the longest border with Afghanistan. For more than 20 years, it has nearly 3 million Afghan refugees still in there. These people brought the gun culture to the Pakistani society. So, there is now a proxy battle between India and Pakistan. In Afghanistan, the Pakistanis are reporting and showing videos of Indian Air Force transport planes flying through Iranian airspace and bringing weapons to support their supporters in India. So, these so-called infiltrators from Pakistan… I don’t know who they are… whether they are Afghans from the refugee camp. In that case, they wouldn’t be mercenaries, they would be Afghans returning to fight whatever battles they want to fight in Afghanistan. Then you have the Chinese economic interest, you have the Russian interest that this Islamic fundamentalism of the Taliban doesn’t go into the Central Asian republics. I think this is also a problem for the current Pakistani government. That the Pakistani religious extremists will gain even more power in Pakistan than they have. And finally, Taliban is not a singular word. We should refer to them in the plural. It’s not the Taliban is or the Taliban has. It’s the plural of Talib. So, it’s the Taliban are. We don’t say the Americans is.

Erika Simpson  

Tariq, for me, I’ve written a lot of op eds on Afghanistan and have been against the involvement for the last 20 years. I think I was the only academic that was against it from the beginning. And I said foreign involvement in Afghanistan… foreigners will never know the Taliban. I’m not speaking in support of the Taliban at all. But I think intervention by America and the West was a mistake in the wake of 9/11. And on the topic of Taliban is … I believe my copy editors always write Taliban is. It’s not my fault.

Tariq Rauf  

The Taliban are the offshoot of the so-called Mujahideen. The religious fighters supported by the US and Pakistan to beat back the Soviets starting from 1980.  So, this element of a religious fight was brought in from the outsiders. And then the Mujahideen morphed into the Taliban and then an element of those morphed into Al Qaeda. And now another small element has morphed into ISIS, including the people who fled from Iraq and Syria as they were pursued. So this is a long tale and it’s not such a simple story. But I agree with you, Erika, it’s foreign intervention of people sitting in Washington and Brussels who have really very little understanding. They may have PhDs in whatever regional issues, but they have no understanding on the ground. And then I mean, look at the mess in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan – none of these interventions have succeeded anywhere. They’ve only made matters worse. And hundreds of thousands of innocent people have died. Nobody talks about them. We talk about the 2500 American casualties. I forget how many poor Canadians lost their lives and were injured. 

Erika Simpson  

Right.  158. 

Tariq Rauf  

Yeah, but what about the hundreds of thousands of Afghans who were killed in drone strikes? And of course, one shouldn’t forget that more Afghans were killed by the Taliban than the foreign forces. But it’s, you know, a huge mess in there.

Doug Saunders  

I’d like to hear from Erika about how you see how well this 20 years of foreign military operations has succeeded within the narrow area that it was legally and practically supposed to under the UN resolutions that authorized it and the NATO resolutions that authorized international support, which was not to get the Taliban out and it was not to democratize and stabilize Afghanistan. But it was to prevent a foreign militia and an Arab militia – at the time, Al Qaeda was the threat – from establishing itself there to the point that it was able to launch attacks on Western countries. And that was always the narrow definition of the International military operation in Afghanistan. It was the UN Security Council legal rationale for it. You mentioned that ISIS is established there. Has anything changed since the status quo pro ante in 2000?

Erika Simpson  

Well, Tariq’s point about Al Qaeda was kind of… I call it Frankenstein’s monster that came out of the Taliban. And so, you could argue that NATO is successful narrowly in defeating Al Qaeda, so that they weren’t able to establish an Islamic caliphate in the Middle East. So, we could say that NATO was successful narrowly and the US, but widely and Corey would agree with me… that in terms of peace building and building democratic institutions and bringing women in and education, the West was a resounding defeat. And keep in mind too, as Richard knows, all of Canada’s development money – instead of going to Africa and to development in Central America – went to Afghanistan. So, we’ve spent billions and billions of dollars of the world and what is the result? And so, it’s a failure, it’s a resounding failure.

Doug Saunders  

The one thing I kept hearing from military people in support of the results, even though measurably things had not worked out even a decade ago – and it was clear at the point when Canada withdrew – was that it had worked for women. That the rights of women had been secured. Participation of women in politics had improved. Forms of repression of civil life – mandatory purdah and head coverings and so on – at least in major urban areas had fallen apart. Corey, you’ve been watching that closer than anyone. Are things going to fall back to where they were in 1999 or 2000?

Corey Levine  

This is what Afghan women fear the most. But, to be clear, the media has done a good job in sort of highlighting: “Oh, women’s rights, women’s rights.” And the international community has said: “Oh, this is a red line. We’re not going to cross.” But their red lines have been very movable. They talk about it, but there’s no real commitment. But, you know, Afghanistan, despite being a very conservative, traditional, underdeveloped country, there has always been strong women advocates around. One of the women parliamentarians last night was pointing out that they had a female Minister of Health 40 years ago. The Taliban just imposed a very extreme theocratic version and interpretation of Islamic understanding of women’s rights. Needless to say, there were huge gains that were made in 20 years. Those gains haven’t, to a certain extent, really taken root in society. As Erika was pointing out, we have generally had a massive failure on the nation-state building project. And, yeah, I think we’re in very real fear of losing those particular gains. And as everybody else has acknowledged, the Taliban haven’t changed their stripes. I also think they have their frenemies. ISIS-K – the Islamic State in Khorasan – which is the Afghan version of ISIS. It’s hard to say [what is] the dynamic there and I’d be interested to hear what others think about it. On the one hand, I think there is some collaboration on the loose term. They’re engaging with each other. On the other hand, they’re fighting each other. But they are going to not outwardly have a say in what comes next if the Taliban get into government. The Taliban will be very conscious, though, of their interpretation. The Taliban call themselves an Islamic emirate, ISIS call themselves a caliphate. How those differences will play themselves out if/when Taliban get into government will have a huge impact on what happens with women. 

Metta Spencer  

As far as what is visible on the street, what is visible on the street? Do women wear burqas? Has there been a significant change in that kind of thing? If I walked down the street 25 years ago and today, would I see much difference?

Corey Levine  

If you walked down the street just shortly after the Taliban fell or in the intervening years: Yes. I mean, burqas were never compulsory until Taliban came into effect. It’s always been acceptable to wear a hijab. You know, there were the photos when the Soviets were in there of women in miniskirts and short sleeves. That was very sort of isolated in the in the urban centers. Even with my UN colleagues – Afghan UN colleagues – they don’t feel comfortable not wearing a headscarf in a UN compound at work, because it wouldn’t be acceptable amongst their male colleagues. Only a couple of them did not wear a headscarf at work. So, it just goes back to my point that the Taliban didn’t bring in anything in a way that wasn’t there. They just took an extreme version of that. But women will also tell you burqas are not our issue… I mean… 

Metta Spencer  

Really? It would be my issue. I wouldn’t want to wear those things.

Corey Levine  

Okay, having previously had to wear a burqa when I first went there when I traveled outside of Kabul. Yeah, it’s uncomfortable and not fun and hot and stifling. And you can’t see anything really. But they say: “Well, you know, covered up or not covered up, there’s endemic violence against women and girls.” Let’s talk about that. That doesn’t get addressed. There are so many other issues. Women only have – you know, it’s hard to know the real numbers – let’s say 20 to 25% literacy amongst women and girls.

Erika Simpson  

I thought it was higher, Corey, there’s a Canadian study – a government study – and they did a survey. It was something like 95% of Afghan women are illiterate. I was astounded. And then more than 50% have encountered sexual violence. More than 50%. And then child marriages are ubiquitous.

Corey Levine  

Yeah, absolutely. So well, you know, I’m being sort of generous in terms of the… but let’s say 75% illiteracy. 80% of women in girls have experienced some form of gender-based violence. Women have no access to economic resources. So, when you compare those issues to whether I have to wear a chador or not… in a way, it pales in comparison. And I don’t want to speak for Afghan women, but over the 20 years that I’ve been going there, this is pretty much the refrain that I hear.

Metta Spencer  

This is the saddest day. Everything I hear is extremely depressing. And I still have to say – and I know Tariq doesn’t want me to ask this question – but I want to know, what could have been done better? Was this inevitable? In a society like that do we just shrug our shoulders and say: There’s nothing we can do about it?” What should we have done, if anything?

Tariq Rauf  

Well, you know, with the Mujahideen, this was also funded by the Saudis. And with that came the Saudi version of Islam, which is a very restrictive and conservative version called Wahhabism. And the Saudis over the previous decades have funded madrasahs. [These are] religious schools all over the Muslim world, where they only teach children how to read the Quran and memorize it. They do not give them an education in science, social sciences, and so on. So you have many tens of thousands of young boys that have grown up in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Indonesia, Malaysia, through these madrasahs that are completely under the control of these extremist political religious parties in the name of Islam – wanting a caliphate or a global emirate, and so on. So, coming back to Afghanistan, as was mentioned, during the days of the Shah, I mean, when I was growing up, we used to go to Kabul as children for vacations. And women were part of society. Within the South Asian context, they were they were quite free. But with coming of the Soviets and with the foreign intervention of the Mujahideen, this crazy interpretation of Islam came in and it’s now also spread all over. I mean, for example, the hijab is portrayed to be an Islamic requirement. In fact, it is not. The hijab was actually originally worn by Jewish people in the Middle East region, then a version of it was picked up by Christianity when it came along, and then by Muslims when Muslims came around. But again, it’s been interpreted by these people, mainly men; and now it’s sort of interesting that in Canada and elsewhere young women are wearing it. I personally have no objection. A woman can wear whatever she wants, whenever she wants in whatever way she wants. My objection is to say that hijab is a requirement under Islam. It is not. So, there are sort of broader implications of this phenomenon beyond Afghanistan as well. But I think there is one positive sign in so many of the documentaries that I’ve seen. Even though the Taliban unfortunately may be closing schools and intimidating women, in many families now the men have begun to recognize the importance of educating the girls and women in their family. And they’ve set up informal sort of schools to operate under the radar of the Taliban where they can be given at least some basic education and the girls are very eager to get that education and even take the risk of walking through fields to get to such education. But all of this, likely we don’t know how this will survive if there’s a full Taliban takeover.

Metta Spencer  

Erika, you don’t have to put your hand up. Just butt in. 

Erika Simpson  

Oh, thank you. On Tariq’s very valuable point about what I call the ideology of global Salafism, there is a concept in international relations in the theory – the meta theory of social constructivism – which is called “three generations.” That thinking and ideology like that changes over three generations. So, we can be hopeful that 50 years from now, with the onset of the internet, with secret… with cell phones, which are being banned, and so on. That perhaps the fathers and the patriarchy that we’re seeing and I think it’s – when we’re getting at the roots of it – I think Tariq, it’s male patriarchy not so much global Salafism that’s at its root here. That the fundamental problem is of male tribal warfare thinking. And we need to have what some people call the culture of peace, to combat that, to fight that. And see the words I’m using: combat and fight. But it’s male patriarchy, that is embodied in global Salafism. Those tenets that are starting to appear around the world. So, we need to fight that. And you can only do that with people like Doug, the media, computers, the internet, and cell phones – and then we’ll win in three generations.

Doug Saunders  

I wonder given that as Tariq points out and as Erika notes, there’s a disjunction between the authoritarian politics of theocracy – which I think Erika is quite right – which tend to be a much more of a misogynist politics rather than a specifically religious politics and the lived experiences of women in those states. Tariq points out that regardless of what’s happening with the Taliban, the education rate of women has increased quite a bit, and maybe ratcheted back somewhat, but it is hard to reverse. And, of course, the outstanding example there is Iran, which has always, or at least since the 1980s, had the very highest rate of university education of women in the Middle East and one of the highest rates in the world. It’s far higher than the rate of women. And of course, if you’ve spent any time in Iran, you know it’s an almost matriarchal society on the streets. The intelligentsia and the creative class are women. People driving cars or women in Iran. But, there’s this disjunction between that and the theocratic government and their official controls. It always feels in Iran, like it’s a tension that can never hold for much longer, because society is so out of step with what the government claims society is. I think Erika is right that that’s because it’s a defensive gender-based posture rather than a strictly religious posture. Will that change? Would a higher rate of education of women cause change sooner in Iran and eventually in Afghanistan?

Corey Levine  

Your example, Doug, of Iran is really interesting. I spent a year working in Iraq several years ago and since the fall of Saddam… You know, under Saddam, Iraqi woman had the highest rates of education and university education and were amongst the most educated women in the Arab and Muslim world. And since the fall of the former regime that has been dialed back incredibly. Women are no longer as you know, getting the kinds of education and have access to the [various] kinds of education. They’re getting married much earlier. So, I guess I’m using Iraq as an example. You can have those rights for decades and decades, but obviously they are very easily eroded. So, I guess I tend to be a bit more pessimistic about how many of these kinds of gains that have been made will really remain.

Tariq Rauf  

A short comment about Iran: The last time I was there in Tehran, in the area where I was, roughly 50% of the people driving cars were women and a number of those cars just had women in them or a man was sitting next to the woman but the woman was driving.

Metta Spencer  

Okay, you know, I’m impressed by the fact that we have so many Afghan experts here. But I am also mindful that we have some people who are also quite knowledgeable about non-proliferation and the upcoming conference. So, I would be loathed to have us end this conversation without turning, at least briefly, to anticipating what’s going to happen. And Tariq, would you give us – if you don’t mind – your guess as to where we’re going with the NPT Review?

Tariq Rauf  

Okay, so NPT Review Conferences are held every 5 years. And the last one was supposed to be held in April-May of 2020 and it got postponed repeatedly because of the COVID pandemic. It was first proposed to be held in January of this year [2021]. But then conditions were not right in New York and then it got postponed to be held in August of this year [2021], that date too has fallen by the wayside. Then there were proposals to hold it in the beginning of January [2022], from the 4th of January; but that overlaps with the first meeting of State Parties of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which will be held in Vienna from the 12th to the 14th. So, the alternate dates that were proposed were from the 17th of January, but the Chinese have objected because it overlaps with their presidency of the Conference on Disarmament and also with the Chinese New Year. And also, it was pointed out that in order to not hold the session of the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, it requires a decision and that’s not likely to come. So, we are sort of stuck. A compromise proposal is to hold a shorter review conference in December this year (2021), starting from December 6th. But then a lot of the countries where people celebrate Christmas, they’re not too happy about it, because they don’t want to give up that Christmas, because in many Western countries have for the first time in two years the ability to spend Christmas with their families. My personal view is that we should postpone it to 2022. We have really no reason to hold an NPT Conference. I mean, it would have been good to have held it, but we don’t need to. Nothing needs to be decided. The Non-Proliferation Treaty will not fall away. We don’t have a Review Conference. Given the state of relations between the US and Russia and the US and China and the complete lack of progress on nuclear disarmament and nuclear modernization projects underway, a Review Conference now is not likely to yield any agreement on what’s to happen on nuclear disarmament. A lot of talk now is on bridge building between the weapon states and the non-weapon states and also on the relationship between the Ban Treaty supporters and its opponents. And so, everyone is now talking about nuclear risk reduction. So, the best measure of nuclear risk reduction is to have eventually no nuclear weapons. But who increased all the risks? It’s the nuclear weapon states. Through their modernization programs. Through their changes in doctrine of early use of nuclear weapons. The US now is thinking of using nuclear weapons to deter cyber-attacks under certain cases. Russians want to resort to nuclear weapons early if they feel they are losing a conventional war. We also have this issue of no first use. And here I think I’m going to antagonize many people on this panel. I personally don’t think no first use gets us anything. It just is another way of losing our efforts on promoting disarmament. And there are many agreements between Russia and the US from the height of the Cold War: Prevention of Dangerous Military Activities; the Incidents at Sea [Agreement]; nuclear risk reduction centers; and this current discussion and nuclear risk reduction has complete amnesia about this. So, if we were implementing those, we wouldn’t be having these incidents like in the Black Sea, where this British ship apparently challenged the waters that the Russians were defending. You have Russian bombers flying around the coast of North America. NATO bombers on the borders of Russia and basically raising the tensions. I also wanted to use this opportunity to show this book. This is by Ambassador Alexander Kmentt. It is called the “Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.” It’s a very detailed book, which provides the negotiating history of how the Nuclear Ban Treaty came about, through its various sort of episodes, like the nuclear ban treaty meetings in Mexico. 

Metta Spencer  

Who is the author? Please tell me. I’ve never heard of him. 

Tariq Rauf  

This is Ambassador Alexander Kmentt. He is one of the people responsible for the treaty. He’s part of the core group and part of the Austrian foreign ministry group that held the Vienna Conference with the Austrian pledge on Disarmament that got the support of 159 states. So, this is the inside story of the core group of states: Mexico, Brazil, Austria, New Zealand, and Ireland – whose diplomatic efforts led to the Ban Treaty. ICAN was very useful in promoting international support. But the work inside the UN system, on getting the resolutions to negotiate the treaty and then [actually] negotiating the treaty, etc. was done by states. So, this complements the excellent book by Ray Acheson, which describes the role of civil society. This describes the role of states and the so-called non-nuclear weapons states. 

Metta Spencer  

You said you don’t have much hope that the “no first use” or what may also be called “sole purpose” would do much of anything. Then what would you consider the next promising forward step? 

Tariq Rauf  

Well, I understand where no first use is coming from. But it’s basically saying: “My house is full of guns” and I’m telling my neighbor that I’m not going to shoot him or her. But, if I change my mind, I have all the resources to use them [nuclear weapons]. Sole purpose is more. It’s a little bit more useful because one can say nuclear weapons should only be used to respond to or deter a nuclear attack. But again, that’s a verbal promise. It is not subject to verification. So, the best way is to have a follow-on treaty to New Start, which fortunately the Russians and Americans extended. It’s valid until 2026 and gives us 5 years. And so now, the new talk is – and I hosted a webinar with Rose Gottemoeller, the US negotiator of New Start; and Alexey Arbatov – a senior Russian parliamentary delegate; and so on – the 2 sides are actually thinking about all nuclear weapons, regardless of range – medium range, short range, and weapons that can threaten national existence and so on. The stumbling block still is the Russians also want to talk about the anti-ballistic missile systems and the Americans don’t. But there might be a way of finessing that. There’s also this issue where the Americans want to bring in China and then the Russian say: “Well, in that case, we also want France and the UK at the table.” As you know, the UK said that it will not go down to below 200 warheads. They have established a ceiling of 250. This does not mean that they will build up to 250. But that leaves the possibility there. And they are building new ballistic missile submarines. The US also wants to build them. People don’t realize that all British submarine launched ballistic missiles are actually American ballistic missiles leased from the US. And the US cooperates with the British in designing the warhead for it because the warhead has to fit on the missiles. And the missiles have to fit in the British submarine. So here you have very close nuclear weapons cooperation between the UK and the United States. Canada, unfortunately, is still part of those countries that’s resisting the nuclear weapons ban treaty. NATO just reaffirmed it has a new concept where they repeated this whole thing as long as nuclear weapons exist; the NATO countries will have an appropriate mix and so on. The current Secretary General wanted to extend NATO’s remit all the way to China. President Macron sort of reined them in and said: “North Atlantic means North Atlantic.” I’d be happy to hear Erika’s views on some of these issues.

Metta Spencer  

Richard, you haven’t spoken yet. I wonder, does IPPNW have a position? Or is it more like a networking for people with very different positions? What would you say is the prevailing opinion within IPPNW about the next most promising advance toward disarmament? I know that IPPNW was very much a sponsor of the ICAN project.

 

Richard Denton  

Correct. Certainly, IPPNW strongly supports ICAN and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons and feels that is the way to go. I think I’m fairly simplistic. When at the NPT, it works by consensus, which means that someone has the veto and as a result nothing happens. The TPNW came about using the UN General Assembly voting system, which was sort of a two thirds majority. And but you had 122 countries out of 124 that agreed to it. So, to me that pretty much was consensus in terms of mutual understanding. What I also wonder though, is that do we need a third party or third forum? Because the nine nuclear countries said that they’re not attending the TPNW. We’ve got a few NATO countries and that they will attend as observers. You’ve got the Swedish proposals of 17 countries and they are proposing 22 or something different resolutions to move forward. But I’m just wondering – either Erika or Tariq – your thoughts on yet a third party? We in Rotary are trying to bring and get Rotary as another middle power to bring various groups together. With IPPNW, it’s all the health and World Health Organizations that are supporting ICAN and the TPNW. But I’m just wondering if we should have again another disarmament conference that would be on neutral ground to bring in the 9 nuclear countries. Now, I know Tariq has suggested that it begin with 5 or 7 and exclude Israel and North Korea. I’d appreciate your thoughts on that. 

Erika Simpson  

Tariq, I want to congratulate you on your survey there of all the issues that are reigning right now. I thought that was fantastic. I want to listen to that again. And so, Richard, your concept of a neutral disarmament conference somewhere, I want to connect to Afghanistan, because that was what we talked about a lot. And if you looked at how the decision was made to withdraw from Afghanistan, Donald Trump said he was going to withdraw and was opposed within by the Pentagon and so on. But the final decision that Trump made was criticized by the Germans and the Italians and they said fervently: “We can’t leave Afghanistan.” Then Joe Biden came in power. And on April the 10th, he said: “We’re withdrawing.” And right away the same day, NATO said they were pulling out. So, this, to me is a lesson of American hegemony that the United States dominates NATO. So long as NATO is dominated by the United States, we’re not going to get any changes. We’re not going to get any changes to NATO Strategic Concept, we’re not going to get any changes at the NPT. So, if I’m in civil society, and I want something effective, then I’m going to run for no first use because it’s understandable to Americans. No first use as opposed to sole use. And so, I can understand why PNND, civil society, and ICAN are all going for no first use. It’s something. It’s a low-lying fruit. We can grab it and maybe we can run with it. But until the United States decides that it wants to move toward disarmament, we’re not going to get anywhere. I’ve been to every NPT review Conference and seen how effective Tariq is there since 2000. And I think that until the United States decides that it’s going to take action, then Canada is going to be hypocritical on deterrence Canada’s can continue to vacillate and say we support NATO, the Strategic Concept, and deterrence. We’re not going to move anywhere until the United States changes. That’s why I want to move – if I could – to Washington, but I’m here in London, Ontario. Well right now, I’m in British Columbia, where my brother is running for the Green Party, so I’m helping him for a week in a good winnable riding. 

Metta Spencer  

I’d like to hear Tariq’s response to Richard’s question. Is it a good idea to have a new conference on neutral territory? 

Tariq Rauf  

Yeah, I think it’s a good idea, but the nuclear weapon states are not going to come. We already have the forum in Geneva – the Conference on Disarmament – where if they wanted to have discussions, they could have discussions. All of them are there, including North Korea. But they don’t want to discuss it there. The NPT, fortunately, is the only forum where five [of the] nuclear weapon states respond and explain their strategies. They do not do it in the General Assembly or in Geneva. It’s only in the NPT where they feel constrained. They are feeling threatened by the ban treaty, which is why their response is so strong. Because these days, you cannot stand up on TV or tweet that nuclear weapons are good and bring peace and security. The new generation that is coming up is watching British Columbia, California, and Australia burn. They see where the world is heading. And they see that billions of dollars or trillions are being spent on nuclear weapons. And here are these young people struggling with student debt, they don’t know what jobs they will be able to get. They can’t afford to buy their own houses and so on. So, their priorities are very different. And I think physicians and others, we need to target the younger people, because they are the ones who will affect change. They now have the numbers; they have the communications tools that are way smarter than at least I am with all kinds of things. WhatsApp has been superseded by other tools that I hear about. So, no first use was considered by Obama, but then he ran out of time and then Biden had made supporting statements when he was Vice President. But as President, I doubt very much he will have the space to agree to no first use. And this is one of the reasons why for the past two years, I’ve been pushing to move the NPT review conference out of New York to Vienna, because Washington is two hours away from New York. And in every review conference, when the going gets tough, we get a phalanx of American officials and they come and beat down progressive elements in the non-nuclear weapon states, including us in Canada when I used to be part of the Canadian delegation. And then we would get intimidated for a whole variety of reasons because we are very much vulnerable given our trade and so on. The pushback doesn’t come on the issue for issue. It comes in other areas.

Metta Spencer  

Okay, well, that’s a long discussion of all kinds of other possible actions. It didn’t really respond to Richard’s proposal, but maybe we should have a youth get together or something. I’m in favor of anything anybody proposes here. But time’s up. So, it’s been fun and interesting and important. And I’m very grateful to all of you for it. Say Goodbye. Thank you. 

[All panelists say Good Bye and Thank You.]

T248. Werbos, Computers, and God

T154. Ethnic Conflicts

T154. Ethnic Conflicts

 

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number: 154
Panelists: Paul Copeland, Martin Klein, Louis Kriesberg, and Doug Saunders
Host: Metta Spencer

Date Aired:  29 December 2020
Date Transcribed and Verified:  10 March 2021 (DM) / 28 May 2021 (AW)
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits: David Millar and Adam Wynne 

Martin Klein  

Well, what are you thinking about Canada?

Doug Saunders  

It’s a question that’s been on my mind. The sense I get from Canadian foreign policy,  from the foreign minister, and a lot of other places, is that they’re basically biding their time until the next US president comes into office, particularly around issues surrounding China, although, of course, also climate and things like that, which also involves China. And there’s a sense that Biden’s approach to China will be less unilateral and more of a mixture of engagement and confrontation than the purely confrontational approach of the Trump administration. But I think that the question in the air is: how do you do that? And I think Metta asked that earlier. How does a US president interact with China in a way that brings a consensus of democratic countries together around the question, avoids a second Cold War, but also wields some sticks along with the carrots to deal with the ethnic prosecutions and human rights abuses and crushing of democracy in Hong Kong?

Metta Spencer  

If, there were no human rights issues, either in Russia or China, I wouldn’t have any problem. I mean, the economic competition shouldn’t be problematic, and let them do what they please, in terms of, you know, building roads in Africa, or whatever they want to do, or, you know, a silk road across Asia. It’s the human rights thing. And I don’t have an answer to how you try to impose any kind of pressure on any country to really effectively change the human rights policy. The question of what to do about defending the Rohingya is exactly the same question is how you would take care of the Uighurs, you know, if China were not being so hard on the Uighurs and on Hong Kong,

Doug Saunders  

Are there approaches that countries like Canada and the United States should be taking, that they aren’t?

Louis Kriesberg  

I wonder if a strategy of more positive benefits from not imposing nasty human rights violation, if you’re just exhorting people to be nice and decent and we will hit you if you don’t be nice — may be counterproductive rather than winning over some idea that if you want to be progressive and have wellbeing for your people, you’re better off, allowing them to become cooperative helpmates in production. And it’s hard to coerce people to be nice. And there are mutual gains to be had. You waste energy. The Soviet Union by being so harsh on its own people, obviously was self-destructive. But I think partly, in some cases, maybe in China, they’re afraid that one thing can lead to another and they don’t want to go the way the Soviet Union went, which they, I think, think of as a bad example.

Paul Copeland  

The Canadian Friends of Burma started falling apart in 2013, when the first attacks on the Rohingya occurred in western Burma. And what I found was that most of the Burmese in the group had no sympathy whatsoever for the Rohingya. And it just blew the organization apart. So, I’ve been following the Rohingya stuff a lot. And I don’t see any movement at all from Aung San Suu Kyi or people in Burma towards any relaxation of anything. You know, they talk occasionally about repatriation, but I think it’s all a myth as far as the Burmese Government is concerned. 

Metta Spencer  

Paul, I mean, I am always I’m looking for, you know, prescriptions. And I don’t know. I mean, it seems to me it’s a good thing the Gambia took this thing to the World Court. But that’s gonna take several years. What good is that going to do? Even Lou might say, that’s not a good idea, because that’s of coercive, I don’t know. What more can one do? Tell them that they would benefit more if they’d be nice? I mean, I’m sorry, I’m really looking for answers. 

Doug Saunders  

If I understand what I’ve heard Paul, saying right before and others on this topic. The problem with what Lou’s suggesting is that the regime in Burma vis-a-vis the Rohingya and I think equally as much, the regime in China vis-a-vis the Uighurs, they think they are being nice. They think within their own internal logic, that they are providing security for maybe somebody who’s not that particular ethnic group. They think they are keeping back something that’s a threat to their country. And, I think, within the perspective of the elites and leadership in Burma, what they hear from their internal circles is constant affirmation of this. And there’s this problem that if you’re a foreign government, trying to put them on the right path, and so on, it’s very easy to “code” those foreign governments as being part of this invasion or part of this threat from outside. It’s not just Aung San Suu Kyi who has decided to launch a violent campaign of expulsion against the against the Rohingya… it’s a consensus within the ruling class and ethnic groups in Burma, if I understand correctly, Paul. How do you break through that?

Paul Copeland  

I don’t know. I mean, that’s my impression is that the Burmese, the Burmans, are supportive of the harsh dealing with the Rohingya,

Louis Kriesberg  

Ethnic conflicts are serious and they just seem to be persistent, without resolution — and the Rohingya is, in my little knowledge, I kind of put that in the same order. There’s a dominant ethnic group which wants to be in charge of everything. And then there’s ideologies that support the dreadful stuff that happens. 

Metta Spencer  

They’re all united about hating the Rohingya. That’s maybe the main thing they all agree on. And I don’t know to what extent these ethnic conflicts have been overcome. And the current government is —

Martin Klein  

Is anybody within Burma sympathetic to the Rohingya? I mean, clearly Aung San Suu Kyi has been forced [and is] involved in an uneasy alliance with the military. And she doesn’t, whatever she would do, it’s politic for her not to support the Rohingya. But how about these other ethnic minorities? Do they support each other? Do they, I assume they want a federal state? 

Doug Saunders  

We’ve seen a resurgence of sort of Buddhist chauvinist politics that some people would say is sort of a set of ideas that have spread all around the Buddhist-triangle countries of Burma, Sri Lanka, Thailand. And it does tend to view those ethnic minorities in those countries who are Muslim as being invaders, which is something you also see in China. The notion that the Uighurs are not just one of China’s many ethnic groups, but are somehow invaders who’ve arrived late on the scene. And you see that in India too, frankly, right? A lot of the Hindu politics is based on the idea that Urdu-speakers are invaders who came late to the game. And I think it’s a little bit like how Jews were viewed in early 20th century Europe as invaders, partly because people had witnessed a lot of refugees coming in from Ashkenazi populations driven out by pogroms, but mainly because it was an idea that once it caught hold, it was easy to say, even if it’s an ethnic or religious group that’s been there as long as anyone else. So I do wonder if this is a wider problem across countries that have Buddhist nationalist leadership.

Paul Copeland  

When I’ve been in Burma and also when I’ve been in Canada, I’ve been in contact and met with leaders of the Karen community, and leaders of the Kachin community. The Karin are on the Thai-Burma border and the Kachin are up on the northern border with China. And both of those groups are mainly Christian.

Martin Klein  

Does that mean they’re hostile to Islam?

Paul Copeland  

I don’t really know. It wasn’t an issue when I was meeting with them.

Doug Saunders  

And, Paul, do you feel that groups like the Karen get a more sympathetic treatment from the Burmese regime than the Rohingya do? Perhaps for religious reasons?

Paul Copeland  

I don’t know about religious reasons. There’s certainly been fighting with the Karen and the Burmese Government. It’s fairly mild right now. But I was in Manerplaw, which was the headquarters and met again with some of the leaders.

Metta Spencer  

Well, you know, they’ve got all these ceasefires, but what does that really amount to? Are these conflicts really over? And I don’t know whether all of them have even signed or reached a ceasefire agreement. But my impression is that most of the tribal or I don’t know what language I want to use for this, but ethnic conflicts other than the Rohingya have been sort of resolved, and the government would be functioning if it weren’t so screwed up about the Rohingya. Is that a fair way of looking at it?

Paul Copeland  

 No.

Metta Spencer  

No? Okay.

Paul Copeland  

Well, what they’ve been trying to negotiate in Burma is something called Panglong 2. Aung San when he first was in power negotiated Panglong 1, which contemplated the ethnic minorities staying in Burma for 10 years and then they could decide whether to get out. And they’ve been trying to negotiate Panglong 2, and I’ve been on — up until this month, actually, I was on the Board of the Associates to Develop Democratic Burma, led by a guy named Harn Yawngwhe. Aung San Suu Kyi has basically eliminated Harn Yawngwhe from participating and getting into Burma, although the organization is still working there. But it doesn’t seem to be getting very far on a Panglong 2 agreement. 

Metta Spencer  

And she’s excluding him because he’s basically a good guy?

Paul Copeland  

That would be my impression.

Louis Kriesberg  

After the horrors of World War Two, a lot of countries learned a lesson the hard way that such madness is self-destructive. And, I wonder if the vision of Europe, of an economic community really helped mitigate some of that for a while and in the longtime even. The immediate response in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania was the Russians who would become settled there couldn’t really be citizens, because they weren’t ethically Estonian, Latvian, [ and Lithuanian] — and the European Economic Community said; “No, no, no, you can’t do that. You shouldn’t do that. And you can’t do that.” And they did make sure that it was possible that, yeah, those Russians could be Lithuanian and citizenship could not be denied because they didn’t speak that language at home. But there have been that kind of attempts in larger settled areas. In a way, for example: for Spain, dealing with minorities was eased by being part of Europe, the whole idea of what your identity was got layered in European. It doesn’t end all troubles, but it is perhaps one path.

Martin Klein  

You know, in Eastern Europe, the issue goes back to the breakup of the Great Empires, both the Russian and Hapsburg Empires. In the 1920s, the question came up with both Jews and Gypsies. And I don’t know the detail. Some of you may know better than I, the the Hungarian/Romanian issue in Transylvania. But the question came up of nationality. In Africa, there have been lots of wars. In most countries, the fact is that you can’t open the Pandora’s box. You commit suicide. In fact, wars have been disastrous, no matter — except the Wars of Liberation and even those have had problems – but where you have a multi-ethnic community… I mean, I tend to feel that people are better off in a multi-ethnic community, but only if there are rules of the game where you accept other people’s religions; and the tragedy of Yugoslavia is that it was working well, and that most people, most Yugoslavs, supported it. And when it broke down, the appeals to ethnic nationalism produce horrible, horrible results that came out of nowhere.

Metta Spencer  

The current equivalent to the Yugoslavia situation — except it’s not a matter of breaking up a country but reviving conflicts between countries —is the thing that started with the Nagorno-Karabakh situation. I did an interview last week with Irakli Kakabadze in Georgia, who runs now a Gandhian kind of foundation. And I’ll be doing something with him tomorrow, that’ll be relevant to that too. But he scared the daylights out of me. He said that, as you know, the Russians are now back in control of Nagorno-Karabakh, or rather the territories around it, this sort of buffer zone. And they’ve got the deal with Turkey and Azerbaijan, and they’re trying to make a relationship with about four or five other countries in the region. And he says the Armenians are convinced that there’s going to be a renewal of genocide, that the Armenians are going to be killed and are being right now. There are human rights violations and atrocities going on. So, I’ve got to try to figure out who in Canada knows a darn thing about what’s going on in that region. I don’t know of any organizations or groups of expatriates, you know, ethnic groups working on it, but clearly the Armenian situation doesn’t look very bright now and we’re not hearing about it.

Martin Klein  

But the problem in the in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is really the great flaw of nationalism. That it is almost impossible to create national borders. And it’s almost impossible because people move across borders. People move in ethnic niches, people move. The Israelis are committed to it being a Jewish state. And the Estonians want Estonia to be an Estonian state. And that’s impossible because there are always minorities. 

Metta Spencer  

There are murders going on even now. Then, what you do, you know, you can’t just, you know, get in a pulpit and start inveighing against nationalism, you got to do something much more, you know, muscular.

Doug Saunders  

I think Russia’s role… I mean, Turkey’s being unambiguous — in backing these areas, which it doesn’t really need to do. There’s no economic interest in this. And the geostrategic interest is, is a little hard to sort out because you’re in danger of pissing off Iran and getting them into the game too, just to make a further mess of things. While the Russians have nominally supported the Armenians in this, because Russia has a big military base in Armenia, it’s traditionally sided with Armenia in these things. And it’s, until recently it kind of stayed out of this one. What you’re hearing, Metta, and what I’m hearing is that Russia is now doing things — but it’s a little unclear what it is doing. And yes, there have been atrocities in Nagorno-Karabakh and the impartial people have documented them. I don’t think it quite amounts to a second Armenian Genocide or something like that, but it’s enough to be very disturbing. It’s the sort of it’s the sort of targeting of civilians that, as you said, resembles the Yugoslav wars a bit. And it certainly sounds like the ceasefire isn’t much of a ceasefire,

Louis Kriesberg  

Is there any chance of recovery of Canadian leadership that it really had for a while? I know it does do work in international development and it has some good reputation for that.

Metta Spencer  

Lou, I think that Canadians, and I say this as an American who has spent more of my life now in Canada than I did in the US. So, I’m a Canadian and American, but more Canadian now. And I would say Canadians are among the most parochial people in the world. There is no sense of wanting to be to be the Empire in charge of things. There’s something like, we go as far as our borders and we don’t aspire to leadership in the world, even though we aspire to be “good citizens” in the world. You know, I’m trying to be provocative and I’m sure Doug is gonna swat me down.

Doug Saunders  

No, I’m actually going to agree with you to an extent. I think, when you listen to what other countries with conflict want to learn from Canada, it’s not so much the multiculturalism thing, it should be probably and successfully being a polyglot, pluralist country and all that stuff. But it’s how we manage Quebec nationalism. And the funniest example of that was a maybe a dozen years ago, maybe a little longer, I was in northern Sri Lanka, in the area controlled by the LTTE, by the Tamil Tigers, which they sort of turned into a pseudo-state a little like North Korea or something. And there were hardly any signs or anything. There were no businesses or anything. It was just a militarized area. We drove past a giant billboard with faces of various leaders on it and a whole lot of writing in Tamil that I didn’t understand, but one English phrase written in boldface, which was “asymmetrical federalism”, which is a phrase I had not thought anyone outside of Canada used. And I asked one of our translators, I said: “What’s that billboard about?” And he said: “Oh, it’s to celebrate, there was a peace mission that came in and was led by some guy named Bob Rae.” 

[all chuckling] 

Metta Spencer  

I love that. 

Martin Klein  

Canada does play a role, largely in part because we never had colonies, except internal colonies. And my wife attended one of the ILO’s annual sessions. She was part of the Canadian delegation and Canada played a role in negotiating an agreement which Canada was not likely to support. Because they negotiate these agreements. And if they bind the government in ways the government doesn’t like, the government may play a role in negotiating them, but then they’re dead letter. We’re one of those countries that that plays a role because we can talk to everybody.

Doug Saunders  

The role of Canada as a neutral arbiter has been historically useful. There are a number of people now who say that just doesn’t work anymore, that there’s no place for a neutral arbiter

Metta Spencer  

The whole issue of indigenous rights and, and the need to honour their heritage and so on. I don’t really want to use this word, but I… ssh… don’t tell anybody I said this, I think it’s a fad. I mean, it’s the kind of thing that suddenly became – over the last couple… two or three years – an very important element of Canadian discourse. It’s not that I’m opposed to it as an issue. I think it’s great that we think about it, but I can’t, I don’t really understand why it’s happening now, in particular. Now, rather than 10 years ago, or, you know, 50 years ago.

Martin Klein  

I think Trudeau opened Pandora’s box and it’s hard to retreat. He awakened desires in the Aboriginal community that he wasn’t ready to fulfill. And, so he’s ended up getting his fingers burned. But I think he’s pushed the issue in the center stage. And I think there’s an articulate native leadership, that’s not going to let him back down. The aborigines don’t have votes in Parliament, they’re only about 3% of the population. But they have issues on which they can mobilize sympathy.

Doug Saunders  

First Nations and Inuit populations are the fastest growing populations in Canada by quite a wide margin. And it’s being experienced. And they’re largely an urban population. And it’s being experienced, I think, by them as a return from the decimation. Decimation is the wrong word. What do you call when something’s cut to 1/10th its former size? That having happened to its population in Canada’s first century and a half, is now recovering. And so, I think you do have a new generation and sort of political awakening, that, I think some of the seeds were planted in the 1970s, when you had a first political awakening. And you also had the Canadian Supreme Court’s recognition that the treaties reached between Britain especially and also France and the tribes of Canada are part of the constitution. That they are constitutional documents of Canada and therefore implicitly there’s a shared sovereignty between the First Peoples of Canada and the descendants of the settlers. And I think that the constitutional implications of those decisions have yet to fully play out, and they’re combining with that demographic surge in an interesting way.

Metta Spencer  

Is there anything equivalent in other countries? I mean, I don’t see it in the US on the same scale. 

Doug Saunders  

New Zealand’s gone much further in incorporating the politics and culture and language of its Indigenous peoples into the very fabric of the country itself, including it’s flag. 

Louis Kriesberg  

At Syracuse University, every meeting is introduced by reminding people that we are on Haudenosaunee land.

Doug Saunders  

Even in the States, I didn’t know title acknowledgements had — 

Metta Spencer  

I did not know either.

Louis Kriesberg  

— and Biden has appointed as the Secretary of the Interior, for the first time, a Native Indigenous person.

Martin Klein  

I’m amazed that in the long period of American history, she’s the first Native person appointed to a federal Cabinet Office. 

Louis Kriesberg  

Yes.

Doug Saunders  

You know, I should say Canada’s hardly virtuous in this area, too. I think our first Indigenous cabinet ministers are pretty recent and of course native Canadians [First Nations people] didn’t even have the vote until, I think, 1960 or 1961.

T248. Werbos, Computers, and God

T171. Electric Grids

T171. Electric Grids

 

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number: 171
Panelists:  Craig Smith
Host: Metta Spencer

Date Aired:  26 January 2021
Date Transcribed and Verified:  14 May 2021
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits:  David Millar 

Metta Spencer  

Yeah, hi, I’m Metta Spencer. And today I’m going to learn a few things because I almost failed physics. Maybe I did fail physics in high school. And I really never got it. And I, I’m very sorry, that poor teacher tried his best, but he just didn’t make it with me. But it’s, you know, all this time, I’ve been thinking now I just need to learn about electricity and things like that. And today, I’ve got an engineer who’s going to explain things to me, he’s going to tell me all about electric grids. Now, I’ll tell you why I particularly need to know, that is I’m running this thing called Project Save The World, which is why you’re listening to me because you want to save the world too, right?  And we have this thing called the Platform for Survival, which is 25 planks… if we managed to accomplish all of them, we would very much reduce the risk of six of the world’s worst global threats to human survival. And one of the planks… was written by somebody else… because I couldn’t have written it. And here’s what it says: … to reduce global warming… all states shall… accelerate research and development of high voltage, direct current electric grids, energy storage, and demand-system management. Well, I’ve been trying for years now to get somebody to explain that to me. And Craig Smith is here to do the job. Craig is not here. He’s actually in California, where it’s warmer than here. I’m getting a lot of snow today. So, Craig, hi, how are you today?

Craig Smith  

Well, fine. Good morning. And thank you for having me on your show. As always a pleasure. And,

Metta Spencer  

And we’re, I see in the background, the name of your book “Reaching Net Zero”. Let’s give it a plug before we get into other business. Okay. So, Craig is an engineer by training, but he became the CEO of some sort of big conglomerate or

Craig Smith  

[Craig Smith Consulting Engineers.] an architecture and engineering company. My original background actually was electrical engineering. So —

Metta Spencer  

okay, so you knew a thing, you couldn’t even explain to me what voltage is or something like that, right?

Craig Smith  

Yeah, I’ll be happy to talk about —

Metta Spencer  

Okay. In the upshot of this, of this plank, which I am committed to, because it’s, you know, the thing I work for, I’m committed to this, but I don’t know what it means that we are supposed to develop research, research and development for the research and development of… high voltage direct-current grids. And we’re supposed to develop in better energy storage, and something called demand-system management. Right. Okay, go for it. Tell me what I didn’t understand all these years.

Craig Smith  

All right, well, first of all, if we’re, if we’re going to solve the global climate crisis, there are a number of things that we have to do. And, you know, besides reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and generating electricity from renewable sources, like wind and power, getting more electric vehicles, so on, there’s some very important things that have to be done that one might say are less, less sexy. And I think the electrical grid probably falls in that category, because you don’t hear people talking about it. But that’s a good example. It’s a critical thing that has to has to happen in the future. I’ll tell you why in —

Metta Spencer  

Just a second, because before we plunge into this sexy part, the part that really grabs people’s attention, is when you talk about the possibility that some cyber-attack might knock out our electric grid and leave us in the dark for a year or two. I mean, address that before we go on to more spiritual matters.

Craig Smith  

Well, I don’t know about a cyber-attack leaving all of us in the dark. Certainly, cyber-attacks have shown themselves to be a new threat and a new problem. However, the utilities and transmission… companies, people that deal with transmission of electricity, the interconnection of different utilities, have dealt with a similar problem for many years. And that is weather outages. So, they have the ability to switch things around quickly in response to something that interrupts the system most of the time 99.99% of the time, with great success, there have been some admirable failures that were caused by weather, which led to one system, having too big a demand for power, trying to meet it, drawing power from somebody else, causing it to go down, and causing a giant blackout in the northeast United States a few decades ago, as a result of that,

Metta Spencer  

And here too.  

Craig Smith  

It is a concern, but I don’t think that’s the it’s such a heightened area of concern that I think the… utilities and the managers that handle the interconnection between states and regions are worried about it and will be taking steps.

Metta Spencer  

Okay, so I really have to focus on the development of a better system.

Craig Smith  

Yes, where do we go from here and of course, dealing with that is one of the one of the steps. But first, let’s talk about what’s there today… most of the countries, the developed countries that have had electricity for a long period of time, their systems were originally designed and been not really changed very much in the last, say 100 years, they were developed basically to take a big generator, like a big nuclear power plant or a big coal fired power plant. Take that electricity through a transformer, increase the voltage, ship it over transmission lines and distribution systems, to customers… then the voltage was lowered by a different set of Transformers to the area or the voltage where people used it in businesses, appliances.

Metta Spencer  

Now, that’s what you said something about direct current and alternating current. And that’s what you’re talking about here. Now, that yes,

Craig Smith  

this is all alternating current… I’m referring to now. And in the basic historic system, the alternating-current / direct-current argument goes back to George Westinghouse and Edison, Edison promoted the use of DC, Westinghouse promoted the use of alternating current… alternating current won out because it was so convenient to distribute and increase the voltage, lower the voltage for different uses, and you couldn’t do that with DC. So… but now, we have new demands on the electrical distribution system. Also, I don’t want to make this too complicated, but to clarify, we talk about two things –transmission and distribution: transmission is getting power from point A to point B from Canada to New York for example; distribution is taking power that’s been delivered to say Ottawa and moving it around the city to the various different users. So, in general terms, transmission operates at higher voltages, distribution systems are lower voltages. Now, what we have the situation is not… getting rid of the big single generating stations, what we call base-loaded stations, because they operate continuously. And as the load increases and decreases, smaller units in the traditional system would be brought online to generate more power, or taken offline if the load decreases. Well with the new system with depending on renewable sources, like solar and wind, their power output is variable, as you well understand. The solar doesn’t generate power at night… also during the evening, during the year with sola, the days are shorter in winter, longer in the summer. So, there’s a lot of things that can affect the output of solar. And likewise… wind: can generate power at night, it all depends on when the winds blow. But both of these sources are subject to… variations, weather variations, cloud cover, lack of wind, high win, and so on. So, the first major difference of a big dependence on renewable energy is we have to accommodate that variability. And if we’re going to go away from base-generating plants like large coal-fired plants, then we have to have a way to store the energy that’s being generated by solar and wind. So it’s observable even today… in California, we have a lot of solar. We’ve had times during the summer, when the solar output was so great, that it couldn’t all be used. Some of it was shipped to other states. But some of it basically couldn’t be used. And what do you have electricity that you can’t use, you can’t do the ocean, you have to turn off some of the plants.

Metta Spencer  

It keeps, suppose you don’t turn it off, and you get an overload what happens?

Craig Smith  

Well, that could be bad, that could be a problem for the system operator. But they have means to protect against that. But it’s an economic loss, if you have to turn off a plant that’s. generating very inexpensive electricity, and you suddenly just can’t sell it, you can’t use it. So, you have to disconnect it from the system. So, storage is important. And there’s a lot of research going on to develop, improve batteries, we’re talking about utility-size batteries, these are giant installations. And the costs are coming down rapidly. And so that’s part of your plank… R&D to develop improve storage systems, we actually have had for decades one type of storage system, which is exists in Canada, you may not even think of it this way, but the largest actually existing storage capacity today is something called “pumped hydro”. … So, this is when dams are available to generate electricity, water flows over the dam turns the generators and provides power. Now, during times when the power is not needed… particular types of generators specially designed for this purpose… can operate in reverse as pumps. So, let’s say at a time when the electricity is not needed, they pump water back up into the dam and effectively are storing energy so that when the demand increases, they turn the flow around, water coming back through the “pump/generator” and generates electricity.

Metta Spencer  

Don’t you lose a lot of energy that way? I mean, just sounds like a I don’t know kind of a funny way of doing things is it efficient? Or do you lose a lot of your energy by doing it that way?

Craig Smith  

It’s no, it’s pretty efficient. It’s a little less efficient than just straight generation. But the main difficulty today is it’s limited in capacity. In other words, we’re not going to see much more pump storage built. And the reason for that is that the good dam sites have been used up. Generally speaking, people don’t want to dam up rivers anymore. So, we’re not going to have a lot of new opportunities for pump storage. So, we have to go to batteries and other methods. There are some more exotic methods that people have looked at storing energy underground by compressing air and pumping it into underground reservoirs and then… use compressed air to turn a turbine… or other things, but none of these —

Metta Spencer  

I saw something about not all of this is part of the same idea but molten salt, like some of these concentrating solar powered things, where they use mirrors in a circle and they make… heat and it goes into underground molten salt, which keeps it hot for longer. And then overnight, you can use it. Is that yeah, is that part of the same idea of sort of —

Craig Smith

— part of the same idea, yeah. But again, I think… without major technological changes in efficiency, and cost improvements, those are going to be marginal. The main thing is going to be the large battery installations. But I’d like to change the subject a little bit and say… we’ve got to modify the electrical grid… there are a number of things that can be done at the user end. And so, utilities are starting to do this, they’re starting to install things like so-called “smart meters”. So, imagine you had an electrical meter in your house, and you could open up your phone at any time and see how much electricity you’re using, and what it was costing you at that particular point in time. And say, you’re about to run… your clothes dryer, and you didn’t have any urgent need to do it. So, you could say… if I do it, right now, it’s going to be costing me 30 cents a kilowatt hour. But if I wait and do it tonight, at nine o’clock, it’s only gonna cost me 10 cents. And so those kinds of decisions are going to be available to people. The other thing is, all … house control systems are increasingly becoming available. So, you could be visiting your dear friend in some other part of town, and it started snowing and you got to drive home, you want to warm the house up, you get on your phone, you turn your furnace on, you turn the lights on, you do everything you do while you’re driving in the process of driving home. So those kinds of things.

Metta Spencer  

That’s what they call the Internet of Things, isn’t it? 

Craig Smith  

Yeah… the opposite side of that is you’re on a trip somewhere, you say oh my gosh, I left I left the furnace going and you want to turn it off, or you’re gonna be gone for four days or something. So dynamic pricing, smart meters, these are all part of elements of what’s coming with the improved electric grid. Another thing that… might be particularly of interest to some of your listeners in Canada, is the concept of “micro-grid”. We’ve been developing some micro-grids in California, and recently because of … the horrible fires last year. Our Energy Commission is funding more… demonstration projects… for example, the city of Paradise, which literally, that whole city burned down because the power wasn’t turned off when the indications [were] that a fire potential existed, [they] didn’t want to leave all those people without power. I mean, there are people with medical problems and you know, have medical systems at home they need to have operating. Well, a micro-grid would have solved that old problem. And there is a micro-grid… that I visited in the town of Borrego Springs. Borrego Springs is in the desert, east of San Diego. And it’s served by a transmission line that goes over the mountains from San Diego into this small town and in the desert about 100 miles. And that was that town’s only link to power. So, when there were fires or… earthquake or other disruptions, they were stuck. They had no power. So, what they have done and this has been a demonstration project put together by San Diego Gas and Electric. They built a micro-grid. So they have a number of homes there [that] have solar rooftop, solar generating stations. They put in two large solar farms. They put in a couple of diesel generators and a large bank of storage batteries, major utility-size batteries. And so now what happens if they have any fire problems… [if] that link to the coast has to be disconnected, their micro-grid flips on. And they’re self-sufficient. They can go for four or five days without having any need to be connected to the outside world… during the daylight hours are drawing power off their solar system, both the rooftop systems and the solar farms that are also charging the storage systems — at night, they draw power from the storage systems. And then they have some large diesel generators [so] that if all else fails… they don’t start running low, they can fire up the diesels and meet the requirement. So something like that might have saved the entire city of Paradise, California.

Metta Spencer  

So, this would take care of maybe 100 houses or a town of 10,000 or something like that. How big more than 100

Craig Smith  

more than 100. I forget what Borrego Springs is, it’s at least in the 1000s of people. I mean, there’s stores, a community, their houses, hotels, resorts, it’s a desert resort, among other things. So —

Metta Spencer  

They could vary in size, what a micro-grid is, might vary, from a little a neighborhood to pretty big city or how much? Well, I guess I’m looking for. Is there a standard notion of how big is a micro-grid?

Craig Smith  

No, I don’t think there’s a standard notion… Also, there are things like college campuses, multiple buildings —

Metta Spencer  

And they would have

Craig Smith  

and they have their own system. Yeah. Which is probably what I would describe as the lower end, or smaller end, of micro-grid. So, they’re connected to the main grid, but in problems… they can disconnect.

Metta Spencer  

When you say we should have more micro grids, are you saying that, you know, as a whole society might be better to decentralize and have a whole bunch of local… independent grids, than to have one big system?

Craig Smith  

No, I’m not saying that. Because that that will lead to tremendous interconnection, difficulties… coordination difficulties. Okay. But I think it’s very applicable for remote communities and areas where there are risks associated with natural disasters, earthquakes, huge storms, fires, something that we should look at. I think the main Yes, go ahead —

Metta Spencer  

Yeah, I another question occurs to me, something I read two or three years ago, which sort of contrasts with what you’re saying… so far, what you’ve been talking about is developing more capacity for a grid to keep functioning with what it’s got. But I read someplace, somebody said… one side of the world is dark, while the other side is light. So, we could have all of our, all of our electricity, or most of it being generated on the place where there’s sunshine, and use direct current to send it to the places that are dark, that would be an alternative to storage, wouldn’t it? And is there any merit to that idea? Or is that just a more expensive and and unreasonable alternative?

Craig Smith  

No, I think there’s a lot of merit to that idea. And let me tell you why. And this gets back to your original question about direct current. Direct current is important in the bigger sense of transmission of power, not distribution transmission, where you want to move large blocks of power from point A to point B with the minimum amount of losses. And so, losses… in electricity flow are proportional to the magnitude of the current. So basic physics in this case is that power is equal to the product of the voltage times the current, known as Ohm’s law. So, If you want to move large amounts of power, you have to have high currents. However, with alternating current, the higher the current, the greater the losses, through just the resistance of the conductors. Plus, as you get the very high voltages with alternating current, it begins to actually radiate out of the transmission lines into space, the transmission lines start acting like a radio antenna. So those two factors combine to increase the losses as you increase the amount of power being transmitted by alternating current.

Metta Spencer  

These goofy ideas keep popping into my head at the wrong time. I have to say them while they’re here. Well, I had a friend who lived right near a one of these huge transmission lines. And her son was not sleeping well or something like that. And there was some conversation about Could it be that there was seepage of, of electricity into their house from this transmission line and bothering this child physiologically? I mean, you know, it was a strange idea. Is that a completely silly idea? Or is there’s possibly something to that kind of thing?

Craig Smith  

I think that’s been disproved. I mean, there is radiation. I put that in the category of people saying that when you talk on your smartphone, you’re putting radiation into your brain.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah, well, I just count that or not. I mean, you do discount that, you don’t think it’s true?

Craig Smith  

I don’t think it’s significant. Let’s put it that way. And typically, our utilities keep the area under transmission lines clear. They may have farmers’ planted crops, you probably seen this, but they’re the broad right of way for transmission lines. So, people are maintained at a distance where that radiation or electromagnetic energy from the transmission lines is dissipated down to levels that are inconsequential.

Metta Spencer  

Okay, so I distracted you Sorry.

Craig Smith  

That’s all right. That’s all right. Don’t worry about that. Anyway, back to direct-current. So direct current has the advantage that it doesn’t have some of these losses associated with alternating current when you’re operating at very high voltages. So… as an example, in California, we’ve had for many years, a high voltage direct current line that comes from the state of Washington. The Bonneville Power Administration in the state of Washington, a federal project, operates large dams that generate huge amounts of electricity. And that power is converted to direct current in Washington. And then it’s sent down to California as direct current over a high voltage direct-current transmission line. It comes into an area just north of the city out in the San Fernando Valley where there’s a huge inverter station, receives the direct current inverts it (in other words, converts it) to alternate current and feeds it into the grid that supplies Southern California. And that’s been in operation for at least 50 years, I would say. So more systems like that would be useful. I did tell a little side story in… 1973 I believe, the San Fernando earthquake, I got a call from the Edison company. My company that times was doing a lot of work on seismic effects on power insulation. They said we need you to come out to the Sylmar Converter Station. This is… where the DC power from the Northwest arrives. So, I drove out there with some of my colleagues and some instruments and so on and we looked at this expensive equipment that was used to convert the direct current to the AC. Long giant insulators, ceramic insulators, poles and wires and cables. It was like a bomb had gone off. All that stuff was shattered in 30 seconds, that thing was just destroyed from this earthquake, took a year to get it back in operation. So that was one of my first real exposures to high voltage DC. Looking at the mess,

Metta Spencer  

Well, what happened during that period of time was everybody depending on it, and what they do instead?

Craig Smith  

Well, they had to get different… sources. Utilities usually have some backup generators; they keep them on standby. [They] borrowed power from other from Arizona and other places that didn’t hadn’t suffered damage. So yeah, there was a lot of scrambling to take care of that. At the same time, there are a lot of buildings, residences and commercial buildings, that were destroyed by the earthquake, and they weren’t needing power anymore for a while. So there were some offsetting things. But back to your earlier comment, I think is a very interesting thing. You know, we talk about fossil fuels. And what are what are the what’s the infrastructure associated with fossil fuels? Well, we have huge… proposed pipelines between Canada and the US, a controversial project, as you know, that just got canceled or stopped (supposedly, I don’t know exactly what’s gonna happen) by President Biden. The whole of North America is crisscross by pipelines that transfer gas and oil. So, we have refineries, we have huge plants that convert natural gas into liquified natural gas. And ships, special tankers that take it across to Asia, to Japan… another huge plant that converts it back to natural gas. And of course, huge plants that are oil refineries that convert oil. So giant infrastructure associated with the fossil fuel industry. Not to mention coal mines, and, and so on, not also to mention health hazards, the accidents that are contingent on these facilities. So now let me propose doing what you said we would, build solar huge numbers of solar plants in the Middle East, and transmit that power by high voltage DC lines, even underwater, under the ocean to Europe… people will say, that’s crazy, but it’s not crazy. And when you compare, compare the infrastructure investment that we have right now, this would be much less. So, there’s some very exciting things that ultimately can be done if we broaden our thinking, and start trying to be more creative. And I think those things are actually starting to happen right now. And the other interesting thing is, I don’t know that we need Mr. Biden to spend $1.9 trillion to make these things happen. I think a lot of it’s going to happen by industry and by investors and people seeing the economic opportunity. And there are things that… governments can do to create incentives. But I don’t think we have to honestly pay for it all, you know. Anyway, that’s a that’s a different topics. Let me see. I’ve got — 

Metta Spencer  

something else that this thing in our plank here that I didn’t understand, called demand system management. What’s that all about? 

Craig Smith  

Okay, well, demand system management… to control the demand for electricity. And that’s, that’s something it’s been around for a number of years. In fact, my former company… developed… a demand-side management program for a number of major American utilities. And this was helping utilities assist their customers in installing heat pumps, rather than gas burning heaters; more efficient lighting systems, better lighting controls. A good example is an occupancy sensor. So, in… buildings where you have public restrooms, you don’t have to have the light on the whole time, 24 hours a day, you have it set up so when somebody opens the door, the light goes on, when they leave 15 or some prescribed time later, the lights go back off. Those are all demand-side management things, all ways to control power usage. So you avoid waste —

Metta Spencer  

Well, and they’re worthwhile having it in one’s own home. I mean, if I if I, you know, I leave lights on all over the place, it’d probably be smart if something would turn it off behind me when I leave the room. But I don’t always do that by any means. Would that it? Is it economical to install something like in an ordinary household?

Craig Smith  

Oh, yes… it’s particularly economical if it’s done in original construction. In your case, I mean, if you want to do it in your house, [there are] actually devices, you can go to your own supply store and you can buy a little thing, you, you plug it into the wall, and you plug the light into it. And it will sense when you come into the room, or you clap your hands and it turns the lights on and turns them off. After a certain delay… today there are 1000s of those types of devices —

Metta Spencer  

That okay, I don’t think it would work here because I live in a condo, high-rise condo, and all of our electrical system is connected. In fact, a few years ago, somebody, one of the supers told me that they were going to switch it so that we each pay for our own … electricity, because now we just have a flat rate, we pay for all apartments. And they haven’t done that. But I don’t think that it would be easy to meter, my own apartment separately, would it?

Craig Smith  

It wouldn’t be that difficult. It’s hard to say because it depends how the building was wired in the first place. But a lot of a lot of apartments and condominiums and so on are recognizing that that’s, that would be to your advantage. Because right now, if somebody else goes off for a month leaving all the lights on, you’re paying for it. You’re helping pay for it, I should say. So [to] have your own control… generally results in everybody using less.

Metta Spencer  

So, everybody is good. This is a coming thing. We’re gonna see more of that.

Craig Smith  

I believe we will. Yes. Okay.

Metta Spencer  

And, and the, the question of storage now. I get things talking about lithium. Now is lithium. As I understand it, lithium is the main thing they use in batteries, right?

Craig Smith  

lithium, lithium hydride as one of the main types of batteries… there are other storage batteries. And there… is a tremendous amount of research going on finding and exploring other ways. I’m not an authority on all the new batteries that come out —

Metta Spencer  

I’m saying, you know, they were talking when one of those planes went down someplace. It said that may have been caught fire because somebody had a laptop computer with a lithium battery. And that lithium is, can start fires. Yeah. You know, which I put that in my memory bank thinking well, maybe I should think about that someday. Is lithium a problem? a threat?

Craig Smith  

Well, I wouldn’t call it a threat. I would say it can be a problem… it can cause fires. You know, we have today millions of advanced devices using lithium batteries. I’m talking to you on one of them. But yes, it can be a hazard. I never charge my phone or other things, leave them when I’m not around, or have them run all night or anything like that. Yeah. You don’t want them to overheat. The worst case of this happened — actually, I don’t know about a plane. I hadn’t heard about that. — But I can tell you a true real-life example was a boat in Southern California that took people over to the Channel Islands for diving and snorkeling and so on out of Oxnard. And so, this boat goes over there and anchors by the offshore island by Santa Cruz Island, they have about 30 people on board and they all have smartphones, cameras, underwater devices and they’re plugging these in to recharge them and if they go down below to sleep and… one of these devices overheated and caught fire and triggered the fire, and… 30 some people down below, two exits, one out of one end, one very hard to get up out of… climb out through a hatch; and one crewman down there, two crewmen supposedly on watch upstairs, both of them asleep. And the upshot is all the people down below died, the boat burned up and sank, the 2 crewmen above jumped in the water and swam to another boat, a terrible tragedy. And this boat’s electrical system was never intended to recharge, you know, dozens and dozens of devices like this. And then there were some safety features that weren’t proper. And it’s a terrible tragedy. But that gives you an idea of the risks. So yes, we have to be careful about that. 

Metta Spencer  

Well, now, if there’s trying to find things other than lithium, are there other things that are less risky that that wouldn’t have… that danger?

Craig Smith  

I am inclined to say yes. But frankly, I’m not up on all the latest battery developments. I haven’t paid that much attention to it. Well, let me let me just explain that when we’re talking about the utility-system batteries, which is what I’ve been primarily concerned about, you might you want to think of these like a giant… railroad car? Big, typically mobile, like a big van, and they’re brought on to a utility substation and parked there permanently. So they’re not gonna pose a risk to you or I.

Metta Spencer  

Okay, well, do we, I was hearing a couple of years ago that the real big quest was for the perfect battery… whoever comes up with the really better battery is going to, you know, be the giant of the… 21st century. It is there still a race for improving batteries? Or are they getting their it one by one a little bit at a time incrementally?

Craig Smith  

Well, I would say yes, there’s certainly a race, certainly a lot of work all over the world trying to find time to develop better, more efficient, bigger and cheaper batteries. So far, it’s very clear that costs have come down dramatically. The costs on lithium hydride and other batteries because of just making more of them, and the costs of manufacturing are, are dropping. So as far as any new I can’t tell you what the prognosis would be for a future winner as it were. I don’t know what that might be. But

Metta Spencer  

but we’re getting there in terms of improving the or maybe it does need one huge impetus from say the US government to overhaul the entire US electrical system, or is this something that you think can be done piece by piece? locally?

Craig Smith  

Well, I think the government can do a lot in any country because it’s like, when Eisenhower became president, after the war, he was instrumental in getting the US intercontinental highway system, establish the freeways, you know, he drives from Washington, New York to California. So, there is the need to have somebody that’s going to at the federal level to deal with all the crossing barriers of the different states, you know… making that happen. States have different rules, different laws, somebody has to make it possible. And so, there’s definitely a role for the federal government. I think it’s a serve them pay for it all. I just need to make it happen.

Metta Spencer  

That smooths the way you’re talking about infrastructure investing a lot of infrastructure in the US. And I presume that’s a good chunk of the infrastructure they’re going to improve, right? Or are they talking about sewers and things?

Craig Smith  

Well, there are plenty of other there plenty of things that need to be done. But certainly, electrical grid is going to be… one primary target. And there’s just a lot of what we call deferred maintenance, which means you just haven’t done anything to bridges. And highways are falling apart, and those things need to be fixed. That’s more of an economic issue rather than global warming issue. But the government also has talked about incentivizing the installation of hundreds of 1000s of electric-vehicle charging stations across the country, that will make people more confident about driving from California to Arizona to visit Grandma, for example, if they don’t have to worry about running out of electricity in their EV, their electric vehicle in the middle of desert. Sure, so —

Metta Spencer  

Well, I feel better already, Craig… you just made up for all those years when my physics teacher did his best but failed. Now I feel smart and ready to go out and tackle the world and fix our electric grid. So maybe the two of us can get together and cook up something.

Craig Smith  

All right. Well, as always, a pleasure talking with you. You stay safe. Okay, stay warm. 

Metta Spencer  

And listen, you guys in California are messing up with COVID though. What’s the matter with you guys? I mean, we’re not doing so well here. But wow, I hear about California is in big trouble. 

Craig Smith

It’s been really bad. I do want to let you know that. I feel fortunate my wife and I both received the first Pfizer vaccine a week ago. Oh, yeah. I think my next-door neighbors have also done that.

Metta Spencer  

Oh, yeah. Your next-door neighbors, my brother is that the neighborhood.

Craig Smith

And that’s the luck of the draw my co-author, his wife has gotten one but he has not yet had a approved appointment. So, he’s anxiously awaiting. I told him she was more important than he is. But he didn’t like to.

Metta Spencer  

Well, I think we you know, it’s a race now because they say this, these new variants. Today’s papers said that the British variant is something like 30% more deadly.

Craig Smith 

Yeah, I don’t know. Yeah, it’s just so terrible. Yeah, anyway, we just stay safe. Do what you’re doing. Don’t take any shortcuts. All right. I’m still doing exactly what I’ve been doing for the last 10 months I shelter in place. I don’t go anywhere. I always wear a mask. I don’t go out to strange places. I haven’t been out to any restaurants. Sort of a boring life, but I don’t think worth the risk.

Metta Spencer  

I have I have been out and I think 11 months now I just counted it up. And I because it’s been about 11 minutes, you know, and I haven’t been out of my apartment except I once went to the garbage chute. At one I

Craig Smith

Well, we have to make shopping runs obviously, to get food. Oh, no. You can do that infrequently. And we have some close supermarkets that have special hours at six in the morning only people. Elderly people are allowed in and we go in and we race to the door, fill two carts, checkout, get the hell home.

Metta Spencer  

I have delivered when I need it. But I also have a 12-year-old girl in my building who runs errands for me twice a week. Oh, that’s not my mail and my goes to the pharmacy and things like that. So, I’m fine. You know that I have the I have a better social life than ever. Because I do this every day. We do a lot of this. Anyway, it’s been fun. Thank you again. I really have another session one of these times soon. Okay,

Craig Smith

Great. All right. My pleasure. Bye bye.

T217. Chernobyl

T217. Chernobyl

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number: 217
Panelists: Kate Brown
Host: Metta Spencer

Date Aired:  30 March 2021
Date Transcribed and Verified:  7 May 2021
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits: David Millar

 

Metta Spencer  

Hi, I’m Metta Spencer. And today we’re going to Chernobyl. only thank goodness, we don’t really have to go to Chernobyl. Or we can do it by curiously through our guest, who knows the place pretty well and the surroundings very well. This is Kate Brown, who’s a history professor at MIT, and who speaks Russian and knows Russian. So that was a big asset for her research, which produced a book a couple of years ago. Can’t remember the title. Okay, what’s the title of your book,

Kate Brown  

Manual for Survival: A Chernobyl Guide to the Future 

Metta Spencer  

Good. Well, it’s a terrific book and before that you had a book with a, I think, more memorable title… Plutopia. Yeah, a wonderful title that described the risks of living around a place, such as Hanford, Washington, where the plutonium bits for American nuclear weapons were produced, and it was not a healthy place. Okay, so let’s get down to business, Kate, because I know you’ve got to rush off and do other things today. Tell me about your book, I’m going to let you do most of the guidance. You know what you need to cover on this? I let me say this much. Before I read your book, I had heard estimates about how many people had been killed in the Chernobyl disaster, ranging from I think, 20, or something like that to 1 million. So, it’s someplace in that vicinity, which is one hell of a wide swathe of population to try to, you know, well, what kind of an estimate is that? But you are in a position to actually look at documents that probably would have been ignored by the rest of the world who didn’t speak Russian, right? and talk to people. So, what did you find out? And what did you conclude? And what is this a healthy environment around there? Or What’s the situation?

Kate Brown  

Well, that was one of my main questions is, you know, we have this large range of possible fatalities from Chernobyl, we know definitely 33 firemen and nuclear plant operators died. And a lot of the UN documents have this range between 33 and 54, dead from Chernobyl, and then, you know, a couple 1000 kids with easily treatable, they would say that word, cancer. And then Greenpeace and other organizations had much higher counts 200,000 potential people who would eventually die. So, I, I worked, you know, I thought I would go into the first Ministry of Health archives of the Soviet Union and try to figure out if I could, if I could get, you know, just the sheer answer about, you know, fatalities and public health impact. So wanted to know about the environmental impact. So, I worked my way through about 27 archives for this story, because as I got into the archives in Kiev, and I moved on, to the provincial archives, into the National Archives in Moscow, and then over to Belarus, and did the same sort of up and down the ranks of government bureaucracies. I was finding a pretty disturbing story of people on the ground, who were mostly doctors and radiation monitors. And they were saying, … we don’t know, there are no radiation… we have no maps of radiation and where it’s spread, and we’re told everything’s fine. And we’re told that our food is fine. But what we see is a troubling uptick in the frequencies of diseases among the populations that live in our areas, and they start sending these letters in… to Kiev, and Kiev usually cleans it up and sends it up to Moscow. And I see… this correspondence starting to happen… within a couple of months of the accident, the official count is 300 people were hospitalized after the accident. That was just a number from one hospital. And that hospital was a special radiation medicine hospital in Moscow, where they brought the most acute cases, but not 300. But my count is 40,000 people were hospitalized from Chernobyl exposures in the summer after the accident — in about a quarter of these people… 1000 of them were children. As time goes on, at that age, I thought, well, how are they getting these exposures? And so, I went into the Ministry of Agriculture records. And I found that though Moscow officials said, you know, we’ve tested the food and we find the food is safe — is that in classified documents, they’re saying they’re finding irradiated food all the way up and down the food chain pretty much everywhere where humans congregated. They brought with them radioactive isotopes from the surrounding countryside, in the forests, into the villages and towns where they lived, and so places of human habitation became your epicenters. Because of human activity. Humans take what they find in that larger area. They bring it where they live because of that, and because of the food sources… people were taking in chronic levels, low dose levels of radioactivity. So, this makes for a, you know, a very different situation from Hiroshima. Hiroshima was counted as one big X ray and the atomic bomb survivor studies, calculates this sort of less than a millisecond of exposure of gamma rays going through people’s bodies, and then those gamma rays keep going. And they count the damage that those milliseconds of gamma rays in the bodies caused. So, when… officials came in, in the… late 1980s, and early 1990s, and said… we’re looking at these doses, these people are receiving because they held up Geiger counters, they looked at the gamma rays coming from the soils and coming from the trees. And these doses are far lower than the Hiroshima doses. So therefore, we don’t expect to see any health problems… they were counting gamma rays in the, in the trees, ambient environment, you know, they would hold a Geiger counter up and say this is … like what you’d find if you flew in an airplane, that kind of stuff. But what was different about Chernobyl from Hiroshima was that people were eating radioactive substances in their fruit, you know, just incredible, you know, it’s in the milk. It was in the meat, it was in the wheat, the honey, the tea, backyard vegetables, you name it, in the water people drink. They tracked in… the mud… as they went inside, you know, so it was in the air, is in the dust. So, this is this is the kind of situation — that you really had no existing large scale health studies to measure. So, they extrapolated to Hiroshima, but that was sort of a false level of comparison. And over and over again, the Russian and Ukrainian medical people and scientists kept saying, but you have it wrong, you’re not listening to us. We you know, we have all these kids here. After three years, and then four years, especially with thyroid cancer, we used to never have thyroid cancer in children. And now we have, you know, 20 in Ukraine, and 30 in Belarus, and then the next year … 100. And the numbers kept growing like that. The international community knew as the Soviet Union fell apart, the international community took over assessing the health and environmental consequences of the Chernobyl disaster. And then as they came in, first, you know, the World Health Organization came in, and within two weeks, they said, we don’t see any problems. Nobody took that assessment seriously. So then, Moscow invited the International Atomic Energy Agency… IAEA is set up… to promote peaceful Uses of nuclear energy. So, they’re a lobbying organization. And they knew they were like, if we do an assessment, nobody will believe us, because we’re a lobby. We’re a nuclear lobby. So, they created a Interagency Committee called the International Chernobyl project, which the IAEA led, but it looks like a more neutral organization, the International Chernobyl program, an interagency UN project. And so, they went in… did … studies and they ran them against some version of data and published this report in 1991 that said… 33 people died. We don’t see any… people on the ground are not healthy, but we don’t think their health problems are related to Chernobyl exposures, it’s probably a psychological stress that’s causing their problems. And we recommend, two things not happen — that were in the works to happen, the UN was raising money to have to move 200,000 people from Chernobyl contaminated areas because local doctors on the ground were seeing receiving this tremendous series of health problems, problems related to the thyroid and the endocrine system, circulation system, digestive tract disorders, autoimmune disorders, and birth defects.

Metta Spencer  

These primarily cancers or

Kate Brown  

other Oh, these are what this are like sub-acute effects… that’s the other problem with a version of studies is they only look for acute effects, deaths and cancers that caused death. But people were getting sick with… chronic ailments that really caused life, daily life, to be miserable, but they weren’t dying immediately from them, they will linger around with these problems, we find that people have, on average — the one study that’s looked at this — about 15 years shorter lives than everybody else in in Ukraine and Belarus, so they’re not dying immediately from it, but their quality of life is, is pretty miserable. And so, like what we have is new charts at the county level that shows before 1986, the Soviet medicine medical system would look at every kid and they’d say 80% of the kids are in the healthy category, and 10-20% have some chronic illness or another — after 1987, those numbers flip. And what we see is 80-90% of kids have one or two chronic health problems, and 10-20% are deemed healthy by… Soviet metrics. So this is big, you know, so this, these are the kinds of things people are getting really alarmed about. And so, they wanted to move people to safer ground — 200,000 people, a big movement, they originally only moved 220,000 people so almost double the number are gonna be moved again. And the other reason Ukrainians are asking the UN for monetary help in the form of $1 billion in today’s money to move these 200,000 people and to carry out a long term, large population health study of Chernobyl survivors, based on this idea of chronic low doses of exposure, so they wanted to do a Hiroshima-type study, but in this different radiation context, the IAEA study, they rushed it so that it came in before that pledge drive, went in the General Assembly of the UN, and they rushed it and they said, listen, we don’t see any reason to have to fund these projects. We see no health problems; we don’t think we’ll see any in the future except maybe a tiny bump of kids with thyroid cancer in the future. At the time, they had biopsies of kids who had thyroid cancer in the present, but they didn’t acknowledge — they said, you know, we’ve heard stories of thyroid cancer, but those stories and publication are anecdotal in nature. So I went on to work in about five UN agencies.

Metta Spencer  

I could only ask what was going on at that point? Was there some kind of… vested interest? Certainly, this is the this is the group of investigators who were set up by and accountable to IAEA right. So, in a way they had their loyalties is that

Kate Brown  

that’s a great question that what’s going on at the time? It’s a great question, because you know, here we are at the end of the Cold War. And what happened at the end of the Cold War is that there’s no longer reasons to… keep the same kind of vigilance on nuclear secrets. So, Yeltsin starts in 1992, he opens the Soviet archives and says, take a look at what we’ve got here. Look at the Soviet record, the Americans start to opening their nuclear archives, and the [US] Department of Energy is forced by protesters… starting in the mid-1980s, to release in declassified documents, same things happened in Great Britain. So, all of a sudden, all these people are coming to their governments, and they’re saying, look, look at this record, I was living downwind from the Nevada Test Site, I was living near the Hanford plutonium factory. I was living next… in Algeria, where the French were testing. I was living in Western Australia, where the British were testing nuclear weapons. And I feel like my health problems are due to those exposures. And so, lawsuits, billions and dollars potentially of lawsuits are popping up like mushrooms after rain. And so, the Association of American Health Physicists met a year after Chernobyl in 1987… right outside of Washington, DC. Health physicists are people who… deem, you know, if nuclear reactors are safe, and if, you know, people who work in reactors have had exposure… they’re the people who do this. And so, they were meeting to have their annual professional conference, business as usual. But they were met, and a keynote was given to them by… a lawyer from the Department of Energy. And he said the biggest threat to nuclear power today is not another accident, like Three Mile Island seven years ago, and Chernobyl last year — but lawsuits. And so, they went these health physicists went into breakout groups, and they were schooled by Department of Justice lawyers to learn how to become effective witnesses on behalf of the US government, to defend against lawsuits… under the guise of objective scientists.

Metta Spencer  

That is just appalling.

Kate Brown  

So that’s the content. And then you could say,

Metta Spencer  

did the whole profession sort of line up behind the government in this o

Kate Brown  

Well,

Metta Spencer  

I mean, not everybody because I like case of individual corruption or what kind of thinking went on among people who are professionals supposed to be looking after the public health who is so easily persuaded to lie if that’s what the implication is of what you’re saying.

Kate Brown  

I’m not saying that they lied, I’m saying that they were strongly encouraged in school to have a certain particular kind of response. And if you think about this time, I mean, who you know where to help physicists work, they usually work for some facet of nuclear industries or a nuclear regulatory agency or they work in a government agency. So, there were very are very few independent scholars who work on these issues. A couple of steps forward, Steve Wing at the University of North Carolina, David Richardson, also an epidemiologist, Rosalie Bertell… she wrote to the UN and said, I’m, I’m willing to help … but those letters went unanswered, these people were not tapped, they tapped into people who already were sort of industry scientists. So, they also had another motivation, you know, in addition to losing biopsies, or overlooking evidence, which is that they’ve been working for decades with these Hiroshima models, which, which were manifest in these charts. And these charts said, If you got this certain exposure, you had this… extra percentage of getting cancer .05 or .02%, of getting cancer in the future. And they worked with these models. And… if you… worked in… radiation diagnostics, … you give people CAT scans. We gave people x rays, you gave people radioactive iodine, just to cure their cancers. So, to suddenly flip around, and say, oh, gosh, we’ve been dying, we’ve been giving people these doses of radiation thinking it was safe. And now to suddenly have to change the science that was behind… those parameters, that risk-management strategy was just a big, intellectual leap to take. And it took a long time, it took them until 1996, to recognize the huge epidemic of childhood thyroid cancer in Ukraine and Belarus and Western Russia, they finally had to say, yeah, you know, the Russian doctors were right, when they were talking about this problem in 1989. There is a big epidemic of… cancer. And it came quicker than we realized it, quicker than our stated latency period. And it came was much more powerful than effect. So, this is the kind of, you know, scientists, slow science, conservative, and maybe that’s good. So, I don’t want to accuse them of blindness, I think that they believed in their science, and they believed in the goodness, and the value of their knowledge, and to have it upset by Chernobyl. And then, you know, on the part of scientific administrators who often direct scientists, who pay their bills and give them tasks who publish, release, or don’t release the studies that they do, the scientific administrators could mobilize Chernobyl, they could say, look, Chernobyl… world’s worst nuclear accident, and only 50-55 people died, we can handle it, as Burton Bennett said, have a view and we can handle that kind of damage and go forward into the… beautiful nuclear future. So, Chernobyl became this really critical, you know, deposition lawyers working for plaintiffs looked for Chernobyl studies to try to make their case in court. Health physicists, you know, working on behalf of these governments looked for rival Chernobyl studies, in order to make their case in court about people being exposed in bomb tests, people being exposed to bomb production facilities. So Chernobyl was this critical point. What I found is I did my research is that about this question of fatalities. The… Russian governments published no records about it, neither casualties or fatalities related to Chernobyl, they just there’s just almost nothing out there. Ukraine… got the least amount of Chernobyl radiation, but they do have some numbers…  they give compensation to 35,000 women whose husbands died with a Chernobyl-related illness. That’s 35,000. That’s a very limited number because it just includes men who are old enough to marry and who were married and who had documented exposures. It includes no children, includes no women, in that count. In the 2016 (30 year) anniversary of Chernobyl, Ukrainian officials said that they estimated 150,000 Ukrainians had died. And that’s one Republic out of three, that was heavily hit with Chernobyl, they got 20% of Chernobyl radiation in Ukraine, 80% went to Belarus and western Russia there. So somewhere between 35,000 and 150,000 is a minimum low count for Chernobyl fatalities.

Metta Spencer  

So, you could do some arithmetic and multiply the population size of Belarus and Russia the areas that were exposed, and how much radiation they got. And now, do some, you know, some estimates, right?

Kate Brown  

Yeah, somebody who’s good at math should do that.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah, I think grade school math would do it.

Kate Brown  

Sure. I could.

Metta Spencer  

A 10th grader could certainly do it. Okay, so what who didn’t do that? Has anybody actually made? No? Well, I know that there’s some kind of document that’s in Russian, that was published, some tiny excerpt or synopsis was published in a US journal. And I’m sorry, I don’t remember any more than that. But that it was… these people were estimating a million total deaths. And what am I referring to? Because I, you know, my memory is

Kate Brown  

That was the Yablokov study done with, you know, he worked. The late Alexander (Alexey) Yablokov… compiled all the studies in the Russian language related to Chernobyl, and he kept this growing… compendium, and he was published under the New York State National Endowment of Humanities. And that’s that that estimate comes from that publication from about 2006. I think it’s been he kept updating it until he just died a couple of years ago, he kept updating it throughout his life. So that’s where that’s like, all sort of public peer review, you know, in Russian, kind of peer- reviewed work in Russian, Ukrainian, and Russian. And that’s where that Greenpeace also supports. 

Metta Spencer  

Of course, I’ve heard people say that that’s not a credible source. But, you know, what do you think is that? Is that what kind of numbers should one pay attention to? Or how many of them would you pay attention to?

Kate Brown  

Well, I didn’t use that source, because it’s been so maligned. So, what I used were archival records… the data that fed many of those papers that were done by Ukrainian, Belorussian, Russian scientists. And so, I could check tracking them through the archive, I could check as they were being created, as the studies were in the first forum, the studies and they gather the data, I could check the data, I could see what they’ve… accomplished. So, it’s sort of like, you know, if the papers in those Yablokov studies are sort of the end result, what I was looking at was all the supporting work that led up to it. And I mean, they were there, you know that this is a very valuable font of knowledge. I think more researchers should go into these archives, because what it does is it records for the first time in human history, we have a record of what happens to people when you’re exposed 24/7 to chronic low doses of radiation. And, you know, the Hiroshima study started five years after the bombing, they only formed… AEC, the Atomic Energy Commission only started to fund this in 1950. And they were slow. So, like, some people might have been asked about their exposures. 10 years after the bombing. Here, we have these turnover records, where radiation monitors and doctors are on the ground gathering information within weeks of the accident, and then they keep doing that and all that raw data is stored in the Soviet archives. It’s extremely valuable. And you can

Metta Spencer  

Go see it.

Kate Brown  

Anybody can go see it.

Metta Spencer  

I mean, you could read it. I couldn’t. Okay, good. Now, I’ve heard a couple of questions. One is I have heard that the WHO is in some sense compromised by its power relationship vis-a-vis IAEA, that the WHO has done no significant amount of real evaluation of the health effects or can’t be trusted for the work that’s done, because they are not really allowed to do the kind of research that they should be doing because it’s supposed to be all in the bailiwick of the IAEA. Can you comment on that? Is that true? And what should be done about it?

Kate Brown  

Well, supposedly there’s… an agreement a Memorandum of Understanding In which the World Health Organization cedes authority on nuclear medicine to the International Atomic Energy Agency, I didn’t find any sign of that memorandum. Not that I had full access, especially, I have very limited access to records. But what I did see is that the World Health Organization, and the International Atomic Energy Agency got into a skirmish because… World Health said “We should be deciding on assessments on Chernobyl and health because we’re the health people.” And the IAEA said, “We’re the radiation and nuclear people we should decide.” The IAEA basically won that battle, because they were ranked higher in the UN family… they had a higher status, they had more money. In fact, they had so much money that the UN Scientific Committee for the Effects of Radiation, it’s supposed to be an independent body that looks at the effects of radiation on human health. were basically sort of detailed, you know, inside the IAEA, they gave them funding, they circulated staff through UNSCEAR. And when, you know, people who worked at the UN said, you know, these two agencies are basically merged, we should just formally merge them. And they’re saying this new in the second half of the 1980s and early 1990s, they’re like, No, no, no, we need to have unscared appear to be an objective, independent body, separate from the IAEA. So that’s how things work. There’s a lot of you know, like, at any time in place, things will, you know, there’s politics, like in any human agency, if you look at the IAEA’s website, now, they have a lot to say about cancer, Zika virus — they do, one of their, you know, sort of part of their portfolio now is health, and it’s kind of fascinating, you know, transformation of that agency from just focusing on reactors, and other sort of nuclear policies, to getting into the business of health.

Metta Spencer  

And would their estimates now, the more accurate you think, are they telling it straighter than they used to?

Kate Brown  

I don’t see any sign of that.

Metta Spencer  

No, you still think that there’s still some kind of

Kate Brown  

I just mean, they haven’t updated the documents, everybody’s, you know, quotes that 2006 document, 15 years old, with, with gives these projected casualties into the future, you know, all that all that work, we have more information. Now we have, you know, we need to have funding for study. Until that happens, and there’s it’s not too late to do a long-term study and the effects of terrible exposures. But certainly, that those old documents, you know, referring to those old documents from 2006, highly political. doesn’t make any sense.

Metta Spencer  

So, what we should be demanding is some kind of new effort to start telling the truth, not just about Chernobyl, but about the whole the whole business of exposure to radiation. Right. And how many people have been affected by it in the world? You know, I mean, I, one of my dear friends, Doug Saunders just wrote an article in The Globe and Mail saying, “Oh, we’ve drawn the wrong conclusion about Fukushima, because Fukushima shows that nobody has died. And it’s really an okay thing.” Have you looked at any of that? Do you? And by the way, I mean, the Fukushima thing, I suppose the if the effects are at all there, they would occur more like the effects of of Chernobyl than of of Hiroshima, because people would be affected by ingestion of the of the radiation, more than a sudden blast of it. Yeah.

Kate Brown  

Is that right? Or what I’ve learned, I have not looked into Fukushima because I’m, I’m an empiricist. And I believe in working in primary sources and working in the language of a place, so I don’t know Japanese. So I haven’t met read, you know, what I’ve read, but you read, you know, in the English language press, but I haven’t looked into that, I, what I’ve become convinced is that every nuclear event is really its own particular incident that may or may — this is less easy to extrapolate from event to event — that we, that each needs to be studied separately because it’s ecologies, the nature, the cocktail of environmental of radioactive toxins, and individual, the kinds of bodies that are exposed, they’re all original. They’re all quite unique. And I’m sorry, do we have to go so

Metta Spencer  

and that’s that it’s been very enlightening and you are good at talking. getting it out there quickly. So, thank you very much. Have a great day. Okay. Somebody to see you again.

Kate Brown  

Thank you. Take care. Bye bye.

T130. Climate as War

T130. Climate as War

 

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number:  130
Panelists: Seth Klein
Host: Metta Spencer

Date Aired:  21 September 2020
Date Transcribed and Verified:  14 May 2021
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits:  David Millar

Metta Spencer  

Hi, I’m Metta Spencer, today I have a real treat, I get to have a conversation with an old friend that I haven’t really had a good talk with for 25 years, has it been, something like that. And this is Seth Klein. And when I knew Seth, he was a high school kid traveling around Canada, trying to tell high school students why they should oppose nuclear weapons. Boy, he did a great job of it, and with three of his high school friends, and I one time I had to go away and I was teaching at the university had a course, which I thought would be fun for him. So, he pitched it for me. When I went away, he taught my course for a while. And I got good reports on how it was that this high school teacher, high school kid! was teaching my undergraduate class. And really, they were lapping it up. Anyway, hello, Seth Klein.

Seth Klein  

Hi, Metta. Nice to see you. After all this time,

Metta Spencer  

it is wonderful to see you. And this is a time for us to get caught up. If you the audience don’t mind a little bit. I want to find out what’s happened to the last 25 or so years? Because I do know what you’ve been doing for something like 22 of those years. You were the director of what is it called the

Seth Klein  

Canadian Center for Policy alternatives in British Columbia?

Metta Spencer  

Yes, it has to be one of the great if not the greatest Canadian think-tank, right?

Seth Klein  

Well, I think so. Yeah, I finished up school University in Toronto, when you and I knew each other. And I very, very briefly taught high school in Toronto, and then I moved out here. And I I was a teacher fleetingly… and then went back to grad school. And I was hired to open up the BC office of the Canadian Center for Policy Alternatives in the mid-90s. And I spent 22 years there, until I decided to leave a year and a half ago… and write a book.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah. Well, I’ve had a good look at your book. I can’t say pretty long book.

Seth Klein  

Did… here’s the book.

Metta Spencer  

Yes. That’s great. It’s wonderful. Love the title “A Good War”.

Seth Klein  

…I was nervous that you’d hate it. 

Metta Spencer  

Oh, no, I almost, I was going to write a book called the good fight.

Seth Klein  

Oh, here we go. Okay.

Metta Spencer  

But I never, I don’t think I ever did any of it. I was just thinking about it. But anyway, that’s a good title. And, yeah, because, you know, they, they talk about World War Two, as the “good war”. And you have to say, if there ever was a good war, a justifiable war, and we could spend our rest of our life talking about that World War II, it has to be one that is pretty hard to see how you could escape that.

Seth Klein  

Yeah. Well, and so I’m an unlikely person, as we both know, to have written a war story. And because as you said, in the intro, I, as a kid, I cut my political teeth in the peace and disarmament movement. I’m actually the child of Vietnam War resisters, that that’s why I’m Canadian, my parents moved to Montreal, pregnant with me when my dad was drafted. So I, I’m as surprised as anyone that I’ve written a war story. And I should say, I didn’t initially intend to, I left the CCPA intending to write a book on the climate crisis, increasingly alarmed about the climate crisis, and increasingly alarmed by this persistent harrowing gap between what the science says we have to do, and what our politics seems prepared to entertain. And what can we do about that? And how can we close that gap? I had always intended to include a chapter on World War Two. Because I’ve always just been intrigued by the fact that we retooled the whole economy so quickly during World War Two. And to me, you know, all of us who wonder, you know, can we really do this in time? You know, the answer is, yeah, we can, because we’ve done it before. In fact, we did it twice in six years, once to ramp up more… production and another time to reconvert. The peace time. But the more I delved into that research, the more I kept seeing these parallels all over the place, and not just with respect to that economic conversion, and ultimately decided to structure the whole book around lessons from the Second World War. So hence, the title, the good war, “a good war” mobilizing Canada for the climate emergency

Metta Spencer  

Well, a person actually could… get pretty good history, just you know, if you only read the book for the history, it would be an interesting thing.

Seth Klein  

Yeah, I enjoyed the history part of it. And so, every chapter jumps back and forth in time. It’s each chapter is really kind of one-third history book and two-thirds present climate emergency… but tries to pull out these lessons. And so as a structure, you know, how did we mobilize public opinion, for the second world war, lessons for today? How did we forge unity across Confederation, lessons for today? How did we organize the economy, lessons for today? How do we mobilize labor, lessons for today? What did we do for returning soldiers? …is that a model for just transition for fossil fuel workers today? How did we pay for it then, lessons for today? What was the role of civil society and indigenous people and youth, then and now, and importantly, because it is a war story, one of the cautionary tales? So… I spend the bulk of the book lauding what we did, and the speed and scale of it, we also have to go eyes wide open into this, about the things that happened that caused a [unclear audio – potentially ‘schism’] and that we wouldn’t want to repeat. And so, the book deals with that, too.

Metta Spencer  

But you know, because I am American, also. And I still have dual citizenship. By the way, I don’t know, what do your parents,

Seth Klein  

My parents are dual citizens…  I used to have dual citizenship. But I gave up my US citizenship some time ago.

Metta Spencer  

But you know, I was brought up during the war, I remember forward, I remember Pearl Harbor very well. And I remember moving around and working in the… army camps, and so on. So World War Two is very vivid for me, but it’s the American experience, and not the Canadian experience. And I think both countries were amazing in the mobilization, the rapidity of this extraordinary capacity that we built in no time. But then I learned a few things about Mackenzie King and CD Howe, who was unknown to me. So, I appreciate having this kind of little history lesson, which I never got, because we didn’t go school here.

Seth Klein  

Right… the book is very much written for Canadians and rooted in our history, and the realities of Canadian Confederation and realities of indigenous rights and title here, and, and the realities of our current political context. But you’re right too that there are … similarities and important differences around the US and Canadian mobilization… what they have in common, I think… — because in the context of climate… so many people think like our politicians, just seem to be in denial about this, and nothing ever seems to happen. And so, I took some solace from the fact that in both Canada in the US, our leaders then too were not keen to do this. And were really blind to the threat before them until the 11th hour. And even more so in the US. So… people will often, when I would tell them, I was writing this book, they would say, Oh, well, back then everyone understood the threat to be clear and present. Well, no, actually, they didn’t, especially not if you were in North America and — Canada, interestingly, didn’t wait on the United States. So, Canada declared war two years before the United States, and for a long time was the only country in the Western Hemisphere to have declared war. The US did require an attack on its soil… before they did, I think… that we, the US would not have entered the war except for Pearl Harbor. Well… who’s to know in hindsight, it I do in the chapter on how we mobilize public opinion. I note that, that, you know, there’s a section in there about the role of the media and the US media, particularly the CBS news crew with Edward R. Murrow, certainly played an important role in shifting us opinion about entry into the war, even before Pearl Harbor. They are… largely credited with a 20% shift in public opinion about entering the war, even before Pearl Harbor. And that helped lay the ground — 

Metta Spencer  

no one news channel or broadcast. —

Seth Klein  

— CBS News. And you know, because back when you were a kid, everyone listened to the same news, right, and would gather around the radio and would hear those reports. And, in fact, throughout the book, I tried to make a point of these amazing people who, in the face of a crisis, decided to break the rules. And there’s an interesting story about Edward R. Murrow in that regard, which is that on the eve of the Nazi invasion of Poland… the bosses at CBS headquarters in New York had decided there had been too much bad news. And so, they cabled Edward R. Murrow who is the CBS man in London, and they say look, all the European bureau chiefs… you’re gonna have a big song and dance show… highlighting all of the popular music across Europe, you know, liven things up a little. And Murrow calls his counterpart at CBS office in Berlin, and he says, look, we’ve just been told by headquarters that this is what we’re going to do, and we’re not going to do it. And instead, they were there on the ground, covering the Nazi invasion of Poland, and then spent the next two years shifting American public opinion. But also, the US, you know, it’s I’m sorry to spend so much time on the US, but they were planning all through those two years. And so, when you think about the speed of the change, consider this. Pearl Harbor happened in December of ’41. And the US declared war in February of 42… two months later, the last civilian automobile, came off the assembly line in Detroit. And for the next five, four years, the production and sale of the private automobile in the US, the center of car culture, was effectively illegal. Now, those plants were all busy. And all those workers were busy doing something else. But that’s… what I’m trying to get out of the book… what does it look and feel like when we actually treat an emergency as an emergency?

Metta Spencer  

Well, already, you’ve given the answer. There was already work for them, there was something for them to do, you didn’t just lay off. That’s right. I think maybe that’s, that’s something we’d better think about it… it can’t be done in a haphazard way. You can’t just lay off people and hope somebody else thinks to hire them. 

Seth Klein  

That’s right, you got to plan, you got to plan. Now, the good news with the climate emergency is that there’s a great deal of work that’s going to need to be done. But it needs to be coordinated, needs to be planned. And we need to make sure that… it’s not all the same jobs in the same places, and so that people are supported through that transition. But again, let me come back to Canada to give a sense of why I think we can do this. In World War Two, Canada was a population of a little over 11 million people –of that base, over a million people enlisted. And more than that were directly involved in military production. And they all had to be trained up, and they all had to be reconverted back to peacetime afterwards. That is far, far more people than are currently employed in fossil fuel production in Canada today, with a population more than three times larger. So, we need to approach it with the same level of ambition, but actually, it’s not as big a job. Hmm.

Metta Spencer  

Okay, talk about the money too. By the way, did you major in economics or some because your work has always been, at least at the [CCPA] you’ve been dealing with economic issues more than anything else, right?

Seth Klein  

Yeah, well, my undergrad was in International Relations at your university, and so that was partly economics. And I did my MA in political economy. So… it was a major focus of my work at the CCPA.

Metta Spencer  

Good, because you can actually add and subtract, and I have a little trouble with that. But I do have some questions about cost, you know, if we are wanting to make this emergency… react to it as an emergency, which I we’re not going to have any argument about that… And I think that public opinion now is coming around to seeing that, Oh, my God, the forest fires are going to get us if nothing else, or the floods or whatever.

SK]  

I don’t know… I did some polling as part of my book research, which affirms what you’re saying, the terrain has shifted in the last two years in public opinion in Canada, and a majority of Canadians do see climate as an emergency. And I actually think are ahead of our politicians on this front.

Metta Spencer  

I tend to agree, I don’t know why that happens. I mean, we live in a democracy. And yet sometimes it sure doesn’t look like it. You know, the responsiveness of our government…  usually leaves much to be desired, I think somehow. But I also was talking to, by the way, last week, I did an interview with two people about Project Drawdown. So, I’m very much thinking about these days about climate change and about things like the various things that need to be done to get us there, to the point where we have this inflection point and start having less carbon in the air.

Seth Klein  

You were asking about cost?

Metta Spencer  

Yeah, the first thing I asked them, I knew the answer, but I asked them anyway, at to tell me how much this is going to cost if we actually do this stupendous effort. Now, let me ask you.

SK]  

Well, I have a figure that I proposed in the book, Nicholas Stern has said that what we need to spend is something on the order of 2% of GDP, specifically on climate mitigation measures and infrastructure. I think we should be spending more than that, because I actually think we should be embracing something like the Green New Deal for Canada. And that’s not just climate infrastructure, it’s also the social infrastructure. It’s also the… childcare and the housing that tackle inequality. So, let’s double that. Let’s say it was 4% of GDP. In the Canadian context, that’s about $100 billion a year. And we can absolutely do that for a number of years. Interestingly, in it, all of this pales, again, in comparison to what we had to do in the Second World War. In the Second World War, Canada’s GDP doubled out of… that spending, and Canada’s debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of the Second World War was 108%. So… that remains an historic high, and yet it… presaged this 30-year period of record economic performance. So let me compare it to COVID. Right. So, in response to COVID, we are seeing… the government acting like it’s an emergency. And what happens in an emergency is you spend what you have to spend — CD Howe famously said in World War Two, when pressed about the spending, if we lose, nothing will matter. And so the government is spending what they need to spend… the federal deficit this year is going to be over $300 billion, the debt-to-GDP ratio is going to increase about 15%, from about 35% to 50%. But that’s still half what it was at the end of the Second World War. But the other thing that’s happening now, in response to COVID, which we haven’t seen since the Second World War, the role of the Bank of Canada: the Bank of Canada has been buying up $5 billion in government securities a week, since the start of the pandemic. And their holdings of Canadian government debt have increased in just the last few months from about 15% of the total to almost 35% of the total.

Metta Spencer  

Alright, so don’t leave here. I hear you. But I really don’t know what that means. Why would they what it means is we’re

Seth Klein  

well, what it means is that the Bank of Canada is effectively creating money hand over fist, and that all of this government deficit spending, we’re seeing in response to COVID is effectively us borrowing from ourselves — the Bank of Canada is our own crown Corporation, which will mean inflation. Well, so the risk of it, of creating money in that way is that it would produce inflation, or that it would collapse.

Metta Spencer  

What I’d heard, that’s almost the definition of how you get inflation.

Seth Klein  

Yes… except that no economist right now believes inflation is a threat. Because… the other parts of the economy are battered so badly. It only becomes a risk of inflation, if the creation of money exceeds the capacity of the economy. But there’s so much slack in the economy right now, because everyone’s been so battered by COVID, that there’s no risk at all, the only other risk would be that your currency becomes devalued… but the good news is because everyone’s in the same boat, that’s not happening either. So … they’re able to issue bonds and securities at incredibly low interest rates that we haven’t seen since the Second World War. All of which means there’s actually zero reason not to be spending like gangbusters right now. And I would say the good news, actually, is that as we turn our attention to COVID recovery, I think there’s actually fairly wide agreement across the political spectrum and among economists, that the recovery is going to have to be state-led for the simple reason that the private sector is going to be in no position to do so. They’ve been too whacked. And the only real debate is going to be what form will that government investment take? Will it be investment to rebuild or restore the old, or will it be to catapult us into the new? That’s really the only debate.

Metta Spencer  

Well, let me move back and answer the question that I left dangling what they said about, you know what Drawdown? And his answer was, it won’t cost a cent, we’ll make money from it.

Seth Klein  

Well, these private sector —

Metta Spencer  

He… acknowledges, of course, that there’s money upfront, but that the long-term effect of all of these 100 interventions, or almost all of them, I think there are one or two exceptions, refrigeration being one. But almost all of the things that can be done… to solve the drawdown situation will actually save us money in the long run. And… they’ve got numbers, you know, for what it’s worth… I can’t calculate with them. But they do … make an effort to estimate how much the cost will be, and what the long-term effects will be.

Seth Klein  

So it depends…  there’s truth to parts of this. But I also think that we shouldn’t try to, you know, sell a false bill of goods to people, it is going to cost up front, we are going to have to spend, and our governments are going to have to spend, to expedite the transition, just as they did in the Second World War. Am I worried about that? No, I’m not worried about that at all. Now, it’s also true that a bunch of the spending has to be at the private level… whether it’s businesses or households spending themselves, to change how to electrify everything, basically. And it is true that some of that actually saves you money down the road. And so you know, I’ll give you personal… examples. I don’t drive a fossil fuel car anymore. I have an electric car, an electric bike. And I’ve gotten all the natural gas out of my house and replaced it with electric heat pumps. And with solar panels. Now the solar panels were pricey upfront, but to your point, they will save me money over time. They’ll pay for themselves three times over in reduced electricity costs. The switch off of natural gas to the electric heat pumps, is not going to save me money. Because electricity is pretty cheap relative to natural gas, and it was expensive to get it done. The car costs money upfront, but it definitely saves money over time, and savings from having to buy gas and maintenance. So, are there savings… over time? Yes. — The bigger picture at a societal level, the argument I’m trying to make in the book, is that it’s a better life. You know, when… we build communities where you don’t even need cars, because everything that you need is closer by and… you save on insurance and all of those things. When… your health is better, when you’re eating better. The savings to the healthcare system are better. And… it’s a good life. But I don’t want to be an ingenue about the fact that we do require billions of dollars up-front investment. And where I get a little worried about, you know, some there’s definitely a school within the climate movement that basically says it’s a money-making opportunity, and the private sector is going to lead us out of this. And I disagree with that strongly… this is going to have to be state-led. And again, that was the key lesson out of the Second World War, the private sector had a big role to play in military production in the Second World War. But what it wasn’t allowed to do is to determine the allocation of scarce resources, because we don’t do that in an emergency. CD Howe, who you mentioned off the top who was no lefty… I mean, he was on the right wing of the Liberal Party. But he created 28 crown corporations to get the job done. He was carefully controlling and coordinating all the necessary supply chains to… prioritize military production,

Metta Spencer  

I noticed that… you recommend the creation of at least one crown Corporation in each sector. Explain what you would mean by that. And… how many sectors are there. And what would these crown corporations do for us? Why do we need?

Seth Klein  

Well, so let’s go back to what CD Howe did… a private sector guy. He’s happy to give contracts to his private sector friends, but he’s an engineer in a hurry, and he’s seized with the emergency of the Second World War. And so anytime the private sector couldn’t quickly do what he needed done, he created another crown corporation. But… also remember there was nothing in the way of military production to speak of in Canada before the Second World War. And so, he’s letting all these contracts out to the private sector and nobody actually knows what it costs. Now, the risk when no one knows what it costs, is that these private sector contractors are going to bilk you. So, what does he do? He creates a crown basis. In each major defense sector, in airplanes and ships… in arms production, in vehicles, so that he has a public sector comparator and knows what it actually costs. And you know, that was the same logic behind the government’s creation of Petro Canada… in the 70s, you want to have a public competitor to kind of keep an eye on these things. And make sure some of the returns go to the public. So, when I looked at… how it was done in the Second World War, I kind of went through this exercise of saying, okay, by the same logic, what would those new- generation crown corporations be today. And I think we should do what CD Howe did, we should first of all take an inventory of everything we’re going to need to decarbonize our society, how many electric buses, how many electric heat pumps, how many solar arrays, how many wind farms, and then you do a survey of what production capacity exists. And then you figure out how to fill the gap. And… often that will, that should take the form of a crown Corporation — to maximize the benefit. I’ll give you another personal example. I mentioned before that we just went through the process my wife and I have of getting the natural gas out of our house and getting electric heat pumps. Now it was expensive. And it was, frankly, more expensive than it should have been. I had lots of contractors in the house giving me prices and this kind of thing. And you kind of feel the same way you do, every time you try to take a car to a mechanic and you never know what you can believe. So, what-if, and it’s all expensive, because it’s all important. So what if we had a crown Corporation, that was mass producing HFC-free electric heat pumps in Canada, get the profit margin out, get the economies of scale, have an army of installers who go to your house and tell you how to do it, where you can have confidence that nobody’s trying to pull the wool over your eyes, you could shave 1000s of dollars off the cost of making this switch, at a household level?

Metta Spencer  

It’s gonna be hard to sell.

Seth Klein  

You think?

Metta Spencer  

Well, in the capitalist society,

Seth Klein  

Yeah. Well… it’s interesting, you should say that… one of the barriers to change, I think we face… (I spend a section of the book talking about it) is the legacy of neoliberalism that has sapped our imagination and our ambition. And so, when you think well, why isn’t the government spending what it needs to spend? Why aren’t they investing? Why is it that even NDP governments in Alberta until recently, and here in British Columbia where I am, aren’t creating new crown corporations like they used to, to tackle this emergency? And it’s because, you know, neoliberalism is hard. And… it’s there, like a shadow over all across the political spectrum, telling these governments that the only thing they can do is incentivize change. But here’s the point about an emergency, we’ve all just experienced it with the pandemic, in an emergency, you’re liberated, you spend what you have to spend, you create whole new institutions like the CERB. And that’s what we need to do for climate.

Metta Spencer  

But look, in terms of the downfall of neoliberalism, I’m going to predict… I think there are really… two issues that maybe you need to speak to, because it’s becoming conscious in the in the general public, population. One is that corporations are not exactly democratic. Not exactly accountable to anybody, and you know, pretty, pretty too big for their britches. So we have to do something to tame corporations. And I think more and more people are aware of that as a real problem, which they wouldn’t have been 15 years ago. And the other is the question, which I don’t think you’ve addressed yet. Is all of this going to, or is the progress of technology and automation that, kill the jobs that already exist? And what do we need to do to create jobs or at least to create the income that jobs have? There’s… the COVID experience and the government payout for helping unemployed people, or people in feeling the pinch, has demonstrated that there can be there can be something like a universal basic income. And that I think is going to happen. I just predicted something like that will happen. It makes sense. So we have you know what that leaves you with? What do you do about corporations anyway? Regardless of whether it’s an emergency or not, we’ve got a threat to democracy on a lot of fronts. Not just that, but one of them is corporations.

Seth Klein  

Right, we got to do the solution. Well, and it’s interesting… just today, actually, my old friends at the CCPA published a little report that the 20 wealthiest Canadians have seen a jump in their wealth since the beginning of the pandemic, of $37 billion dollars. So, inequality is a theme that runs through all of this, and it is a barrier to mobilization as well as a threat to our democracy. And so, this… is, again, one of the areas where the more I started to learn about that World War II history, the more fascinating I found it. So, let’s go back even further in history. In… the First World War, much like in this pandemic, there had been rampant and grotesque profiteering. And that profiteering had undermined social solidarity and had undermined recruitment efforts in the First World War, and it had led to the government having to bring in conscription. Because what did it mean, to have some people volunteering their lives, while other people are making a killing? Mackenzie King was acutely aware of all of this at the beginning of the Second World War. He had lived through it, he had been in Laurier’s cabinet, he had seen how the conscription crisis had torn apart the country and his party. And so one of his principal political objectives… at the outset of the Second World War, was to avoid mandatory military conscription. So, he has this formidable challenge, then, how do you get hundreds of 1000s of people to voluntarily offer up their lives. And you need social solidarity for that, and he knew it. So, he starts to bring in these incredible measures to tackle inequality. And to prevent profiteering, the corporate tax rate in World War Two went from 18 to 40%. They brought in an excess-profits tax, that was extraordinary. You know what, this is how they did it, they went back to the four years before World War Two. And for every industry, they looked at the profits in those four years, still Depression years, right, they averaged it out. And they said to every business big and small in the land, that’s your annual limit until the end of the war. Really, it was meaning, not only did the corporate income tax rate go from 18, to 40% — but once you hit that average from before the war, your marginal tax rate was 100%. And businessmen at the time, you know, gave speeches to their colleagues about why they had to suck it up and accept this, because this is what it means to confront an emergency. And then on the flip side, World War Two also saw even though we were dealing with all of the spending needs of military production, and all these other things, …. shades of a Green New Deal, they also brought in the first major income transfer programs in Canadian history, unemployment insurance comes in, in 1940. The family allowance comes in, in 1944. The Marsh report, which is really… the report, that is the architecture of the whole postwar Canadian social welfare state is written during the Second World War. And it becomes part of a promise that the King government has to make frankly, or they’re going to lose an election to the CCF… to all of these people who they’re asking to enlist and all of these soldiers overseas, we promise that you will return to a different country than the one that you left. That’s how you mobilize people. So I think we need to do that, again, as part of this, and that means tackling inequality, it means we need excess-profits taxes.

Metta Spencer  

Again, the Green New Deal.

Seth Klein  

… something like a Green New Deal. And by the way, in the opinion poll I referenced before you see the power of this. So not only in the polling I did with Abacus research, do you find very high levels of support for bold climate action in Canada? But when you ask people additionally — well, would you become more or less supportive, if we increased transfers to low-income households? If we offered a good-jobs guarantee to fossil-fuel workers, if we increase taxes on the wealthy and corporations — support for that bold climate action doesn’t go down, it goes through the roof.

Metta Spencer  

Well, my friend, explain Donald Trump to me then,

you know, well,

Metta Spencer  

I mean, my friend Airlie Hochschild… her book “Strangers in their Own Land” was the really the thing that that made me rethink everything I kind of assumed about political allegiance? I mean, yeah, she shows very obviously, she starts off with the point that the red states in the US are the states that need the most government support… and help and they are the most opposed to it. Yeah. And here you have a large proportion of the electorate deciding that they are voting for things that are absolutely diametrically opposed to their own interests. So this is why irrational and it’s based on nothing, but some sort of, you know, joining a, you know, you do you support this baseball club, or the other one,

Seth Klein  

You know… not completely irrational. This is, this is why I think the power, this is the power and importance of the Green New Deal. It’s why tackling the climate emergency has to be linked to inequality. And it speaks to the failure of the US Democratic party establishment. When you fail to link the need for these things to inequality, then you allow climate change, to be presented as an elitist project, which is exactly what Donald Trump did.

Metta Spencer  

yeah, but it’s worse than that. I mean, these are people who know that out in their backyard… people are dumping wastes that have killed the members of their own family, and they know that, that has died because of it. And if you say, don’t you want the EPA to come in and clean this up? They’ll say no. So, this is this has to be irrational, in any sense of the word.

Seth Klein  

Yeah. Well, if people are hurting, you know, I see these parallels, again, to this pre war period, right? We live in this moment, where things can go either way. And look at the 1930s and the economic despair across the world, then, the economic despair that gave birth, both to the New Deal and Roosevelt in the United States, and elected Hitler. Right, in the same way, that we live in a time that that holds up the promise of a Green New Deal, at the same time as it elects Donald Trump and Duterte and Bolsonaro, and all the rest of these guys, and Modi, and all of the rest of these people… they’re all speaking to the same anxiety. And this same feeling of alienation and rejection that so many people feel — one set of people are offering up scapegoats the other and animating our worst selves, and another set of people are trying to animate our best selves,

Metta Spencer  

I would have to say probably, the Democratic leaders are not completely crazy when they say we can’t try to promote Bernie and or the Green New Deal. We have to go with some moderate, like, Biden, and Biden, as you know, is trying to still win over the folks who voted for Trump.

Seth Klein  

I hope they’re right. I hope they’re right. But I I’m somebody who believes that Bernie could have won four years ago.

Metta Spencer  

I know that he could I’m sure that he could have won against Hillary.

Seth Klein  

I mean, they’re never against Trump. And Trump isn’t the point. If he hadn’t won. If he had won, then

Metta Spencer  

he could have beaten Trump.

Seth Klein  

But that’s the point. Because

Metta Spencer  

now I don’t know. I mean, maybe they’re right in choosing Biden now, rather than —

Seth Klein  

What’s done is done. And I hope you’re right. But… that’s sort of ancient history now four years ago, but partly what made Hillary Clinton an awful candidate, is that the things that were said about her and the elitism and the fact that the Democratic Party didn’t give a hoot about ordinary people, were true… But if it had been Trump and Bernie Sanders, who both were speaking to that feeling of alienation and inequality and corporate power, people could have voted for the real deal.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah. Okay, we’re gonna find out some things. And I don’t know, the other question is whether the pandemic is going to change public opinion in any radical way. And I don’t see it happening yet. Oh, well,

Seth Klein  

This is where, you know, just to bring it back to my book… the timing of all of this has been so weird, Metta. I wrote my book before the pandemic; I had shipped my book off a final copy… three days before the pandemic. And the whole premise of my book was that we needed this historic reminder of how quickly we’re capable of moving when we see crises as the emergency as they are. And then the pandemic hit, and now we’re all living through that reminder in real time, we’re all experiencing it. And it’s been brutal for a lot of people. But I actually think in some ways and it has put… the climate emergency for now, at least off the front burner, I did quickly write a new epilogue to the book about COVID and all the parallels between the climate emergency and the pandemic and the war. And I think there are many. But I think in some ways we can, we will come out of the pandemic, well placed for the fact, that we all come out with a renewed appreciation for the importance of the role of government, we have a level of social solidarity and national unity that we haven’t had in a generation, we see the connections between inequality and these emergencies… and in terms of that government spending and the role of the Bank of Canada that I was talking about before the cat’s out of the bag… now, what we’ve been shown is what was possible all along, f the government had chosen to see these things as emergencies,

Metta Spencer  

well, that people say that about the basic income idea to, guaranteed annual income. But now we see that could have done that, you know, 10 years ago. And I don’t know whether that, but I haven’t seen any poll results showing remarkable changes now. It’s been six months, we’ve had this pandemic, so far. And I don’t know of any dramatic changes in public opinion. I do know that there’s, I’m really happy about the fact that people are actually, I think, instead of a less social interaction, I think there’s more social interaction. Now,

Seth Klein  

I know mic’s better than I ever did.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah, and zoom, I spend two, three hours a day on Zoom. And I’m not alone, you know. So, and, and I think this kind of conversation going on, is really a very important thing. I think too many people until recently have rushed out into the streets. It’s easy, you know, to mobilize people with Twitter or something, I say, come to such as a corner at such and such a time, and people will come, but they don’t know each other. And they don’t get acquainted, really, and they don’t build a movement that way. And the only way you can build a movement is by talking to each other, a long time together. And with these webinars, I think it’s happening. Yeah.

Seth Klein  

Some of that’s happening that way. And, you know, as we’ve seen, with this whole explosion of the Black Lives Matter stuff in the middle of the pandemic, sometimes when these crises intersect, people get out of the house anyway.

Metta Spencer  

I don’t see quite I mean, there’s no particular reason for me to think that the Black Lives Matter movement would have surged exactly when COVID did. 

Seth Klein  

Oh, no, I don’t mean that. I just mean that… when a crisis like that comes to the fore, even though we were all told to stop, shelter at home. 1000s of people came out of their homes to protest anyway. And have that face-to-face contact,

Metta Spencer  

and they can’t, so far, they don’t seem to have caused any upsurge. I think it’s because it was all out of doors.

Seth Klein  

It was outside. And I mean, I went to a couple of these protests and people wore masks, and they were pretty good.

Metta Spencer  

Mm hmm. Tell me what you think is going to happen by about automation? Because I don’t think you’ve really, I don’t remember seeing a lot of discussion about it in your book, that, you know, there’s a real discussion among my friends about whether or not to believe that we’re going to have a huge loss in jobs, or whether as with other changes in technology, and in throughout the period, period of industrialization, there will be new jobs that emerge to fill a teacup, for where the old ones left off. And I wonder what, what you think, are we going to have to find, make work or give people handouts? Or at, which I’m not necessarily opposed to at all. But or…? Do you think that that the economy will actually create conventional sense occupations?

Seth Klein  

I’m, I don’t pretend to be expert in this area. But I would say this is not an area that I’m hugely worried about, at least not for the next 30 years. Because actually converting our economies and societies for what we need to do, to get off fossil fuels is such a big job. But it’s going to involve a lot of work. I actually think our larger problem, once we get serious about a Green New Deal, our larger problem will be a labor shortage. And at least for a couple of decades. And then the other part of the Green New Deal is to say it isn’t just about electrifying everything and you know, switching technologies. It’s also about the caring economy, and valuing the things we’ve come to value in this pandemic, the care for children, the care for the elderly, all of these forms of work that we traditionally leave to women… immigrant women, we pay crap… but interestingly produce almost no carbon, no GHGs in the service economy that those operate in. And they are by definition, jobs that that that are done by humans. That’s how we care for each other.

Metta Spencer  

Okay, and you put a lot of emphasis out really, it’s important, the question of denial, and how we get people psyched up for this challenge. That’s something that I, I spend a lot of time trying to do. But I wouldn’t say I’m a roaring success in changing public opinion. And I just don’t really think we have a handle on that yet. This is where we need real leadership from our governments. The thing about World War Two is that you have to have a clear and consistent message. Whereas what we’re experiencing with climate is a lot of very confusing message.

Seth Klein  

You know, when Justin Trudeau passes a climate emergency motion in the House of Commons one day, and reapproved the Trans-Mountain pipeline expansion the very next day, that’s confusing to people. In fact, why do we even, you know, one of the points I make in the book, why do we allow advertising for fossil fuel cars and gas stations? We don’t for tobacco, because that’s confusing. What does it mean to tell people that it’s an emergency, and then they see these ads? And… overall, what our federal government and provincial governments have been saying to people, unlike what they said in World War Two, is you don’t have to choose, you don’t have to decide, we can tackle climate. And we can still double down and expand tar sands production and LNG in my province. And that’s not being straight with people. But it’s an attractive message, right? Because nobody wants to make hard choices. And so that perpetuates that sense of denial, and the mainstream media play right along with it. None of which is what happened in World War Two. In World War Two, we were much clearer about it. And the media was clear about… you want the media to be factual and science-based. But when you’re facing a global civilizational threat, the media should pick a damn side. And, and too often they don’t. And too often they look, I mentioned some a poll that I didn’t do, but someone else did in the book. Even though the majority of Canadians say they want bold climate action, only about half of Canadians understand that the principal source of climate change is the combustion of fossil fuels. The level of who knows… often they just go right to plastics or recycling… the the level of basic literacy is atrocious. But that’s on the government and our other public institutions. If that’s true, they have to fix it. Right. In World War Two. We saw maps every night on the news. And on the radio where you saw you saw the battle lines, you knew what the threat was. Every night we gathered around the radio in Canada, you are in the States and Canada, everyone gathered around radio every night to listen to Lorne Greene, before he became a Hollywood actor. You know, in Bonanza and Battlestar Galactica, Lorne Greene was the voice of the CBC. Right through the Second World War, that great deep voice, it was called the voice of doom. And every night, Canadians across the country got the latest update from him. Where is that? Right? That’s how you start to tackle that confusion and that denial.

Metta Spencer  

Okay, now, I have to say there were two, three things that if I were writing your book, I would have done differently. Okay. As you know, I’m much more oriented toward International, doing things that are naturally transnational. I’m very interested in organizing activists around the world and bringing people together. That’s why I have these town halls in these meetings, like you, you know, I interview people in India or Russia all the time, that sort of thing. So I think that I would love to see a future effort to link Canada much more into the world and look at Canadian policies, income, in… the context of global trends. Another thing that I’m I was, I wasn’t opposed to your title for the book a good war, because I think that’s great. But I have to say that neither you nor the Green New Deal people in general, make any major reference to the importance of demilitarization as a, as a component of the kinds of reforms that we have to do. I don’t think we can solve climate change without cutting back on our military. And I think that not only for the reason that that’s where all our money is going. But… it’s a stupid way to waste money. But also, because military production and the maintenance of a military force, it creates a lot of greenhouse gas.

Seth Klein  

Yeah, absolutely do it.

Metta Spencer  

So, I wish that we could hook up, hook your concerns up to some other concerns that I think… form more of a system, I mean, with our Project Save The World, we look at six different global threats, because we think they’re all related. And then we can’t solve any one of them without addressing at least one or usually two or three of the others, war and weapons, militarism being one, global warming being the other biggie. And then we have things like famine, pandemics, radioactive contamination, and cyber-attacks. And all of those together require economic changes of the kind that we’ve just been talking about. So it’s this, our economic issues are not irrelevant, what whatsoever, but they are these things, I think, are causally linked. And we should address them as such. Because there’s the solutions have to be as a system to

Seth Klein  

Yeah, I mean, well, so maybe I should have spent more time than I did on all of those things. Although I do think I actually spent some time on almost all of them…   — having lauded the creation of these 28 crown corporations — I do talk in one. of my favorite chapters in the book… on indigenous leadership and the climate mobilization. And, and importantly, a number of those crown corporations left this terrible, poisonous legacy on indigenous territory in Sarnia, and (into your point about nuclear radiation for the DNA) people in the Northwest Territories who were poisoned, is part of the… uranium they extracted for the Manhattan Project. And so the book does talk about that. Look, I wrote the book for Canadians, and about how we mobilize our country. But I do speak to the fact that this obviously is a global endeavor. And we have to do it… knowing that millions of good people around the world are doing the same thing in their countries, I was trying to speak directly to this voice that a lot of Canadians have in their head, which is… we’re just a small country, a small population, what we do doesn’t matter. And I want to say, first of all, it does matter. We have the highest per- capita emissions in the world. And that’s not counting what we extract and export to other countries. And to guess what, that’s not what we did in the Second World War, we entered two years before the United States, and before anyone else in the Western Hemisphere, and we were only 11 million people then. And at the end of the war, nobody doubted or questioned the importance of our contribution. So, let’s just do this.

Metta Spencer  

I love that that notion that you know, because in fact, I think Canadians are a little bit parochial. We couldn’t really be the leaders in the world. But we should.

Seth Klein  

But I, but I do want to reinforce what you said before… why is it that this… federal government that claims to get climate, and yet still doubles down on pipelines and tar sands expansion and so on. And they literally basically say, Well, if we don’t do it, if we if someone else is going to do it. And so, they’re all you know, to put this in international relations terms, they’re all caught in this classic prisoner’s dilemma of nobody wanting to be the chump… and doing what should what needs to be done only to be a sucker and have somebody else occupy that space. So, I speak to that in the book. And I actually mention something in the book that I’m now actually working on, you’ll be happy to know. We’re on a little bit of contract work on the side, which is this new initiative for a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty. I don’t know if you’ve heard about this. You will be hearing more about it. It is modeled on the original nuclear non- proliferation treaty and is an international initiative. And it is trying to speak to the fact that the Paris agreement has a fatal omission, which is that nowhere in the Paris agreement does it mention fossil fuels, oil, gas or coal.

Metta Spencer  

That is the realize that

Seth Klein  

— that’s the result of years of successful lobbying from those industries. And so the Paris Agreement only speaks to the demand side, how do we lower demand, and it doesn’t speak at all to the production side. And so, this initiative is saying we need a new international treaty, a companion treaty to the Paris Agreement. That is about ramping down production in a cooperative way. That gets us out of its a path out of the prisoner’s dilemma, effectively wonderful. And so, people can look, look up fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty online, you can find the web page. And I do also in the book, speak to the fact that one of the key lessons of the Second World War is that Canada is not an island. And we don’t do this alone. And we also have to see these international connections, the biggest of which is as a wealthy well, to really, first of all, is a wealthy country. What does this mean in terms of financial and technology transfers to the poor countries that are hardest hit by climate change? And secondly, you know, when I spoke earlier about the cautionary tales from the Second World War, one of which is how Canada responded to refugees before, during and after World War Two. And it was abysmal, as, as anyone who’s looked at this knows, right, and so what does that mean is we now face down the issue of climate migration? And that will be a defining issue of the next 40-50 years. And will we react? Will we replicate that shameful history again? Or will we act honorably this time?

Metta Spencer  

Yeah, if I hadn’t even gone there. That’s a hard one. a hard one to predict. Yeah. And in I had not heard about this fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty. I love it. But I wonder how it connects with something I have heard about, which is a campaign against subsidies for fossil fuels. And I don’t know whether you link the two but I was told that $5 trillion a year is spent a globally on subsidies for fossil fuels. That is, that is a place where we should publicize that number, you know, we should say this is how much we’re actually paying to keep the damn thing going.

Seth Klein  

Yeah, well, I do speak to that issue in the book. And that is a key piece of it. I mean, like all things you grab hold of this thing wherever you can. So, one piece of it is divestment. And other piece of it is getting rid of subsidies. I mean, whatever it takes to make these companies pay the full cost of the garbage they’re producing and, and make it on economic.

Metta Spencer  

You’re, doing well, my friend, I’m, I’m very, very happy about how you’ve spent your life so far. So, congratulations on your book.

Thanks. Oh, so I shouldn’t say people can go to my website, it’s just sethklein.ca. And you can order the book or just call your local bookstore

Metta Spencer  

In there, says…

Seth Klein

No, just sethklein.ca. And, you know, I think the book endeavors to be realistic about how serious this crisis is. But I also think it’s one of the more hopeful books on the subject. You will read.

Metta Spencer  

It’s one of the most fun to read I’ll tell you I mean, not Ha-ha, fun, but it entertaining in that you find things that you haven’t long before. The lovely, wonderful talking to you. Good. Let’s stay in touch. All right, no, no more 25 years in between. Thanks so much, Seth. Oh, good wishes. Bye bye.

Adam Wynne (Intro/Outro)  

This conversation is one of the weekly series talks about saving the world produced by peace magazine, and project save the world. Please visit our website at to save the world.ca where you can sign the platform for survival. A list of 25 public policy proposals that if enacted, would greatly reduce the risk of six global threats to humankind. Come back next week for another discussion of a serious global issue.

T236. Carbon Capture and Storage

T236. Carbon Capture and Storage

 

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number: 236
Panelists: Michael Barnard
Host: Metta Spencer

Date Aired:  29 April 2021
Date Transcribed and Verified: 15 May 2021
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits: David 

Metta Spencer  

Hi, I’m Metta Spencer. Today we’re going to go to Vancouver. Because I’ve just made a new friend who’s in Vancouver, it’s Michael Barnard. He is a man of many parts. He obviously knows his way around technology, all kinds of technology, kind of a renaissance man of technology. And in fact, he’s so sophisticated that I wouldn’t dare try to introduce him and say what he does, because I would be sure to mess it up. So good morning, Michael. And would you be so good as to tell us a little bit about yourself. So, you can sort of do a self-introduction, if you don’t mind? What is this thing in the background?

Michael Barnard  

Thank you very much for having me, Metta, I’m very pleased to be here. The thing in the background is actually a project I’m working on. With my firm distance.com, distance technologies and a local architecture practice, human studio architecture and urban design, focused on increasing sociability in the built environment. That’s a five-storey office building, or five-storey residential building with a courtyard, what we’re doing is using 3D agents in a virtual environment, to run around the building and encounter one another and determine which designs of the building are more sociable versus less sociable. And, and that’s in line with my focus on public health. And, you know, social good projects, you know, which is the reason I’m here today. The public health stuff, I mean, we’re doing in the middle of COVID, which Metta, you know, in our chatted about an original conversation week or two ago. But COVID is actually being managed in Canada by the Panorama public health surveillance project, something built in British Columbia, I had the privilege of working on for 18 months.

Metta Spencer  

These days, I see little green lines, zigzagging around this building. Is this kind of graph of where people move inside the building complex?

Michael Barnard  

Well, no, that’s two agents in space, who can see one another, the green line is the laser between their eyes.

Metta Spencer  

And then why are they trying to see each other?

Michael Barnard  

Well, just because when you walk out of your building, you see your neighbor, you say, Oh, you start learning to recognize them, you’ll say hi. And then eventually you’ll establish familiarity with your neighbors. And at a certain point, you say, Well, you know, we haven’t seen Fred for a while, I wonder if he’s okay. So, there’s just a creation of community, creation of social environment. But that’s not what we’re here to talk about today. Today, we’re here to talk about another big part of my brain, not technology, not public health, but something that has strong implications for both technology and public health, and that’s climate change solutions.

Metta Spencer  

Do you mean by a man of, a Renaissance man, an English major, who’s also doing climate change?

Michael Barnard  

whether certain solutions will scale or not, and whether they’ll be a substantive part of our solution set. But the point there is more that I spend time thinking about how people internalize behavior. And I’ve spent time looking at behavioral psychology, and behavioral economics to determine what things will actually work in terms of being acceptable to people and will actually get past that barrier of human nature. And so,

Metta Spencer  

boy, it sounds like you are dealing with some of the things that absolutely keep me awake at night. And I mean, literally, I spent a lot of time in bed, thinking about how we’re going to break through some of the human problems that I see are wrecking democracy, frankly, making it impossible to make good political decisions. … climate change is the most obvious example. Because COVID as well, you know, people who … don’t want to wear masks, or that’s what we came to talk about. So, we know. Today we’re going to talk about carbon capture. that’s big enough topic.

Michael Barnard  

Let’s talk carbon capture because I’ll share, a I’ve got a couple of slides here. One of the things I am you know; carbon capture is touted as one of the big solutions for climate change. Now, this is a map of all the largest carbon capture sites in the world.

Metta Spencer  

Hold on. Right off the bat. I think we have to be careful about when we use the word “carbon capture and sequestration” because there’s there are things that trees do and then there’s what I guess is generally called DAC “direct air capture” from the from the air with machinery,

Michael Barnard  

and that’s multiple types. Yeah… these are not direct air capture. I’ve spoken to the leading people in direct air capture globally, but these are specifically… So, there’s … three levels to this, the first level is at source. So, emissions from smokestacks and coal plants and stuff like that. Or emissions from normal oil and gas extraction processes. That’s what these are these are “at source capture and sequestration” facilities —

Metta Spencer  

is that, are you saying those little blue dots are the only ones in the world or these are just happened to be the big ones

Michael Barnard  

— as of 2019, these are all of the ones that were sequestering, above a million tonnes a year, which sounds like a lot. I’ll get into the context for that in a minute. The second type is “direct air capture”, which I’ll talk briefly about. The third type is “biological pathways”. My thesis is very simple. mechanical and chemical, direct carbon capture doesn’t work, it won’t scale. There’s no value proposition for it. The scale of the problem is vastly above the scale of the ability of those technologies to scale —

Metta Spencer  

So you’re saying direct air capture and smokestack capture kind of thing. Neither of them can be scaled.

Michael Barnard  

Nope. And it’s pretty simple to explain why. But you know, the, the one that will scale is biological mechanisms. And I’ll talk more about the biological mechanisms. We’re going to start by being dismissive of the mechanical and Industrial processes. So, these are the sites. I’ve looked at all of them, I’ve assessed multiple technologies… for sequestering carbon. I’ve done a case study on carbon engineering, which is the big Canadian “direct air capture” solution… spoken directly to David Keith, he was unhappy with my coverage of his approach. I spoke to Graciela Chichilnisky and Peter Eisenberger, who were behind the Global Thermostat “direct air capture” thing a decade ago.

Metta Spencer  

But there’s one there’s something in Switzerland, Climeworks.com

Michael Barnard  

I haven’t… talked to any of the Climeworks people, but I’ve assessed their technology haven’t published on it. The problem is multiple fold. So, let’s just start with the scale of the problem. Okay. We’re over 1000 billion tonnes of excess CO2 in the atmosphere that we’ve put there. And we are good at putting in 30 to 40 billion tonnes a year… billions with a B, so 30 to 40 billion tonnes a year. The biggest facility in the year captures a million tons — a year. That’s

Metta Spencer  

okay, what a billion is… a billion is 1000 million,

Michael Barnard  

right? Yep.

Metta Spencer  

Okay. And so, we’re talking about totally different scale of magnitude.

Michael Barnard  

It is a scale of magnitude problem. Exxon claims to have the most sophisticated and the best track record for carbon capture sequestration industry. And they do but that, so that’s problem one — is just these facilities just are tiny compared to the scale of the problem. The second problem is that… all of these dots, 90% of them are used for enhanced oil recovery. Enhanced oil recovery means you pump CO2 down into a tapped-out oil well, and the chemical properties of CO2 mix with the oil and loosen it up, they basically turn tar into liquid, and they pressurize it so then it can be pumped out the other end. For every tonne of CO2 you pump underground in enhanced oil recovery, you get a quarter of a ton, a ton of new petroleum. And a ton of new petroleum turns into three tons of CO2.

Metta Spencer  

So, for one ton of co2, you get three tons of co2 at the other end. Hey, go.

Michael Barnard  

And that’s not the end of the shell game. Let’s take let’s take Exxon’s… the facility that they really love to talk about… the Shute Creek processing facility in the Permian Basin in United States. It’s one of the ones over here.

Metta Spencer 

Yeah,

Michael Barnard  

The Shute Creek facility… pumps up natural gas that has too much CO2 mixed in with it to be saleable. It separates the CO2 from the natural gas. It sells the natural gas. It pumps the CO2 over to the tapped-out oil well and pumps it back underground. So, it … It puts it back underground and gets more oil. And it gets more oil than it pumped out.  So, there’s no net benefit at all from Exxon’s facility, it’s actually a shell game… they’re pumping CO2 out to put it down somewhere else to get more co2.

Metta Spencer  

Okay… already you know, me, I’m not very good at arithmetic. And grade four was about my, my, my level, but I think I can, I can figure that

Michael Barnard  

— one’s pretty easy to figure out. Another one, which is a great facility is the Sleipner facility over here on the North Sea. The Sleipner is… Odin’s horse or something like that, you know, but the Sleipner facility is run by Equinor, which is the Norwegian National Petroleum Company. It’s a natural gas facility in the North Sea, and they pump out natural gas. And once again, it has too much CO2 in it. So, they strip off the CO2, and they pump the CO2 back underground. And when they pump the CO2 back underground, they get a tax credit for carbon sequestration. And so, they’ve avoided about, by my calculation, about $1.7 billion US by taking CO2 from underground and pumping it back underground. So, yeah,

Metta Spencer  

now that right there, you just made the slam dunk case, for carbon pricing as the carbon fee or carbon tax, rather than a cap-and-trade kind of deal, right there —

Michael Barnard  

… there are different ways to sort out all of these types of things. But the reality is that all of these blue dots, 90% of them are just oil and gas companies creating more problems, rather than less. If we take the natural gas… from when the Sleipner plant puts CO2 underground, that natural gas goes on to be burned. So, the CO2 they extract, and then put back under ground is a 25th of the CO2 that’s created when the natural gas is burned. You know, so there is no net benefit… I call carbon capture a fig leaf for the fossil fuel industry.

Metta Spencer  

But they’re doing this they’re getting credit… like a cap-and-trade bookkeeping system, not because if they had, if somebody had to actually pay for every bit of greenhouse gas that was produced and emitted, then this couldn’t happen, right?

Michael Barnard  

— if they actually had to pay and they had to… add it to the price… the economics of oil and gas would be very problematic. If we think about the North America, oil sands that you and I contend with as Canadians as a concern. Let’s take carbon capture sequestration and use — there’s a global market of 230 million tons a year for all carbon capture, use and sequestration. So, 230 million tons a year,

Metta Spencer  

global market for? What do you mean by a global market for it?

Michael Barnard  

CO2 is a commodity, it’s like, you know, it’s like baking soda or oil or water. It’s something that gets purchased in bulk and used for various things…

Metta Spencer  

There’s so much more of it that that we, it’s amazing that anybody would pay to get it would have no problem is trying to get rid of it.

Michael Barnard  

I’m not gonna disagree, but there’s a $230 million market for it. People pay for its use enhanced oil recovery is 70 to 80 million tons of that global market. So right there, you’re sitting there. And remember, the scale of the problem is 1000s of billions of tonnes and we’re talking 230 million tonnes. Right. So the so people, people talk about carbon use, they’re talking about… 230 million and trying to make that two billions. There’s no use for all that CO2. But people do buy CO2, greenhouses use CO2 to enhance growth.

Metta Spencer  

So, factories, presumably —

Michael Barnard  

Soda pop companies use it. A lot of it’s used to create fertilizers… And fertilizers we need, but we don’t need billions of tons of fertilizer. So… if you think about the oil sands… I calculated the total emissions from extraction and processing of oil sands petroleum, the, you know, the thick crude that the Alberta produces. Alberto’s annual emissions alone — not for using the oil, not for burning, though — just for extracting and initial processing, are as much as the global use of all CO2 for all enhanced oil recovery. Just one province of one country already blows the budget for that. And so, this is the scale problem. If there’s the scale problem, and there’s the bait-and-switch problem, the fossil fuel companies are doing a lovely bait and switch, they get their social license to continue to extract oil. And they convince everybody that all we have to do… [is] capture it, and we can put it somewhere. But there is no place to put it that’s big enough, and there is no use of CO2 that big —

Metta Spencer  

Now, if they just pump it into an abandoned oil well, or you know, any other kind of mine underground, coal mine or something, and they can seal it. So, it isn’t going to get out. That’s pretty good burial, you know, enough holes in the ground from old wells, to be able to pump a lot of that stuff under there are no —

Michael Barnard  

not a chance, not 1000s of, billions of tons. Okay, that’s the scale of the problem. We don’t have room for it… there’s nothing mechanical that can deal with that. There is a solution, though. So, I do, as I said at the beginning, I do want to show you this chart that I created. So, one of the things I did in 2019, when I was looking at these sites, I did an assessment, saying how much had actually been captured. And the 45 million tonnes for the global carbon capture and storage market, from 1973 to 2019, includes the most generous calculation I could do for the enhanced oil recovery people. So, for the enhanced oil recovery, I asserted that they would get .25 tons of oil for a ton of CO2, which is the low end of the scale, the minimum end, and then that turns into .8 tonnes of CO2 when it’s extracted, so I’m giving them a 20% credit for enhanced oil recovery. In reality, as I said, it’s typically going to be two to three times the CO2. But I was trying to be generous, right? And being generous. They’ve captured 45 million tonnes of CO2 since 1972. Remember, the scale is billions and 1000s of billions of tonnes, they’ve captured 45. Now, what I also said was, huh, what else could we have done with that same capital expenditure — not the operating costs, not the salaries, just the money spent to build the facilities. And I applied that in each… year that money had been spent to build one of these carbon capture plants. I said, let’s build the amount of wind energy we could have built in that year, with the capability of wind energy in that year, because every megawatt hour of wind energy or solar energy avoids a megawatt hour of coal or gas. And so, you can say, I’ve got a megawatt hour of wind, energy, electricity from wind, I’ve avoided a megawatt hour of coal and gas, and that’s an average of about 750 kilograms of CO2. From those sources, it’s about a tonne of CO2 from a megawatt hour of coal… about 500 kilograms of CO2 from a megawatt hour of gas. And so, you can average those out, right. So, what I did that,

Metta Spencer  

comparing this gas and coal, say it again.

Michael Barnard  

So, coal is a lot more; carbon gas has some hydrogen in it. So, the coal when it burns produces more CO2 than the gas does. about twice as much. So, you get about a tonne of CO2 from a megawatt hour of coal, that’s how much it produces. And you get about a half a tonne of CO2 when you produce a megawatt hour from gas generation,

Metta Spencer  

Megawatt hour is you’re talking like a measure of electricity production.

Michael Barnard  

Yep. Now you’ve got a home and you… you’ve got a condo. But if you had a detached home, the average Canadian gets about 10.7 megawatt hours of electricity they use every year for their home for their homes. Right. So that’s your carbon data. If you got 10.7 megawatt hours, and you’re in Alberta, you know where the total CO2 per kilowatt hour is 790 kilograms per megawatt hour. You’re creating like eight tons of CO2 just from your electricity in Alberta. And then… much lower in BC and Quebec and Manitoba and Ontario,

Metta Spencer  

but my apartment is producing about that much?

Michael Barnard  

Your apartment, probably not because you’re in a condo in in Toronto, you’re probably in the… six megawatt hours and you’re on the Ontario grid. So, the entire grid is about — because of nuclear and the wind energy that hasn’t been shut down by the Ford administration, and the solar that’s in there that hasn’t been shut down by the Ford administration — it’s actually a pretty reasonable CO2 per kilowatt hour. It’s like 200 kilograms for a megawatt hour. So… your carbon footprint for electricity, you’re probably about 1.2 tonnes a year, just for your electricity… it’s better than Alberta. Okay, now, and there’s a couple of reasons for that, you’re in a condo, so you’re sharing heating and cooling with your neighbors. Right. And so that’s an energy efficiency matter. And secondarily, you have a smaller space. So that’s an efficiency matter. And third, you’re on a grid that’s not as dirty as Alberta’s. But point of that is: we can actually make a comparison; we can say we know that every megawatt hour we produce with wind or solar displaces fossil fuel generation. Yeah. Right. And so, I made some —

Metta Spencer  

bad that way. But yeah, you can put those on the same graph. If I did

Michael Barnard  

Yeah, here’s the graph. So, this one basically says, given the most generous reading of the enhanced oil recovery, and given the most conservative capacity factors and ability and costs for wind energy, we could, we would have avoided about three times as much CO2 emissions just by building wind energy, instead of all the carbon capture that’s being built globally, everywhere in the world.

Metta Spencer  

Okay, now, I’m trying to imagine what my friend, I have a friend who’s enthusiastic about the idea of carbon capture, not direct air capture, but carbon capture. She thinks that… we should put more into it. Now, the question I’ve imagined she would ask is… How difficult is it to create such facilities for carbon capture at source, as compared to the wind? Building a wind turbine, for example? I mean, if it’s a whole lot easier to put some sort of little gadget on a smokestack, then it might be worth doing anyway, even while we’re trying to switch over to wind energy, because, as they say, inevitably we’ll take a long time to make that transition over to solar and wind. And now, I don’t know …  I’m imagining what she might say. But is that the kind of argument that you would have to answer.

Michael Barnard  

Sure, and I’ll answer it very clearly. So, in Saskatchewan, we have the Boundary Dam project. That’s a coal plant that had carbon capture and sequestration bolted onto it. And the carbon that was captured was pumped underground for enhanced oil recovery in Saskatchewan. The idea was the enhanced oil recovery revenue was going to pay for the carbon capture. The problem is, there were two problems. One is it ran at 40% of projected efficiency for a year and a half and nobody noticed. Second, it cost a lot more than they expected. So now, every megawatt hour of electricity has a… wholesale cost of $140 per megawatt hour. Now I’ll turn that into kilowatt hours, because you pay about 12 cents per kilowatt hour in Ontario, well, in Saskatchewan, the wholesale but that’s your retail cost with all the other adders. The wholesale cost of electricity for this Boundary Dam facility was above Ontario’s retail cost and close to Saskatchewan retail cost, it was just too expensive to operate. So, while they’re keeping it running, the Saskatchewan Power Utility, the premier said they’ll never build another one and they’re not expanding carbon capture in Saskatchewan. So that’s a Canadian example, now give you the Petra Nova example down in southern United States. There’s a big coal generation facility, they have, I think, 12 boilers on the facility, and they bolted on carbon capture to one of them. The idea being that they would, you know, test this out. So, this is only one boiler out of 12. So, they’re already down at 8%. But then they’re only capturing about 30% of the CO2 that was coming out of the boiler. And this is actually fairly standard efficiency. For at-flue capture, it’s easy to capture 30% of it. It gets… increasingly expensive to capture 100%. Right. And so that place, they spent billions of dollars, and it failed, they’ve actually removed the Carbon [capture], they actually had to set up… a natural gas plant to create the energy to capture CO2 from the coal plant. Because capturing and running a carbon-capture process takes energy. The big part, which I learned a decade ago, is that every CO2 capture process uses a chemical or sorbent-based technology, which requires a bunch of heat, then, to separate the co2 from the thing you’ve captured it with. And that heat has to come from energy. And typically, that comes from natural gas. And so, you kind of sit there and you look at this and go, so we’re gonna spend a lot… we talked about David Keith and Carbon Engineering, their initial process as defined and as explored, uses natural gas to power the process, they create a half ton of CO2 from the natural gas for every tonne of CO2 they capture from the air. And so, then they actually have in their design process, they have three different carbon-capture technologies, they have one for the air, and then two for the natural gas emissions. It’s, once again…  more and more and more to try and get to that 100%, they have to do two separate carbon-capture processes on the seat and the gas emissions, to capture all the CO2 to get up to that, close to 100%. And so that’s the problem. We have a scale problem and the carbon capture doesn’t get anywhere near the scale. We have an enhanced oil recovery problem in that it’s used to create more oil and hence more CO2. And we have a shell-game problem in that most of the stuff that people are claiming value from the CO2 was already sequestered underground, they pulled it up and put it down somewhere else. And then we get to the air carbon capture problem. The air carbon capture problem is Houston Astrodome. It takes one point you know how big the Houston Astrodome is, right? It’s one of the biggest enclosed spaces in the world. It’s this enormous building, it takes 1.1 Houston Astrodome’s worth of air to get a single ton of CO2. Because CO2 is really diffuse, it’s a great space blanket that makes making your atmosphere warmer. But I did promise and we only have 28 minutes left. So, I want to start talking about the solutions. Because I’ll make it really clear, the technical and chemical solutions that people are touting, especially the fossil fuel industry, are not fit for purpose. But there are solutions.

Metta Spencer  

Oh, there you go. You’re gonna make me happy now because I’ve been saying forestry and agriculture, re.

Michael Barnard  

And… this is the agriculture side of that. So right now, we’ve got a bunch of the Earth’s surface under agriculture, and that agriculture is pretty crappy… it’s emerged out of subsistence farming, globally. And they figured out, they break up the earth… remove the boulders and stuff like that. I personally dug up a garden in North Bay when we moved into a new house and moved all the boulders down, and all did all that stuff for my mom, because I was a teenager and I had lots of energy. And it was easiest way to keep me from breaking stuff that was useless. And that’s good. The first time creating arable land, the first time you have to break the soil, you have to get rid of the stuff, the roots, the stumps, you have to get rid of the rocks and stuff like that. But after you’ve created arable soil, we’ve gotten into the habit of high tillage agriculture. And everybody’s seen that you run a plow across and it tears up a furrow of ground that it throws off to the side. Well, there’s three or four problems with that, first of all, is that plow-pan thing over here. Basically, you end up with this compaction layer in the soil, because you keep running heavy equipment across it. That prevents stuff from going through it as easily. And you end up with that problem. The second problem is your —

Metta Spencer  

these diagrams are fascinating. On the one hand, you’re talking about, well, the kind of farming my grandfather used to do. He ran a plow up and spit out his whole life 60 years with a plow. Now, but now this, you’ve got rocks, layers of all things, but this plow pan, the thing that you’re saying is, it’s hard is way down there. It’s not up towards the top. Is that right?

Michael Barnard  

That’s 20 centimeters down. It’s like a, almost a foot down.

Metta Spencer  

I didn’t know that. So, the top part is still fluffy enough that way down there that it gets packed in.

Michael Barnard  

So that’s problem one. Problem two is you can see the root network on the right. What happens is that every time what I’ll do… Statement two is, every time you run a plow across that top 20 centimeters of soil, what you’re doing is you’re ripping it up, and you’re turning it over. And then the biomass that’s in the soil, a lot of it immediately decomposes, emitting the CO2 that it had captured. So, if you got some corn roots in that top 20 centimeters, or some roots from some grain or something like that, what you’re doing is you’re enabling it to decompose rapidly. And when it decomposes, it emits CO2. And so, when you till… one of the first things you’re doing is you’re automatically getting rid of the CO2, that the root structures of your plants had put underground, at least for a while, right? Because underground, they still decompose just more slowly and differently. And there’s different things that processes go on. But the third problem… it’s kind of a bigger problem, when you when you till you’ve got that plow-pan, you don’t allow that network of bio pores to draw the carbon down underground where it can be sequestered for the long term. So, you’ve got a short-term carbon sequestration problem. Every time you tell, you throw a bunch of CO2 that was captured… since previous tillage into the atmosphere, but to there’s this lovely thing called glomalin…. Now glomalin is a protein which exists on fungus threads underground… I don’t know how much time you spent talking mushrooms with people, but mushrooms are a huge deal. This mycelium networks underneath the ground are this massive alternative layer. If you read “The wisdom of trees” or what is it, this great book by a Canadian about trees?

Metta Spencer  

I think I did I read a book like what you’re describing whether same title, I don’t know but about trees having a social life.

Michael Barnard  

Yeah, part of it is the types of fungus that exist underground. Now, the value proposition here I looked at the CSIRO, I rarely say that acronym out loud. But that’s the Australian primary scientific research facility that has done a lot of work on climate change and climate action… the equivalent of NASA in the United States, for example, and in you know, most of the work that gets done on climate gets done at a CSIRO. And they did a lot of work on soil carbon-capture techniques… assessment after a bunch of time and I did a lot of research and I published on this… what I found and I talked to experts around the world and advocates and non-advocates… it came down to glomalin. So, there’s, once again, there’s that short term thing. If you don’t tell that short term thing is really nice because you don’t automatically release the CO2. But if you get rid of that hard pan… the second problem is when you till, you disrupt the mycelium network, the fungus roots under the soil, and the fungus roots under the soil have this glomalin and that’s what binds carbon into long-term chemical depositions under the soil. So, it takes about 150 years for the glomalin pathway into long term sequestration to occur, but every time you till you disrupt that pathway — and so when we move to low tillage agriculture… from a carbon sequestration perspective, we automatically get the short-term benefit, which is useful for a decade or two, which is good. But we also… when we go to low tillage, we also start enabling this long-term pathway to occur. And so, all of the land that’s under agriculture, we want to turn into low-tillage agriculture to allow both the bio pores to get the glomalin process going, and to prevent the biomass that’s under the soil from just automatically turning back into CO2. The good news there is that’s a big win. We could get… all the agricultural soil, we get 20-30 years’ worth of stuff because soil stuff scales, and mechanical industrial stuff doesn’t scale. But we have a lot of land under, under agriculture. Right. And there’s two aspects to this that are worth thinking about. Three or four actually, the first one is about 80% of the land in the world is under control of corporate agribusinesses.

Metta Spencer  

80% Yep. Oh, wow

Michael Barnard  

Smallholder farmers are a rounding error. I people get annoyed with me because I … don’t really care about family farms. Unless they’re —

Metta Spencer  

all right. All right. I’m, I’m, I’m following you with enthusiasm. Good. I’ll tell you why. But go on.

Michael Barnard  

Yeah, because it’s much easier to change an agribusiness practice than a family farms practice. There are only a few hundred agribusinesses that control the vast majority of the land under agriculture in the world. And the nice thing about agribusiness, corporations is they’re sociopathic. They’re highly rational. And they seek maximum value. And they do it with spreadsheets, and things like that. They do cost-benefit analyses. They don’t do it based upon what they think is nice, they do it about what maximizes their value. And that’s good, because that means policy levers that provide carrots and sticks will actually change their behavior very rapidly, you can go to those several hundred … agribusinesses. And you can incent them to go to low-tillage agriculture. And you can penalize them for not doing it. And you have a small number of actors. And you can get a large benefit from it. You can also institute corporate-monitoring programs with mandated monitoring of fields. And then you can put in place penalties for false monitoring. And you can do that because you’ve got a small number of of actors again, right, if you wanted to go to the second problem is a lot of the smallholder farmers are subsistence farmers or close to subsistence farmers. And subsistence farmers are calorie strippers. They stripped every calorie they can for heat and food out of the atmosphere. If you look at Haiti versus the Dominican Republic, down in the Caribbean, they’re the same Island.

Metta Spencer  

I’ve seen pictures, one half is brown, and the other half is green.

Michael Barnard  

And that’s because on one half, it is a very poor country… and they’ve got subsistence farmers everywhere and they strip every calorie including cutting down every tree… take heat, water for their family to be able to cook food so they don’t die of food poisoning. And so we’ve got to move all the smallholder farmers, the subsistence farmers off the land, we can’t prevent them from being on the land, we have to move more to agribusiness, which really sounds is contra-indicated, counterintuitive. But we’ve got we actually have to give those subsistence farmers, those people in poverty who are stripping calories, something other to do — our universal basic income, guaranteed jobs, something so they stop stripping the calories and that land can go fallow again. And that’s the third part is a lot of the land that we have under agriculture today is wasted. The land that’s in agribusiness, land is highly productive. The Green Revolution is almost entirely an agribusiness revolution. And that’s been a massive advantage over the past 100 years. And smallholder farmers, a lot of them are subsistence farmers and…  they have very poor yields per acre. And it’s hard to change them because they speak 500 languages, and they’ve got to feed their families and they’ve got to feed them today. Right And so, avoiding that means giving them something else to do and giving them sufficient, enabling them to feed their families and moving to agribusiness

Metta Spencer  

Um, let me say where, I mean you are setting me up to have such fights with all kinds of people. All my friends are going to say no, the way to go is to try to give land back to small, small farmers etc. Okay, but the other thing is, I have done a couple of shows with a guy named Tom Newmark, who is the head of something called The Carbon Underground. He has a farm in Costa Rica, kind of a demonstration project of how to do it well. It’s a wonderful… speaker, I mean, a very fun, fun person to talk to, but a very smart. And some of my, the people of my, my community, my network who watch this, say, well, that guy is a greenwasher, because his argument was very similar what you’re saying, He says he works with going out and trying to, to deal with government officials, but also corporate leaders in the food industry. Because he says they are the people who are going to make the difference, they can put pressure on the people actually on the ground… digging holes, or whatever. And that they, they know that we’re ruining the soil. And we don’t have that many crops left in the soil before we’re all going to starve to death from depleted soil. And so, they are aware the corporate industry and food… that they’re going to have to make some changes. So, they’re the ones they’re the place to go to get some changes made. And so, you know, my friends say no, this guy is giving a justification for this corporate world [to]… take power away from ordinary citizens, the good yeoman farmer was a backbone of democracy… Jeffersonian theory, and so on. All of that is, you know, he’s undermining that. So, you’re just making a situation where I have to walk in and talk to these people. I don’t know, for it.

Michael Barnard  

Couple of last couple of things about this, I’m going to talk directly to this point, in 1800 95% of everybody were involved in agriculture directly, or in secondary roles related to food distribution. Today, it’s 3%. Those… 92% of people are people who go to universities, make computers, who do financial… banking stuff, who are the knowledge workers and who have leisure to create art. You know, the art of history is the art of the 1%. The art of today is the art of the 80%. The agricultural revolution has been tremendously valuable in terms of enabling us to flower as a species, well beyond the people who have to get up at dawn before dawn, you know, 11 months of the year, and do crop and animal husbandry-related activities. That’s the efficiency of agribusiness in corporate scale. And to be clear, we’re keeping ahead of a Malthusian problem. Because of agribusiness and the green revolution, a study came out recently, I read a couple of weeks ago, basically… we have achieved since in the past 40 years a very substantial increase in efficiency per acre. Because of the agribusiness and green revolution stuff we’re doing — we’ve lost 21% of that to climate change disruptions. Right. And so, if we had not been moving the needle in terms of efficiency per acre, we would have gone backwards in terms of efficiency per acre. In the past 40 years, we’ve taken a billion people out of abject poverty, into what by our standards is still abject poverty, but they’re actually able to make ends meet much more readily. We’re taking people being out of the position of being calorie strippers, and making them able to have more leverage jobs with a higher value for them and their families. We’re helping people stop living nasty, brutish, and short lives. But we only have 10 minutes left, and I do want to talk about treats. So, let’s talk about the best possible carbon capture technology. Let’s imagine we’re in 2100. We’ve got this nanotechnology, right. It’s a small compact thing, and you throw it on the ground. And… if there’s water and soil, what it does is it absorbs some of the water and it starts to grow. And it shoots a solar panel above ground to capture the sun and it shoots little pipes down under the ground, builds them underground to get to water, and it builds it up and then it builds out these pipes to give a scaffold to keep the solar panels erect and it drives the solar panels upwards to maximize the amount of light that hits the solar panels. And it has this structure that it builds and it harvests carbon from the atmosphere to make the pipes and to make the solar panels and to make the mass That it grows up and this amazing nanotechnology device. We there’s a hundred of different varieties of them that exist in different temperature and water and sunlight conditions, that some are better on slope, some are better on the flat, some are better for… some types of, you know, there’s some natural predators who like to eat these things. And we have those today. They’re called trees. This amazing nanotechnology, which is vastly beyond anything we can do. That self-assembles itself into a store of carbon for long term sequestration. All we have to do is plant seeds and seedlings

Metta Spencer  

and water them and weed them. And —

Michael Barnard  

No, no, no, no, no, you just have to plant them and step back, because they’ll figure out how to survive because that’s what they do. You have to plant the right type of tree for the right area, you have to plant multiple types of tree in an area. And you have to leave them alone for a long time. But if you leave them alone, they just turn into a mature forest. Life survives. And so if we take this as an example, let’s talk about scaling. I planted 12,000 trees with a friend on 25 acres in one weekend.

Metta Spencer  

Okay, how’d you do that?

Michael Barnard  

Well, he rented a tractor and it had a trailer behind it and the trailer opened up the soil. And we had racks of seedlings and I sat on the trailer. And I reached over and I put a seeding down into that opened up piece of soil between my legs. And then it closed it up behind me and we just kept driving all over his farm planting black walnut, and pine and beech and oak, and maple. We planted 12,000 seedlings — two guys, two days. And we drank a fair amount of Creemore beer in the evenings.

Metta Spencer  

It sounds like your truck was compacting the

Michael Barnard  

soil. Oh, not saying it’s perfect. But the nice thing about a tree is that it breaks through those pans. Because it’s turned, it’s taken the soil and it turned it in it took a farm area a quarter acre 25 acres, a quarter section, I think it amounts to north of Creemore, south of Collingwood, we turned into a forest. I took a picture of that forest the last time I was up in that neck of the woods, and I sent it to my friend who now lives in Australia, Rob Large, I’ll have to tell him and his wife who… studies parasites that I meant that I dropped their names. But that’s two people, two days 12,000 trees — and 12,000 trees means oh, a tree consumed after about 40 years a ton of CO2. So that’s 12,000 trees. Oh, that’s 12,000 tonnes of CO2. This is a big part of my own personal carbon offset that in my climate action, that and living in a tiny apartment and low carbon electricity and not owning a car because I live downtown so I can walk and bike everywhere. But that’s scalable. Now let’s talk scalability. Let’s talk about the numbers, a study out of Switzerland did a machine learning study of the world — we’re gonna get into big numbers again, Metta, my apologies but some of your friends some of your guests are going to be some of your viewers must be numbers nerd so I’m gonna give them some numbers. We used to have 

Metta Spencer  

I met these Zurich people… the trillion trees people.

Michael Barnard  

Yeah, I spoken to the lead researcher on that I was part of a study I did… I published a big report. Last year, Paul Werbos wrote the foreword for it… we’re talking on machine learning, as applied to clean technology and climate solutions. So that was one of my big reports from last year. But the Swiss guys, you know, there’s three or four big numbers here. First of all, we used to have 6 trillion trees on the face of the earth. Now we only have 3 trillion trees, we’ve cut half of them down. And a lot of them were cut down by those subsistence farmers. Because they stripped the calories off the land. Right? It’s just we were locusts. As if human beings were locusts. We cannot… avoid being locusts with intelligent practices and the right stuff. So we need the machine learning people said, the Swiss people said, if we planted a trillion trees, we’d get a bunch of carbon benefit. That’s about equivalent to changing agriculture. We could get like a couple of decades worth of emissions captured. Before we lose ground again, right? And once again, that turns into the glomalin pathway, it exists in forests as well. Once we have that long term, carbon 150-year, long term permanent carbon sequestration, as well. But a trillion trees is a lot. I recently ran the numbers for Pakistan, because I did.

Metta Spencer  

I also you got to really plant 2 trillion because half of them are going to die.

Michael Barnard  

Oh, but the other nice thing about forests is once you plant a tree, once you plant a tree, it’ll plant other trees by itself. Right? And so you don’t really have to plant 2 trillion because you plant a trillion in the right way.

Metta Spencer  

No, you’re not gonna get more than half of them survive.

Michael Barnard  

Oh, the point is, but the point is, if you plant a trillion, another trillion will get planted by the trees themselves, they’ll just be a year or two behind.

Metta Spencer  

Except that that those that trillion trees have to survive and plant the next trillion. And half of them don’t.

Michael Barnard  

I know, I’m not disagreeing point is that, you know, if we get to a trillion trees, we’ve got a win.

Metta Spencer  

Oh, sure. Yeah, it’s certainly better than nothing.

Michael Barnard  

Now, Pakistan has made a commitment to plant a billion trees.

Metta Spencer  

Now, look… a trillion is 1000 billion. So, a lot of countries go around saying, oh, we’re gonna plant a billion trees. Hmm. Well, you and 1000 other countries, we might get there. But well,

Michael Barnard  

This is the point of scaling. Right? So how do we scale? So, what is the scale for Pakistan? So, I did a calculation, I said, let’s assume that we have three different numbers that we would apply in some blend to figure out how many trees a country should plant. And so, I said, maybe the gross domestic product, compared to the gross domestic product of the world, that would be a good ratio. Right. And Pakistan has 216 billion annual GDP, and there’s about … 80 trillion annual GDP. And so that one says they should probably plant two and a half billion trees. So, a billion trees aren’t far off. From a population perspective, there’s a different ratio. And from a landmass perspective, there’s a different ratio, you kind of add those up. So, they should be planting somewhere between three and 10 times as many trees given those ratios, now, but the bigger the country, you know, and the more GDP, probably the more trees they should plant. Right. And so, Canada with our massive wheat fields, and our, you know, on… some semi arable land, we got a lot of trees up there already. But we clear-cut a lot of trees, too. I’ve walked through, clear-cuts are nasty places. All that non arable land in … Haiti, which is currently stripped for calories, that brown land, we should be planting with trees, we should you know, it, I worked it out, it would take about 8% of the total landmass of the earth to plant a trillion trees. It’s only 8%. That gives a lot of trees. Right. So that’s not bad.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah, but a lot of this, that 8% is in places like the top of a mountain where there are no roads, and you can’t get people in to do the planning and say, oh, but that’s trivial now,

Michael Barnard  

because now we have tree planting drones. Got these industrials, yeah.

Metta Spencer  

But I looked into this tree planting drones and they’re not nearly as good as I would wish. I was so excited when I heard about tree planting drones. But their survival rate, it varies from what kind of tree you’re talking about. But I’ve been the people I’ve talked to have actually done some studies of it. First of all, the companies won’t tell you what their mortality rate is. They won’t even they don’t even want to talk to me. But the people who’ve done some research, also don’t want to talk about it, because it’s not very good. The results 

Michael Barnard  

Point so do we care if we plant 10 seedlings to get three to survive? Personally, I don’t because seedlings are cheap. We can over-plant to your point. Similarly, in let’s just take China because we only got like a minute left. So, let’s take China. As of the last as of 2016. China had been planting trees as an intentional practice for 26 years. It started in 1990. At that point, they planted an area of the size of France with 38 billion trees. So, they were almost 4% of the way to the trillion trees by themselves. And then, in 2019, they actually diverted 60,000 soldiers from the Red Army to plant trees. So, China, and once again, this is a calorie-stripping story during the, you know, mistakes of the Mao era, they did. They devastated the landscape. They devastated the environment. And now they’re making up for that. And in part, they’re doing it for the secondary benefits of trees. They’re doing it to reduce air pollution, because trees make the air clean, and they’re beautiful. And they provide natural place, habitat for all sorts of things. And they provide durable wood products for engineered hardwood construction. And for other durable wood products, which sequesters the CO2 permanently in a different way than the glomalin pathway. So, we can plant a trillion trees, we can plant 2 trillion trees, we can we have the technology, we can do this, we can change agriculture. And those are scalable, effective ways that actually have marvelous secondary benefits for humanity. But the entire mechanical and chemical stuff. It’s just nowhere near a tree or a field.

Metta Spencer  

You know, I’m 1,000% in favor of everything you’re saying. And, you know, I I’ve seen some issues about how hard it will be to do. But I really do think this is the way to go. And my concern is with people who say, we don’t really need to do that all we really need to do is reduce carbon emissions. And we and I say, Ah, it’s way past the point where carbon emission reduction will do the job, we have to do we have to actually take stuff out of the air. And the trees and agriculture are easily the most promising way to do it

Michael Barnard  

For sure is and the last thing I’ll say on this is that I did a read a study recently of case studies of policy globally, seven case studies of country policy, and all those case studies, almost all of them except for oil producing countries, were focused on biological pathways for carbon sequestration. The world’s governments get this we get a lot of PR from the fossil fuel industry of a carbon capture. The average citizen doesn’t get this but government policy advisors do get this.

Metta Spencer  

Well, these little videos going to help move the public opinion that this has been not only fun, but very, very enlightening. Yeah, you’ve brightened my day for sure.

Michael Barnard  

Thanks so much.

T230. Is the Arctic Sending Us A Message?

T230. Is the Arctic Sending Us A Message?

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number: 230
Panelists: Craig Smith
Host: Metta Spencer

Date Aired:  21 April 2021
Date Transcribed and Verified:  15 May 2021
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits: David Millar

Metta Spencer  

Hi, I’m Metta Spencer. And I tell you, I’m looking out there at snow and here it is April the 21st. And I am shivering, but I’m not gonna shoot her long because we’re going to go to sunny California, where my friend Craig Smith is living on a house, which is about to vacate. Hello, Craig.

Craig Smith  

Morning. Hi, nice to see you.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah, well, this is going to be… maybe the last time I see this particular room, I see in the background that again, that great big poster about your book “Reaching Net Zero”. And I see up on top of the cabinet, your hard-hat days when you were in charge of a construction company. Right. So, I wanted it on but you wouldn’t you wouldn’t put it on for the camera. Anyway, this is the last year of your current series of talks, about that book that you and Bill Fletcher did together. I think he’s going to be with us next week. For another conversation, then we’ll let you have a little holiday for a few weeks as you move from Northern California from Southern California to even more Southern California. Right. You’re moving from Santa Barbara… moving northward. You

Craig Smith  

— a little bit north, right. Yeah.

Metta Spencer  

to Santa Barbara from Newport Beach, is that that’s the town where Balboa Island is located right? That’s correct in the Newport… Okay, so I hope you have a good, a good move. Anyway, here we go. We’re going to talk about the Arctic today. And as I just mentioned, of all the things that give me nightmares now, the Arctic. So, the topic of our conversation, is the Arctic sending us a message. And I want to know, is it yes, or no? Is that the answer?

Craig Smith  

Well, I believe it is. And I’m basing that on lots of new reports coming out in the last year or so about with data on ice melting trends in the Arctic and in Greenland and Antarctic. So, I’d like to discuss with you today that topic and try to answer the question is the Arctic sending us a message? So, what are what are some of the signs so you know, obviously, as we see less sea ice, there are stories — one of the dramatic ones I remember from 2019 was the situation where polar bears with less sea ice… that impacts the polar bears’ hunting because they use the sea ice to catch seals, their primary game — so starving polar bears were desperate and they invaded Russian town. Novaya Zemlya and the Re –.

Metta Spencer  

That’s wow, you know, that’s the island where they tested the nuclear weapons up in the Arctic.

Craig Smith  

Big bomb yes it was. And so, there were reports where there were about 50 bears, they broke into houses, in some cases, they attacked people, they were starving. So, they went up to whatever they could find. That continues to be a problem, the sea ice disappearances affecting wildlife. The other thing is that NASA’s recent temperature measurements of the planet by satellites show that the Arctic is warming more than twice as fast as the average of the globe… something called — the scientists referred to it as — Arctic amplification. And I’m going to come back to that in a minute. And we’ll discuss that a little bit later. But also, as you’ve noted, I think in your previous programs, … that permafrost is melting. And permafrost melting is an ominous sign, it means that the methane can be released and is being released. And that’s a very critical factor for future global warming. So why is this happening today? Or now I should say? Well, weather systems transport heat from the latitude and southern latitudes to the north. The heat is moved by ocean currents and air currents. And the poles warm, and dissipate this heat into… space. So, they lose heat at the poles, while in the middle latitudes, we gain it. And as that temperature differential changes, in other words, as opposed to getting warmer, then we have a situation where the currents of both sea and air are modified. And that can cause a number of different changes, very complex meteorology, affecting the jet streams. But it’s causing things that we’re all beginning to notice. Now, droughts in one place, too much rain and other places flooding, heat waves, wildfires, due in part to droughts, and in other parts to release of methane from melting of permafrost, which then causes fires. So, these are all things that are involved in the mechanism that end up in melting ice. Now, there’s a typical pattern of ice build- up in the Arctic. And it follows a pattern: it goes up in the winter, and then it goes down in the summer. So, in other words, around February or March, near the end of the winter, the ice mass area is at its maximum. By August, it’s at a minimum because of melting. So, there’ve been very careful satellite measurements beginning in 1979, of this phenomenon of the total area of the ice. And satellites provide means to make multiple passes and determine the area that is covered with ice. So going back to the first year, such measurements in the winner, there was 16, almost 17 million square kilometers of ice. By the summer of the following year, that had decreased to just about 7 million square kilometers. So about 10 million square kilometers of ice became uncovered. Now fast forward to now this winter, which we just ended, we had 14.8 million square kilometers, so it was about 2 million less than when the measurement started in 1979. And the low, which would have been last summer, 2020, was 3.7 million square kilometers. So now compared to when these measurements first began, we’re seeing only half as much ice left covered or land covered with ice left during the summer period. So dropped from about 7 down to 3.7. Last year. And the low point actually was in 2020… as low as 3.4 million square kilometers. So that is a trend that’s continuing. It’s gone up and down a little bit, but the overall picture, it’s going down. Now sea ice, you know it’s white or light gray and its surface reflects the sun back the energy from the sun back into space. About 80% of the incoming energy is reflected back. But as that melts, less ice is present, the dark surface of the sea absorbs that energy and causes more warming. And naturally, it causes more melting of ice, which leads to more warming. So, we’re concerned that this decrease in sea ice is a positive-feedback effect. It could lead to what scientists refer to as a “tipping point” and what we’ve discussed in the past… suddenly things no longer are linear, they start changing and the effects become more rapid, and potentially irreversible. Now another concern is that sea ice is getting younger. What that means is that the sea ice survives three or four years, builds up in and its height, and it’s thicker and more less likely to melt. But now the ice is thinner, doesn’t have a chance to build more, and so it’s more likely to melt. Other signs of warming. Again, you know about the opening of the Northwest Passage. These days is summer, during the summer months, large vessels can traverse that, they don’t have to go around to the Panama Canal. There are some consequences of that which are kind of intriguing from your broader perspectives which have to do with world peace. And that is a big Russian… military buildup in that area. What do they want to do with that? Maybe that’s a defensive measure, or maybe they intend to control shipping… who knows what the Russians could be up to with that? Alaska’s frozen rivers and other parts of the frozen North are starting to flow earlier, a very clear sign things are changing. Another important effect is that the loss of sea ice leads to more damage on the coast: coastal erosion. So, we have villages in Alaska, that are now not inhabitable. The sea ice acts as a buffer to protect the coast against the onslaught of winter storms. With that changing, some of these villages become uninhabitable, and occupants have to relocate to higher grounds. There are also effects on fisheries, changing of fish migration patterns with warming water. The consequences of melting permafrost are several folds. One is observed in many parts of Siberia today — in Siberia and towns in the far north — is subsidence. Roads subsiding, building foundations collapsing, buildings collapsing or becoming uninhabitable. And, and then as I mentioned earlier, some forest fires were triggered by leaking methane. So, concerning subsidence, Svalbard is a group of islands north of the Arctic Circle halfway between Norway and the North Pole. And the largest town there has a population of about 2100 people. It’s a good example, where the arctic temperatures increase now about 4 degrees centigrade versus the lower parts of the globe… 1.1-1.2 degrees centigrade. Now the permafrost is melting, and you’re seeing landslides, seeing buildings collapsing or being undermined, … foundations. Remember reading even… they had to relocate the cemetery, really. So, these are more examples that demonstrate that the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the world. And the other thing about that, is that more precipitation is falling as rain rather than snow. So, the Svalbard estimates, the last two months of winter, they have two months less than they had in the past…m and you might think that would be nice, but on the other hand, it has other consequences. So, another thing with satellites. Scientists have satellite observations during the same period and mathematical models. calculate the total mass of ice that’s lost. It’s a huge number. It’s so huge that it’s very hard to relate it to anything. 28 trillion tons of metric tons of life is lost since 1979. Actually, that’s in 2017. So, there’s, it’s ongoing. But what’s significant about that is where is this happening? So Arctic sea ice is about almost… 8 trillion metric tons. So that would be roughly a fourth of the total Antarctic ice shelf…. Glaciers mountain glaciers are in the same league, about 6 trillion metric tons. That’s from glaciers all over the world, the retreat of glaciers that we’ve seen all over the world. And the Greenland ice sheet is about half of… that amount (compared to the Arctic or Antarctic), about 4 trillion tonnes. And then the Antarctic… ice sheet is smaller, only about 2 1/2 trillion metric tons. But that rate of loss has increased by about 50-60%… since the 1990s, so in 30 years. And it’s continuing. And the estimate is that, from that melting occurred, that’s occurred today, we’ve seen about 1.4 inches of sea level rise. Now, you’re gonna have to remember that the primary effect on rising sea levels is when the ice that’s supported on land, melts… and adds to the level of the sea. Floating sea ice doesn’t have a significant effect. But it does have a small effect, people oftentimes forget the fact that ice has a less a lesser density than sea water, otherwise, it wouldn’t flow. And so, when it melts and becomes water, it’s, it’s an effect, a denser *layer…. And so, there is a minor effect of floating ice as well…  

Metta Spencer  

When the water in the ice melts, it’s freshwater. And this is denser than salt water…?

Craig Smith  

Less, less dense. So, the otherwise it wouldn’t float. 

Metta Spencer

Freshwater stays on the top.

Craig Smith

Correct. 

Metta Spencer

Okay, that is connected to this. I don’t understand it too well, but I watched, I watched several of… Paul Beckwith’s videos. He’s a guy in Ottawa that I know a little bit and, and he’s… a meteorologist and climatologist. And he talks a lot about this overturn of the current because when the fresh water comes out of the Arctic sea into the Atlantic, it comes to where there’s, there’s normally an overturn of the water… that water sort of goes from top to bottom there [thermohaline circulation]. And that has something to do with the rest of the currents. Whether it’s the you know, the [Gulf Stream] current that warms Europe, what do you call it? That would have something to do with the addition of more fresh water from the melting ice…

Craig Smith  

That changes the salinity. Obviously, more fresh water, right dilutes the salt water. So, the changes the salinity, and I don’t, I’m not at all an expert on ocean currents at all. I just like to sail on top. But the currents, the ocean currents are extremely complex. You have levels at one height in the ocean going north [Gulf Stream] and down below much deeper —

Metta Spencer  

That’s the word I was trying to find… Gulf Stream… a good example. Finally, into me, guys, oh –.

Craig Smith  

They’re affected by salinity, by temperature by other phenomena too — it’s just very, very complicated, but it can apparently happen very quickly, when you get to a certain threshold, there can be almost within a year or two, or 5-10 years, a very quick change of ocean currents… it’s kind of like a ratchet effect. It’s irreversible, or at least would be very, very hard to reverse… very hard to change. Yeah, yeah. So that you’re you want to stay away from that, that point where, you know, and but nobody exactly knows what the point is, or how we’re close to it. Yeah. I was talking with… Paul Beckwith about that, because he’s pretty good at explaining it. But I need to have him slow down —

Metta Spencer  

Go on? 

Craig Smith  

Well, I was just gonna say that, that concern has been expressed by other people much more knowledgeable than me. And he may be one of them. That we don’t want to see the Gulf Stream, suddenly reverse direction, that would have a lot of various effects on Europe, you know, it would radically change the temperature of Europe, because of the Gulf Stream –Temperatures are moderated in the northern parts of the globe — carrying warm water. So, if it suddenly reversed, I don’t know if anybody can even predict what all the… consequences would be, but there would certainly be a lot of concern. And, and like you say, if it reversed, it’s not going to get back to the normal very quickly, because we have all this greenhouse gas inventory in the atmosphere. And till we do something about that, we’re not likely to be able to change things. 

Metta Spencer  

Well, another prediction he does make is about what you mentioned, the albedo effect of the of the melting sea ice. Yeah, he says that, he would predict that within 10 years, and maybe as soon as within four years, there’ll be no summer sea ice in the Arctic. And that, of course, and then, you know, that really has ramifications. Because as you say, there’s a tipping point where the dark black ocean water absorbs the heat more and more. And then we have to talk about clathrates. But go on, because I’m waiting for you to talk about methane at the bottom of the ocean. That’s scaring me most. Yeah.

Craig Smith  

Yes, and you’re right about that the clathrates keeping methane trapped in that chemical, physical form. There’s a huge inventory. If it’s released, even a small part of it, it’s gonna have a very severe effect on global warming. So, the other question that people began to ask more, more frequently. Now. I don’t want to add to your worries, but I know you and I are both worried about this is, are we actually at a tipping point in some of these phenomena, and the one that comes to mind is Greenland. Like… the Arctic, Greenland’s ice melts in the summer and is rebuilt in the winter… primarily by snow fall. But now, you know, there’s increasing evidence that the winter renewal of the Greenland ice is not sufficient. It’s less than what melts in the summer and this if this goes on and on, then eventually there will be no ice in Greenland. So, for a number of years now… the summer melt has exceeded what’s replaced by winter snowfall, and graphs you’ve seen in some videos, I’ve done some programs that were quite interesting, where scientists went on the Greenland ice sheets and looked at the crevices and undermining of the ice… under-ice rivers flowing out the sea. And that, in turn, accelerating the melting of the Greenland ice. Deep canyons are covered with ice becoming hidden rivers underneath them, from the melting and undercutting of the ice. So that’s something else we certainly need to be keeping an eye on and if we… didn’t have any other incentive to take start taking action on curtailing greenhouse gases, I mean, I think that would be enough right there. Maybe on that negative note?

Metta Spencer  

Okay, I think I’m even more pessimistic than you are. And that’s hard to be. Maybe you’re not exactly, you know, ball of laughter and fun thinking about these matters. So, I wouldn’t, I wouldn’t say you’re exuberant about the future of the Arctic. But I think I’m even more scared, because I really do not believe that reducing emissions is still sufficient to do the job. If we cut emissions instantly… a huge amount, it’s not going to be enough. And that, you know, I’ve spent most of my adulthood working against nuclear weapons, because I have felt that the threat of nuclear weapons is the most serious… danger… confronting humankind. And now, I think it is not as serious as this problem of the Arctic, I think that even nuclear weapons are not as serious because the severity of the problem, I think, has to be measured by… how bad the consequences would be of a disaster, multiplied by the probability of the disaster, and the length of time we have to fix it. Okay, all those need to go in the equation. Well, the disaster of having the melting sea ice, or … a huge amount of methane in the Arctic is… just as bad if not worse, than the threat of nuclear war. Because the number of people who be killed, it could be an extinction event. You get that they say that, you know, something like .6 degrees, they expected an increase of about .6 degrees for… just the melting of the sea ice. And that can happen within a few years, we’re talking four or five years. So, an event that’s that quick, multiplied by the severity of the thing. And the fact that is so fast, we do not have enough time to, you know, whatever solution there might be, we’re not going to have enough time to do it. To prevent that, that’s what’s scary to me. And because when you get 2.6 degrees additional heat on the planet, globally, within four or five years, that is enough, it’s gonna run… the rest of it all, you know, you’re going to really release the rest of the methane because it’s all going to melt slower, but it’s going to come out and it’ll be irreversible. So that is, to me, the scariest thing that I can imagine and we just didn’t have enough time to fix it. So… the permafrost on land is going slower than this the undersea methane. And these clathrates, which are kind of crystals of methane and hydrogen, and water…  are down in the bottom of the Arctic Ocean, especially. Now, they’re apparently the Arctic Ocean is generally so deep that by the time this stuff… releases, it gets absorbed in the water. So, you don’t, it doesn’t get out for a long time, it will eventually get out in a long time. But… on the Siberian shelf, the East Siberian sea is a very shallow shelf of the… Russian landmass… Siberian landmass. So that’s only 30 or 40 meters deep. And it doesn’t have time to get absorbed… So that stuff is coming up. And I saw images of a ship going through this stuff. And it was like, you know, when you’re in a plane is going through clouds. I mean, it’s, you look out the window, and all you see is white cloud, you know? Well, it was like that. It was exactly like that, on this ocean. The ship was plowing through miles and miles or hundreds of miles, I don’t know, of methane boiling up out of the bottom of the ocean. 

Craig Smith  

It only wanted a match.

Metta Spencer  

That’s right, exactly. It would blow up. And, but the thing is, you know how it is so extensive, and it’s coming up out of this bottom of the ocean, apparently the bottom of the ocean. There are clathrates down there, and it is sort of held down by… permafrost that came from the last ice ages, and it slid down there. And it’s, it’s like a lid holding some of it down. But there are holes in it. And it’s, it’s escaping through the holes. And even the permafrost contains methane itself. So, you have this stuff coming up. And it is really dangerous. And the worst is under the Laptev Sea… There’s a huge reservoir of methane, like a just an enormous concentration of methane. And there’s way more than … is in the atmosphere or on land or anything in the in the in the world. So, it needs to be kept down. And they think that this thing could blow like a giant explosion. And it could happen instantly. And the people that I’ve seen, I’ve interviewed Peter Wadhams, and he’s going to be on another one of my shows in about two weeks. And Peter Wadhams is the maybe the leading you know, he’s among the top leading people studying the Arctic for the last 40 years. He goes there constantly. And he has a book called farewell to ice, which is about this, the melting of the sea ice and the probability that this is going to come out that it is coming out. But there’s a woman as a Russian woman, who leads a regular expedition to the Siberian sea. Every year, she goes through this area where there’s these plumes of, and yeah, plumes of methane coming out. And she is very apprehensive about the possibility of an explosive event of a huge proportion, which would be catastrophic beyond belief. It would be an extinction event, I’m afraid, most likely. So, I was asking Peter Wadhams, what, what are the possible remedies? I don’t see who are here we have time if you’re if you’re, if the timeline is that, that urgent, but if it’s, you know, if we had the time, what would we do about it? Well, nobody’s quite sure. And there are various things that they propose, like he said, No, of course, for once, if you just burn this stuff, it’s not good, because you sure don’t want that much to add that much CO2, but methane, if you burn, it turns into CO2. So, burn it, rather than allow it to go into the atmosphere, because 28 times as bad a greenhouse gas as CO2. So, if nothing else, just burn it. And that could be done. I gather, if you go through, and I don’t think I’ve wanted the job doing it. It’s dangerous… but I don’t know, I think it can be done. But the other thing is he says fracking, you could you could go down and do the sideways drilling, you know, they can drop. So, if they could drill into some of these concentrated… pockets of methane if they knew where it was, and pull it out… You could use it, then you could, it’s a better fuel than some of the other fuels. 

Craig Smith  

It’s basically natural gas.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah, it is. It is a fossil fuel and it would have bad consequences but it’d be better than… what we normally use a lot anyway. So, but that would be, you know, a real big operation, having fracking in that in that area. But the thing that he didn’t want to talk about is, because I asked him before we did this interview, I said, Can I ask you about this project to use iron salt, iron salt aerosols? Because I’d read about it. And he said, … let’s not talk about it yet — because, he said, we don’t know enough. And… if it doesn’t work, you don’t want to necessarily get people hoping. But I did. I have read and there is… a link to it. If I can find it at the end of the show, I’ll put it on the page where I sometimes put references to things. So, people can go look at this thing about iron salt. aerosols, where you would spray iron salts into the atmosphere, or maybe on the ground too, or something, on the ice anyway, it combines with chlorine. I don’t understand chemistry worth a hoot. But it then would create a combination that would then take some of this stuff down to the bottom of the ocean. Again, I’m not, don’t believe what I just said, because it’s all probably wrong… I don’t understand the chemistry. But it looked like iron salts could be the most. And it’s and that kind of stuff is very available. And salt is everywhere, it is not scarce at all. And you could spray it around, and that could be a solution. So, I got in touch with some people, there’s a man named [Renaud K. de Richter] in Montpellier, France, a university there. And he’s going to be on my talk show eventually, if I can find another person to join him. But he’s one of the two people who authored this proposal for the iron vault salts, and the… website they have is like a PowerPoint slideshow… with plenty of evidence about their reason to believe that this would be a pretty feasible thing to do, I think you could run around spraying quite a bit of the stuff… and I believe it would have a good effect. I think it’s not that different from the whole principle (well, it is different, but there, but there are also people who believe in and I’m sure you’ve read about this) of putting iron filings in the ocean to create phytoplankton, which then are going to absorb CO2 and go to the bottom of the ocean. To carbon. Yeah. So, I don’t know how I don’t understand the chemistry of any of it. But I really want to know more about this iron salt thing, because it except for those two things that I don’t know, of, of anything else that could be proposed as a realistic solution to this problem.

Craig Smith  

Yeah, well, I, I don’t know a whole lot about these different concepts that go under the broad name of geoengineering, I would be very hesitant to implement one on a broad scale, without having some kind of structured pilot project there, you could actually see what the efficiency is, or effectiveness. And then what are the side effects? I mean, you’re tinkering with forces, that we really don’t know —

Metta Spencer  

And I think they would agree with you. I think any of the geoengineers would say, well, we would be apprehensive about doing it — except, look at the alternative. If we think that the alternative is something like an extinction event where life forms, not just human but everything else, gets destroyed, then you’ve got to do something. Now!

Craig Smith  

I don’t know you have to do something. But I thought it was very interesting what you said about drilling. as, for example, fracking, oh, well, this would be a different type of drilling. Early in my career, we did some work for Philips Petroleum on their offshore oil platforms in the North Sea. So, I spent a number of weeks out in the North Sea on the Philips platform is fascinating that they’re drilling under very deep conditions. And the platform I was staying on, actually supported 50 wells, as I recall. So, they had 50 wells from this one platform down and slanting off in all different areas.

Metta Spencer  

Oh, so from one platform, they go out in different directions. Right.

Craig Smith  

So… this is like an interesting concept, then the oil companies certainly have the expertise to go to the Siberian. What did you call that?

Metta Spencer  

East Siberian Sea…

Craig Smith  

Yeah, they could go there. They could set up some platforms and slant drill and collect the methane… if it’s in a form or it would flow on — me, I don’t know, no chemistry or that. But that technology is certainly known and proven and in shallow water they could do. It would be even easier. And they could, that might be something that oil companies would be interested in, because it would give them a stake in the future that they’re not going to have otherwise by —

Metta Spencer  

Well, now then. But you know, there’s also the problem of politics in Russia, because that part of the ocean is mostly… defined as part of Russia because of the shelf of the Russian is that’s where they say Russia ends where that shows them 

Craig Smith  

their economic zone.

Metta Spencer  

That’s right. So, we would it would have to be with the permission of or with the cooperation of the Russians, maybe they would want to do it themselves. Who knows? But the problem with the Russians is they’re in denial. You know, they aren’t I don’t think they out say there’s nothing to it, officially. I mean, they are part of the IPCC, aren’t they? But they’re not. I don’t know whether. But the Russians, I’ve talked to, with certainly with the exception of this woman, I haven’t talked to her. But I’ve seen her talk, and she certainly is very pessimistic. And but most of the Russians, I know, more or less poopoo it, you know, they talk about global warming as if well, it might even be an advantage. Because look at all that we could get. There was an article in The New York Times, it’s stupid, New York Times people, how could they possibly have printed a thing like that, but they have an article about… six weeks or so ago, where they talk about… Russia is going to benefit from global warming, because look at all that land, that’s going to be no longer frozen, and they can… raise crops there. And it’s huge amount of land… that’s true. But imagine what really, do they listen to what’s going to happen when that permafrost melts? I mean, it’s catastrophe. And they don’t even mention that, you know!

Craig Smith  

So, one thing that the Russians do like to do is they like to sell gas to Germany and Europe. And… they finished that second pipeline [Nord Stream] now. Right. So, I don’t know what the logistics would be to connect Siberia and methane fields, to their natural gas pipeline system. But there really might be a market potential there. Who knows? I don’t know.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah, I think could be a market. And maybe, but give it enough time. But how long it takes decades to build a pipeline at least doesn’t it? How long does it take?

Craig Smith  

takes a while. Yeah. I don’t know where the closest connection point would be. I can’t visualize

Metta Spencer  

and the distance from Europe. I mean, I don’t know what maybe there’s another place they could… get rid of it. I don’t know. But

Craig Smith  

I just have been so impressed with what companies did in the North Sea. I mean, this is like 40 years ago, or 30 years ago. I mean, they have underseas pipelines, they have pumping stations underwater. And… they move the oil; I forget which way it went. They moved the oil to I think…  from the North Sea to England and the natural gas went to Europe, something that was —

Metta Spencer  

Doesn’t Norway have most of that or I don’t know, I know that Norway has a lot, money from Norway and the UK. 

Craig Smith  

Yeah. Basically, when we went there, we went to flew to Norway. Then we flew from Norway out onto the platform, that helicopter is quite an experience that I will never forget. tell you one little story one of my engineers asked the pilot he said we had to put on these survival suits to get in the helicopter. And so, he asked the pilot is as you guys ever have crashes and the guy says “yeah, we had a few” and, and he says, “well do these survival suits work?”. And the pilot hesitated for many looked at my, my engineer. He said, “Well, you know, we don’t really know because everybody was killed on impact.” He says that as we’re boarding the helicopter getting ready to take off. Anyway, we had no problem. But the other thing that was fascinating to me was, once a week we had a lifeboat drill. And… on top of the platform… four lifeboat stations… on each side and you had your assigned station. And these boats were in close. So, they were designed… to be lowered into the water in the event of an accident. And one person was stationed inside the boat with an axe. So, the lowering system wasn’t where he chopped this rope and the boat dropped in the ocean from about 60 feet up. And they were supposedly able to cruise through burning oil on the water. But thank God we never had any experience like that, anyway —

Metta Spencer  

The platform? Is that similar to this… Deep Horizon thing? Or whatever was in the in the Gulf of Mexico? Same kind of facility? Is that right?

Craig Smith  

Yeah, exactly. Now,

Metta Spencer  

… in the Mexican thing did they also have slanted drills that they were going in different directions? Or what? No. Wonder Yeah. Well,

Craig Smith  

yeah, it’s amazing how they do that. I don’t understand how they did it. But they, you know, they can go in different directions and know what they’re doing some,

Metta Spencer  

you know, environmentalists are just horrified at the idea of drilling in the Arctic. And I mean, I my instinct is the same as, as yours, that and geoengineering give me the creeps. But, you know, if you got to do it, some maybe, maybe, maybe that will be driven to it?

Craig Smith  

I don’t know. Well, yeah, I mentioned we need to stop emitting. And you’re right, it’s good. That’s gonna take, that’s a long-term solution. But I put stress on that right now. Because unless we get people woken up to the fact that we have to stop the emissions, we’re not going to get anything else done, in my opinion. But the sad thing about it would be — you recognize and why you’re concerned is — that we have this huge inventory of greenhouse gases up in the atmosphere. And even when we stop, if we stopped 100%, tomorrow, those gases are there. That’s more, “glass” in the greenhouse, and the temperatures are not gonna stop, not gonna fall instantly. In fact, they’re going to keep increasing for a while. And it’s going to take dozens, maybe 100 years before that gas is gone by natural causes. So, people say, well, we’ll suck it out… carbon capture. That’s all fine. But we don’t know how to do that today. We don’t know if we can do that today. We don’t know how many 1000 plants around the world that would take to do that. And how much energy it would take… trying to suck a very dilute substance out of the atmosphere is gonna take a lot of pumping power. And then what do you do with it, you got to store it underground somewhere. And our experience with storing things underground has not been 100% perfect. Anyway, you could lay awake nights worrying about it. And then people know you, you do worry about it, and I worry about it. Right. And again, more people committed. That’s the bottom line.

Metta Spencer  

Well… you don’t want to alarm people unless you have solutions. And I think… they’ll say, “Well, we know what to do, we have the solutions.” I don’t think the solutions you have are fast enough. And certainly, they’re not being adopted fast enough. And I think that there’s more needed that in terms of actually sucking it out of the atmosphere one way or another. I don’t have much faith in the economics or the feasibility of this “direct air capture”… by machines. But… I think the most promising… for reduction is major agricultural change. But… it’s not only for the sake of global warming, but because we’re not gonna have any food unless we do. The very thing that is needed to change to improve the quality of food production. And the amount of food that we’ll be able to keep on producing is exactly the same thing that will help us with global warming. So, putting more carbon into the soil is the way to go. And I talked to one guy my friends have one of my friends said, Well, he’s a greenwasher. Greenwashing is anybody who’s gives room for private enterprise to… who believes that private industry and so on can make a beneficial difference. So, I’m not predisposed to believe one or the other, I think I don’t see any reason why corporations couldn’t make a good contribution if they wanted to. So, I don’t rule that out. And this man, named Tom Newmark, is the head of something called “The Carbon Underground”. And he’s given a couple of talks for me … he understands the, the, the soil science of, of how these, they’re discovering more and more things about fungi. And, you know, things on the roots of plants, and how it all works. And that, that you can, you can do a hell of a lot more sequestering of carbon, by agriculture, if you know what you’re doing. And he has this carbon underground. The reason I brought it up is that he says, I said, well, who’s going to push farmers to change? You know, why, why do you expect farmers would make this very drastic change in the technology that they’ve always used. My grandfather was a farmer who plowed by, by hand, you know, until he got a John Deere tractor, which was a great day, you know, he can plow, but he was tearing up the soil, you know, and exposing all this carbon and releasing it to the atmosphere, and he didn’t know any better. But anyway, what this guy says is, yeah, farmers will change, because… big corporations now know that the handwriting is on the wall, they can’t keep on producing food from the, the soil that way, we’re ruining it. And then we have to do something to replenish the soil and restore it to the condition that it was in. So, you know, he says that these companies are the most powerful source of influence, to force farmers everywhere, to make some real changes in the technology of farming, and to do more. And, and I know that the French, about five years ago have a project called [4p1000.org]… 4 per 1000, … a small amount every year, their goal is to… increase the amount of carbon in the soil by that much. And then if that is done, there’s a, you know, very significant amount of, of influence that will be made on the amount of carbon in the atmosphere. So, again, that takes a while though, you know, all these things gonna take a while. And I don’t see how with the clathrates melting, these methyl hydrate things… melting in the Arctic… I don’t see there’s going to be enough time. And I think we got to do something like iron aerosol sprays or something that can be done quickly, and would have an immediate effect.

Craig Smith  

You said earlier that our recommendations in our book [“Getting to Zero”], we’re going … to help fast enough. And, and of course, Bill and I agree with that. And we I think I hope we made that clear in the book, we outline a very ambitious plan that could be done with current technology, that’s economic and all that. And by 2050, all we did was get back to where we were by 2020, or… 2000. But our point was, we need to… make a start. And, frankly, our hope was that by getting people to recognize it’s a problem, then it’s going to be easier to try to do some more far-reaching things. So basically, thank you, you’ve outlined what our next book should be, how do we do it fast? What do we do to have an immediate effect? You need to really start thinking about that but if we can’t get the world woken to the fact that this is a problem, I have to do something we won’t have any luck trying to sell faster approach because people don’t believe it’s a problem, though. Well,

Metta Spencer  

Yeah. And getting people conscious… I lie awake at night thinking about how to break into this system of denial. You know how to break that system of denial. And… I think we have to make people talk about things more. And it’s really hard because don’t people don’t want to think about it. Yeah. And people want to believe what they want to believe. So, they’ll listen to somebody who’s saying what they like to hear. And, and they’ll believe it and no evidence or rationality, I’m very I’m getting so old, you know, it’s showing, I tell you I’m getting to be very, very cranky and old and mean, I, I don’t I don’t trust people anymore. Because I see these people making such stupid decisions. And I think, what’s wrong? 

Craig Smith  

What’s wrong?

Metta Spencer  

I have to go here in a moment. But I thank you for all that you do. And you should not be discouraged. And I think your voice is a light in the wilderness and bless you for doing what you do. And if we had 1000 more people like you, we’d have probably more people waking up to this, but keep on and don’t get discouraged. What is wrong? Yeah, exactly. Yeah. And, and, and it’s so the whole thing is, you have to blame it on human beings, because too many of us… yeah, there we go. Isn’t this an update to our little conversation, Craig, we’ve had these little visits for months now? And I’ve enjoyed it so much. But I must say, this is not the way to end it. Think of something cheerful to say, Well, thank you, you too. And you say you’re gonna get ready for your next book. Well, okay. I’ll pre order a copy today.

Craig Smith  

All right, take care…

Metta Spencer  

take care of your health and have a great, a lot of fun moving out. All right. All right. You take care. Bye Bye. Take care. Bye.

T177. Japan and the Nuclear Umbrella

T177. Japan and the Nuclear Umbrella

 

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number: 230
Panelists: Craig Smith
Host: Metta Spencer

Date Aired:  21 April 2021
Date Transcribed and Verified:  15 May 2021
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits: David Millar

Metta Spencer  

Hi, I’m Metta Spencer. And I tell you, I’m looking out there at snow and here it is April the 21st. And I am shivering, but I’m not gonna shoot her long because we’re going to go to sunny California, where my friend Craig Smith is living on a house, which is about to vacate. Hello, Craig.

Craig Smith  

Morning. Hi, nice to see you.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah, well, this is going to be… maybe the last time I see this particular room, I see in the background that again, that great big poster about your book “Reaching Net Zero”. And I see up on top of the cabinet, your hard-hat days when you were in charge of a construction company. Right. So, I wanted it on but you wouldn’t you wouldn’t put it on for the camera. Anyway, this is the last year of your current series of talks, about that book that you and Bill Fletcher did together. I think he’s going to be with us next week. For another conversation, then we’ll let you have a little holiday for a few weeks as you move from Northern California from Southern California to even more Southern California. Right. You’re moving from Santa Barbara… moving northward. You

Craig Smith  

— a little bit north, right. Yeah.

Metta Spencer  

to Santa Barbara from Newport Beach, is that that’s the town where Balboa Island is located right? That’s correct in the Newport… Okay, so I hope you have a good, a good move. Anyway, here we go. We’re going to talk about the Arctic today. And as I just mentioned, of all the things that give me nightmares now, the Arctic. So, the topic of our conversation, is the Arctic sending us a message. And I want to know, is it yes, or no? Is that the answer?

Craig Smith  

Well, I believe it is. And I’m basing that on lots of new reports coming out in the last year or so about with data on ice melting trends in the Arctic and in Greenland and Antarctic. So, I’d like to discuss with you today that topic and try to answer the question is the Arctic sending us a message? So, what are what are some of the signs so you know, obviously, as we see less sea ice, there are stories — one of the dramatic ones I remember from 2019 was the situation where polar bears with less sea ice… that impacts the polar bears’ hunting because they use the sea ice to catch seals, their primary game — so starving polar bears were desperate and they invaded Russian town. Novaya Zemlya and the Re –.

Metta Spencer  

That’s wow, you know, that’s the island where they tested the nuclear weapons up in the Arctic.

Craig Smith  

Big bomb yes it was. And so, there were reports where there were about 50 bears, they broke into houses, in some cases, they attacked people, they were starving. So, they went up to whatever they could find. That continues to be a problem, the sea ice disappearances affecting wildlife. The other thing is that NASA’s recent temperature measurements of the planet by satellites show that the Arctic is warming more than twice as fast as the average of the globe… something called — the scientists referred to it as — Arctic amplification. And I’m going to come back to that in a minute. And we’ll discuss that a little bit later. But also, as you’ve noted, I think in your previous programs, … that permafrost is melting. And permafrost melting is an ominous sign, it means that the methane can be released and is being released. And that’s a very critical factor for future global warming. So why is this happening today? Or now I should say? Well, weather systems transport heat from the latitude and southern latitudes to the north. The heat is moved by ocean currents and air currents. And the poles warm, and dissipate this heat into… space. So, they lose heat at the poles, while in the middle latitudes, we gain it. And as that temperature differential changes, in other words, as opposed to getting warmer, then we have a situation where the currents of both sea and air are modified. And that can cause a number of different changes, very complex meteorology, affecting the jet streams. But it’s causing things that we’re all beginning to notice. Now, droughts in one place, too much rain and other places flooding, heat waves, wildfires, due in part to droughts, and in other parts to release of methane from melting of permafrost, which then causes fires. So, these are all things that are involved in the mechanism that end up in melting ice. Now, there’s a typical pattern of ice build- up in the Arctic. And it follows a pattern: it goes up in the winter, and then it goes down in the summer. So, in other words, around February or March, near the end of the winter, the ice mass area is at its maximum. By August, it’s at a minimum because of melting. So, there’ve been very careful satellite measurements beginning in 1979, of this phenomenon of the total area of the ice. And satellites provide means to make multiple passes and determine the area that is covered with ice. So going back to the first year, such measurements in the winner, there was 16, almost 17 million square kilometers of ice. By the summer of the following year, that had decreased to just about 7 million square kilometers. So about 10 million square kilometers of ice became uncovered. Now fast forward to now this winter, which we just ended, we had 14.8 million square kilometers, so it was about 2 million less than when the measurement started in 1979. And the low, which would have been last summer, 2020, was 3.7 million square kilometers. So now compared to when these measurements first began, we’re seeing only half as much ice left covered or land covered with ice left during the summer period. So dropped from about 7 down to 3.7. Last year. And the low point actually was in 2020… as low as 3.4 million square kilometers. So that is a trend that’s continuing. It’s gone up and down a little bit, but the overall picture, it’s going down. Now sea ice, you know it’s white or light gray and its surface reflects the sun back the energy from the sun back into space. About 80% of the incoming energy is reflected back. But as that melts, less ice is present, the dark surface of the sea absorbs that energy and causes more warming. And naturally, it causes more melting of ice, which leads to more warming. So, we’re concerned that this decrease in sea ice is a positive-feedback effect. It could lead to what scientists refer to as a “tipping point” and what we’ve discussed in the past… suddenly things no longer are linear, they start changing and the effects become more rapid, and potentially irreversible. Now another concern is that sea ice is getting younger. What that means is that the sea ice survives three or four years, builds up in and its height, and it’s thicker and more less likely to melt. But now the ice is thinner, doesn’t have a chance to build more, and so it’s more likely to melt. Other signs of warming. Again, you know about the opening of the Northwest Passage. These days is summer, during the summer months, large vessels can traverse that, they don’t have to go around to the Panama Canal. There are some consequences of that which are kind of intriguing from your broader perspectives which have to do with world peace. And that is a big Russian… military buildup in that area. What do they want to do with that? Maybe that’s a defensive measure, or maybe they intend to control shipping… who knows what the Russians could be up to with that? Alaska’s frozen rivers and other parts of the frozen North are starting to flow earlier, a very clear sign things are changing. Another important effect is that the loss of sea ice leads to more damage on the coast: coastal erosion. So, we have villages in Alaska, that are now not inhabitable. The sea ice acts as a buffer to protect the coast against the onslaught of winter storms. With that changing, some of these villages become uninhabitable, and occupants have to relocate to higher grounds. There are also effects on fisheries, changing of fish migration patterns with warming water. The consequences of melting permafrost are several folds. One is observed in many parts of Siberia today — in Siberia and towns in the far north — is subsidence. Roads subsiding, building foundations collapsing, buildings collapsing or becoming uninhabitable. And, and then as I mentioned earlier, some forest fires were triggered by leaking methane. So, concerning subsidence, Svalbard is a group of islands north of the Arctic Circle halfway between Norway and the North Pole. And the largest town there has a population of about 2100 people. It’s a good example, where the arctic temperatures increase now about 4 degrees centigrade versus the lower parts of the globe… 1.1-1.2 degrees centigrade. Now the permafrost is melting, and you’re seeing landslides, seeing buildings collapsing or being undermined, … foundations. Remember reading even… they had to relocate the cemetery, really. So, these are more examples that demonstrate that the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the world. And the other thing about that, is that more precipitation is falling as rain rather than snow. So, the Svalbard estimates, the last two months of winter, they have two months less than they had in the past…m and you might think that would be nice, but on the other hand, it has other consequences. So, another thing with satellites. Scientists have satellite observations during the same period and mathematical models. calculate the total mass of ice that’s lost. It’s a huge number. It’s so huge that it’s very hard to relate it to anything. 28 trillion tons of metric tons of life is lost since 1979. Actually, that’s in 2017. So, there’s, it’s ongoing. But what’s significant about that is where is this happening? So Arctic sea ice is about almost… 8 trillion metric tons. So that would be roughly a fourth of the total Antarctic ice shelf…. Glaciers mountain glaciers are in the same league, about 6 trillion metric tons. That’s from glaciers all over the world, the retreat of glaciers that we’ve seen all over the world. And the Greenland ice sheet is about half of… that amount (compared to the Arctic or Antarctic), about 4 trillion tonnes. And then the Antarctic… ice sheet is smaller, only about 2 1/2 trillion metric tons. But that rate of loss has increased by about 50-60%… since the 1990s, so in 30 years. And it’s continuing. And the estimate is that, from that melting occurred, that’s occurred today, we’ve seen about 1.4 inches of sea level rise. Now, you’re gonna have to remember that the primary effect on rising sea levels is when the ice that’s supported on land, melts… and adds to the level of the sea. Floating sea ice doesn’t have a significant effect. But it does have a small effect, people oftentimes forget the fact that ice has a less a lesser density than sea water, otherwise, it wouldn’t flow. And so, when it melts and becomes water, it’s, it’s an effect, a denser *layer…. And so, there is a minor effect of floating ice as well…  

Metta Spencer  

When the water in the ice melts, it’s freshwater. And this is denser than salt water…?

Craig Smith  

Less, less dense. So, the otherwise it wouldn’t float. 

Metta Spencer

Freshwater stays on the top.

Craig Smith

Correct. 

Metta Spencer

Okay, that is connected to this. I don’t understand it too well, but I watched, I watched several of… Paul Beckwith’s videos. He’s a guy in Ottawa that I know a little bit and, and he’s… a meteorologist and climatologist. And he talks a lot about this overturn of the current because when the fresh water comes out of the Arctic sea into the Atlantic, it comes to where there’s, there’s normally an overturn of the water… that water sort of goes from top to bottom there [thermohaline circulation]. And that has something to do with the rest of the currents. Whether it’s the you know, the [Gulf Stream] current that warms Europe, what do you call it? That would have something to do with the addition of more fresh water from the melting ice…

Craig Smith  

That changes the salinity. Obviously, more fresh water, right dilutes the salt water. So, the changes the salinity, and I don’t, I’m not at all an expert on ocean currents at all. I just like to sail on top. But the currents, the ocean currents are extremely complex. You have levels at one height in the ocean going north [Gulf Stream] and down below much deeper —

Metta Spencer  

That’s the word I was trying to find… Gulf Stream… a good example. Finally, into me, guys, oh –.

Craig Smith  

They’re affected by salinity, by temperature by other phenomena too — it’s just very, very complicated, but it can apparently happen very quickly, when you get to a certain threshold, there can be almost within a year or two, or 5-10 years, a very quick change of ocean currents… it’s kind of like a ratchet effect. It’s irreversible, or at least would be very, very hard to reverse… very hard to change. Yeah, yeah. So that you’re you want to stay away from that, that point where, you know, and but nobody exactly knows what the point is, or how we’re close to it. Yeah. I was talking with… Paul Beckwith about that, because he’s pretty good at explaining it. But I need to have him slow down —

Metta Spencer  

Go on? 

Craig Smith  

Well, I was just gonna say that, that concern has been expressed by other people much more knowledgeable than me. And he may be one of them. That we don’t want to see the Gulf Stream, suddenly reverse direction, that would have a lot of various effects on Europe, you know, it would radically change the temperature of Europe, because of the Gulf Stream –Temperatures are moderated in the northern parts of the globe — carrying warm water. So, if it suddenly reversed, I don’t know if anybody can even predict what all the… consequences would be, but there would certainly be a lot of concern. And, and like you say, if it reversed, it’s not going to get back to the normal very quickly, because we have all this greenhouse gas inventory in the atmosphere. And till we do something about that, we’re not likely to be able to change things. 

Metta Spencer  

Well, another prediction he does make is about what you mentioned, the albedo effect of the of the melting sea ice. Yeah, he says that, he would predict that within 10 years, and maybe as soon as within four years, there’ll be no summer sea ice in the Arctic. And that, of course, and then, you know, that really has ramifications. Because as you say, there’s a tipping point where the dark black ocean water absorbs the heat more and more. And then we have to talk about clathrates. But go on, because I’m waiting for you to talk about methane at the bottom of the ocean. That’s scaring me most. Yeah.

Craig Smith  

Yes, and you’re right about that the clathrates keeping methane trapped in that chemical, physical form. There’s a huge inventory. If it’s released, even a small part of it, it’s gonna have a very severe effect on global warming. So, the other question that people began to ask more, more frequently. Now. I don’t want to add to your worries, but I know you and I are both worried about this is, are we actually at a tipping point in some of these phenomena, and the one that comes to mind is Greenland. Like… the Arctic, Greenland’s ice melts in the summer and is rebuilt in the winter… primarily by snow fall. But now, you know, there’s increasing evidence that the winter renewal of the Greenland ice is not sufficient. It’s less than what melts in the summer and this if this goes on and on, then eventually there will be no ice in Greenland. So, for a number of years now… the summer melt has exceeded what’s replaced by winter snowfall, and graphs you’ve seen in some videos, I’ve done some programs that were quite interesting, where scientists went on the Greenland ice sheets and looked at the crevices and undermining of the ice… under-ice rivers flowing out the sea. And that, in turn, accelerating the melting of the Greenland ice. Deep canyons are covered with ice becoming hidden rivers underneath them, from the melting and undercutting of the ice. So that’s something else we certainly need to be keeping an eye on and if we… didn’t have any other incentive to take start taking action on curtailing greenhouse gases, I mean, I think that would be enough right there. Maybe on that negative note?

Metta Spencer  

Okay, I think I’m even more pessimistic than you are. And that’s hard to be. Maybe you’re not exactly, you know, ball of laughter and fun thinking about these matters. So, I wouldn’t, I wouldn’t say you’re exuberant about the future of the Arctic. But I think I’m even more scared, because I really do not believe that reducing emissions is still sufficient to do the job. If we cut emissions instantly… a huge amount, it’s not going to be enough. And that, you know, I’ve spent most of my adulthood working against nuclear weapons, because I have felt that the threat of nuclear weapons is the most serious… danger… confronting humankind. And now, I think it is not as serious as this problem of the Arctic, I think that even nuclear weapons are not as serious because the severity of the problem, I think, has to be measured by… how bad the consequences would be of a disaster, multiplied by the probability of the disaster, and the length of time we have to fix it. Okay, all those need to go in the equation. Well, the disaster of having the melting sea ice, or … a huge amount of methane in the Arctic is… just as bad if not worse, than the threat of nuclear war. Because the number of people who be killed, it could be an extinction event. You get that they say that, you know, something like .6 degrees, they expected an increase of about .6 degrees for… just the melting of the sea ice. And that can happen within a few years, we’re talking four or five years. So, an event that’s that quick, multiplied by the severity of the thing. And the fact that is so fast, we do not have enough time to, you know, whatever solution there might be, we’re not going to have enough time to do it. To prevent that, that’s what’s scary to me. And because when you get 2.6 degrees additional heat on the planet, globally, within four or five years, that is enough, it’s gonna run… the rest of it all, you know, you’re going to really release the rest of the methane because it’s all going to melt slower, but it’s going to come out and it’ll be irreversible. So that is, to me, the scariest thing that I can imagine and we just didn’t have enough time to fix it. So… the permafrost on land is going slower than this the undersea methane. And these clathrates, which are kind of crystals of methane and hydrogen, and water…  are down in the bottom of the Arctic Ocean, especially. Now, they’re apparently the Arctic Ocean is generally so deep that by the time this stuff… releases, it gets absorbed in the water. So, you don’t, it doesn’t get out for a long time, it will eventually get out in a long time. But… on the Siberian shelf, the East Siberian sea is a very shallow shelf of the… Russian landmass… Siberian landmass. So that’s only 30 or 40 meters deep. And it doesn’t have time to get absorbed… So that stuff is coming up. And I saw images of a ship going through this stuff. And it was like, you know, when you’re in a plane is going through clouds. I mean, it’s, you look out the window, and all you see is white cloud, you know? Well, it was like that. It was exactly like that, on this ocean. The ship was plowing through miles and miles or hundreds of miles, I don’t know, of methane boiling up out of the bottom of the ocean. 

Craig Smith  

It only wanted a match.

Metta Spencer  

That’s right, exactly. It would blow up. And, but the thing is, you know how it is so extensive, and it’s coming up out of this bottom of the ocean, apparently the bottom of the ocean. There are clathrates down there, and it is sort of held down by… permafrost that came from the last ice ages, and it slid down there. And it’s, it’s like a lid holding some of it down. But there are holes in it. And it’s, it’s escaping through the holes. And even the permafrost contains methane itself. So, you have this stuff coming up. And it is really dangerous. And the worst is under the Laptev Sea… There’s a huge reservoir of methane, like a just an enormous concentration of methane. And there’s way more than … is in the atmosphere or on land or anything in the in the in the world. So, it needs to be kept down. And they think that this thing could blow like a giant explosion. And it could happen instantly. And the people that I’ve seen, I’ve interviewed Peter Wadhams, and he’s going to be on another one of my shows in about two weeks. And Peter Wadhams is the maybe the leading you know, he’s among the top leading people studying the Arctic for the last 40 years. He goes there constantly. And he has a book called farewell to ice, which is about this, the melting of the sea ice and the probability that this is going to come out that it is coming out. But there’s a woman as a Russian woman, who leads a regular expedition to the Siberian sea. Every year, she goes through this area where there’s these plumes of, and yeah, plumes of methane coming out. And she is very apprehensive about the possibility of an explosive event of a huge proportion, which would be catastrophic beyond belief. It would be an extinction event, I’m afraid, most likely. So, I was asking Peter Wadhams, what, what are the possible remedies? I don’t see who are here we have time if you’re if you’re, if the timeline is that, that urgent, but if it’s, you know, if we had the time, what would we do about it? Well, nobody’s quite sure. And there are various things that they propose, like he said, No, of course, for once, if you just burn this stuff, it’s not good, because you sure don’t want that much to add that much CO2, but methane, if you burn, it turns into CO2. So, burn it, rather than allow it to go into the atmosphere, because 28 times as bad a greenhouse gas as CO2. So, if nothing else, just burn it. And that could be done. I gather, if you go through, and I don’t think I’ve wanted the job doing it. It’s dangerous… but I don’t know, I think it can be done. But the other thing is he says fracking, you could you could go down and do the sideways drilling, you know, they can drop. So, if they could drill into some of these concentrated… pockets of methane if they knew where it was, and pull it out… You could use it, then you could, it’s a better fuel than some of the other fuels. 

Craig Smith  

It’s basically natural gas.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah, it is. It is a fossil fuel and it would have bad consequences but it’d be better than… what we normally use a lot anyway. So, but that would be, you know, a real big operation, having fracking in that in that area. But the thing that he didn’t want to talk about is, because I asked him before we did this interview, I said, Can I ask you about this project to use iron salt, iron salt aerosols? Because I’d read about it. And he said, … let’s not talk about it yet — because, he said, we don’t know enough. And… if it doesn’t work, you don’t want to necessarily get people hoping. But I did. I have read and there is… a link to it. If I can find it at the end of the show, I’ll put it on the page where I sometimes put references to things. So, people can go look at this thing about iron salt. aerosols, where you would spray iron salts into the atmosphere, or maybe on the ground too, or something, on the ice anyway, it combines with chlorine. I don’t understand chemistry worth a hoot. But it then would create a combination that would then take some of this stuff down to the bottom of the ocean. Again, I’m not, don’t believe what I just said, because it’s all probably wrong… I don’t understand the chemistry. But it looked like iron salts could be the most. And it’s and that kind of stuff is very available. And salt is everywhere, it is not scarce at all. And you could spray it around, and that could be a solution. So, I got in touch with some people, there’s a man named [Renaud K. de Richter] in Montpellier, France, a university there. And he’s going to be on my talk show eventually, if I can find another person to join him. But he’s one of the two people who authored this proposal for the iron vault salts, and the… website they have is like a PowerPoint slideshow… with plenty of evidence about their reason to believe that this would be a pretty feasible thing to do, I think you could run around spraying quite a bit of the stuff… and I believe it would have a good effect. I think it’s not that different from the whole principle (well, it is different, but there, but there are also people who believe in and I’m sure you’ve read about this) of putting iron filings in the ocean to create phytoplankton, which then are going to absorb CO2 and go to the bottom of the ocean. To carbon. Yeah. So, I don’t know how I don’t understand the chemistry of any of it. But I really want to know more about this iron salt thing, because it except for those two things that I don’t know, of, of anything else that could be proposed as a realistic solution to this problem.

Craig Smith  

Yeah, well, I, I don’t know a whole lot about these different concepts that go under the broad name of geoengineering, I would be very hesitant to implement one on a broad scale, without having some kind of structured pilot project there, you could actually see what the efficiency is, or effectiveness. And then what are the side effects? I mean, you’re tinkering with forces, that we really don’t know —

Metta Spencer  

And I think they would agree with you. I think any of the geoengineers would say, well, we would be apprehensive about doing it — except, look at the alternative. If we think that the alternative is something like an extinction event where life forms, not just human but everything else, gets destroyed, then you’ve got to do something. Now!

Craig Smith  

I don’t know you have to do something. But I thought it was very interesting what you said about drilling. as, for example, fracking, oh, well, this would be a different type of drilling. Early in my career, we did some work for Philips Petroleum on their offshore oil platforms in the North Sea. So, I spent a number of weeks out in the North Sea on the Philips platform is fascinating that they’re drilling under very deep conditions. And the platform I was staying on, actually supported 50 wells, as I recall. So, they had 50 wells from this one platform down and slanting off in all different areas.

Metta Spencer  

Oh, so from one platform, they go out in different directions. Right.

Craig Smith  

So… this is like an interesting concept, then the oil companies certainly have the expertise to go to the Siberian. What did you call that?

Metta Spencer  

East Siberian Sea…

Craig Smith  

Yeah, they could go there. They could set up some platforms and slant drill and collect the methane… if it’s in a form or it would flow on — me, I don’t know, no chemistry or that. But that technology is certainly known and proven and in shallow water they could do. It would be even easier. And they could, that might be something that oil companies would be interested in, because it would give them a stake in the future that they’re not going to have otherwise by —

Metta Spencer  

Well, now then. But you know, there’s also the problem of politics in Russia, because that part of the ocean is mostly… defined as part of Russia because of the shelf of the Russian is that’s where they say Russia ends where that shows them 

Craig Smith  

their economic zone.

Metta Spencer  

That’s right. So, we would it would have to be with the permission of or with the cooperation of the Russians, maybe they would want to do it themselves. Who knows? But the problem with the Russians is they’re in denial. You know, they aren’t I don’t think they out say there’s nothing to it, officially. I mean, they are part of the IPCC, aren’t they? But they’re not. I don’t know whether. But the Russians, I’ve talked to, with certainly with the exception of this woman, I haven’t talked to her. But I’ve seen her talk, and she certainly is very pessimistic. And but most of the Russians, I know, more or less poopoo it, you know, they talk about global warming as if well, it might even be an advantage. Because look at all that we could get. There was an article in The New York Times, it’s stupid, New York Times people, how could they possibly have printed a thing like that, but they have an article about… six weeks or so ago, where they talk about… Russia is going to benefit from global warming, because look at all that land, that’s going to be no longer frozen, and they can… raise crops there. And it’s huge amount of land… that’s true. But imagine what really, do they listen to what’s going to happen when that permafrost melts? I mean, it’s catastrophe. And they don’t even mention that, you know!

Craig Smith  

So, one thing that the Russians do like to do is they like to sell gas to Germany and Europe. And… they finished that second pipeline [Nord Stream] now. Right. So, I don’t know what the logistics would be to connect Siberia and methane fields, to their natural gas pipeline system. But there really might be a market potential there. Who knows? I don’t know.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah, I think could be a market. And maybe, but give it enough time. But how long it takes decades to build a pipeline at least doesn’t it? How long does it take?

Craig Smith  

takes a while. Yeah. I don’t know where the closest connection point would be. I can’t visualize

Metta Spencer  

and the distance from Europe. I mean, I don’t know what maybe there’s another place they could… get rid of it. I don’t know. But

Craig Smith  

I just have been so impressed with what companies did in the North Sea. I mean, this is like 40 years ago, or 30 years ago. I mean, they have underseas pipelines, they have pumping stations underwater. And… they move the oil; I forget which way it went. They moved the oil to I think…  from the North Sea to England and the natural gas went to Europe, something that was —

Metta Spencer  

Doesn’t Norway have most of that or I don’t know, I know that Norway has a lot, money from Norway and the UK. 

Craig Smith  

Yeah. Basically, when we went there, we went to flew to Norway. Then we flew from Norway out onto the platform, that helicopter is quite an experience that I will never forget. tell you one little story one of my engineers asked the pilot he said we had to put on these survival suits to get in the helicopter. And so, he asked the pilot is as you guys ever have crashes and the guy says “yeah, we had a few” and, and he says, “well do these survival suits work?”. And the pilot hesitated for many looked at my, my engineer. He said, “Well, you know, we don’t really know because everybody was killed on impact.” He says that as we’re boarding the helicopter getting ready to take off. Anyway, we had no problem. But the other thing that was fascinating to me was, once a week we had a lifeboat drill. And… on top of the platform… four lifeboat stations… on each side and you had your assigned station. And these boats were in close. So, they were designed… to be lowered into the water in the event of an accident. And one person was stationed inside the boat with an axe. So, the lowering system wasn’t where he chopped this rope and the boat dropped in the ocean from about 60 feet up. And they were supposedly able to cruise through burning oil on the water. But thank God we never had any experience like that, anyway —

Metta Spencer  

The platform? Is that similar to this… Deep Horizon thing? Or whatever was in the in the Gulf of Mexico? Same kind of facility? Is that right?

Craig Smith  

Yeah, exactly. Now,

Metta Spencer  

… in the Mexican thing did they also have slanted drills that they were going in different directions? Or what? No. Wonder Yeah. Well,

Craig Smith  

yeah, it’s amazing how they do that. I don’t understand how they did it. But they, you know, they can go in different directions and know what they’re doing some,

Metta Spencer  

you know, environmentalists are just horrified at the idea of drilling in the Arctic. And I mean, I my instinct is the same as, as yours, that and geoengineering give me the creeps. But, you know, if you got to do it, some maybe, maybe, maybe that will be driven to it?

Craig Smith  

I don’t know. Well, yeah, I mentioned we need to stop emitting. And you’re right, it’s good. That’s gonna take, that’s a long-term solution. But I put stress on that right now. Because unless we get people woken up to the fact that we have to stop the emissions, we’re not going to get anything else done, in my opinion. But the sad thing about it would be — you recognize and why you’re concerned is — that we have this huge inventory of greenhouse gases up in the atmosphere. And even when we stop, if we stopped 100%, tomorrow, those gases are there. That’s more, “glass” in the greenhouse, and the temperatures are not gonna stop, not gonna fall instantly. In fact, they’re going to keep increasing for a while. And it’s going to take dozens, maybe 100 years before that gas is gone by natural causes. So, people say, well, we’ll suck it out… carbon capture. That’s all fine. But we don’t know how to do that today. We don’t know if we can do that today. We don’t know how many 1000 plants around the world that would take to do that. And how much energy it would take… trying to suck a very dilute substance out of the atmosphere is gonna take a lot of pumping power. And then what do you do with it, you got to store it underground somewhere. And our experience with storing things underground has not been 100% perfect. Anyway, you could lay awake nights worrying about it. And then people know you, you do worry about it, and I worry about it. Right. And again, more people committed. That’s the bottom line.

Metta Spencer  

Well… you don’t want to alarm people unless you have solutions. And I think… they’ll say, “Well, we know what to do, we have the solutions.” I don’t think the solutions you have are fast enough. And certainly, they’re not being adopted fast enough. And I think that there’s more needed that in terms of actually sucking it out of the atmosphere one way or another. I don’t have much faith in the economics or the feasibility of this “direct air capture”… by machines. But… I think the most promising… for reduction is major agricultural change. But… it’s not only for the sake of global warming, but because we’re not gonna have any food unless we do. The very thing that is needed to change to improve the quality of food production. And the amount of food that we’ll be able to keep on producing is exactly the same thing that will help us with global warming. So, putting more carbon into the soil is the way to go. And I talked to one guy my friends have one of my friends said, Well, he’s a greenwasher. Greenwashing is anybody who’s gives room for private enterprise to… who believes that private industry and so on can make a beneficial difference. So, I’m not predisposed to believe one or the other, I think I don’t see any reason why corporations couldn’t make a good contribution if they wanted to. So, I don’t rule that out. And this man, named Tom Newmark, is the head of something called “The Carbon Underground”. And he’s given a couple of talks for me … he understands the, the, the soil science of, of how these, they’re discovering more and more things about fungi. And, you know, things on the roots of plants, and how it all works. And that, that you can, you can do a hell of a lot more sequestering of carbon, by agriculture, if you know what you’re doing. And he has this carbon underground. The reason I brought it up is that he says, I said, well, who’s going to push farmers to change? You know, why, why do you expect farmers would make this very drastic change in the technology that they’ve always used. My grandfather was a farmer who plowed by, by hand, you know, until he got a John Deere tractor, which was a great day, you know, he can plow, but he was tearing up the soil, you know, and exposing all this carbon and releasing it to the atmosphere, and he didn’t know any better. But anyway, what this guy says is, yeah, farmers will change, because… big corporations now know that the handwriting is on the wall, they can’t keep on producing food from the, the soil that way, we’re ruining it. And then we have to do something to replenish the soil and restore it to the condition that it was in. So, you know, he says that these companies are the most powerful source of influence, to force farmers everywhere, to make some real changes in the technology of farming, and to do more. And, and I know that the French, about five years ago have a project called [4p1000.org]… 4 per 1000, … a small amount every year, their goal is to… increase the amount of carbon in the soil by that much. And then if that is done, there’s a, you know, very significant amount of, of influence that will be made on the amount of carbon in the atmosphere. So, again, that takes a while though, you know, all these things gonna take a while. And I don’t see how with the clathrates melting, these methyl hydrate things… melting in the Arctic… I don’t see there’s going to be enough time. And I think we got to do something like iron aerosol sprays or something that can be done quickly, and would have an immediate effect.

Craig Smith  

You said earlier that our recommendations in our book [“Getting to Zero”], we’re going … to help fast enough. And, and of course, Bill and I agree with that. And we I think I hope we made that clear in the book, we outline a very ambitious plan that could be done with current technology, that’s economic and all that. And by 2050, all we did was get back to where we were by 2020, or… 2000. But our point was, we need to… make a start. And, frankly, our hope was that by getting people to recognize it’s a problem, then it’s going to be easier to try to do some more far-reaching things. So basically, thank you, you’ve outlined what our next book should be, how do we do it fast? What do we do to have an immediate effect? You need to really start thinking about that but if we can’t get the world woken to the fact that this is a problem, I have to do something we won’t have any luck trying to sell faster approach because people don’t believe it’s a problem, though. Well,

Metta Spencer  

Yeah. And getting people conscious… I lie awake at night thinking about how to break into this system of denial. You know how to break that system of denial. And… I think we have to make people talk about things more. And it’s really hard because don’t people don’t want to think about it. Yeah. And people want to believe what they want to believe. So, they’ll listen to somebody who’s saying what they like to hear. And, and they’ll believe it and no evidence or rationality, I’m very I’m getting so old, you know, it’s showing, I tell you I’m getting to be very, very cranky and old and mean, I, I don’t I don’t trust people anymore. Because I see these people making such stupid decisions. And I think, what’s wrong? 

Craig Smith  

What’s wrong?

Metta Spencer  

I have to go here in a moment. But I thank you for all that you do. And you should not be discouraged. And I think your voice is a light in the wilderness and bless you for doing what you do. And if we had 1000 more people like you, we’d have probably more people waking up to this, but keep on and don’t get discouraged. What is wrong? Yeah, exactly. Yeah. And, and, and it’s so the whole thing is, you have to blame it on human beings, because too many of us… yeah, there we go. Isn’t this an update to our little conversation, Craig, we’ve had these little visits for months now? And I’ve enjoyed it so much. But I must say, this is not the way to end it. Think of something cheerful to say, Well, thank you, you too. And you say you’re gonna get ready for your next book. Well, okay. I’ll pre order a copy today.

Craig Smith  

All right, take care…

Metta Spencer  

take care of your health and have a great, a lot of fun moving out. All right. All right. You take care. Bye Bye. Take care. Bye.

T190. Russia, NATO, and Risk

T190. Russia, NATO, and Risk

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number: 190
Panelists: Sergey Rogov, Frederic Pearson, Alvin Saperstein, Erika Simpson, and Alyn Ware
Host: Metta Spencer 

Synopsis: Sergey Rogov discusses plans to stop Cold War II with Alyn Ware, Erika Simpson, Alvin Saperstein, and Frederick Pearson. They endorse those recommendations.

Date Aired:  19 February 2021
Date Transcribed:  13 March 2021 / 27 April 2021
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits:  David Millar and Adam Wynne

Metta Spencer  

Hi, I’m Metta Spencer, I’m in Toronto, but we’re going to have a very international conversation today. Because we have a very important, dear friend of mine in Moscow, who is going to tell us how we’re going to repair the relationship between Russia and NATO, at least we hope so. And, in addition, I’ve invited some friends from the US and Canada and from Europe, to join in this conversation because this is a very large and important issue that needs to be addressed.   Sergey Rogov is in Moscow. He is a Russian political scientist… member of the Russian Academy of Sciences. And he is the Emeritus Director of the Institute for USA and Canada studies, which, at least during the Cold War was by far the most important Institute in Russia because it very much informed Gorbachev and other policymakers. This is still a very important outfit. So, I know that Sergey Rogov himself is a very distinguished figure in Russia, and it’s a pleasure to be back in touch with him. Frederic Pearson, is a professor of political science and the Director of the Center for Peace and Conflict Studies at Wayne State University in Detroit, Michigan. Alvin Saperstein is a professor emeritus of physics at Wayne State, also in Detroit. Erika Simpson is President of the Canadian Peace Research Association and is a professor of political science at Western University in London, Ontario. And Alyn Ware is coming to us from Prague; he is the Global Coordinator for Parliamentarians for Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament. And he’s the director of the Basel Peace Office in Basel, Switzerland. Dr. Rogov convened a series of online webinars with very distinguished people who are concerned and specialists in arms control issues and international politics. To have a conversation about finding recommendations that could be made to improve the deteriorated relationship between Russia and NATO and especially, of course, with regard to the arms issues. And this gave rise to a lengthy document with a number of recommendations which I think everybody here would agree would be fine… And the question is, how realistic they are. How we can promote them and maybe are there are some angles or priorities we should try to establish about strategizing to accomplish some of these things. The Cold War was ended a while back, but it’s not very warm around here. Especially today, because North America’s in a blizzard. And I don’t know how you guys in Moscow are faring. But there’s… a lot of snow out in Toronto. Anyway. Sergey, maybe you’d like to —

all laugh)

Metta Spencer  

Anyway, Sergey, how would you like to start us off by giving us the story of what you’ve been up to? And what you think we should all be thinking about? 

Sergey Rogov  

This year, we’ll have to celebrate the 50th anniversary of my career at the Institute of the United States and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences. I never knew I would live so long. But now I feel like 50 years ago, I feel very young because I can see that we are back in the Cold War. I call it Cold War 2.0

Metta Spencer  

2.0 – you think we’re really back in a cold war?

Sergey Rogov  

Yes, and in some areas it’s even more dangerous now during the Cold War. First of all, the propaganda stereotypes of the Cold War are back, and they replace serious analysis of the relationship between Russia and the West. The political dialogue between Russia and the United States; Russia and NATO; Russia and Canada are almost nonexistent. The arms control regime almost completely collapsed. Last week — since the New START Treaty was extended… Last week … If Trump were reelected, as he claims, he was I’m afraid that the New START Treaty by now… would have been dead. Because the Trump administration was not interested in arms control regime at all. And in this situation, we have seen the resumption of the arms race. When almost all restrictions which were initiated years ago, the ABM treaty, the CFE treaty, the Open Skies Treaty. These limitations are no more operational because the United States withdrew from all those arms control agreements. And this is an extremely dangerous situation where you I agree with my friend Bill Perry that it is the most dangerous period in human history since the Cuban Missile Crisis. All kinds of terrible scenarios can happen if Rick Perry is again [unclear audio – potentially “revived ___”] and facing this situation being imprisoned in my home because of the coronavirus. Last year, I decided to try to do what I can do. I have to confess that ending the Cold War, some think will take a lot of time and money. And I personally don’t think that it’s… that I’m capable of producing a major breakthrough which will help to end the Cold War. But to prevent a nuclear war, to prevent military confrontation between Russia and the United States and Russia and NATO, I believe we’re responsible. I had a lot of experience in my previous life, when those agreements were initiated and I decided to do my best to initiate dialogue between the experts from Russia, the United States, NATO countries on risk-reduction between Russia and the West, so we can reduce the risk of a military confrontation. And we did it together with Alexey Gromyko – the Director of the Institute of Europe in the Russian Academy. The grandson of Andrei Gromyko if you remember Andrei Gromyko. 

Metta Spencer  

Gromyko… his grandson is now a big official there now. 

Sergey Rogov  

He is Director of the Institute of Europe. 

Metta Spencer  

Okay, so he was uh, he had he was on board with this completely.

Sergey Rogov  

And since I know a lot of American experts on arms control, we invited them to participate in weekly zoom seminars on arms control. And last year, we had more than 20 Zoom seminars as a result of which we were able to do something which, frankly, I didn’t expect we could do. We produced a joint statement.

Erika Simpson  

 No, you have to turn your virtual backdrop off Sergey so that we can see it. showing us the paper there. Now show us the paper. You can show us the paper now. 

(Sergey Rogov holds up paper)

Erika Simpson  

 We have all been looking at that intensely. 

Sergey Rogov  

It’s not a big paper… six pages. 

Alvin Saperstein  

It’s a good paper. 

Sergey Rogov  

It’s six pages divided into seven baskets. And something completely unexpected happened. We have had several dozen experts participating. But our recommendations were signed by 20 former foreign ministers and defense ministers. 

Metta Spencer  

Wonderful. 

Sergey Rogov  

By 25 former ambassadors; by senators; former retired generals and admirals; and by George Robertson and [unclear audio]. William Burns signed it too. Before he knew that he would be appointed to a very interesting job in the Biden Administration which I presume was a surprise for him. And for me… but the level…. 

Metta Spencer  

 Excuse me, Sergey, remind me what I know that Bill Burns has a new appointment, but I’ve forgotten what he’s going to be in the Biden administration.

Sergey Rogov  

Oh, it’s a very simple job: Director of the CIA.

Metta Spencer  

Oh, okay. So, he’s… (chuckles) that’ll be a funny role. But anyway, that’s good. 

Sergey Rogov  

Some other American experts who signed those recommendations also received serious positions in the Biden administration. And as I mentioned, there are seven baskets. First of all we recognize how dangerous the situation is. The recommendations were released in early December [2020]. So about 10 weeks ago.

Metta Spencer  

About 145 high-level people have signed it, right? It’s a very impressive list.

Sergey Rogov  

More. 

Metta Spencer  

More?

Sergey Rogov  

More than 165 because after we released it some more people were wanting to sign. Anyway, so we say that we have to make an extra effort to stop the very dangerous developments. And we called for the New START Extension. But we’re also called for the resumption of the practical dialogue between Russia and NATO. Since as you know, the Russia-NATO Council is practically doing nothing. We also suggested an immediate resumption of military-to-military contacts, which practically were completely frozen by NATO. We’re also suggested that we should negotiate additional measures to prevent dangerous incidents at sea, in the air, and on the ground… We also suggested that we should think how to manage military exercises to avoid panic that the other guy is planning a surprise attack. So, follow-through, or negotiate on transparency when you conduct such negotiations, and how we can limit the scope of such exercises, then we suggested that we should start discussing the prevention of deployment of the new generation of intermediate-range missiles in Europe, since the United States withdrew from the INF Treaty. And this is a very, very dangerous development since ballistic missiles – American ballistic missile or hypersonic missiles – is deployed close to the Russian border. For instance, in Estonia — the flight time from Estonia to St. Petersburg is just one minute; and the flight time from Latvia to Moscow is three or four minutes, and talking about ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles, the cruise missiles are slower. We also suggested we should talk about the missile defenses in Europe. And finally, we called for preservation of the Open Skies Treaty. Unfortunately, just before our recommendations were released, the Trump Administration withdrew from the Open Skies Treaty. And that’s why we decided last month to resume the dialogue between Russian and Western experts. The first topic which we discussed last week, and this week, is how to save the Open Skies Treaty. Of course, where I can tell you about plenty of details. But I think that I already consumed a lot of your time.

Metta Spencer  

Yes, but you’re the most important person to consume our time because it’s your proposal that we want to consider. So, I this is an excellent summary. Do you want to tell us what you think the fate of the Open Skies Treaty will be? I would assume that it’s that with Biden it’s a slam-dunk that certainly he will renew it.

Sergey Rogov  

I wish you were correct. 

Metta Spencer  

Really?

Sergey Rogov  

First of all, the Biden Administration already demonstrated that it can make U-turns and get back to agreements and international institutions from which Trump withdrew – I mean The World Health Organization, the Paris Climate Treaty, and a few other instances when Biden made the U-turn. Then he made a U-turn with the Open Skies Treaty. And first comes the question whether he can do it without verification by the US Senate. 

Metta Spencer  

Ah, okay, 

Sergey Rogov  

For that, as you know he needs 67 votes. 

Metta Spencer  

Yeah. 

Sergey Rogov  

And then years ago, when New Start was signed, 13 Republican senators joined the Democrats and voted for verification of the New Start. Only 2 survived. Only Murkowski and Collins – 2 ladies are still senators from the Republican Party. And people like Dick Lugar are gone. And I cannot imagine that certain Republican senators shall vote to support any arms control agreement at all. Maybe I’m too pessimistic. But it’s… miracles happen, but very seldom.

Metta Spencer  

Would you say that true for something like the INF Treaty? I mean that, you know, it’s been dead a while but you can’t just… Don’t trust me… Don’t trust me. But there is there are some possibilities. One of them that the US Congress in fiscal year 2020, the Defense Authorization Act, a year ago, created demand that the Trump Administration should inform the Congress about the decision to withdraw 120 days before the decision to withdraw is announced. And Trump didn’t do it. That’s why it’s possible to say that he violated American domestic law. And so the question is: Can Biden announced that the withdrawal is illegal and invalid? Because domestic law was violated. One additional factor is that the new Assistant Secretary for Arms Control and Nonproliferation – Bonnie Jenkins – she was the legal advisor to American delegation, when the Open Skies Treaty was negotiated. So, I presume that she knows plenty of legalistic details related to this treaty. But just before this Zoom meeting, I watched Biden speaking to the Munich Security Conference and he made very strong attacks against Russia and China and he didn’t mention arms control at all. Maybe I missed something. 

Frederic Pearson  

He also talked about the P5+1 with Iran. 

Sergey Rogov  

That’s true. 

Frederic Pearson  

And I think that he, he made a point of supporting arms control in that talk.

Sergey Rogov  

Sorry, I missed it. But the Iranian Nuclear Deal definitely is a top priority for the Biden Administration. I’m not sure that the Open Skies Treaty is a top priority. Maybe much less than top priority. And the time is running out and if the United States sooner or later doesn’t withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty, Russia will also leave the treaty. We are nice, but we are not so nice.

Frederic Pearson  

While we’re talking about American Senate approval and support for measures which are vital to have, I might point out of course, that the environment for this is not helped when issues arise such as Russian cyber-meddling, the so called “SolarWinds” election meddling, if these things are proven, and I think that there’s strong evidence — poisoning of people, diplomats, and so on and opposition people. It makes it much harder for an American Administration to bring things to Congress and carry through with it, when the things look questionable.

Sergey Rogov  

I don’t think that I can end the Cold War. So, I’m old enough to remember the Tonkin Resolution. Remember, what the US intelligence scheme… And remember, Colin Powell shaking the right stuff at the Security Council. So, I can give you a list of other events, which made me wonder – what are the facts and what is propaganda?

Alvin Saperstein  

The comments that’ve just been made are just another indication that the Cold War is still going on. There’s no question about that. We don’t need arms control if there is no Cold War. The reason for arms control is when there is a Cold War, you don’t want the Cold War to turn into a hot war. If there were no Cold War, we wouldn’t be here discussing arms control.

Sergey Rogov  

Well, I fully agree with you. And I don’t think that there is a need for an arms control treaty between the United States and Canada. Maybe 150 years ago there was an arms control treaty, but not today. And exactly because the relationship between Russia and the United States and Russia and NATO is so bad. We have. to negotiate the rules of the game, we have negotiate measures to prevent a military conflict, in particular to prevent a nuclear war.

Frederic Pearson  

I certainly agree that the situation is not good between NATO and Russia. But might I point out that it’s my understanding that some things are still going on that are constructive. For instance, I’m told that the dialogue between Russia and NATO, technically, between the military commanders and the Supreme Allied commanders in Europe and Europe, for NATO, still have never stopped. Top flag officers evidently do talk with their counterparts. Let’s hope that they do. Also, there are still rules in place, since the Cold War, that sort of defined how ships and aircraft are supposed to act, reduce the chances of incidents with each other. However, for political reasons, sometimes one side or the other, particularly often the Russians – it is claimed – don’t always follow the rules and buzz close to ships or aircraft to make political points, which is not a good prospect, certainly, but these rules do exist. And then there are the… the NATO-Russia Founding Act, could be, of course, worked on as is proposed in your document. But it’s a hard sell politically at this point, as is, for instance the new UN Treaty against Nuclear Weapons [TPNW]. I think neither side – and Canada included – has supported the UN declaration that nuclear weapons should be abolished. So, it’s an interesting standoff on that regard, too. And I think it would be beneficial if we all adopted more forthcoming attitudes.

Sergey Rogov  

The Devil is in the small details. I think we met 4 years ago in Brussels, right? 

Frederic Pearson  

Yes, that’s correct. 

Sergey Rogov  

When you talked about the Nuclear Ban Treaty and I was telling you that nuclear weapon states are like smokers. We know the bad details, but nevertheless, we didn’t stop smoking.

Alyn Ware  

I had a couple of comments. Firstly, Sergey, commendation on the excellent report and the recommendations, and on bringing dialogue amongst key experts and influential people to support those recommendations. These are really some really concrete measures, you know, for particularly the new Biden Administration to advance in dialogue with Russia and ones that most of the measures that you put in there wouldn’t require a new treaty that would have to be ratified by the Congress. I think it’s important also to look at additional measures, the ones that you put forward, there are primarily military measures. I think there are also additional political measures that could be taken, again, ones that don’t necessarily require ratification by the Congress. And we know that there were good measures taken in 1991 on reducing tactical nuclear weapons or taking them off surface ships, the nuclear risk reduction measures, lowering the alert status of the nuclear weapons that were done by presidential directives. First the US and then responded by the Russians. So, there are opportunities for measures that can be advanced, that might be reciprocated, that don’t, again, don’t have to require treaty. And in those senses, there’s three that I would raise, and with Bonnie Jenkins, as an Undersecretary for Arms Control and International Security, we have a champion of these. One is a reaffirmation of the Reagan-Gorbachev dictum that a nuclear war cannot be won, and so must never be fought. You know, and reaffirmation of that and getting additional nuclear-armed states to agree with it as running up to the NPT with very, very good political confidence-building measures, even if it doesn’t have any direct military operational aspect to us. Also, no-first-use and de-alerting are areas where I think there can be measures taken forward that Biden is committed to, Bonnie Jenkins is committed to, and I think there could be opportunities to advance some of those no-first-use and de-alerting initiatives as well. So that’s a couple of things I put forward to complement the excellent recommendations in your report.

Frederic Pearson  

And, the limitation on the deployment of heavy troop concentrations near borders, near the or the other side’s borders, I think is also extremely well taken. Particularly for the Baltic areas and also for the Ukraine areas. However, Ukraine remains a stumbling block. And I think that there needs to be some confidence-building measures in place…. for no further, shall we say, violations of sovereignty on the part of any side. And along these lines. So, I think also the new technologies have to be put into the document a little more strongly. You mentioned the hypersonic missiles: very, very disturbing, the amounts of the lack of lead time, to make sense of what is perhaps a triggering, or a response. Erika has written about, I think, a general who very wisely refrained from early commitment of a retaliation, just out of his gut feeling, but that if he later said, that he… knew what he later learned, he might not have refrained. So, we’re always on a tender edge about accidental war and launch-on-warning, which we don’t want to exacerbate. And also, evidently, there is development of drone torpedoes, nuclear drone torpedoes. I don’t even fully understand what they are. But the march of technology is very disturbing still, and I think needs to be reined in, on both sides. Space based systems with the US, you know, inauguration of something of a space force and probably the Russians with similar aspirations and capabilities. This opens up a Pandora’s awful box of violating the Outer Space Treaties, or weakening that regime. And of course, we have a new space power in the world and that’s the United Arab Emirates, so we don’t even know what to make of them.

Metta Spencer  

Erika goes to Brussels frequently and hangs out with these NATO friends. So, she may have some inside scoop.

Erika Simpson  

I wanted to draw your attention to the comments of NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg yesterday, last night, because they had a two-day defense meeting, a virtual conference amongst the Defence Ministers of the 30 allies. And so, he was asked, and it’s interesting in the light of what you’ve been talking about, Sergey, do we have a new Cold War? I think we all agree that we’re in another cold war. But what Stoltenberg said is, “There is no way to deny or to hide that over the last years, we had some difficult times, some challenging moments.” He’s referring to what we’ve all lived through with the Trump Administration, I’m sure. But then he goes on and says we have a new US administration very much committed to NATO, to the bond between Europe and North America embodied in NATO. These are his exact words. And then he says, “I really think we should then build on that, and have some real substance and forward- looking decisions at our summit later this year,” which, as you know, will be in mid-June. So, I looked at your recommendations in light of NATO high level policymakers… looking at your recommendations, which are very good, I agree with all of them. And it’s very impressive that during the height of the Cold War, you got 130, more than 130, high level decision makers to agree. So, when I go through them one by one, and I know, I have very little time on this show, but I just want to say, of course, they’re going to agree to the NATO 2030 reflection process, of course, they’re going to revive dialogue at ambassadorial level. Of course, as Fred was saying, the SACEUR will be communicating as well with Russian military officials, of course. They don’t mention, you didn’t mention much anything actually about the FMCT, the CTBT, and the TPNW, nothing. But I’m sure that that will be raised this August, and the Biden Administration is going to take action. So, I’m a lot more optimistic. And then on the Open Skies Treaty, which is close to Canadians’ heart, because we were the ones that originally proposed that way back in the 1980s. We proposed the exchange between Hungary and Canada. We don’t need Open Skies anymore, Sergey, because we have verification from space, we don’t need to have that particular treaty. So, if it goes by the wayside, I’m not that concerned. What I really liked, and I’ll end, is your stuff which Fred was talking about, which is the prevention of incidents at sea and in space, in airspace above the sea, and also space. I thought you were going in an excellent direction there. And then on focusing on the Baltic region, which Al was pointing to, which is also important. And this idea of exchanging information on snap military exercises. There’s a lot of stuff in there. And I just I think it’s great. Confidence-building measures on and on it goes it’s super.

Frederic Pearson  

I think they do inform each other, Erika. I think they do inform each other now about exercises.

Erika Simpson  

Yes, of course, you do. Yeah. And in the eastern Mediterranean, they have to because of Turkey and Greece, I’m sure that behind the scenes – we don’t know what they’re doing. But on his list of all the things that they want to do, including the NATO-Russia Founding Act to strengthen it, that all makes sense. It all makes total sense. And I don’t see why we can’t forge ahead by June. And in the next three years, why we can’t even introduce more things that Alan is working on, like no-first-use, and also talking about the TPNW… the Ban Treaty. So those are all even further steps that we can optimistically take forward, because like Stoltenberg said last night, we’re in a new er now. I mean, we were in the Cold War, there’s no question, and we’re still in it. But we’re in a new Biden era. And I’m very, very optimistic.

Frederic Pearson  

I like to put in a big plug for the OSCE.

Erika Simpson  

Yeah.

Frederic Pearson  

I think it was one of the best institutions ever established for the security of Europe. I think Sergey probably had a role in that, if the times were remembered, or he knows people who did. And that is a stabilizing agency if there ever is one, where dialogue at the political level can take place and must take place.

Alyn Ware  

Back to that, because that’s really important. If it wasn’t for that OSCE, I think that the Ukraine-Russia conflict would have spiraled out of hand. It was under the OSCE that Minsk Negotiations, and then the monitoring and verification of those. And it hasn’t resolved the conflict, but it’s helped to manage that. It’s also helped to manage other conflicts. It’s set up on a common-security framework. So, it’s a way that you can actually engage the different parties, without one feeling inferior or threatened by the other. That’s a really important framework, which gives it one advantage over NATO as being like a negotiating framework with Russia. The problem is we don’t have enough political support for it. There’s not enough high level, you know, Prime Ministers, Foreign Ministers saying we need to give more emphasis to the OSCE. We need more parliamentary support for it also, so that it’s used and strengthened – and also comes part of the common consciousness that this is a way of building security through common-security mechanisms, not just through building up defensive military and balancing forces of defensive military systems. So, I totally agree, and I’d huge plug for the OSCE.

Alvin Saperstein  

Can you remind me what those initials stand for?

Frederic Pearson  

Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

Erika Simpson

Which only got a very short sentence in your report, and then you followed it right up right away with hotlines. You wanted more hotlines in the Baltics, which I think is a great idea too. But, I mean Alyn is pushing for the OSCE and in your report, it got much less emphasis compared to NATO-Russia Founding Act and bringing in the SACEUR and hotlines and so on. Those are all good ideas too. 

Sergey Rogov  

Actually, we are going to discuss about how to use the OSCE, at one of our next meetings in our group. Metta, I want to respond to some of the points made by the colleagues.

Metta Spencer  

Yes, by all means.

Sergey Rogov  

I think we face a window of opportunity right now. But if we don’t move forward fast enough, the window will close. And let me try to clarify some of the points, which were mentioned by Frederic and others. MIL-to-MIL [potential Russian term for Military General or Russian Armed Forces] context – several times a year the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and the SACEUR meet. But at the lower levels, there are practically no contacts at all. And of course, we’re big guys. They talk about big things, then we need to agree to it. Which is absolutely necessary if you want to prevent incidents? They don’t go into the details. Yes, there are still now, the agreements negotiated during the Cold War, like 1973 Agreement on Prevention of Accidents at Sea. But apparently, both sides seem to be forgetting them. And one big problem here is that the United States several years ago, resumed the fights of the fighter-bombers near Russian territory. Russia responded, so our fighter-bombers are also flying near Alaska. But American fighter-bombers in the last several months, did some very dangerous things, like flying around Kaliningrad, flying over the Ukraine, and right now, the United States is moving some of its heavy bombers to an airbase in Norway. This is something which is an invitation for big, big trouble. And that’s why we need to resume what we had 20 years ago when there was a big Russian military liaison group in Brussels and NATO group in Moscow. They are practically eliminated. We have to do that. As far as de-alerting is concerned, the decision on de-alerting was never made. In 1991, President George Bush Sr. stopped the heavy bomber flights around the State of the Soviet Union. But this decision was reversed by the Trump administration. And de-alerting – Bruce Blair, who unfortunately is gone – was pushing for this idea for quite a long time. But this is an idea which is rather difficult to implement for several reasons. One of them is that with solid-fuel missiles it’s possible to do that, but with liquid-fuel missiles it’s impossible, because Russian liquid fuel missiles operate as a comprehensive system. So, you have to – knock on wood – to remove the warhead, but remove the liquid fuel, which – if we use the term of the New Start Treaty – will make this missile “undeployed.” And there was a huge debate with that you have to better concentrate on the need to reduce the number of deployed weapons, deployed ICBM [unclear audio – potentially “centers”] instead of talking about de-alerting, because de-alerting is rejected both by American Strategic Command and by Russian Strategic Missile Forces as a very risky idea. And no-first-use, Leonard Brezhnev in 1983 declared no-first-use, which was not believed by the United States and later, but in 1993, the Russian Federation gave up the no-first-use pledge, because the conventional bombs had changed so drastically. And the Soviet Union had conventional, huge conventional superiority in Europe. Today, it’s just the opposite situation. And Russian military doctrine speaks about two scenarios when Russia can use nuclear weapons. One is when we’re attacked by a nuclear-weapon state(s) with nuclear weapons. And another when as a result of a conventional aggression, the very existence of the Russian state is at risk. It’s not clarified what is “at risk.” But remember, the Napoleon invasion when Napoleon occupied Moscow? The building of our Institute is one of 100 buildings which survived the Great Fire of Moscow of 1812. Unlike the White House and the United States, our building survived. And Hitler, in 1941, he was stopped right near Moscow. My dacha – summer house – is on the front line where Nazis were stopped by the Red Army in December of 1941. So well, Russia is concerned about the conventional superiority, and the United States never made the pledge of no first use. And it will not make such a pledge. Biden spoke about the sole purpose of nuclear weapons. But —

Erika Simpson  

I’m just going to interrupt — because I think this story that the Russians tell us about the threat from a land-based attack is very true. That’s the generation that thinks that, but that’s preventing you from seeing the beauty of de-alerting, because you’re focused on the idea that we can’t separate the liquid-fuel from the missile-carriers, when we have a strategic triad. Not me, Canada – but you, USSR and Russia, you have submarines, so you have a secure second-strike. So you can take the missile, you can take the land-based missiles apart, and you can have a delayed… this is what we’re all talking about, is delayed deterrence. 

Frederic Pearson  

And I think that maybe Alyn could add on this, but it’s my understanding that at OSCE they have taken up the questions of conventional arms balance in Europe and that it may be a topic that can be “confidence-built”, shall we say, so that we don’t have to think about reliving Napoleon and Hitler.

Erika Simpson  

Yeah, we’re not gonna do that, again, that land-based dialogue, just toss that out… toss it. And think about space and the ocean, and then we’re secure. Like, we’re secure in the sense that deterrence will work with subs. I’m not an advocate of submarines whatsoever. I’m sad that India’s getting them. But anyway, Alyn, you can speak to this as well.

Frederic Pearson  

And as long as we can keep our capital out of certain hands, there won’t be a Hitler over here, I think.

Alvin Saperstein  

 (laughs) 

Sergey Rogov  

I’m not so sure.

Erika Simpson  

Well, I didn’t say that, you said that. (chuckles)

Metta Spencer  

Sergey, you said that the US will not adopt a no-first-use policy. I’m not so sure. I just had a conversation with somebody from the Union of Concerned Scientists in Tokyo, who says that the Japanese government is turning somersaults trying to keep the US from adopting a no-first-use policy. That he’s… they call it sole-purpose, which is, I guess, the same thing. But, and you mentioned that, but that beforehand, some time ago, that Biden had indicated that he was in favor of such a thing. Actually, I think Obama had said that —

Erika Simpson  

He’s on record saying he’s in favor of it, in that Foreign Affairs article, he said that he’s not in favor, but he said he’d think about it, right? 

Metta Spencer  

Well now… he could do that without having to go through the Senate because it’s not a treaty. I think he could just declare it, couldn’t he, all by himself?

Sergey Rogov  

The problem is extended deterrence. And Japan, South Korea, Poland, the Baltic States, other NATO members. They don’t want the United States to adopt the no-first-use. And today – please correct me if I’m mistaken – I believe that about them, trying to reassure the American military is about American commitment. He didn’t mention no-first-use, he didn’t mention the sole-purpose. But let me just add a few more footnotes. The situation when precision guidance weapons are developed very quickly, many of them can attack and destroy the strategic targets, which until recently was possible to destroy only by nuclear weapons. And while Russia today is ahead in development of hypersonic missiles, the US is catching up very quickly. And the serious concern, at least for me, is that the Strategic Command in the United States, STRATCOM talks with Admiral Richard again last week talked about integrating nuclear and non-nuclear strategic weapons. And this is something which makes nuclear war quite possible. Now, about launch-on-warming: Russian military doctrine does not use this term. But the Russian position is that we can launch our nuclear weapons when three conditions are met: when our early warning systems find that the opponent launched his missiles; certainly, when our early warning systems can calculate the trajectories of the missiles; and the third precondition is when we can calculate what and which targets will be destroyed. Only after that, we will launch our missiles. All that requires 20-25 minutes, something like that. But if intermediate-range missiles are deployed in Baltic States and in Poland, there will be no time to do that. And that can lead to a pre-emptive strike. That’s why you have to move the… 

Saperstein  

Sorry… This argument takes us back many years to the origin of the Intermediate Missiles Treaty. Let me remind you, the same arguments we use, the Soviets had the SS-20, and only after the SS-20 was installed, that we will be countered with the Pershing. And the idea was, as far as I can tell, the SS-20 was installed as a way of threatening Europe without threatening the US, so that the US would stay out of it. And the way of the US saying that we’re not staying out of it was to installed the Pershing. The result of that was scary for both sides, and some rationality finally surfaced and they had the Intermediate Missile Treaty. Why the Intermediate Missile Treaty was abolished is still beyond me. It’s not clear to me who abolished it. We claim that the Soviets, the Russians abolished it. You claim that the US abolished it. I’m not sure. All I know maybe it would be a damn good idea if we went back to that.  

Frederic Pearson  

I think we claim that the Russians violated it and then we withdrew from it, which is not good for either.

Erika Simpson  

Violated it by… [unclear audio – panelists speaking over each other.] 

Frederic Pearson  

… by the hypersonic…. 

Alvin Saperstein  

It would be a very good idea to somehow go back to that [treaty].

Frederic Pearson  

I’d like to offer the number 30 as an interesting theme here. For one thing, it’s very complicated to get the US Senate to support anything. But it’s also complicated to get NATO unified to support anything either, because it has to be a unanimous decision by 30 countries. So, this is a stumbling block, maybe in negotiations with using NATO as the base. I don’t know. The other 30 I was going to suggest, which does get at Sergey’s point about Russia being invaded in a way, is that we read in an article recently in Foreign Policy magazine that 30% of the western publics, in western countries, seem amenable to authoritarian rule. And that includes the United States, unfortunately. So, we have to be on guard and watch out for this problem. But of course, Russia itself is subject to the potential and the realities of authoritarianism, still. 

Sergey Rogov  

Of course.

Frederic Pearson  

And doesn’t know that the the application of this.

Alyn Ware  

I just want to swing out a little bit on because I think, you know, Sergey, is quite correct with regards to resistance from NATO states, particularly the ones close to Russia, Baltic states, and particularly from the defense establishment from those countries. And also, we’ve heard that there is, you know, opposition from defense establishments and Japan and South Korea to the idea of no-first-use, but we should not just look to the defense establishment as the ones making the policy. You know, policies are a mix of the input of the defense establishment, the foreign ministries, the administrations, and also, you know, the role of parliamentarians and campaigns and civil society. There’s a mix of those. And in some of these, there can be, I think, a shift when there is stronger political input from the foreign ministries and from the parliaments. And that can, as well as, alongside that, the reaffirmation that the Biden Administration has given to NATO partners for support in non- nuclear ways. This was something which Obama started in his Nuclear Posture Review, but it didn’t go very far. And I think this is something which Biden will pick up again, in his Nuclear Posture Review. How can the US provide non-nuclear support for the allied countries to help build the confidence in some of these steps for no-first-use, for example, or sole-purpose, reducing the role of nuclear weapons? Of course, it will need support. But we’ve already seen that some of that support is here, the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly has already unanimously supported the idea of no-first-use. And this is, you know, parliamentary representatives from Russia and the United States and all the European and NATO Parliaments. Now they weren’t the defense establishment there. I mean, these were more the political parliamentarians. But the fact that there is there’s some resonance for it, and there’s some support, gives opportunities. So, I don’t see that it’s like a done deal either way. I don’t see that we’re going to get it, you know, from the Obama, I mean Biden, administration. Nor do I see that as a lost cause. I think there is more of the political aspects of security that are coming into this, not just the military aspects. And I think political aspects of the security have been highlighted by the pandemic. There’s a much greater awareness that we need to build cooperative mechanisms, security, that deal with issues like the pandemic; that deals with economic issues; that deal with issues by the climate, that can’t really be addressed by military confrontation and balance of military forces. So, I think there are some opportunities to take this forward.

Alvin Saperstein  

Alyn, can you give me some insight as to why some of these American allies are against no-first-use? I mean, to me no-first-use is the most sensible, immediate step that certainly the United States could take. And it strikes me that we could probably persuade the American public to go for it. Why are these? Why are these militaries against it?

Alyn Ware  

So you have, as Sergey mentioned, you have Baltic states concerned about Russian aggression. And that if you don’t have the threat of first-use of nuclear weapons to deter Russia, there could be aggressive military action. That’s there. And Japan and South Korea, they have the concern about North Korean action. And so, there is belief, in the defense establishment, that you need the threat of first-use of nuclear weapons to deter North Korea. So that’s coming from a very military security framework. 

(unclear audio – panelists talking over each other; phone ringing in background.) 

Alvin Saperstein  

So, we’re told that a non-nuclear military forces on the American, on “our side”, are sufficiently strong. So why this fear? Why the necessity of nukes?

Metta Spencer  

That is very much bigger question that I think we’re going to address now.

Erika Simpson  

Can I just say something, Metta? I just want to…  

Sergey Rogov  

Let me make several points. 

Metta Spencer  

Eand certainly Sergei, yeah.

Erika Simpson  

Well, Sergey, I just want to congratulate you again on the report, because you do draw attention to the need to address tactical mid-range systems.  And your report, it’s excellent. It talks about the Baltic area; Poland, the Poles, always wanting to brandish nuclear weapons. So I think I really want to emphasize that — that part of the report, I think… there’ll be a lot of attention paid at NATO and also at the OSCE to those initiatives in the Baltics and also focusing more on the Baltic region. It is a big problem. It’s been a problem since Al was talking about since they wanted the Pershing and they wanted it to reassure them, they don’t need that…  we can have low… down the ladder of escalation. We can have troops in Poland, that’s what they’re talking about. Troops in — 10,000 troops and so on, that they will always be afraid of the Russian bear. But tactical nuclear weapons…

Frederic Pearson  

You have to be careful because you don’t want to make it clear…  make it look like you’re planning a Hitlerian invasion of Russia either.

Erika Simpson  

That’s true. Touché, touché.

Sergey Rogov  

There are some people in the United States who are concerned that Pearl Harbour can happen again, you know. So well, it’s not surprising that many people in Russia remember June 22 1941 [Operation Barbarossa – the Nazi German invasion of the Soviet Union]. Several, several qualifications. First of all, the intermediate range-missiles were deployed in Europe in 1959, the Jupiter missiles in 1959, in Turkey and Italy. And Khrushchev responded by deploying Soviet intermediate-range missiles in Cuba.

Alvin Saperstein  

Right.

Sergey Rogov  

Now we know what happened. Second point, speaking about no-first-use, there are three nuclear weapon states, which are members of NATO. Why the British and the French don’t adopt no-first-use position? They’re not afraid of Russian invasion. So what’s, what’s the reason why they refuse to do it? This is a serious question, because for Russia NATO forces, in group view, all NATO members, including three nuclear-power states, we count British and French nuclear warheads, together with American forward-based weapons. The next point concerns the OSCE. We want to discuss how the OSCE could be used to understand that they could arrange more Russian-Western military discussions. But realistically speaking, and Erika I think mentioned, why there is only one sentence about the OSCE. Right? You mentioned this, there is only one sentence. I have to confess it’s my fault. Thirty years ago, I was promoting OSCE as the new security architecture in Europe, instead of the Warsaw Pact and NATO. And that didn’t happen.

Erika Simpson  

Yeah.

Sergey Rogov  

 So OSCE to my mind is a very vegetarian organization. Where is the beef?

Erika Simpson  

Vegetarian? I’m a vegetarian.

Sergey Rogov  

Vegetarian. Take ‘beef’ as in, political and military ‘beef’ as in NATO and economic ‘beef’ is the European Union. So, Russia does belong to the OSCE, but Russia is not a member of NATO and the European Union. And, first of all, it’s ridiculous to think about parity between Russia and NATO. The difference is huge: 1 billion citizens living in NATO countries and 140 million in Russia. The gross domestic product of the NATO countries is huge, 20 times bigger than the Russian gross domestic product. The defense expenditures, the military expenditures of NATO are 25 times bigger than Russia. And in this situation, it’s very difficult for people like me to argue for Russia to adopt no-first-use nuclear policy; to adopt de-alerting; and make some other things which, to my mind, are quite rational. But in Russia, the dominant mode today — like in the West, in the West, it’s suspicion of Russia — and in Russia, it’s suspicion of the West. And that’s why I’m concentrating on what I call “zero agenda.” The arms control confidence- building measures, risk reduction measures. I simply try to avoid discussing very serious and very important political questions, which I’m afraid are not going to be resolved, like Ukraine or Georgia, for quite a long time. But there are some other opportunities for instance, Nagorno-Karabakh, the war there. In my view, Russia and the United States and NATO could cooperate there. We failed to do it, so the war happened. But now there is a very interesting situation when it made a NATO member today deployed some of its troops in Azerbaijan. So, one can speculate about a scenario when Turkey may be directly involved in the military fight with Armenia, and Russia is a military ally to Armenia. We have no commitment to protect Nagorno-Karabakh because we never recognized it as a separate territory from Azerbaijan, but we have a commitment to defend Armenia. So, if we think about scenarios like that, we can conclude that we can go beyond the arms-control measures and into military-political cooperation in dealing with problems like Nagorno-Karabakh and others.

Metta Spencer  

We certainly appreciate the fact that you’ve given us your time today. It’s been extremely stimulating. And we’re coming to the end now, we must wind up. And I guess you started off with the most pessimistic projection of any of us, which I guess most of us have to bear in mind that you may be right. But other people have expressed hope that the Biden administration may be more willing to make changes than I think you anticipate. Does anyone want to add… 

Sergey Rogov  

I hope it will! Simply, I’m not sure.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah, okay, well, let’s just keep our fingers crossed. 

Frederic Pearson  

I just was gonna say that although Russia may be behind the population level of NATO and EU, no other country has 11 time zones.

Metta Spencer  

(chuckles) I guess you can take pride in that.

Sergey Rogov  

Let me finish with an idiom, an old Russian wisdom:  Those who don’t smoke and don’t drink die absolutely healthy. 

Metta Spencer  

It’s been wonderful. Thank you so much, and we have so much work ahead of us.

Sergey Rogov  

Thank-you. It was my pleasure.

Metta Spencer  

It’s terrific. Thank you all.

Sergey Rogov  

Bye, bye now.

Metta Spencer  

We’ll be back in touch.

Frederic Pearson  

Thank you all.

T214. UK’s Nuclear Arsenal

T214. UK’s Nuclear Arsenal

 

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number:  214
Panelists:  Rebecca Johnson, Paul Meyer, and Nick Ritchie
Host: Metta Spencer

Date Aired:  26 March 2021
Date Transcribed and Verified:  6 May 2021
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits: Adam Wynne

Metta Spencer  

Hi, I’m Metta Spencer. And today we’re going to talk about nuclear weapons. And not just any nuclear weapons, but some brand new planned nuclear weapons that the Brits are planning. So, as you know, there are several countries in the world that retain their nuclear weapons and some people seem to want more of them. And that seems to be what’s going on in the United Kingdom now. A plan to acquire new nuclear weapons. So, we have three people here who know a lot about this topic and who are concerned about it as we all ought to be. In England, Nick Ritchie is a professor at the University of York. And Rebecca Johnson is in London at the Acronym Institute and she has been working on this issue for many, many years. And on the other side of my continent, Paul Meyer, is in Victoria, no, Vancouver. I guess you are in Vancouver, British Columbia. So, we are going to span the globe today. Nick Ritchie, would you please explain to us what is going on in your country and why we should worry about it? 

Nick Ritchie  

Okay, many thanks, Metta. And it’s nice to be with you to participate in this conversation. So, it might be useful for you for your listeners, if I just give a bit of context to this change in policy. So, coming out of the Cold War period, going back now to the early 1990s, the direction of travel for UK nuclear weapons policy was slow motion reductions. And through the first decade of the post-Cold War period, we saw the UK stockpile reduce and reduce down to the single nuclear weapons system that we currently have, which is the Trident nuclear weapon system, which consists of four ballistic missile submarines armed with American designed and built Trident missiles that we lease from them; and then a stockpile of UK designed and built nuclear warheads that are very closely based on an American version of a warhead that the Americans deploy on their own Trident missiles on their own submarines. So that’s where we were at the end of the end of the 1990s. And steadily, the two political parties that were in power in the UK in the 1990s – the Conservatives, followed by Tony Blair’s New Labour – successively reduced in a kind of salami slicing way, the number of missiles that were going to be deployed on the submarines at sea and the number of warheads that were going to be deployed on the submarines at sea, and then the overall stockpile of the UK nuclear warheads. And we were coming down and down and down. That continued through the 2000s until we get to a major defense review, conducted by the conservative and liberal democrat coalition government in 2010. And that review said, we’re going to reduce further, we have this target of reducing the overall nuclear warheads stockpile from 225, down to the target by the mid-2020s. So, kind of where we get into now. The target was to get down to 180. And that will be the overall stockpile. And to reduce the number of operationally deployed warheads – or operationally available, warheads – to about 120. And everyone thought, well, that process is continuing; those commitments were restated in another big defense review in 2015. And up until about a year and a half ago, government ministers were repeating this, this is still the plan. And then we get to this integrated – wow, this is a long title – it’s an Integrated Review of Security, Defense, Development, and Foreign Policy, which has been in the works for about two years and was kind of interrupted and influenced by Brexit and then the pandemic. So, this came out last week and to everyone’s surprise, we find out that these targets so on this trajectory of slowly consolidating the size of the of the nuclear warhead stockpile, that’s been scrapped now, and it wasn’t even a question of, kind of we’ve we haven’t reached that target of 180 of the total stockpiles yet – and we’re not going to but we’re going to stay where we are, whatever that might be. It might have been 195. It might have been 200 – or whatever. The government said we’re going to lift that cap – so the government uses this phrase “a cap” – on the number on the warhead stockpile. Part of that reason is because the government never says directly: “This is the number of warheads that we have.” They always… the language used is: “Our stockpile will be no more than…” – so no more than 225 back in 2010, working down to no more than 180. So now in the Integrated Review, they said, well, that cap is going to be lifted to no more than 260, which is quite an uptick from where we were. So, the trajectory was coming down bit by bit through the 1990s, through the 2000s, through the 2010s with the aim of getting to a maximum of 180 total nuclear warheads in the UK arsenal by the mid-2020s.

Metta Spencer  

Can I ask what that means? Because it does when they say: “It’s going to be no more than….” Does that say explicitly: “We were down lower and we’re going to actually increase the number we have?” Or does it mean that: “We’ve really had that many all along and we’re just not going to get rid of them?” 

Nick Ritchie  

It’s a bit of both, I think. But the government will be ambiguous about this. It won’t give you an answer to that question.

Metta Spencer  

Why?

Nick Ritchie  

Because, well, the language used is that: “If we give specific detail, it’s going to aid our adversaries nuclear planning.” That’s the national secrecy phrasing behind which details can be hidden. And in fact, in this review, the government has increased opacity over even the few details that it’s prepared to reveal publicly in the interests of democratic accountability. So, in fact, the government has said, whereas previously, it would say what the upper limits were on the stockpile; the upper limits on operationally available warheads; the upper limits on the number of warheads that will be deployed on the submarine at sea; all those sorts of figures, which kind of give you some parameters to see where the UK nuclear arsenal is at… This Integrated Review says: “No, we’re not going to tell you any of that anymore.” Your question about whether this is kind of building up to 260 or kind of just stopping where they were, we don’t know that. We don’t know how far down on this trajectory towards 180 by the mid-2020s – we don’t know exactly how far along the Ministry of Defense had got. But they were coming down from 225. So, to then increase up to 260 suggests they’re not going to stop where they are and that there are plans either immediately or looking over the next decade -which is the planning horizon for this Integrated Review – it implies there are plans to increase the number of warheads that we have operationally available beyond where we were in 2010 and getting back perhaps to where we were in the mid-1990s.

Rebecca Johnson  

One of my other hats is as a co-coordinator of all the partners of ICAN in the UK. And once this Integrated Review got published, we held an emergency meeting last week to discuss it. And this goes to your question actually, Metta, because there was a bit of a discussion, a bit of a disagreement, in fact, in some ways, between those who are wanting to be sending out the messaging that this was a reversal of position or that it was somehow a position that was a U-turns away from the NPT and non-proliferation and disarmament and so on; and others who were saying, you know, actually, if you take into account that in the period between 2006 and 2016, when the final decision – well, we hope it’s not the final decision  – but the decision was taken to actually start, as they say, cutting the steel on the new submarines for replacing the Trident nuclear weapon system. That the UK earmarked already 43 billion pounds to do that saying that was really just for the submarines.

Metta Spencer  

So, I’m unclear about what was being cut? Was this an actual reduction of something on existing nuclear submarines or is a non-expansion plan?

Rebecca Johnson  

Let me be clearer about that. And perhaps I should actually backtrack and explain very quickly that the current UK nuclear system is based on four Vanguard class submarines that are armed with us Trident missiles and they’re based in Scotland at two bases Faslane and Coulport. Up in Scotland. And the nuclear bomb factories that make and also refurbish the nuclear warheads for fitting onto the US missiles and the nuclear weapon system for the UK – the nuclear bomb factories are Aldermaston and Burghfield. They are based just west of London. So that’s, you know, that’s the current system. In 2006 to 2007, the government, the Labour government under Tony Blair, initiated a debate and a discussion about replacing and renewing. And that shunted on for quite some time until soon after, in fact, within about a month of the Brexit decision, the Prime Minister in one of her first acts – Theresa May – the Prime Minister, who came in when David Cameron just left having messed things up. Theresa May – one of her first steps was to hold the parliamentary debate that then took the decision to earmark the money which they had identified as essentially 43 billion pounds for the submarines to be built. They try to say this settled the debate. Of course, it didn’t. But let’s now move forward. The first of these submarines are being built in Barrow – a shipbuilder, they’re BAE Systems – but they’re not due to be ready until the 2030s. Now, the 43 billion that was earmarked then by the government, in fact, already a senior Tory, who was the chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee – Crispin Blunt – put the figure at nearly 200 billion pounds, which was actually very close to the 205 billion price tag that CND – the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament here in the UK – had identified, the actual replacement of Trident was going to cost the British people. So now I’m going to move rather fast, rather fast forward. So, when we heard about the integrated review, some were arguing that it was not so much a new development or a U-turn as making more explicit the options that the UK Government always had on the table. Making, in a sense, unmasking UK policies, but I think there are the two crucial differences. One is the crucial point, the point that Nick made, which is it has explicitly said we’re going to reserve to ourselves the right to go up to at least 260 warheads into the stockpile. And the second thing, and I think that this sometimes gets missed, but I think it’s extremely important, they were making a commitment, still, that they would always have a nuclear armed submarine at sea at all times. And that this is called the continuous at sea deterrence policy. And they also, and this is really important, they not only reduce the transparency and really increase the notion that ambiguity is essential for, you know, the nuclear weapons. But they and I just want to get this right to …  they basically changed, while saying that they were going to remain the same on the negative security assurances, the security assurances that UK has always given under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which have changed over time. That essentially said that, as well as saying that we would use nuclear weapons only in extreme circumstances, the very survival of our country. That and saying, really relating it to WMD threats. This time, what they’ve said is that we reserve the right to review the assurance, not only if the future threat of weapons of mass destruction such as chemical and biological weapons capabilities are perceived as a sufficient threat, but “emerging technologies” – this is the quote – that could have a “comparable impact.” So, expanding into that, and I think we need to think about what the implications of that really are, or could be. So, the number of statements has come out arguing that this does undermine the Non-Proliferation Treaty, the UN Secretary General Ambassador Antonio Guterres said as much. So did a UK, a very senior military [figure] Major General Jonathan Shaw asked the question, which we were all asking: “How is raising our strategic warhead cap relevant to a potential rise in the thought of short or medium range nuclear threat?” He then said this move was “inappropriate and disproportionate.” So, I think this is a question that we really need to discuss. It’s just, what has, you know, what have nuclear weapons at all got to do with real security? And certainly, what on earth is going on when the UK Prime Minister seems to feel he has to wrap and at least a perception of expanding the commitment to nuclear weapons into the Union Jack flag? What does this got to do with our real security? And even if you thought it had something to do with it? You know, what really is the difference between the current plans of extending the Trident system into the 2050s-2060s that obviously we’re working very hard not to have happen. But his current policy – why increase? And why do it now? And I think that’s a question to be raised. 

Paul Meyer  

I might jump in here now. You know, whatever the sort of rationale within Whitehall, I think we have to acknowledge that the optics on this move are just terrible. And there is outside of the UK, I think, a real sense of betrayal. In terms of this shift, because of all the five nuclear weapon states recognized under the NPT, the UK, in many ways seem to be the most progressive, the one that was most committed to transparency in terms of its deployed and stockpile of weapons; it’s reduction to one system; it’s more apparent support for further moves on nuclear disarmament. And suddenly, to turn on the dime, it seemed indirect contravention of assurances provided by the Minister of State at the Foreign Office at the last NPT review conference, that this reduction down to 180 was to be achieved in the 2020s. To in fact, have authorized a 44% increase in the potential nuclear arsenal. This sends the worst of all possible messages through the NPT, which is frankly in a pretty fragile situation at the moment. Anyways, its last review conference in 2015, failed to come up with a consensus outcome. It was to have its 50th Anniversary Review Conference in the spring of 2020. COVID-19 intervened and now that review conference is slated for August. But at this time when there is already great pressure on the viability, continued viability of the NPT to have a nuclear weapon state in a sense, reverse itself and suggest that we need more weapons rather than fewer, obviously just adds to the existing skepticism by the 185 non-nuclear weapon states parties to that treaty, that there’s any sincerity at all, or intention by the nuclear weapon states to honor their Article 6 commitment to move towards nuclear disarmament. So, it’s a very counterproductive move at this time. Here in Canada, the Canadian Network to Abolish Nuclear Weapons – an umbrella group of 18 nongovernmental organizations that promote peace and security – have just issued a press release highly critical of this move. They’ve called upon the Canadian government to intervene with their ally, the UK – and have in that release, I should note, that it also quotes remarks the German Foreign Minister has made, you know, basically saying, you know, as long as you hang on to these weapons, others are going to want to have them. And this move, in the contrary direction, undercuts the possibilities for cooperation and agreement and a successful result of that NPT review conference. So, it is a very disturbing development for strategic stability and for the continued sort of authority of the nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament regime, in light of this British action.

Nick Ritchie  

And could I add a bit of further context of that, because Paul, you’ve captured the international response to this move by the UK and how that quite obviously contradicts a self-characterization from our diplomats over the last 20 to 30 years of the UK as the most responsible of the NPT, five nuclear weapon states. The most forward leaning on nuclear disarmament, and so on. And, it could tell that story, you know, with a reasonable degree of sincerity, as long as it was on this slow motion, downward trajectory with its nuclear arsenal, and so on. Okay, with a pinch of salt, we can accept that. Now that’s been thoroughly contradicted by this move, I think. And I don’t know if Boris Johnson; the advisors around him; Defense Secretary Ben Wallace – are aware of this. And even if they are then perhaps whether they even care. You’ve got that contradiction there. But the broader context here is the post Brexit framing by the Tory Brexit ideologues of their imagining of Britain in the world after Brexit. You have this narrative of global Britain, that gained traction and was articulated under Theresa May. And now in particular, under Boris Johnson, that frames a post Brexit Britain in terms of kind of being freed from the bureaucratic shackles of the EU – now free to stride the world again. Lots of Rule Britannia coming back out, in terms of discourse from Tory MPs in Parliament. Part of this is quite nationalistic… I mean, they frame it with the slogan, “Global Britain.” And there’s lots of talk of sort of the need for cooperation, multilateralism, and diplomacy in the Integrated Review. But at its heart, it’s a very nationalistic perspective. Very bombastic that frames this Global Britain idea. And Britain being a global power with global reach in in quite militaristic ways. And their capacity to sustain and deploy the Trident nuclear weapon system that gives the UK kind of global nuclear reach and underpins its pretensions to global military power is part and parcel of that. So on the one hand, you’ve got real disappointment that the UK has reversed this kind of trajectory it was on and he’s kind of reclaiming the necessity and legitimacy of nuclear weapons and kind of saying, you know, we’ve got nuclear weapons and we should be proud of them. And when you’ve got this kind of percolating through in the narrative in the UK as well – that that needs to be understood within this broader post Brexit global Britain narrative, which has come through in this Integrated Review, and is and is built on, you know, these kind of pretensions to global military power. I mean, what you’ve essentially got with the UK Armed Forces now at least two big expensive symbolic military weapon systems, the Trident System and the various forces other bits of military kit that need to go into protecting those submarines at sea; and then the aircraft carriers, the carrier battle groups, which are big, expensive things. And that’s kind of it. That’s what the UK military has almost been reduced to. The symbolic significance of those within this post Brexit narrative can’t be underestimated, too. 

Rebecca Johnson  

I think that’s absolutely right. And at the same time, they have really outraged the defense services by basically saying that they’re going to cut the troops. The people on the ground, who are being sent abroad to do various tasks. And it’s a funny mishmash, this, because it has a lot of the whole Integrated Review has a lot of stuff in it about soft power. And actually, a recognition that we have a lot of different kinds of tools. For that, you know, to use soft power tools, and a range of different roles for defense services, that that could be used. So, it’s dressed up in that kind of clothing. And then you get to the nuclear weapons and it’s headed that, you know, the nuclear deterrent which starts off the UK’s independent nuclear deterrent, which, of course, the Brits have been doing for a long time, they can’t really bear to acknowledge that we have nuclear weapons, This goes back, it predates Boris, it goes back also to Labour governments, where we have a deterrent, and we’re worried about the nuclear weapons of, you know, Russia or China or Iran, that actually doesn’t have them, although we have reason to be worried that they might get them because they are part of a system that where, where those who have nuclear weapons are carrying on with them, and carrying on, you know, increasing and redesigning and enhancing the nuclear weapons. And this is a context that has to be taken into account. But the other thing that struck me if I can just quickly add to this, that really adding on to what Nick said was, that as well as the whole jingoism, when you read it, it’s very long on rhetoric. It’s very short of reality. It’s got no real strategy. And if you look beyond the rhetoric of for example, you know, putting climate and biodiversity as number one priorities, and obviously COVID, and, so on. When you actually look at that budgeting, then you see something of a very different picture. And so, the budgets are still, as Nick said, they’re going into the high-ticket kind of, really the white elephants that signal great power, but actually makes us look like we’ve got that British phrase, I don’t know if you have something similar in Canada – all mouth and no trousers. 

Metta Spencer  

In Texas, they say all hat and no cattle.

[background chuckles]

Paul Meyer  

If I could ask Rebecca and Nick, for one thing that struck me I mean, the Review maintains this sort of commitment to a minimum nuclear deterrent. And yet, you know, we are seeing how kind of flexible that understanding of minimum is. But what conceivable justification is given from a security perspective for this increase in the stockpile? I mean, I understand the defense secretary, had said something about the improved ABM system around Moscow or, you know, is it that they’ve identified new hamlets in North Korea that they’re going to have to target? What rationale is there? 

Nick Ritchie  

As of what has been said to justify this? Nothing. I mean, on the Sunday morning talk show on the BBC, hosted by the political journalist Andrew Marr – Ben Wallace, the Defense Secretary, sort of muttered things about Russian ballistic missile defenses and other novel nuclear weapon systems that Russia is deploying. That’s about it. There’s subsequently been some questions in Parliament, including from some Tories wanting to know what’s the justification here. The Defense Department here issued – a couple of, four or five days after the big Integrated Review – issued us separate Defense Paper that was kind of building out on some of this, but there’s nothing more in there. And Ben Wallace has subsequently said in Parliament, you know, they’re going to see if they can explain these, the reasoning behind this a bit more. And I think you can go two ways on this. You can either follow kind of the culture and practice of nuclear deterrence thought in the UK from kind of the 1970s onwards, continuing into the post-Cold War period, that says that the main the main nuclear threat we have is Russia, and Russia looms very large. The big threat in the Integrated Review – Russia – remains the main nuclear threat. Historically, UK nuclear targeting was based on this phrase that came out in the 1980s of targeting then Soviet centers of power in Moscow. So, you know, it’s been the assumption that UK nuclear targeting has been based on holding at risk, kind of political and military centers of power and command and control in Moscow. It’s not about targeting Russia’s nuclear forces; we don’t have enough to do that in the way that the Russians and the Americans had had and have nuclear targeting plans to attack each other’s nuclear weapons. That’s not the line. That’s not the path that the UK has taken. So that implies then, if you accept that reasoning, and that history, that really the only reason to justify is on a case that sort of the ability or the assuredness with which our nuclear planners think that they can destroy these targets they deem essential to hold at risk has changed somehow. Through hardening of these targets or better missile defenses now or projecting into the future. And therefore, we need more warheads, because we’re gonna need to have more on the submarine that’s on patrol all the time in the Atlantic. So kind of maybe that’s it, but we don’t know.

Metta Spencer  

I’m hearing, as you say, that there is no real strategic rationale for this. It’s all baloney. That really, what seems to be influential here is this is a way of swaggering, this is a symbolic gesture of showing how independent and wonderful old-fashioned Britain is nowadays. And so okay, if I want to ask whether, you know, you really think one is the real explanation, and the other one is negligible? Or whether there’s some sort of secret thinking going on that isn’t clear about the strategic rationale for it. But then, if it is a question of swaggering, did you see this coming? Because you’ve tied it in a way to Brexit? Yes, now that Britain is going to be independent, we can show what how big we are? And if that’s the case, was that in the rhetoric before Brexit or in leading up to Brexit? Are you surprised by this? Did these pro Brexit people talk this way all along and I just hadn’t heard it? Or is this a new development in the rhetoric – the political rhetoric – in Britain?

Rebecca Johnson  

Can I come on to that? I think that’s a great question, Metta. You know, Brexit really was, I mean, again, it was using a lot of advertising slogans, not taking account really of consequences at all. And that’s how Boris played an absolutely significant part in winning that vote. But nuclear weapons really barely came up in it. I mean, I wrote some pieces, arguing the importance of the EU as collective security. And that had far more to, you know, the keeping the peace in in Europe, over these past decades since the Second World War – had far more to do with a bit of the building up of the European Union with its very different kind of common foreign and security policies and using soft power and all of those kinds of ways of looking at it than either Britain’s nuclear weapons; France’s nuclear weapons; or NATO. So, you know, but we were often the ones sort of trying to point some of these things out. So, I don’t think it wasn’t part of that debate then. But I think we have come, we… I think I was not completely surprised that something was pulled out of the hat on nuclear weapons that was wrapped in the flag. Part and for two reasons, really. One is that swaggering is really the right term to be using. Previous leaders have swaggered with nuclear weapons going right back actually many decades. And Boris is a swagger par excellence and nuclear weapons meet his criteria. It’s a very simple thing to kind of wave and everybody thinks we’re big, we’re great, and we can destroy the entire world. Except they don’t think the latter part of that. And so, here’s the other thing that I think needs to be thought about with this, because what I’ve also seen is that because there has been actually quite a lot of news that have been posing that very question: “What on Earth is a strategic need to do this?” And as Nick said, there isn’t one. Then people start saying: “So why are we doing it? Because it’s going to cost money, you know, our economy is shattered both by COVID and by Brexit. It’s going to take a long time to rebuild both of those.” So, are all of our security architecture that we’ve relied on both, you know, in national terms, and in regional terms particularly, are having to be remade in a situation where we have less power; less room to move; less economic clout; and on top of that, Scotland, where, which UK nuclear weapons utterly depend on the two bases in Scotland – there is, there could be one other harbour that’s in Wales, where the submarines might be able to be used; and possibly one in England. But there is no other place that has the right kind of geology and there’s no other place to store the warheads. End. End of. And there’s Scotland, since Brexit really tried to pull away more and more, because what they want now, or what an increasing majority of Scots people want, is to become independent of this, you know, broken UK union and rejoin the EU. I mean, that’s really what they want. They see themselves, along with Ireland, as being able to make a go of it as a smaller country that can, you know, has a lot to contribute in other kinds of ways. And there’s a Scottish election coming up, by the way, in May. So, these come into it. So, something that we should be discussing, is that another of the implications of this integrated review, and particularly of this upping of the, of the ante on the nuclear weapons, is that more people than before, have actually been talking about: “Why does Britain need nuclear weapons at all? Don’t they endanger us more? There’s now this UN treaty, it’s a multilateral treaty. It actually bans all aspects of nuclear weapons. It creates the basic principles to be able to build up how to eliminate nuclear weapons safely and securely. And wouldn’t it be better for Britain to take the lead?” We’ve got lots of technological expertise in verification and nuclear disarmament verification projects – that actually have very little money – but have actually made some very interesting steps. Surely, there’s more jobs now in getting rid of the nuclear weapons and building up other forms of non-nuclear deterrence. And the soft power that we say we have, but actually, we have a very declining part of, and this would be a better use of money and resources. So, these things are kind of juxtaposing at the very point at which the UK suddenly becomes almost a rogue state in terms of undermining the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which was one of its major arguments for opposing the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. Others are saying and you know, the cities are lining up… I was just doing a meeting with Mayors for Peace. The cities in the UK lining up to adopt motions that will support and align themselves with the TPNW. So, these are countervailing, they’re interesting Sometimes when you get a shock of this sort, but we also shouldn’t underestimate Boris’s ability that when he sees some policies is not very popular of doing a U-turn. So, the kind of pressure that’s coming up is also opening doors to raise questions about existing UK policy that really have been difficult to do since that vote in 2016. Both on financial, strategic, and on grounds of real sort of human security and human security ways of doing deterrence. These sorts of things. But also, has raised the specter of Boris Johnson being the person that gets to push the button. We shouldn’t underestimate real concerns about how much can he be trusted not to get it wrong.

Metta Spencer  

I want to go back, if you will, to this issue about Scotland, because that was the thing that surprised me most. Maybe I have a completely wrong impression here in North America. But I had this idea that: “Okay, Scotland may just leave, you know, leave the UK.” And where would you guys be? Where would you put your submarines? People must realize that there’s no place to go? And in that case, you’re already on thin ice, you’re already in a very risky situation. Why would you compound that difficulty? By saying you want even more of the same problem? Am I imagining this – or is it a wrong perception of the way things are? Is there really no real risk that that Scotland will leave? Or are people ignoring… I don’t understand why people aren’t feeling extremely anxious about that as a possible outcome. And it’s a problem that you have to face. 

Rebecca Johnson  

Scottish partners of ICAN of which there are many – and they also engage on things like Don’t Bank on the Bomb, as well as Cities Appeals and things. They actually see this possibility as an argument that feeds into their efforts to get both Scottish independence and through Scottish independence, make it impossible for the UK to carry on with nuclear weapons. And I think this election is going to be fairly crucial in May, to see if the Scottish National Party, together with the Greens can get the kind of majority to call for another referendum. They would have to have, at least according to current situation another referendum to do that. But after Brexit, the pressure for another referendum because of the context in which there was the narrow vote against Scottish independence two years before Brexit – everything changed. And so, you know, we have to see that these are now very much linked in people’s minds. And I think and I don’t know what, how Nick sees this, but I think that together with – as part of the Integrated Review – what I think Boris is also trying to line up is greater commitments that he hopes to be selling as jobs for Scotland, as well as perhaps money for Scotland. These are kind of sprinkled through the Integrated Review in other ways. In one particular issue that Paul would be very interested in, there’s a whole section on an Integrated Space Policy making the UK a meaningful player in space. Since we’ve left the EU, we obviously can’t use the EU facilities for rocket launching, but the UK has a lot of expertise in satellites that have been launched using EU facilities. So here we are, you know that there’s going to be the integrated review says, a commercial launch capability by the EU for the UK, launching British satellites from Scotland. And there are these kinds of things where… but to leave on this, this issue, Metta, I think we honestly don’t know. If there will be a big enough vote for the parties that want independence in May. We’ll be able to judge much better then, but that is definitely the direction of travel. And this is something that Boris doesn’t want to preside over the breakup of the Union. But he may indeed do that just in the way in the same way that David Cameron didn’t want to be presiding over the UK leaving Europe, but in his foolishness and hubris, that’s exactly what he did. And Boris is both foolish and has a great deal of hubris. As well as being like David Cameron, somebody that gets tactics, particularly political tactics to wrong foot his political adversaries, but there isn’t a shred of strategy in him. And you see that in so-called Integrated Review. 

Nick Ritchie  

Particularly, the Tory governments in London are basically making a 50-year bet that Scotland – this is in terms of what would happen to the UK nuclear weapon system; where would it go in the event of Scottish independence – they’ve placed a 50-year bet that Scotland will never and will not vote for independence. Because we’re in the process now of building a replacement for the current Trident System. Starting with these four massively expensive new submarines. New warheads will come later and so on and so forth. But a massive amount of investment in these new submarines are going to be based at Scotland. Now, the first of those is going to be deployed in the early 2030s. And they’re going to be designed with around about a 40-year service life. So that’s taken you out to 2070. And, you know, there’s nowhere else for these things to go, as Rebecca said, particularly the warheads. So, the government is placing a bet that from now until about 2070 Scotland is going to be part of the Union and there won’t be any issues around continuing to use the basis at Faslane and Coulport. And you know what, I wouldn’t bet on that. I wouldn’t bet on the next 10 years, let alone the next half a century. The direction of travel in Scottish politics, in terms of the political fortunes of the Scottish National Party have been in favor of the SMP from about the early 1990s onwards. A stick in there – the Labour vote has collapsed – what was previously a very strong Labour vote has collapsed; and the Tories remain toxic as a political force in Scotland. We don’t see that that changing anytime soon. But the thing, the two things that combine this I think, in terms of this, this kind of Tory, post Brexit politics, is you get this phrasing – which isn’t particular to this government, it goes back to Labour in the 1990s – this framing of Britain in world politics as a force for good and the UK being a kind of a military force for good. And you get that in the international context, but also in the context of kind of union politics. This idea that the union is an unequivocal, intrinsic kind of force for good for all the countries that are in the Union. But the problem with that is that there are, you know, quite a few countries in the world that we think might like the UK that kind of don’t see us as the shining knight in armor. And there are plenty in Scotland, that don’t buy the argument that the union is a force for good for everybody in that union. But you get this kind of this, this rhetoric in Westminster, where it’s it seems to be internalized as a political truth that the UK just is a force for good.

Metta Spencer  

Can you give me an idea of whether or not there’s any prospect for people who think the way you do and who think this isn’t an extremely risky bet they’re making? What could be done to stop what’s on the way? What is the prospect of defeating the whole plan? 

Rebecca Johnson  

It has to be done by civil society. I think with the publication of the Integrated Review, a lot of us, both members of our partners with ICAN and a lot of other think tanks and rethink security groups that are trying to think of security in very different kinds of framings – put in our views as part of the Integrated Review guide and consultation process. And what came out, really didn’t take any of that into account. It very much was… it felt almost personally Boris’s in a way that some of the previous strategic reviews by previous governments were much more kind of measured. This was very much about you know, Great Britain, you know, global Britain. And this notion, which always nauseates me, but punching above our weight. So, I think we have to recognize those of us that don’t live in Scotland have to recognize we can carry on having those dialogues. And, you know, I’m in the process of – I hope – finalizing a written report on the UK and TPNW. Of course, now I have to take this Integrated Review into account in a chapter that I thought I’d finished on UK policy. But and also update the Scottish section, but really, it’s going to be civil society as a whole, all together, but particularly, we are working so closely with Scottish civil society because we do basically recognize that in terms of strategy, the best chance we have to have the UK become a state party to the TPNW is for Scotland to become independent. I think that’s the reality on the ground. And therefore, we put in quite a lot of resources into really supporting that and making sure that the voters know, because the Scottish voters also really don’t like nuclear weapon. They’ve always been the part of the UK that has been least committed, you know, least beguiled by the notion of nuclear weapons wrapped in the Union Jack. And it’s very declined to declining number of jobs associated with that and that’s actually not really going to change. So, they can see better uses for both the great loch side location of Faslane, if they took the nuclear weapons away. They’re thinking about how they would increase jobs there. And also looking at Coulport, which, so for them, it’s a win-win to get rid of the nuclear weapons. 

Metta Spencer  

Sorry, what is Coulport? 

Rebecca Johnson  

Coulport is the nuclear warhead storage facility. It’s very close to Faslane, both of them about 30 to 35 miles northwest of Glasgow. Coulport is built right into the rock, which makes it geologically a slightly better option if you’re going to store a bunch of nuclear warheads. If there is an accident there, there’s one village directly across the loch that would be destroyed. But then it goes out into the Atlantic – and guess who’s the other end of the Atlantic? If there’s an accident from Coulport. I think you’ll find that it’s the Canadian Coast.

Paul Meyer  

I wonder if I could introduce another thought about the Review being a missed opportunity, because as Rebecca just alluded to, there are some important new directions in terms of cyber and space, you know, recognizing that these in a sense are the new power vectors and should require a greater investment. But surely that would have been the time to jettison the old-fashioned symbols of power in the nuclear weapons and to free up the resources to pursue these more contemporary capacities for the projection of force. So, in that way, failed, I think, an important opportunity to readjust in a more rational basis. But you know, I’d appreciate Nick’s or Rebecca’s views on that. 

Rebecca Johnson  

Well, they do have quite a lot on cyber, and as I said, space command and so on. They do recognize all of these things, whether they actually have the money to resource them, as they say, but you’re quite right, that having recognized all of this, and having got quite a good bit of analysis in there about the diversity of the needs for security, they then don’t jettison the highly expensive white elephant in the room of nuclear weapons. They don’t take that opportunity. You’re quite right.

Nick Ritchie  

Yeah, I mean, it’s going back to the previous part of the conversation, Metta, where you asked, you know: “What do we do about this?” And Rebecca, you were talking about civil society. I mean, one thing we can do is continue to point out the contradictions between the overarching framing of world politics and threats and challenges- and how nuclear weapons make sense within that because there are glaring contradictions – and we’ve seen this in past defense reviews in the UK as well. But we are stuck with a mantra that’s become dogma that nuclear weapons are the ultimate insurance policy for the protection and defense of the United Kingdom. The ultimate insurance policy. It’s something that’s trotted out by Blair, Cameron, May, and Johnson. It’s just embedded as a phrase that’s become a dogma, insofar as there’s lots packaged in with that that says, or that equates UK nuclear weapons, the Trident System with protection safety of the realm – and you want protection and safety of the realm, right? Therefore, you need Trident. And you’re questioning why the UK retains nuclear weapons? Well, that means you’re not supporting protection and safety of the Realm. And they’re kind of locked like this. And you see this time and time again, in debates in the House of Commons and engagement with the Ministry of Defense, and so on and so forth. And that needs kind of separating, you see it in another sense, in terms of the difficulties that the Labour Party has, whereby the Tories quite deliberately sort of conflate together support for Trident and the British ability to inflict horrible, horrific nuclear violence on other countries with broader support for our armed forces. So, that it becomes very difficult for Labour and others that oppose British nuclear weapons, to say: “We know we’re against nuclear weapons, but you know, we’re supportive of these aspects of our armed forces” because the Tories and the right-wing press will hammer you and say, if you’re not in support of Trident, then you’re not supporting our armed forces. And that’s really difficult, but that’s where the politics of this is at. You do have this real issue whereby you see in this defense review, as with previous ones, you know, an understanding that the world is messy, deeply interdependent, deeply integrated. We are all on this in facing the same set of global challenges around climate, the climate disaster that we’re facing, on food, on disease, on poverty, on inequality that we’re going to have to work together on. And at the same time, you’re framing these big important states like China and Russia, that we need to work with, as people that in order to survive, seemingly, we need to have this ability to threaten them with nuclear annihilation. 

Metta Spencer  

Nick, you’ve given the final pep talk. Exactly what we need is exactly that point to be made as we wind up our conversation. That we’re all on the same planet and definitely our interdependence is increasing, if anything. 

Rebecca Johnson  

Metta, can I just add – because you said it would be possible… I also want to call on Paul and people like him – and recognize that it’s precisely, you know, people in the UK and allied countries who can also have some real influence.  You know, Boris Johnson does do U-turns when he thinks that he’s become unpopular with it. And I think it’s really important for… Paul, please keep up your editorials. I think they’re great. We could do with some more of those from, you know, all of the Allies across Europe and beyond. Really pointing out that the UK, if it takes this forward, is undermining its existing legal obligations.

Metta Spencer  

I am so grateful to both and to Paul and everybody for this conversation. I hope people listen and take heart from the challenges that we are all facing. Thank you all.

Rebecca Johnson  

Thank you for organizing this and inviting us. It is great to have this opportunity.

T117. Radioactive Mayak

T117. Radioactive Mayak

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number:  117
Panelists:  Nadezhda Kutepova, Gordon Edwards, and Robert (Bob) del Tredici
Host: Metta Spencer

Date Aired:  22 June 2020
Date Transcribed and Verified:  4 May 2021
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits: Adam Wynne

Note: Please note that this transcript has been edited.

Intro/Outro  

Welcome. This is Talk About Saving the World. A weekly series of discussions sponsored by Peace Magazine and Project Save the World. Every week, we join some friends and experts at our respective webcams, to talk about how to prevent one or more of the six most serious global threats to humankind: war and weapons, especially nuclear; global warming; famine; pandemics; massive radiation exposure through something like a reactor explosion; and cyber-attacks. Our host is a retired University of Toronto sociology professor, Metta Spencer. 

Metta Spencer  

Hi, I’m Metta Spencer, and I’m in Toronto, but I’m going to have a very geographically diverse kind of conversation today with people who have a great deal of concern about the effects of the contamination of radioactivity on the human body. And these are all in various ways people who had experience with this. The person I got to first that I want to speak with most is Nadezhda Kutepova, or as she says in France, they say it the way we would in Canada – Kutepova. Nadezhda is from a part of Russia near Chelyabinsk, where there’s an installation called Mayak. And that seems to be the main place where the Soviets and I guess still the Russian state, produce their nuclear weapons and plutonium and reprocessing and a lot of other very, very, very dangerous things. So there have been terrible catastrophes, very bad accidents in the region. Two other people here with me, also have very sustained, long-term interest in these issues. One is Gordon Edwards and the other is Bob del Tredici. Both Gordon and Bob are in Montreal, right?

Robert (Bob) del Tredici 

Yes, correct.

Metta Spencer  

And Bob del Tredici is a photographer and he has made almost a career or maybe indeed a career of photographing radiation risk sites. Hanford, Los Alamos and he even tried to go to Mayak in Russia and got as close as Chelyabinsk, where he was able to take some photos that he’ll share with us briefly. Now, I want to say hello to Nadezhda, in Paris. Hi Nadezhda.

Nadezhda Kutepova  

Hi Metta. Hi Toronto.

Metta Spencer  

Wonderful to see you. You know, you’ve had an amazing career. I believe you’re really a refugee from Russia, because of threats against your life and your wellbeing for exposing things that the Russian government did not want known. Tell us about it.

Nadezhda Kutepova  

I was born in a Soviet secret nuclear city, which was named Chelyabinsk-65. At the time of my birth, my grandmother was a first-generation engineer at the Mayak nuclear plant. She arrived in 1948 with her daughter, my mother. And my father, he was a liquidator of the Kyshtym accident explosion in 1957. When I was a child, I never heard about radiation or nuclear or the nuclear plant. I knew that my father was working like an engineer at the plant. And my mother, she is working like a doctor at the plant. So, when I grew up, first of all, I lost my father. He died from cancer when I was 13. Then I became a nurse. It was a choice because my mother was a doctor. But then, after years, I changed my direction. I graduated from the Ural State University as a sociologist. Then I organized the NGO, when one day I knew and understood the truth about Mayak. For me, it was a big surprise. It was a big surprise to know how it’s possible to lie openly for a long-time to people. And that’s why I created my NGO, which was named the Planet of Hopes. From 2000 until 2015, I defended people in the local, international, and also regional courts. We won many cases. But we also lost many cases. That’s why we have some ways of intimidation from the state. It was in 2004, 2009, and the last wave which were in 2015, where my NGO was recognized as a foreign agent and I was accused of industrial espionage against the state [of Russia]. I escaped to Paris.  I became a refugee with my kids. It was not easy. But it’s already been five years, our time in France. Last year, I graduated from Sorbonne University’s Faculty of Law. And this year, I began little by little to go back to my theme, to my subject, my job, which I always love, and which people of our region always need. Because compared to Chernobyl and the Chernobyl accident, Mayak continues to work, continues to produce nuclear waste, and continues to contaminate the area. And we still have people who live near the nuclear [contaminated] river and the people who have second – and today, third generations – who suffer from different diseases. So I would like to help them.

Metta Spencer  

Well, I saw videos of the work that you were doing while you were still there. You had an office and people would come in and you would say that you had tried to put together a legal case. But that you didn’t – in most cases you couldn’t do much for them, right? Let’s go back to 1957. Because I think you said your father had been exposed to radiation in that accident? I bet very few people who are watching this ever heard of this enormous accident that took place in 1957? What was it that happened then? And how did your father suffer from the effects?

Nadezhda Kutepova  

To tell about this accident, we should begin from the dumping of nuclear waste from the production of plutonium into the Techa River. Because, you know, the first plutonium production technologies included producing many, many tons of nuclear waste of different types – high level, middle level, and low level. And then – from the first moment, from 1949, maybe 1948 – that nuclear waste – liquid nuclear waste – was dumped into the natural river, which was named the Techa River. And near this river, in the beginning of the 1950s, there were 39 villages. The nearest villages were just 7 kilometers away [from Mayak’s dumping]. In the middle of 1950s, the doctors and scientists who were working at Mayak were also serving the populations identified as being at high risk of mortalities, birth defects, and leukemia. The doctors and scientists said that Mayak should stop dumping high level nuclear waste into the river. In 1951, Mayak stopped dumping high level nuclear waste into the Techa River and began to store it in underground storage tanks. It was a big metal tank where they put the liquid nuclear waste. I read the memories, recollections, and testimonies of people who said it was like [note: unclear audio – potentially “euphoria”] and they did everything very good there and that it was not at all a bad situation. So, they did not really control this. And the equipment which they were using to make measurements was from the chemical industry. So, in the beginning of 1957, the workers of the plant – it was Plant 25 – told the head of Mayak that there was a problem with an underground tank. The tank was hot and had no water for cooling. However, there was no reaction from Mayak. And on 29 September 1957, the workers saw that the tank was very hard and very hot. This was a sign that something especially bad was happening. So, they began to call the head manager of Mayak and in this moment the explosion happens.  At the time of the explosion, nobody was in the adjacent buildings and officially – and I checked many sources – no one was killed because most of the people were not in the immediate area of the explosion. But there were many disruptions from the explosion and there was a huge contamination area. And in this area, there were other plants, because Mayak is not just one plant, it is many plants with different roles. And this plant [where the explosion occurred] was a nuclear waste plant. Now, the plant is known as a reprocessing plant. Multiple plants in the area were contaminated, as well as military units and prisoner camps. Many nearby buildings were part of the GULAG prison system. The explosion launched nuclear waste upwards for 1 kilometer and released 20 million curies – officially it was 18 million curies – into the area around Mayak. The official cause of the explosion was attributed to high temperatures in the underground storage reservoir which were caused by the evaporation of water and the nuclear waste producing gas which exploded, akin to a chemical reaction. Some versions say it was a chain reaction, but this was not confirmed as a list of the full and specific contents of the reservoir was never made public.  So, the official version is that it was a chemical explosion. On 29 September 1957, my father was living in Sverdlovsk – a neighbouring region, now part of Yekaterinburg. He was 19 and was a student at a local radio-technical, it was like a lyceum. The next day after the accident, on 30 September 1957, he was mobilized as a Komsomolets [Komsomol] – a service organization of Young Communists – to liquidate the by-products and consequences of the accident. I learned all this information in 1991 when we received official documents about his participation. He died in 1985. I never heard any information about this from him directly. And even when he was in his last years and dying – and he was ill from 1983 and died in 1985 – he never talked about radiation. I heard my mother – who was a doctor – talking with her colleagues about the cancer, but nothing else. 

Metta Spencer  

Did she understand or did they both understand that he was dying of the effects of that explosion 30 years later or so?

Nadezhda Kutepova  

Yes, I suppose my mom knew exactly, because she was working in the special hospital for Mayak’s workers. But my father, I don’t know, because from one side, everybody knew – from the workers of Mayak – that there was an accident. There was contamination, but they never saw or heard about the [note: unclear audio – potentially ‘dangerous environment and doses’]. And at this time, the Soviet medical system did not tell someone it was cancer when they were ill. So, it was – and I did not prepare to show you this – but I have one document of my father’s that I can show you. It is a document from 1985 where it is written that he died from the ‘common disease.’ He was disabled from the ‘common disease.’ And the ‘common disease’ – what is this? It is not an official classification or nomination for any sickness. It was a secret name for the illnesses connected to radiation. I understood this many years later.  And in 2007, I made efforts and finally received the document – it was an expert council decision – that my father’s colon cancer was officially connected with his participation in the liquidation of the accident in 1957. 

Metta Spencer  

It fits not only the Russian situation, but things that I’ve read about the lying that states do to the people who work in these places elsewhere. The people who worked at Hanford were also exposed to terrible effects and we’re not told the truth about it. Gordon, you know, you’re an expert on radiation. Any comments or insight on this? 

Gordon Edwards  

The liquid that was in the tank that exploded, is was an acid solution, because in order to get the plutonium out of the used nuclear fuel… plutonium doesn’t exist in nature. It’s created inside each nuclear reactor as it operates. But along with the plutonium, there are hundreds of other fiercely radioactive materials which are very biologically damaging, such as cesium 137, which lasts for a 30-year half-life, which means it’s around for many centuries after it’s created. And other things, which have much longer half-lives, like plutonium itself, which has a 24 000-year half-life. And many of these materials, they all have different pathways through the body. But the one thing that distinguishes them from most ordinary materials in nature, is that they are radioactive, which means the atoms themselves are unstable, and they explode. Inside the body and outside the body, the atoms are exploding. And they’re giving off damaging shrapnel you might say, which damages the DNA molecules and causes things like cancer, and other diseases as well. And the level of radioactivity is enormous in the liquid waste, because basically, they’re taking the most intensely radioactive material on Earth, which is the irradiated nuclear fuel, and then dissolving it and putting it into a liquid form. So that when this chemical explosion occurs, it sends this material up into the air over a very, very wide area, as we have been told. And many villages were totally evacuated, and the people never returned to those many of those villages. And they’re… even now today, there is a large area, which is excluded from any visitors because of the level of contamination which still exists in this area. And that’s directly from this 1957 accident. Now, the, although some of the Western intelligence agencies like the CIA, apparently knew about this explosion, but they said not a word about it. And it wasn’t until a Russian biologist named Medvedev came to England. And he just happened to mention this accident in the course of writing another article. And he did not know that it was completely secret. And so, he was surprised. He was astonished at the response to his article when he mentioned this accident. And he then went back and wrote a book called Nuclear Disaster in the Urals, which explained much more detail about this mammoth explosion. And this is when the existence of this huge incident in which much more radiation was released than was released from Chernobyl, even. The Chernobyl accident was simply a single reactor with the core of that single reactor. Some of that material wasn’t was given off into the atmosphere, a fraction of it. But in the case of this tank, there were many years’ worth of reactor operation in the one tank, and so the material that was available to be released was far greater than the material that was released during the Chernobyl explosion. The results of that are still very evident today. And as we have been told, the plant continues to operate. And they continue to produce the same types of materials inside the plant, although they’re not exploding and being released in vast amounts, and nevertheless, they’re being released in small amounts routinely all the time. So that’s still going on. 

Metta Spencer 

Bob del Tredici, I think you have a photo of a tissue in the lung. Let me get back to when you’re ready, just go ahead and put it up. Oh, there you go. Uh huh.  

[Bob Del Tredici shows photo on screen.]

Robert (Bob) del Tredici  

Okay, this is an article of plutonium in lung tissue. It was injected into an ape as an experiment. And what’s interesting about it, it’s alpha radiation from plutonium and alpha [radiation] doesn’t travel very far at all. But in that small radius there, the cells that are within that are getting serious bombardment. That’s 48 hours’ worth of alpha rays you’re looking at.

Gordon Edwards  

I might mention in this connection that many people are unaware of the fact that this alpha radiation is not an external hazard. It’s a type of radiation unlike gamma radiation which penetrates from a distance. The alpha radiation must get inside your body to do its damage. But they are of course, plentifully available in the liquid wastes. So, when the liquid waste explodes, external and internal emitters are given off. But some of the most dangerous radioactive materials of the 20th century, such as radon gas, radium dial painters, people have heard of that; plutonium; uranium itself; and polonium what was used to murder Alexander Litvinenko in London, England; these are all alpha emitting materials. And many people are unaware of the fact that these are extraordinarily deadly once they get inside the body. Much more so than x-rays or gamma rays even.

Metta Spencer  

Now, Nadezhda tell me about the people who were exposed to this. What was the general effect? Your father lives some years. And he didn’t get sick right away, right?  But what did you find out about the general health effects of these villages that were contaminated? They eventually moved people away, right? 

Nadezhda Kutepova  

There were two types of population. First of all was the population which were living in the closest city. Officially, on 29 September 1957, the wind was blowing in a different direction than the city. So officially, the area of the closest city – which serves Mayak – was not contaminated. Another area – the area surrounding the Mayak City and Mayak Plant – we lost 23 villages. And the people from those villages were not warned about the accident, about the explosion, or about the contamination. And during the first week after the explosion, 4 villages were evacuated. But at this time, it was a state secret and people were not informed. They were told that the doctors and scientists said it was poisonous. Following the explosion, 2 scientific institutes were created. 1 was in Chelyabinsk and was for studying about half of the population in the area surrounding Mayak. And the other was inside the closest city, which was for studying the Mayak population – the health of the Mayak workers and the population of Ozersk. So, for many years – until 1989 -when the information was classified, nobody knew about the scientific research. You could not find this information. In the early 1990s, the institutions published many articles and information about the contamination, their scientific research, and about health. Also in 1993, they signed the first law about social defense and the rights of the afflicted and suffering populations – then referring to the workers. The list of diseases which were officially connected, it was the list which we received from the Chernobyl accident. There were many – maybe 30 – diseases which were connected during the early 1990s. Then the state began cutting the list. They cut it; cut it; cut it. And now there are only 5 types of diseases. First of all, its different types of cancers – including leukemia and other cancers; and also, a ‘chronic nuclear disease’ and genetic disease. But at the same time, if we try to find real or official information about the health consequences, it’s very difficult. And I’ll explain why: it is because the Russian system of gathering statistics – how do you say it – is very tricky. First of all, people from the local villages could be sent to different hospitals which did not put their data or statistics in the database for the Mayak Contamination Area. People were sent to a hospital in a different district. And when I tried to find information, I could not find it because it was not registered. 

Metta Spencer  

Well, what do you think it was? Were they deliberately trying to hide it? Or was it that they didn’t collect it in a form that would be useable in any way?

Nadezhda Kutepova  

It was not collectible and I think there were also orders to eliminate this information from the archives. It was very easy in Soviet times to just order information be eliminated and then you have no evidence. Then we look at how the medical system was organized in this very poor district in the 1950s. When irradiated people arrived at the local hospital, the doctors knew nothing about the situation. They could be diagnosed with internal diseases that had the same symptoms. So, the doctors who were serving the irradiated patients and those from the radioactively contaminated areas were unable to register the disease as a radiation-related illness. It was instead registered as a usual [common] disease. So officially, there were no people with radiation-related disease or illness. At the same time, for example, if we are looking at the documents from the 1990s. These are the earliest reports published by the institutions. It was the Gorbachev Report – Glasnost – the opening of information. We know from this report, that the population of the nearest village – Metlino – which was only 7 kilometers from where high-level nuclear waste was dumped – had a population of 6407 in 1956. This population suffers from chronic nuclear diseases.  If you try to find this information today, nothing. It is all scientific research, yet no mention of anyone with chronic nuclear disease. And I would like to ask: how is it possible to falsify information? Both in 1991 and today. 

Metta Spencer  

Oh, okay. So, Gorbachev says yes, you can find out and for a while it becomes visible. And then somebody says, no, you can’t. Do you know exactly how that came about? That they suddenly began hiding it again? And also, tell me how you got motivated? Because at some point, you discovered that you’d been deceived all your life. And you decided… you got motivated to actually help people. How did that come about? How did you make that discovery? 

Nadezhda Kutepova  

It was that we were very patriotic. We were pioneers and I was a Kosmomol. However, I had never thought about the Outlands, or radiation, or the local populations. For me, it was, you know what I saw in my childhood. It was a big difference between their level of life because in our city [Ozersk], we had everything. Any food, any clothes, anything.  But when I visited them- 

Metta Spencer  

I’m sorry, but these were privileges given to the people working in this dangerous place?

Nadezhda Kutepova  

Yes.

Metta Spencer  

But they were not told that it was dangerous?  

Nadezhda Kutepova  

Yes.

Metta Spencer  

They were just given extra benefits. 

Nadezhda Kutepova  

Yes. People will tell you that it was not because of the benefits due to the dangerous work, but because what we were doing was important to the state. The things that we were doing was very important for our security and that is why we have never failed. So, I visited my grandma in Sverdlovsk and there was nothing in the magazines. I was surprised. And I asked my mom: Why? She explained that we were doing something special for the state and that’s why the state cares more about us than the other- and non- inhabitants of the Soviet Union. And even when the information was open in 1989, I did not pay attention to this, because at that time I was a student of a medical school and I was young. Also, in our city there was a special ideology for us. When the information was opened – and for example, when we first saw my father’s documents – the adults explained to us that we created a nuclear bomb because it was necessary to fight against the United States and if we did not create it, we could have already been killed. So, we did everything. We did cause contamination, but it was for the state. Our lives were not important. Only state secrets and the state’s goals were important. And I took it like it was. You know, when you see something from childhood, it looks normal. Then when I had graduated university as a sociologist, I was participating in an environmental conference and it was the first time I saw an official from our city. It was the head of an environmental department who made an open speech and open report from the tribunal. He talked about the accident of 1957; about the dumping in the Techa River; about Lake Karachay; and even about current contamination because there is strong present-day contamination. I was surprised. And I asked him: How is it possible in our City that we do not know about this? We don’t talk about this. And about the forests. We were told the forests were limited [off limits], but this was not true. Because when you arrive, you see many babushka grandmothers who are selling mushrooms and berries and who are working in local forests. And I asked, how is it possible that the environmental service knows about the contamination, but allows people to harvest and sell the mushrooms? And he told me: “In our city, everyone knows everything. So nobody’s interesting.” and that it was usual for us. Then I asked my mom: What is happening? What happened to my grandmother who died from cancer 7 years before my dad? What happened to my father who died from cancer in 1985? And she told me about the nuclear accident; and that yes, it was true, that they talked and all these years he knew about this and did not tell me about this. She told me it was a state secret. It was impossible. If we opened this state secret, we could be sent to prison. She also told me the tragic story of my father. His marriage with my mother was his second marriage. His first marriage was in 1958, immediately after the accident. They had a daughter – my sister – who was born with a brain disease and who died young.  He suffered all his life from this, because he divorced her. She ended up in the psychiatric clinic. And my mother told me that after the accident, we saw many kids like this in our city because scientists understood that radiation influenced spermatozoon production. So, it was the influence of radiation on their reproductive system and that is why they had a child like that. It’s a contract now. The general rules in Mayak are that if the man wants to have a child, he should leave the dangerous place and the plant for six months before in order to make a baby. So, this information changed me because for me, it is a total injustice. How is it possible that they lie, lie, lie all the time? And also, you know, the feeling of deep injustice for local populations because in our City we have the benefits for this dangerous life. It was a little bit voluntary. But for the local population who was living before Mayak – 100 years before – and to receive this problem, like the chemical plant that contaminated everything; which destroyed and confiscated their land; which destroyed their lives and broke the destiny of their children. For me, this was very difficult and I told myself that I should create the NGO to create something that could – I don’t know – defend my grandparents, and if I could not do something for them, then I should do it for these people. It was justified. 

Metta Spencer  

Bless you. Bless you. 

Gordon Edwards  

If I could just say a word about the mushrooms. Because of the fact that wild boars eat a lot of mushrooms, you know, the pigs, unearth truffles and eat truffles, they love mushrooms. In both Germany and Czechoslovakia and Poland, even today, the boars when people go boar hunting, the boar meat is much too radioactive to consume for human consumption. And so, there’s alerts from the governments of both countries, that if hunters kill a boar, they should not eat the meat and the government will actually pay the money for losing the value of the meat that they have hunted. And even in the Fukushima area as well, the boars are now hundreds of times more contaminated than is allowed for human consumption. And the reason for this is because the same materials that were released from those tanks that exploded in 1957, were also released from Chernobyl and Fukushima. These are the high-level radioactive waste, which are released during an accident of any time. And even though they were released in smaller amounts at Chernobyl and Fukushima. Nevertheless, that contamination is very long lived. It’s now been 35 years since Chernobyl and yet those wild boars are still too radioactive for human consumption. Sheep farmers in Wales and Northern England were prevented – for more than 20 years – to sell the sheep meat on the open market for human consumption because of radioactivity from Chernobyl. So, understanding that situation, you can transfer this back to Mayak and to Chelyabinsk. And you realize that even there, there was much greater contamination It was a longer time ago, but still a half-life of 30 years means you have to wait 60 years before the amount of radioactivity has reduced by one quarter, down to one quarter of what it was originally. And you have to wait 300 years before it’s down to 1000, a factor of 1000. So, and that’s only for 30-year half-life, when you have things that have 100s of years of half-life or 1000s of years of half-life, then essentially, we’re talking about eternity here, we’re talking about perpetual contamination. And it’s the consumption of these contaminated foods that that leads to the internal radiation. Also, there is well known a well-known feature, which is important to understand, when you see somebody smoking a cigarette, you don’t see them dropping down dead, right after smoking the cigarette. The same thing with radiation, the effects are cumulative, and they take time, and there’s something called a latency period. For different kinds of cancers, the latency period is different. For example, for leukemia, it takes about four or five years before you start seeing an increase in the leukemia. For lung cancer, it takes 20 or 30 years before you start seeing a real increase in in lung cancer. So, the body incorporates these harmful materials, the harm is done to the cells inside the body. And then that harm is replicated by the normal replication of cells. So, the harm grows inside the body. Even though the radiation doesn’t grow, the harm done by the radiation does.

Metta Spencer  

I’m struck by the fact that they glorified the work. You know, you were such heroes doing this work. Bob del Tredici, I think you’ll have a photo of a of a monument they made to extol the people who made the atomic weapons. Do you have that photo?

Robert (Bob) del Tredici  

Yes, right in downtown Chelyabinsk and there’s Igor Kurchatov on a statue there. There is a splitting of a single atom. And the wavy lines around it represent the energy released when the atom is broken like that. And then those broken, broken pieces fall to Earth in the form of fallout.

Gordon Edwards  

And those broken pieces of uranium atoms that constitute hundreds of different radioactive materials that are created by the splitting of the atom. They’re mostly broken pieces of uranium atoms. That’s one category. And the other category is things which are heavier than uranium, because of absorbing neutrons. That’s where plutonium comes from – and americium and curium. So, there’s materials which are smaller than uranium atoms, which are very dangerous, called the fission products. And then there’s materials which are heavier than uranium atoms, and they’re man made, human made materials, which are very bad, particularly inside the body.

Metta Spencer  

Well, so here we are, on the one hand, you have the celebration of the heroes who made the atomic and nuclear weapons; and then the continuation of poisoning them as they go, even to this day gathering mushrooms and berries and so on. In her recent book, Kate, you can take it down, Bob, thank you [Bob closes photo.]. In her recent book, Kate Brown was talking about, she herself went out into the contaminated areas, and picked berries with people because that’s how the local people make a little pocket money or quite a bit of their income actually, from buying, or rather picking blueberries near in the area of where the fallout from Chernobyl took place. And the issues mentioned in these blueberries, if they’re too contaminated, they, they dilute them by mixing them with less contaminated berries. So, they’re down below the threshold that can be accepted, and then they sell it to the EU. So, the people in Europe are eating this and don’t know it. I don’t know, are they still… Nadezhda, do they do the people still go around these villages – your grandmother picked blueberries and mushrooms and stuff -does that continue? 

Nadezhda Kutepova  

Yes. Because the population of the area are really poor, so they have no choice. And also, the government’s position is a little bit tricky. On one side, if you take the documents and literature, there is lots of information – an enormous amount of information – about the Mayak accident and the contamination. But if you go into the local forest, you can see – maybe, if you can find it – a very old, little tablet [sign] with the symbol of radiation and a warning about it being very bad. It’s written that it is dangerous to get the mushrooms and berries. And if you’re looking at it, you think maybe it was many years ago that the warning tablet [sign] was put there. Maybe now it’s not dangerous. So, then I was talking about this with the local government and with the officials of Mayak, I asked: Why are you doing so? Their official position is that: We opened information and then we prevented [warned] people and if people ignore this information, they take the responsibility on themselves and it is not our problem. I said: Maybe it’s better to put a good sign to show that this is dangerous. And, you know, the answer was that: We do not want to have a bad reputation for our region – if we put this sign, which is very visible, everyone will film them and say that there is very high radioactive contamination across the Ozersk region; we will lose all investments. Because everyone wants to have investments. And also, I would like to add to the plutonium subject of the accident of 1957: the first time that I think I paid attention – usually when they publish information about contamination, it’s always maps of cesium and strontium and never plutonium. And I have found just one book, which was published in 1995, which says that 400 grams of plutonium was in the tank that exploded. So, we can say, of course, plutonium contamination exists after the accident. Also, there is contamination from current activities of Mayak. The problem is, and please correct me if I am wrong, is that we cannot differentiate between plutonium from the 1957 accident and plutonium from current activities – as it’s all just plutonium, which is an artificial element. I think that it is not mapped because they are afraid of the contamination being for 24 000 years. It means forever. They are afraid that the people will be seriously and serially contaminated with plutonium and not be happy. 

Gordon Edwards  

Just to be scientifically precise about this: it is true that most of the plutonium was removed, because they wanted the plutonium for the bombs. So, the purpose of dissolving the material originally in acid was to remove plutonium. So, a lot of the plutonium would be gone.  However, there are other materials which are even more toxic than plutonium, which are even heavier than petroleum, such as americium. Now americium is dozens of times more toxic than plutonium. And it doesn’t it doesn’t have quite the same half-life, but it’s still very, very long and many, many, many centuries and 1000s of years. So, although plutonium itself may be reduced, in the tank, the other things would not be reduced. The americium, the neptunium, the curium the einsteinium – these heavier than uranium atoms are all exceedingly toxic. And we find here in Canada, for example, that they often tell people here in Canada talking about misinformation, the mining companies will tell people that: “Well don’t worry about radioactivity, because we’re taking uranium away, we’re helping you by removing uranium.” But the thing is, there are things far more toxic than uranium, which are left behind. 85% of the radioactivity is left behind in the sandy residues. And it has a half-life of over 100,000 years. So oftentimes, the industry will lie, by telling you part truths, they’ll tell you half the truth, but not the whole truth. And so, I just wanted to be careful about that question about plutonium, because it would be true that a plutonium would have been reduced, but not absent, they would still be there. And the other things would still be there without any reduction at all. There was a nuclear physicist in the United States who became a renowned medical doctor. His name is John Gofman. And he said that radiation damage and death is; he says it’s the perfect crime. It’s the perfect crime because we know people are dying. We know who’s doing it. We know what the murder weapon is. And yet, in individual cases, you can’t prove it. So, it’s the perfect crime. And I think that that’s a very important way to look at it. If you have time for a brief little story, the reason why, which led to this remark by John Gofman was that he was hired to disprove something that Nobel Prize winning chemist Linus Pauling said, he said that 96,000 Americans were dying every year as a result of the bomb test, the atomic bomb tests that were being conducted in Nevada. 96,000 Americans per year. And when they heard this, the industry was horrified and said, we’ve got to shut this man up. We’ve got to prevent him. We’ve got to counteract what he’s saying. So, they hired John Gofman to discredit Linus Pauling. And after seven years of work on radiation effects and the health effects of radiation, John Gofman came to the conclusion that it was only about 32,000 Americans that were dying every year. And he thought that he had done a good job because he cut it down to 1/3 of what Linus Pauling said, but of course, that was not the point. They wanted him to say there were no deaths, and he wouldn’t do that. And this is why he became a fierce opponent of nuclear power and even wrote a book called Population Controls for Radioactive Pollution.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah, kill them off. Yeah, well, what I wonder Nadezhda, you organize. But here in Canada, and around the world, I think there are local groups that have organized about a particular risk of radiation from a reactor in your area, or maybe tritium being dumped here or there. Or local places where organizations form. But I don’t know… I don’t think there’s enough contact among these separate groups, for example, would your group at Mayak have been in touch with the people organizing in Kazakhstan, in and around Semipalatinsk? You know, they, they had their own health issues, and somebody I guess, must have helped to begin to organize them. But were the people in various parts of Russia who were concerned about the same health threats in touch with each other? And could you sustain any kind of, you know, either global or even national organization of people opposed to nuclear radiation?

Nadezhda Kutepova  

You know, that, in the middle of the 1990s, maybe in the beginning of the 1990s, there was a very strong group called Movement for Nuclear Safety which was headed by Natalia Mironova. We organized in Chelyabinsk and she organized all the contact there. There was a very strong network of different NGOs who were working near the Russian nuclear site. The problem – and also with the Kazakh groups – is that Russia is a huge county and there is significant distance between the cities and the different populations. So, it takes a lot of resources, a lot of research, and a lot of money to travel from one city to another city. During this time, there was no Internet or similar modes of communication. Also, ROSATOM – the Russian Nuclear Agency – understood very quickly that they should fight against anti-nuclear activists and against human rights activists. So, they organized this very large department of public relations with a huge budget and they began to make a campaign about clean nuclear energy that had no bad results of contamination. The power capacities of the NGO and the State were not the same. And also, after Putin came to power, the state’s fight against civil society and the NGO became much stronger. That’s why many NGOs died. Many activists were intimidated. And there’s a historical memory from the time of the GULAG system that has instilled fear in many people. When you begin this type of activism activities, you should be ready for immediate intimidation. You need to have real resistance in your soul to resist against the pressure. It’s not easy. It’s not easy for people. It’s not easy for populations. And the problem, which I would note regarding Mayak, is that when the information about the accidents were first opened, the population already had a habit to live with this. And as a sociologist, I can tell you, the populations living with the contamination have a habit where they do not pay attention to it. For example, in my city of Ozersk, each family had 2 or 3 members who had died of cancer, but nobody pays attention to this because for us it is normal from childhood and has always been so. In the case of when the accident happened, suddenly everybody is looking here and the reaction is immediate. However, with an accident that has a long time period, it’s a little bit trickier. The public consciousness stops being concerned about it. Do you understand what I am saying? That’s why. And the second reason is that the people who are really ill – and their parents if its kids; or themselves – they cannot be occupied by the question of their rights, because they are ill. They have no power. They stay in bed.  And furthermore, the population which were contaminated is very rural, poor, and are a national minority. Sometimes they do not speak very good Russian. These places are situated 200 kilometers from the main city. The area is littered and scattered with these communities. There is a feeling of no hope. No hope. So, what can we do? I do not know the term for this feeling in English, but it’s “What can I do?” It’s a continuous feeling. Always present. 

Metta Spencer  

Okay, now you had to leave because you were being intimidated. 

Nadezhda Kutepova  

Yes. 

Metta Spencer  

 And you fled to Paris with your children? And… but now what I wonder is, to what extent is it still dangerous for anybody to try to make the people of Mayak aware of their situation, as you were doing? If you try to reach out to them today, are you in touch with them? Is it dangerous for them? I think you’re safe, because you’re out of the country. But is it… do you put them in any jeopardy by being in touch with them and trying to make them more aware of their situation? 

Nadezhda Kutepova  

I stayed in contact with the people for all these years. There are some people who refuse to have contact with me because they are afraid and are scared of the government. But there are some people who stay in touch with me and who I continue to help and who I receive information from. However, it is now more difficult – for example – to contact them with a journalist, because each time the journalist arrives, the local government presses them for this contact. They ask them: Why did you give the interview? Especially if it’s foreign journalists. They say: You are trying to do something against Russia. It is a time of patriotism in Russia. After this, I had some people refuse to give interviews to journalists. And also, the authorities continue to denigrate me in the local press, especially after the story of ruthenium contamination in 2017 when I was the first whistleblower to say the contamination was from Mayak. Mayak did not recognize their responsibility for the contamination in 2017. Yet, just yesterday there was a fresh article from scientists who said again that it was Mayak and that we are waiting [for them to acknowledge this]. How many years will they continue to lie? For the accident of 1957, it was 32 years. For the Techa [river contamination], it was much more.  And for the ruthenium, it’s already been 3 years. How many years will we wait? 

Metta Spencer  

Well, yes, and of course, in steering the question of initially to the 1957 event, which I’ve sort of skipped over everything that’s happened since then, of course, it’s never stopped being a risky place. It’s continuously producing dangers for people. And I don’t know how close you were to Lake Karachay. Is that connected with Mayak? I was hearing people talk about going to Lake Karachay and it’s a sort of place where if you stood on the bank of the lake for just a few minutes, you’d get a lethal dose just by standing there. And I gather that a lot of that lake has dried up and some of the material has blown away and so on. Is that connected to Mayak? How close are they? 

Nadezhda Kutepova  

Yes, I explained that. As I mentioned, in 1951 Mayak stopped dumping high level nuclear waste in the Techa River. And they also stopped dumping mid-level nuclear waste in the Techa River. However, they began to dump mid-level nuclear waste into Lake Karachay. Lake Karachay is part of a system of lakes which are technically reservoirs. It is situated within the boundaries of Mayak. If you want to go there, it’s impossible for both citizens and officers because Mayak has its own barrier defense system. It’s a common defense system alongside each object’s own defense system inside the Mayak area. Through human activities, Lake Karachay is now separated from the other lakes. We try to believe this.  They made the researchers say that Lake Karachay is not connected to the other lakes that are situated in the area. These lakes were formerly – and still are – connected to the Techa River. Lake Karachay is a little bit separated, but in the same general area. The name for the place is now Reservoir 9. Officially, it has low contamination and officially they covered Lake Karachay with [concrete] blocks in 2016. The problem is, first of all, we do not know how much radioactivity is in Lake Karachay. In 1989, they announced it was 120 million curies. But when I checked, they continue to say it was the same level of radiation despite continuing to dump mid-level nuclear waste after 1989. Each year 1 million curies of nuclear waste are dumped. So, I suppose it should be 150 million curies in Lake Karachay. The second thing is that it is now an underground lake. Yesterday, I read the official documents that it is a 20 square kilometer underground lake. Officially they control it, but nobody comes to check it.  

Metta Spencer  

Before this pandemic took place, I was organizing an event where some Japanese were coming from – people who were concerned about Fukushima – and they were coming to Toronto. We were going to have an organizing meeting, an afternoon where we would hook up by Zoom with people all over the world who had been part of local or academic projects, to oppose radioactive contamination. And that was well along in planning. But of course, we’re not allowed to meet now. And I don’t know whether we will ever do such thing. But we could by Zoom, we could reach out and actually hold a meeting where people from various parts of the world such as yourself, or people like Trisha Pritikin whose career is very similar to yours in that she’s also a lawyer. She was also the victim of Hanford. And she wrote a book about it and so on. All of these people could and I know, Gordon, that you’ve just done a book review of Frank von Hippel’s book. And, you know, I’m sure that Frank was, in fact, he agreed to participate in, in this meeting. So, we could have a meeting for people to create kind of a network of people around the world who want to stay in touch and work insofar as it’s possible, work together to oppose radioactive contamination. Do you think that anybody in France or Russia that you’re in touch with, or any of the groups, Nadezhda, would be able or interested in participating in such a meeting?

Nadezhda Kutepova  

Yes, I think. I think this network can be a very important. Why? Because everybody from Ozersk knows the truth about the local situation. When we have people who know the truth, it is much easier to work. Because, you know, for example, when Mayak people or any nuclear officials tell you something about Mayak, you can ask me, is it true or not? And I’m telling you, that exact situation. It is also important to have such types of people from all different places. I think there are people who are interested in this in all countries, like atomic players. 

Metta Spencer  

Okay, well, good, then we’ll do it. I mean, why not? Because Zoom is a wonderful tool. And, Gordon, you were going to be one of our speakers for that event. And so, we’ll be back in touch and I would invite anybody who’s watching this, to send me the names and email addresses of any groups that you know of, that should be notified of this plan. And when we collect a good list of people who are interested in trying to block radioactive contamination, we will set up a meeting and record it and create a network so that people can be in touch with each other. Everybody agree to that? Yeah.

Nadezhda Kutepova  

I would also like to add two more things. First of all, we should talk about the nuclear contaminated populations as victims of human rights violations. You know, the problem is a legal problem. We have never used this approach for nuclear victims. It creates for the nuclear industry an interesting possibility to talk about exclusive rights and exclusive damage [compensation] for the affected people. The violation of the rights of nuclear victims is a violation of human rights. This is the first thing. The second thing that we should talk about is the importance of stopping plutonium production and reprocessing. There are only 3 countries in the world – Russia, France, and Great Britain – who continue to do this. But, the contamination and multiplication [exponential growth] of contamination increases enormously. We should talk about these 2 things which are important for our future. When we talk about victims and the past, it is important to open this information. We should also think about the future. For the future, we should stop producing plutonium and we should stop reprocessing spent nuclear fuel. We have enough.  

Metta Spencer  

We certainly do.

Gordon Edwards  

I would just like to add to that, that there is now a push here in Canada and elsewhere to develop so-called small modular reactors, which require reprocessing as part of their operation. So, there is a revitalization of this long held nuclear dream. The real enthusiasts for nuclear power have always wanted, deep in their hearts, to get a hold of that plutonium. Not necessarily for bombs, although the bombs are powerful, of course, but also for future fuel for nuclear reactors. And in the process of getting this plutonium, that’s when you liberate all these radioactive materials and make them much more accessible to the environment. So, when things go wrong, the harm done is that much greater. The explosion of 1957 is a testament to that. 

Metta Spencer  

Well, certainly, and you’ve just been reviewing von Hippel’s book which is a protest specifically against a continuation of reprocessing entirely. So, let’s, I think that’s the number one cause we should all join. That would take care of that a lot, just by stopping reprocessing. Right?

Gordon Edwards  

Absolutely. 

Metta Spencer  

Okay, there’s a lot of work to be done. And this is only scratching the surface, but I’m so grateful to you all, for participating in this initial conversation.

Robert (Bob) del Tredici  

Metta, before we go away, could I show the one picture of the ‘Maids of Muslyumovo?” 

Metta Spencer  

Oh, please. Sure.

Robert (Bob) del Tredici  

It’s my favourite image from all of this.  

Metta Spencer  

Yes. [Robert (Bob) del Tredici puts photo on screen.] 

Metta Spencer  

He’s got a photo of young women in the area where he was able to visit. These are Bashkir?

Robert (Bob) del Tredici  

Bashkir women. Yes. 

Nadezhda Kutepova  

It would be interesting to publish your photo in the region, because maybe somebody would recognize themself, you know? 

Robert (Bob) del Tredici  

That would be wonderful. 

Nadezhda Kutepova  

I am trying to think of who we could correspond with about publishing this. Because, you know, Muslyumovo was created in during 2000s and 2010s under pressure from environmental organizations. This village was created in a bad way – only 2 kilometers from the Techa River. But I would like to know, maybe people would recognize them. Maybe some have already died, because many people in Muslyumovo have died and many people have a very sick next generation [descendants].

Robert (Bob) del Tredici  

Well, Nadezhda, give me a way to send this to you. Either your email or I can send you a print.

Nadezhda Kutepova  

Okay. I will see who I can communicate with and how we can publish it, maybe with a little description from you about when and where the photograph was taken. Okay, sure, we will try to do it.  

Robert (Bob) del Tredici  

And you mentioned, Nadezhda, that people were told they had the “common disease” when they had radiation [radiation related illnesses], but when I went here, the people told me, the doctors were instructed to say you have “vegetative syndrome.”  

Nadezhda Kutepova  

Ah. 

Robert (Bob) del Tredici  

That was code for radiation? 

Nadezhda Kutepova  

Yeah. I think that in the nuclear city [Ozersk], it called the “common disease” and for the local populations it was called the “vegetative disease.” 

Robert (Bob) del Tredici  

I have one more picture to show. And it’s…  [shows drawing] That’s you. 

Nadezhda Kutepova  

It is.

Metta Spencer  

Did you draw it? 

Robert (Bob) del Tredici  

Yes, I drew it. 

Metta Spencer  

That’s great.

Intro/Outro  

This conversation is one of the weekly series Talk About Saving the World, produced by Peace Magazine and Project Save the World. Please visit our website at: tosavetheworld.ca where you can sign the Platform for Survival – a list of 25 public policy proposals, that, if enacted would greatly reduce the risk of 6 global threats to humankind. Come back next week for another discussion of a serious global issue.

T191. International Cooperation

T191. International Cooperation

 

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number: WRS6
Panelists: Mike Simpson
Host: Metta Spencer

Date Aired:  22 February 2021
Date Transcribed and Verified:  16 April 2021
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits: David Millar

Metta Spencer  

Hi, I’m Metta Spencer, have you been cooperating internationally? Well, maybe we should all improve our international cooperation a bit. So today we’ve come to an expert, we’re going to talk with Michael Simpson was the executive director of the British Columbia Council for international cooperation. And the main thing they are doing these days, as I understand it, bless their hearts, is working on the Sustainable Development Goals. And you can’t beat that. One of the things that Michael and I want to talk about is the way a number of our potential disasters are interlinked. And so that we have to deal with any one of them, you have to deal with all of the others or some of the others, and how that makes it possible for us to arrive at fixes that we might not be able to have otherwise, because we can solve a whole bunch of problems at once I get take such comfort from that. And I also take a little pleasure in talking about the Sustainable Development Goals. Because I, as a project, save the world has six global threats that we try to address. And sometimes people say, well, you’re really overdoing it, aren’t you? You can’t do that many things. And I say, Yeah, well look at the Sustainable Development Goals. They’ve got 17. Right. So, we’re going to solve all 17 global threats today. Right? Good. Hi, Michael. How are you, Michael?

Mike Simpson  

How are you? Metta? Good, we should be able to get it all solved in about an hour if we’re if we’re, if we’re good.

Metta Spencer  

Well, it shouldn’t take any time for 17 global threats, right? No problem at all. And you started for a number of years as a filmmaker.

Mike Simpson  

Yeah, many years ago, when I in my 20s and 30s, I made films only on environment, human rights and development. And then eventually, I started to work, because I used what was called a participatory filmmaking process… got kind of involved in the actual films.

Metta Spencer  

…you jump in front of your own camera?

Mike Simpson  

No, I never did that. But I did jump into lots of situations. And a lot of those situations that I was working on had to do with…, wars in Central America, or… the conditions and issues… in different parts of the world around conflict, and, and peace… — that was a major part of what I did — and environmental sustainability. And eventually, because of that, I started to get more and more involved with nongovernmental organizations, and sat on boards and so on. And eventually, I just decided, you know, one day after being in in West Africa, during the war in Sierra Leone… I decided that I wanted to work with NGOs. So, I started an NGO… worked with… for a long time, called One Sky. And then eventually, when I moved to Vancouver, I started working with the British Columbia Council for International Cooperation, which is a network of non-governmental organizations. There’s about eight — because I think there are a number of them in Canada, are there. Are they all Canadian? And they’re all somehow tied together? Yes, basically, there… are… eight provincial and regional councils. So, there’s one in Ontario and Quebec, and so on… eight of them… they’re bound together in what we call the inter-council network, which is a council of councils, if you can think of it that way. And there’s also actually a national council, used to be called the Canadian Council for International Cooperation, it’s now actually just simply called Cooperation Canada. And I sit on the board… kind of related in some ways to sustainability… the Canadian Environmental Network. So, I’m kind of a network guy. Think of me as a network guy…  because networks actually tackle that very thing you talked about,

Metta Spencer  

now, these local, provincial networks, do you have autonomy? Or do you coordinate exactly what you’re going to be working on? So, you’re all working on the same issues?

Mike Simpson  

No, we all have autonomy, because I think in each region, you see these regional ways of doing things. And people kind of specialize or focus in each of the regions on the things that are of interest to their members. —  They exactly what are some of the local BC issues? I can I can gather that probably forestry and fishing. Right?  Yeah. But I will say the one thing that does bind us that makes all the councils come together is that we are actually all focused on international cooperation. So many of the groups are working overseas. So, they’re not just local and, in fact, you don’t do local. Well, this is where it gets complicated, because, in actual fact, international cooperation had a long history that comes out of the 60-70s and 80s and 90s. But if you look at what happened with the Sustainable Development Goals, It’s the first time that people have said on our planet, that some of the issues that we face have… a universal character, meaning they’re showing up everywhere. So, if you think of poverty, for example — for many, many people, we think of poverty is something that takes place in Sub Saharan Africa or in a refugee camp in a fragile state. But if you actually look at Canada, you can find some statistics… disaggregate the data, and you look into certain places and certain situations… where poverty is absolutely present in Canada, and in some very… dire situations. So, when… the Sustainable Development Goals came along, in 2015, people did a reset internationally. And they realized that many of the problems that we face, the roots of them are actually universal. So, Canada is one of the highest consumers of energy on the planet… where’s the problem? If you’re in Africa, and you’re trying to get access to energy, and you have no access to energy? Is it possible that maybe rich countries and rich people have… exorbitant access to energy, you’re actually using up the planet’s supply? So that’s where we get into these issues of climate justice and all these things, it’s a new way of thinking as of 2015, the world has fundamentally changed in terms of how we feel we are we are as a community, because it’s becoming much more global.

Metta Spencer  

Why 2015,

Mike Simpson  

if you go before 2015, you have the period where we were trying to do the Millennium Development Goals, the MDGs. If you look at the focus of the MDGs, there was eight of them… or if you wanted to go even earlier to Agenda 21, to the 1990s, when we all met in Brazil, and we set up the agenda for the 21st century… there was… a certain number of things we wanted to solve to make the world a better place. Most of those things were aimed at what we call the developing world back then… And this is the idea that there has been a disparity since World War Two between countries that had… quite a bit of access to modernity, and countries that were challenged in that respect. But what we’ve discovered… now about the world is… that just because you’re ahead economically, does not mean that you’re ahead morally, or that you’re ahead in so many other ways. And so, what happened in 2015, was, it was the first time that the agenda that the United Nations would set for the world was actually distributed. Everybody said, “Let’s do this”. The MDGs were written by 10 men in a room, the SDGs were actually written by 1000s and 1000s of people who brought forward what they felt were the most important issues. And ironically, that’s… why you have such a long list. Because if you do go out and ask everybody, what are the problems that you’re facing, you get a very long list. And so, 17 was the minimum list. There are actually 169 sub targets of all the things that — if you ask people in every part of the world that they care about. So, it’s… what your focus is, and what Save the World is really interested in. And it is interesting to look back at the history of where did some of the issues, the pressing issues of the 1980s (nuclear war, for example), where did it go in terms of the trajectory? … it actually goes off the map in around 1992… but it’s coming back… it’s come back to haunt us because… in the 1990s… people wanted to move into the environmental-sustainability issue. And so, Rio was… all about that. And agenda 21 was all about that — — people felt that the Cold War was over — that that was you know, we’d handle that looks like Gorbachev and Reagan had had, you know, taken care of it and many people still think so, you know, well, there’s people today that don’t remember that year, there was 35,000 nuclear warheads… pointed at each other on the planet, and there was

Metta Spencer  

— 60,000… It’s the day that I got alarmed. It was after the Three Mile Island thing. And I have I’m going to be on the lookout for the cause of my life because I need to, and then somebody said, you know that I would have guessed at that point that there might be 10 or 20 [thousand] on the planet. Yeah. Somebody told me there were 60,000

Mike Simpson  

Yeah, what’s sad is that we still have we still have the capacity.

Metta Spencer  

And we have generated, you know, like 510 less than 10,000 I

Mike Simpson  

I think now… but you don’t need that many. That’s the interesting thing is today’s weaponry is,

Metta Spencer  

yeah,

Mike Simpson  

we don’t need 35 or 60,000. You can blow up the world many times over and cause a nuclear winter very, very quickly.

Metta Spencer  

But what was one of the important things is not just the fact that they’re so damn dangerous. But that we’re diverting resources, away from the things that we do need to deal with in order to pay for these wretched things. It’s less safe rather than safer. So, from my point of view, you know, I’m very enthusiastic or when no, and then I get enthusiastic about the Green New Deal, it covers a lot. They don’t cover militarism, to notice that they don’t talk about reducing military expenditures, or even cutting down the risks caused by these miserable weapons, all kinds of miserable weapons. So, I think that you we could take the Green New Deal and, and inject a few more little points. And it would become really important because I think that the problem of weapons is, here, I’m giving a talk,

Mike Simpson  

you know, I…  totally hear you. I totally agree too by the way.

Metta Spencer  

And I think it’s really central to the whole package, that everything goes through nuclear and other warfare kinds of situations. So, if we don’t handle how, we solve our international conflicts, yeah, short of killing each other, or trying to maim each other, then we can’t do you know, we can’t really accomplish the other things might be able to make some progress. So yeah,

Mike Simpson  

well, ironically, you’re actually going right to the roots of the international cooperation sector, the entire sector that I work in — its roots came out of that, out of the Second World War, we had just killed, I think, what is it between 54 and 18 million people on the planet — which puts the virus in perspective, some days, right, just how many people were killed. And what people decided at that point was that the roots of conflict, were actually, you know, in these disparities, and in these differences that we had, and if we could work on those, it’s cheaper than war. It’s just literally cheaper than war, to put money into all the things we need to do to save the planet. And ultimately, that’s true today, too, because people will say… the Sustainable Development Goals. Oh, they’re very, very expensive. We’ll never get them done. And the bottom line is, is that you just have to look at the overall budget. I mean… let me give you an example. In Canada, I mean, we very quickly in Canada, say we cannot afford to be able to spend money on Overseas Development Assistance, or working with other countries to make some of the issues that we’re facing — like refugee camps or humanitarian assistance –that we say, we can’t afford that. First of all, Canadians are very, very, very, very ignorant about the actual amount. If you ask the average Canadian in a poll, how much money do we spend on that? They’ll say that a quarter of the Federal dollar, so 25 cents on the dollar goes to ODA. Now, that’s just fundamentally not true. Believe it or not… less than a quarter of a penny goes into actually the problems that we’re trying to tackle. Now take the same argument, say, Okay, well, where’s the money going, then? And you realize… we can quickly increase the military budget in Canada by $70 billion, you know, and the equipment and things that we’re buying, like when you look at the actual military apparatus, and you go… where’s the money come from? For that, you realize that there’s actually lots of money on our planet — it’s where do we focus it? And that’s one of our biggest challenges is that people just fundamentally don’t understand the expense of war. And the I mean, how expensive is it to get into a nuclear winter? It’s very expensive if we just wanted to look at it economically, and forget the moral side of it. You know, just from an economic perspective, you basically bankrupted the planet instantly for centuries, by doing that. And so, the things that you’ve been working on the six global threats that I see you working on are absolutely linked to the Sustainable Development Goals. There’s no question that there it’s the same Good, good fight that you’ve taken on, I’d be curious about

Metta Spencer  

these additional sub categories that you say are so numerous.

Mike Simpson  

Yeah, well, they’re just targets, think of it as like, each one of the goals will have a sub- target that is important. So… health and wellbeing is goal 3. And under goal 3, I think it’s 3.2, or 3.4… forget which number it is, but there will be the desire for the world to protect itself against infectious diseases. And you can see that if you don’t do that… that was decided in 2015, we had to tackle the key global infectious diseases like malaria, or tuberculosis, or whatever they happen to be. Well, you can see from the COVID pandemic, how important it is to have a global perspective on that issue. Because if you don’t tackle it together as a world community, then you cannot tackle it as an individual country or even a local community. And this is one of the underlying principles that you’re talking about, about the interlinkages. The idea that if you didn’t tackle climate change, then you cannot tackle gender equality, or if you don’t, or vice versa — or if you don’t tackle gender equality, [you] fundamentally cannot address… freshwater. Particularly… if you travel or you look around the world, and you realize that people will be tackling one subject, and not realizing that the… root structure of why they can’t find the solution is because it’s actually lying embedded in another subject… Like — climate change is a classic, we’re all very worried about climate change. But we do have to look at the relationship between climate change and clean energy, for example, goal 7… 13 is climate change. Goal 7 is clean energy. Well, if we don’t link those two, we fundamentally can’t solve one or the other. And if you don’t look at clean energy, then… you can’t tackle climate justice, which is the idea that some countries have had more access to carbon for a lot longer period of time, and others need it in order to be able to get the things done that they need to get done.

Metta Spencer  

Yet, we don’t have 17 different goals. But we do have a platform for survival. Yeah, we had people propose planks, as if we were a political party. And we were preparing a list of our specific projects that we would try to accomplish. And within, let’s say, climate change, there would be several different ways to do it, including changing the way to sustainable sources of energy, etc. and other things like managing carbon sinks so that our forests and our oceans are handled. So, all of those are, in a way, part of this list of 25. planks that take care of six, all six of the global threats. And of course, they’re really interdependent. It costly to you know, for example, we have one of our goals is to prevent famine, another one, prevent pandemics, and, of course, another one to prevent war. Well, these are so related, because, you know, no, in a war, famine nowadays is not, has not been caused by shortage of rainfall, by and large, not at all. It’s caused intentionally as an act of war, where one country lay siege to whatever is in Yemen, they try to starve them to death. So, famine is really a weapon of war. And, and then you say, well, pandemics. In fact, when people are in a famine, they don’t usually die of starvation, they’re weakened to the point that they’ve been susceptible to disease. So, they actually die of some infectious disease that becomes an epidemic in the areas. So, all three of these are completely interrelated. Yeah. And then, of course, we’ll talk about global warming, as sure enough, when we have global warming, really drying up the planet, and so and causing floods, and so on, that’s going to cause food shortages. So, we’ll have famines, again, caused by, you know, climate and so on. So, I think these are so connected, you say that your group has been working on looking at the whole package is a system, what you got to document or somebody tell me about that document? —

Mike Simpson  

I wanted to ask you a question that gets asked of me a lot when it comes to the interlinkages. And it’s just… which one of these do we work on? Because you have only so much energy in a day. And if you know that they’re all linked, then should you work on issues of famine? Or should you work on nuclear proliferation? Should you work on nuclear bombs or nuclear energy? Or should you work on clean energy because you could go out all day and work on promoting solar power, for example, and you don’t have enough time at the end of the day to also work on gender equality? So, one of the questions I get asked a lot is, which one of these do you do you work on? Given that they are all interlinked? I’m kind of curious in your case, because you might.

Metta Spencer  

Everybody is already working on all of you to some degree. The problem is that we work on them in silos. And people working on famine, don’t know that they’re on the same team as people working on pandemics, or people working on war, etc. We… don’t think that we’re all in a common project. But we think… that we’re competing with each other for resources. Yeah, that’s, that’s stupid, because we’re really everybody’s on the same team. If we just get acquainted, you know, that’s what we need to do is recognize that we’re that all of these are teams that are maybe specialists but, but also there’s a general overview that needs to be emphasized that all of these are we’re in the Business of saving the world? Yeah.

Mike Simpson  

Well, here’s some good news for you that you’ll like this, because what we did is we wanted to find out who’s on that team that you’re talking about. And so, we went around to… 32 communities in British Columbia, we drove around and visited every single one. And we sat down with all of the leaders in each of those communities, in roundtables, to understand who in their community is working on which of these problems, and that might have the 17 goals. And then we started to realize, wow, there’s actually like, every single community, if you sat down and did this exercise of community mapping on the wall, every single one of them would stand back at the end of the evening and go, “Wow, we’re covering every single one of these because there’s somebody in our community working on every single one of these things”… almost every time and sometimes many different groups and each one of those goals. So, you know, we did we actually created a digital map, it’s called the movement map, you can find it on our website, or just google movement map. And you’re going to find a picture there of the Team Canada that you’re talking about, guess how many groups are working on the SDGs? You’re not going to believe this? We didn’t, we had no idea. But it’s hard to guess I’m just going to tell you; I think there’s 12,800 groups. Does that cheer up your day or what like that? You see… we tend to think that we’re just a small group working in a church basement or something. But if you take all those church basements, and all those groups together, and you put them all on a map, and you realize, wow, there’s a group in Cornell, there’s a group in Smithers, there’s a group in Guelph… tons of groups in Toronto. And so, you can find out where they all are, and you can find out what they’re working on. And you realize we’re covering every single part of the plan.

Metta Spencer  

But how do you? How do you find Oh, it was hard to get… need one mailing list, you know, that has Yeah, contact for all of these people? And we’ve got —

Mike Simpson  

No, it’s already there. It’s already on the map. You can go there right now and get it is quite amazing. Like you can go in and just click and I want to look up who’s working on goal 16: peace, bang, you’ll find every single community listed, every single group, you’ll find their webpage, their organizations, their phone numbers. Well, it was a lot of work, we sat down with a bunch of mappers, young volunteers at first, eventually got a little bit of money to pay them. But basically, they have a bunch… very clever people sat down and they went through all of the databases of the nonprofits, checked their websites, and then went through them. to figure out which SDG they’re working on, and which of the sub-targets they’re working on, and which of the indicators they’re working on. And it’s all been mapped. So, we have for the first time ever in Canada, and we’re the only country in the world that’s done it. Now Germany is trying to follow what we’re doing. There’s a bunch of people in Latin America and Africa –we’ve just mapped in Minnesota 800 groups just in the state of Minnesota. So, the maps going kind of international, because the idea is if we could figure out, see up until now, Metta. We’ve known what we need to do, and we have 1000 theories on how to do it. But the one question nobody ever asked was, well, who’s doing it already? Because there’s an impression that we have to start this from scratch, but you know, that you’ve been working? How long have you been working on peace issues? Let me ask you that, how long have you?

Metta Spencer  

Well, let’s see in the 40s. I was…  interested in in the 40s. Up here, you know, there have been times when I, I did more navel-gazing than I did activism. So, I can’t really tell you a good straight answer. But I suppose,

Mike Simpson  

but it’s been a while you’ve been working on. It’s not like you just started

Metta Spencer  

during the Vietnam War. I remember marching in San Francisco carrying my son piggyback in demonstrations. Okay,

Mike Simpson  

… Metta, you’re reminding me of a film I shot years ago for the Voice of Women. And I interviewed a woman and she was in her 90s. And she had been a peace activist. And she started listing the wars. And she went through every war as to how she had been a peace activist. And then there was this kind of silent moment where she kind of just lost herself in one of those wars, in a moment of memory, it was very emotional stage in the film, because one realizes this is something I say to young activists all the time, I say, I’m not really so concerned that you stay in our movement in our organization or in our network. What the dream is, is that when you’re when you’re 90… that you’re still going, that’s the dream, because one has to realize that we don’t even — with the SDGs, the idea is we’re going to get to 2030 — But I promise you when we get to 2030, we will not be living in a utopian perfect planet, it’s not going to happen. So, the question is, how do we stay active? How do we stay engaged with the world caring about it enough that we’re going to be able to see that this isn’t a fight that stops tomorrow? This is one that will continue forever?

Metta Spencer  

I think in any lifecycle there are periods when people become less active because… you’re on the ladder, they’ve got to, you know, get their credentials… their CV looking good and, yeah, and then the best time — I think young people, you know that they they’re changing all the time, so you can’t really expect them to stay on track. But the beauty is when they get to be 65. That’s the time to recruit them. Because right, yes, retiring, they have a lot of free time. And they’re still smart, they know a lot of stuff, and they’re ready to go is a great time to become an activist again, and a lot of people do. You know,

Mike Simpson  

here’s a thought, too, because you see, I work with a lot of young people, we send a lot of young people to the climate change meetings, I think British Columbia Council has, like the largest youth delegations to go to the high-level political forums of the UN, and the climate change, we’re the only group that sends massive numbers of youth. Now, here’s the thing… I’m a youth advocate. But… what… the youth are telling us these days, when we do these roundtables, they’re saying… what they want is not to be isolated as youth but to be working intergenerationally. And therein lies a whole new way of seeing the world …

Metta Spencer  

find it. I think that if you’re hearing that I think that’s a change, it is a variance. When I’m thinking for example of the Iraq War, when I was still teaching, all of a sudden, I was at the Mississauga campus at U of T. And all of a sudden, my little, I had a little workshop room where we did peace studies, Resource Center with a lot of documents and things like that had two rooms, and it was be filled up at noon, with the students coming in wanting. And the lovely thing was, it was their project, it wasn’t mine, they were excited about it and engaged with it. So I have the feeling, or always have the feeling that when young people do something, it’s at a time when they’re trying to become independent more, and they want to do it on their own. And it’s not easy to recruit young people into old people’s organizations. You’re saying now they want to do more energy or right generationally, then I think that may be a new, a new phenomenon.

Mike Simpson  

Because you know, I think it’s new. Yeah, it is a new phenomenon. I think there’s a reason why, why it’s new. Because if we look at how the movements in the 60s, they were, there was a lot of antiestablishment anti system was a fight against the system. Right. And it was a fight against how things had been. And if we also look at the demographic wave at that point, there was a strong baby boom generation that really led that that alternative way of thinking, but what we have now is, is sort of different in the sense that we’re very globally interconnected. And we’re also facing challenges that everybody knows, every single generation knows that nobody represents the problem there. We’re collectively the problem, climate change, every single one of us is involved in driving cars, and cars and the modern economy. And we can see that actually, collectively, we’re sitting in a problem that nobody knows the answer to, therefore, we were going to have to think together is there’s a lot of talk around the so-called wicked problem-solving idea that the problem is so so wicked, that no one perspective is going to be able to solve this one. So, you can’t stand up as a youth and go well, I know how to do it. Because you actually don’t. And nobody in an older generation can say this is how we’ve always done it. This is how it should be. That was the 1950s, their 60s fight. Today, we’re sitting in the year 2021. We have all these different perspectives, global perspectives, multiple generation perspectives. And we’re for the first time ever realizing, wow, if we don’t put all these together, and be inclusive of who is at the table, then we fundamentally aren’t going to solve this one. And so, you’re seeing kind of a little bit more humility in terms of people realizing No, we’re going to have to actually, we’re going to need, for example, your experience. You know, you say you’re turning 90, we need the intergenerational experience, because there’s young folks that come along, they never went through a war. They don’t understand what was Vietnam, actually, what was the felt sense of Vietnam all about. And so that’s something my age that I’m kind of between you and the young folks, I’m 56.

Metta Spencer  

Wait, I really want to work more closely with you guys. Because I didn’t realize that you had done this spectacular. I can hardly imagine collecting 12,000 names of organizations, do you have like a file for every one of them? or How did you

Mike Simpson  

Know what?… to be honest, it was it was hard to collect them. But it’s even harder to maintain those numbers. So, what we’ve done is, we’ve encouraged people. So, for example, if an if a person is watching this program, and they’re not on the map, forgive us, it’s because of the way that we did the searches using known databases from… each provincial government… And then in the end, they all shared so it was really good. We got all the databases, and then for the first time ever, went through them and categorized them, and figured out which groups are actually working on the SDGs. Once you’ve done that, I mean groups change… addresses change… the challenge is to keep the database… up to date. So, we’re still kind of working on…  In the meantime, … it’s a very inspirational place to find out who is doing what. So, if you want to know, let’s say… there’s a tidal wave in Indonesia… and you really feel concerned and you want to find a group that’s working in that area, and has been working on the ground. Because this is the key thing about the map, you see is that what it’s stating… there’s 12,600 groups, and they’ve all been working on this. And some people been working on this for 30-40 years. You realize we’re not starting from scratch with the SDGs. We really aren’t. And you know, this will give you a kudos… when I look back at the 80s, and I look back to my own involvement in the anti-nuclear movement back when I was a young student… I actually credit your generation for keeping this planet alive. Honestly, I do. Because I believe that if… the few, the Helen Caldicotts and the people who stood up during those years, and brought our attention to the idea that we could annihilate ourselves on this planet, you know, those are the same giants upon whose shoulders we’re standing today, same in the environmental movement, you go back and you look at the people that drew our attention to the idea that… we’re polluting the very place that we live, all of those people that kept that story alive, that narrative alive, they can all be seen. Now, on this map, there’s 12,500, there’s hundreds, thousands of people involved now — behind the map. And you realize that it’s actually a living story, that in the fact that we’re still alive, the fact you and I are having this conversation, we haven’t been blown up, the fact that we’re still somehow limping through COVID on the planet. Yes, there’s a lot of wars, there’s a lot of things going on. But somehow through this week, we’re still going. And that to me is, is that’s not a coincidence … there’s a reason, if there were nuclear buttons that people could have pushed, they would have pushed them, but somehow, we stopped it. And that’s where I just want to… say to you and your generation, because… you’re a different generation than mine… you served to keep my generation alive. And I hope in my work, to serve, to keep the next generation alive so that my eight-year-old daughter… makes it through this… what I’m loving, is that all these generations now are coming together. And we’re seeing the global discourse, the common global discourse now is the SDGs, it is peace, it is a way to move forward. And I see a lot of hoping that like, there’s a lot of reasons not to be hopeful when you do what we do. But there’s a lot of reasons also to realize we’re still going. I mean, it’s kind of amazing.

Metta Spencer  

It’s, you know, the best of times, and the worst of times, in some ways the risk is greater than ever. I mean, I talked to people about things like methane leaks in the Arctic. And, you know, nobody knows anything about that. But you know, that may be the most dangerous thing facing humankind right now. It could be an extinction event. And you know, and people are just not quite sure how serious it is, you have to work it out. Yeah. But, you know, clearly,

Mike Simpson  

I was just gonna say, you know, you know, people don’t realize that methane is at currently, I think it’s 83 times a more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2. So, when you release a little bit of methane, it has the impact of eighty times as much carbon. And then what you’re talking about, which is the releasing of [methane]… in the Arctic, a nightmare amongst climate change scientists for some time, because it points to what they call a tipping point in climate change, where if it was released quickly and fast, it can fundamentally go from being like a slow exponential curve to a sudden dramatic rise. It’s what they call the toilet bowl scenario. And that toilet bowl scenario… it’s the same one that worries scientists about the oceans. And the acidification of the oceans is that we may hit a point of acidification where it just toilet-bowls on us… all those things are sitting there actually, you know, I’m curious, you’re you’ve seen a lot, right. I mean, you. You mentioned the number of wars and crises, and you said, we’re at a particular point. I’m curious how you view with your experience, how do you view… the year 2021? Like, do you think we’re just still climbing like that? Or do you see tipping points happen? Now?

Metta Spencer  

Look, I mean, different people? It depends on who you talk to. Later this week, I will talk to a guy who’s very optimistic. One guy is very optimistic that yes, we’re going to make, we’re going to stay within two degrees. And that’s the crucial thing from his point of view, because… he thinks that all we need to do is reduce carbon emissions. And I think that’s so true. I think we actually suck it out of the existing atmosphere and put it away… I’m not going to challenge him particularly because that’s one point of view. Then there are others who… are really alarmed about the possibility that at any moment, there could be an explosion of methane from under the sea. And one that he figured he said… if 8% of what we think is there should come out at once, it would raise the atmospheric temperature by 1.4 degrees centigrade, which then would warm it enough so that the rest of the 92% would, and it would be game over for all kinds of life, not just people. Okay, so there’s the global warming threat. just terrible. And the nuclear threat is sustaining itself. You know, they keep modernizing nuclear weapons, and people have no idea how risky it is, that could be accidentally in use. So, the people like Bill Perry, who was probably the most knowledgeable person about nuclear weapons on the planet, because he was Secretary of Defense… he says that we’re in much worse shape now, at much greater risk than we were during the Cold War, of nuclear war. I know, it’s crazy. So here you have these two catastrophes. And yet, you can see all of these opportunities, and all of the ways in which we’re really on the verge of really, really making some progress. So, you know, I view it —

Mike Simpson  

Yeah, I view this very existentially, because I think that… if you can see a technological threat… like nuclear power, like nuclear weapons, and you can see how technology itself can be so pathologically dangerous. But then, look, we’re in a zoom conversation right now where we can converse about these subjects. And people are doing it all over the place right now, to change minds and attitudes. And it’s happening at lightning speed. Why? Because technology has allowed us at the same… there’s a balance going on here… not just technologically but also sort of ethically, in the conversations that we’re having. Because 50 to 100 years ago, we would have talked about conquering nation states and the Westphalian system. And we would nobody would have even hesitated to talk like that. Now, you couldn’t get away with talking like that. You just fundamentally can’t. Right. So, there’s — 

Metta Spencer  

no there are people who do… I guess I would in in a way disagree with you to the extent of saying that, yes, this technology is wonderful at, but it’s also being used by crazies.

Mike Simpson  

It’s being used by crazies, but it’s being used by saints at the same time. And this is the part that’s interesting to look at is to go well, I don’t have as much historical perspective as you do, which is why I think it’s interesting to ask you, do you think, because that balance has always been there, otherwise, we’d be dead? Right? I mean, this is the bottom line… are we unbalanced right now? Or do you see tipping points in one direction or the other? And this is something that I think is an interesting thing to is particularly talking to young people because I you know, the amount of dejection and sort of hopelessness about climate change is overwhelming. It’s the same feeling that people had in the 80s, when they thought they’re gonna get blown up… with the two-minute atomic clock, you remember that the feeling that maybe you’re gonna die at any minute?

Metta Spencer  

Well, look, you made a video… where you talked about celebrating hopelessness. I never feel hopeless. Because… my energy doesn’t come from hope, sense of duty, that if I… know that I’m doing, what I’m supposed to be doing…  of course, I’m never really sure. But I’m pretty sure sometimes that this is something I should be doing. And, and if I think I’m supposed to be doing this, and I know it’s not going to work, but I still think I should do it, I’ll keep doing it…  it never, never throws me in that sense. But I think you’re also pointing at the worst threat of all, which is the tendency that people have to deny the catastrophes or potential for catastrophes. And one of the things that disaster researchers in sociology find is that it’s very universal, that if you warn people that there’s a disaster coming. Let’s say you go around the street with a bullhorn in your car saying, “Run for your lives because there’s a high dam that’s about to break.” People will just forget it… they won’t do it. You can’t get people to respond to the warnings about disasters. Yeah, well, this thing about denying scary things is a very widespread phenomenon. And that is what is, is the energy behind people who on the right… the Trump people… the people who simply are more concerned about going backward in time going making America great again, or Russia great again, or Brazil great again — all you have to do is go back to the way it used to be. And you’d be great. Well, that’s because they are denying the threat that we actually are facing. And how do you overcome that? That I think is the worst problem of all. Do you have a theory…? I’m going to be talking to a guy later this week on that very topic, denial of a blow-up trying to convince people that there’s a real threat, when they don’t want to believe there is. What do you do? Yeah.

Mike Simpson  

Well, you might…  Can I can I just ask you one question first, because you… said …that you get your energy… your underlying source of energy is around duty, a sense of duty. And I’m curious, it’s duty. So, when you think of yourself, and you’re in duty to what, what is that? And where does the energy come from? Because sourcing these energies to the social activists over time, like if I said to somebody, look, I want you to be able to get to the age of 90 and still be doing social activism like this friend… Metta. And they’ll say, Well, how am I going to do that? Well, I’d say source the energy of duty. But what would it mean? Like how would you explain that to somebody,

Metta Spencer  

The source that most touched me, at a certain moment of my life was reading a book by Viktor Frankl, “From Death-Camp to Existentialism”, I think they retitled it something like “Man’s Search for Meaning”. And he describes being in a death camp, a Nazi concentration camp where… most of the people were going to die. And… he talks about giving meaning, trying to help the other people around him find the meaning in their lives… he doesn’t talk about God gives you assignments, he doesn’t use that language. He just says life, like, gives you assignments to do, and you have to be on your toes to look at what your current assignment is, that you’re being told… This is what you’re supposed to be doing. And of course, there’s a danger… that crazy people believe that… God’s telling them things to do. And you know, that’s just part of being psychotic… mentally ill. But… if I feel I have a duty to be doing something, which I do right now, this is my duty to be doing this show with you… there’s a possibility that I could be kidding myself, you know, that I could be deluding myself and, and so on. And so, I have to be a little humble about talking about… told me to do this, or… don’t need to do this. But I think it’s it whether you say it’s God telling you to do it or, or life is presenting you with certain challenges, that it’s that it’s quite possible to deny them … and ignore them? You … have to actually intend to be looking, to find them.

Mike Simpson  

Yeah, you do have to be searching your question. I’m not sure I’ve answered… bring up Viktor Frankl’s searching because actually, he… was a trained psychoanalyst. And… what’s interesting about his work… because he… was working with people in the middle of a — over our entire planet, in our entire history, there is nothing more horrifying than the Holocaust — what he tuned into in that context was that people… were essentially oriented towards meaning. And what you are describing right now is that essential core, and it shows up in so many perennial philosophies, I mean, it shows up in so many different religions and so many different spiritual paths, that ultimately, when we sense into who we are, and what are we trying to do, how are we trying to show up in this brief life that we have on our planet? In this context, there is an enormous amount of orientation towards meaning, and not necessarily money and happiness and a new RV and a new car. Ultimately, we all know that if we go through that, there’s something else going on. Now, here’s what I think is interesting… actually expressed in the development of an adult human being. Kids go through a stage where they’re pretty centered towards themselves, they’re egocentric… they just want their food and their cookies and so on. But eventually, they’ll reach out and they’ll realize, okay, I got this sort of other boundary around me, my group, my family, and so on, right. But if you look at the later stages of this, you’ll see that people grow and see that… they start to embrace wider and wider senses of care… who they care about. So, they go beyond even their family or even beyond the… ultimately… they start caring about the earth and the planet and the trees. Now what’s going on in that… development of the care structure goes right back to what you’re talking about, which is a sense of self, towards others and duty towards others. But ultimately, if we examine that, we would see that we actually start to identify as other — this is the critical leap, is that you start to realize I am an expression of the interconnected web of life. Therefore, I do care about that jungle, not because it’s a jungle faraway in another country, because that jungle is me. This is how we manifest it together, right?… and this, interestingly shows up in every mystical tradition, going right back to Meister Eckhart, or any of the ones you want to name… And they all start to clue into the same sense of a duty or a calling, because they identify with, not as or against, but with. And this is something I find intriguing, because that sense, is more and more being articulated in the global discourse. And I said, you wouldn’t get away with it today to talk about the nation-state. I mean, if you went to the United Nations right now, and you tried to talk as a nation-state, and you tried to ignore the global discourse of the SDGs, you will ultimately fail. 193 nations signed that thing five years ago, and it fundamentally… talks about all of us on a planet with no planet B. And ultimately, from I mean, I’m ranting, but here, but ultimately, this is at the core of the human experience, is to show up like you’re doing. I mean, good on you for doing that. You do this every day. You talk to people, and you show up and you stay active. And when I see your life and what you do, and I just can’t I mean, there’s no question that there’s hope. There’s absolutely no question.

Metta Spencer  

Well, I take the same type of encouragement from what you’re doing, too. Because you know, I didn’t know you. You got good, energetic sister. Boy, she’s dynamite.

Mike Simpson  

Yeah, she’s a lot of fun.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah, she she’s like my brother. Yeah,

Mike Simpson  

Well, I’m glad that we made this connection. today. And after say, good, good on y’all trying to promote your channel, so that people can see the grassroots. By the way, what you’re doing is really intriguing, because… what you’ve done here is, is kind of a new form of democracy, which I find very exciting, too, is that people are able to get on a YouTube channel, have these kinds of conversations? No, that’s not broadcast to the entire world. We’re not on CNN, but we can have the conversations that need to happen, because they wouldn’t happen on CNN. Do you see what I’m getting at? Like, there’s no room for these kinds of conversations. But these are the critical conversations that people that community at the community, grassroots level wants to have. And what I get excited about is that, you know, when I talked about the map, 12,500… if there’s 12,500 conversations like this going on, it’s an unstoppable force. So, the technology is there, the people are there. And I would encourage anybody who’s watching you to get inspired.

Metta Spencer  

And when you’re thinking, it’s a matter of sharing, of getting aware of each other as partners. Yeah, it’s just, you know, just love you already know.

Mike Simpson  

Where you go, yeah.

Metta Spencer  

We just have to get aware of each other. Because there are a lot of folks like you out there.  Yeah.

Mike Simpson  

Yeah, that’s the good thing is, there’s no shortage of people connecting them. I think that’s why I got into networking, because you can connect them, if you can connect a shortage.

Metta Spencer  

I am very enthusiastic about networks, as opposed to another organization. I don’t want to form another organization, there are 12,000 of them it looks like, but what we needed, I thought was a web page where people could come and share ideas and be aware of what all of these other people are thinking about and doing. So, we have this web… page, called tosavetheworld.ca. And people can go there and post their ideas and share you know, like listserv or something like that.

Mike Simpson  

Yeah, that’s awesome. That’s awesome.

Metta Spencer  

Okay, how can I work better with you? Because if you’re if you’re doing this, if you’re in BC, but you know, this is your this is exactly this SDG thing is really what we need to all be focusing on, right? Yeah.

Mike Simpson  

Well, you know, what I say when people say, “How can I get involved?” I usually say, Well, how are you already involved? And can you build on your current environment? Because everybody comes to these subjects with an expertise, they might have been a teacher, they might you know, who knows what they’ve done? Maybe they’ve been an engineer or something, right? But your life has led up to this point. And you have created yourself as the extraordinary person that you are. And then the question is, how can you launch from that into just simply connecting… that’s the trick is to no longer be in isolation, but to connect, and if you can connect with another person… that’s where networks are great. You can go to an organization… If that doesn’t work for you, you want to have a broader view, connect with a network. There are networks… anybody can become an individual member of our network. But there’s other networks… peace networks, there’s your network, tosavetheworld.ca. The key thing here is to make the leap. The key thing here is to say, Okay… I’m no longer to show up alone, I’m going to show up… with other people. So, my special sort of nature is going to leap in. And I’m going to work with others in a… unified way. And there’s a lot of conflict in that, there’s a lot of trouble in that, but… it’s also the answer. It’s the answer to how we’re going to solve some of the problems. And… we don’t just go in with the group that you’ve always gone in with, or the people you’ve always gone in with, if there’s a way you can make the leap. And being with other groups and other ways of thinking. That’s the big message we’re getting today about inclusivity. And about, about having a lot of different people at table from a lot of different backgrounds. And particularly what we talk about in the in the SDGs… very deep in the principles of the SDGs is the concept of leave no one behind. And … there’s a lot of problems with that how it’s phrased, but the idea is that there are people that never get to the table, that never get to be involved in conversations, and can we reach them, get involved… where your passion shows up, and then just take that passion and connect it to this idea that you’ve come up with, which is that if you’re working on climate change, and that’s your passion, just be able to see the link to peace. Instead of seeing it as… your silo and they’re doing their silo, … just make that leap, which is wow, if I’m working on climate change, and I tackle the… justice nature of climate change, if I can see the link between climate change and war, which is so obvious in places like Syria, and so on, if I can make those links, then I’m now thinking with this global mindset that you’re talking about interlinkages. It’s the fun, it’s the big leap, in… 2015 to 2020, we’ll go down in history as the period of time where we started to make the leap.

Metta Spencer  

And then we will how people are monitoring progress. And what are the next stages? I mean, I heard about the launch of the SDGs. But I am not sure how it is there. Is there a process of evaluating how we’re doing? And what it’s going to be like when we finish it, etc.? What’s going on organizationally? Yeah,

Mike Simpson  

That’s a really good question. Because you know, it lay at the heart of the SDGs as well, which was that we people were getting pretty tired of people going to the United Nations making fantastic statements about what they’re going to do, and then not being held accountable. And so, the accountability side of it was that if you’re going to say, we’re going to eradicate poverty, what are the numbers? And this is where we realized, so there’s 169 sub-targets, 17 goals, but there’s actually I think it’s 241 indicators of success. And —

Metta Spencer  

they took off measurements of  —

Mike Simpson  

Let me give you an example… on poverty, we know an indicator for… a country… to help on the whole issue of international development would be that you spend 0.7% of your gross national income GNI on ODA. So that’s an indicator, very specific… you can measure it, every country… report. Same thing with… the national indicators for contributions on climate change. We know what… everybody agreed in Paris… the national indicators, and every country puts forward their commitments — like Canada, now we can measure ourselves against progress on goal 13. Now, as these — 

Metta Spencer  

How often do they submit reports?

Mike Simpson  

Every country has to submit at least two reports. Canada has submitted one report, many countries are on their third report already. And this is all done. Every summer, the countries come together at a meeting called the High-Level Political Forum [HLPF] and people compare notes as to how are we doing on the planet? How are we doing on these SDGs? How far do we have to go? How far have we come? That’s the big question. And we can see on progress on the SDGs that we have fallen behind…. COVID has made us fall even further behind on… poverty needs… we needed to get 800 million people out of extreme poverty in 800 weeks when we started the SDGs. Imagine that’s a huge number of people, almost a billion. By the way, it’s… not even close to what we faced in the 1990s… we had multiple… numbers, more people that were living in extreme poverty. So, we’ve really brought poverty… down in an extraordinary way since the 1990s. And now we have about 800 million left. Well, we were doing pretty good. We were tackling it through 2015 but then along came COVID and… the World Bank just released a report saying we’re back to 100 million. So, we’ve gone backwards because … COVID smashed economies around the world. So… we can see the progress and the … numbers, and we can see the indicators. And this is another thing that your viewers fundamentally need to understand is that we are not actually falling behind… we’re actually gaining ground. Like we really, we’ve gained huge ground on, for example, literacy for the girl child — access to education is a fundamentally different picture on the planet than it was in 1992.

Metta Spencer  

And that’s so crucial for global warming. You know, that is one of the big factors making, reducing overtime. Yeah. Okay. So

Mike Simpson  

You brought up this idea of like, how do we measure it, and this is where I just put some, some we can measure it, there’s a lot of the indicators that we… still don’t have the ability to measure. So, it creates a big problem, right. But I will say that if you do look at some of the measurements, you can see that we’re gaining, and we’re losing. And we have to look at why are we gaining? Why are we losing? And… how do we fight this good fight that we’re in, on the planet, right? Anybody could get involved and look at the indicators. And we ourselves put out what’s called a “shadow report” — the government puts out a report, and then along comes civil society… and we actually look at all the statistics and we go, “Well, actually, wait a second. Here’s another story.” — And so, then we put out what’s called a “shadow report” … and we talk to the government about it, and I think we’ve produced about five of those right now. Or —

Metta Spencer  

Your organization BCCIC…

Mike Simpson  

B C’s, the British Columbia Council for International Cooperation and the webpage is bccic.ca. And on there, if you look, you’ll find the SDGs. And you’ll find all the reports. And we you know, we put out a report… on Canada… called “Keeping score,” which is all about the indicator frameworks… to understand how’s Canada doing… measuring our progress, are we doing a good job or not? A… There’s another interview you could think of in the next few week… the Canadian Auditor General will put out a spring report through the environmental commissioner’s office on Canada’s progress on the SDGs. And I look forward to understanding whether we did very well or not because when they first came along, they put out a report, the auditor put out a report… the Canadian government made all these promises at the UN, are we doing anything? And they found that on seven points of preparedness Canada had fallen far, far behind other countries. And actually, this is the sad story of being Canadian, to be honest, is that other countries have taken SDGs very, very seriously. They’re not taking it very seriously in Canada.

Metta Spencer  

Canada has less so. Oh,

Mike Simpson  

The Canadian story unfortunately is a bit sad. It’s a good story about civil society. Like I said, lots of groups involved, lots of groups doing the work. Unfortunately, the Canadian government has actually fallen behind on this one quite dramatically, actually.

Metta Spencer  

Well, we got to pull up our socks

Mike Simpson  

So, pull up our socks, exactly — 

Metta Spencer  

being hopeless. And

Mike Simpson  

I never to sad be hopeless. This is very interesting. I did talk about that. But I always said to see both sides. Because if you can hold hope… hopelessness tells us a lot. Like if you look at climate change, it looks pretty hopeless. But that can be motivating. Right? So you have to be hopeful whenever… Always be hopeful. As hopeful as you are, as hopeful as I am right now. Honestly, got to hold hope. It’s —

Metta Spencer  

been exactly the most energizing conversation in a long time. Ready to go. How about All right,

Mike Simpson  

well, let’s get on with you. Have a good day, Metta. It’s such a pleasure to talk

Metta Spencer  

Wonderful. Sometime, thanks.

Mike Simpson  

All right. Bye bye.

T173. How do People Become Torturers

T173. How do People Become Torturers

 

Project Save the World Podcast / Talk Show Episode Number: WRS6
Panelists: Bill Skidmore
Host: Metta Spencer

Date Aired:   28 January 2021
Date Transcribed and Verified:  15 April 2021
Transcription: Otter.ai
Transcription Review and Edits: David Millar

Metta Spencer  

Okay, Hi, I’m Metta Spencer. And today we’re going to have I don’t think we can call this fun. I don’t know what to call it. It will be interesting though; I promise you that we’ve got to talk about torture. I’ve got a friend here, a new friend, who’s a professor just recently retired from Carleton University, who specializes in human rights studies, was in a program that quite often runs on human rights, and one of the human rights is (I suppose) not to be tortured. But he has… some expertise in that topic. The thing that immediately I wanted to know about was, how can you get people to do such a thing? So that’s one of the things I want to explore with him. This is William Skidmore. Hello, Professor Skidmore

Bill Skidmore  

Metta, you can call me Bill.

Metta Spencer  

All right. We’ll do that. So, hello. And let’s get right down to work. I asked you to to come and talk to us about torture, because this is not a topic that I have ever covered before. And yet, you know, everybody has to worry about the social psychology of… how do people become tortures

Bill Skidmore  

Become torturers… well, there’s not a single answer. It varies depending on the person, the circumstances or whatever. I think one can go back and say, Okay, what is torture, and there’s a torture… convention: severe pain or suffering of a physical or psychological nature. But part of what the torture convention also speaks about —

Metta Spencer  

excuse me, when we use the word Convention in this sense it means a treaty

Bill Skidmore  

… the International Convention on torture and cruel, inhuman, and degrading treatment or punishment… a UN treaty ratified by most states, many states, — 

Metta Spencer  

 when did that come into existence? By the way,

Bill Skidmore  

… I think the official ratification I think, was 1984. But there’s reference to torture in the United Nations Declaration of Human Rights and their International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and others. But it’s been long understood, since at least the Second World War, if not before, that torture is both immoral and illegal failing, and to engage in that… if I go back to this notion of the involvement of the state, and one can question if that definition is correct, but that’s the one that’s there — torture, in a sense, is a crime of obedience. Often people think that the people who torture… the soldiers, the police officers, are driven by a particular sadism, a personality that wants to cause suffering for other human beings. But in fact, that’s usually not the case. Or if it is, they need to constrain it, because they are the upfront perpetrators of harm, but they’re doing it on behalf of other authorities. So, they have to be constrained, prepared to act in the interest of the state, for instance, don’t kill the subject if the state doesn’t want them killed… You don’t want to just give vent to sadistic impulses. And so often it’s said — torturers are like us, ordinary people who… become that. Now, after being a torturer, especially for any length of time. I think one loses the moral sensibility that one normally has, which is not to inflict pain on other people. You know, most of us don’t, in our day, begin thinking, “Oh, how can I go and really hurt somebody in the deepest way.” And torture is perhaps the most profound way of causing suffering because — it’s a little more complex than this, but — unlike killing, you prolong the suffering. You maintain it, you gradually destroy the person’s sense of self. You make them into such a desperate person who will do anything to get out of the pain, who’s… normally a proud, self-confident person… perhaps begging, crying, you know, deprecating urinating on themselves, begging… feeling totally unable to control their circumstances? That is the pain that has caused so… I’m not really answering your question in this moment. Oh,

Metta Spencer  

You… really are and because that, you know, you’re giving a very full explanation of what that kind of experience is like. You —

Bill Skidmore  

… partly what draws me to teaching about political repression — and torture is part of that, it’s not the whole… — is the suffering, it causes unbelievable suffering… that doesn’t stop when the torture stops. It… remains with the person throughout their life, whether … physical consequences, muscular skeletal problems, headaches, insomnia, I have a friend… who was tortured — an engineer, can’t do math anymore… so cognitive harms, and then psychological harms of anxiety, of depression, of losing faith and trust. I mean, this is one of the greatest shames — in the same person, but I’ve heard others speak of this as well — in his case, he was blindfolded right into a certain office, he thought he’d be able to just explain things, he wasn’t that worried. And out of the blue… a horrible slap on his face. So, he lost. He said, my understanding of life changed at that moment and other torture survivors say that as well…  the first instance of the humiliation, of the pain, of the total control exercised over them — to imagine that another human being could be treating them like this. So, it has long-term effects like destroying trust, the inability to be close to others, even the inability to be close to one spouse or one’s children or… friends. So, it’s horrific what it does. But again, my interest in it wasn’t simply, this was part… Because I’ve met people through my work before academia, who had been tortured, and talked to them to some degree. And of course, I’ve read about it. But this incredible damage that is done and lasts the lifetime. But it’s done for a reason for a state reason, usually, a very… simplistic notion would be that it targets those who dare to challenge the power of the state, to stop political activity, to stop those who would challenge the state’s activities. And it’s not just in dictatorships, it’s in democracies as well. It’s as even the now-deceased Uruguayan writer Eduardo Galliano once said, I don’t remember the exact quote… the torture chambers: these are the consequences of inequalities of wealth of the powerful wanting to maintain their wealth, their status, their power, and this is what it comes down to. So much. How did you get into this? It probably started in my early 20s. When I moved to Ottawa, I’m from Saskatoon, and I had worked there in a crisis center. So, I was familiar with individual, personal life traumas, from people who would I meet through my work, suicidal-depressives, victims of spousal abuse, whatever, really horrific stuff, but then I got more involved around the political side. And part of that when I came to Ottawa, I did my Master’s in social work. And I met people who were from different countries, Central America, Chile… this was in the early late 70s, early 1980s. So, we have different waves of refugees coming to Canada, depending on the circumstances of that time. And some of them would talk about it. It’s rare and you don’t go and ask somebody, “Hey, were you tortured?” … in my own [life] I guess I was 30-31, I moved to Zambia in southern Africa, to work with the United Nations High Commission for Refugees. I’m not a legal person, so I wasn’t doing the protection elements of according refugee status, finding third countries such as Canada to immigrate to — I was on more the social service, small-business creation side of it, for people who would be remaining there. But through that work, of course, either people would tell me, or I would become familiar with certain cases of people who had come to the UN, who would describe their treatment, some of it quite horrific.

Metta Spencer  

They always bring it up, or do they avoid it? Mostly?

Bill Skidmore  

I don’t know… the lawyers if they ask right out, I have a feeling often they need to build the case. They probably do that. I wouldn’t…. People would confide in me. Tell me You know, it’s like, I guess comparison when you don’t ask somebody sexually-assaulted… you allow somebody [to talk] if they wish, and then you have to decide how … to deal with it. And… 1985 to 88. I was there. And it was also the time of the apartheid struggle in South Africa, in Namibia. And it impacted the what they call the frontline states, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Angola, Botswana. And so, I would meet members of the African National Congress. And sometimes they would tell me something about this, or at meetings, people would talk. So, it was just gradually I became more aware of the depth of, of the violence used to suppress people, and the long-term impacts. And even at the time, I wouldn’t necessarily understand it… well, it’s over time… I often think of this one guy who used to irritate me and ANC members. And the reason he irritated me, it was only this one thing, every hour on the hour, he stopped all conversation, if you’re at a party or with a group talking, and put the news on. He was obsessed at knowing… what was happening at home… any news. And so, there was such an attentive… I don’t know if he was ever tortured. But he was in exile. He obviously had had to flee his country. He had been subjected all sorts of harms… At that time, I didn’t realize that that was one of his coping techniques. I learned that more later, the more I studied the research on torture. So that’s the long answer to how I why I came to do what I do. As a teacher I wanted to… talk about human rights violations, let’s say even economic and social and cultural rights violations. Okay, what role has force, intimidation, coercion, and the infliction of deep pain [play]? …in maintaining social and political and BDS — don’t challenge the system…

Metta Spencer  

I’ve heard people say that it is counterproductive. That, you know, they were talking a few years ago about waterboarding the in the US, which is torture of, I guess, absolutely.

Bill Skidmore  

torture. Absolutely.

Metta Spencer  

And, and there was a debate, I guess as to whether or not you were actually going to get the truth out of people with that. Now, how often is torture used as a means of extracting information from people who might be otherwise, you know, in on a secret that they don’t want to share, political… conspiracy or something?

Bill Skidmore  

Well, they commonly seek information. The question becomes how, how genuine that information is, if people tell you, it under extreme duress… we will say whatever, to save ourselves from the pain. Sometimes people try to commit suicide while they’re in prison and being tortured, because it’s so, so horrific — so to gather information, to punish. It’s a way of saying, if you dare speak out, you will suffer the most incredible pains. It’s to create collaborators, those who will, in order to end the pain — and then you create a large society of collaborators. Its… primary role is to deter challenging authority, it’s to deter political activity.

Metta Spencer  

But that’s a big category… These are two different things. Getting collaborators is one thing, punishing people and making an example of them… a warning. And then getting extracting information from those would seem to be all three. And maybe there are other types of or motivations for it. But they’re… all a matter of trying to get conformity with the government.

Bill Skidmore  

So that’s the overarching… to change how a person thinks politically… get them to betray their cause, and actually identify not just doing it so the pain stops, but that they then fully identify with the cause of their own [repressors].

Metta Spencer  

That happens much?

Bill Skidmore  

I don’t know how much that happens. I can’t give you stats and even if you look at different research… and going back to your first question, how do you get other people to do this. There’s a lot of difference of understanding based on research of what are the factors that lead people to actually —

Metta Spencer  

remember during the Patty Hearst case, there was a story about the Stockholm Syndrome, that she… moved over to becoming one of the kidnapper group. She joined the group, the Symbionese Liberation Army. And but I don’t think she was ever tortured. I think that she, this was a case in which she, her psychological strength was just not strong enough as she joined the cause. That, you know, but it the idea that you would torture somebody and actually get them to, to want to be part of your outfit. Oh, that’s hard. But,

Bill Skidmore  

but if you look at, again, the causes are bringing people to torture, there’s many different [ones], this is what I would start with. But I think response to your question that one way of making people torture, is in a systematic way for a state government. After you’ve selected those who will do it, they become part of a professional… unit that’s set to do it — usually, to varying degrees, they themselves are degraded or humiliated, even tortured. And so, the notion is, you would think they would then never want to do that to anybody, but often they, they actually identify so much, ultimately with those who are abusing them. Because they’re so dependent on them, amongst other reasons. So… learned helplessness. They, they become extremely loyal to them. They… have been brutalized, themselves, initially hating… the treatment of themselves, but then the identify with those who did it to them and then become part of the group who does it to others and… I don’t want to compare the two exactly, but even initiation rituals for fraternities —

Metta Spencer  

You know, yeah, I mean, I’ve never understood that. But yes, they certainly do go along with it, don’t they? That’s part hazing. Yeah,

Bill Skidmore  

… You degrade the person, you make them feel lesser, you destroy their own identity, their selves, their sense of self confidence of their own beliefs, you break them down, and you build them up again. I mean, military training does that to some degree, and it can be done more severely. But this is what you’re doing. You’re destroying that person’s capacity for agency, to act on their own moral beliefs, and brutalizing them, and then they join, and are so connected to the authority that did it. And that’s the most important thing because you want torturers who will obey orders. You don’t want freelancers; you don’t want those who will do something that will harm what you’re trying to do. They have to be completely obedient to those who control them without question.

Metta Spencer  

I was waiting to bring that up. Because even before we met today, I was thinking about Dave Grossman’s work, you know, Dave Grossman, is a lieutenant colonel or something retired from the US Army, where he was, I don’t know what his own role is, but he certainly was a military instructor. And what he argues, and he’s got really good evidence that people inherently will avoid killing, and that in previous wars, most of the people who were supposed to be shooting to each at each other, would often deliberately miss even though it would expose them to harm because the other… could shoot them back. But… they didn’t want to kill so they would shoot over their head or in the ground or someplace. And, you know, they’ve done things like collect spent bullets after a battle and compared to how many people actually got hit. And, of course, it’s a fraction of the number of people who could have been hit if they were trying to shoot straight. So, he says that people inherently will avoid… inflicting pain or killing another person, but the army then has to overcome that. So, they’ve done some very creative things they’ve developed, you know, like video game trainings, and they’ve done various things to make people shoot at targets that look human first, and they work their way up to overcome this resistance. And recent wars, he says have shown… that they’re much more successful nowadays, in getting recruiting any ordinary young man, I guess a woman to… do this, and, and overcoming their reluctance might even start with having them kill a chicken, you know, I’ve never killed a chicken, although I’ve watched my mother do it. And, you know, you start with doing something that you would sort of be repelled by doing, and then work your way up to horrible thing. So, I suppose that becoming a torture would be like the last stage in this learning process, educational process, or…redefining of the personality?

Bill Skidmore  

Well, you do, of course… basic thesis was, the further away you are from your victim, the easier it is to inflict harm on them. So, if you’re launching a missile or your bomber, at 40,000 feet, it’s easier to press the button than if you have to do it up close. And then torture, of course, is even a step closer, because you’re not killing. Normally, that can be at the end. But you’re actually as I said earlier, keeping them alive, in such a degraded state. And in, essentially what you said about the chicken… when I got in my early 20s, I lived in India, and I worked with a guy who had been in, in the Indian military, and he told me that they would practice bayoneting on dogs… as an example of how to do it. And then there’s various rituals that people are put through…  like even being given the blood of animals to drink as a ritual, because who would be inclined. So, these are unifying rituals as well… these are your comrades, you’ve done this. So, but there are these antecedent conditions, besides the training in all the notion of — you create the sense, often of certain persons in a society — being either inferior or a danger, and often both. So… the famous example of what the Nazis did to Jews and Roma and others. Before the Nazis came along, these groups of people were already devalued, already seen as a threat, already seen as harming the society. So, it could be you look down on people because of their ethnicity, their religion, but it could also be their political views. So, they pose a threat. And so, you develop this in-group/out-group, they are the threat, we are saving the country from them. You… become part of a… professional network within the military, of one’s country who does this, and you see what you’re doing as an important job for the state. And you view your comrades… as doing an important job doing it capably, and you look down upon those who you torture. And the more you torture them, the more you look down upon them, because of course, they’re looking, you know, horrible state, it’s like… we often will pass poor people or people begging for money and look down on them even without wanting to… or they’re ragged and dirty. And, and we… have this just-world thinking that, well, I’m fine. Why are they — you know, it’s their fault. So, we even look at the tortured person, it’s their fault. They’re in this predicament because it’s a just world. One wants to believe that. That’s how we, if we are doing well, we’d like to say… because the world will reward people who work hard and have whatever characteristics we think matter. So, we see people being tortured or otherwise they, they deserve that they’ve done something wrong, they’re a threat and look at them… what a pathetic piece of garbage sitting in front of me. Even the one who has done the degrading of them themselves. They still look down on — So interesting. Now, you’ve we’ve got to the point of talking about the after-effects, you’ve begun by saying that they’re broken permanently. Is everybody broken permanently? Or do you know of cases of people who somehow have overcome the trauma in a way that they do not have nightmares or whatever other horrible, lasting effects? Well, yes, I mean, I’ve known people who have impressed me so much by what they’ve had to deal with, let’s say it’s a permanent state, you’ll always remember, it will always affect you in some way. People grapple with a greater degree — depending on their circumstances, the support they get, just their basic life circumstances. Some people think — some therapists think… you have to work through — others would say no… imagine somebody who’s been tortured, arrives in Canada as a refugee, they have a family, you have to learn English or French, they have to find housing, they have to try and find a job. They have to recreate a whole life. So often, the traumas they experienced, whether through torture or other traumas of fear of being persecuted, or just the traumas of going in [unclear audio], often those have to be pushed aside, in order to just deal with the practicalities of daily life and also find meaning in them, especially if one of them… has others who depend on him. Now, some people might think, well, but maybe 20 years down the road, when life is… more stable, maybe it will come back to affect them. So, there’s… varying theories of whether you actually indeed have to work through. There are different understandings, depending where people come from of what causes this thing. How do you… go to a therapist? That’s not a common notion in many cultures? Do you even talk about it to anybody, especially imagining certain tortures, like sexual torture — which is we even know here with rape survivors? … many feel so ashamed, and torture survivors feel the same. They didn’t do any wrong, but they are made to feel something is deficient in them. And then you add in on top of other non- sexual tortures, the sexual tortures? It can complicate that. I think that so I’m not sure what the answer is, you know, because I’ve known people who have so impressed me… how they’ve, I can describe it as — a generous spirit of caring for others, of maintaining their political goals and organizing. On the other hand, I want to be careful about turning them into heroes, because that can put some pressure on them that they don’t always feel they can live up to.

Metta Spencer  

You find anybody who can actually make of empathizing with and understanding or feeling? Well, I don’t like the word forgiveness in this context, but trying to understand the mentality of the torturer? I’ve heard of people who 20 years later they run into their torturer in a social situation, you know, and their stories about what happens in their encounter. I guess it varies a lot. But are there people who can feel any common humanity between themselves either from the from the park, part of the torture toward the victim or vice versa?

Bill Skidmore  

Well, some torturers… somehow acknowledge what they’ve done and confess to it. Recognize just how much they dehumanized, are examples of, maybe the torture actually knew the person they were a family friend or something. So, there they can. It’s harder to dehumanize the victim when you also know them in another way. I wrote up cases of people who were in a good point… I have known people here, for instance, on a busy downtown Ottawa Street, they didn’t tell me directly, a third person who’s from the same country, because they’ve never talked to me about their torture. But I’ve heard about it, it was horrific, from this third person, and they said they run into their torturer on a busy downtown street in Ottawa, has somehow gotten to become a Canadian citizen — and it’s shocking, and it’s frightening. And it’s terrifying. And it reminds you of the degradation. I have read of people who have tried to forgive, who would have said if there’s different attitudes, some religious attitudes, I once had a student in class and he said in his faith, we do forgive and I said, “Well, is that just, you know, a rationalization like a psychological way of dealing with the pain?” He said, No, “We actually truly believe that.” He was a very authentic guy so I can see it. I’ve seen people try to do that. I’ve seen others who for instance say, my… treating them well, was my best revenge.

Metta Spencer  

Well, revenge yes, but I have a dear friend with whom I have an ongoing debate, let’s call it that. But she is a spiritual person, Christian who believes that the most important thing in life is to be able to forgive everybody all the time, unconditionally, no matter what they’ve done. And I think, no, at some level, you do that if you think the other person was not, was in a position where they either didn’t know… better. Like she talks about Christ on the cross talking to the about, you know, forgive them because they know not what they do. Well, I think the reason, he says, because they know not what they do is that the only circumstance under which you could forgive somebody, either there, they really didn’t know better, or you know, they’re too young or too mentally incompetent or something like that. So, you can forgive them for being unable to understand. Or in a situation of duress, you might say, you can forgive them, because the circumstances were such that they, they had no effective choice. So, there are conditions under which you can forgive. But I think if you for the most part, the real responsibility we have is to, to require that others apologize and feel remorse before forgiving them. I mean, it’s a duty not to forgive, until we’ve seen in the other person, a real repentance and remorse.

Bill Skidmore  

No, I don’t think there can be genuine reconciliation without acknowledgement of responsibility, and awareness of the harm that was done. And then if one determines it’s a genuine remorse, because sometimes people express remorse to get out of hot water. It’s not necessarily if —

Metta Spencer  

it’s fake, but you I would think one would need to really sense of the other person really was hurting. For about having done it.

Bill Skidmore  

Yeah. And maybe even over a period of time to see how genuine it is. It’s not just plays ==

Metta Spencer  

I am, by the way early, I was reading, watching a video of a woman who was a specialist in early Christianity, and it’s called Patristics… this is a branch of theology, I guess, where they look at the early church. And apparently, the early church fathers also required repentance before forgiveness. They did not go around telling you forgive everybody, no matter what. That to me. That’s, that’s kind of an important point. to note.

Bill Skidmore  

Maybe there’s a continuum in some ways, like there’s people who are psychotic and do horrible things. I’m willing, obviously, to say that they didn’t know what they were doing. But that’s not the norm. And… there are different levels, even the, for instance, the frontline torturer, who maybe says, if I don’t torture, I will be tortured, I will be killed. You know, they’re in tough circumstances. And yet, one would say, well, you shouldn’t do it anyway. You’re doing to somebody that they would do to you. But then they can say, Well, yeah, well, if you don’t torture, we won’t torture you, we will torture your children. You know, there’s so many ways to coerce people and put them in these most horrific dilemmas, who I often feel rage or anger… the officials, or those who give the orders of those on whose behalf they’re actually giving an example. I remember George W Bush … the second. And there was something came up about, maybe it was the Iraq war. I know it was Iraq, war, Guantanamo, or whatever. I don’t remember the context. But he said, I sleep fine at night. And I thought, Oh, yeah, I guess you do. What about the people, the soldiers that either are living in fear of their own lives, or after they’ve done horrible things, to other human beings, they have to live with that reality for their entire life where you don’t have to, because you just gave the orders and your hands are clean. They’re… the folks that I just have the greatest derision for, because they may let others do it on their behalf and carry that burden.

Metta Spencer  

Well, you could say that for every war maker, you know, everybody, every General, … everybody who even pays taxes that they know is going to… support military… complicity with warfare is so much a part of everyday life, that it’s a gradient scale, I’m sorry to say, you know, it’s real. I mean, it’s not many people devote their entire existence to opposing being involved with a system that does harm to other people.

Bill Skidmore  

Well, we often expect that that should be what the citizens of an enemy state do. For instance, we talk about the “good German”, referring to the Germans during the Nazi era who pretended not to know, or if they did know they didn’t do anything and I think well, they lived under a totalitarian state where for them to resist carried… severe consequences. I’m not justifying what they did. But even those in some resistant, there was a German resistance. It was huge, I think like the French or Polish resistance other countries, but the… at least there’s an element of fear. It’s fascinating to me when persons who really don’t have a whole lot of fear, still remain bystanders. They still accept the state, doing horrible wrongs or whatever they are. Even in now, we live in a time where the information is so accessible to us, we can find good studies on different issues, academic journalistic, whatever, there’s still some people prefer to remain just uninvolved.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah, but I mean, look, this is a, you know, we’re really talking about more than just torture. Now. We’re talking about all kinds of political decision-making about…  what’s right and what’s wrong. I mean, the Republicans in the US right today are not going to vote for the conviction of, of Trump, for the impeachment, because there’s political gain to be had from a being. Okay, you know, that, and then they try to find an argument. I mean, now, we’re into the quicksand, you know, are we talking about more morality more, much more generally, then, then the question of torture, I want to go back to an earlier assumption that, or assertion you made that, that it’s always about trying to get the state to get people to conform to and obey the state. Because, you know, there’s other kinds of authority. And if you think about the Milgram experiment, where it wasn’t the state, but it was, it was a guy with a lab coat, who looks authoritative. So, you say This is Professor so… of the Psych department, and he’s a leading authority on this or that, and if he tells you to do something, of course, you will do it, because you want to be a cooperative, good citizen. So, this isn’t political, but it is certainly obedience. On the other hand, there’s even more than that there’s not authority, but wanting to be approved of by one’s peers. So become being party… to a particular group, can lead a person to, to make judgment errors, or to hide the truth about their even their perception. I mean, think of the Solomon Asch studies back, you know, 50-60 years ago, when Solomon Asch would get six or eight people in a row, and they were all stooges, and then the sixth, the seventh person, or so would be the real subject. So, he would draw two lines, and he’d say, which is longer this one or this one? And all six of them would give the wrong answer. And then when you get to the final one, the final person who’s the real person will also give the wrong answer. Because they, they, anybody could see how long this line is. But in order to not be considered deviant, they go along with this ridiculous thing. Well, so much of human interaction is a reflection of that kind of conformity was desired to be approved off. And it’s not political. It’s, it’s more like, I just want to be regarded as a good person. Right? Normally,

Bill Skidmore  

I remember those. I was in one of those experiments, where you, yes, in when I was doing my undergraduate degree, and I actually said what I thought not, I didn’t go along with the others. But I know I’ve seen it in other cases, too, for instance, working in organizations, and you’re in a meeting and somebody is going on and on about something you don’t understand that is confusing, but you don’t say anything because you think you’re the only one. And then after the meeting has started talking to people, you realize nobody understood it either. But we don’t want to appear, we don’t want to appear foolish. There is an interesting thing. I mean, with Milgram, and in some dispute, whether his thesis and it’s been tested in various with various variables, but basically obeying an authority and as you said, the lab coat. You know, Milgram himself was at Yale, so that carries prestige, etc. But it was been replicated all over. You’re obeying an authority to a point that you would do great harm. That’s the other thing. It wasn’t just a minor thing.

Metta Spencer  

Yeah. They thought the other person had been, they could hear them screaming in the other room, and they thought they maybe even killed the person

Bill Skidmore  

Yeah, because it would show on the meter, they’ve read the, you know, danger all that. Some, no, who walk out. Again, these antecedent conditions, you know, indoctrination in a society, of belief of in groups or groups, the threats, they also look at those who perhaps, have either been had more of an authoritarian upbringing or for whatever reason, tend to have a greater belief in authority or willingness to obey, rather than to challenge authority. And I know I used to have a button, a friend gave me and I think I wrote on it, he said, challenge authority, at least question. But there’s, whether it’s here, whether it’s a belief in authority, because authority will make the world work, right. For instance, one of the strongest reasons, job, people justify either what they do, or accepting like in the case of William Calley… in Vietnam with the My Lai Massacre, I think the strongest reason given for those who thought he shouldn’t have been punished is he was obeying orders. He was — and that loyalty to your superior in the military, or whatever authority was a higher value than not harming others. So, a lot of people carry that as a belief. And I even recall a case year ago, not that many years ago with some people who left the US military after the Iraq invasion and sought refuge in Canada, exile in Canada, and a lawyer for the federal government, when they these folks were claiming… we’re being forced to commit war crimes. And a lawyer for the Canadian government who was denying them their claim of refugee status here, said, you’re a low-level soldier, you don’t have to make those decisions. Therefore, there’s no reason to give you status where this was a moral [issue]. These were moral beings still, who did not want to create harm, honestly, I joined the military thinking I was going to be defending my country, saving us. And here I am now killing Iraqi civilians.

Metta Spencer  

I’m not surprised that the person in authority would go along with that argument. I mean, wouldn’t it historically have been considered a reasonable defense of that? You could, you could say I… was ordered to do it. And… that would be good enough, I think, and maybe until maybe the war crimes tribunals after World War Two, this really was discussed, and it was established that it’s not a defense. But you know, it’s sure is a pervasive assumption. And even today, I think there are all kinds of people would assume that it is not only true, but it’s a good, good argument. That’s all you have to say is, I was ordered.

Bill Skidmore  

Yeah, I think since the Second World War with the Geneva conventions of 1949. And, … there are additional protocols and …  quite universal, you are not to obey an illegal order. Before that… even different armies have their own codes of conduct. So, someone sometimes says No, you shouldn’t obey an illegal order. An unlawful order, rather, is probably the terminology. And others would say you have to do it. But again, then there’s the reality when you’re in the heat of battle, and you’re ordered to do it. And if you don’t do it, it could be done to you, or you will be abandoned by your comrades. You’re left with a sudden, difficult circumstance plus, you’ve also in the heat of battle, developed hatred for the enemy. You’ve seen what they’ve… killed your colleagues, your friends in uniform, and it gets very jumbled up… psychologically at the moment… there again… the soldiers were trained to degrade the enemy, it made it easier for them to say I have to be these orders because look at who we’re dealing with here is beasts. Hmm. 

Metta Spencer  

Well, I think your course is something — sounds like everybody in the world should be exposed to a lecture… covering the things that we’ve been discussing.

Bill Skidmore  

I created courses that I thought were important and most of mine focused on political violence within human rights, that was my own strongest interest. I think it matters for many reasons that we understand. Even that societies ultimately operate through coercion… some coercion is legitimate… in order to force the person to attend their trial in court, or who’s accused of a crime, whatever…  I do think we need to understand the violence that underlies a lot of what we just see as economic issues. Some students have had that own experience in their own lives, or family members tortured, perhaps even them. I did have a student who also was a guest speaker, he had been tortured badly and severely, but he wanted to talk about it, you don’t ever I’ve never just asked somebody to do it, it was more it came to my attention that they would speak or they came to speak about a more general situation, and then talked about their torture as well. But I, of course, like I said, at the outset, very careful about their own state of mind. And yes, I tell the students, this is very hard stuff, you are going to be upset. And I will have, you know, I talked about that, how to deal with what you what you encounter some of it, you may not be able to sit through — I had a student once, and I won’t give any details about them. But they come from an area we call a war zone, an area of conflict, intense conflict. They couldn’t bear the sight of blood… but they could bear the sight of skulls… I once showed a video on Rwanda. And there’s a famous scene from a church where all these skulls were piled up and the students that — I can handle that, but what I can’t, in their own personal lives, not in a political context, but in personal… abuse, sexual assault, whatever, they would be sensitive to that. So, I try to work around it. But I think, mostly, I think what I heard from people was they were glad to be informed. They obviously I had no idea about this kind of stuff… And they also — …in the student evaluations, the number one best thing I got it every year, because I’d have a lot of guest speakers, and they really appreciated hearing their story. And I asked my guest speaker said, don’t try and be academic, I do the, you know, the academic side, tell the stories. And in the stories are profound. I feel emotional. And I can remember, students feeling very emotional, but they didn’t want to not know they did. And there are victims, and they are also survivors. They are people, the people you see here have been acting and still speaking out about what was done to them and others were evil, but I was also trying to be understanding if you can’t listen to this, leave, or I would warn in the film, if something coming up, I’ll tell you close your eyes, you know, you want to be sensitive and know they all have their own different backgrounds to

Metta Spencer  

thank you so much for this. This is really very, very meaningful. We get a lot of people watching it because I think everybody needs to go through a little of this. It just as you said it, we all need to know.

Bill Skidmore  

Thank you for inviting me. I enjoy talking to you.

Metta Spencer  

I’ll probably get back to you and talk about other aspects of human rights, because you’re always there. Thank you. Glad to do that. a terrific.

Bill Skidmore  

Bye.